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Thread: Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/5

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    Default Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/5

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, March 5

    Good Luck on day #64 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    — Last five years, five different teams have won the World Series.

    — Guy that played Mr Chow in the Hangover movies was at the Duke-UNC game Saturday, wearing a Duke sweatshirt.

    — Michigan 75, Purdue 66— Wolverines win Big 14 tourney for second year in a row.

    — Tampa Bay Rays signed Carlos Gomez for $4M to play right field this year.

    — For the record, Phil Mickelson’s last PGA win was 97 starts ago.

    — Tickets to sit on the hill behind the OF fence at Braves-Cardinals spring training game Saturday were $25. Wow. $25 to sit on a grassy hill and watch an exhibition game.


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend

    13) Cincinnati 62, Wichita State 61— Intense, high level game; Bearcats win the AAC regular season title. Cincy PG Evans was hobbling around most of the game; they need him to be healthy 11 days from now.

    12) Loyola Chi 65, Illinois State 49— Ramblers are in NCAA’s for first time since 1985; this was their 5th year in the MVC- it is first time they’ve had a winning conference record since 2007.

    As for Illinois State, they lost in finals of Arch Madness for 4th time in six years, losing to four different schools, two of whom (Creighton, Wichita) aren’t even in the MVC anymore.

    11) Think about it, conference realignment has made coaches millionaires who work at schools that didn’t even move. Andy Enfield broke the bank at USC because of his success at Florida Gulf Coast, where his team made the Sweet 16 in 2013.

    But Florida Gulf Coast became the best team in the Atlantic Sun only because Belmont moved up to the OVC; Bruins won the A-Sun title five of the last seven years they were in the league. Enfield should send the Belmont AD a gift every year.

    FGCU is 70-22 in A-Sun play since Belmont moved on.

    Wichita State became a MVC power after Creighton went to the Big East.

    10) Lipscomb 108, Florida Gulf Coast 96— Speaking of which, you play the conference title game on your home floor, its not good if you’re down 60-31 at halftime. Lipscomb was 32-47 on the foul line, and this was a true road game for them. 47 free throws is an awful lot.

    FGCU made a wild comeback in the second half, got within five points, but ran out of gas at the end and Lipscomb is in the NCAA’s for the first time ever.

    Lipscomb won its last eight games and 12 of last 13- they play 7th-fastest tempo in country. Some of their high-profile non-conference games:
    — Lost 86-64 at Alabama
    — Lost 80-57 at Texas
    — Lost 81-71 at Tennessee
    — Lost 98-66 at Purdue

    Lipscomb turns ball over 20+% of time out of conference, which is a red flag; at times they looked awful when Florida Gulf Coast was pressing them.

    9) Phil Mickelson won a playoff over Justin Thomas in this week’s PGA event; Mickelson got his first Tour win in January 1991; Thomas was born in April, 1993

    8) Over the last 30 years, this was just 23rd out of 1,355 PGA tournaments that was won by a golfer who was 47+ years old.

    7) Virginia won the ACC by four games; 3rd-place teams were six games behind Virginia.

    6) Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann is 49-23 in conference games wth Butler/Ohio State the last four years, but he is 0-4 in conference tournament games in those seasons.

    When he was at Gardner-Webb, Holtmann’s teams were 23-29 in conference games, 1-3 in the conference tournaments, so he is 1-7 overall as a head coach in conference tourneys.

    5) Radford 55, Liberty 52— Carlik Jones, a 31.1% 3-point shooter coming in, drained a walk-off, conference-winning 3-ball at the buzzer to send Radford dancing for first time since 2009, when they got waxed 101-58 by North Carolina as a 16-seed in first round.

    This year’s Radford team had these high-profile pre-conference games:
    — Lost 82-72 at Ohio State.
    — Lost 74-62 at Vanderbilt
    — Lost 95-68 at Virginia Tech
    — Lost 77-62 at Nevada

    They play the 5th-slowest tempo in America.

    4) Interesting note: Some NFL teams at the Combine scheduled 15:00 interviews with UCLA players, only to grill that player about QB Josh Rosen. Teams will do anything they can to mine out information about players they might potentially select.

