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Thread: Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/12

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    Default Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/12

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, March 12

    Good Luck on day #71 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Six interesting first round pointspreads:

    — Kentucky -6 vs Davidson

    — Clemson -5.5 vs New Mexico State

    — Tennessee -13 vs Wright State

    — Kansas -15.5 vs Penn— Lowest spread in 1-16 game since UNC-Vermont in 2012.

    — Seton Hall -2 vs NC State

    — Michigan -11.5 vs Montana


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Initial thoughts on the field of 68

    13) When I first saw the brackets, it upset me that USC was left out; they’re a very good team and surely deserved to get in, right? Same with Oklahoma State and to a lesser extent, Louisville.

    Then I read something Pat Forde of Yahoo! Sports posted on Twitter:

    “Louisville out. USC out. Oklahoma State out. What do they have in common? Part of the federal investigation of college hoops.”

    That actually made me feel better, that there was a reason those teams got left out, but still don’t think Syracuse belonged in, but they are in, so we move on despite that.

    12) Turns out Davidson’s win over Rhode Island knocked Notre Dame out of the field of 68.

    11) Middle Tennessee State won Conference USA, the #12 league in country, but lost in their conference tournament; the Blue Raiders played #13 non-conference schedule in the country, losing to USC by 5, Miami by 3- they beat Vandy, Ole Miss, Murray State, but they get left home.

    10) Texas Southern deserves special mention; coached by Mike Davis, who replaced Bob Knight at Indiana, the Tigers won the SWAC tourney, after starting this season 0-13.

    In November/December, Texas Southern played guarantee games at:
    Gonzaga-Ohio St-Syracuse-Kansas-Clemson-Oregon-Baylor-Wyoming-TCU-BYU

    Texas Southern may not be a great team, but their players probably pack really well, and their accountants are really happy, because all those guarantee games pay a lot of bills.

    9) Something to ponder when the Sweet 16 rolls around: looking back over the last 12 NCAA tournaments, the eventual national champ went 21-3 vs spread on the first weekend, so look for teams who were impressive on the first weekend to maintain that momentum.

    8) Since 2006, 46 of 52 #1-seeds got to the Sweet 16, so if you’re filling out a bracket and are tempted to predict an early out for a #1 seed, please don’t do it. For your own good.

    7) Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 vs spread in the first round.
    Last four years, #2-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in the first round.
    Last three years, #3-seeds are 4-8 vs spread in the first round.

    6) Penn is a 16-seed, the first time since at least 2002 the Ivy League champ is a 16-seed; they were a 15-seed only once in last 15 tournaments, back in ’06.

    Over the last eight years, Ivy League teams are 7-1 vs spread in NCAA first round games.

    5) Since 2003, only 8 of 60 Final Four teams lost their first conference tourney game: Here are those teams:

    2003— Marquette, Texas
    2005— Michigan State
    2007— UCLA
    2009— UConn
    2010— Michigan State (only team to do it twice)
    2016— Syracuse
    2017— South Carolina

    4) Over the last 15 years, of the 60 teams who made the Final Four, 26 won their conference tournament. Over last six years, only 7 of 24 Final Four teams won their conference tourney; from 2004-11, 19 of 32 Final Four teams did.

    7 of the last 15 national champs won their conference tourney, but only one of the last six.

    3) Since the NCAA tournament went to 64, and then 68 teams, #2 seeds are 124-8 in their first round tournament games; here are the eight #2 seeds who lost in the first round:

    1990— Richmond (+9) 73, Syracuse 69
    1993— Santa Clara (+20) 64, Arizona 61
    1997— Coppin State (+17) 78, South Carolina 65
    2001— Hampton (+17.5) 58, Iowa State 57
    2012— Lehigh (+12) 75, Duke 70
    2012— Norfolk State (+21.5) 86, Missouri 84
    2013— Florida Gulf Coast (+13.5) 78, Georgetown 68
    2016— Middle Tennessee State (+18) 90, Michigan State 81

    2) First Four point spreads for Tuesday/Wednesday games:

    Tuesday: Radford -3.5 vs LIU; UCLA -3 vs St Bonaventure
    Wednesday: Texas Southern -4.5 vs NC Central; Arizona State -1 vs Syracuse

    1— Must be nice to have lot of money: Michigan State’s basketball team spent couple of days in Chicago last week, practiced in the Chicago Bulls’ practice facility, just to get away from campus.

