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Thread: Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/12

  1. #1
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    Default Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/12

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, March 12

    Good Luck on day #71 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Six interesting first round pointspreads:

    — Kentucky -6 vs Davidson

    — Clemson -5.5 vs New Mexico State

    — Tennessee -13 vs Wright State

    — Kansas -15.5 vs Penn— Lowest spread in 1-16 game since UNC-Vermont in 2012.

    — Seton Hall -2 vs NC State

    — Michigan -11.5 vs Montana


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Initial thoughts on the field of 68

    13) When I first saw the brackets, it upset me that USC was left out; they’re a very good team and surely deserved to get in, right? Same with Oklahoma State and to a lesser extent, Louisville.

    Then I read something Pat Forde of Yahoo! Sports posted on Twitter:

    “Louisville out. USC out. Oklahoma State out. What do they have in common? Part of the federal investigation of college hoops.”

    That actually made me feel better, that there was a reason those teams got left out, but still don’t think Syracuse belonged in, but they are in, so we move on despite that.

    12) Turns out Davidson’s win over Rhode Island knocked Notre Dame out of the field of 68.

    11) Middle Tennessee State won Conference USA, the #12 league in country, but lost in their conference tournament; the Blue Raiders played #13 non-conference schedule in the country, losing to USC by 5, Miami by 3- they beat Vandy, Ole Miss, Murray State, but they get left home.

    10) Texas Southern deserves special mention; coached by Mike Davis, who replaced Bob Knight at Indiana, the Tigers won the SWAC tourney, after starting this season 0-13.

    In November/December, Texas Southern played guarantee games at:
    Gonzaga-Ohio St-Syracuse-Kansas-Clemson-Oregon-Baylor-Wyoming-TCU-BYU

    Texas Southern may not be a great team, but their players probably pack really well, and their accountants are really happy, because all those guarantee games pay a lot of bills.

    9) Something to ponder when the Sweet 16 rolls around: looking back over the last 12 NCAA tournaments, the eventual national champ went 21-3 vs spread on the first weekend, so look for teams who were impressive on the first weekend to maintain that momentum.

    8) Since 2006, 46 of 52 #1-seeds got to the Sweet 16, so if you’re filling out a bracket and are tempted to predict an early out for a #1 seed, please don’t do it. For your own good.

    7) Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 vs spread in the first round.
    Last four years, #2-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in the first round.
    Last three years, #3-seeds are 4-8 vs spread in the first round.

    6) Penn is a 16-seed, the first time since at least 2002 the Ivy League champ is a 16-seed; they were a 15-seed only once in last 15 tournaments, back in ’06.

    Over the last eight years, Ivy League teams are 7-1 vs spread in NCAA first round games.

    5) Since 2003, only 8 of 60 Final Four teams lost their first conference tourney game: Here are those teams:

    2003— Marquette, Texas
    2005— Michigan State
    2007— UCLA
    2009— UConn
    2010— Michigan State (only team to do it twice)
    2016— Syracuse
    2017— South Carolina

    4) Over the last 15 years, of the 60 teams who made the Final Four, 26 won their conference tournament. Over last six years, only 7 of 24 Final Four teams won their conference tourney; from 2004-11, 19 of 32 Final Four teams did.

    7 of the last 15 national champs won their conference tourney, but only one of the last six.

    3) Since the NCAA tournament went to 64, and then 68 teams, #2 seeds are 124-8 in their first round tournament games; here are the eight #2 seeds who lost in the first round:

    1990— Richmond (+9) 73, Syracuse 69
    1993— Santa Clara (+20) 64, Arizona 61
    1997— Coppin State (+17) 78, South Carolina 65
    2001— Hampton (+17.5) 58, Iowa State 57
    2012— Lehigh (+12) 75, Duke 70
    2012— Norfolk State (+21.5) 86, Missouri 84
    2013— Florida Gulf Coast (+13.5) 78, Georgetown 68
    2016— Middle Tennessee State (+18) 90, Michigan State 81

    2) First Four point spreads for Tuesday/Wednesday games:

    Tuesday: Radford -3.5 vs LIU; UCLA -3 vs St Bonaventure
    Wednesday: Texas Southern -4.5 vs NC Central; Arizona State -1 vs Syracuse

    1— Must be nice to have lot of money: Michigan State’s basketball team spent couple of days in Chicago last week, practiced in the Chicago Bulls’ practice facility, just to get away from campus.

