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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Conference Championships (Sun., Jan. 21)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Conference Championships (Sun., Jan. 21)

    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, January 14

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    NFL Conference Championship opening line report: Eagles playoff home dogs once again
    Patrick Everson

    “Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag.”

    After an exhilarating end to the NFL divisional playoff round, it’s on to the conference championship games, with Super Bowl berths on the line. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early movement, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-8)

    Jacksonville is the surprise guest of the four still around for this playoff party, finally getting a boost from its often inept offense. The third-seeded Jaguars (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS) forced two turnovers that led to 14 points Sunday at No. 2 Pittsburgh, but also piled up 31 more points of their own volition on the way to a 45-42 shootout victory as a 7-point underdog.

    Meanwhile, there was nothing unusual or unexpected about top-seeded New England earning yet another trip to the AFC title game. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS) spotted Tennessee a 7-0 lead Saturday, then steamrolled to a 35-14 victory as a hefty 13.5-point home favorite.

    “We didn’t even want to tempt the bettors with anything closer to a touchdown, and it’s a good thing, because as expected, all of the early money is on New England,” Cooley said. “This spread is probably going to creep north as the week goes on, but I’d be shocked if it went off at double digits. I’m certainly not expecting Jacksonville to win with Blake Bortles at quarterback, but that defense could keep things interesting.”

    After opening the Pats -8, Bookmaker.eu was already up to 9 by late Sunday night. (Find more online sportsbook reviews at OddsShark.com)

    Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

    By way of one of the most amazing plays in NFL postseason history, Minnesota (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) could still become the first team to play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. The second-seeded Vikings appeared dead in the water Sunday, trailing 24-23 at home after No. 4 New Orleans hit a field goal with just 25 seconds remaining.

    The Vikings faced third-and-10 on their own 39 with 10 seconds left and no timeouts when quarterback Case Keenum hit wideout Stefon Diggs 30 yards downfield near the sideline. Inexplicably, Saints safety Marcus Williams completely whiffed on what would have been a game-ending tackle if made inbounds, and Diggs raced to the end zone to give the Vikes a 29-24 victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

    So Minnesota gets an NFC championship date with No. 1 seed Philadelphia, a team that wasn’t expected to survive without QB Carson Wentz, but remains alive and of course with home-field advantage. The Eagles (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) went off as 2.5-point underdogs to defending NFC champ and No. 6 seed Atlanta on Saturday, but scrapped their way to a 15-10 victory.

    “Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag,” Cooley said. “We saw a lot of moneyline money on that side against Atlanta, and will likely get the same action here. Minnesota was fortunate to get a win in the divisional round, but it was by far the better team.

    “Two fantastic defenses on display,” Cooley said of the upcoming NFC title tilt, “which should make for an exciting game for the football purists.”

    Minnesota drew the early action Sunday night at Bookmaker.eu, bumping the line up to 3.5.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-21-2018 at 01:11 PM.

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    NFL Conference Championship Sunday's biggest betting mismatches
    Monty Andrews

    Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9, 46.5)

    Jaguars' ball-hawking prowess vs. Patriots' lack of forced turnovers

    One of the greatest quarterbacks in history is one win away from yet another Super Bowl trip, as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship game. Brady had little trouble against the Tennessee Titans last week, but should have a much tougher time against a Jaguars defense that tormented opposing QBs all season. New England is a big favorite, but Jacksonville has a sizeable edge when it comes to forcing turnovers - and that could even things up this Sunday.

    Few teams provided as many defensive highlights this season as the Jaguars, who surrendered the third-fewest points per game (17.4) while limiting teams to a paltry 4.7 yards per play. Jacksonville unrelenting defensive pressure also resulted in a whopping 33 turnovers forced - second only to the Baltimore Ravens. As a result, the Jaguars finished the regular season as one of only six teams with a double-digit turnover margin (plus-10) despite having one of the shakiest pass offenses in football.

