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Thread: Friday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/30

  1. #1
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    Default Friday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/30

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, March 30

    Good Luck on day #89 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    Opening Day attendance figures:

    — Cubs @ Marlins: 32,151 (mostly Cub fans)

    — Cardinals @ Mets: 44,189, including Phil/Evan Pivnick

    — Twins @ Orioles: 45,469

    — Astros @ Rangers: 47,253

    — Red Sox @ Rays: 31,042

    — Angels @ A’s: 27,764. Hey the A’s are tied for first place. This was their first daytime home opener since 1994.

    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Wrapping up Opening Day and other stuff

    13) I used to be a minor league official scorer, long time ago (back when I had hair); if I kept score of games today, I’d code the field 3-9 instead of players, to account for shifting in the field.

    For instance, Houston used four OF’s vs Joey Gallo Thursday; he flied out to 3B Alex Bregman, who was playing in left field. Traditional scoring would say F5, since Bregman plays 3B, but I’d say F7, since Gallo hit the ball to left field.

    I’d supplement my scorebook with written notes on who actually caught the ball, but thats how I’d score a game now. Just think it would be more accurate.

    12) Rays 6, Red Sox 4— Chris Sale allowed no runs, one hit in six IP (92 PT), then the Boston bullpen blew the lead in the 8th inning, allowing four walks, two hits, with Denard Span’s 3-run triple the big hit.

    11) Dodger TV guy Joe Davis said there were 90 mound visits (90!!!) in Game 7 of the World Series last year. the limit this year will be six per team; ummm, thats a little different.

    10) Cubs 8, Marlins 4- Roof was open at Marlins’ Park Thursday; it was open for six home games out of 78 LY and Miami was 0-6 in those games. Marlins are not a MLB-quality team right now- they’re going to lose a lot of games.

    For the record, Ian Happ was the first batter this season and he hit a home run.

    9) If you care about such things, Josh Donaldson led MLB last year, 15 1st-inning homers. Giancarlo Stanton was next, with 14. Stanton hit one in the first inning in Toronto Thursday, and then he hit another one in the 9th inning.

    8) Astros 4, Rangers 1— When Joey Gallo batted with bases empty, Houston played four guys in OF with no fielders on left side of the infield. Actually, Altuve was in the OF too, in short RF, so they had five guys in the outfield.

    7) McDonald’s All-American Darius Bazley decommitted from Syracuse, becoming the first top high school prospect to choose turning pro in the G League, where he’ll make $26,000, instead of spending a few months in college. Maybe he’ll get a small shoe contract.

    Bazley is a 6-9 kid from the Cincinnati area; he’ll sign a pro contract when he turns 18 in June. Big gamble on his part— if he were to get hurt, then what? If he gets hurt in college, he’s still in college and has the school’s resources at his disposal. He won’t be property of an NBA team next year, just the G-League team. He’ll be eligible for the 2019 NBA Draft.

    6) White Sox 11, Royals 4— Matt Davidson hit three homers for Chicago; maybe I should’ve picked him up in my fantasy league, back when he was available. Whoops.

    5) RIP Rusty Staub 73, who played 23 years in the big leagues, breaking in with the Houston Colt .45’s in 1963. Le Grand Orange, as he was known in Montreal, made six All-Star teams and had a career OB% of .362 with 292 career homers. He owned a popular restaurant in Manhattan for years after he retired from playing.

    Think about how times have changed; in 1963, there was a baseball team named after a gun and an NBA team called the Baltimore Bullets.

    4) Braves 8, Phillies 5— Phils led this game 5-2 in 8th, but Atlanta rallied, and Nick Markakis hit a walk-off homer to send Braves fans home happy.

    Atlanta catcher Tyler Flowers is the first player this season to leave a game with an injury— he suffered an oblique injury in the second inning.

    3) Orioles 3, Twins 2 (11)— Not 100% sure, but Zach Duke may very well be the first pitcher ever to strike out four batters in an inning on Opening Day- he struck out four Orioles in the 7th inning.

    Adam Jones hit a walk-off homer in the 11th inning to send everyone home happy, after Orioles blew a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning.

    2) Brewers 2, Padres 1 (12)— Bill Schroeder is a former big league catcher who is a really good analyst; Padres had two on, one out in the 7th inning Thursday with Milwaukee leading 1-0, and Schroeder says more than once (three times??) that reliever Josh Hader can get Austin Hedges out with a slider, almost like he is trying to use telepathy to get him to throw it.

    Eventually, Hader throws the slider and strikes Hedges out.

    1— Louisville QB Lamar Jackson threw 59 passes, took snaps under center in front of reps from all 32 NFL teams Thursday, but he wouldn’t run a 40-yard dash, because everyone knows he is fast enough to play QB and he ain’t interested in being a wide receiver. Good for him.

