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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Divisional Round (Sat., Jan. 13 - Sun., Jan. 14)

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Divisional Round (Sat., Jan. 13 - Sun., Jan. 14)

    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Saturday, January 13 - Sunday, January 14

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Sharps have their say and move lines early in NFL Divisional Playoff betting action
    Patrick Everson

    "The public is going to find a way to bet the Falcons, but the minimal early action we’ve seen from the pros is on Philly."

    It’s on to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, where the big news in the first game next weekend isn’t who’s playing, but rather who’s not playing. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for all four matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

    Philadelphia secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye, but lost a huge key component to its success when quarterback Carson Wentz tore an ACL in a Week 14 win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) managed to win their next two games behind Nick Foles, but looked dreadful in the regular-season finale, a 6-0 home loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog.

    Defending NFC champion Atlanta served notice in the wild card round that it’s ready to defend that crown. The sixth-seeded Falcons (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS) went on the road and upset the third-seeded Los Angeles Rams 26-13 as a 6.5-point pup on Saturday.

    “If Carson Wentz is under center, we’re looking at the Eagles being at least 4-point favorites,” Cooley said. “The public is going to find a way to bet the Falcons, but the minimal early action we’ve seen from the pros is on Philly. The under got hit early from sharps, quickly dropping from 43.5 down to 41.”

    The total ticked back up to 41.5 later Sunday at Bookmaker.eu.

    Find more online sportsbooks and reviews at OddsShark.com

    Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)

    Defending Super Bowl champ New England is again the No. 1 seed, securing the one-week break while the wild card games played out. The Patriots (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) won and cashed in their last three games, including a 26-6 rout of the New York Jets as a hefty 17-point chalk in Week 17.

    Tennessee got into the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, then did some immediate damage in the wild card round. After trailing No. 4 seed Kansas City 21-3 at halftime, the Titans (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) rallied for a 22-21 victory as an 8.5-point road pup.

    “Seemingly every week, the Patriots see a huge spread, and seemingly every week, they cover it,” Cooley said. “It’ll be shocking if we get more than a dozen bets from the public on Tennessee. Certainly, we’ll get some ‘dog money from the sharps, but it won’t be enough to offset the New England backers.”

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

    Pittsburgh won 10 of its last 11 games, but that one loss made all the difference, as it was to New England in Week 15 and decided who would have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The second-seeded Steelers (13-3 SU, 7-9 ATS) finished the regular season with a 28-24 win over Cleveland as a 5-point home favorite, resting several key players in the process.

    Jacksonville, the No. 3 seed, finished the regular season with a pair of losses, but got it together just enough to advance through wild card weekend. The Jaguars (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) held off No. 6 seed Buffalo 10-3, falling just short as 8-point favorites.

    “Not much has changed since we set odds for that Week 5 matchup earlier this season,” Cooley said, alluding to the Steelers being 7.5-point road faves in a 30-9 loss to the Jags that week. “There’s no question where the public money will go, but I do expect this number to come down before it goes up. While the Jags looked anemic offensively this weekend, they can limit Pittsburgh with their defensive unit.”

    New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

    Minnesota nabbed the NFC’s No. 2 seed as the North Division champ, and with Philadelphia’s QB issues could end up at home the entire postseason, as the Super Bowl is in Minneapolis this year. The Vikings (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) won 11 of their last 12 SU (9-3 ATS), finishing with a 23-10 victory over Chicago laying 13.5 points at home.

    New Orleans won the NFC South and the No. 4 seed, then withstood a Carolina rally to advance from the wild card round. The Saints (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS), 6.5-point chalk at home Sunday, saw a 21-6 lead turn into just a 24-19 margin, but they held on for a 31-26 victory.

    “We’re definitely not expecting any Vikings love from the public bettors, but it will be interesting to see where the wiseguys go with this one,” Cooley said. “Honestly, and you know I’ve been lukewarm on the Saints all year, it feels like this spread should be -6 or higher. Tough to tell where this line is headed.”

    The initial answer was down, as the line dipped to Vikings -3.5 Sunday night.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-09-2018 at 04:18 PM.

