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Thread: Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/13

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    Default Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/13

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, March 13

    Good Luck on day #72 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    — 109 different golfers have won a PGA tournament since the last time Eldrick Woods won.

    — Neil Walker gets $4M for one year from the Bronx Bombers.

    — This is first time in 21 years the Spurs will have a losing road record.

    — There are 30 sets of brothers playing Division I basketball this season.

    — ESPN is running an all-night marathon related to the college basketball tournament; it is a little like a bizarre ESPN variety show. It is oddly entertaining.

    — I wish that kids who enter the NBA Draft but aren’t selected would be allowed to go back to their college team, no harm done. Maybe that can happen soon.


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) Been a rough sports year for the Pac-12; they went 1-8 in bowl games last fall, and now got only three teams in March Madness, two of them in play-in games. USC was shunned, but maybe that was because of the FBI stuff.

    Maybe if more people could watch the Pac-12 Network (hint, hint), they’d get screwed over less on Selection Sunday.

    12) Creighton-Kansas State is really interesting, because the Bluejays’ best player is Marcus Foster, who played the first two years of his college career at…….Kansas State.

    11) Did agent Scott Boras cost Royals’ 3B Mike Moustakas $38.5M this winter?

    There are stories on the Interweb that Boras turned down a 3-year, $45M deal with the Angels, who later signed Zach Cosart instead. Moustakas, who also turned down the $17.5M qualifying offer from the Royals, wound up signing back with Kansas City for $6.5M for 2018.

    Oy.

    10) College basketball coaching carousel:
    — Lorenzo Romar returns to Pepperdine; he coached the Waves from 1996-99.
    — Cal-Northridge hires former NC State coach Mark Gottfried.

    9) Goalie Alex Nedeljkovic became only the 13th goalie in AHL history to score a goal when he found an empty net in Charlotte’s 7-3 win over Hartford last week.

    8) When Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield went to the NFL Combine, he was interviewed by 11 different teams (15:00 each). Would be curious how similar the interviews were.

    7) When Richard Sherman signed with the 49ers over the weekend, he represented himself, saving the 3% agents normally get. Sherman saved roughly $210,000 by doing that, but did he get himself the best deal possible?

    Writer Mke Florio points out that if he signed the same deal with the Lions as he did with the 49ers, Sherman would’ve paid $1,176,500 less in state taxes. Maybe he wanted to stay in the NFC West; only he knows for sure.

    6) Basketball teams that run the Princeton offense generally practice all different kinds of layups for eight minutes in every practice; why doesn’t everyone do this?

    Seems like that would be an important skill to have, to be creative close to the basket.

    5) Providence lost in the Big East finals Saturday night; all three of their tournament games went to overtime, which doesn’t happen very often.

    4) Good grief, I’m tired of the Masters commercials; they started in freakin’ January, before the Super Bowl. Its a golf tournament on a really nice course, we get it. Enough already.

    3) Listening to Nevada coach Eric Musselman Sunday night, he kind of threw St Mary’s under the bus as far as scheduling goes.

    Nevada added four games to their schedule as late as August (URI, Texas Tech, TCU, Davidson) after Musselman read how the Selection Committee would stress road games this season. Wolf Pack didn’t win the Mountain West tournament, but they did get the league’s first at-large bid since 2015.

    St Mary’s apparently refused to schedule better teams, even turning down home/home series. Sunday, they paid for it.

    2) San Diego Padres have a shortstop prospect named Fernando Tatis Jr who they’re very high on; his dad Fernando Tatis is famous for one thing— on April 23, 1999, he hit two grand slams in the same inning, for the Cardinals in Dodger Stadium.

    Not only that, but both grand slams were against the same pitcher- Chan Ho Park. Eight RBI in one inning is a record that likely will never be broken.

    1— Doug Gottlieb tweeted this Sunday night, about the St Mary’s snub:

    “St Mary’s not getting in is the reason Gonzaga will leave the WCC”

    Gonzaga is likely to bolt the WCC soon, much like Wichita State left the MVC last summer. But where will the Zags go? Please don’t tell me the Big East.

    Gonzaga is located in Spokane, WA, which is roughly 30 miles from the Idaho border. How in the name of Rand McNally can a school 30 miles from Idaho be in the freakin’ Big East???

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    68 need-to-know betting notes for 68 NCAA Tournament teams
    Monty Andrews

    New voice, same tradition. As always, let's kick this off with just how difficult it is for a low seed to get far in the NCAA Tournament: no 16-seed has ever knocked off a No. 1 seed in the opening round, and only eight No. 15's have upset their second-seeded counterparts (though it has happened three times in the past six years). Only nine teams seeded 13th or worse have survived the opening weekend, and just one team seeded No. 12 or lower - the 2002 Missouri Tigers - has lasted to the Elite Eight.

    As for the famed Final Four? Only one double-digit seed - the 2016 Syracuse Orange as a No. 10 - has ever made it that far.

    Now that you're well versed on the history of longshots, let's examine one key betting trend for all 68 teams in the tournament:

    1 SEEDS

    Virginia (31-2 SU, 20-9 ATS, 10-20 O/U): The Cavaliers are once again one of the best Under plays in the nation, going above the total just twice in 11 true road games. But that's what happens when you surrender just 52.8 points per game during the regular season - 4 1/2 points fewer than the next closest team, and 8 1/2 points fewer than the No. 3-ranked defense in the country.

    Villanova (30-4 SU, 22-12 ATS, 23-11 O/U): The Wildcats were one of the best Over options in the country in their own arena, going 11-2 O/U at home - including each of their final seven contests at The Pavilion, a streak that saw them average a sizzling 90 points per game. Not surprisingly, Villanova covered in six of those games.

