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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 ( Sun., Dec. 31 )

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 ( Sun., Dec. 31 )



    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, December 31

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Last edited by Udog; 12-31-2017 at 08:57 PM.

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    NFL opening line report: Setting lines for Week 17 is always a challenge for oddsmakers
    Patrick Everson

    “Early sharp money is on Atlanta, but it’s doubtful this will get too out of hand, considering the Panthers still have something to play for.”

    Sportsbooks would love to have all the lines up already for the final week of the NFL’s regular season, but enough uncertainties exist in pivotal games that some numbers will have to wait until Tuesday. Still, Patrick Everson has some insights on where the lines will land in Week 17, thanks to Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (no line)

    The line for this NFC East clash is on hold since Philadelphia played in the Week 16 Monday nighter against Oakland. The Eagles (13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS) were awful on their home field, but connected on a last-minute field goal, then picked up a Raiders fumble on one of those last-second lateral plays and scored a touchdown to secure a 19-10 victory as a 10-point favorite.

    With that win, Philly clinched home-field advantage for as long as it stays in the NFC playoffs.

    Dallas (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) was eliminated from postseason contention on Sunday, despite being on its home field and with Ezekiel Elliott back in the lineup. The Cowboys dominated the yardage stats against Seattle, but had three turnovers while forcing none, and that was a huge key in a 21-12 loss as a 4.5-point home chalk.

    “This one won’t be as glamorous as it would’ve been had Dallas won in Week 16, but it will still deliver decent action given the teams,” Cooley said. “We have to expect Nick Foles will still be playing considering his limited time in the system, and the Eagles are deep, so them limiting starters doesn’t hurt them too much. Philadelphia deserves to be favored here, as it is just a much better team all around.”

    Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

    Atlanta is clinging to the sixth and final NFC playoff spot, with its Week 16 result putting the defending NFC champion in the likely position of having to win this week to stay in that spot. The Falcons went to New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog Sunday and couldn’t get the offense going in a 23-13 setback.

    Carolina is currently in the wild-card spot of No. 5 in the NFC, but could still win the South Division and, though unlikely, get as high as the No. 2 seed. The Panthers (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) barely escaped as a 10-point home fave against Tampa Bay on Sunday, with a last-minute Cam Newton touchdown securing a 22-19 victory.

    “Obviously, the Falcons have everything on the line in this one,” Cooley said. “Early sharp money is on Atlanta, but it’s doubtful this will get too out of hand, considering the Panthers still have something to play for.”

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (no line)

    Jacksonville is stuck at the No. 3 slot in the AFC, regardless of what happens in Week 17. The Jaguars (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) had won seven of eight heading into San Francisco on Sunday, but lost a shootout 44-33 laying 4 points.

    However, thanks to Tennessee also losing in Week 16, the Jags clinched the South Division. The Titans (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) fell to the Los Angeles Rams 27-23 as a 5.5-point home pup, their third straight defeat, yet still managed to hang on to the AFC’s No. 6 seed. The Chargers and Bills remain in contention to swipe that spot from the Titans.

    Cooley said Bookmaker.eu was waiting until Tuesday to post this line, recognizing Jacksonville might not field all its best players.

    “It doesn’t feel like the Jags are really in a position to sit players, considering the youth on that team, but you never know,” Cooley said. “Tennessee’s season is on the line. The Titans should be favorites given the situation.”

    San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

    Los Angeles continues to be a major surprise this season and currently occupies the No. 3 seed in the NFC race, already owning the West Division title. The Rams (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) held off Tennessee 27-23 Sunday, failing to cash as 5.5-point road favorites.

    The Jimmy Garoppolo era is off to a strong start in San Francisco, with the team 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since he took over as signal-caller. In Week 16, the 49ers (5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS) had their biggest scoring output of the season, beating Jacksonville 44-33 as a 4-point home ‘dog.

    “I definitely don’t expect L.A. to rest any of its young guns, as the Rams need experience and rhythm,” Cooley said. “That said, the public loves Jimmy G and the Niners right now, so we have to be wary of that and the fact that the Rams are in limbo of sorts.”

