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Thread: Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/21

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    Default Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 2/21

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, February 21

    Good Luck on day #52 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    Six top prospects for the Oakland A’s:

    1) AJ Puk, P— Highly touted lefty is only 6-14, 3.82 in 34 minor league starts, albeit with 224 strikeouts in 158 IP.

    2) Franklin Barreto, 2B/SS— Hit .197 in 71 big league AB’s last season.

    4) Dustin Fowler, OF— Acquired in Sonny Gray trade after tearing a patellar tendon in his knee

    8) James Kaprielian, P— Injury-plagued hurler has thrown 29 innings in three years.

    14) Sheldon Neuse, 3B— Hit .373 in 18 games in the AA Texas League LY.

    20) Renato Nunez 3B/OF— Hit 30 HR’s in AAA LY, then went 3-15 in the big leagues.


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) Last time an NFL team was sold, the Buffalo Bills went for $1.4B; when the Carolina Panthers are sold, they’re expected to go for around $2B.

    A billionaire hedge fund trader who currently owns 5% of the Pittsburgh Steelers is the favorite to buy the Carolina team.

    12) Josh Donaldson is a free agent after this season and he naturally wants a long-term deal from Toronto, but he’ll be 33 in December and he ain’t going to get one. Teams are looking at back-loaded deals that ARod, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols got and they’re not going to be tossing that kind of money around anymore.

    11) Gonzaga won its last nine first round games in the NCAA tournament; last time they lost a first round game? To Davidson in 2008; Davidson had a pretty good guard named Curry.

    10) Big 14 tournament is a week earlier than normal this year because it is in New York City, so those teams that make the NCAA’s will have an extra week before the tournament begins. Will it be an advantage to have that extra week off? Gonzaga coach Mark Few says that it is good for his team to have some time off before the NCAA’s.

    9) Middle Tennessee State’s basketball team is ranked in the top 25 for the first time ever.

    8) Los Angeles Angels lowered their fence in right-center field from 18 feet to 8 feet high.

    7) Kentucky 87, Arkansas 72— Razorbacks jumped out to an 11-0 lead, but Kentucky rallied for a solid road win.

    6) Citadel 84, East Tennessee State 82— Not often a 20-point underdog wins, but it happened here.

    5) Ole Miss 90, Missouri 87— Mizzou was favored by 9.5 points, first time in four years they were favored by 9+ points in a conference game. It didn’t go well against an Ole Miss squad that had lost seven games in a row coming in.

    4) New Mexico 119, Wyoming 114— Zero defense was played in this game, but there was a lot of fouling— 81 free throws were taken in this game.

    3) This is first time since 2011 there will be no teams who go unbeaten in conference play.

    2) With spring training starting, that also means fantasy baseball season is underway. I’ve had Giancarlo Stanton on my dynasty league team since he was an 18-year old in the Florida State League. I got a trade offer this week; two minor leaguers for Stanton, who hit 59 HR’s last year.

    Oy.

    1) With March Madness around he corner, it bears repeating that the last five college basketball national championship games were all decided by 6 or fewer points.

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    NHL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, February 21


    Blackhawks won five of last seven games with Ottawa; six of last nine series games went over. Senators lost three of their last four visits to Chicago. Ottawa is 3-4 in its last seven games; they lost last four road games. Six of their last seven games went over total. Chicago lost nine of its last ten games overall, losing four of last five at home. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

    Home side won last six Dallas-Anaheim games; Stars lost their last three games in the Pond by combined score of 9-3. Four of last six series games went over. Dallas Stars won six of last eight games overall, three of last four on road; three of their last four games went over. Anaheim won its last three games, allowing total of four goals- they won seven of last nine home games. Ducks’ last six games stayed under.

    Golden Knights won 4-2 in Saddledome Jan 30 in their only meeting with Calgary. Flames lost three of last four games overall; they won four of last six road games. Three of their last four games went over total. Las Vegas won three of its last four games, all at home. Six of their last nine games went over the total.