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Divisional Round


    Saturday, December 13

    Atlanta @ Philadelphia

    Game 301-302
    January 13, 2018 @ 4:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    139.298
    Philadelphia
    140.779
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 1 1/2
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (+3); Under

    Tennessee @ New England


    Game 303-304
    January 13, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    134.746
    New England
    143.319
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 8 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 14
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (+14); Under


    Sunday, January 14

    Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh


    Game 305-306
    January 14, 2018 @ 1:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    131.289
    Pittsburgh
    144.330
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 13
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 7
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-7); Over

    New Orleans @ Minnesota


    Game 307-308
    January 14, 2018 @ 4:40 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    137.248
    Minnesota
    142.785
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 5 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 3 1/2
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-3 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-09-2018 at 04:19 PM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Divisional Round


    Saturday, December 13

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    ATLANTA (11 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 3) - 1/13/2018, 4:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TENNESSEE (10 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 3) - 1/13/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, December 14

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    JACKSONVILLE (11 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (13 - 3) - 1/14/2018, 1:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 105-76 ATS (+21.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ORLEANS (12 - 5) at MINNESOTA (13 - 3) - 1/14/2018, 4:40 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
    MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games this season.
    MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
    MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-09-2018 at 04:20 PM.

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    NFL

    Divisional Round


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, December 13

    ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
    Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

    TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND
    Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee


    Sunday, December 14

    JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH
    Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

    NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    New Orleans is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Minnesota is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-09-2018 at 04:20 PM.

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Divisional Round


    Keep in mind all four home teams had last week off:

    Falcons (11-6) @ Eagles (13-3)— This is first time #1 seed is underdog in this round; backup QB Foles was 23-33/195 in his only playoff start, 26-24 home loss to Saints in 2013- he is 22-18 as an NFL starter, 2-1 this year. Philly went 3-2 in last five games after a 10-1 start. Atlanta won seven of last nine games- they were held to 9-13 points in the losses. Falcons are 6-3 on road, 2-4 as road favorites. Home side won eight of last ten series games; Atlanta lost 7 of last 8 trips to Philly, losing 24-15 here LY. Under is 12-2 in Atlanta’s last 14 games, 5-2 in last seven Eagles games. Last 11 years, NFC’s #1 seed is 3-8 vs spread in this round. Matt Ryan is from Philly; it is a homecoming for him. Eagles are in playoffs for first time since ’13; their last win was in ’08.

    Titans (10-7) @ Patriots (13-3)— Since 2010, teams that won road game Wild Card weekend are 8-3-1 vs spread in this round. Since ’01, when Patriots play at home in this round of playoffs, they’re 5-4-2 vs spread. NE won/covered nine of last 10 games overall; they’re 17-6-3 vs spread in last 26 home games. Titans lost last six games with New England, last four of which were all by 17+ points. Tennessee won last week after trailing 21-3 at half, first team ever to win playoff game after trailing by 18+ at the half; they’re in playoffs for first time since ’08. Tennessee is 4-5 SU on road, 1-3 vs spread as road underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. as have four of last five Patriot games.

    Jaguars (11-6) @ Steelers (13-3)— Jaguars (+9) won 30-9 here in Week 5, one of Big Ben’s worst games ever- he threw five picks, two of which were run back for TD’s. Roethlisberger is 5-1 in this round of playoffs- this is first time since ’10 Steelers had bye into this round. ’07 Jags are only NFL team to beat Steelers in Pittsburgh twice in same season. Steelers won 10 of last 11 games, are 3-4 as home favorites- Pitt’s star WR Brown is back practicing; they’re still without star LB Shazier. Over is 4-2-1 in Steelers’ last seven games; three of last four Jax games went over total. Jags lost last three road games, by 3-11-5 points; they’re 2-1 as road underdogs. When a 2-seed plays a 3-seed in this round, the 2-seed is 26-8 SU- the bye really does help.

    Saints (12-5) @ Vikings (13-3)— Minnesota wins this week and next, they become first team to play Super Bowl in their home park. Vikings won 11 of last 12 games, covering 10 of last 11; they are 5-1 vs spread as home favorites this year. Saints (+3.5) lost 29-19 here in Week 1, Vikings outgained them 470-344 in game with no turnovers; it was Vikes’ first win in last five series games. Saints lost last three road games, by 6-3-7 points; their last road win was in Week 10 at Buffalo. NO is 1-3 as road underdogs this season. Four of last five Minnesota games stayed under total; over is 6-3 in Saints’ last nine games. Vikings are in playoffs for first time in three years; their last playoff win was in ’09. Since ’09, teams that won Wild Card game at home are 7-10 vs spread on road, in this round.