    New England was very careful with the football this season, turning the ball over just 12 times; only the Kansas City Chiefs had fewer turnovers. Yet, while Brady and Co. took care of the pigskin on offense, the Patriots' defense struggled to produce turnovers. New England finished with just 18 forced turnovers during the season (12 interceptions, six fumble recoveries), ahead of only seven other teams - only one of whom reached the postseason. Look for the Jags to exploit the turnover mismatch this Sunday.

    Patriots' surging rushing game vs. Jaguars' suspect run D

    Much of the focus will be on how Brady fares against a Jacksonville defense that produced the most sacks in the NFL during the regular season. But a handful of other matchups are also worth watching. How will Blake Bortles fare in hostile territory, having produced one of the worst completion rates of any starting QB this season? How will Rob Gronkowski match up against a Jags defense that allowed just six red-zone targets to tight ends? And can Jacksonville's run D contain the Pats' solid ground attack?

    The answer to the final question could very well decide the AFC Championship. And if past history is any indicator, New England could find itself with a decided edge in that matchup. The Patriots have averaged 147 rushing yards over their past three games, all lopsided wins - and while you could attribute the total to an increase in rush attempts, New England still averaged a robust 4.3 yards per carry in those games. Only the Denver Broncos have averaged more rushing yards over their most recent three-game stretch.

    The Jaguars defended the pass well in 2017, but struggled against the run. They rank in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed (115.2) even after limiting Pittsburgh to 83 yards on the ground this past week. That was more a product of game flow, anyhow; things will be much different against the Patriots, which will put added pressure on a defense that allowed nine more rushing yards per game this season than it did in 2016. If the Jags can't halt the Pats' run game, this could be a laugher.


    Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5, 38)

    Vikings' third-down dominance vs. Eagles' recent drive-extension woes

    Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive struggle Sunday evening as the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles square off with a spot in the Super Bowl at stake. The Eagles won a defensive slog against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend to advance, while the Vikings needed an incredible last-second touchdown pass to stun the new Orleans Saints. Minnesota is a modest favorite for this one, and will look to take advantage of a significant mismatch when it comes to third-down execution.

    The Vikings were the top defensive team in the league by several metrics, most notably how they fared in third-down situations. Minnesota has allowed teams to score or extend drives on a minuscule 25.12 percent of their third-down opportunities; no other team in the NFL has a mark lower than 31.6 percent. All those crushed drives helped Minnesota finish second in the NFL in average possession rate at 54.15 percent - and if that happens again Sunday, the Super Bowl will have the host team on the field.

    A look at the overall picture would suggest that the Eagles actually fared well on third downs, converting at a 42.0-percent clip - eighth-best in the league. But the majority of those conversions came with Carson Wentz under center - and now that he's out for the season, the Philadelphia offense has been far less effective. The Eagles have made good on just 23.7 percent of their third-down chances over the past three games - the third-worst rate of any team over its most recent three-game stretch.

    Vikings' so-so ground game vs. Eagles' sensational run D

    With both teams relying on journeyman quarterbacks who didn't begin the season as starters - and with this game being played outdoors - the NFC Championship could very well be decided by the respective ground games. And while both teams have been terrific at defending the run this season, the Eagles also ran the ball extremely well, averaging the third-most yards per game on a healthy 4.4 yards-per-carry average. The Vikings had the volume, but that quantity didn't translate to quality.

    Minnesota's 1-2 punch of Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon certainly produced plenty of points; the Vikings averaged a rushing touchdown per game this season, the sixth-highest scoring rate in football. But Murray, McKinnon and the rest of the Minnesota rushing game averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, good for 23rd out of 32 teams. Minnesota does have the eighth-highest yards-per-game average in the league, but that's more a product of running the ball more than 31 times per game.

    The Vikings might not get 30+ rushes Sunday - and even if they do, there's no guarantee they will be able to do anything with them. The Eagles are the class of the league when it comes to run defense, leading the NFL in fewest rushing yards surrendered per game (79.6). And while that was largely due to teams skewing heavily toward the pass, Philadelphia also held opposing rushers to a 3.8 YPC average - sixth-best in the league. A repeat performance would almost certainly put the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-21-2018 at 01:13 PM.

