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Thread: Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/11

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    Default Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/11

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, March 11

    Good Luck on day #70 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Over last two years, best 3-point shooters in NBA:

    6) Seth Curry, 137-322, 42.5%

    5) Darren Collison, 145-339, 42.8%

    4) Klay Thompson, 471-1101, 42.8%

    3) Otto Porter Jr, 257-595, 34.2%

    2) Kyle Korver, 307-698, 44.0%

    1) Joe Ingles, 289-649, 44.5%


    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

    13) Basketball trivia: a regulation hoop is exactly two basketballs wide. Its a pretty good coaching point to show that to kids- the hoop looks smaller because it is ten feet up in the air, but if you show kids that two basketballs can fit in a rim, it can help their confidence.

    12) Arizona 75, USC 61— If you made me tell you who the best team in the country is, I’d tell you Arizona, though Virginia is close. All the chaos at Arizona this season may help them this month, since they’re used to the limelight- it may have brought the team closer together.

    Pac-12 will have an interesting day, with UCLA/Arizona State on the bubble. It is possible that the AAC gets more teams in the tournament than the Pac-12.

    11) UMBC 65, Vermont 62— Retrievers win the America East title- this was a great game. This league has found a niche with the 11am Saturday slot in Champ Week. No matter where their championship game is played, the gym is always packed.

    Senior guard Jairus Lyles drained a straight-away 3-pointer with 0:00.6 left to give UMBC its first NCAA berth since 2008. This was UMBC’s first win over Vermont in their last 24 meetings.

    Ryan Odom is UMBC’s coach; his dad is Dave Odom, who was Tim Duncan’s coach at Wake Forest.

    10) How great was Pistol Pete Maravich? He played at LSU from 1967-70, long time ago, but there are still eight college gyms in this country where Maravich holds the scoring record for a visiting player. Pistol Pete scored 44.2 ppg in his three-year varsity career, and that was before 3-pointers were in the game.

    9) Marshall 67, Western Kentucky 66- Thundering Herd is in NCAAs for first time since 1987; they’re coached by Dan D’Antoni, Mike’s brother.

    8) LIU won the NEC tournament this week; they’re 18-16 this year, against the #335 schedule in the country (out of 351). Only 5 of their 34 games were against teams ranked in the top 200.

    7) Coaching carousel: UConn fired Kevin Ollie, Georgia fired Mark Fox.

    UConn won the national championship four years ago, but in this “What have you done for me lately?” world, they’re 30-35 the last two years, so Ollie was told to take a hike.

    Georgia is 58-50 in SEC games the last six years, but Dawgs only made the NCAAs twice in nine years under Fox. Some smart mid-major team will hire Fox and will be glad they did.

    Also being rumored that Fresno State coach Rodney Terry will be leaving for the UTEP job, which I am told pays better than Fresno.

    6) Mookie Betts started out spring training 0-16; I’ve always wondered if players get stressed out over spring training slumps. When Betts got his first hit of the spring the other day, an infield hit, he smiled and pointed to the skies, so apparently, the 0-16 start stressed him out.

    5) Cal-Fullerton 71, Cal-Irvine 55— Big West has nine teams in it; the last eight years, 8 of those 9 teams won the Big West tournament once each, which may help explain why Cal-Riverside will be hiring a new coach this spring.

    4) Houston 77, Wichita State 74— AAC semifinal was a terrific game; dawned me during second half that Jim Nantz went to college at Houston, but you’d never know it listening to him call the game. Nantz, Raftery and Grant Hill make a good broadcasting team.

    3) Villanova 76, Providence 66 OT— Bubble teams everywhere exhale; Friars would’ve been a bid-stealer. Internet pundits keep speculating about Chris Mack or Ed Cooley leaving for other schools, but why would you leave a Big East job?

    Not only is the Big East a really good league, there is no football involved at those schools, so your team is king at your school, and thats a big thing.

    2) Every bubble team in the country will be rooting for Rhode Island against Davidson today; if Davidson wins, it knocks another team off the bubble. Nevada losing in the Mountain West already knocked one bubble team off.

