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Thread: Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/2

  1. #1
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    Default Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/2

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, April 2

    Good Luck on day #92 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    More opening day payrolls in major leagues:

    24) Philadelphia Phillies $97,367,851

    23) Miami Marlins $97,595,142

    22) Cincinnati Reds $101,232,499

    21) Atlanta Braves $119,029,762

    20) Kansas City Royals $128,686,717

    19) Detroit Tigers $131,614,600

    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a quiet Easter Sunday

    13) Toronto 7, New York 4— My biggest problem with the analytics movement is that is goes out of its way to diminish the manager’s role in how a team is run. Can’t do it.

    In this game, New York led 4-3 in bottom of 8th; Toronto had men on 2nd/3rd with two out and Josh Donaldson (3-8 with 2 HR’s off Robertson) up. Justin Smoak (0-5 vs Robertson) was on deck; he had homered in his previous AB. What do you do?

    Aaron Boone decides to walk Donaldson intentionally. Smoak hits a grand slam. Welcome to the big leagues, Aaron Boone. Being a TV announcer is a lot easier.

    12) There are two basketball Hall of Fames; the Naismith Hall of Fame in Springfield, MA and the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame, in Kansas City.

    There is at least one glaring omission from the College Hall of Fame: Jerry Tarkanian.

    Tarkanian went 706-198 in his coaching career, won the 1990 national title at UNLV, made two other Final Fours. For him not be in the Hall of Fame (he is in the Naismith HOF) makes the College HOF look stupid.

    11) Some people will cite Tark’s battles with the NCAA as a reason to keep him out, to which I say this: Eddie Sutton, who was inducted into the College Hall of Fame in 2011.

    From Sutton’s Wikipedia page: “The NCAA announced at the end of the season that its investigation into the basketball program had found the school guilty of violating numerous NCAA policies.[8] The NCAA deemed the violations so egregious that it seriously considered hitting the Wildcats with the “death penalty”, which would have shut down the entire basketball program (as opposed to simply being banned from postseason play) for up to two years.”

    There is no valid reason for Jerry Tarkanian not to be in the College Hall of Fame.

    10) One more thing on the College Hall of Fame: Norm Stewart is a 2007 inductee, but he never made a Final Four, went 8-8 in first round tournament games. Seriously?

    9) When you see coaches at mid-majors getting fired these days after short coaching tenures, keep in mind that in the mid-90’s, Jay Wright went 31-51 in his first three years as Hofstra’s coach. Things turned out pretty well for him— he went 91-34 his last four years at Hofstra, before moving on to bigger and better things at Villanova.

    8) This is first time since 2004 that team spending on baseball players’ salaries will decline from the year before.

    7) Average major league payroll this season: $137,610,491.

    6) As expected, Xavier promoted assistant Travis Steele to head coach to replace Chris Mack, who jumped ship to Louisville.

    5) Of the 31 players who have 3,000 career hits, Ichiro Suzuki was 3+ years older than anyone else on the list when he got his first major league hit.

    4) A Sarasota, FL homeowner found a surprise visitor in his swimming pool Friday night – an 11-foot alligator floating in the water. The gator began swimming away as it struggled to avoid capture. A deputy managed to drag the gator out of the pool with the help of a trapper.

    3) If you had the White Sox as being the last American League unbeaten this season, you win!!!

    2) Last Big 14 team to win the national title in basketball? Michigan State, in 2000.

    1— Villanova took 40 3-pointers Saturday, only 25 2-pointers; wouldn’t be surprised if they move the college 3-point line back to where the FIBA line is.
    Last edited by Udog; 04-01-2018 at 09:42 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Monday, April 2



    Michigan @ Villanova

    Game 601-602
    April 2, 2018 @ 9:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Michigan
    79.489
    Villanova
    81.639
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Villanova
    by 2
    152
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Villanova
    by 7
    145
    Dunkel Pick:
    Michigan
    (+7); Over





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, April 2


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    MICHIGAN (33 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (35 - 4) - 4/2/2018, 9:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VILLANOVA is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VILLANOVA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VILLANOVA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
    VILLANOVA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    VILLANOVA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MICHIGAN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, April 2


    Since 1990, when a #1-seed plays lower seed for the national title, the favorite is 10-5 vs spread.

    Villanova beat Michigan 60-55 in Brooklyn in Nov 2014, teams’ last meeting.

    This is biggest spread in a national title game since 2010, when 1-seed Duke (-7.5) nipped 5-seed Butler 61-59.

    Last five national title games were all decided by 6 or fewer points, with underdog winning SU three of last four years.