    3) From MMQB.com: “…….there’s a favorite question employed by almost every team in the NFL when quizzing a prospect about his teammates: If you could take one teammate with you to your future NFL team, who would it be?”

    It is straight out of the movie Draft Day, where the Browns don’t draft a QB prospect in part because his teammates didn’t go to his 21st birthday party. A quarterback has to be a leader, a person his teammates believe in. Doesn’t work any other way.

    2) We had 8.5 inches of snow in Albany the other day; in Cobleskill, which Mapquest says is 45 miles away from here, they had 39 inches of snow, over three feet!!! No bueno.

    1— Kawhi Leonard and Jordan Brand were working on a new four-year extension worth more than $20 million, but now talks have stalled.

    According to ESPN.com: “…….discussions broke down abruptly because representatives for Leonard didn’t feel that the new deal reflected the forward’s accomplishments and standing within the league.” Oh boy.

    Leonard has been cleared by the Spurs’ doctors to play, but has chosen not to; he’s played in nine games this season- he currently makes $500,000 a year on his Jordan endorsement deal, is being paid $18,868,625 by the Spurs this season.

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    Championship Week - not the NCAA tournament - is the real March Madness
    Jason Logan

    The NCAA tournament is for tourists.

    You want the real March Madness? Try cramming every major-conference program as well as a truck full of mid-major teams into a week of basketball, with most of that condensed in a Thursday-to-Sunday window.

    Then, try setting odds for every single one of those games, with a wave of new matchups the second those contests are through. And if that’s not enough, sick the sharpest sports bettors in the world on those odds and try to keep the book balanced.

    “It’s like a duck on a pond,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM in Las Vegas, tells us. “On top everything is peaceful and serene. But underneath, the duck is pedaling like crazy.”

    Conference championship week doesn’t carry the pageantry of the NCAA tournament, but for those in the industry there is no busier time. It also doesn’t draw the massive crowds of public bettors, but caters more to the hardcore college hoops fans and professional handicappers.

    “The handle for the NCAA tournament is probably a pretty close 50/50 split between sharp and public action. Conference tournament week,” says Rood, “is closer to a 60/40 or 70/30 split in favor of action from the wiseguys.”

    Oddsmakers admit that setting odds for the first two big days of the NCAA tournament – Thursday and Friday – is much easier than trying to keep pace with the conference tournaments. And throughout the tournament, books have at least a full day between each teams’ next game.

    Championship week not only challenges the oddsmakers to come up with lines for the next day on short notice but doesn’t allow them to come up for air until the whole thing is done Sunday evening – just before the Selection Committee picks its field of 68 and they have to handicap the opening matchups for the national tournament.

    “We’re talking about five straight days of non-stop basketball,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook.ag, tells us. “It’s exhausting but it’s also super exciting, with wall-to-wall games going. Personally, other than college bowl week from Christmas to January 1, this is my favorite week of the year.”

    Despite the fatigue and short turnaround, books can’t afford to make any mistakes during championship week. Unlike the NCAA tournament, which is huge with the casual basketball bettors, the conference tournaments are shark infested waters with wiseguys just waiting for the books to slip and dunk their toe in.

    “Our lines will be geared more towards what we think the sharps will do as opposed to what the public will do this week,” says Childs. “Next week (during the NCAA tournament), it’s the complete opposite.”

    What is it about the conference tournaments – more than the national tournament - that draws the wiseguys? The overall consensus among sharps is the sheer abundance of games available. The more games, the more opportunities bettors have to find the matchup they want and cash in. It’s also a game of cat and mouse when the odds are released, chasing the added line value before books adjust their numbers.

    Another reason championship week is more popular with sharps than the NCAA tournament is the familiarity between the programs. This not only works for situational bettors, looking to cash in on sweeps and revenge spots, but also when crunching the numbers for those conference tournaments.

    “Using conference-only stats gives a great read on the teams as they all play common opponents within the same conference,” says Steve Merril. “In the NCAA tournament, you normally have teams that played zero common opponents and completely different schedule strengths, so it’s harder to set an accurate power rating.”

