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Thread: Saturday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/31

  1. #1
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    Default Saturday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/31

    Trends and Indexes

    Saturday, March 31

    Good Luck on day #90 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

    Highest opening day payrolls in major leagues:

    1) Red Sox $223M

    2) Giants $203M

    3) Cubs $183M

    T4) Dodgers, Nationals both $180M

    6) Angels $170M

    7) Bronx $167M

    **********

    Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

    13) Aaron Calixte scored 17 ppg for a Maine basketball team that went 6-26, playing in a weak America East Conference, the #25 Division I conference (out of 32) in America.

    Joe Cremo scored 18 ppg, David Nichols 14.5 ppg for an Albany team that went 22-10, but only 10-6 in America East- they lost in first round of AE tourney two of last three years, but the Great Danes have made the tournament five times since 2006.

    All three of these players have bolted their schools before their senior years, looking for greener pastures. Maine fired their coach after the season; Calixte has been pursued by big-name schools such as Florida State.

    Albany has had four players transfer in the last week; something is amiss. Great Danes have won 133 games the last six years; when four players bolt a winning program at the same time, there is stuff going on that the general public can’t see.

    12) I’m an Albany graduate (yes, I graduated from college!!!); I put myself thru school as student manager of the basketball team, but we were D-3 back then. Very good team, but D-3 is worlds apart from D-1. To see the Great Danes become a successful team at the D-1 level has been fun- coach Will Brown is a good guy who has built a consistent, winning program, but this isn’t good.

    When your two best returning players jump ship at the same time, its not a good sign.

    11) 29% of major leaguers on Opening Day (254 players) weren’t born in this country.

    10) A 36-year old accountant who hadn’t played in anything but beer league hockey games in over a decade played the last 14:01 for the Blackhawks Thursday, after both Chicago goalies got hurt in the game, a 7-2 win over Winnipeg. Scott Foster stopped all seven shots he faced.

    9) Oakland Raiders released P Marquette King, the 4th-highest paid punter in the NFL.

    8) Temple basketball coach Fran Dunphy will step aside after next season and be succeeded by current assistant Aaron McKie, who played for the Owls.

    7) Guy who owns a casino in Las Vegas has a $25,000 bet on Michigan to win the national title, which nets him $1,000,000 if the Wolverines win the championship. Derek Stevens owns the D Casino in Las Vegas and is a Michigan alum— he made the bet at the Golden Nugget.

    Funny thing though, I know a guy who is a very knowledgeable sports bettor and Golden Nugget won’t let him bet more than $1,000 on a game. Go figure.

    6) Makes no sense to me that Ron Gardenhire is a major league manager and Joe Girardi isn’t.

    5) Cincinnati International Airport is actually located in Kentucky.

    4) Rusty Staub is the only major leaguer who got 500+ hits for four different teams.

    3) Houston Astros have used four outfielders on defense this spring, when lefty hitters Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison and Justin Bour were batting. This defense leaves the entire left side of the infield open- it apparently will only be used when the bases are empty.

    2) Royals lost C Salvador Perez with a knee injury that he got while carrying luggage up stairs. He is expected to be out 6-8 weeks

    1) ESPN reported how the Las Vegas Raiders opened negotiations with a guy who owns the 7,000-yard Bali Hai golf course in Las Vegas, so they can convert the golf course into stadium parking for the new domed stadium in the desert. That guy is Billy Walters, who is currently in federal prison on insider trading charges. Complicated.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Saturday, March 31



    Loyola-Chicago @ Michigan

    Game 811-812
    March 31, 2018 @ 6:06 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Loyola-Chicago
    69.813
    Michigan
    79.446
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Michigan
    by 9 1/2
    133
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan
    by 5
    128 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Michigan
    (-5); Over

    Kansas @ Villanova


    Game 813-814
    March 31, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas
    74.546
    Villanova
    71.553
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Villanova
    by 7
    149
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Villanova
    by 5
    155 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Villanova
    (-5); Under