    Big 14 teams have extra time to prepare for the NCAA’s this year, because the Big 14 tournament was a week earlier than usual. Lot of people think the layoff will make those teams fresher.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 11:38 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, March 12


    Central Michigan was 9-2 in pre-conference games (schedule #340); Chippewas won three of last four games overall- they’re 4-10 vs teams ranked in top 200. Fort Wayne lost four of its last six games; they’re 7-6 in non-MAC games, and are also 4-10 vs teams in top 200. Last three years, MAC teams are 9-9 vs Summit League teams. CMU last played Thursday; Mastodons last played eight days ago.

    Drake is #7 experience team in country that starts four seniors; they lost last three games, by 8-5-2 points. Bulldogs are 6-7 in non-conference games this year; they’re 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Drake hasn’t played in 10 days. Abilene Christian hasn’t played in nine days; they lost four of last five games, are 4-5 in non-league games. Wildcats are 0-8 this season vs teams ranked in top 200. ACU is #79 experience team- they turn ball over 20.3% of time.

    Tuesday
    Radford (-4) vs LIU
    LIU won its last five games, Radford won its last seven; Blackbirds finished T4 in NEC- they want to play fast (#39 pace). Radford plays slow (#346 pace); they finished T2 in Big South. LIU is 2-3 vs teams ranked in top 200; their SOS is #317- both their guards are sophomores. Radford was last in NCAA in ’09; their G’s are frosh/senior. Blackbirds were in NCAAs in 2011-13, going 0-3. Radford was last in NCAA’s in ’09. Last seven years, underdogs are 8-4-1 vs spread in 16-seed play-in games. NEC teams are 3-2 in play-in games; Big South teams are 2-1.

    UCLA (-3.5) vs St Bonaventure
    St Bonaventure played in this arena Jan 3, losing by 10 to the Dayton Flyers; they’re in NCAA’s for first time since ’12. Bonnies finished 2nd in A-14 this year; they’re #32 experience team, with pair of senior G’s- they won 13 of last 14 games, are 10-2 outside A-14, 7-4 vs top 100 teams. UCLA is #263 experience team; they play pace #57, and finished 3rd in Pac-12. Bruins lost three of last five games; they’re 9-3 outside Pac-12, 12-9 vs top 100 teams- they shoot 38.3% on arc and take lot of them. UCLA’s PG is a junior. Favorites are 7-7 vs spread in 11-seed play-in games, 4-0 the last two years.

    Wednesday
    Texas Southern (-4) vs North Carolina Central
    Texas Southern started this season 0-13 with a ridiculous streak of guarantee games against big-name teams; 11 of the 13 teams are ranked in top 120. Tigers are in NCAA’s for 4th time in five years; they’re coached by former Indiana coach Davis, start frosh/soph G’s. TSU won its last seven games, North Carolina Central won its last five. NCC finished 6th in MEAC; they play slow (#320) pace, TSU plays fast (#35). Eagles start two freshman G’s. NCC is 16-11 vs teams ranked below #200- they beat SWAC’s Southern 80-67. MEAC teams are 3-4 in play-in games; SWAC teams are 1-7.

    Arizona State (-1) vs Syracuse
    Syracuse won its first NCAA tourney game last seven times they were in, with last first-round loss in ’06 to Texas A&M, but they were usually a very high seed. Orange did get to Final Four as a 10-seed two years ago. Syracuse finished T10 in ACC this year; they play slow (#342) pace, are 3-5 in last eight games- their bench plays fewest minutes in country- they have no senior starters. Arizona State went 8-11 in Pac-12 after being 12-0 at Christmas; they lost five of last six games, start three seniors. Sun Devils play fast (#36) pace. ASU is 10-9 vs top 100 teams; Syracuse is 5-9 vs top 50 teams.




    NCAAB

    Monday, March 12


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    Trend Report
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    CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ IPFW
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Central Michigan's last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Central Michigan's last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games

    ABILENE CHRISTIAN @ DRAKE
    Drake is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
    Drake is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home


    HARTFORD @ SAN DIEGO
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 11:40 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, March 12


    What the hell is this?!?!?!?!