    Mid-major conference tournaments have been rolling since last week but March Madness – the real March Madness – kicks into high gear Tuesday and Wednesday when the big boys get underway. ACC tournament opens Tuesday, with the Big East, Big 12, SEC and Pac-12 starting Wednesday. The AAC tournament tips off Thursday.

    Editor's note: This article was originally published in 2015.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-05-2018 at 12:13 PM.

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    Cash in on college basketball conference tournaments with these betting tips
    Maddy Palmer

    If you want March Madness – like the real Madness – conference tournament time is it. Unlike the NCAA, conference tournaments throw constant competition at teams, with the winners often having to win three or for four games in three or four days.

    The quick turnaround is not only a challenge for basketball programs but also for bookmakers, and that levels the playing field a bit with so many games happening in such a short span. So sports bettors will want to strike when books are at their weakest, and here are some helpful tips and tactics to follow to help you cash in on conference tournaments.

    Mind the moves

    As we mentioned, teams that win move on to the next day, which means oddsmakers are frantically making lines as matchups are set. With so many new games on the board, conference tournament spreads and totals can be some of weaker opening lines you’ll see all year.

    Bettors will want to keep a close eye on those openers and shouldn’t be afraid to tail the early movement, with those adjustments based on instant action from wiseguys. Totals will see the biggest movement, as these Over/Unders are admittedly the oddsmakers’ greatest weakness.

    Don’t doubt depth

    Due to that crazy pace during conference tournaments, the depth of a roster is put to the true test. Basketball bettors will want to analyze just how deep a team dives into its bench and how reliable those reserves are.

    Some programs regularly only go six or seven players deep, while others are comfortable swapping out five at a time without seeing much of a downgrade. As games stack up and fatigue becomes a factor – especially after close and intense games – depth can be the difference when it comes to covering the spread.

    And don’t get too caught up on experience, favoring upperclassmen over freshmen. At this point in the season, those first-year players are freshmen in name only.

    Past meetings

    Another big difference between capping conference tournaments compared to the Big Dance is familiarity. In the NCAA, opponents are often foreign and from different leagues. But in conference tourneys, you could have teams playing for a third time on the season.

    Bettors should always go back and look at those recent meetings between foes, but also be mindful that a game played in late December or early January doesn’t hold as much weight as a game played toward the end of the regular season. Teams can change drastically in that time, with coaching adjustments, injuries and lineup moves, and player development.

    Also don’t forget to take things like home-court advantage out of the mix, with most conference tournaments played at a neutral site. Know which teams can compete away from home and also which schools have a fan base that will travel and give them an edge in the postseason.

    Motivation

    Conference tournaments can produce surprise results, with top-seed schools bowing out early on. There are a number of power program coaches – already pegged with a respectable seed in the NCAA - who have admitted that they don’t care about the conference title and would rather have their guys fresh for the national tournament.

    On the flip side of this, you’ll have a number of bubble teams that need to either have a strong showing or win the conference tournament outright for a chance to hear their name called on Selection Sunday – giving bettors a little extra incentive to back them against the spread. And, as always, you’ll have some losing programs that just want to get a terrible season over with. Buyer beware when it comes to those teams looking ahead to life without losing hoops.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-05-2018 at 12:14 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Dunkel

    Monday, March 5



    Bowling Green @ Central Michigan

    Game 715-716
    March 5, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Bowling Green
    52.874
    Central Michigan
    57.412
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Central Michigan
    by 4 1/2
    154
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Central Michigan
    by 8 1/2
    148
    Dunkel Pick:
    Bowling Green
    (+8 1/2); Over

    Northern Illinois @ Kent State

    Game 717-718
    March 5, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Northern Illinois
    47.257
    Kent State
    51.408
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kent State
    by 4
    151
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kent State
    by 6 1/2
    146 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Northern Illinois
    (+6 1/2); Over

    Ohio @ Miami-OH

    Game 719-720
    March 5, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ohio
    49.845
    Miami-OH
    53.769
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami-OH
    by 4
    135
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Miami-OH
    by 2 1/2
    141 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami-OH
    (-2 1/2); Under