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Saturday, March 31


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    LOYOLA-IL (32 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN (32 - 7) - 3/31/2018, 6:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    KANSAS (31 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (34 - 4) - 3/31/2018, 8:45 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
    VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 113-79 ATS (+26.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
    VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
    KANSAS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS is 58-30 ATS (+25.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
    KANSAS is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    VILLANOVA is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
    VILLANOVA is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Saturday, March 31


    Since 1987, Final Four teams seeded #7 or worse are 2-5-1 vs spread in national semifinals, and that counts a 2011 game between a #8 and #1-seed, so its really 1-4-1 vs spread. Loyola is on an unconscious roll, with three tourney wins by total of four points, before they whacked K-State in regional final. Ramblers are 21-1 since Jan 6; they’ won 14 games in a row. Loyola is #137 experience team that plays pace #315. Michigan is 15-3 outside Big 14; they’ve won 13 games in row- their last loss was Feb 6. Wolverines are #205 experience team that plays pace #326- they’re #3 team at protecting the ball.

    Since 1987, when two #1-seeds play in the national semifinals, underdogs are 8-2 vs the spread. Last six years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in national semis. Villanova is 11-1 in its last dozen NCAA tourney games- they pounded Oklahoma by 44 in national semis in 2016. Wildcats are 17-0 outside Big East, beating West Virginia/Texas Tech of Big X in last two games. Villanova is #282 experience team that plays pace #160- they make 40% of their 3’s. Kansas won 12 of its last 13 games; they’re 15-2 outside Big X. Jayhawks are #154 experience team that plays pace #150. Kansas opponents shoot only 32.7% on the arc (#40).




    NCAAB

    Saturday, March 31


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LOYOLA-CHICAGO @ MICHIGAN
    Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Michigan is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
    Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
    Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Loyola-Chicago's last 9 games
    Michigan Wolverines
    Michigan is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
    Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Michigan's last 9 games

    VILLANOVA @ KANSAS
    Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Villanova is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas's last 6 games
    Villanova Wildcats
    Villanova is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
    Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Villanova's last 19 games
    Villanova is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas
    Kansas Jayhawks
    Kansas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas's last 6 games
    Kansas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Villanova


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-31-2018 at 11:52 AM.

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    NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
    Monty Andrews

    You won't find many weaknesses on the Villanova Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game.

    Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-5, 128.5)

    Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Wolverines' elite ball security

    The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were staring at insurmountable odds to reach the Final Four heading into the NCAA Tournament - and yet, here they are, just two wins away from the most improbable collegiate title in history. But the Ramblers still have work to do as they take on the favored Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night in San Antonio. Loyola-Chicago will need to do plenty right to advance to Monday's title game - starting with taking extra-good care of the basketball.

    Hot shooting and timely defense has been the trademark of the Ramblers' run to the Final Four in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in more than three decades - but those proficiencies have also masked significant struggles when it comes to turnovers. Loyola-Chicago upended Kansas State 78-62 in Elite Eight action despite losing the turnover battle 15-6 - an extension of its regular-season woes, when it finished outside the top 250 nationally in percentage of possessions leading to a TO (17.3).

    It isn't enough that the Wolverines boast one of the top scoring defenses in the nation (63.1 points per game against, eighth-fewest in the country). Michigan also takes care of the ball as well as any team in Division I. The Wolverines commit an average of 9.2 turnovers per contest; only Virginia (8.5) has been better. Michigan will be content to play a plodding, slow-paced game and take advantage of the Ramblers' turnovers - and given past history, there could be a lot of them.

    Ramblers' dynamic discipline vs. Wolverines' free-throw aversion

    Loyola-Chicago is one of only four No. 11 seeds to reach the Final Four - and the South Region champions don't intend to stop there. But oddsmakers aren't so sure the tournament Cinderella has much magic left in it; Bet365 has the Ramblers installed as a +900 longshot to win the championship. That said, all four teams have played well enough to win the title - including Loyola-Chicago, which can prevail against the imposing Wolverines if it continues to be one of the country's most disciplined teams.