    Cooley said the Rams will certainly be favored, but the number could be a little tighter if it looks like any key players are resting this week.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 17


    Sunday, December 31

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    CINCINNATI (6 - 9) at BALTIMORE (9 - 6) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BALTIMORE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    GREEN BAY (7 - 8) at DETROIT (8 - 7) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 67-40 ATS (+23.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    DETROIT is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    DETROIT is 134-173 ATS (-56.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BUFFALO (8 - 7) at MIAMI (6 - 9) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 71-99 ATS (-37.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
    MIAMI is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in December games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CAROLINA (11 - 4) at ATLANTA (9 - 6) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 113-83 ATS (+21.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    CAROLINA is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ORLEANS (11 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 11) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    JACKSONVILLE (10 - 5) at TENNESSEE (8 - 7) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    JACKSONVILLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY JETS (5 - 10) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    NY JETS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (4 - 11) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 12) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CLEVELAND (0 - 15) at PITTSBURGH (12 - 3) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
    CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
    CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
    CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WASHINGTON (7 - 8) at NY GIANTS (2 - 13) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 62-94 ATS (-41.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CHICAGO (5 - 10) at MINNESOTA (12 - 3) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
    MINNESOTA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
    MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games this season.
    MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
    MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DALLAS (8 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 2) - 12/31/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    DALLAS is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OAKLAND (6 - 9) at LA CHARGERS (8 - 7) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    OAKLAND is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ARIZONA (7 - 8) at SEATTLE (9 - 6) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    SEATTLE is 68-39 ATS (+25.1 Units) in December games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    KANSAS CITY (9 - 6) at DENVER (5 - 10) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 10) at LA RAMS (11 - 4) - 12/31/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 184-230 ATS (-69.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 184-230 ATS (-69.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 84-119 ATS (-46.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 132-181 ATS (-67.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 143-182 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 62-95 ATS (-42.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NFL

    Week 17


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, December 31

    CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
    Minnesota is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

    GREEN BAY @ DETROIT
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home

    HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games

    NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND
    NY Jets is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
    New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

    WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 14 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games
    NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

    DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games
    Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Philadelphia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games

    CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cleveland's last 14 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

    JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
    Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

    CAROLINA @ ATLANTA
    Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

    CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE
    Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
    Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
    Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

    BUFFALO @ MIAMI
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games

    NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans

    OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
    Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
    LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

    SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS
    San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
    LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games
    Seattle is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
    Seattle is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games

    KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games


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    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 17


    As Armadillo adds matchups to this report, I'll add them to this reply.

    Week 17 games
    Bengals (6-9) @ Ravens (9-6)— Ravens win and they’re in; Baltimore won five of last six games, is 3-2-1 as a home favorite this year- they’re 5-2 SU at home, losing to Steelers/Bears. In their last eight games, Ravens outscored opponents 125-61 in 2nd half. Bengals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-15-16-4-27 points. Baltimore (+3) blanked Bengals 20-0 to open season, using five takeaways (+4) and a 154-77 rushing edge, but Ravens are just 2-6 in last eight series games- Bengals won two of last three visits here. Favorites are 6-4 vs spread in AFC North games this year. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Raven games, under is 4-2 in Cincy’s last six road games.

    Packers (7-8) @ Lions (8-7)— Detroit is 2-3 in its last five games, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 12-14-10 points, but they’re only 3-4 SU at home, which is why they’ll miss playoffs. Packers are 3-7 since Rodgers first got hurt; they’re 3-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs. Green Bay is -6 in turnovers in its last two games, with no takeaways. Detroit (-2.5) won first meeting 30-17 at Lambeau in Week 9; they threw for 353 yards (10.4 ypa). Teams split last eight series games; Packers won last two visits here, 27-23/31-24. Favorites are 5-4-1 vs spread in NFC North games this season. Last three Lion games stayed under the total; four of last five Green Bay games went over total.

    Bills (8-7) @ Dolphins (6-9)— Buffalo (-3) held on to beat Miami 24-16 at home two weeks ago; Bills were +3 in turnovers, converted 7-15 on 3rd down. Buffalo needs win here and lot of help to make playoffs for first time since ’99. Bills are 3-2 in last five games, 2-5 on road, 0-1 as road favorites- their road wins were at Falcons/Chiefs. Miami lost seven of its last nine games; but they’re 4-2 SU at home, 2-0-1 as home underdogs, losing to Bucs/Raiders. Buffalo is 6-3 in last nine series games; teams split last four games played here. Home teams are 8-1-1 vs spread in AFC East games this season. Over is 7-1-1 in Dolphins’ last nine games, 7-3 in Buffalo’s last ten games.