    Kansas (27-7 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 16-16-1 O/U): For everything that the Jayhawks do well, getting to the free-throw line - and converting - isn't one of them. Kansas attempted just 501 foul shots during the regular season - ranking 322nd out of 351 Division I schools - and made only 350 of them, also good for 322nd overall.

    Xavier (28-5 SU, 21-12 ATS, 18-14-1 O/U): The Musketeers showed real mettle away from Cintas Center, covering the spread in eight of 11 true road games. But Xavier was a much stronger Over play in its own barn during the regular season, going above the total 12 times in 18 home games compared to a 5-6 O/U mark on the road.

    2 SEEDS

    Cincinnati (30-4 SU, 16-14-1 ATS, 11-20 O/U): The Bearcats were the only team other than Virginia to allow fewer than 58 points per game (57.3) - and they really turned up the defensive pressure on the road, allowing no more than 62 points in any of their final nine away games during the regular season.

    Purdue (28-6 SU, 15-17-1 ATS, 15-17-1 O/U): The Boilermakers are the top 3-point shooting team in the tournament, connecting on 42 percent of their attempts during the season. But they played some of their worst basketball down the stretch, covering just one of their final 13 games - including three SU losses in games in which they were favored.

    Duke (26-7 SU, 20-11 ATS, 17-14 O/U): The Blue Devils took care of business at both ends of the court, finishing the regular season as the only team in the nation ranked in the top six in scoring offense (85.1 ppg) and rebounding (42.0 rpg). Duke also ended the ACC campaign as a strong Under play, going below the total in six straight.

    North Carolina (25-10 SU, 19-14-1 ATS, 19-15 O/U): It was a streaky end to the season for the Tar Heels, who had a five-game cover streak sandwiched between two three game cover-less stretches. On the plus side, North Carolina led all of Division I in average rebounding margin at plus-10.7, edging out Michigan State (plus-10.4).

    3 SEEDS

    Tennessee (25-8 SU, 18-13 ATS, 13-18 O/U): Keeping the Vols off the line and inside the arc will be the key to success; Tennessee ranks 39th nationally in foul shooting (75.8 percent) and 49th in 3-point success rate (38.1 percent) but sit well outside the top 250 Division I schools in 2-point shooting at just 47.4 percent.

    Michigan (28-7 SU, 21-11-1 ATS, 15-16-2 O/U): The surging Wolverines caught fire offensively down the stretch, surpassing their season scoring average in eight of their final nine games heading into the Big Dance; not surprisingly, they went 6-1-2 O/U in that span while covering in all but one of those contests.

    Michigan State (29-4 SU, 15-16-2 ATS, 16-16 O/U): The Spartans were an offensive force this season, leading the nation in assists per game (19.3) while boasting the third-best scoring margin (plus-16.2); yet, despite its offensive success, Michigan State managed just two Overs in nine true road games this season compared to an 11-5 O/U mark at home.

    Texas Tech (24-9 SU, 13-15-1 ATS, 13-16 O/U): The Red Raiders' normally-solid defense stumbled at the end of the regular season, allowing an average of 78 points over the final four games - 13.5 more than their season average. That resulted in a stretch of four straight Overs, each going above by more than eight points.

    4 SEEDS

    Auburn (25-7 SU, 19-11 ATS, 15-15 O/U): The Tigers stumbled to the finish line, failing to cover in four of their final five games - including a pair of SU losses as a favorite. But this team knows how to generate offense from the foul line - it led the nation in made free throws (605) while ranking 11th in attempts (767).

    Arizona (27-7 SU, 14-18-2 ATS, 16-17 O/U): Plenty of eyes will be on Wildcats big man Deandre Ayton, who averaged an impressive 22 points and 15.2 rebounds over his final five regular-season contests. Yet, despite Ayton's hot streak, Arizona covered just twice in that span while going Under the total four times in those five games.

    Wichita State (25-7 SU, 12-18 ATS, 20-10 O/U): If you're looking for a trendy Over play heading into the Tournament, look no further than the Shockers. They reeled off 10 consecutive Overs before seeing their streak come to a halt in their regular-season finale against a Cincinnati team that boasts the second-best scoring defense in the country.

    Gonzaga (30-4 SU, 14-16-1 ATS, 15-16 O/U): The Bulldogs have been one of the safer early-round bets come tournament time, covering in five of their previous eight March Madness openers (while falling just 3 1/2 points short of making it six of eight last season.) They have also gone Under in five of their past eight tournament kickoffs.

    5 SEEDS

    West Virginia (24-10 SU, 15-15 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Few teams work the offensive glass better than the Mountaineers; their 14.2 offensive rebounds per game ranked fourth nationally, while they hauled in nearly 35 percent of all available offensive boards during the season - the eighth-best rate in the country.

    Kentucky (24-10 SU, 17-17 ATS, 12-13 O/U): Remember that four-game losing skid earlier in the season - the Wildcats' longest since 2009? Neither do they. Kentucky won four of five to close out the regular season, with an average margin of victory of 16 points in those four triumphs; all five games went Over.

    Ohio State (24-8 SU, 15-15 ATS, 9-21 O/U): The Buckeyes had one of the strongest Under slants of any team in the country this season, but ended the year with a flourish - going above the total in three of their final four contests. They also failed to cover in four of their final five contests to finish a dead-even 15-15 ATS.

    Clemson (23-9 SU, 17-12 ATS, 15-14 O/U): Only eight teams were better defenders on 2-point shots than the Tigers, who held foes to 43.9 percent from inside the arc. Clemson was also one of the best home covers in the NCAA, going 10-3 ATS at Littlejohn Coliseum - though two of those non-covers came in their final three home games.

