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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/11

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/11

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, January 11

    Good Luck on day #11 of 2018!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    — LSU 75, Arkansas 54— Impressive road win for the Bayou Bengals.

    — Indiana State 69, Northern Iowa 67— UNI has lost seven in row after an 8-2 start.

    — OF Jay Bruce signed a 3-year, $39M deal to return to the Mets.

    — St John’s soph G Marcus Lovett (knee) is done for this season.

    — Clippers 125, Warriors 106— Lou Williams hung half a hundred on Golden State.

    — Northwestern 83, Minnesota 60— McIntosh had 16 assists, no turnovers for Wildcats.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) Further evidence that I’m an idiot; spent 90 minutes in the local DMV office today, waiting to get my license renewed. No big deal, lot of people in there— not sure how their system works, other than some 70-ish year-old lady held things up for several minutes because she had to have her license picture taken 5-6 times until it was just right.

    Anyway, they finally call my number and I go up to the counter, only it isn’t my license that needs renewal. It is my dad’s license that needs renewal— he passed away three years ago. Whoops.

    12) 2007 Jacksonville Jaguars are only visiting team that has beaten the Steelers twice in Pittsburgh in the same season. Roethlisberger had one of his worst games ever against the Jags back in October- he threw five INTs, two of which were run back for TD’s.

    11) Seattle Seahawks fired the OC and offensive line coach, and there are rumors the DC will be gone soon, too, so the Seahawks are basically starting over again with a new coaching staff and an aging roster. As long as they have Russell Wilson, they’re going to be a contender.

    10) Heard on TV Tuesday nite that Fresno State isn’t flying charters to road game as much now, which is a big deal in the Mountain West, which has schools in out-of-the-way places. Flying commercial flights to Fort Collins, Logan, Laramie makes travel a lot more cumbersome.

    9) Michigan State 76, Rutgers 72 OT— Spartans were a presumptive Final Four pick few days ago, then they got bamboozled by Ohio State and then this. Go figure.

    Rutgers gave coach Steve Pikiell a contract extension this week; he’s upgraded their team a lot so far, but it hasn’t shown up that much in the won-loss column. Yet.

    8) Villanova 89, Xavier 65— Xavier is 15-3, but two of their losses were by 16-24 points; they’re a streaky/erratic team. Villanova scored 87+ points in its last six games.

    7) Oakland (-16) 95, Youngstown State 82— Penguins outscored Oakland 8-0 over the last 1:38 for the backdoor cover.

    6) UMass 86, LaSalle 79 OT— Explorers were up 16 at the half, but Luwane Pipkins went for 44 and the Minutemen improved to 9-8. Tough loss for 7-10 LaSalle.

    5) George Mason 81, St Joe’s 79— Otis Livingston drained a 30-foot buzzer-beater for the win.

    4) Louisville 73, Florida State 69— Impressive road win for the Cardinals- it is their first win in four true road games this season. Seminoles led by 13 points at halftime.

    3) The power of television: In only four days, that book Michael Wolff wrote about the White House sold over a million copies. Guy was on every talk show in America over the weekend.

    2) Starlin Castro has requested a trade from the Marlins, who acquired him in the Giancarlo Stanton trade December 11. It is funny when people start jumping off a sinking ship, before they’re actually even on the ship.

    What is the over/under for the attendance at the Marlins’ home opener? Half-full?

    1) Best wishes to Texas Longhorns sophomore guard Andrew Jones, who was diagnosed with leukemia this week. Get well soon, young man.

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, January 11


    76ers-Celtics are playing in London. Celtics won nine of last ten series games, but Philly is 4-2 vs spread in last six. Five of last seven series games went over. Boston won its last six games (4-2 vs spread, under 5-1). Celtics are 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. 76ers won their last four games, are 5-1 vs spread in last six. Over is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Philly is 2-5 vs spread in its last seven tries as an underdog.

    Cavaliers won nine of last ten games with Toronto (7-2-1 vs spread); they’re 4-0-1 vs spread in last five visits to Canada. Five of last seven series games went over the total. Cavaliers lost five of last seven games; they’re 9-12 vs spread on road. Three of their last four games went over total. Toronto won five of its last six games; they’re 9-7 vs spread at home. Four of their last five games went over total.

    Clippers won six of their last eight games; they won in Oakland last nite, so trap game here in Sacramento. LA is 2-1 as road favorite- they’re 3-2 vs spread on road if they played night before. Kings lost five of their last six games; they’re 9-10 vs spread at home. Six of their last nine games went over total. Clippers won eight of last ten games with Sacramento; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Over is 6-4 in last ten series games.

