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Thread: Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/3

  1. #1
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    Default Wednesday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 1/3

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, January 3

    Good Luck on day #3 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    — Notre Dame basketball star Bonzie Colson will miss eight weeks after breaking his left foot in practice this week— he could be back for the ACC tourney/NCAA’s.

    — Early line on the college football national title game: Alabama -4.5 over Georgia

    — Marvin Lewis signed a 2-year contract extension to keep coaching the Bengals.

    — Carson Palmer retired Tuesday; he had a 92-87-1 record as an NFL starter, with 46,247 career passing yards.

    — Red Sox hit the fewest home runs in the American League LY; do you think JD Martinez’ agent is aware of this stat? (yes, he is)

    — With the Bills making the playoffs, Seattle Mariners now own the longest playoff drought in North America— they last the playoffs in 2001.


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) Chuck Pagano lost his job Sunday, after six years of coaching the Colts. Pagano had leukemia back in 2012, but has beaten the disease and is healthy again, thankfully.

    We watch NFL games every week and coaches get hired/fired and we really don’t know much about them, just what we see on Sundays/Mondays. But the coaches who get fired have families and lives and they’re people like us, just a lot wealthier.

    Monday night, I saw a video of Pagano FaceTime-ing with a 21-year old leukemia patient who he did not know, just a kid who was fighting for his life, but he and coach Pagano talked for a minute and 55 seconds, about leukemia and medications and what food they could eat during their treatment. This was 2-3 years ago— the young man and coach Pagano have a mutual friend, which is why the call was made. The young man is healthy now, which is great news.

    It is impossible to watch those 115 seconds without thinking that Chuck Pagano is a great freakin’ person, to help a kid he didn’t even know. He lost his job this week, but he’ll find another one, and even though he’ll never be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, he’s a Hall of Fame person, and that is way more important.

    12) U of Arizona fired football coach Rich Rodriguez Tuesday night, even after an investigation over sexual harassment was termed unfounded (Rodriguez voluntarily took a polygraph test and passed it). Rodriguez’ former administrative aide threatened to sue the school for $7.5M, but all that has gone away, but so has Rodriguez’ job.

    11) In one episode of CSI, a gambler loses $53,000 on one hand on blackjack when the dealer pulls a 10-card blackjack; they said on the show that the record for most cards in a blackjack is 11 cards— imagine losing a hand that way? No bueno.

    10) Titans-Chiefs playoff game is on ESPN Saturday, with Jon Gruden as color commentator, the same Jon Gruden who likely will be coach of the Oakland Raiders at this time next week. Raiders/Chiefs is obviously one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries.

    Now Gruden and Andy Reid are friends, from their days together as assistants in Green Bay, but that production meeting they’ll have Thursday or Friday will almost have to be odd— how much information you giving to a guy who will be your arch-rival starting next week?

    9) Jon Gruden is 95-81 in 11 years as an NFL head coach, making playoffs five times. He won Super Bowl XXXVII with Tampa Bay, then missed playoffs in four of his last six seasons.

    In other words, he’s not exactly Vince Lombardi.

    8) Indianapolis Colts’ GM Chris Ballard was once a WR at Wisconsin; he didn’t play, but he has learned the sport well and is now an NFL GM. The Badgers’ QB while Ballard was at Wisconsin was current Seahawks’ OC Darrell Bevell, but there are people on Twitter who are adamant that Ballard wants Chiefs’ special teams coach Dave Toub to be the next coach in Indianapolis.

    7) Green Bay Packers pushed GM Ted Thompson out of his job and gave coach Mike McCarthy a one-year contract extension.

    6) Odd Fact of the Day: A pair of twins was born in Delano, CA this week; a boy was born just before midnight Sunday night, and his twin sister was born just after midnight, meaning the twins were actually born in different years. You don’t see that a lot.

    5) West Virginia is getting F Asa Ahmad eligible to play for the January 13 game against Texas Tech. Big addition for the Mountaineers, who are 14-1 and rolling.