    In this tournament, Michigan has played seeds #14-6-7-9-11; they’re stepping way up in class here. Wolverines finished T4 in a down Big 14 this season- they played three starters 33:00+ as they battled from behind to win Saturday night. Michigan is 16-3 outside Big 14; they’ve won 14 games in row- their last loss was Feb 6. Wolverines are #205 experience team that plays pace #324- they’re #4 team at protecting the ball. Michigan is 8-4 vs teams ranked in top 30- their opponents shoot 33% on arc (#55).

    Villanova won national title at buzzer two years ago; Wildcats are 12-1 in its last 13 NCAA tourney games- they played six guys 28:00+ in fairly easy win over Kansas Saturday. Villanova is #282 experience team that plays pace #160- they make 40% of their 3’s. Wildcats were 18-40 on arc vs Kansas, 18-25 inside arc. Wildcats are 18-0 outside the Big East, where they finished 2nd to Xavier.




    NCAAB

    Monday, April 2


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    Trend Report
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    Michigan Wolverines
    Michigan is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games
    Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan's last 5 games
    Villanova Wildcats
    Villanova is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Villanova's last 20 games


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-02-2018 at 12:46 PM.

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    NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: National Championship
    Monty Andrews

    The Wildcats have proven to be deadly from 3-point range during the tournament, if the Wolverines defense can't stop them, will they be able to keep up?

    For a tournament that provided some of the biggest moments and most stunning upsets in NCAA history, the Final Four was surprisingly short of drama. Both the Michigan Wolverines and the Villanova Wildcats cruised to double-digit victories in their respective semifinal matches, and will compete for the national championship Monday night in San Antonio. The Wolverines roared back from a seven-point halftime deficit to top Loyola-Chicago 69-57, while the Wildcats rolled to a 95-79 rout of Kansas.

    Villanova has easily been the most impressive team in the tournament - and oddsmakers have rewarded that dominance by making the Wildcats a whopping 6 1/2-point favorite to capture second NCAA tournament title in three years. Yet, despite winning all five of their March Madness games by at least 12 points, they won't be getting a pushover in the final - Michigan clamped down hard in the second half of their triumph over the fan-favorite Ramblers as they seek their first NCAA championship since 1989.

    Michigan Wolverines vs. Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 145)

    Michigan's struggles from deep vs. Villanova's incredible 3-point shooting

    The primary focus in this one will be on how Michigan's vaunted defense handles a Villanova offensive attack that has emerged as the best in the country. The Wolverines' defensive pressure is sight to behold, as Michigan held four of its five NCAA Tournament opponents below 65 points. But it won't matter how defensively adept the Wolverines are if they can't score enough points - and when it comes to converting from beyond the arc, these two teams aren't even close.

    Michigan has two days to re-learn out how to hit a 3-pointer - and given how the Wolverines performed from long range in its previous two games, head coach John Beilein had better make it a priority at practice. After going 14-of-24 from 3-point territory in a third-round rout of Texas A&M, Michigan went on to hit just 11-of-50 attempts from beyond the arc in subsequent victories over Florida State and Loyola-Chicago. And a similar showing Monday night will make this game a laugher from the start.

    Make no mistake, the Wildcats will face plenty more resistance from long range than they did in their emphatic victory over the Jayhawks, when they established a Final Four record with 18 3-pointers. But few teams have been able to tame Villanova, one of only 19 Division I teams shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc for the season. And with six different players - including all five starters - hitting multiple 3s in the Final Four, there could simply be too much firepower from deep for Michigan to handle.

    Wolverines' free-throw follies vs. Wildcats' fantastic foul shooting

    It's clear the Wolverines won't be able to claim their first national title in 29 years by trading 3-pointers with the Wildcats; Michigan was fortunate to escape with a win over the Ramblers despite making just seven of their 28 attempts from deep. But that isn't the only mismatch the Wolverines will have to deal with - Michigan has been one of the worst free-throw-shooting teams in the country this season, and that could be their undoing against a Villanova team that has been dead-eye from the line.

    Beilein has worked with his players all season in an attempt to remedy their foul-shooting woes - but between having them focus on positive outcomes to "thinking about the ones (they) love" - a suggestion made in jest - nothing has worked. Michigan is converting at a 66.2-percent clip through 40 games; only 30 Division I schools have fared worse. And despite showing signs of improvement during the tournament, the Wildcats were just 12-for-18 in the victory over Loyola-Chicago.

    Villanova hasn't needed any gimmicks or remedies; the Wildcats are one of the top-shooting teams from the free-throw line, making their foul shots at a 78-percent rate - good for ninth in the country. Villanova shot better than 82 percent in each of its previous three games before going just 5-for-7 against the Jayhawks - but they were shooting so well from 3-point range that they really didn't need the foul shots. If Michigan can't stay out of foul trouble Monday night, Villanova could run away with this one.

