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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/5

  1. #1
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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/5

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, April 5

    Good Luck on day #95 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Betting props for the Masters:

    — Will Eldrick Woods make the cut? Yes -$170, No +$140

    — Will Jordan Spieth hit a ball in water on 12th hole this week? Yes +$140, No -$190

    — Most strokes recorded on any hole by any player: 8 Yes/No both -$115

    — Lowest round by any player in any round: 65.5 Over/under both -$115

    — Highest round by any player in any round: 82.5 Over/under both -$115

    — Will there be a playoff in The Masters? Yes +$235, No —$285

    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

    13) One of the basic truths of life: Baseball players get hurt a lot. Season started with 113 players on the disabled list, little less than four players per team.

    12) There were 925 sacrifice bunts in the major leagues LY, fewest of any season since 1900.

    11) When Ichiro Suzuki gets inducted into the Hall of Fame someday, it’ll a proud day for retired P Ryan Vogelsong. Ichiro was 0-15 in his career against Vogelsong.

    10) New England now has four of the first 63 picks in the NFL Draft in three weeks. This is the first time since 1998 the Patriots have two 1st-round picks and two 2nd-round picks in a draft.

    9) 80-year old Jim Harrick, who won a national title at UCLA in 1995, will be on Mark Gottfried’s staff at Cal-Northridge next winter. Gottfried was an assistant on that UCLA staff in ’95, with Lorenzo Romar and Steve Lavin.

    8) Most NCAA tournament wins since 2000:
    Kansas 49, North Carolina 48, Duke 46, Mich State/Kentucky 42

    7) Dodgers pitchers allowed 8 bases-loaded walks all of last season; they issued three in the 7th inning alone Tuesday night in Arizona.

    6) They had the par-3 tournament at Augusta National Wednesday; guys can have whoever they want caddy for them, and Jack Nicklaus had one of his grandsons caddy for him. They let the caddies hit a few shots, and the 15-year old grandson gets a hole-in-one, his first ever. Wow.

    5) Pro golfer Tony Finau also got a hole-in-one Wednesday, but he dislocated his ankle while he was celebrating the ace. He put the ankle back in place and finished his round. Was odd to see; he just reached down and put the ankle back in place.

    4) Thursday, Baltimore Ravens’ GM/coach Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh will be questioned under oath as part of the Colin Kaepernick collusion grievance.

    Wednesday, the Ravens gave QB Robert Griffin III a one-year, $1M contract for 2018.

    Maybe I watch too many movies, but I’m thinking this isn’t a coincidence.

    3) College basketball coaching carousel:
    — St Peter’s coach John Donne stays in the MAAC, but moves to Marist.
    — Rhode Island promoted assistant David Cox to head coach.
    — East Carolina signed Florida Gulf Coast coach Joe Dooley as its new coach.
    — South Dakota hired Grand Canyon assistant Todd Lee as its new coach.

    2) Cardinals led off Tuesday’s game with back/back homers off of Chase Anderson; last time the Redbirds started a game that way was when Curt Flood and Gene Freese led off with home runs off a guy named Sandy Koufax, on August 17, 1958.

    1— Colorado Rockies gave Charlie Blackmon a 6-year, $108M contract, so he is staying in the friendly confines of Coors Field and will never, ever get traded in our fantasy league.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, April 5


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    GOLDEN STATE (57 - 21) at INDIANA (46 - 32) - 4/5/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 32-43 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
    INDIANA is 45-33 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
    INDIANA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
    INDIANA is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    INDIANA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    GOLDEN STATE is 128-92 ATS (+26.8 Units) in April games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GOLDEN STATE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 4-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PORTLAND (48 - 30) at HOUSTON (63 - 15) - 4/5/2018, 8:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PORTLAND is 5-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 7-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WASHINGTON (42 - 36) at CLEVELAND (48 - 30) - 4/5/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 34-42 ATS (-12.2 Units) in all games this season.
    WASHINGTON is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
    WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 30-47 ATS (-21.7 Units) in all games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 18-41 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
    CLEVELAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 5-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BROOKLYN (25 - 53) at MILWAUKEE (42 - 36) - 4/5/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BROOKLYN is 43-34 ATS (+5.6 Units) in all games this season.
    BROOKLYN is 35-26 ATS (+6.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
    BROOKLYN is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games this season.
    BROOKLYN is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    BROOKLYN is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    BROOKLYN is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    BROOKLYN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    BROOKLYN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 72-89 ATS (-25.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in home games this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games in the second half of the season this season.
    MILWAUKEE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 86-118 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 6-3 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 9-0 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CLIPPERS (42 - 36) at UTAH (45 - 33) - 4/5/2018, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CLIPPERS are 221-276 ATS (-82.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
    UTAH is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    LA CLIPPERS are 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games this season.
    LA CLIPPERS are 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    UTAH is 9-8 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
    LA CLIPPERS is 9-8 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MINNESOTA (44 - 34) at DENVER (43 - 35) - 4/5/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 71-86 ATS (-23.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 32-46 ATS (-18.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 368-436 ATS (-111.6 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
    DENVER is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 6-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 5-5 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-05-2018 at 12:43 PM.