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Conference Championships


    Sunday, January 21

    Jacksonville @ New England

    Game 311-312
    January 21, 2018 @ 3:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    136.023
    New England
    142.198
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 6
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 9 1/2
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (+9 1/2); Under

    Minnesota @ Philadelphia


    Game 313-314
    January 21, 2018 @ 6:40 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    141.567
    Philadelphia
    140.012
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 1 1/2
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 3 1/2
    38 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (+3 1/2); Under





    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Conference Championships


    Sunday, January 21

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    JACKSONVILLE (12 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 3) - 1/21/2018, 3:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    JACKSONVILLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MINNESOTA (14 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (14 - 3) - 1/21/2018, 6:40 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Conference Championships


    Last four years, favorites are 7-1 vs spread in conference championship games.

    Vikings (14-3) @ Eagles (14-3)— Minnesota was 5-0 LY when they came to Philly and lost 21-10, in game where total yardage was 282-239, Vikings. Minnesota OC Shurmur was Eagles’ OC from 2013-15; QB’s Keenum/Foles were teammates with Rams. This is first time in Super Bowl era that neither QB in a conference final started for his team in Week 1. Vikings won 12 of last 13 games; they’re 6-2 on road this year, 4-2 on grass, 4-2 vs spread as road favorites. Eagles won four of last five games, but scored 19-0-15 points in last three games, with backup QB Foles in for injured starter Wentz. Philly is 8-1 at home this year, is 3-2 vs spread as an underdog. Favorites are 3-1-1 vs spread in last five NFC title games. Since 2005, road favorites are 1-2-1 vs spread in conference title games. Vikings lost seven of last eight visits here; they’re 0-3 vs Eagles in playoff games, with last one in Metrodome in 2008.

    Jaguars (12-6) @ Patriots (14-3)— Brady’s right hand is main question here; line dropped from 9 to 7.5, but no one really knows how bad it is, other than he didn’t practice Thursday. Patriots are in AFC title game for 7th year in row; they split last six AFC title games, are 7-4 in AFC title game in Belichick era, 5-1 at home (3-3 vs spread). Pats are 10-1 vs Jacksonville, with only loss in ’98 playoff game in Florida. Jags are 0-7 in Foxboro, with six losses by 11+ points- they lost 51-17 in last visit here, two years ago. This year, Jaguars are 4-2 vs spread as underdogs- they’re on road for 4th time in last five weeks. NE won 12 of its last 13 games; they covered their last six home games, but two of their three losses this year came at home. Looks like Jaguars will catch a break with the weather- high temps in Foxboro Sunday should be in upper 40’s.

    Jacksonville @ New England (-7.5, 45.5)
    Minnesota (-3, 38.5) @ Philadelphia




    NFL

    Conference Championships


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    Trend Report
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    Sunday, January 21

    JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND
    Jacksonville is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA
    Minnesota is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
    Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
    Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-21-2018 at 01:14 PM.

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    NFL

    Sunday, January 21


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    AFC Championship Game betting preview and odds: Jaguars at Patriots
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    Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-7.5, 46.5)

    Not satisfied with a worst-to-first finish in their division, the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars look to continue their remarkable run when they visit the top-seeded New England Patriots for Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Jacksonville will have to solve the most successful coach-quarterback tandem in league history, although four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady missed practice again Thursday with an injured right hand.

    The Patriots are appearing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game, but coach Bill Belichick dismissed the idea that the been-there-won-that factor gives his team a huge edge. "I don’t think experience has anything to do with that," Belichick, who has guided New England to seven Super Bowls - winning five - since 2001, told reporters. "It is what happens Sunday, not what happened last year, two years ago, five years ago, 15 years ago, 1996 or whatever it is. Those games don’t make any difference, with all due respect." The third-seeded Jaguars are brimming with confidence, with star cornerback Jalen Ramsey predicting a victory over the Patriots in the wake of last week's 45-42 win at No. 2 seed Pittsburgh. Coach Doug Marrone acknowledged that New England presents "a great challenge for us" and fully expects to see Brady, saying, “I’m sure he could probably throw left-handed if he has a problem with his right hand and throw just as well.”