    6 SEEDS

    Miami (22-9 SU, 11-15 ATS, 13-13 O/U): It was a tale of two seasons for the Hurricanes, at least from a cover standpoint. Miami was positively dreadful in its own building, failing to cover over their final eight home games. Contrast that to the Hurricanes' strong road play; they were 8-4 ATS in 12 games away from Watsco Center.

    TCU (21-11 SU, 16-13-2 ATS, 21-10 O/U): The Horned Frogs kept the points all year long, finishing the regular season as one of only five teams to post 20 or more Overs. TCU was particularly prolific in its own arena, boasting a 13-4 O/U mark on the strength of a 56.9-percent effective field goal rate that ranks 13th nationally.

    Houston (26-7 SU, 18-10-1 ATS, 13-16 O/U): The Cougars were a bettor's dream at home, going 8-2-1 ATS in 11 games at Hofheinz Pavilion. Houston also enters the tournament as a strong Over option, going above the total in five of their final seven games - including two of three in the AAC Tournament.

    Florida (20-12 SU, 15-15-1 ATS, 14-16 O/U): The Gators really tightened things up to close out the regular season, cashing the Under in eight of their final 10 games. And they're one of the most careful teams with the basketball in all of Division I, having committed the fourth-fewest turnovers (305).

    7 SEEDS

    Texas A&M (20-12 SU, 13-16 ATS, 15-14 O/U): The Aggies were relentless in the post as the only team in the nation ranked in the top six in total rebounds (41.3) and blocked shots per game (5.9). But they come into the NCAA Tournament in a bit of a lull, having covered just twice in their previous seven games.

    Arkansas (23-11 SU, 17-16-1 ATS, 18-15 O/U): The Razorbacks racked up the Overs down the stretch, going above the number in six of their final eight games. But Arkansas will need to be better at keeping opponents off the line; foes made 17.4 foul shots on 24 attempts per game, both ranking in the bottom-25 nationally.

    Nevada (27-7 SU, 16-14-3 ATS, 17-15-1 O/U): The Mountain West Conference powerhouse spread the ball around like few other teams in Division I, sporting a 1.63 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks second in the country. But Nevada sputtered to the finish line, covering just one of their final six games.

    Rhode Island (25-7 SU, 16-13-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Few teams covered as regularly at home as the Rams, who made good on 10 of their 14 games at Ryan Center. But Rhode Island managed just two covers over its final five games, a stretch that included three straight-up losses as a favorite.

    8 SEEDS

    Seton Hall (21-11 SU, 16-16 ATS, 19-12 O/U): The Pirates flirted with a top-25 ranking for part of the season but couldn't make their free throws count; they were the only Big East Conference team to shoot below 70 percent from the line. Seton Hall finished the year with eight Overs over their final 10 games.

    Creighton (21-11 SU, 14-16 ATS, 16-14 O/U): The Bluejays shot well from just about everywhere this season, but were especially prolific inside the arc - knocking down 59.4 percent of their 2-point attempts, the fourth-best rate in the country. Creighton enters March Madness with four Overs in its past five games.

    Missouri (20-12 SU, 16-15 ATS, 12-19 O/U): After major defensive lapses in losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky, the Tigers ratcheted up the D over their final three games, going Under in all three; they have seven Unders in their past 10 games overall. Their minus-3.0 turnover differential ranks 330th in Division I.

    Virginia Tech (21-11 SU, 17-11 ATS, 14-14 O/U): Few teams enter the NCAA Tournament as a hotter Under option than the Hokies, who have gone below the total in nine consecutive games. Only nine Division I schools shot better from two-point territory than Virginia Tech, which connected at a 49.8-percent clip from that range.

    9 SEEDS

    Alabama (19-15 SU, 17-15-1 ATS, 12-21 O/U): Betting on the Crimson Tide to go below the total at home would have made you a very rich wagerer this past season; Alabama went just 3-12 O/U at Coleman Coliseum, though two of those Overs came in Alabama's final three home contests.

    N.C. State (21-11 SU, 13-12 ATS, 14-11 O/U): The Wolfpack finished just outside the top 50 nationally in field-goal percentage (47.0) but struggled on the boards, pulling down just 69.9 percent of available defensive rebounds - good for 305th in the country. They also ranked 300th in blocks against per game (4.0).

    Kansas State (22-11 SU, 14-16 ATS, 11-18-1 O/U): The Wildcats go into March Madness as one of the worst Over options of any team in the tournament - and this was especially true at home, where they surpassed the number just four times all season. Kansas State also ranked 340th in rebounding (30.1).

    Florida State (20-11 SU, 15-13-1 ATS, 17-12 O/U): The Seminoles are sputtering at the moment, at least from a bettor's perspective; they've covered just twice in their previous 10 games - and one of those covers came by a half-point. They also went Under in four of their final five true road games entering the tournament.

    10 SEEDS

    Texas (19-14 SU, 15-14 ATS, 14-14-1 O/U): Sharing the basketball is not the Longhorns' forte; they produce just 0.47 assists per made field goal, ranking among the 25 worst teams in the country in that category. Texas did, however, convert the W/O combo in three of its final four games.

    Butler (20-13 SU, 15-17 ATS, 19-13 O/U): The Bulldogs knocked down 77.1 percent of their free throws, tied for 20th nationally. But they were positively putrid on the road this season, covering just twice in 10 true away encounters; they also failed to cover either of their games in the Big East Tournament.

    Providence (21-13 SU, 14-18 ATS, 15-16-1 O/U): As much attention as the Friars get for going to overtime in three straight Big East Tournament games, don't overlook the fact that they covered all three - and are 5-1 SU in their past six games. But Providence averages just 6.4 made 3s per game, second-fewest in the conference.

    Oklahoma (18-13 SU, 10-20 ATS, 18-12 O/U): Sensational Sooners guard Trae Young recorded 11 point-assist double-doubles this season; Oklahoma went 9-2 SU in those contests, but have dropped two in a row. Oklahoma was one of the worst road covers in Division I, going just 2-9 ATS.