    Akron @ Western Michigan

    Game 721-722
    March 5, 2018 @ 7:45 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Akron
    46.342
    Western Michigan
    56.874
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Western Michigan
    by 10 1/2
    140
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Western Michigan
    by 8
    145
    Dunkel Pick:
    Western Michigan
    (-8); Under

    Cleveland State @ Oakland

    Game 723-724
    March 5, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland State
    00.000
    Oakland
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cleveland State

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cleveland State

    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland State
    ( );

    WI-Milwaukee @ Wright State

    Game 725-726
    March 5, 2018 @ 9:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    WI-Milwaukee
    00.000
    Wright State
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    WI-Milwaukee

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    WI-Milwaukee

    Dunkel Pick:
    WI-Milwaukee
    ( );

    William & Mary @ Coll of Charleston

    Game 727-728
    March 5, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    William & Mary
    00.000
    Coll of Charlesto
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    William & Mary

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    William & Mary

    Dunkel Pick:
    William & Mary
    ( );

    NC-Wilmington @ Northeastern

    Game 729-730
    March 5, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NC-Wilmington
    00.000
    Northeastern
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NC-Wilmington

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NC-Wilmington

    Dunkel Pick:
    NC-Wilmington
    ( );

    San Francisco @ Gonzaga

    Game 731-732
    March 5, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    55.673
    Gonzaga
    71.709
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 16
    137
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Gonzaga
    by 13
    140 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Gonzaga
    (-13); Under

    Brigham Young @ St Mary's

    Game 733-734
    March 5, 2018 @ 11:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Brigham Young
    60.104
    St Mary's
    67.253
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    St Mary's
    by 7
    132
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    St Mary's
    by 5
    137
    Dunkel Pick:
    St Mary's
    (-5); Under

    North Dakota St @ South Dakota St

    Game 735-736
    March 5, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    North Dakota St
    00.000
    South Dakota St
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    North Dakota St

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    North Dakota St

    Dunkel Pick:
    North Dakota St
    ( );

    Denver @ South Dakota

    Game 737-738
    March 5, 2018 @ 9:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    00.000
    South Dakota
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver

    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    ( );

    Fairfield @ Iona

    Game 739-740
    March 5, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Fairfield
    00.000
    Iona
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Fairfield

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Fairfield

    Dunkel Pick:
    Fairfield
    ( );

    E Tenn State @ NC-Greensboro

    Game 741-742
    March 5, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    E Tenn State
    00.000
    NC-Greensboro
    00.000
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    E Tenn State

    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    E Tenn State

    Dunkel Pick:
    E Tenn State
    ( );

    Delaware State @ NC A&T

    Game 743-744
    March 5, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Delaware State
    32.217
    NC A&T
    39.336
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NC A&T
    by 7
    144
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NC A&T
    by 10
    140
    Dunkel Pick:
    Delaware State
    (+10); Over

    MD-Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State

    Game 745-746
    March 5, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    MD-Eastern Shore
    36.423
    Norfolk State
    45.419
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Norfolk State
    by 9
    141
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Norfolk State
    by 12
    134 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    MD-Eastern Shore
    (+12); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-05-2018 at 12:15 PM.