    TV:
    3:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Pats opened as 8.5-point home chalk and was quickly bet up to -9.5, however, money has been coming in on the Jags pushing that line down at most shops too -7.5 heading into the weekend. The total hit the betting board at 47 and is down slightly to 46.5.

    WEATHER REPORT:




    INJURY REPORT:


    Jaguars - S Tashaun Gipson (Probable, Foot), WR Jaydon Mickens (Hamstring), OL Chris Reed (Questionable, Knee), WR Jaelen Strong (I-R, Knee), WR Arrelious Benn (I-R, Knee), LS Matt Overton (I-R, Shoulder).

    Patriots - RB Rex Burkhead (Probable, Knee), DL Alan Branch (Questionable, Knee), RB Mike Gillislee (Questionable, Knee), WR Malcom Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), DT Vincent Valentine (Questionable, Knee), OL Marcus Cannon (I-R, Ankle), OL Tony Garcia (I-R, Illness).

    ABOUT THE JAGUARS (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS, 9-9 O/U):
    Jacksonville features the league's top-ranked rushing attack led by rookie Leonard Fournette, who ran for 109 yards and three touchdowns last week but also nicked an ankle that limited him in practice Wednesday and Thursday. Blake Bortles completed just 53.1 percent of his passes in the two playoff wins, but he has not committed a turnover after tossing five interceptions in the final two regular-season games. The Jaguars will try to slow the NFL's top offense with a defense that surrenders a league-low 169.9 yards passing while ranking second in sacks (55) and interceptions (21). Ramsey and cornerback A.J. Bouye combined for 10 picks while defensive ends Calais Campbell (14.5) and Yannick Ngakoue (12) accounted for nearly half of the team's sacks.

    ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS, 8-9 O/U):
    Brady owns the most postseason wins (26) in history and added to his playoff legacy last week, passing for more than 300 yards for the 13th time and surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. Journeyman Brian Hoyer is the only quarterback on the roster besides Brady, who hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2008 and completed at least three passes to five different receivers in last week's 35-14 rout of Tennessee. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games and added a season-high nine catches last week while tight end Rob Gronkowski has 34 receptions and four touchdowns over his last four contests. New England is vulnerable to the run, ranking 20th at 114.8 yards allowed, but it permits only 18.5 points per game.

    TRENDS:


    * Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

    * Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

    * Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 games following a straight up win.

    * Over is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 playoff home games.

    * Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New England.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road underdog Jacksonville Jaguars at a rate of 60 percent and the Over is getting 58 percent of the totals action.


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-21-2018 at 01:15 PM.

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    NFL

    Sunday, January 21


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFC Championship Game betting preview and odds: Vikings at Eagles
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 39)

    The Philadelphia Eagles attempt to hold serve at home despite being tagged as underdogs for the second consecutive contest on Sunday as they host the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. The top-seeded Eagles benefited from a late defensive stand to fend off Atlanta last week while the second-seeded Vikings scored an improbable last-second touchdown to stun New Orleans.

    Case Keenum (career-high 3,547 yards, 22 touchdowns and 98.3 passer rating) took a light-hearted approach upon addressing the media on Wednesday, three days after connecting with Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard scoring strike to complete the "Minneapolis Miracle" in a 29-24 triumph over the Saints. "I know this is what you guys all predicted: A (Nick) Foles vs. Keenum NFC Championship Game," he said, referencing the unlikely matchup pitting himself against a quarterback who was one year removed from seriously considering retirement. "It's been a crazy journey," said the 28-year-old Foles, who was acquired with Keenum by the then-St. Louis Rams on the same day (March 10, 2015) before ultimately returning to Philadelphia in a backup role. Foles has endured an uneven ride while filling in for the injured Carson Wentz, but completed 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards in a 15-10 win over the Falcons.

    TV:
    6:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Eagles opened as 3.5-point home underdogs, however bettors have shown them some love and as of Thursday night that number is down to +3. The total hit betting boards at 38 and in up slightly to 39.