    11 SEEDS

    Syracuse (20-13 SU, 14-17 ATS, 14-17 O/U): The Orange were frustratingly inconsistent entering March madness, alternating Overs and Unders over their final eight games. Syracuse's 47.1 percent adjusted field goal rate ranks 14th out of 15 teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and among the worst 30 teams in the nation.

    San Diego State (22-10 SU, 20-10 ATS, 14-14-2 O/U): The Aztecs streaked their way into the NCAA Tournament, winning nine consecutive games while covering the spread in eight of them. San Diego State placed five players in double figures in scoring, but none of them shot better than 38.5 percent from beyond the arc.

    UCLA (21-11 SU, 16-16 ATS, 18-14 O/U): The Bruins will likely live and die by their rebounding average; they finished 15th in the country in defensive boards per game (28.5). Look for some high-scoring affairs from UCLA, which went 7-3 O/U in 10 true road games this season.

    Loyola-Chicago (28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS, 12-17 O/U): The Ramblers are rumbling into tournament week on a defensive roll, posting five consecutive unders while allowing more than 54 points just once in that span. Loyola-Chicago is one of the top road cover teams in the field of 68, going 8-3-1 ATS.

    St. Bonaventure (25-7 SU, 15-14 ATS, 16-13 O/U): The Bonnies weren't exactly a friendly sort this season, ranking outside the top 300 in fewest fouls per game (20.0) with 22 foul-outs on the year. But St. Bonaventure has covered five consecutive times when the spread has been two or fewer points.

    Arizona State (20-11 SU, 14-15-2 ATS, 15-14-2 O/U): The Sun Devils were a dud when it came to road covers, converting just twice with a pair of pushes in 10 true away games. But their second-half offense was no joke, as they finished third in the nation in points per game after the half (44.5).

    12 SEEDS

    Murray State (26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS, 14-14 O/U): The Racers made Under bettors incredibly happy down the stretch, going below the total in six of their final seven games. And Murray State limited opponents to just 9.8 assists per game during the season, seventh-fewest in all of Division I.

    New Mexico State (28-5 SU, 6-2-2 ATS, 3-7 O/U): The Aggies have been a nightmare for opposing offenses, holding opponents to a 45.5-percent effective field-goal rate; only five other teams were stingier. New Mexico State is also a behemoth on the boards, averaging 41.6 rebounds per game - fourth-most in the nation.

    Davidson (21-11 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 13-18 O/U): When it comes to taking care of the basketball, the Wildcats do it better than anyone - their 1.80 assist-to-turnover ratio is significantly better than runner-up Nevada (1.65). And Davidson is rolling at the right time, with covers in six of its previous seven games.

    South Dakota State (28-6 SU, 19-9 ATS, 15-13 O/U): The Jackrabbits have won 11 straight coming into this one, covering eight times over that span. But was a tale of two seasons from an Over/Under standpoint, as South Dakota State posted just two Overs in 10 home games while going 10-2 O/U in 12 true road contests.

    13 SEEDS

    Buffalo (26-8 SU, 16-12-3 ATS, 19-12 O/U): The Bulls have been favored by at least 7 1/2 points in each of their past six games - and they've come through with big performances, covering five times over that stretch. But they'll need to curb their enthusiasm come tournament time - their 21.2 fouls per game rank in the bottom 20 nationally.

    Marshall (24-10 SU, 20-11 ATS, 16-15 O/U): The Thundering Herd have peaked heading into March Madness, making good on four consecutive covers - including a pair of SU wins as an underdog of 5 1/2 points or more. Only four teams finished the year with a higher blocked shots average than Marshall (5.9).

    Charleston (26-7 SU, 15-13-1 ATS, 17-12 O/U): The Cougars ratcheted up the offense late in the season, scoring 80 or more points in eight of their final 10 games; not surprisingly, they converted the Over eight times in that stretch. Charleston also takes great care of the ball, ranking fourth nationally at 9.6 turnovers per game.

    UNC Greensboro (27-7 SU, 17-9-1 ATS, 11-16 O/U): The Spartans have bucked the trend on low totals, going Under in six of their last seven games when the number is 135 or lower. The catalyst: UNC Greensboro holds opponents to fewer than 21 made field goals per game, third-fewest in Division I.

    14 SEEDS

    Bucknell (25-9 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Distance means everything to the Bison on offense - they rank outside the top 200 in Division I in 3-point shooting (34.1 percent) but are a top-25 team from inside the arc (55.6 percent). They also sit third in the country in total free-throw attempts (844)

    Montana (26-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS, 19-12 O/U): The Grizzlies were the top Over play among Big Sky teams and carried that trend into the conference tournament, exceeding the total in all three games by at least 10 1/2 points. But Montana makes just 5.5 3-pointers per contest, good for 330th in the country.

    Wright State (25-9 SU, 18-13-1 ATS, 12-20 O/U): Don't let the Raiders' Over/Under record fool you - nine of those Overs came in true road games, while another two occurred in neutral-site games; they were a combined 11-7 O/U away from home. Wright State also ended the season with four straight covers.

    Stephen F. Austin (28-6 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): The Lumberjacks are the NCAA's ultimate ball hawks - they ranked first in the nation in forced turnovers per game (20.0) and were the only team to average double-digit steals (10.3). But they also committed a whopping 743 fouls, second-most in Division I.

    15 SEEDS

    Georgia State (24-10 SU, 19-11 ATS, 16-14 O/U): The Panthers converted the cover-Under combo three straight times in the Sun Belt Tournament after going an unbelievable 10-2 O/U in their previous 12 contests. But free-throw woes could be their undoing; they have shot just 67.6 percent from the line, good for 300th overall.