    Falcons (-3, 41.5) @ Eagles
    Titans @ Patriots (-13, 47.5)
    Jaguars @ Steelers (-7.5, 41)
    Saints @ Vikings (-4.5, 46)
    Last edited by Udog; 01-12-2018 at 10:52 AM.

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    NFL Divisional Round biggest betting mismatches
    Monty Andrews

    In two games since taking over the lead role from injured DeMarco Murray, Titans RB Derrick Henry has racked up 308 rushing and receiving yards and a pair of scores on a whopping 54 touches.

    Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 41.5)

    Falcons' turnover troubles vs. Eagles' ball-hawking defense

    The Atlanta Falcons are two wins away from a Super Bowl return - and the quest for a second consecutive appearance in the NFL title game continues Saturday against a host Philadelphia Eagles team playing without its biggest weapon. Quarterback Carson Wentz is out for the season with a knee injury, leaving the fate of the Eagles’ season in the hands of backup Nick Foles. But it isn't all doom and gloom for Philadelphia, which has a significant advantage in the turnover department.

    Atlanta did a lot of things right this season, and carried them over into last weekend's 26-13 triumph over the Los Angeles Rams in its wild-card encounter. But forcing turnovers has been an area of weakness for the Falcons, who were one of only four NFL teams to record single-digit fumble recoveries (eight) and interceptions (eight). Atlanta did well to take care of the ball during the regular season - losing just 18 turnovers for a minus-2 differential - but will need to be better if it hopes to get back to the Super Bowl.

    Perhaps the Falcons will learn a thing or two from the Eagles, who received plenty of attention for their terrific offense but were also a force on the defensive end of the football, ranking fourth in the league in total turnovers forced with 31 (19 interceptions, 12 recovered fumbles). They also ranked fourth in the NFL in turnover differential at plus-11 - and in a game that's expected to be a close one, winning the turnover battle could be enough for the Eagles to end Atlanta's shot at an NFC title repeat.

    Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5, 47)

    Dynamic Derrick Henry vs. Patriots' putrid run defense

    Between a spread of nearly two touchdowns and news of internal strife involving owner, head coach and franchise player, the New England Patriots might have to work a little harder to gain bettors' confidence ahead of this Saturday's divisional round encounter with the Tennessee Titans. And that isn't all the Patriots need to be concerned about, as they look to contain a Titans running game that could make this one a little too close for comfort despite the lofty spread.

    People are still talking about Marcus Mariota's three-touchdown performance in last week's stunning 22-21 comeback victory over Kansas City, but it wouldn't have been possible without Henry, who carved through the Chiefs' defense for 156 rushing yards and a touchdown in the win.

    In two games since taking over the lead role from injured DeMarco Murray, Henry has racked up 308 rushing and receiving yards and a pair of scores on a whopping 54 touches.

    It's easy to ignore how poor the Patriots' run defense was, considering how well Tom Brady and Co. performed on offense. But bettors can't ignore the fact that New England surrendered a stunning 4.7 yards-per-carry average in the regular season; only the Los Angeles Chargers had a higher YPC mark against.

    Granted, teams only ran the ball 38.2 percent of the time against the Pats, but if the Titans keep things close enough for Henry to remain a factor, the Titan's unlikely Super Bowl run might continue.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 40.5)

    Jaguars' red-zone prowess vs. Steelers' downfield struggles

    There was nothing pretty about Jacksonville's first postseason win in more than a decade, but the Jaguars will gladly accept last weekend's 10-3 wild-card triumph over the visiting Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars' trademark defense won the day, limiting Buffalo to 263 total yards while forcing a pair of turnovers. Jacksonville is a healthy underdog for this weekend's encounter at Heinz Field - but if red-zone play is any indication, the Jaguars should be able to keep pace with the host Steelers.

    Most people suspected the Jaguars would boast an impressive defense - and those people certainly weren't disappointed. But getting this far requires a more than passable offense - and Jacksonville overcame some early-season inconsistency to boast the league's second-best red-zone touchdown rate at 64.7 percent. Couple that with the Jaguars limiting opponents to a 37.9-percent success rate inside their 20-yard line - second-best in the league - and no team dominates the red zone like Jacksonville.

    The Steelers have home-field advantage and a pair of dangerous offensive weapons in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown - but none of that will matter if Pittsburgh can't make inroads in either red zone. The Steelers converted just 50.8 percent of their visits to the opponents' 20-yard line into six points - the 22nd-best rate in the league - and were even worse at defending the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 61.5 percent of opponent opportunities (28th). Big Ben has a big job ahead of him.