    It's hard enough to boast a top-five scoring defense as the Ramblers do (62.4 ppg against) - but to do so without sending opponents to the free-throw line is truly impressive. Loyola-Chicago is one of only three NCAA teams to limit opponents to fewer than 10 made free throws per game, and its 13.9 attempts surrendered per game are sixth-fewest in the country. And that stinginess has extended to the NCAA Tournament, with the Ramblers allowing an average of 11.3 free-throw attempts in their first four games.

    That number probably won't climb much - if at all - against a Wolverines team that was positively dreadful at getting to the foul line during the season, averaging just 11.5 makes (312th overall) on 17.4 attempts (271st). And even if Michigan can find a way to draw fouls against the Ramblers, there's no guarantee it will capitalize; the Wolverines have shot an abysmal 66.2 percent from the free-throw line so far this season, good for 321st overall. If this one comes down to free throws, Loyola-Chicago has the edge.

    Villanova Wildcats (1) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (1) (+5, 155.5)

    Villanova's free-throw bonanza vs. Jayhawks' foul-shot foibles

    While the left side of the NCAA Tournament bracket was full of stunning upsets and unpredictable finishes, the right side played out exactly as the bracketeers imagined - with the top seeds prevailing in the East and Midwest Regions, respectively, to set up a 1-vs.-1 Final Four matchup Saturday in San Antonio. But oddsmakers consider the Villanova Wildcats more worthy of a No. 1 seed, making them a comfortable fave vs. the Kansas Jayhawks thanks in some part to a considerable edge at the free-throw line.

    You won't find many weaknesses on the Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game while ranking sixth in field-goal percentage (49.9) and 19th in 3-point success rate (40 percent). The Wildcats are also as automatic as they come when it comes to free throws, converting at a 78-percent clip through 38 games - good for eighth in the country. If Kansas puts Villanova on the line, the result could be devastating.

    The same most certainly cannot be said for the Jayhawks, who have been a below-average free-throw-shooting team for most of the season (70.5 percent, 215th overall) - and it nearly derailed their national title hopes twice, as they shot just 69.2 percent in a four-point win over Seton Hall and 63.6 percent in a four-point triumph over Clemson. They can ill afford a similar showing Saturday against a Villanova team that has proven to be one of the top-shooting teams in the nation.

    Wildcats' mediocre assist prevention vs. Jayhawks' sensational ball distribution

    Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are the oddsmakers' choice to claim the national championship, installed at -105 on Bet365; Michigan is next at +260, while the Jayhawks sit third at +350 despite being the top seed in the Midwest Region. But while Villanova is far and away the top remaining team in the tournament, it's not perfect - and if the Jayhawks can take advantage of the edge they have in the ball distribution department, they might be in line for the upset.

    It might seem like nit-picking, but the Wildcats have not been great at defending opposing passers. Villanova surrenders 13.6 assists per game - ranking 189th overall - and surrenders an assist on 53.1 percent of opposing shots made, placing it outside the top 200 in that category. And good passing was the key to beating the Wildcats during the regular season; Villanova surrendered an average of 16.5 assists while allowing a helper on 56.4 percent of opponents' made shots in their four losses.

    If Jayhawks bettors are looking for reason for optimism, this is the place to start. The Jayhawks average a whopping 16.9 assists per contest, the 13th-best mark in the country. And while their 0.564 assists per made field goal ranks just 77th overall, they're a top-20 team in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.43). And that sensational ball movement is heating up as the tournament goes on, with Kansas recording 52 assists over its past three games. Look for the Jayhawks to spread the ball around at will Saturday night.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-31-2018 at 11:53 AM.

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