    Iona (20-13 SU, 15-14 ATS, 16-12-1 O/U): The Gaels provided plenty of excitement for opposing teams' fans this past season, exceeding the total in nine of their 12 true road games - including their final three away contests of the campaign, in which they went Over by an average of 30.2 points.

    Lipscomb (23-9 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U): The Bison lost major steam after halftime in 2017-18, allowing more than 43 second-half points per game - ranking in the bottom 15 nationwide in that category. They did, however, rank in the top 10 in Division I in free-throw makes (580) and attempts (811).

    CS Fullerton (20-11 SU, 18-9 ATS, 8-19 O/U): The Titans were an interesting betting option, particularly away from home; they went 9-4 ATS in 13 true road games, and six of their eight Over conversions came away from Titan Gym. They also hit the cover-Under combo in all three games of the Big West Tournament.

    16 SEEDS

    LIU Brooklyn (18-16 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U): The Blackbirds were one of only three teams in the Northeast Conference to shoot below 70 percent from the free-throw line (69.6), but shot a modestly better 71.2 percent in the conference tournament. LIU Brooklyn's 27.4 rebounds per game rank just outside the top 40 in the country.

    Radford (22-14 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U): The Highlanders have gone below the total in each of their previous four lined games, including all three contests they have played in the month of March. Radford has made just two Tournament appearances prior to this year, and lost both by a combined 79 points.

    Penn (24-8 SU, 13-14 ATS, 17-10 O/U): Those Quakers were a lively bunch away from The Palestra, going 12-4 O/U in 16 true road and neutral-site games on the season. But rebounding has been a hit-and-miss task for Penn, which ranks fifth nationally in defensive boards (29.0) but are 286th in offensive rebounding (8.7).

    Texas Southern (15-19 SU, 6-1 ATS, 4-3 O/U): The SWAC champions won the conference title in style, averaging 87.3 points per game while going Over the total in all three tournament contests. The Tigers also come into the tournament having made the second-most free throws in the country (618).

    UMBC (24-10 SU, 3-1-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): The Retrievers certainly lived up to their name this season - their plus-2.7 average turnover differential ranked inside the top 40 among Division I schools. But free-throw shooting has been a major problem for UMBC, which has hit just 65 percent of its foul shots.

    North Carolina Central (19-15 SU, 5-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): The Eagles enter their third NCAA Tournament on a five-game cover streak, and are 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 neutral-site games. But North Carolina Central ranks outside the top 300 in 3-point makes (6.0) and attempts (18.0) per game.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-13-2018 at 11:59 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, March 13



    LIU-Brooklyn @ Radford

    Game 543-544
    March 13, 2018 @ 6:40 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LIU-Brooklyn
    52.348
    Radford
    52.449
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LIU-Brooklyn
    Even
    132
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Radford
    by 4 1/2
    139
    Dunkel Pick:
    LIU-Brooklyn
    (+4 1/2); Under

    St Bonaventure @ UCLA

    Game 545-546
    March 13, 2018 @ 9:10 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    St Bonaventure
    63.547
    UCLA
    65.095
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    UCLA
    by 1 1/2
    148
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    UCLA
    by 3 1/2
    155 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    St Bonaventure
    (+3 1/2); Under

    Northern Kentucky @ Louisville

    Game 547-548
    March 13, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Northern Kentucky
    57.894
    Louisville
    68.423
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Louisville
    by 10 1/2
    155
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Louisville
    by 7
    146
    Dunkel Pick:
    Louisville
    (-7); Over

    Wagner @ Baylor

    Game 549-550
    March 13, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Wagner
    52.391
    Baylor
    59.867
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baylor
    by 17 1/2
    148
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baylor
    by 15
    138 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baylor
    (-15); Over

    Vermont @ Middle Tennessee

    Game 551-552
    March 13, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Vermont
    58.170
    Middle Tennessee
    61.671
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Middle Tennessee
    by 3 1/2
    132
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Middle Tennessee
    by 6
    139
    Dunkel Pick:
    Vermont
    (+6); Under

    Boston College @ Western Kentucky

    Game 553-554
    March 13, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston College
    63.452
    Western Kentucky
    64.413
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Western Kentucky
    by 1
    153
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Western Kentucky
    by 5
    162 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston College
    (+5); Under

    FL-Gulf Coast @ Oklahoma State

    Game 555-556
    March 13, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    FL-Gulf Coast
    53.412
    Oklahoma State
    67.774
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oklahoma State
    by 14 1/2
    164
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oklahoma State
    by 10
    156 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oklahoma State
    (-10); Over

    Hampton @ Notre Dame

    Game 557-558
    March 13, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hampton
    43.788
    Notre Dame
    68.376
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Notre Dame
    by 24 1/2
    159
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Notre Dame
    by 22
    150
    Dunkel Pick:
    Notre Dame
    (-22); Over

    SE Louisiana @ St Mary's

    Game 559-560
    March 13, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    SE Louisiana
    55.660
    St Mary's
    67.524
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    St Mary's
    by 12
    134
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    St Mary's
    by 15
    142
    Dunkel Pick:
    SE Louisiana
    (+15); Under

    Rider @ Oregon

    Game 561-562
    March 13, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Rider
    54.899
    Oregon
    63.328
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oregon
    by 8 1/2
    154
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oregon
    by 11 1/2
    163
    Dunkel Pick:
    Rider
    (+11 1/2); Under

    NC-Asheville @ USC

    Game 563-564
    March 13, 2018 @ 11:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NC-Asheville
    51.208
    USC
    70.675
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    USC
    by 19 1/2
    158
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    USC
    by 17 1/2
    150
    Dunkel Pick:
    USC
    (-17 1/2); Over

    East Washington @ Utah Valley

    Game 567-568
    March 13, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    East Washington
    53.316
    Utah Valley
    62.854
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Utah Valley
    by 9 1/2
    154
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Utah Valley
    by 7
    146 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Utah Valley
    (-7); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-13-2018 at 12:00 PM.