    New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 45)

    Saints' third-down woes vs. Vikings' very good 3D showing

    Quarterback playoff experience - or a lack thereof - is the focal point of Sunday's NFC divisional encounter between Drew Brees' New Orleans Saints and Case Keenum's Minnesota Vikings.

    Brees, a former Super Bowl champion, will be making the 12th career post-season appearance in his 17th NFL season; Keenum will be making his first-ever playoff start. But third-down play is a major equalizer here, with the host Vikings owning a significant edge on both sides of the ball.

    New Orleans rode a sensational running game to the fourth-highest scoring average in the league (28 ppg) - but when Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara weren't getting enough yardage on first and second down, the Saints struggled to score or extend drives.

    New Orleans converted just 37.1 percent of its third-down opportunities, good for 20th overall. Things were even worse on the defensive end, with the Saints allowing teams to make good on 41.5 percent of third-down chances (27th overall).

    That doesn't bode well at all for the visitors, as they face a Vikings unit that dominated third-down scenarios for nearly the entire season. It won't surprise anyone that Minnesota held foes to an absurd 25.2-percent success rate on third downs during the regular season - the best mark in the NFL.

    But despite playing without their No. 1 quarterback and running back to start the season, the Vikings made good on better than 43.5 percent of third-down situations - and repeating the feat Sunday will likely mean a win.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-09-2018 at 04:21 PM.

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    NFL

    Saturday, December 13


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Divisional Playoff betting preview and odds: Falcons at Eagles
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 41)

    Although the Philadelphia Eagles boasted the NFL's top mark throughout much of the season and tied a franchise record with 13 wins, they find themselves as the first team in league history to enter its opening playoff game as an underdog. The Eagles aim to silence the critics on Saturday when they host the sixth-seeded Atlanta Falcons in an NFC divisional round contest at Lincoln Financial Field.

    "What bothered me was we were 12-2 (at the time of Carson Wentz's injury) and treated like we were the (winless) Browns," Philadelphia Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson said. "It happens, but I think although we don't like it, it's a good motivator to have people not write good things." Philly's newspapers haven't been kind since potential NFL MVP candidate Wentz was lost for the season with an ACL injury, as the team hasn't given its fickle fans much to cheer with 16 points in its last nine quarters. Last season's NFL MVP Matt Ryan, who hails from Exton, Pa., recorded his fifth consecutive playoff game with at least a 100.0 passer rating in Atlanta's 26-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. "We're not here just to get here. We want to make noise while we're here," Ryan told reporters.

    TV:
    4:35 p.m. ET, NBC.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Falcons opened as 3-point road favorites and that number came down briefly to 2.5 before returning to the opening figure. The total hit betting boards at 44.5 and has been bet all of the way down to 41.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "The Eagles find themselves in a rare home dog role knowing that No. 1 NFC seeds are 22-3 SU in Divisional round games sic the 1990 season. On the flip side, the Falcons have won 10 of their last 12 games adjacent NFC East opponents but finds themselves favored the playoff road for the first time in franchise history. The bottom line is this game will likely come down to how Philadelphia backup QB Nick Foles fares against an Atlanta pass defense that surrendered more than 300 passing yards on only occasion this season." - Marc Lawrence.

    WEATHER REPORT:




    INJURY REPORT:


    Falcons - WR Mohamed Sanu (Probable, Knee), TE Levine Toilolo (Probable, Knee), WR Julio Jones (Probable, Ankle), QB Matt Ryan (Probable, Personal), LB LaRoy Reynolds (Questionable, Knee), RB Devonta Freeman (Questionable, Knee), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), LB Jordan Tripp (I-R, Concussion), G Andy Levitre (I-R, Tricep), S Quincy Mauger (I-R, Knee), DE Jack Crawford (I-R, Bicep).

    Eagles - T Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Probable, Knee), DE Brandon Graham (Probable, Ankle), CB Jalen Mills (Probable, Ankle), RB Jay Ajayi (Probable, Knee), CB Sidney Jones (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Dannell Ellerbe (Questionable, Hamstring), QB Carson Wentz (I-R, Knee), K Caleb Sturgis (I-R, Quadricep), S Chris Maragos (I-R, Knee), LB Joe Walker (I-R, Undisclosed), LB Jordan Hicks (I-R, Achilles), T Jason Peters (I-R, Knee), RB Darren Sproles (I-R, Knee), RB Donnel Pumphrey (I-R, Hamstring), CB Randall Goforth (I-R, Knee), WR Dom Williams (I-R, Achilles), DT Aziz Shittu (I-R, Knee).