    1— Today is one of the longer days of the year, and not because we turned the clocks ahead an hour last night; NCAA brackets come out at 6:00 tonight. Once the brackets come out, then it is a full night of research and handicapping. Sleepy day, very busy night.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Sunday, March 11



    Pennsylvania @ Harvard

    Game 819-820
    March 11, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pennsylvania
    58.924
    Harvard
    54.447
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pennsylvania
    by 4 1/2
    138
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pennsylvania
    by 2
    132
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pennsylvania
    (-2); Over

    Davidson @ Rhode Island


    Game 821-822
    March 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Davidson
    63.326
    Rhode Island
    68.867
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Rhode Island
    by 5 1/2
    147
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Rhode Island
    by 2
    139 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Rhode Island
    (-2); Over

    Kentucky @ Tennessee


    Game 823-824
    March 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kentucky
    72.339
    Tennessee
    71.498
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kentucky
    by 1
    133
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1
    140
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kentucky
    (+1); Under

    TX-Arlington @ Georgia State


    Game 825-826
    March 11, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    TX-Arlington
    56.545
    Georgia State
    55.662
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    TX-Arlington
    by 1
    144
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Georgia State
    by 1 1/2
    150
    Dunkel Pick:
    TX-Arlington
    (+1 1/2); Under

    Houston @ Cincinnati


    Game 827-828
    March 11, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    68.785
    Cincinnati
    76.420
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 7 1/2
    135
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 4 1/2
    127 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (-4 1/2); Over





    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, March 11


    Ivy League tournament, Philadelphia
    Penn/Harvard split pair of games this year, with home side winning both meetings. Harvard is 7-3 in last ten series games; teams split last six. Quakers are playing this on their home court; they’re 8-0 in Ivy home games this season. Crimson lost last three visits here, by 10-3-3 points, though they did win here yesterday, beating Cornell by 19. Only two Harvard guys played more than 30:00. Penn has easy time in their semi-final game; they’re 11-2 in last 13 games, with a win over St Joe’s in there. No Quaker played more than 29:00 yesterday.

    Atlantic 14 tourney, Washington DC
    Davidson/Rhode Island split pair of games this year; home side won both. Rams won first meeting Feb 9, then lost rematch 63-61 in Charlotte March 2, when URI was just 6-24 on arc, 5-11 on foul line. Rams are 4-3 in A-14 meetings with Davidson, beating Wildcats 84-60 in this event LY. URI is 4-3 in its last seven games overall; they made 14-31 on arc, rallied back from down 11 in 2nd half in 90-87 win over St Joe’s yesterday. Wildcats won 10 of last 12 games; they played three starters 38:00+ in 82-70 win over St Bonaventure yesterday, pulling away late.

    SEC tournament, St Louis
    Tennessee beat Kentucky twice this season, 76-65 in Knoxville Jan 6, then 61-59 in Rupp Arena Feb 6, when Volunteers outscored Kentucky 9-4 over last 2:53 of game. Tennessee won its last six games; they drubbed Arkansas by 18 yesterday- no Hog played more than 29:00. Kentucky won six of its last seven games, winning last two days by 13-23 points; three of their guys still played 31:00+ Saturday. Wildcats won last three SEC tournaments; they’re 21-3 in last 24 SEC tourney games. Vols are in SEC final for first time since ’09, when they lost to Miss State by 3.

    Sun Belt tournament, New Orleans
    Tex-Arlington won five in row, eight of last ten games- they played only seven guys yesterday, three of them 35:00+ in upset win over top-seed ULL. UTA is most experienced team in nation; six of seven guys who played yesterday are seniors. Georgia State/Tex-Arlington split pair of games this year, with home side winning both; State is 5-4 overall in Sun Belt meetings with UTA. Panthers played three guys 30:00+ in 73-67 win yesterday; they held on to win after PG Simonds got in foul trouble- they led by 18 in 1st half. State won 14 of its last 18 games.

    AAC tournament, Orlando
    Cincinnati is 29-4 this year, but they split pair with Houston, losing 67-62 in Texas Feb 15; Bearcats are 8-2 in AAC meetings wth Houston. Cincy won its last six games, but they were down 13 at half to Memphis yesterday before storming back to win 70-60. Three Bearcats played 31:00+. Houston won 10 of its last 11 games, with only loss at Memphis; Cougars won 10 of last 11 games, winning tough 77-74 game with Wichita Saturday. Three Houston kids played 30:00+ yesterday. Both of these teams are in NCAA’s, so they’re just playing for a trophy here.