    WEATHER REPORT:




    INJURY REPORT:


    Vikings - WR Adam Thielen (Probable, Back), WR Michael Floyd (Questionable, Illness), CB Mackensie Alexander (Questionable, Ribs), S Andrew Sendejo (Questionable, Concussion), DT Shamar Stephen (Questionable, Knee), LS Kevin McDermott (I-R, Shoulder), C Nick Easton (I-R, Ankle), TE Blake Bell (I-R, Shoulder), DT Sharrif Floyd (Out Indefinitely, Knee), RB Dalvin Cook (I-R, Knee), RB Bishop Sankey (I-R, Knee).

    Eagles - LB Dannell Ellerbe (Probable, Hamstring), CB Sidney Jones (Probable, Hamstring), QB Carson Wentz (I-R, Knee), K Caleb Sturgis (I-R, Quadricep), S Chris Maragos (I-R, Knee), LB Joe Walker (I-R, Undisclosed), LB Jordan Hicks (I-R, Achilles), T Jason Peters (I-R, Knee), RB Darren Sproles (I-R, Knee), RB Donnel Pumphrey (I-R, Hamstring), CB Randall Goforth (I-R, Knee), WR Dom Williams (I-R, Achilles), DT Aziz Shittu (I-R, Knee).

    ABOUT THE VIKINGS (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS, 8-9 O/U):
    Diggs overcame a slow start to finish with six catches for 137 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, giving him 28 receptions and four scores in the last five games. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen (team-leading 91 catches, 1,276 yards), who finished with six receptions versus New Orleans for the third time in five outings, returned to practice on Thursday after being plagued by a lower-back injury. Latavius Murray rushed for a touchdown last week to increase his total to 22 since 2016 (including playoff games) heading into a tilt with the NFL's top-ranked run defense.

    ABOUT THE EAGLES (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS, 8-9 O/U):
    Jay Ajayi stumbled out of the blocks with a fumble on his first carry last week before finishing with 54 yards rushing and 44 yards receiving on three catches. The 24-year-old clearly has become Philadelphia's top option out of the backfield following an in-season trade with Miami, but the terrain could be tough against Minnesota's top-ranked overall defense. Alshon Jeffery, who saw all four of his catches result in first downs last week, had a team-best nine touchdown receptions this season and has scored seven times in nine career games versus the Vikings.

    TRENDS:


    * Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
    * Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
    * Under is 4-1 in Vikings' last 5 playoff road games.
    * Under is 9-1-1 in Eagles' last 11 playoff home games.
    * Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the home underdog Philadelphia Eagles at a rate of 51 percent and the Over is getting 55 percent of the totals action.


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-21-2018 at 01:16 PM.

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    Elite Jaguars defense a bad omen for Patriots backers and other conference championship trends
    Ashton Grewal

    The New England Patriots are the overwhelming favorites (+105) to win the Super Bowl and not for a lack of reasons. They’re the defending champions and are gunning for their sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy since 2002.

    Pats QB Tom Brady is a two-time league MVP and the biggest name player in the sport while the other three quarterbacks left in the playoffs would have to wear their team jerseys to be recognized on the street.

    New England owns the league’s best total offense and only the Los Angeles Rams scored more points than Brady and Bill Belichick’s crew this season. But sharp bettors have been loading up the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC title game according numerous oddsmakers in Las Vegas and offshore. Scott Kaminsky, the sportsbook director at TheGreek.com, told Covers the same group of sharp bettors backing the Jaguars were on them last weekend against Pittsburgh too.

    Jacksonville ranks sixth in total offense and fifth in scoring, but with Blake Bortles under center few people identify the team as an offensive power. The Jaguars' defense is what got them this far which is the polar opposite of New England. The Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game for seventh straight year in spite of their defense which ranks 29th in the league in yards allowed.

    We looked back at the all the conference championship games to see if there was any correlation between weak defensive teams and ATS (against the spread) failures in the championship round. We eliminated any matchups with two poor defenses and only looked for games where one team had a top 5 defense and the other side was 24th or lower.