    ABOUT THE FALCONS (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS, 5-12 O/U):
    Julio Jones, who reeled in nine receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown last week against the Rams, traditionally has flustered Philadelphia in his career. The Pro Bowl wideout had 10 catches for 135 yards in the teams' last meeting in 2016 and has 428 receiving yards in four contests with the Eagles. The potent running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 1,493 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season, but the duo will test the mettle of Philadelphia's top-ranked rushing defense (79.2). Speaking of defense, Atlanta has stepped up its game by allowing just 16.3 points per contest over the last six.

    ABOUT THE EAGLES (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U):
    Nick Foles answered a sterling four-touchdown performance versus the New York Giants in Week 15 by completing 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions over his last two appearances. "My message to Nick is, 'Listen, you have a great opportunity. Just go be Nick. Go play. Let's go executive the offense,'" coach Doug Pederson said. Zach Ertz is a key part of that offense after earning his first Pro Bowl selection by finishing third among all NFL tight ends with 74 receptions for 824 yards. Ertz and wideout Nelson Agholor each had eight touchdown receptions, one shy of team leader Alshon Jeffery.

    TRENDS:


    * Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
    * Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Divisional Playoffs games.
    * Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games overall.
    * Under is 7-0-1 in Eagles last 8 playoff home games.
    * Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
    The public is siding with the road favorite Atlanta Falcons at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is getting 63 percent of the totals action.


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-13-2018 at 12:50 PM.

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    NFL

    Saturday, December 13


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Divisional Playoff betting preview and odds: Titans at Patriots
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5, 48)

    Amid the background of a reported rift between the owner, coach and star quarterback, the reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots host the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night. The Patriots have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in two of the past three seasons and look to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since they accomplished it in 2003-04.

    New England, the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, dealt with a rare off-the-field distraction when ESPN detailed a power struggle between coach Bill Belichick, quarterback Tom Brady and owner Robert Kraft -- a report the team disputed. "The reputation that Coach tries to get us to have is just ignore the noise -- ignore the noise from the outside and I feel like that's what myself and a lot of other players have been doing," Patriots star tight end Rob Gronkowski said. While Brady has 25 playoff wins under his belt, the upstart Titans will arrive in Foxborough fresh off their first postseason win since 2003 -- stunning the Kansas City Chiefs 22-21 after trailing by 18 points at halftime. Tennessee, which lost three straight before beating Jacksonville in Week 17 to clinch a playoff slot, has not won at New England since 2003, when the franchise was still located in Houston.

    TV:
    8:15 p.m. ET, CBS.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point home favorites and that number has yet to move. The total hit betting boards at 47 and has been bet up slightly to 48.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "The Titans journey to Foxborough following last week’s stunning comeback win at Kansas City hoping they can reverse an ugly playoff trend that has found the last four teams to knock off the Chiefs in the postseason only to 0-4 SUATS the following games. The good news is Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota is 3-2 Su and 4-1 ATS adjacent .666 or greater foes in games i which the Titans sports a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, New England is 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS against AFC South opponents since 2010, but QB Tom Brady is only 2-3 ATS in his NFL career as double-digit chalk in the playoffs." - Marc Lawrence.

    WEATHER REPORT:




    INJURY REPORT:


    Titans - G Quinton Spain (Probable, Back), CB Logan Ryan (Probable, Ankle), RB DeMarco Murray (Out, Knee), LB Aaron Wallace (I-R, Back), CB LeShaun Sims (I-R, Hamstring), DL DaQuan Jones (I-R, Bicep), QB Alex Tanney (I-R, Foot), WR Tajae' Sharpe (I-R, Foot), LB Victor Ochi (I-R, Knee).

    Patriots - DL Alan Branch (Probable, Knee), WR Chris Hogan (Probable, Shoulder), RB James White (Probable, Ankle), RB Rex Burkhead (Probable, Knee), LB Marquis Flowers (Questionable, Illness), LB Kyle Van Noy (Questionable, Calf), DL Eric Lee (Questionable, Ankle), RB Mike Gillislee (Doubful, Knee), DT Vincent Valentine (Questionable, Knee), WR Malcolm Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), OL Marcus Cannon (I-R, Ankle), OL Tony Garcia (I-R, Illness), OL Andrew Jelks (I-R, Knee), DB Nate Ebner (I-R, Knee), TE Martellus Bennett (I-R, Shoulder), LB Dont'a Hightower (I-R, Pectoral), LB Shea McClellin (I-R, Concussion), LB Harvey Langi (I-R, Back), DL Keionta Davis (I-R, Neck), CB Cyrus Jones (I-R, Knee), WR Julian Edelman (I-R, Knee), DE Derek Rivers (I-R, Knee).