    Panthers (11-4) @ Falcons (9-6)— Atlanta clinches playoff berth with win; Carolina clinches NFC South with win and Saints loss. Panthers won their last three games, scoring 27 ppg; they are 5-2 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses at Bears/Saints. Falcons won five of last seven games, are 4-3 at home SU/ATS- they scored only 10 points on four red zone drives in Superdome Sunday. Panthers (-1) won first meeting 20-17 in Week 9, outrushing Falcons 201-53 wth a 16-yard edge in field position. Falcons won three of last four series games; Panthers lost 20-13/48-33 in last two visits here. Home favorites are 6-3 vs spread in NFC South games this year. Five of last six Carolina games went over total; last four Atlanta games stayed under.

    Saints (11-4) @ Buccaneers (4-11)— New Orleans clinches NFC South and home game next week with win here. Saints are 11-2 since an 0-2 start, but losses came in last two road games; they’re already in playoffs. In its last three games, NO is just 9-33 on 3rd down. Saints are 3-3 on road, 2-0 as road favorites. Buccaneers lost five in row, 10 of their last 11 games; they’re 3-4 at home, 2-2 as home underdogs. Saints (-7) drilled Tampa Bay 30-10 in Week 9, blocking punt for TD, outgaining Bucs 407-200. NO won 10 of last 12 series games; they’re won four of last five visits here, losing 16-11 here LY. Home teams are 7-3 vs spread in NFC South games this year, 1-0 as underdogs. Under is 6-2 in Bucs’ last eight games, 5-1 in Saints true road games.

    Jaguars (10-5) @ Titans (8-7)— Titans need win to make playoffs; they waxed Jacksonville 37-16 (-1.5) in Week 2, running ball for 179 yards with +2 turnover ratio- Titans had 17-yard edge in field position. Jaguars/Tennessee split season series the last eight years;. Jaguars lost last three visits here, by 2-3-14 points. Jaguars won seven of last nine games; they’re 4-3 on road, 2-3 as road favorites- they scored TDs on 12 of last 13 red zone drives. Tennessee lost last three games; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Raiders, Rams. Seven of their last nine games were decided by 5 or less points. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South games this year. Four of last five Jaguar games went over the total.

    Jets (5-10) @ Patriots (12-3)— New England needs win to lock up #1 seed in AFC. Patriots won, covered last four home games. Under is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games. In their last six games. NE outscored opponents 88-35 in second half. Jets lost three in row, eight of last 10 games- they are 2-2-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 9-25-3-5-23-12 points, beating Cleveland for only road win. Pats (-9.5) won first meeting 24-17 in Week 6; both teams had 23 first downs and converted over 50% on 3rd down. Patriots won three in row, 11 of last 13 series games; Jets are 0-6 in Foxboro since winning a 2010 playoff game here. Home teams are 8-1-1 vs spread in AFC East games this season.

    Texans (4-11) @ Colts (3-12)— Short week for Houston after Christmas loss vs Steelers; they’ve now lost five games in row, are 0-3-1 vs spread in last four road games, losing away games by 3-3-26-7-11-38 points. Indy lost its last six games, is 1-4 vs spread in last five; Colts are 1-3 vs spread in last four games as home underdogs. Colts (+7) won 20-14 in Houston in Week 9, first game after Texans QB Watson went down for year. Houston was scoreless in two trips to red zone. Texans won three of last four series games; they won last two visits here, 16-10/22-17. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South games this year. Over is 8-4 in last dozen Houston games; last seven Colt games stayed under the total.

    Browns (0-15) @ Steelers (11-3)— Cleveland is 1-30 last two years, 3-12 vs spread this season, 1-6 as road underdogs- in their last four games, Browns were outscored 54-10 in second half. Steelers can get #1 seed in AFC with win and Jets’ win in NE (yeah, sure). Pittsburgh won nine of last ten games, is 3-3 as home favorites- their last three home games were decided by total of seven points. Pitt blocked punt for TD in 21-18 (-8.5) Week 1 win over the Browns; total yardage was just 290-237- Steelers ran ball for only 35 yards, had 144 penalty yards. Steelers won five in row, 13 of last 15 series games; Browns lost their last 13 games here. Favorites are 6-4 vs spread in AFC North games this year. Over is 4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last five home games.