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    NCAAB
    Long Sheet

    Monday, March 5


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    BOWLING GREEN (16 - 15) at C MICHIGAN (18 - 13) - 3/5/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOWLING GREEN is 22-48 ATS (-30.8 Units) in March games since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    C MICHIGAN is 3-1 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
    C MICHIGAN is 4-1 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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    N ILLINOIS (12 - 18) at KENT ST (15 - 16) - 3/5/2018, 7:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    N ILLINOIS is 3-1 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
    KENT ST is 2-2 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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    OHIO U (14 - 16) at MIAMI OHIO (15 - 16) - 3/5/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OHIO U is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    OHIO U is 5-1 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
    OHIO U is 6-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    AKRON (13 - 17) at W MICHIGAN (17 - 14) - 3/5/2018, 7:45 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    W MICHIGAN is 3-1 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
    AKRON is 3-1 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    SAN FRANCISCO (18 - 14) vs. GONZAGA (28 - 4) - 3/5/2018, 9:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GONZAGA is 200-160 ATS (+24.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
    GONZAGA is 151-112 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
    GONZAGA is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games in conference tournament games since 1997.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 114-70 ATS (+37.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 110-66 ATS (+37.4 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    GONZAGA is 3-3 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    GONZAGA is 6-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    BYU (23 - 9) vs. ST MARYS-CA (28 - 4) - 3/5/2018, 11:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BYU is 65-110 ATS (-56.0 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
    BYU is 36-63 ATS (-33.3 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
    BYU is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
    BYU is 36-63 ATS (-33.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
    BYU is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
    BYU is 37-62 ATS (-31.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
    BYU is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in conference tournament games since 1997.
    BYU is 89-135 ATS (-59.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
    BYU is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
    ST MARYS-CA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
    ST MARYS-CA is 81-111 ATS (-41.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    ST MARYS-CA is 6-1 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
    ST MARYS-CA is 6-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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    DELAWARE ST (4 - 27) vs. N CAROLINA A&T (18 - 13) - 3/5/2018, 6:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    DELAWARE ST is 3-2 straight up against N CAROLINA A&T over the last 3 seasons




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    MD-EAST SHORE (7 - 24) vs. NORFOLK ST (13 - 18) - 3/5/2018, 9:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    NORFOLK ST is 3-0 straight up against MD-EAST SHORE over the last 3 seasons




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    NCAAB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, March 5


    MAC tournament, campus sites
    Central Michigan outscored Bowling Green 35-11 over the last 12:41 of their 84-75 win at Bowling Green Jan 20; Chippewas were +6 (18-12) in turnovers, made 11-25 on arc. CMU won four of last five series games, lone loss being 62-59 in this event two years ago. Falcons lost four of last five visits here. Falcons are 3-6 in last six MAC tourneys, 2-4 in first round; CMU is 2-8 in last eight MAC tourneys, losing in first round last two years. Over last 15 years, WMU is 13-2 in first round of MAC tourney. CMU split its last 10 games overall after starting MAC play 2-6.

    Kent lost 75-61 at Northern Illinois Jan 2, going 4-25 on arc; Flashes are 3-2 in last five series games, but NIU won three of last four visits to Kent. Five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Kent won MAC tourney LY, with all four wins by 5 or fewer points or in OT. Flashes lost six of last nine games overall, with last three games decided by 1 or 2 points or in OT. Huskies lost eight of their last 11 games; they lost their last 12 games away from DeKalb. Over last 19 years, NIU is 4-15 in first round of MAC tourney.

    Ohio has beaten Miami twice in the last 16 days, 92-87 in OT at home, then 75-66 in Miami three nights ago; Bobcats won 14 of last 15 games with Miami, winning five of last six visits to Oxford. Ohio won four of its last five games overall; over last 13 years, they’re 11-2 in first round of MAC tourney. Miami lost six of its last eight games, with the two wins by total of five points- three of their last five games went OT. Over last nine years, RedHawks are 4-5 in first round of MAC tourney. Miami is #322 experience team that is 5-13 vs teams ranked in top 200.

    Akron lost 87-75 at Western Michigan Jan 2; Broncos shot 59.5% inside arc in their first win over Akron in last seven tries. Zips won three of their last four visits to Kalamazoo. Zips are 7-3 in last three MAC tourneys but didn’t win any titles and now they have new coach- they won their first MAC tourney game the last 13 years. Over last 15 years, WMU is 12-3 in first round of MAC tourney. Akron lost 8 of its last 11 games; the three wins were by total of 10 points. WMU lost four of its last six games overall, but they won four of last five home games.

    WCC tournament, Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
    Gonzaga is a 13-point favorite; USF’s last 16 losses in WCC tourney were all by 9 or fewer points. Gonzaga beat San Francisco twice in January, by 9-10 points; Zags won their last 13 games with USF, and 26 of last 29- they beat Dons 81-72 in this event three years ago. Gonzaga won its last 12 games overall; they also won their last 15 WCC tourney games, but Zags are 3-11 vs spread in their last 14 games this season. USF won six of its last eight games after starting season 12-12; Dons they needed OT to beat Pacific 71-70 in first round Saturday.