    ABOUT THE TITANS (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS, 9-8 O/U):
    Quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for more interceptions (15) than scoring passes (13) this season, but he guided Tennessee to three long touchdown drives in the second half, including a TD pass to himself at Kansas City. Mariota also rushed eight times for 46 yards but the Titans' best hopes are to feed backup running back Derrick Henry, who punished the Chiefs for 156 yards and a score on 23 carries. Tight end Delanie Walker had a team-high 74 catches while Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker added 53 and 54, respectively. Tennessee is 25th against the pass (239.3 yards) but tied for fifth in the league with 43 sacks.

    ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS, 7-9 O/U):
    Brady put up his usual flashy numbers, leading the league with 4,577 yards and tossing 32 touchdowns versus eight interceptions, but he had just six scoring passes and five picks over the past five games. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 92 yards in four of his past six games and scored five times in the past three, and should get some help with the expected returns of Rex Burkhead and James White from injury. Gronkowski and speedster Brandin Cooks each went over 1,000 yards and combined for 15 touchdowns for New England's top-ranking offense (394.2 yards). The Patriots limited 10 of their last 12 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

    TRENDS:


    * Titans are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
    * Under is 9-2-1 in Titans last 12 Saturday games.
    * Over is 7-0-1 in Patriots last 8 Divisional Playoffs games.
    * Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the home favorite New England Patriots at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is getting 55 percent of the totals action.


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-13-2018 at 12:51 PM.

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    NFL

    Sunday, December 14


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Divisional Playoff betting preview and odds: Jaguars at Steelers
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 41)

    Ben Roethlisberger gets a chance to atone for one of the worst games of his career when he guides the Pittsburgh Steelers into Sunday's AFC divisonal round matchup against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. Roethlisberger has guided No. 2 seed Pittsburgh to 10 wins in 11 games since a wretched performance in a 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville in Week 5.

    Roethlisberger questioned whether he still had "it" after throwing a career-worst five interceptions -- two of which were returned for touchdowns -- against Jacksonville in October. "We've evolved since then. They have evolved a lot since then," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "I am sure that they are as different as we are since the last time we've seen them." Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh rebounded to win eight in a row following the loss to the third-seeded Jaguars, who set up the rematch with a 10-3 victory over Buffalo in the wild-card round. While Jalen Ramsey picked off Roethlisberger in the first meeting and clinched last week's win with an interception, fellow cornerback A.J. Bouye had a ready response -- "be careful what you ask for" -- upon hearing that the quarterback wants another crack at the Jaguars.

    TV:
    1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Steelers opened as 8-point home chalk and money coming in on the Jaguars have brought that number down to a converted touchdown at most books. The total hit the betting boards at 41 and was briefly bet down to 40.5 before returning to the opening number.

    WHAT BOOKS SAY:
    "This is the least exciting game from an action standpoint. We've got a few sharps on each side of the spread, and the squares are almost split as well, although there is slightly more public money on Pittsburgh. Currently, the money handle favors the Steelers 60-40." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    WEATHER REPORT:



    INJURY REPORT:


    Jaguars - RB T.J. Yeldon (Questionable, Illness), LB Paul Posluszny (Questionable, Hip), OL Chris Reed (Questionable, Knee), WR Jaelen Strong (I-R, Knee), WR Arrelious Benn (I-R, Knee), LS Matt Overton (I-R, Shoulder).

    Steelers - Antonio Brown (Probable, Calf), CB Coty Sensabaugh (Questionable, Shoulder), RB James Conner (I-R, Knee), LB Ryan Shazier (I-R, Spine)

    ABOUT THE JAGUARS (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS, 8-9 O/U):
    The biggest question mark on offense for Jacksonville is the erratic play of fourth-year quarterback Blake Bortles, who was intercepted five times in the final two regular-season games and threw for only 87 yards in last weekend's win over Buffalo. Bortles did rush for 88 yards last week but the Jaguars likely will try to play keep-away by feeding rookie running back Leonard Fournette, who rumbled for a season-high 181 yards and a 90-yard touchdown in the first meeting against Pittsburgh. Calais Campbell leads a pass rush that amassed 55 sacks -- second in the league to Pittsburgh -- while the Jaguars permitted an NFL-low 169.9 yards per game and ranked No. 2 overall with an average of 16.8 points surrendered. Ramsey and Bouye combined for 10 of the team's 21 interceptions, also No. 2 in the league.