    4) It bothers me that pro and college teams use “search firms” to find new coaches. For the love of God, I’m sitting in my living room and I could direct teams to solid candidates. For free.

    Lot of times the search firm got the current decision-maker his job, so this is a case of paying back the people who got you your job.

    If you’re an NFL or NBA GM and you don’t know who the best candidates are to be your new coach, then:
    a) You probably shouldn’t be the GM of a pro team or
    b) Maybe you shouldn’t have fired the guy you just fired.

    3) Based on what I heard on the ESPN Film Room Monday night, Bret Bielema could be TV gold if he chooses to head in the direction. He has a great baritone voice, is sarcastic and appears to have a pretty good sense of humor- he cracked that he might have a career as an instant replay official after he called one review correctly Monday.

    2) Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl; they split with Georgia, but Bama-Georgia will play for the college football national title, while Auburn lost their bowl game to an AAC team. That must be going over real well down on the Plains.

    1) Alabama-Georgia in Atlanta’s new dome Monday night; its good to be a scalper, not so good to own a hotel in the Atlanta area— lot fewer out-of-towners coming in for the game.

  3. #3
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    NHL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, January 3


    Detroit won seven of its last ten games with Ottawa; six of last eight series games stayed under total. Senators lost last three visits to Detroit, outscored 13-6. Ottawa lost five of its last six games overall- they lost last five road games, outscored 18-6. Four of their last six games went over total. Red Wings is 4-3 in its last seven games; they won their last three home games. Under is 7-2 in last nine Detroit games.

    Road team won six of last seven Chicago-Ranger games; Blackhawks won their last three games in Manhattan by combined score of 8-4. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Chicago lost four of its last five games, all on road; their last three games went over total, with last two going to OT. New York is 2-3 in its last five games; four of those games went OT/SO. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Rangers won three of last four home games.




    NHL

    Wednesday, January 3


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
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    OTTAWA @ DETROIT
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Ottawa is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Ottawa

    CHICAGO @ NY RANGERS
    Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
    Chicago is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Rangers's last 7 games
    NY Rangers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-03-2018 at 11:27 AM.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, January 3


    Ottawa @ Detroit

    Game 51-52
    January 3, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    10.219
    Detroit
    11.775
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 1 1/2
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    -135
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (-135); Under

    Chicago @ NY Rangers


    Game 53-54
    January 3, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    11.341
    NY Rangers
    12.202
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Rangers
    by 1
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Rangers
    -150
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Rangers
    (-150); Over





    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, January 3


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OTTAWA (12-17-0-8, 32 pts.) at DETROIT (15-16-0-7, 37 pts.) - 1/3/2018, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 12-25 ATS (+37.1 Units) in all games this season.
    OTTAWA is 2-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.
    OTTAWA is 35-30 ATS (+69.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 27-19 ATS (+46.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 12-32 ATS (+45.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 11-18 ATS (-9.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    DETROIT is 11-21 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 7-4 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 7-4-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.2 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHICAGO (18-14-0-6, 42 pts.) at NY RANGERS (21-13-0-5, 47 pts.) - 1/3/2018, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season this season.
    NY RANGERS are 28-12 ATS (+13.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    NY RANGERS are 63-67 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.
    NY RANGERS are 237-231 ATS (-131.5 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
    CHICAGO is 3-2-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 01-03-2018 at 11:28 AM.

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    UNDER is 4-0 in Senators' last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
    UNDER is 13-3 in Wings' last 16 vs. Atlantic.
    UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
    OTT/DET Total: 5.5

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    Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions
    FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG
    ================================================== ================================================== =======================
    NEW YORK RANGERS 0.36 0.27 0.32 0.88 chicago blackhaw NEW YORK RANGERS 2.99 - 2.57 0.41 5.56 chicago blackhaw
    DETROIT RED WING 0.42 0.29 0.25 0.86 ottawa senators DETROIT RED WING 3.21 - 2.49 0.72 5.69 ottawa senators
    Common sense is not so common.
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