    BYU won its last seven WCC tourney games that weren’t against Gonzaga/St Mary’s, but is 0-5 in WCC tourney games against the WCC’s top two teams. Cougars lost twice to St Mary’s this year, by 10 in OT at home, by 13 in Moraga. Gaels are 11-4 vs BYU in WCC meetings. BYU won five of its last seven games overall; they’re 2-5 vs top 100 teams this season, with wins over Utah Valley, Utah. St Mary’s struggled mightily with Pepperdine last night; they played only six guys, using four starters 35:00+. Gaels won last four games after consecutive losses to Gonzaga/USF.

    CAA tournament, Charleston
    Wm&Mary/Charleston split two games this year; Cougars lost 114-104 in OT at W&M nine days ago, after Tribe blew a 16-point 2nd half lead. W&M is 7-4 vs Charleston in CAA meetings. Wm&Mary is 8-4 in last four CAA tourneys, losing in finals in 2014, 2015- they’ve never been in NCAAs. Wm&Mary split its last eight games overall; they played only six guys Sunday (7th guy played 2:00); four starters played 31:00+, three played 36+. Charleston won 12 of its last 13 games; they outscored Drexel 27-11 over last last 10:50 yesterday- three guys played 33:00+.

    Northeastern beat NC-Wilmington twice this year, but both games went OT; Huskies went 27-41 on foul line in last meeting. Northeastern is 4-3 in last seven series games. Seahawks are 4-3 in last seven games after a 7-17 start; they played five guys 31:00+ minutes in 93-88 win over Hofstra Sunday, when they made 14-35 on arc. UNCW won CAA tourney last two years with Keatts as HC; Northeastern won its last eight games overall- they crushed Delaware Sunday, only one Husky played more than 29:00. UNCW is 0-7 vs top 100 teams this season.

    Horizon Valley tournament, Detroit
    Milwaukee has already upset Wright State twice this year by total of six points; Panthers were 19-35 on the arc in the two games- they’re 6-4 in last 10 series games overall. Milwaukee beat Ill-Chicago 80-75 last night- they were +8 in turnovers. Three Panthers played 33:00+ in game they trailed by 7 with 12:00 left. Wright State had yesterday off; they won four of last five games and are 15-4 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Wright hasn’t won Horizon tourney since 2007, losing in finals three of last five years. Milwaukee lost to No Kentucky in Horizon finals LY.

    Oakland’s win over IUPUI Sunday was just their second conference tourney win in last eight games; Nunn played whole 40:00, Brock played 38:00. Grizzlies beat Cleveland State twice this year, by 13-16 points; Oakland won six of last seven series games. Grizzlies split pair with IUPUI this year, going 8-31 on arc in 74-67 loss at IUPUI two weeks ago. Vikings are playing 3rd game in four nights after ousting #1 seed NKU Saturday; CSU won five of its last seven games after starting season 6-20. Oakland is 14-5 against teams ranked outside the top 200.

    MAAC tournament, Albany
    Iona rallied from 14 down with 15:28 left to nip St Peter’s by 3 Sunday; they used three starters 32:00+. Gaels won MAAC tourney three of last five years, lost in finals the other two years; they split pair with Fairfield this year, losing last meeting 103-100 in OT, when Stags were 14-27 on arc. Iona won seven of last ten series games; teams split the last six. Fairfield won their last seven games after being 10-15 on Feb 12; Stags are playing 4th game in five nights- they beat Quinnipiac by 10 last nite- two guys played the whole 40:00, another Stag played 38:00.

    Southern Conference tournament, Asheville, NC
    East Tennessee State beat NC-Greensboro 79-74 in SoCon final LY; now teams meet again in same spot. Home side won both UNCG-ETSU games this season; Buccaneers are 5-4 vs Greensboro in SoCon tilts. Spartans won 10 of their last 11 games; they’re 9-5 vs teams ranked in top 200. ETSU lost four of last seven games overall; only one But played more than 30:00 in a fairly easy win Sunday. UNCG beat Wofford 56-55 in semis, rallying from down 6 with 11:54 left and surviving an 8-28 day on arc. Only one Spartan played more than 29:00.