    ABOUT THE STEELERS (13-3 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-10 O/U):
    Roethlisberger finished the season with multiple touchdown passes in his last seven games, connecting on 18 TDs versus five interceptions in that span. Antonio Brown, sidelined since injuring a calf in Week 15 against the Patriots, practice fully Wednesday -- the same day he was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Year after hauling in 101 passes for a league-high 1,533 yards, including 10 for 157 versus the Jaguars. Rookie wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster came on strong over the second half of the season while Le'Veon Bell provides a lethal dual threat out of the backfield, finishing third in the league in rushing (1,291) yards to go with a career-best 85 catches. The Steelers led the league with 56 sacks, but defensive end Stephon Tuitt and cornerback Artie Burns each were hurt in Wednesday's practice.

    TRENDS:


    * Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

    * Under is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 games following a ATS loss.

    * Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

    * Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

    * Underdog is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the home favorite Pittsburgh Steelers at a rate of 52 percent and the Under is getting 58 percent of the totals action.


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-14-2018 at 12:42 PM.

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    NFL

    Sunday, December 14


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Divisional Playoff betting preview and odds: Saints at Vikings
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 46.5)

    The Minnesota Vikings defeated the visiting New Orleans Saints in their season opener and have won five straight at U.S. Bank Stadium heading into the teams' NFC divisional round contest on Sunday. The Vikings are banking their home success pays dividends as they continue their pursuit of becoming the first team to host a Super Bowl when they face off against Drew Brees and the Saints.

    Case Keenum watched as Sam Bradford earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns in the 29-19 win over the Saints on Sept. 11 before the journeyman quarterback was ushered into action. Keenum became a dark-horse NFL MVP candidate after recording career highs in completions (325), attempts (481), yards (3,547), touchdowns (22) and passer rating (98.3) while posting an 11-3 mark as a starter. "I always root for guys like that, kind of the undersized guy coming out that nobody wants to give any credit and just always plays with a chip on his shoulder," said Brees, who is a sentimental darling in his own right as he approaches his 39th birthday. Brees penned one of his best performance of the season last weekend by throwing for 376 yards and two touchdowns as the Saints defeated the Carolina Panthers for the third time this season with a 31-26 win in the wild-card game.

    TV:
    4:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

    LINE HISTORY:
    Oddsmakers opened the Vikings as 3.5-point faves and that wasn't enough for bettors as money came in on the home team pushing that line as high as 5, where it currently sits. The total hit the board at 44.5 and has been bet up two full points to 46.5.

    WHAT BOOKS SAY:
    "No surprise that the public is siding with the Saints to the tune of 70 percent. Over the last 48 hours the sharps have jumped all over Minnesota. The over in this game is our biggest total liability thus far. Sharps and squares love the over, and it’s the most wagered option by the wiseguys in the Divisional Playoffs thus far." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    Dome

    INJURY REPORT:


    Saints - DT Tony McDaniel (Questionable, Leg), OT Andrus Peat (Out Indefinitely, Shin), FB John Kuhn (Questionable, Bicep), TE Garrett Griffin (I-R, Foot), DE Hau'oli Kikaha (I-R, Ankle), DT John Hughes (I-R, Biceps), S Kenny Vaccaro (I-R, Wrist), LB A.J. Klein (I-R, Groin), NT David Parry (I-R, Ankle), DL Mitchell Loewen (I-R, Ankle), TE Coby Fleener (I-R, Concussion).

    Vikings - C Pat Elflein (Probable, Shoulder), TE Kyle Rudolph (Probable, Ankle), DB Tramaine Brock (Questionable, Foot), DT Shamar Stephen (Questionable, Ankle), FB C.J. Ham (Questionable, Neck), QB Sam Bradford (Doubtful, Knee), LS Kevin McDermott (I-R, Shoulder), C Nick Easton (I-R, Ankle), TE Blake Bell (I-R, Shoulder).