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, April 5


    Golden State won six of last eight games with Indiana; Warriors are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Under is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Golden State won its last three games; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as road favorites. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Pacers won five of their last six games; they’re 5-6 as home underdogs. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

    Rockets won six of last seven games with Portland; over is 7-1 in last eight series games. Blazers 2-2 vs spread in last four games in Houston. Portland won four of its last six games; they’re 5-0 vs spread in last five games as road underdogs. Over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Houston won nine of its last ten games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as home favorites. Five of their last seven games stayed under.

    Road team won last six Washington-Cleveland games; Wizards covered three of their last four visits to Ohio (under 3-1). Wizards lost six of their last eight games; they’re 11-5 as road underdogs. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Cavaliers won nine of their last ten games; they covered last three games as home favorites. Last five Cleveland games stayed under the total.

    Bucks won their last ten games with Brooklyn (7-3 vs spread); Nets are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Milwaukee. Four of last five series games stayed under. Brooklyn lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 in last six games as road underdogs. Three of their last four games stayed under. Bucks won five of their last seven games; they’re 0-10 vs spread in last 10 games as home favorites. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games.

    Clippers lost five of last seven games with the Jazz; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Utah. Three of last four series games went over. Clippers won four of their last six games; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as road underdogs. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Utah won four of its last five games; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five games as home favorites. Six of last seven Jazz games went over.

    Minnesota won its last four games with the Nuggets; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Timberwolves are 4-5 in their last nine games; they’re 2-7 in last nine games as road underdogs. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nuggets won their last three games by total of 7 points; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as home favorites. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-05-2018 at 12:44 PM.

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    NBA

    Thursday, April 5


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    Trend Report
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    Golden State Warriors
    Golden State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
    Golden State is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Golden State's last 17 games
    Golden State is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    Golden State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
    Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
    Golden State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    Golden State is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indiana
    Indiana Pacers
    Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indiana's last 18 games
    Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Indiana is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games at home
    Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
    Indiana is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
    Indiana is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games when playing at home against Golden State


    Washington Wizards
    Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
    Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
    Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
    Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Washington is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 12 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Cleveland Cavaliers
    Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Cleveland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
    Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
    Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
    Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
    Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
    Cleveland is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing at home against Washington


    Portland Trail Blazers
    Portland is 13-3-2 ATS in its last 18 games
    Portland is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 9 games
    Portland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Portland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Portland's last 15 games on the road
    Portland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
    Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games when playing Houston
    Portland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston Rockets
    Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Houston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 15 games
    Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games at home
    Houston is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Portland
    Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Portland
    Houston is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Portland
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Portland


    Brooklyn Nets
    Brooklyn is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
    Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Brooklyn is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Brooklyn's last 10 games on the road
    Brooklyn is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
    Brooklyn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Brooklyn's last 15 games when playing Milwaukee
    Brooklyn is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Brooklyn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
    Milwaukee Bucks
    Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Milwaukee is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
    Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 13 games
    Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games at home
    Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
    Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Brooklyn
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 15 games when playing Brooklyn
    Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
    Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn


    Los Angeles Clippers
    LA Clippers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Clippers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 7 games
    LA Clippers is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
    LA Clippers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Utah
    LA Clippers is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Utah
    LA Clippers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Utah
    LA Clippers is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Utah
    LA Clippers is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
    Utah Jazz
    Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
    Utah is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games
    Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Utah is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Utah's last 13 games at home
    Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
    Utah is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
    Utah is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Clippers
    Utah is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers


    Minnesota Timberwolves
    Minnesota is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Minnesota's last 23 games
    Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Minnesota is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
    Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
    Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Denver
    Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Minnesota is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Nuggets
    Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 17 of Denver's last 25 games
    Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 11 games at home
    Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
    Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    Denver is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-05-2018 at 12:45 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, April 5



    Boston @ Toronto

    Game 501-502
    April 4, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston
    117.734
    Toronto
    127.619
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Toronto
    by 10
    204
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Toronto
    by 7 1/2
    206
    Dunkel Pick:
    Toronto
    (-7 1/2); Under

    Philadelphia @ Detroit


    Game 503-504
    April 4, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    127.096
    Detroit
    121.401
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 5 1/2
    215
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 1 1/2
    210
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-1 1/2); Over

    Dallas @ Orlando


    Game 505-506
    April 4, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    114.089
    Orlando
    115.125
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Orlando
    by 1
    204
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 1 1/2
    202 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Orlando
    (+1 1/2); Over

    Miami @ Atlanta


    Game 507-508
    April 4, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    118.502
    Atlanta
    112.447
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 6
    209
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Miami
    by 8 1/2
    205
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+8 1/2); Over

    Memphis @ New Orleans


    Game 509-510
    April 4, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Memphis
    107.645
    New Orleans
    122.713
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 15
    213
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 12
    216 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-12); Under

    San Antonio @ LA Lakers


    Game 511-512
    April 4, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Antonio
    124.462
    LA Lakers
    116.895
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Antonio
    by 7 1/2
    211
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Antonio
    by 6
    208
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Antonio
    (-6); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-05-2018 at 12:46 PM.