    NCAAB

    Sunday, March 11


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PENNSYLVANIA @ HARVARD
    Pennsylvania is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    Pennsylvania is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Harvard is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Harvard is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

    KENTUCKY @ TENNESSEE
    Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kentucky

    DAVIDSON @ RHODE ISLAND
    Davidson is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    Davidson is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Rhode Island is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
    Rhode Island is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Davidson

    TEXAS-ARLINGTON @ GEORGIA STATE
    Texas-Arlington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas-Arlington's last 7 games when playing Georgia State
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia State's last 7 games when playing Texas-Arlington
    Georgia State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

    HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
    Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Cincinnati is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Houston


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-11-2018 at 11:43 AM.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, March 11


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PENNSYLVANIA (23 - 8) vs. HARVARD (18 - 12) - 3/11/2018, 12:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HARVARD is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    HARVARD is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
    HARVARD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    HARVARD is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
    HARVARD is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    HARVARD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HARVARD is 4-2 against the spread versus PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
    HARVARD is 3-3 straight up against PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DAVIDSON (20 - 11) vs. RHODE ISLAND (25 - 6) - 3/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    RHODE ISLAND is 3-3 against the spread versus DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
    RHODE ISLAND is 4-2 straight up against DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KENTUCKY (23 - 10) vs. TENNESSEE (25 - 7) - 3/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 5-1 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
    TENNESSEE is 4-2 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TX-ARLINGTON (21 - 12) vs. GEORGIA ST (23 - 10) - 3/11/2018, 2:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    GEORGIA ST is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
    TX-ARLINGTON is 51-25 ATS (+23.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TX-ARLINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
    TX-ARLINGTON is 4-1 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (26 - 6) vs. CINCINNATI (29 - 4) - 3/11/2018, 3:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CINCINNATI is 119-160 ATS (-57.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CINCINNATI is 4-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 4-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-11-2018 at 11:44 AM.

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    SEC Championship betting preview and odds: Kentucky vs. Tennessee

    Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers (Pick, 136)

    Game to be played at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, Missouri

    No. 4 seed Kentucky is playing some of its best basketball of the season at the right time and looks to record a fourth consecutive SEC Tournament Championship when it takes on second-seeded Tennessee on Sunday in St. Louis. The Wildcats allowed 49 points in the quarterfinals and scored an 86-63 triumph against Alabama in the semifinals Saturday for their sixth victory in the last seven games after losing four straight.

    “They’re growing up,” Kentucky coach John Calipari told reporters. “The best thing that happened to my team, not me personally, was the four losses in a row. … They needed to be told you’re not good enough, and you’re not going to do this by yourself. You’ve got to unpack your bags, and let’s get this together as a team.” While Coach Calipari has not been a fan of confernce tournaments, the Wildcats have now won 11 consecutive SEC tourney games, going 9-1-1 ATS. No. 12 Tennessee poses a very difficult challenge while riding a six-game winning streak, and the Volunteers have beaten the Wildcats twice this season - by 11 at home in early January and by two at Kentucky on Feb. 6. Tennessee edged Mississippi State in the quarterfinals before rolling past Arkansas 84-66 in the semifinals to reach its first SEC final since 2009 and give itself a chance for its first title since 1979. “We just have a standard we’re trying to play towards,” Volunteers junior forward Admiral Schofield told reporters. “The biggest thing is we try to go out to every game with that mindset, like we’re trying to perfect our standard. We haven’t done that yet, so we’re a hungry team. We still want more.”

    TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN

    BETTING STATS:



    BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: Tennessee opened as 1-point chalk and overnight action on Kentucky has pushed that number all of the way down to a Pick 'Em on Sunday morning. The total hit betting boards at 138.5 and has been bet down to 136 as of Sunday morning.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    ABOUT KENTUCKY: Sophomore Wenyen Gabriel drained all seven attempts from 3-point range en route to scoring a career high-matching 23, leading the way after the 6-9 forward arrived Saturday averaging just 6.1 points. “I came in with more focus, and I just let it fly,” Gabriel told reporters after the win. “My teammates trusted me, and the shots fell today.” Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 17 points and 8.5 assists while forward P.J. Washington has contributed 16 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in the SEC Tournament.