    ABOUT THE SAINTS (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS, 10-7 O/U):
    Like Minnesota, New Orleans also changed quite a bit after the season opener as former Vikings great Adrian Peterson was jettisoned to Arizona in favor of the two-pronged attack of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara. The potent pair became the first running back duo in league history to gain more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and helped New Orleans lead the NFL with 4.7 yards per carry and 23 rushing touchdowns. Kamara finished second among running backs in catches with 81 during the regular season, but had just one against the Panthers last weekend. Michael Thomas more than picked up the slack, however, reeling in eight of nine targets for 131 yards in his playoff debut.

    ABOUT THE VIKINGS (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS, 7-9 O/U):
    Swapping quarterbacks isn't Minnesota's only notable change from the season opener as Latavius Murray's workload was nondescript before impressive rookie Dalvin Cook saw his season end due to an ACL injury. Murray recorded eight touchdowns in his last 10 games of the season while fellow running back Jerick McKinnon reeled in 43 of his 51 receptions over the last 12. Wideout Stefon Diggs found the end zone on two occasions in the first meeting with the Saints and scored a touchdown in each of the last three games of the season.

    TRENDS:


    * Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

    * Vikings are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

    * Over is 13-3 in Saints last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

    * Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota.

    * Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road dog Saints at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is getting 57 percent of the totals action.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-14-2018 at 12:43 PM.

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    Steelers' WR Antonio Brown (calf/illness) is officially active today vs Jaguars

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    NFL Playoff Betting Stats (through 6 games):

    Favorites: 1-5 ATS
    Home Teams: 2-4 ATS
    Home Favorites: 1-4 ATS
    Home Underdogs: 1-0 ATS

    Over/Under: 2-4
    Over/Under Outdoors: 1-4
    Over/Under Indoors: 1-0
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-14-2018 at 12:47 PM.

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    NFL Conference Championship opening line report: Eagles playoff home dogs once again
    Patrick Everson

    “Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag.”

    After an exhilarating end to the NFL divisional playoff round, it’s on to the conference championship games, with Super Bowl berths on the line. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early movement, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-8)

    Jacksonville is the surprise guest of the four still around for this playoff party, finally getting a boost from its often inept offense. The third-seeded Jaguars (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS) forced two turnovers that led to 14 points Sunday at No. 2 Pittsburgh, but also piled up 31 more points of their own volition on the way to a 45-42 shootout victory as a 7-point underdog.

    Meanwhile, there was nothing unusual or unexpected about top-seeded New England earning yet another trip to the AFC title game. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS) spotted Tennessee a 7-0 lead Saturday, then steamrolled to a 35-14 victory as a hefty 13.5-point home favorite.

    “We didn’t even want to tempt the bettors with anything closer to a touchdown, and it’s a good thing, because as expected, all of the early money is on New England,” Cooley said. “This spread is probably going to creep north as the week goes on, but I’d be shocked if it went off at double digits. I’m certainly not expecting Jacksonville to win with Blake Bortles at quarterback, but that defense could keep things interesting.”

    After opening the Pats -8, Bookmaker.eu was already up to 9 by late Sunday night. (Find more online sportsbook reviews at OddsShark.com)

    Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

    By way of one of the most amazing plays in NFL postseason history, Minnesota (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) could still become the first team to play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. The second-seeded Vikings appeared dead in the water Sunday, trailing 24-23 at home after No. 4 New Orleans hit a field goal with just 25 seconds remaining.

    The Vikings faced third-and-10 on their own 39 with 10 seconds left and no timeouts when quarterback Case Keenum hit wideout Stefon Diggs 30 yards downfield near the sideline. Inexplicably, Saints safety Marcus Williams completely whiffed on what would have been a game-ending tackle if made inbounds, and Diggs raced to the end zone to give the Vikes a 29-24 victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

    So Minnesota gets an NFC championship date with No. 1 seed Philadelphia, a team that wasn’t expected to survive without QB Carson Wentz, but remains alive and of course with home-field advantage. The Eagles (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) went off as 2.5-point underdogs to defending NFC champ and No. 6 seed Atlanta on Saturday, but scrapped their way to a 15-10 victory.

    “Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag,” Cooley said. “We saw a lot of moneyline money on that side against Atlanta, and will likely get the same action here. Minnesota was fortunate to get a win in the divisional round, but it was by far the better team.

    “Two fantastic defenses on display,” Cooley said of the upcoming NFC title tilt, “which should make for an exciting game for the football purists.”

    Minnesota drew the early action Sunday night at Bookmaker.eu, bumping the line up to 3.5.

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