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    C MICHIGAN (19 - 14) at IUPU-FT WAYNE (18 - 14) - 3/12/2018, 12:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    N CAROLINA A&T (20 - 14) at LIBERTY (20 - 14) - 3/12/2018, 6:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    ABILENE CHRISTIAN (16 - 15) at DRAKE (16 - 16) - 3/12/2018, 2:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DRAKE is 1-0 straight up against ABILENE CHRISTIAN over the last 3 seasons

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    HARTFORD (19 - 13) at SAN DIEGO (18 - 13) - 3/12/2018, 10:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    Sportsbooks release opening pointspreads for first round of NCAA Tournament

    The NCAA Tournament committee released the teams and matchups for the 2018 edition of March Madness on Sunday night. The show itself was greatly criticized for the format change and, as always, there was outrage over some of the selections. Through it all, sportsbooks were quick to react with opening pointspreads for all available opening round matchups.

    Opening lines listed are from the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas:

    First Four

    16 LIU-Brooklyn
    16 Radford -3.5

    11 Arizona St.
    11 Syracuse PICK

    11 St. Bonaventure
    11 UCLA -3

    16 NC Central
    16 Texas Southern -5

    South Region

    1 Virginia -22.5
    16 UMBC

    8 Creighton -1.5
    9 Kansas St.

    5 Kentucky -5.5
    12 Davidson

    4 Arizona -8
    13 Buffalo

    6 Miami -1
    11 Loyola-Chicago

    3 Tennessee -13.5
    14 Wright St.

    7 Nevada -1.5
    10 Texas

    2 Cincinnati -16
    15 Georgia St.

    West Region

    1 Xavier
    16 NCCU/TXSO

    8 Missouri -1.5
    9 Florida St.

    5 Ohio St. -8.5
    12 S. Dakota St.

    4 Gonzaga -11.5
    13 UNC-Greensboro

    6 Houston -3.5
    11 San Diego St.

    3 Michigan -11
    14 Montana

    7 Texas A&M -4.5
    10 Providence

    2 North Carolina -17.5
    15 Lipscomb

    East Region

    1 Villanova
    16 LIU/RAD

    8 Virginia Tech -2
    9 Alabama

    5 West Virginia -9.5
    12 Murray State

    4 Wichita St. -12
    13 Marshall

    6 Florida
    11 STBON/UCLA

    3 Texas Tech -12
    14 Stephen F. Austin

    7 Arkansas
    10 Butler -1

    2 Purdue -21
    15 Cal St. Fullerton

    Midwest Region

    1 Kansas -15.5
    16 Pennsylvania

    8 Seton Hall
    9 NC State PICK

    5 Clemson -4.5
    12 New Mexico St.

    4 Auburn -11
    13 Charleston

    6 TCU
    11 ASU/SYR

    3 Michigan St. -13.5
    14 Bucknell

    7 Rhode Island
    10 Oklahoma PICK

    2 Duke -21
    15 Iona
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 11:41 AM.

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    Las Vegas oddsmaker provides some insight behind March Madness opening lines
    Patrick Everson

    The bracket is out, the games are on the betting board, so it’s time to take a closer look at the matchups. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a few interesting NCAA Tournament games, with insights from Matthew Holt, CEO of CG Analytics in Las Vegas.

    No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 7 Rhode Island Rams (-1)

    Many people felt Oklahoma had no business getting an at-large NCAA bid after losing eight of its last 10 games SU and ATS. The Sooners (18-13 SU, 10-20 ATS), one of the worst spread-covering teams in the nation, bowed out on the first day of the Big 12 Tournament, losing to Oklahoma State 71-60 as a 1-point favorite. But Lon Kruger’s squad apparently did enough early in the season to get in.

    Rhode Island, meanwhile, was much steadier all year long, winning the Atlantic 10 regular-season title. The Rams (25-7 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) then advanced to the A10 Tourney final before falling to Davidson on Sunday, 58-57 as a 2.5-point favorite.

    “Everyone’s talking about Oklahoma not deserving to get in. They’re a 1-point underdog to Rhode Island,” Holt said, explaining the reasoning for the Sooners being such a short pup. “There is gonna be some public support for Oklahoma, especially because of Trae Young. Arizona’s Deandre Ayton is the best player in college basketball. Young is the most famous player in college basketball.