    Michigan's elite ball-security vs. Villanova's struggle to force TOs

    Bettors might read those first two sections and wonder if there are any reasons to take the Wolverines. And as it happens, there are. In addition to boasting one of the most formidable scoring defenses in the nation (63.0 ppg against, eighth-best in the country), Michigan is also one of the most careful teams in the country with the basketball. If the Wolverines can limit turnovers they way they have for the majority of the season, they should have an edge over a Villanova unit that hans't done well at forcing turnovers.

    The Virginia Cavaliers - remember them? - are the only team in the country better at keeping turnovers to a minimum than Michigan, which has committed just 9.2 per game. The Wolverines boasted a 17-11 turnover advantage in their triumph over the Ramblers, and have put up a plus-20 turnover margin over their previous four tournament games, averaging just nine turnovers per contest over that span. It's a major reason why they've attempted an average of three more field goals per game than their opponents.

    When you have an offense as prolific as Villanova's, you can be forgiven for showing a few cracks on defense. But with this game expected to be a slower-paced affair than the Wildcats are used to, it's worth noting that they don't generate many turnovers, averaging just 13 per game - ranking outside the top 150 among Division I teams. Villanova has also lost the turnover battle in each of its previous three tournament games; extending that streak to four could very well cost the Wildcats the national title.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-02-2018 at 12:47 PM.

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    NCAA Tournament Championship Game betting preview and odds: Michigan vs Villanova

    (3) Michigan Wolverines vs (1) Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 145.5)

    Villanova is one win away from its second national championship in three seasons, but its final hurdle appears to be a daunting one. Michigan owns the longest winning streak in the nation at 14 games and will attempt to upset the Wildcats when the teams square off Monday in San Antonio in the NCAA Tournament title game.

    Villanova was a good 3-point shooting team in 2015-16 when it won the national championship (highlighted, of course, by Kris Jenkins' championship-clinching 3-pointer at the buzzer), but the Big East champions have taken it to a new level this season. The Wildcats set a Final Four record with 18 3-pointers in Saturday's semifinal victory over Kansas and have made at least 13 3-pointers in four of their five wins in this event. “It’s our best offensive team. We’ve had some good ones. This is definitely our best," said Villanova coach Jay Wright, whose squad hopes to hand Michigan its first loss since Feb. 6. The Wolverines defeated upstart Loyola Chicago on Saturday, rallying from a 10-point second-half deficit to move to the brink of their first title since 1989.

    TV: 9:20 p.m. ET, TBS

    BETTING STATS:



    LINE HISTORY: Villanova opened as high as 7-point chalk and money coming in on the Wolverines saw that line drop down to -6.5 at most books heading into game day. The total hit the betting boards at 146 and has been bet down slightly to 145.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY: A team on a fourteen game win streak will battle a team that may have played the sharpest Final Four game ever. Michigan has utilized strong on ball defense to offset rusty half court offense. Yet they started to get a rhythm against Loyola with transition field goals off of turnovers. Could that be the momentum they need to jump start their offense? If not Villanovas Jay Wright may have his second title in three years." - Zack Cimini.

    ABOUT MICHIGAN: The Wolverines won their final six regular-season games, followed by a 3-for-3 run in the Big Ten Tournament and a smooth surge through the first five games of the Big Dance, although they have yet to defeat a team seeded higher than No. 6 in this event. They have given up more than 63 points only once in this tournament and harassed Loyola into 1-of-10 3-point shooting and 17 turnovers, while Moritz Wagner (24 points, 15 rebounds) handled the bulk of the burden offensively. Charles Matthews added 17 points, but fellow starting guards Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Zavier Simpson combined for seven points on 2-of-17 shooting and must be better against the Wildcats' talented backcourt.

    ABOUT VILLANOVA: With Wooden Award finalist Jalen Brunson leading the way, the Wildcats are the top scoring team in the nation (86.8 points), which provides a nice contrast with the Wolverines, who are eighth nationally in points allowed (62.9). Brunson had 18 points against Kansas, second on the team to Eric Paschall, who recorded 24 points on 10-of-11 shooting (4-of-5 3-pointers), while Omari Spellman chipped in 15 points and 13 rebounds and Donte DiVincenzo had 15 points off the bench. Mikal Bridges, potentially the top NBA prospect in this year's Final Four, had 10 points against the Jayhawks and is capable of erupting from 3-point range, as the junior has drained multiple 3s in 13 of the last 14 games.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
    * Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten.
    * Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
    * Under is 3-0-1 in Wolverines last 4 games following a ATS win.
    * Under is 5-1 in Wolverines last 6 non-conference games.

    CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 67 percent of bettors taking the favorites from Villanova, while 76 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-02-2018 at 12:48 PM.

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