  5. #5
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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Tuesday, March 13


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    LONG ISLAND (18 - 16) vs. RADFORD (22 - 12) - 3/13/2018, 6:40 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    ST BONAVENTURE (25 - 7) vs. UCLA (21 - 11) - 3/13/2018, 9:10 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    UCLA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.
    ST BONAVENTURE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    N KENTUCKY (22 - 9) at LOUISVILLE (20 - 13) - 3/13/2018, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    N KENTUCKY is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    N KENTUCKY is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    N KENTUCKY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    N KENTUCKY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    N KENTUCKY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    WAGNER (23 - 9) at BAYLOR (18 - 14) - 3/13/2018, 7:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    VERMONT (27 - 7) at MIDDLE TENN ST (24 - 7) - 3/13/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIDDLE TENN ST is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIDDLE TENN ST is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIDDLE TENN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    MIDDLE TENN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    BOSTON COLLEGE (19 - 15) at W KENTUCKY (24 - 10) - 3/13/2018, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON COLLEGE is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    W KENTUCKY is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
    W KENTUCKY is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    W KENTUCKY is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
    W KENTUCKY is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
    BOSTON COLLEGE is 120-87 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road games since 1997.
    BOSTON COLLEGE is 120-87 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road lined games since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    FLA GULF COAST (23 - 11) at OKLAHOMA ST (19 - 14) - 3/13/2018, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OKLAHOMA ST is 120-84 ATS (+27.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
    OKLAHOMA ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    FLA GULF COAST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    FLA GULF COAST is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
    FLA GULF COAST is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    HAMPTON (19 - 15) at NOTRE DAME (20 - 14) - 3/13/2018, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NOTRE DAME is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    SE LOUISIANA (22 - 11) at ST MARYS-CA (28 - 5) - 3/13/2018, 10:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ST MARYS-CA is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1997.
    ST MARYS-CA is 81-112 ATS (-42.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    RIDER (22 - 9) at OREGON (22 - 12) - 3/13/2018, 10:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OREGON is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
    OREGON is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    OREGON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 160 to 169.5 since 1997.
    OREGON is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
    OREGON is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    OREGON is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
    OREGON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
    OREGON is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
    OREGON is 8-28 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    UNC-ASHEVILLE (21 - 12) at USC (23 - 11) - 3/13/2018, 11:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    USC is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    USC is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
    USC is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    E WASHINGTON (20 - 14) at UTAH VALLEY ST (22 - 10) - 3/13/2018, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    E WASHINGTON is 76-50 ATS (+21.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-13-2018 at 12:01 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, March 13


    Radford (-4) vs LIU
    LIU won its last five games, Radford won its last seven; Blackbirds finished T4 in NEC- they want to play fast (#39 pace). Radford plays slow (#346 pace); they finished T2 in Big South. LIU is 2-3 vs teams ranked in top 200; their SOS is #317- both their guards are sophomores. Radford was last in NCAA in ’09; their G’s are frosh/senior. Blackbirds were in NCAAs in 2011-13, going 0-3. Radford was last in NCAA’s in ’09. Last seven years, underdogs are 8-4-1 vs spread in 16-seed play-in games. NEC teams are 3-2 in play-in games; Big South teams are 2-1.

    UCLA (-3.5) vs St Bonaventure
    St Bonaventure played in this arena Jan 3, losing by 10 to the Dayton Flyers; they’re in NCAA’s for first time since ’12. Bonnies finished 2nd in A-14 this year; they’re #32 experience team, with pair of senior G’s- they won 13 of last 14 games, are 10-2 outside A-14, 7-4 vs top 100 teams. UCLA is #263 experience team; they play pace #57, and finished 3rd in Pac-12. Bruins lost three of last five games; they’re 9-3 outside Pac-12, 12-9 vs top 100 teams- they shoot 38.3% on arc and take lot of them. UCLA’s PG is a junior. Favorites are 7-7 vs spread in 11-seed play-in games, 4-0 the last two years.

    Wednesday
    Texas Southern (-4) vs North Carolina Central

    Texas Southern started this season 0-13 with a ridiculous streak of guarantee games against big-name teams; 11 of the 13 teams are ranked in top 120. Tigers are in NCAA’s for 4th time in five years; they’re coached by former Indiana coach Davis, start frosh/soph G’s. TSU won its last seven games, North Carolina Central won its last five. NCC finished 6th in MEAC; they play slow (#320) pace, TSU plays fast (#35). Eagles start two freshman G’s. NCC is 16-11 vs teams ranked below #200- they beat SWAC’s Southern 80-67. MEAC teams are 3-4 in play-in games; SWAC teams are 1-7.

    Arizona State (-1) vs Syracuse
    Syracuse won its first NCAA tourney game last seven times they were in, with last first-round loss in ’06 to Texas A&M, but they were usually a very high seed. Orange did get to Final Four as a 10-seed two years ago. Syracuse finished T10 in ACC this year; they play slow (#342) pace, are 3-5 in last eight games- their bench plays fewest minutes in country- they have no senior starters. Arizona State went 8-11 in Pac-12 after being 12-0 at Christmas; they lost five of last six games, start three seniors. Sun Devils play fast (#36) pace. ASU is 10-9 vs top 100 teams; Syracuse is 5-9 vs top 50 teams.

    Tuesday’s other tournaments
    To me, these games are a crapshoot; there is no way of knowing which teams will come to compete, and which teams will just go through the motions.