    Big 14 teams have extra time to prepare for the NCAA’s this year, because the Big 14 tournament was a week earlier than usual. Lot of people think the layoff will make those teams fresher.

  3. #3
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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, March 12


    Home side won last eight Milwaukee-Memphis games; Bucks are 1-4 vs spread in last five trips to Memphis. Over is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Milwaukee lost six of its last eight games; they’re 5-1 vs spread as road favorites. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Grizzlies lost their last 17 games; their last win was Jan 29. Memphis is 2-6 in last eight games as home dogs. Six of their last seven games stayed under.

    Thunder won four of last five games with Sacramento; three of last four series games stayed under total. Kings are 3-1 vs spread in last four visits to OKC. Sacramento lost eight of their last 11 games; they’re 7-5 in last 12 games as road underdogs, 6-6 if they played night before. Four of their last five games stayed under. OKC won five of last seven games; they’re 6-9 in last 15 games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

    Rockets/Spurs split their last eight games; San Antonio is 3-2 vs spread in last five games in this arena. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Spurs lost eight of their last 10 games; they’re 9-7 as road underdogs. Last three SA games stayed under total. Houston won 18 of its last 19 games; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as home favorites. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.

    Portland won/covered its last four games with Miami; three of those games stayed under. Miami is 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Portland. Heat won six of their last eight games; they’re 7-2 in last nine games as road underdogs. Three of their last four games went over. Portland won its last nine games; they’re 8-2 in last ten games as home favorites. Six of their last eight games stayed under.




    NBA

    Monday, March 12


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    Trend Report
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    MILWAUKEE @ MEMPHIS
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
    Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games

    SACRAMENTO @ OKLAHOMA CITY
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games on the road
    Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
    Oklahoma City is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Sacramento
    Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento

    SAN ANTONIO @ HOUSTON
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston
    San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Houston is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games

    MIAMI @ PORTLAND
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
    Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 12:02 PM.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Monday, March 12


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    MILWAUKEE (35 - 31) at MEMPHIS (18 - 48) - 3/12/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 66-83 ATS (-25.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MILWAUKEE is 368-448 ATS (-124.8 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 263-321 ATS (-90.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
    MEMPHIS is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games this season.
    MEMPHIS is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    MEMPHIS is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 3-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SACRAMENTO (21 - 46) at OKLAHOMA CITY (39 - 29) - 3/12/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-40 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all games this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a favorite this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SACRAMENTO is 7-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAN ANTONIO (37 - 29) at HOUSTON (52 - 14) - 3/12/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN ANTONIO is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 115-85 ATS (+21.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
    HOUSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
    SAN ANTONIO is 1036-909 ATS (+36.1 Units) in all games since 1996.
    SAN ANTONIO is 187-146 ATS (+26.4 Units) in March games since 1996.
    HOUSTON is 32-45 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 8-8 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    SAN ANTONIO is 10-6 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (36 - 31) at PORTLAND (40 - 26) - 3/12/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PORTLAND is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
    PORTLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 84-62 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games this season.
    MIAMI is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
    MIAMI is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    MIAMI is 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PORTLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    PORTLAND is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 12:03 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Monday, March 12



    Milwaukee @ Memphis

    Game 501-502
    March 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    116.791
    Memphis
    104.590
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 12
    211
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Milwaukee
    by 6 1/2
    205
    Dunkel Pick:
    Milwaukee
    (-6 1/2); Over

    Sacramento @ Oklahoma City


    Game 503-504
    March 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Sacramento
    109.233
    Oklahoma City
    123.387
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oklahoma City
    by 14
    218
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oklahoma City
    by 12
    210
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oklahoma City
    (-12); Over

    San Antonio @ Houston


    Game 505-506
    March 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Antonio
    118.523
    Houston
    126.613
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 8
    206
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 13
    210
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Antonio
    (+13); Under

    Miami @ Portland


    Game 507-508
    March 12, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    115.412
    Portland
    126.896
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Portland
    by 11 1/2
    205
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland
    by 7
    211
    Dunkel Pick:
    Portland
    (-7); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 12:04 PM.

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    NBA Betting Roadmap: Raptors primed to do some serious damage in playoffs
    Al McMordie

    Toronto has won its last eight games, and owns the third best record in the NBA at 49-17.