    Digging back as far as 1985 here’s what we found:



    • It doesn’t happen very often. There were only six cases since 1985 where one team with an elite defense matched up against another side with one of the least effective stopper units.
    • Defensive teams aren’t having as much luck in the AFC playoffs. In the last five years, only one top 5 team in total defense (2015-16 Denver Broncos) have made it to the final four.
    • The under is the most profitable play in this scenario. Games played under the closing total in the five of the six cases we identified.
    • The defensive teams went 4-2 against the spread in the six cases and 3-0 in the three games the defensive teams were getting points.

    Here are a few other conference championship trends we dug up:

    • Home teams 8-0 SU in last eight conference championship games, going 7-1 ATS.
    • Favorites are 16-4 SU in conference championship games over the last 10 years, 12-8 ATS.

    AFC

    • Home teams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 AFC title games.
    • Only two of the last 18 AFC champions won the conference title game but failed to cover the spread.
    • The favored team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight years.
    • There have been seven outright upsets in the last 18 AFC title games.

    NFC

    • The favorite is 4-1 in the last five NFC title games.
    • The over is 9-3 in the last 12 NFC title games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-21-2018 at 01:17 PM.

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    New England Patriots open as 5.5-point Super Bowl LII favorites over Philadelphia Eagles
    Patrick Everson

    For a while on Sunday, it looked like the Super Bowl might see fresh blood from both conferences. But at least there’s still one relative newcomer for the Feb. 4 showdown in Minneapolis. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line and early action, with insights from Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM Resorts in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook BetDSI.com.

    Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-5.5)

    Defending Super Bowl champion New England was on the ropes throughout much of Sunday’s AFC championship game, but Tom Brady and Co. got off the mat just in time for a return trip to the big game. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns – the last 14 points of the game – to squeeze out a 24-20 victory as a 7.5-point home favorite. Brady hit Danny Amendola for both scores, the second with just 2:48 remaining to account for the final margin.

    However, that comeback came at a cost for No. 1 seed New England, with stud tight end Rob Gronkowski sidelined during the game and now under concussion protocol.

    Top-seeded Philadelphia reached the Super Bowl in very different fashion, most notably without star QB Carson Wentz, who tore an ACL in a Week 14 road win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) beat Atlanta as a home underdog in the divisional round, then had the same role for Sunday’s NFC final, in which they boatraced Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point pup.

    “We’re gonna go Patriots -5.5,” Rood said of MGM’s opening number. “Basically, you like to have it on the hook, because you don’t want your biggest decision of the football year to be a push. Also, based off the performance of the Eagles and the uncertainty of Gronk, I think just shy of 6 is the place to be.”

    BetDSI opened a tick higher at Patriots -6 and dropped to -5 in short order Sunday night before ticking back up to -5.5. (For reviews of online sportsbooks visit OddsShark.com)

    “This feels a lot like those Patriots-Giants Super Bowls, where we saw the upset in each,” Cooley said. “I think we'll see a lot of underdog bettors during the next two weeks. We didn't want to undersell what the Patriots bring to the table, but we might have opened this number a bit high. Early action steamed in on Philadelphia, which moved the spread down to -5.

    “We did attract some chalk money at that point and bumped the number to -5.5.”

    Cooley said BetDSI also saw some early sharp money on the over, taking the total from 47.5 to 48.5, before it nosed back to 48. At MGM books, including Rood’s home base at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip, the total opened at 47.5 and was unchanged late Sunday night.

    On the moneyline, MGM opened the Patriots -220 and moved to -225, with the buyback on the Eagles going from +180 to +185.

  9. #9
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    Here are the updated 2018 NFL playoff betting stats following a 2-0 Championship Sunday for underdogs:

    Favorites: 1-9 ATS
    Home Teams: 3-7 ATS
    Home Favorites: 1-7 ATS
    Home Underdogs: 2-0 ATS

    Over/Under: 5-5
    Over/Under Outdoors: 3-5
    Over/Under Indoors: 2-0

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