    Redskins (7-8) @ Giants (2-13)— Washington is 3-2 in its last five games; they’re 2-5 on road, 0-1 as road favorite- they lost last three road games, by 3-24-17 points. Redskins are 8 of last 34 on 3rd down. Giants lost last five games, are 1-6 at home, 2-4 as home underdogs- their one home win was over Kansas City in OT. Washington (-7) beat the Giants 20-10 in first meeting on a Thursday, holding NJ to 86 passing yards- Giants were 2-14 on 3rd down, averaged 2.8 ypa. Washington won three of last four series games, but they’ve lost four of last five visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East games this season. Four of last five Redskin games stayed under total, as have five of Giants’ last six games.

    Bears (5-10) @ Vikings (12-3)— Vikings can get #1 seed in NFC with win here and Eagle loss to Dallas. Minnesota won 10 of last 11 games; they’re 5-1 as home favorites this year- their one home loss was 14-7 to Detroit. In last six games, Viking foes are 17-75 on 3rd down. Chicago won two of last three games, outscoring opponents 42-7 in 2nd half; Bears are 3-4 as road underdogs. Minnesota (-3.5) won first meeting 20-17, despite averaging only 3.9 ypa; Vikings were +2 in turnovers- they’re 5-1 in last six series games. Bears lost last five visits to Twin Cities, by 7-3-4-21-28 points. Favorites are 5-4-1 in NFC North games this season. Three of last four Viking games stayed under total; four of last five Chicago games stayed under.

    Cowboys (8-7) @ Eagles (13-2)— Dallas won three of last four games, but laid egg at home vs Seattle LW and is out of playoffs. Cowboys are 5-2 on road, 1-3 vs spread as underdogs so far this season. Eagles are 5-2 as home favorites this year they’re 12-1 in last 13 games, winning last three, by 8-5-3 points. Philly (-4) outscored Dallas 30-0 in 2nd half, beat Cowboys 37-9 in Week 11, running ball for 215 yards, holding Cowboys without a TD, with a +4 turnover ratio. Road team won six of last nine series games; Dallas won four of last five visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East games this season. Seven of last eight Cowboy games stayed under total; four of last six Philly games stayed under.

    Raiders (6-9) @ Chargers (8-7)— Will be weird atmosphere; not sure which team will have more fans. Bolts can still get in playoffs with win here and some help; they beat Oakland 17-16 (+3.5) in Week 6, with +2 turnover ratio- Raiders didn’t score on their only red zone trip. Oakland won four of last five series games; they won 37-29/19-16 in last two visits to San Diego. Raiders lost their 3rd straight game 13-10 in frigid Philly Monday night, so short week here; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs this season. Chargers won won five of last six games, are 2-2 as home favorites- they won last four games in Carson. Home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Nine of last ten Charger games stayed under total.

    Cardinals (7-8) @ Seahawks (9-6)— Seattle gained TOTAL of 285 yards on 108 plays in their last two games, but they still get in playoffs with win and an Atlanta loss; Hawks lost three of last four home games, are 1-5 as home favorites this year. Seahawks beat Arizona 22-16 (-6) in first meeting, despite converting only 3-13 on 3rd down, 108 penalty yards. Road team is 5-1-1 in last seven series games; Cardinals won three of last four visits here. Arizona is 3-2 in its last five games, but is 0-4 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 12-27-10-5 points, with wins at Colts/49ers. Home teams are 1-7-1 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Under is 7-4 in last 11 Seahawk games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three games.

    Chiefs (9-6) @ Broncos (5-10)— Denver is 2-9 in its last 11 games after starting year 3-1, with wins over Colts/Jets; they’re 4-3 at home, 1-3 as home favorites. Broncos did run ball for 372 yards in last two games. Lynch is expected to start at QB for Denver, which insists on running QB tryouts during season. Chiefs won last three games after a 1-6 skid; they lost last four road games. KC already clinched AFC West; they’ve got playoff game next week. Chiefs (-7) beat Denver 29-19 in first meeting, with five takeaways (+3) and 16-yard edge in field position- they started five drives in Denver territory. Chiefs won last four series games; they won 29-13/30-27 in last two visits here. Home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Six of Chiefs’ last seven games stayed under total, as have five of last six Bronco games.