    Louisville lost five of its last seven games to fall off bubble; they lost seven of last nine games vs top 100 teams. Cardinals are 10-3 outside ACC, with all three losses to top 30 teams. Northern Kentucky isn’t a top 30 team, but they won eight of last ten games, won Horizon regular season title; Norse lost by 6 at Texas A&M in their highest profile game.

    Baylor lost four of its last five games; Bears are 8-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with seven wins by 17+ points. Wagner won the NEC by two games; they lost by 21 at Seton Hall, by 44 at Missouri in their high profile games. Seahawks won 14 of last 18 games; they turn ball over 19.7% of time- they foul a lot- their opponents get to line 5th-most of any team in country.

    Middle Tennessee lost its last two games after an 11-game win streak, got hosed by the NCAA committee; they start three seniors who are 80-22 the last three seasons. Blue Raiders lost in Dallas Friday; they play pace #262. Vermont lost America East title game at home Saturday, a bitter disappointment- quick turnaround for both teams. Catamounts play pace #340- they’re experience team #27 that is 1-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 4-10-4-2 points.

    Western Kentucky lost C-USA title game by a point Saturday; they lost three of last five games but get chance at a home game against an ACC squad here. Hilltoppers beat Purdue, lost by 8 to Villanova in the Bahamas tourney in November- can they contain’s BC’s guards? Boston College is 10-3 outside the ACC; they won two games in ACC tournament last week, beating NC State.

    Oklahoma State went 10-2 vs non-conference schedule #309, which gave the committee an excuse to screw them over; Cowboys went 8-10 in tough Big X, beating Kansas twice- they also beat Florida State by a point in Florida. Question is: Will they pout about their snub or play to win this tournament? Florida Gulf Coast split its last six games, allowing 90+ points in all three losses; Eagles are 6-8 outside A-Sun, losing by 10-5-13-20 points vs top 100 teams.

    Notre Dame, when healthy, is a top 25 team; they’re healthy now. Irish are 7-4 in their last 11 games; they’re 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, four wins by 18+ points. Question is how much will Colson play, as opposed to resting his legs for the NBA? Hampton won 10 of last 11 games, before losing MEAC final; they lost by 36 to Xavier, 34 to Virginia in their high-profile games.

    St Mary’s is playing in the NIT because they schedule too many home games against teams like SE Louisiana. Gaels are 4-3 in last seven games- they’re #21 experience team that played #285 pre-conference schedule. Question is: How much do they want to keep playing? They start three seniors. SE Louisiana won nine of its last ten games; they lost by 36 at Notre Dame, by 23 at Tulane.

    Oregon won five of last seven games but got smoked by 20 by USC Friday in Pac-12 semis; Ducks are #278 experience team that wasn’t on the bubble, so they weren’t disappointed Sunday- they’re 12-2 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Rider is 7-5 outside MAAC; they lost by 26 to Xavier, by 4 to Providence in their high profile games. Broncos are the second-worst free throw shooting team in the country.

    USC doesn’t have a lot of depth; they got screwed over Sunday, how will they react? After playing Oregon/Arizona in Vegas last week, will they care about NC-Asheville? Trojans’ opponents have the longest possession of anyone in country. Asheville lost by 26 at St Mary’s, 31 at Clemson, 3 at Vanderbilt in their high profile games. Bulldogs are #40 experience team in country- they shoot the 3 very well (39.1%).

    Eastern Washington lost Big Sky final late Saturday night, which snapped their 8-game losing streak; they lost by 19 to Seattle of WAC in December. Eagles shoot 38.6% on arc, are 2-5 vs top 100 teams this year- they won at Stanford. Utah Valley played Kentucky/Duke on consecutive days to start season; Wolverines won their two games vs Big Sky teams this year by 13-8 points. UVSU is the #9 experience team in the country.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-13-2018 at 12:01 PM.

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    NCAAB

    Tuesday, March 13


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WAGNER @ BAYLOR
    Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Baylor is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

    NORTHERN KENTUCKY @ LOUISVILLE
    Louisville is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville's last 6 games at home

    VERMONT @ MIDDLE TENNESSEE
    Middle Tennessee is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Middle Tennessee is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

    BOSTON COLLEGE @ WESTERN KENTUCKY
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston College's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games on the road
    Western Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    Western Kentucky is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games

    HAMPTON @ NOTRE DAME
    Notre Dame is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame's last 5 games

    FLORIDA GULF COAST @ OKLAHOMA STATE
    Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games

    EASTERN WASHINGTON @ UTAH VALLEY
    Eastern Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    Eastern Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Utah Valley is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
    Utah Valley is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

    UCLA @ ST. BONAVENTURE
    UCLA is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of UCLA's last 6 games
    St. Bonaventure is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games

    RIDER @ OREGON
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Rider's last 7 games
    Rider is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
    Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Oregon is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

    SAINT MARY'S-CALIFORNIA
    Saint Mary's-California is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Saint Mary's-California's last 10 games at home

    UNC ASHEVILLE @ USC
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of USC's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of USC's last 5 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-13-2018 at 12:02 PM.

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    Tuesday's NCAA Tournament First Four betting preview and odds


    UCLA’s junior guard Aaron Holiday averages a Pac 12-best 20.3 points, 5.8 assists and drains 43.3 percent from 3-point range.

    The NCAA Tournament tips off Tuesday night with a pair of play-in games - the NCAA definitely doesn't want you to call them "play-in" games but they are definitely play-in games. The battle of potential No. 16 seeds has LIU - Brooklyn taking on Radford and St. Bonaventure and UCLA will battle for the right to take on Florida as a No. 11 seed in the Big Dance.

    First Four games to be played at University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

    (16) LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds vs (16) Radford Highlanders (-4.5, 138.5)

    March Madness Betting Breakdown: No. 16 Radford vs. No. 16 LIU Brooklyn
    Radford (-4) and LIU Brooklyn battle in Tuesday's play-in game to see which No. 16 seed advances to the Round of 64.