    Spurs won eight of last nine games with Lakers, who are 4-3 vs spread in last seven. SA is 2-2 vs spread in last four series games played here. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Spurs split their last six games; they’re 6-8 vs spread as road favorites. Three of their last four games went over total. Lakers won last two games after a 9-game skid; they’re 6-10 as home underdogs. Over is 11-4 in their last 15 games.




    NBA

    Thursday, January 11


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    Trend Report
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    BOSTON @ PHILADELPHIA
    Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Boston is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
    Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

    CLEVELAND @ TORONTO
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Cleveland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
    Toronto is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games at home

    LA CLIPPERS @ SACRAMENTO
    LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Sacramento's last 11 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

    SAN ANTONIO @ LA LAKERS
    San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
    San Antonio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing LA Lakers
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Lakers's last 8 games when playing San Antonio
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-11-2018 at 12:33 PM.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, January 11


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    CLEVELAND (26 - 14) at TORONTO (28 - 11) - 1/11/2018, 8:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 10-6 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 12-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CLIPPERS (19 - 21) at SACRAMENTO (13 - 27) - 1/11/2018, 10:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SACRAMENTO is 5-5 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
    LA CLIPPERS is 8-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAN ANTONIO (28 - 14) at LA LAKERS (13 - 27) - 1/11/2018, 10:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA LAKERS is 4-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
    SAN ANTONIO is 7-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BOSTON (33 - 10) vs. PHILADELPHIA (19 - 19) - 1/11/2018, 3:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 70-49 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
    BOSTON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
    BOSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 5-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 9-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-11-2018 at 12:33 PM.

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    Cavaliers carry NBA's worst ATS record into Toronto for showdown vs. Raptors
    Ashton Grewal

    The Toronto Raptors are playing the best basketball in the franchise’s 22-year history and are on pace to set a new single-season wins record with 59. They’re second in the Eastern Conference at 28-11 and are a tidy 22-17 against the spread in their first 39 games.

    They own the third-best point differential (+7.7) and net rating (+7.4) in the league behind only the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets. The Raptors and the Warriors are the only two teams in the league inside the top five in both offensive rating and defensive rating.

    All these feel-good numbers get thrown out the window when one person’s name is mentioned: LeBron James. Don’t get in a knife fight with Crocodile Dundee; don’t enter a dance-off opposite Derek Hough and don’t expect to win in the East unless LBJ is on your team.

    James and the Cleveland Cavaliers come to the T.dot on Thursday for the early game of the TNT doubleheader knowing they own the Raptors. The Cavs played the Dinos in two of the last three years in the playoffs and made short work of them each time. Cleveland went 8-2 straight up and 7-2-1 against the spread vs. Toronto in those two playoff series, and it wasn't even really that close. DeMar DeRozan summed it up best after his team was swept out of the playoffs last spring.

    The memories of that four-game sweep might still be in the heads of the Raptors when they play the Cavs for the first time since, but they can take comfort knowing they play the Cavs much closer outside of the postseason. Cleveland has won six of the last 10 meetings but eight of those games were decided by single digits. Toronto is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 regular season matchups against the Cavs.

    The Raptors’ reputation around the league is based off their accomplishments in the regular season, and their rise to power in the Atlantic came at the same time James teamed up with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in Cleveland. Toronto has won 49, 56 and 51 games the last three years but disappointed in the postseason each time. The Raps are 10-23-1 against the spread in their last 24 playoff games and 112-90-1 ATS in their last 203 regular season contests.

    The Cavaliers in their second go-round with James have been the polar opposite. Since the King returned to Cleveland, the Cavs are 124-155-7 against the spread in the regular season and 33-25-1 ATS in the playoffs. And while they’ve never been a winning ATS bet, this season has been the hardest on the wallets of their backers. The Cavaliers own the worst ATS record in the league at 12-27-1 – which translates into a 30.8 percent win rate.

    The four-time defending Eastern Conference champions are coming off a 28-point loss – their largest defeat of the campaign – and carry with them into Toronto the second-worst defensive rating in the league.

    The Reptiles have their own warts going into battle against Cleveland. For all the winning they’ve done early on, it’s been mostly against soft competition thanks to the 25th toughest schedule in the season’s first half.

    Toronto’s starting point guard, Kyle Lowry, is questionable with a bruised tailbone and its starting power forward, Serge Ibaka, is serving a one-game suspension after throwing a punch at Miami Heat forward James Johnson on Tuesday.