    Summit tournament, Sioux Falls, SD
    South Dakota State beat North Dakota State twice this year, by 7-19 points; Jackrabbits won four of last six series games- teams split pair of Summit tourney meetings in 2015-16. North Dakota State lost six of last eight D-I games; they’re 2-8 this year vs teams ranked in top 200. Bison damn near blew 23-point 2nd half lead last night, but hung on to win by 4. Three Bison played 33:00+- they made 11-21 on arc. SD State won its last nine games; they had yesterday off. Jackrabbits are 19-1 since a 112-103 double OT loss at Colorado on December 15.

    Denver is 6-5 vs South Dakota in Summit meetings; teams split pair this year. Pioneers needed double OT to beat Oral Roberts 90-88 last nite- three Denver guys played 45:00+. PG Rosga played all 50:00. Denver won its last five games and eight of last ten; since 2006, they’re 1-5 in second games of conference tourneys. South Dakota won 11 of its last 13 games; they had a bye Sunday. Coyotes didn’t play anyone more than 26:00 in easy win over Neb-Omaha Saturday, so their players should have edge, with Denver playing double overtime late last night.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-05-2018 at 12:17 PM.

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    NCAAB

    Monday, March 5


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
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    WILLIAM & MARY @ COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON
    William & Mary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of William & Mary's last 19 games
    College of Charleston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of College of Charleston's last 8 games

    BOWLING GREEN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Bowling Green's last 5 games when playing Central Michigan
    Bowling Green is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 6 games
    Central Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Bowling Green

    NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ KENT STATE
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games when playing Kent State
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games
    Kent State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    Kent State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home

    OHIO @ MIAMI-OHIO
    Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami-Ohio
    Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami-Ohio
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami-Ohio's last 5 games when playing Ohio
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-Ohio's last 7 games when playing at home against Ohio

    NORTH DAKOTA STATE @ SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
    North Dakota State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing South Dakota State
    North Dakota State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing South Dakota State
    South Dakota State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    South Dakota State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    CLEVELAND STATE @ OAKLAND
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland State's last 5 games when playing Oakland
    Cleveland State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Cleveland State
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games

    FAIRFIELD @ IONA
    Fairfield is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Fairfield's last 6 games when playing Iona
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iona's last 6 games when playing Fairfield
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Iona's last 11 games

    AKRON @ WESTERN MICHIGAN
    Akron is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Western Michigan
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 5 games
    Western Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Western Michigan's last 11 games when playing Akron

    UNC WILMINGTON @ NORTHEASTERN
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of UNC Wilmington's last 5 games
    UNC Wilmington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Northeastern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northeastern's last 6 games

    SAN FRANCISCO @ GONZAGA
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Gonzaga
    Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

    EAST TENNESSEE STATE @ UNC GREENSBORO
    UNC Greensboro is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UNC Greensboro's last 6 games when playing East Tennessee State

    WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE @ WRIGHT STATE
    Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin-Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Wright State
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wright State's last 6 games when playing Wisconsin-Milwaukee
    Wright State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    DENVER @ SOUTH DAKOTA
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing South Dakota
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Dakota's last 5 games when playing Denver
    South Dakota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

    BYU @ SAINT MARY'S-CALIFORNIA
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of BYU's last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of BYU's last 6 games when playing Saint Mary's-California
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Mary's-California's last 5 games
    Saint Mary's-California is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing BYU


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    West Coast Conference Tournament semifinals betting preview and odds

    WCC Player of the Year Jock Landale had 31 points and 13 rebounds in the St. Mary's Gaels' overtime win in Provo, Utah back on December 25th.

    The semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament are set and will tip off Monday evening at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas as the upstart San Francisco Dons take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the BYU Cougars will face off against the St. Mary's Gaels.

    Tournament to be played at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada.

    San Francisco Dons vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13, 140.5)

    Seventh-ranked Gonzaga struggled to put away eighth-seeded Loyola Marymount in Saturday's quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference tournament, trailing 40-39 early in the second half and leading by just five with seven minutes to go before recording a 83-69 victory. But coach Mark Few wasn't surprised and expects another tough battle in Monday's semifinals in Las Vegas when the Bulldogs face fourth-seeded San Francisco, which edged Pacific 71-70 in overtime in the quarterfinals.