    The Toronto Raptors served notice to the rest of the NBA when they defeated Houston on Friday to snap the Rockets' 17-game win streak. Toronto has won its last eight games, and owns the third best record in the NBA at 49-17. With just a month left in the season there are several open questions such as which team will own the best record and which Western Conference teams will be left out of the playoffs.

    Let's take a look at the NBA's upcoming week.

    Spread Watch

    With apologies to the Houston Rockets, who have lost just once in their past 19 games, the Portland Trail Blazers are the hottest team in the NBA right now. Terry Stotts' crew is on a nine-game win streak - including a 17-point blowout of Golden State on Friday - which has catapulted them to the third seed in the Western Conference. For the season, Portland is 40-26, and is also 36-26-4 ATS.

    The Blazers are even hot in Las Vegas, as they've covered their last six games, and are 16-5-1 ATS since January 18.

    This week, Portland will finish its current five-game home stand with tilts against Miami, Cleveland and Detroit, before hitting the road on Sunday to take on the Los Angeles Clippers. Will Portland's hot streak continue? We certainly believe they have a heckuva chance to win their three home games, and especially like them in Monday's match-up vs. Miami. Portland has won and covered four straight in the series and, even better, falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 89-36 ATS since 1993. That angle plays on certain home teams off back-to-back blowout home wins, when playing an opponent also off a home win. Lay the points with Portland on Monday.

    Total Watch

    The Memphis Grizzlies have lost their last 17 games in a row, which is the league's longest losing streak since the 76ers opened up the 2015-16 season with 18 defeats. And it seems as if that's perfectly fine, as management no doubt wants to win the race to the bottom in order to have the best opportunity to snare the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery.

    Indeed, Memphis chose to rest its best player, Marc Gasol, for the third time in nine games in Saturday's 114-80 loss at Dallas. Thus, Memphis is turning to guys like JaMychal Green, Ben McLemore and Dillon Brooks for offensive production. So, it's not surprising to find that the Grizz' offense failed to get more than 80 points in either of its two previous games. Memphis has now gone Under the total in six of its last seven games and, without significant offensive talent on the floor, will be an excellent candidate to look at to play the Under the rest of this season.

    This week, Memphis will host Milwaukee, Chicago and Denver. We like the Monday game vs. the Bucks to go Under the total, as Milwaukee is also on a 15-6 Under run and these two teams have gone 9-4-1 Under the total in head-to-head matchups since 2011.

    Injury Watch

    The San Antonio Spurs are mired in their worst season since 1996-97. That year, David Robinson missed all but six games due to back and foot injuries. Similarly, this season, San Antone's best player, Kawhi Leonard, has only appeared in nine games due to a quadriceps injury.

    The result is that the Spurs have struggled mightily when playing on the road, and also against the league's better teams. Indeed, San Antonio's streak of 20 consecutive winning seasons on the road (an NBA record) came to an end on Saturday when it lost its 21st road game at Oklahoma City. But if there was a silver lining in that loss to OKC, it came in the form of a report by ESPN's Lisa Salters during the TV broadcast that there is the possibility that Leonard will return to action this Thursday, when the Spurs will host the New Orleans Pelicans.

    If Leonard is in the line-up, I would pull the trigger on San Antonio on Thursday, given that it will be playing with double revenge from two losses suffered earlier this season to the Pels and the Spurs are 19-9 ATS at home in the regular season when playing with double revenge.

    Schedule Watch

    This Saturday, the Phoenix Suns will host the Golden State Warriors. Normally, this would be a game which wouldn't excite many NBA bettors but I've had this game circled for four weeks - ever since the Warriors thrashed the Suns, 129-83, on February 12. I will always look at a team which lost to its opponent by 44+ points in the season's previous meeting, as those teams have covered the point spread 60% since 1990.

    Of course, there's nothing wrong with 60%, but we can significantly improve our angle if we solely focus on going against opponents that aren't succeeding against the point spread in the current season. If we just fade teams whose ATS win percentage isn't .489 or higher then our angle zooms to a perfect 12-0 ATS since 1990. And that's the situation on Saturday, as Golden State is an awful 28-39 ATS on the season, including 0-6 ATS its last six. Take Phoenix plus the points.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-12-2018 at 12:05 PM.

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