    49ers (5-10) @ Rams (11-4)— Rams won NFC West, have home playoff game next week, would expect some key guys to get time off here. 49ers won five of last six games after 0-9 start with Garoppolo now 6-0 as an NFL starter; Niners are 5-2 as road underdogs- they averaged 7+ ypa in each of last four games. LA won huge road game in Seattle/Nashville last two weeks to reach playoff for first time in 13 years. Rams (-2.5) won first meeting 41-39 in Week 3, averaging 10.4 ypa- they had eight plays of 20+ yards. Teams split last six meetings; three of last four were decided by 3 or less points. Home teams are 1-7-1 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Under is 5-2 in 49ers’ road games; Rams’ last four games went over total.

    2017 week-by-week results
    HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
    1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
    2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
    3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
    4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
    5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
    6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
    7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
    8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
    9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
    10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
    11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
    12) 7-2-1 1-5 8-8 2-2
    13) 5-4 5-2 7-9 2-0A
    14) 5-4 4-3 7-8 4-2N
    15) 7-2 3-3-1 7-9 4-0N

    T) 70-62-2 39-40-3 106-115-2 35-19N
    Last edited by Udog; 12-27-2017 at 11:22 AM.

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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17
    Monty Andrews

    Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 43.5)

    Packers' red-zone dominance vs. Lions' downfield doldrums

    The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions both came into the 2017 season with plenty of hope - but these NFC North rivals have nothing to play for but price after injuries and inconsistency torpedoed their seasons. But both teams would love to close the season out on a positive note - and in that regard, the visiting Packers have a significant advantage heading into the finale, as they look to continue their red-zone success against a Lions team that has struggled to keep teams off the scoreboard inside the 20.

    The Packers can only wonder what could have been after losing quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a collarbone injury midway through the season. But Green Bay can hang its hat on the fact that it will end the regular season as one of the top teams in the NFL when it comes to scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Packers come into Week 17 having scored six points on nearly 61 percent of its trips inside the opposing 20-yard line; only Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Chicago and Oakland have been more prolific.

    That spells major problems for the Lions, who have allowed the fourth-most points in the NFC going into the final week of the regular season. It hasn't helped that Detroit has been punished repeatedly deep in its own territory, allowing foes to score touchdowns on more than 61 percent of trips inside the red zone - ahead of only the Packers and Cleveland Browns. Green Bay is a little less scary with Brett Hundley under center, but this is still a mismatch the Packers can exploit Sunday afternoon.

    Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5, 38.5)

    Browns' third-down problems vs. Steelers elite drive-extension skills

    This game is creating all sorts of problems for bettors, with the Steelers hinting - but not outright saying - that star players might get some rest in the finale. That has resulted in a line drop of 5 1/2 points - and the line should shift dramatically once the Steelers' roster strategy becomes clear. But no matter what happens, Pittsburgh will come into the game as a heavy favorite thanks in no small part to a significant edge over the visitors when it comes to third-down opportunities.

    The Browns will do everything in their power to avoid becoming just the second team in NFL season to finish a season 0-16 - and not joining the 2008 Detroit Lions in league infamy will require a much better effort at defending the Steelers on third down. The Browns rank 24th in the NFL at opposing third-down conversion rate, allowing teams to score or extend drives on 41.1 percent of opportunities. That number jumps to 45.8 percent over the past three games.

    Even without knowing what the Steelers will do, bettors should look to Pittsburgh's elite third-down performance as a reason to favor the home side in this one. The Steelers have converted an incredible 44.7 percent of their third-down chances; only the Atlanta Falcons have been better. And over the last three games, Pittsburgh has had no equal, making good on better than 63 percent of its third downs. A repeat performance Sunday will almost certainly secure the Browns a place in NFL history.