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    NBA

    Thursday, April 5



    Total Streaks

    *The Under is 34-16-1 in the Pacers’ last 51 games.
    *The Under is 5-0 in the Cavs’ last five games.
    *The Over is 21-5 in the last 26 games between the Rockets and Blazers.
    *The Over is 13-3 in the Bucks’ last 16 games.
    *The Over is 6-1 in Utah’s last seven games.
    *The Over is 9-2 in the Nuggets’ last 11 home games.
    *The Over is 17-6 in the Wolves’ last 23 games.

    Injury of Note

    Damian Lillard is out for the Blazers tonight at Houston because of a bad ankle. The All-Start point guard is averaging 26.7 points and 6.6 assists this season. He missed a game last week because of the birth of his child and the Blazers lost to the lowly Memphis Grizzlies without him. Portland is 4-2-1 ATS without Lillard in the lineup this season and is a 10.5-point underdog against the Rockets tonight.

    Trends

    *The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
    *The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against East opponents.
    *The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
    *The Cavs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
    *The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
    *The Bucks are 8-21-3 ATS in their last 32 home games.
    *The Wolves are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games.

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    Three-year, late-season Under trend a boom for NBA bettors
    Ashton Grewal

    The Sacramento Kings are running out the corpse of Vince Carter in their starting lineup. The lack of offensive talent on the floor late in the season could be one reason for all the Unders in the league.

    It takes a special type of sports bettor to wager on NFL games in August and a dedicated NBA fan to bet on pro hoops in late March and early April. But just like NFL preseason, there are opportunities to exploit the books even with unpredictable lineups and team motivation.

    The Under is 33-25 in NBA games over the last eight days and it's not an isolated incident. The Under is 494-423-26 in March and April games since 2016. There are a few reasons for the three-year trend.

    The schedule this time of year is a little more condensed with heavier doses of teams playing on back-to-back nights. Nine of the 12 teams in action on Wednesday had played the previous night.

    The New Orleans Pelicans had a stretch last month when they played five games in six nights. The Under is 4-0 in their games since completing that congested portion of their sked. It’s a long season and a crappy time to pile playing days on the tired legs of the players.

    This is also a time when you see more bench warmers and fringe players see heavier floor time. Teams like the Houston Rockets have nothing left to play for and lottery-bound sides are looking to improve their odds with additional losses.

    We all remember the Mark Madsen game back in 2006. Giving the green light to shoot to a big man who can't isn't going to help an offense. Teams are finding new ways to decrease their chances of winning in the new collective bargaining agreement according to Dunc’d On podcast host Nate Duncan.

    It makes sense than that fewer points will be scored in games with G-League level talent. Check out the crunch-time lineups the Dallas Mavericks and Orlando Magic used on Wednesday night.

    So we know the reasons games are going Under the total late in the NBA regular season. Now let’s take a look at the best Under bets in the league right now. All Over/Under records are since the beginning March 1st.

    Indiana Pacers

    Over/Under: 4-13

    The Pacers, somewhat ironically, are playing with the slowest tempo in the league over the last 15 games. They’re offensive ranks 20th in the league and they like to shoot a lot of long 2-pointers instead of a couples steps back behind the arc. They attempted the second fewest triples per game last month.

    Sacramento Kings

    Over/Under: 5-13

    The Kings were competing with the Cavaliers for the worst defense in the league for much of the first half of the season, but things have improved. Sacramento’s defense ranked 17th in the Association in March and is allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions in the last 15 games.

    Sac-Town doesn’t have to do anything special to trot out Washington General-level of hoopers. The Kings started 41-year-old Vince Carter on Tuesday against the Phoenix Suns.

    Orlando Magic

    Over/Under: 5-12

    The Magic were averaging 105.5 points per game before the All-Star break and 98.8 since. Over the last 15 games, they’re averaging a league-worst 95.2 points per game. The problem with Orlando is that its best player Aaron Gordon is like Shawn Marion. Both great athletes but best suited to be paired with a skilled point guard to get the best out of them. Gordon doesn’t have that in D.J. Augustin.

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