    “Also, the power ratings between these two teams are really close.”

    On Sunday night, CG moved the line up a tick to Rhode Island -1.5 for this Thursday Midwest Region game.

    No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (-2)

    Miami, of the mighty ACC, is certainly the more known quantity in this Thursday South Region contest. The Hurricanes (22-9 SU, 11-15 ATS) had a nice four-game run to cap the regular season, but fell to North Carolina in their ACC Tournament opener, 82-65 catching 6 points.

    Loyola-Chicago is the pride of the Missouri Valley Conference, winning both the regular-season and tournament titles. The Ramblers (28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) have won 10 in a row and 17 of their last 18, going an impressive 14-4 ATS in that stretch. In the March 4 MVC final, Loyola dispatched Illinois State 65-49 laying 8.5 points.

    “That line is gonna be fairly close. It’s a 6 vs. 11 matchup, but just a 2-point spread,” Holt said. “Loyola-Chicago being one of the sleeper teams people like, so that’s already built into the spread. The power rating shows Miami should be -4.5.”

    No. 12 Davidson Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats (-6)

    Kentucky was certainly erratic for a fair amount of the season, but played some great ball down the stretch, capped by winning the SEC Tournament on Sunday. The Wildcats (24-10 SU, 17-17 ATS) went 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games, beating Tennessee in the SEC final 77-72 as a 2-point underdog.

    Davidson was 10-9 through its first 19 games, then went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in its last 13, including a three-game run to the Atlantic 10 Tournament title. In Sunday’s final, Davidson (21-11 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) topped aforementioned Rhode Island 58-57 as a 2.5-point pup.

    “Both these teams are red-hot, both teams playing their best basketball right now,” Holt said, noting the 6-point opening line – just a couple of 3-pointers -- shows respect for Davidson in this Thursday South Region meeting. “It’s a good game.”

    No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 6 Houston Cougars (-3.5)

    Houston flew a little under the radar in the American Athletic Conference, but could certainly be a team to watch over the first weekend of the NCAA Tourney in the West Region. The Cougars (26-7 SU, 18-10-1 ATS) went 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS over their last dozen games, narrowly falling to Cincinnati in Sunday’s AAC final, 56-55 as a 4.5-point ‘dog.

    San Diego State had no shot at an at-large bid unless it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament – which it did. The Aztecs (22-10 SU, 20-10 ATS) pulled off three wins in three days, including a semifinal blowout of top-seeded Nevada, followed by an 82-75 victory over New Mexico as a 4-point chalk in Saturday’s title game.

    “Houston-San Diego State is interesting because people have this love affair with the Aztecs,” Holt said of this Thursday West Region pairing. “In their power ratings, nobody is gonna have Houston as only 2 or 3 points better than San Diego State. The lowest I had this line in my power ratings was 4.25. But we’re gonna open at 3.5. The Aztecs are getting that positive momentum, playing well at the end of the year. They steamrolled through the Mountain West Tournament.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 11:42 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Monday, March 12



    Central Michigan @ IPFW

    Game 509-510
    March 12, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Central Michigan
    52.842
    IPFW
    55.491
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    IPFW
    by 2 1/2
    167
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    IPFW
    by 5
    159
    Dunkel Pick:
    Central Michigan
    (+5); Over

    Abilene Christian @ Drake


    Game 511-512
    March 12, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Abilene Christian
    47.823
    Drake
    54.759
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Drake
    by 7
    149
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Drake
    by 10
    143
    Dunkel Pick:
    Abilene Christian
    (+10); Over

    NC A&T @ Liberty


    Game 513-514
    March 12, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NC A&T
    41.376
    Liberty
    56.747
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Liberty
    by 15 1/2
    135
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Liberty
    by 11 1/2
    140
    Dunkel Pick:
    Liberty
    (-11 1/2); Under

    Hartford @ San Diego


    Game 515-516
    March 12, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Hartford
    46.735
    San Diego
    58.624
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Diego
    by 12
    133
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Diego
    by 9 1/2
    138
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Diego
    (-9 1/2); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 11:43 AM.

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