    Oddsmakers are waiting on the status of Lowry before putting this game on the board, but bettors should expect the game to be close to a pick ‘em.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-11-2018 at 12:34 PM.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, January 11



    Cleveland @ Toronto

    Game 503-504
    January 11, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    126.622
    Toronto
    117.913
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cleveland
    by 8 1/2
    223
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cleveland
    by 2 1/2
    218 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (-2 1/2); Over

    LA Clippers @ Sacramento


    Game 505-506
    January 11, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Clippers
    114.756
    Sacramento
    116.286
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Sacramento
    by 1 1/2
    206
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Clippers
    by 2
    209
    Dunkel Pick:
    Sacramento
    (+2); Under

    San Antonio @ LA Lakers


    Game 503-504
    January 11, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Antonio
    119.204
    LA Lakers
    119.333
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Lakers
    Even
    204
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Antonio
    by 2 1/2
    209 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (+2 1/2); Under

    Boston @ Philadelphia


    Game 901-902
    January 11, 2018 @ 3:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston
    124.562
    Philadelphia
    119.013
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 5 1/2
    214
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 1 1/2
    205 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    (-1 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-11-2018 at 12:34 PM.

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    NBA

    Thursday, January 11


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NBA Game of the Day: Cavaliers at Raptors betting preview and odds
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+3.5, 218.5)

    The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off one of their worst performances just in time to face one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers will try to solve their defensive woes in time to stop DeMar DeRozan and company when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Thursday.

    Cleveland dropped six of its last nine games and was embarrassed 127-99 at the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday, and Isaiah Thomas simplified the team's issues. "We've just got to play harder," Thomas told ESPN.com. "We've got to play harder on both ends, we've got to push the pace offensively, we've got to pressure up defensively and take teams out of what they want to do. Teams are doing whatever they want to us at that end of the floor. I think if we do that then that will be half the battle. We'll fix things on offense, but defensively we've just got to play harder, be more physical, take away what teams want to do." The Raptors had a five-game overall winning streak and a 12-game home surge come to an end with a 90-89 loss to the Miami Heat on Tuesday. "We always focus on the last few possessions, but the stuff was building up, the lack of ball movement, spacing, cutting, playing with force, we didn't do it," Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters.

    TV:
    8 p.m. ET, TNT, Sportsnet One (Toronto)

    LINE HISTORY:
    This line was late being released due to some injury questions for Toronto, but once the line hit the board the Cavaliers opened as 1-point road favorites and the total opened at 220. Those numbers were quickly adjusted as the public hit the Cavs hard and forced books to move the Toronto line up to +3.5 and the total was dropped slightly to 218.5.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Cavaliers - PG D. Rose (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), SG I. Shumpert (Late Jan, Knee).

    Raptors - PG K. Lowry (Doubful, Tailbone), PF S. Ibaka (Out, Suspension).

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Cavaliers (-4.8) - Raptors (-10.3) + home court (-3) = Raptors -8.5

    MATCHUP CHART:



    ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (26-14 SU, 12-27-1 ATS, 19-20-1 O/U):
    Cleveland star LeBron James is playing at his usual MVP form this season but suffered through one of the worst games of his career on Monday, when he scored 10 points -- his lowest total since 2007 -- and registered a plus-minus of minus-39 -- the worst mark of his career. James, who insisted "I don't give a damn about no damn plus-minus," was coming off a performance at Orlando on Saturday in which he collected 33 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists and six steals. Power forward Kevin Love, who scored 27 points in that win over the Magic, managed just three points on 1-of-7 shooting at Minnesota.

    ABOUT THE RAPTORS (28-11 SU, 22-17 ATS, 20-19 O/U):
    Toronto was playing without point guard Kyle Lowry on Tuesday after he suffered a back injury late in Monday's win over Brooklyn, and the difference in the offense was noticeable. "I mean, the whole game is completely different without Kyle. It's everything. Everything," DeRozan told reporters. "You can kind of tell with our ball movement wasn't all the way there like it normally be when Kyle's out there. Like I said, he's a general on the floor. He sees things when they need to be called." Lowry, who averaged 20.5 points in four regular-season games against the Cavaliers last season, had x-rays come back negative and is considered day-to-day.

    TRENDS:


    * Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.
    * Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
    * Under is 7-0-1 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.
    * Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 home games.
    * Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-11-2018 at 12:36 PM.

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    Big night for road dogs in the NBA last night.
    Away teams went 8-3 against the spread and road underdogs went a very slick 7-3 ATS.


    Bettors are hammering Cleveland for their TNT meeting tonight at Toronto.
    Pointspread opened as Raptors +1 about an hour ago, now up to TOR +4 at some shops.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-11-2018 at 12:36 PM.

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