    Gonzaga faces a San Francisco squad that lost by just nine points (82-73) in Spokane in the last meeting - trailing by three points with three minutes to go. The Zags bounced back from a sluggish first half that saw them score just 29 points to shoot 79.4 percent (19-of-24) from the floor after intermission and 61.2 percent for the game against Loyola Marymount in the quarterfinals. Killian Tillie led the way with 24 points and was 5-of-5 from 3-point range while senior forward Johnathan Williams, who leads the team in both scoring (13.8) and rebounding (8.1), finished with 20 points and 10 rebounds.

    The Dons rode the backcourt of Jordan Ratinho and Frankie Ferrari into the semifinals as the duo combined for 37 points and made 8-of-16 from 3-point range. Ferrari, who leads the team in scoring (11.4), finished with 17 points and eight assists and hit a key 3-pointer near the end of regulation to get the Dons into overtime while Ratinho, who is third in scoring (10.8), finished with a game-high 20 points and sank a 3-pointer to start OT - a lead USF never relinquished. Freshman guard Souley Boum (11.2), who had 22 points in a 75-65 home loss to the Zags on Jan. 13, and senior forward Chase Foster (10.2) also average in double figures for the Dons.

    BETTING STATS:



    BETTING ACTION AND MOVEMENT:

    The pointspread opened with Gonzaga installed as lofty 13-point favorites and the total set at 140.5. As of Monday morning neither number has moved despite 79 percent of the pointspread action on Covers siding with the Zags.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Dons are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.
    * Bulldogs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. West Coast.
    * Over is 7-2 in Dons' last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
    * Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs' last 4 neutral site games.
    * Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.




    Brigham Young Cougars vs. St. Mary's Gaels (-5, 136.5)

    No. 20 Saint Mary's nearly saw it's NCAA Tournament bubble burst in Saturday's West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals in Las Vegas, needing to rally from a 15-point first half deficit to edge No. 10 seed Pepperdine 69-66. The second-seeded Gaels now move on to a semifinal matchup Monday with third-seed BYU, an 85-79 winner over San Diego, with seventh-ranked Gonzaga likely looming in Tuesday night's championship final.

    BYU will be trying to snap a five-game losing streak to the Gaels, including a 74-64 overtime loss at home on Dec. 30. The Cougars will also be trying to avenge a 81-50 loss to Saint Mary's in last year's WCC Tourney semifinals. The one-two punch of junior guard Elijah Bryant (17.9 points, 6.4 rebounds) and sophomore forward Yoeli Childs (17.5, 8.7), who combined for 49 points in the quarterfinal win over San Diego, lead the Cougars with sophomore guard TJ Haws (12.0) also averaging in double figures.

    Pepperdine, which finished its injury-plagued season with a measly 6-26 record, sent jaws dropping by jumping out to a 19-4 lead on the Gaels and led 62-57 with 4:17 to go. But forward Calvin Hermanson came to the rescue, sinking three consecutive 3-pointers over a two-minute span. WCC Player of the Year Jock Landale, a 6-11 senior center who is averaging a league-leading 21.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, presents a big problem for a lot of teams but has been especially troublesome for BYU. Landale had 31 points and 13 rebounds in the overtime win in Provo and finished with 32 points and 14 boards in a 75-62 victory over the Cougars on Jan. 25 at home.

    BETTING STATS:



    BETTING ACTION AND MOVEMENT:

    St. Mary's opened as 5.5-point favorites Sunday evening and, despite having 77 percent of the Covers pointspread action on their side, that number was dropped to -5 on Monday morning. The total hit betting boards at 136.5 and has yet to move.

    MATCHUP CHART:



    TRENDS:

    * Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
    * Gaels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. West Coast.
    * Over is 6-1 in Cougars' last 7 overall.
    * Under is 37-14 in Gaels' last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
    * Favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
    Last edited by Udog; 03-05-2018 at 08:23 PM.

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