  3. #3
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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Friday, March 30


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    SAN FRANCISCO (22 - 16) at N TEXAS (19 - 18) - 3/30/2018, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    N TEXAS is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    N TEXAS is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    IL-CHICAGO (20 - 15) at N COLORADO (25 - 12) - 3/30/2018, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, March 30


    Game 3, best-of-3 series (series tied, 1-1)
    San Francisco won 8 of its last 11 games but was just 9-30 on arc in Denton Wednesday, after going 14-33 in Game 1 win. No one on USF played 30:00+ Wednesday, after four starters went 35:00+ in Monday’s win. Dons are #264 experience team that plays pace #234- they lost five of last seven true road games. North Texas is 5-8 in its last 13 games but won four of last five at home; they’re #287 experience team that plays pace #201 and are 9-7 outside C-USA. UNT doesn’t play any seniors; they used two guys 35-38 minutes Wednesday. Mean Green won by 18 Wednesday despite going only 2-18 on arc.

    Ill-Chicago won 12 of its last 16 games, winning last eight true road games; they’re 6-8 outside Horizon League, 3-12 vs teams ranked in top 200. Flames are #286 experience team that plays pace #21- they turn ball over 20.8% of time. Northern Colorado won nine of its last 11 games, five in row at home; they made 17-30 on arc in Wednesday’s 99-80 home win vs Sam Houston, playing only six guys double figure minutes in a game they trailed in early in 2nd half. UIC played three starters 30:00+ in their win at Liberty Wednesday- they held Liberty to 0.80 ppp.




    NCAAB

    Friday, March 30


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    Trend Report
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    SAN FRANCISCO @ NORTH TEXAS
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    North Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    UIC @ NORTHERN COLORADO
    UIC is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    UIC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Northern Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Northern Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-30-2018 at 11:07 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Friday, March 30



    San Francisco @ North Texas

    Game 519-520
    March 30, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    57.742
    North Texas
    59.629
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    North Texas
    by 2
    146
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    North Texas
    by 4 1/2
    140
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+4 1/2); Over

    Illinois-Chicago @ Northern Colorado


    Game 781-782
    March 30, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Illinois-Chicago
    56.922
    Northern Colorado
    60.173
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Northern Colorado
    by 3
    152
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Northern Colorado
    by 9 1/2
    157 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Illinois-Chicago
    (+9 1/2); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-30-2018 at 11:08 AM.

  5. #5
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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Saturday, March 31



    Loyola-Chicago @ Michigan

    Game 811-812
    March 31, 2018 @ 6:06 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Loyola-Chicago
    69.813
    Michigan
    79.446
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Michigan
    by 9 1/2
    133
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Michigan
    by 5
    128 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Michigan
    (-5); Over

    Kansas @ Villanova


    Game 813-814
    March 31, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas
    74.546
    Villanova
    71.553
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Villanova
    by 7
    149
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Villanova
    by 5
    155 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Villanova
    (-5); Under





    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Saturday, March 31


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LOYOLA-IL (32 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN (32 - 7) - 3/31/2018, 6:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
    MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
    LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    LOYOLA-IL is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS (31 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (34 - 4) - 3/31/2018, 8:45 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
    VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
    VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 113-79 ATS (+26.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
    VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
    VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
    VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
    KANSAS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS is 58-30 ATS (+25.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
    KANSAS is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
    KANSAS is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    VILLANOVA is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
    VILLANOVA is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Saturday, March 31


    Since 1987, Final Four teams seeded #7 or worse are 2-5-1 vs spread in national semifinals, and that counts a 2011 game between a #8 and #1-seed, so its really 1-4-1 vs spread. Loyola is on an unconscious roll, with three tourney wins by total of four points, before they whacked K-State in regional final. Ramblers are 21-1 since Jan 6; they’ won 14 games in a row. Loyola is #137 experience team that plays pace #315. Michigan is 15-3 outside Big 14; they’ve won 13 games in row- their last loss was Feb 6. Wolverines are #205 experience team that plays pace #326- they’re #3 team at protecting the ball.

    Since 1987, when two #1-seeds play in the national semifinals, underdogs are 8-2 vs the spread. Last six years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in national semis. Villanova is 11-1 in its last dozen NCAA tourney games- they pounded Oklahoma by 44 in national semis in 2016. Wildcats are 17-0 outside Big East, beating West Virginia/Texas Tech of Big X in last two games. Villanova is #282 experience team that plays pace #160- they make 40% of their 3’s. Kansas won 12 of its last 13 games; they’re 15-2 outside Big X. Jayhawks are #154 experience team that plays pace #150. Kansas opponents shoot only 32.7% on the arc (#40).

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