    Two programs looking for their first NCAA Tournament victory meet when LIU Brooklyn takes on Radford in the First Four on Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, with the winner moving on to face top seed Villanova two days later in the East Region at Pittsburgh. The Highlanders won their last seven contests, including the Big South title game, while the co-16th seeded Blackbirds are on a five-game win streak that ended with a Northeast Conference championship.

    LIU Brooklyn is in the field for the seventh time - the first since making it three straight years (2011-13) - and the NEC’s second-leading scorer Joel Hernandez (20.9) has been the go-to player, including a 32-point explosion in the championship game victory over Wagner. The Blackbirds are coached by Derek Kellogg, who is in his first season after spending nine years at Massachusetts where he took the Minutemen to the Big Dance once. Radford, in the tournament for the first time since 2009 and third overall, won its championship game in dramatic fashion as freshman guard Carlik Jones drained a long 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Liberty 55-52. “Everybody’s shocked because nobody believed in us but Radford,” Highlanders junior forward Ed Polite Jr. told reporters. “We played with that chip on our shoulder the whole year.”

    TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

    LINE HISTORY: Radford opened as 3.5-point favorites and they have been bet up to the current pointspread of -4.5. The total hit betting boards at 137 and steady action on the Over has pushed that number up to 138.5.

    BETTING STATS:



    ABOUT RADFORD: The Highlanders have only two players averaging in double figures and Polite leads the way in points (13.5), rebounds (7.7) and steals (1.9), but he was just 5-for-20 from the floor the last two games. Jones is the only other double-digit point producer at 11.8 and averaged 14.5 in the Big South Tournament, including 13 in the final to go along with six assists and five rebounds. Sophomore forward Devonnte Holland contributed 11 points and seven boards in the final and sophomore guard Travis Fields Jr. averaged 11.5 in the last two.

    ABOUT LIU BROOKLYN: Hernandez, a senior guard, also contributes 5.9 rebounds and three other players average at least 10 points for the Blackbirds - who were second in the league in scoring (77.5). Junior guard Raiquan Clark (17.4 points, team-high 7.1 rebounds) connects on 55.7 percent of his shots, while sophomore backcourt mate Julian Batts scores 10 per contest. Sophomore guard Jashaun Agosto (11.7 points) tops the team in assists (4.1), although he must rebound after going 5-of-28 from the field over his last three contests.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Blackbirds are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
    * Highlanders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
    * Under is 4-0 in Blackbirds' last 4 overall.
    * Under is 4-0 in Highlanders' last 4 overall.

    CONSENSUS: The early consensus data shows 61 percent of bettors taking the points with Brooklyn, while 54 percent of wagers are on the Under.




    (11) St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs (11) UCLA Bruins (-3.5, 155)

    March Madness Betting Breakdown: No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 11 St. Bonaventure
    UCLA (-3.5) faces St. Bonaventure in Tuesday's play-in game to see which No. 11 seed will advance to the Round of 64.

    UCLA makes its fifth trip to NCAA Tournament in six years and looks to win at least two games for the fourth straight time when it begins play against dangerous St. Bonaventure on Tuesday in the First Four at Dayton, Ohio - in a battle of 11th seeds to open the East Region. The Bruins lost three of their last five games, but gave red-hot Arizona all it could handle before losing in overtime at the Pac-12 semifinals.

    St. Bonaventure, which won 13 games in a row before losing to Davidson in the Atlantic-10 semifinals, set a program record for victories in a regular season (24) and is tied with the 1969-70 team that made the Final Four for the most overall (25). The matchup could come down to guard play as both teams boast talented backcourts that can put up plenty of points, dish the ball and drain long-range shots. UCLA’s junior guard Aaron Holiday averages a Pac 12-best 20.3 points, 5.8 assists and drains 43.3 percent from 3-point range, while the senior duo of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley for the Bonnies combined to score almost 40 per contest and have connected on 177 tries behind the arc between them. The survivor will travel to Dallas where it will take on sixth-seeded Florida in the first round on Thursday.

    TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV

    LINE HISTORY: UCLA opened as 3.5-point favorites over the upstart Bonnies and as of Tuesday mornign that number has yet to move. The total hit betting boards at 153 and has been bet up two full points to 155.

    BETTING STATS:



    ABOUT UCLA: Holiday was held to 15 points on 5-of-20 shooting from the field by Arizona, but averaged 28.2 points in his previous five games and scored at least 29 five times this season after producing 12.3 per contest as a sophomore. Thomas Welsh, a 7-0 senior, had a big Pac-12 Tournament while averaging 17.5 points along with 14 rebounds in two games and the Bruins will need that again to make a run. Kris Wilkes, a 6-8 guard who was named to the Pac-12’s All-Freshman team, is second on the team in scoring (13.8).

    ABOUT ST. BONAVENTURE: Adams, who also leads the team in assists (5.4), steals (1.5), averages 19.8 points while connecting on 45.7 percent beyond the arc. Mobley made 14 shots from long-range in the A-10 Tournament and boasts 102 of 292 career triples this season while averaging 18.5 points in his second season with the Bonnies. Production in the paint will be needed to open up the perimeter and Courtney Stockard (12.9 points, 6.4 rebounds) along with fellow junior forward LaDarien Griffin (8.7, team-best 6.5 boards) can provide that.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Bonnies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
    * Bruins are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
    * Under is 5-1 in Bonnies' last 6 non-conference games.
    * Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 non-conference games.

    CONSENSUS: The early consensus shows 61 percent of bettors siding with the favorite UCLA Bruins, while 67 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-13-2018 at 12:03 PM.

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