    NHL

    Wednesday, February 21


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
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    OTTAWA @ CHICAGO
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games on the road
    Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chicago's last 18 games at home

    DALLAS @ ANAHEIM
    Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 5 games
    Anaheim is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

    CALGARY @ VEGAS
    Calgary is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
    Calgary is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    Vegas is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games
    Vegas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-21-2018 at 12:43 PM.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, February 21



    Ottawa @ Chicago

    Game 1-2
    February 21, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    10.583
    Chicago
    11.676
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 1
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    -170
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (-170); Under

    Dallas @ Anaheim


    Game 3-4
    February 21, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    11.796
    Anaheim
    10.335
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 1 1/2
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Anaheim
    -125
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+105); Over

    Calgary @ Vegas


    Game 5-6
    February 21, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    10.231
    Vegas
    11.312
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Vegas
    by 1
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Vegas
    -180
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Vegas
    (-180); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-21-2018 at 12:43 PM.

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    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, February 21


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OTTAWA (21-28-0-9, 51 pts.) at CHICAGO (25-27-0-8, 58 pts.) - 2/21/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 21-37 ATS (+64.6 Units) in all games this season.
    OTTAWA is 44-42 ATS (+94.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 25-35 ATS (+69.9 Units) in all games this season.
    CHICAGO is 4-9 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
    CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS (-12.1 Units) in February games this season.
    CHICAGO is 7-15 ATS (+22.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
    CHICAGO is 6-14 ATS (-11.1 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.
    CHICAGO is 355-353 ATS (+712.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
    CHICAGO is 1-6 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 3-2-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DALLAS (34-21-0-4, 72 pts.) at ANAHEIM (30-20-0-11, 71 pts.) - 2/21/2018, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DALLAS is 14-32 ATS (+46.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    ANAHEIM is 543-434 ATS (+50.6 Units) second half of the season since 1996.
    ANAHEIM is 434-436 ATS (-111.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
    ANAHEIM is 28-18 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    DALLAS is 45-22 ATS (+18.0 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ANAHEIM is 3-3-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.3 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CALGARY (30-21-0-9, 69 pts.) at VEGAS (39-16-0-4, 82 pts.) - 2/21/2018, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 31-48 ATS (-20.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    VEGAS is 39-20 ATS (+59.4 Units) in all games this season.
    VEGAS is 14-3 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
    VEGAS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a division game this season.
    VEGAS is 8-2 ATS (+10.2 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games this season.
    CALGARY is 10-4 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons.
    CALGARY is 8-3 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
    CALGARY is 23-12 ATS (+10.7 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    VEGAS is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    VEGAS is 1-0-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-21-2018 at 12:44 PM.

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    No really useful info in this one, guys. I just thought it was kinda interesting. It's got me thinking about a trip to Nevada while they're coming down the stretch.



    Gambling is the Vegas Golden Knights' secret weapon
    Patrick Everson

    “The betting activity on Golden Knights games is higher, as a percentage, than any team in any sport that I’ve ever seen." - Jason Simbal, VP of risk management, CG Technology.

    On a 60-degree evening outside T-Mobile Arena, still a couple of hours before faceoff, thousands of hockey fans are already congregating for the NHL game between the visiting Edmonton Oilers and host Vegas Golden Knights.

    Many fans are hanging out at The Park, an adjacent stretch of trendy restaurants, at which they fill up on food and beverage. And some fans also make a point of popping into one of the nearby sportsbooks to get a wager down before the puck drops.

    Tim Ryan, sporting a Golden Knights jersey, is one such fan.

    “Oh absolutely,” Ryan says, noting his modest $10 moneyline wager on the home team. “A lot of these people here are putting money down. I think locals coming through the casino are throwing down 10 bucks. If they came from Edmonton, they’re putting money down on the Oilers, though that’s not the brightest thing to do.”

    Ryan isn’t saying that just because he’s here from Calgary (a fierce Edmonton rival), nor because the Montreal Canadiens – whom he’ll see visit the Knights two nights later – are his first hockey love. He’s saying it because Vegas, a first-year expansion team, has the best home record in the NHL and is in first place in the Western Conference.

    In fact, in true Sin City serendipity, Vegas is the best bet in hockey with a 39-16-2-2 record producing +21.34 units of profit for NHL bettors ($2,134 if you wagered $100 on Vegas in each of those games) and currently sits as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup at +500 after opening as big as +2,000 before the start of the 2017-18 season.

    A few yards away from Ryan, hundreds of Oilers fans have pretty much taken over the indoor/outdoor Beerhaus for pregame festivities, and indeed, some are getting down on the visiting team tonight.