    ABOUT TENNESSEE: The Volunteers have been a balanced group offensively and received big games from a pair of players outside their top four scorers in the semifinals. Sophomore guard Jordan Bone scored 19 on 8-of-11 shooting after 10 straight games in single digits and 6-11 forward Kyle Alexander scored 12 against Arkansas after totaling 13 in his previous five contests. Schofield is averaging 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in the tournament while SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams is contributing 11 and eight, respectively, but is 5-of-17 from the field.

    TRENDS:

    * Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
    * Under is 5-0 in Volunteers last 5 games following a ATS win.
    * Under is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings.
    * Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

    TIP-INS:

    * Tennessee sophomore G Lamonte Turner has drained 9-of-18 from 3-point range the last four games and is at 40.5 percent for the season.
    * Kentucky F Kevin Knox, a first team All-SEC pick, leads the team at 15.5 points per game but is 13-for-34 from the field the last three contests.
    * Volunteers senior G James Daniel III scored in double figures (12) for the first time in 11 games and had no turnovers in 22 minutes Saturday.

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    AAC Championship betting preview and odds: Houston vs. Cincinnati

    Houston Cougars vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-4.5, 127.5)

    Game to be played at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida

    No. 8 Cincinnati can make its final statement toward earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday when the top-seeded Bearcats face third-seeded Houston in the American Athletic Conference Tournament final in Orlando. Cincinnati has won six in a row and, with only four losses all season, is certainly in the mix to be on the top line when the Field of 68 is announced Sunday, while 21st-ranked Houston is comfortably in the field, as well.

    The Bearcats have defeated SMU (61-51) and Memphis (70-60) in their first two games of this event as Gary Clark has averaged 14.5 points and 11.5 rebounds. Jarron Cumberland added 18 points versus Memphis after going scoreless against SMU, giving Houston one more weapon to worry about in the championship game. The Cougars rode Rob Gray's 33 points to a 77-74 win over Wichita State on Saturday, earning a trip to the AAC title game for the first time. Houston knows it can beat Cincinnati, as it did as recently as Feb. 15 when it snapped the Bearcats' national-best winning streak at 16 games.

    TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

    If you're in the market for an online sportsbook, check out in-depth reviews of the best books and sign-up bonuses at OddsShark.com.

    BETTING STATS:



    BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Bearcats opened as 4.5-point chalk and that number has yet to move. The total hit the board at 131 and money coming in on the under has driven that number quickly down to 127.5.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    ABOUT HOUSTON: The Cougars only had seven turnovers in Saturday's win and that proved to be the difference, along with 7-of-15 combined 3-point shooting by Gray and Corey Davis Jr. The other three starters for Houston combined for only 13 points, although Nura Zanna did register a team-high nine rebounds off the bench. Gray has reached the 30-point plateau in two of his last three games and is averaging 24.7 points over his last six outings.

    ABOUT CINCINNATI: The Bearcats committed only three turnovers against Memphis, which was critical because the team shot barely above 40 percent from the field for the second straight game. Kyle Washington contributed double-digit points for the fourth straight game but missed both of his 3-pointers, dropping him to 2-of-12 from outside the arc over the last four games. Jacob Evans is 1-of-11 from long distance over the last two outings and has made only 4-of-17 shots during that span, totaling nine points - four below his season average.

    TRENDS:

    * Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
    * Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
    * Under is 7-1 in Cougars last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
    * Under is 6-1 in Bearcats last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
    * Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

    TIP-INS:

    * The Bearcats have previously won 30 games in a season twice - in 2001-02 and in 2016-17.
    * Houston starting F Breaon Brady has gone 10 straight games without attempting more than three shots.
    * Davis is 9-of-12 from 3-point range against Cincinnati this season.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-11-2018 at 11:45 AM.

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    Davidson is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs Atlantic 10 opponents.
    Rhode Island is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs Atlantic 10 opponents.
    Spread: Rams -2
    Total: 138.5


    Tennessee has not won the SEC tourney since 1979, which was also the last time they beat Kentucky three times in the same season.
    Spread: TEN -1.5
    Total: 137

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