    “It’s already gonna be exciting, but this is gonna make me cheer even louder,” Edmonton resident Taylor Chambers says of his bet on the Oilers. “Every shot, every goal is gonna matter.”

    As Ryan adds, “It’s a great atmosphere.”

    Exactly. Just two-thirds of the way through Vegas’ inaugural season, T-Mobile Arena is the talk of the town – and of the entire NHL – for its incredible energy, from faceoff to final horn. And sports betting is part of the reason why.

    ---

    Ken Boehlke was on to the Vegas Golden Knights well before they were the Vegas Golden Knights. In August 2015, more than nine months before the NHL approved this city for an expansion team, Boehlke founded the website/blog SinBin.Vegas, which would ultimately cover all things hockey in Vegas.

    Despite growing up in Chicago with the Blackhawks, he was never much of a hockey fan until he launched SinBin. But he’s all in now, seeing firsthand the amped-up atmosphere at T-Mobile a couple dozen times already, while also traveling to several Knights road games, giving him the ability to compare venues.

    Of his hometown Chicago, Boehlke says, “The national anthem is on another level. Who else screams during the national anthem? It’s a battle between the crowd to belt it out and the vocalist to sing over them.”

    He was at the Knights’ season opener in Dallas. “Not a bad atmosphere, but it wasn’t memorable, which really surprised me, because it was opening night for a Stars team that made some offseason moves. Not dead, but not memorable.”

    Perennial Western Conference contender Anaheim’s home atmosphere was nothing to write home about, either, on Boehlke’s two visits. Nor was a Super Bowl Sunday clash between the Knights and Capitals in Washington, D.C.

    “It was a library,” he says.

    The only arena atmosphere that came close to measuring up was Los Angeles’ Staples Center, where Boehlke visited for the December 28 Knights-Kings contest, in which Vegas notched a 3-2 overtime victory.

    “That was the exact opposite. It was electric, the closest thing I’ve been to compared with T-Mobile Arena,” Boehlke says. “But even that, it just wasn’t the same. I haven’t experienced anything close to the atmosphere at T-Mobile for the Golden Knights.”

    So from someone familiar with T-Mobile and many other NHL venues, does the ability to legally wager help drive that atmosphere?

    “I think it absolutely has some sort of effect,” Boehlke says. “I know plenty of fans who go to the games and bet on the games. I know two people, season-ticket holders, their tickets are $38 apiece (per game). And they bet to try to win that back each game.”

    That’s certainly paid off when betting on the Knights, who are a league-leading 22-5-1-1 in their home building. However, Las Vegas native and Knights season-ticket holder Vince Rampa takes a different approach to his wagering, going for the win-win situation.

    “The price on Vegas at home has been super high sometimes,” Rampa says, noting the Knights’ moneyline odds can approach or even exceed -200 (wagered $200 to win $100) with that home-ice success earning hockey bettors +12.14 units (or $1,214 if you wagered $100 on each of those home stands) heading into the weekend. “So I’ve got kind of like a running gag, a superstition. I have this thing where I bet on the road team. If the Knights win, that’s great, and if the road team wins, I pick up a nice chunk of change on a big dog. If the Knights lose, they paid for my evening out, beers and all, because of my bet on the road dog.”

    Like Boehlke, Rampa has seen NHL games in several venues. Before Las Vegas got its team, he’d always been a Flyers fan, so he’s attended games in Philadelphia, and he travels to Flyers road games against Arizona, Anaheim and Los Angeles.

    "The other arenas, I’m not saying they’re morgues, but it’s noticeably different," he says. “Here, you’ve got the crowd, the entertainment, the betting element. That’s definitely got something to do with it. The crowd is more into it. Obviously, if you’ve got some juice on the game, you’re more into the game all the way, you’re forced to pay attention the whole way. When I’m at games in different states and I can’t load my mobile app to bet, it’s disheartening.”

    Covers reached out via phone call and email to the Golden Knights for comment on the influence gambling has on their home atmosphere - and possible home-ice success - but has yet to receive an answer from the team at the time of publication.

    ---

    Boehlke, Rampa, Ryan and Chambers represent only a few examples, perhaps not enough to say that fans – with wagers on Vegas and the road team alike – really contribute to the roof-raising atmosphere at Golden Knights home games. But where the vulcanized rubber meets the road is in the statistics-don’t-lie business of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

    Jason Simbal, vice president of CG Technology, says his company’s sportsbooks – particularly at The Cosmopolitan a couple blocks from T-Mobile, but also away from the Strip in shops such as the M and Palms – have seen the fans and their money firsthand.

    “The betting activity on Golden Knights games is higher, as a percentage, than any team in any sport that I’ve ever seen,” Simbal says. “Twenty-seven percent of every NHL bet we’ve taken this season has been on games involving the Golden Knights. No other team in any other sport comes close to that.”

    In the NHL, no other team is drawing more than 8 percent of tickets at CG sportsbooks, including the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins (6 percent) and the perennial contender Blackhawks (7.6 percent). And the percentage of money on Knights games isn’t far behind the ticket percentage.

    “It’s 25 percent of dollars wagered on the NHL, betting on the game – moneyline, totals, puckline,” Simbal says. “So, one of every four dollars bet is on Knights games.”

    And Vegas is such a magnet for fans of road teams – particularly on 65-degree mid-winter days, when it’s perhaps below zero in Chicago or New York or any number of Canadian cities – that action on the opponent is a big driver for the books.

    “At our tourist locations, mainly at The Cosmopolitan, the property is littered with those jerseys, and they’re betting on those teams,” Simbal says, specifically pointing to the January 7 Rangers-Knights game. “I was at the book at 4 p.m. that day, a lot of Rangers fans making bets on the Rangers.”

    Lest anyone think that leads to the Knights losing home-ice and home-betting advantage, Simbal quells such a theory.

    “I know for a fact that at our local books, they’re betting the Knights, because we need the other team almost every game,” he says. “Especially when we do proposition bets. It’s all local books and local accounts betting on the Knights players.”

    ---

    With all those wagers coming in on both teams, it’s fair to assume many bettors – locals and visitors – ultimately make their way to the arena to help create a mind-blowing hockey climate. Simbal admits the Vegas franchise is bolstered by the perfect storm of first being a quality team, coming to town at the right time in an upward-trending economy, and also as a rallying point for the community, with its first season starting less than a week after the October 1 tragedy.

    But no doubt, being the gambling capital of the world also contributes to the T-Mobile temperament.

    “I would imagine when it’s your team, and you have your hard-earned money on that team, you might yell a little longer and a little louder,” Simbal says, noting he’s attended several Knights games. “You’re seeing that with fans of teams for 20 years and with new fans of the Knights, putting a few bucks on them as part of a fun night out. What’s another 20 to 50 bucks to bet on the team you’re gonna root for? The fact that anybody who wants to bet on the game legally can is clearly adding to the atmosphere of the game and generally how popular the team has become.”

    Jeffrey Price and Angel Sparks have hit four Knights games so far, traveling all the way from Lethbridge, Alberta, to do so. On this night, Price is in his Oilers jersey and girlfriend Sparks is donning the Knights gear, though both are fans of the Vegas franchise. Price hasn’t put down a bet yet, but having been in the middle of Vegas’ historic first season, he agrees that fans with a little money on the line help add to the in-game aura.

    “Oh absolutely. It’s like nothing I’ve ever experienced,” Price says. “The energy is absolutely incredible. It’s Vegas. I’m sure there are tons of people throwing down money, because they want to get another part of the Vegas experience.”

    Boehlke says betting surely makes those away fans a bit more boisterous, so Vegas fans have to match or beat that enthusiasm level. It becomes something of a competition, settled not only by the final score, but by who gets to a cash a ticket after exiting the arena.

    “Is there anything worse than sitting in the sportsbook, having $500 on a team, and the guy behind you is screaming for the other team? Not only do you want to win that bet, you want to shut that guy up,” Boehlke says, noting the same situation exists inside T-Mobile Arena, with Knights bettors very often getting the best of the guests. “Not only are you gonna walk out of the arena glad, but you get to cash a ticket on their sadness.”

    Chambers perhaps best summarizes that experience with his bottom-line comment.

    “Any moment in the game can affect the outcome of income.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 02-21-2018 at 12:45 PM.

  7. #7
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    Great move here by the Flames to avoid "the flu" in Vegas tonight: invite the players' moms along on the trip to Sin City.
    Calgary is around +140 vs. GoldenKnights (-160).

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