    San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+1, 44.5)

    Jimmy Garoppolo vs. a potential parade of Rams backups

    Congratulations to anyone who managed to snag the 49ers +6 when this line opened; things changed quickly once it became clear that the Rams might rest several of its starters this week, with the division title already sewn up and no chance of securing home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. That makes the Rams slight underdogs in oddsmakers' eyes - and gives the 49ers an excellent chance of ending its regular season on an improbable five-game winning streak.

    It's no coincidence that the 49ers went from easy mark to world beater once they inserted recent acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback. Garoppolo has won all four of his starts, racking up 1,268 passing yards and five touchdowns over that span. He accounted for three touchdowns in last week's 44-33 victory over powerhouse Jacksonville, and has the San Francisco offense averaging a healthy 27.5 points over his four-game stretch; the 49ers have covered three of those four games.

    The Rams were in great position to end the 49ers' winning streak - at least in oddsmakers' eyes - before head coach Sean McVay suggested that resting players was "a luxury we want to take advantage of." Even if quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and other stars make the start, it's a virtual certainty they won't be on the field in the second half, regardless of how the first 30 minutes play out. This game means a lot more to the visiting team - and that should be reflected in the result.

    Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9, 38.5)

    Cardinals' penalty-drawing prowess vs. Seahawks' lack of discipline

    The Seahawks face a simple objective heading into the final week of the season: Win, and they still have a shot at the playoffs. Host Seattle is an overwhelming favorite in Sunday's encounter with the rival Arizona Cardinals, but that doesn't mean much considering how disappointing the Seahawks have been as a home cover this season (2-5 ATS). And while Arizona is the inferior team in oddsmakers' eyes, it has a major advantage in the penalty department.

    Arizona hasn't exactly been a model franchise this season - its 107 accepted penalties are 10th-most in the NFL. But no team has drawn as many penalty flags as the Cardinals (121), resulting in a plus-14 penalty differential that ranks fourth overall. Even more significantly, Arizona's plus-173 penalty-yard margin is the best in the NFL. Arizona fell 22-16 to Seattle in their prior encounter, but drew 12 Seahawks penalties for a whopping 108 yards - a development that contributed to the tight score.

    That game serves as a suitable microcosm for the Seahawks' season, one that has been marred by a crippling lack of discipline. Seattle's 140 accepted penalties are 17 more than the next-closest team, and its 1,242 accepted penalty yards exceed runner-up Houston's total by a whopping 225 yards. It's no surprise, then that the Seahawks also rank at the bottom of the league ledger in penalty differential (minus-42) and penalty-yard margin (minus-389).

  7. #7
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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 17


    Sunday, December 31

    Cincinnati @ Baltimore

    Game 301-302
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    128.762
    Baltimore
    134.922
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 6
    36
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 10
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (+10); Under

    Green Bay @ Detroit


    Game 303-304
    December 31, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    127.523
    Detroit
    131.698
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 4
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 7 1/2
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (+7 1/2); Under

    Buffalo @ Miami


    Game 305-306
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    133.819
    Miami
    127.249
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Buffalo
    by 6 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Buffalo
    by 2 1/2
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    (-2 1/2); Over

    Carolina @ Atlanta


    Game 307-308
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    133.412
    Atlanta
    139.873
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 6 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 3
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (-3); Over

    New Orleans @ Tampa Bay


    Game 309-310
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    134.716
    Tampa Bay
    131.298
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 3 1/2
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 7 1/2
    50
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (+7 1/2); Over

    Jacksonville @ Tennessee


    Game 311-312
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    132.469
    Tennessee
    132.672
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    Even
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 3 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (+3 1/2); Over

    NY Jets @ New England


    Game 313-314
    December 31, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    124.324
    New England
    141.785
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 17 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 15 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-15 1/2); Over

    Houston @ Indianapolis


    Game 315-316
    December 31, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    121.706
    Indianapolis
    128.612
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 7
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 3 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (-3 1/2); Under

    Cleveland @ Pittsburgh


    Game 317-318
    December 31, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    127.652
    Pittsburgh
    135.557
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 8
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 14
    38
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+14); Over

    Washington @ NY Giants


    Game 319-320
    December 31, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    128.423
    NY Giants
    129.515
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Giants
    by 1
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 3
    37 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+3); Over

    Chicago @ Minnesota


    Game 321-322
    December 31, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    127.811
    Minnesota
    141.709
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 14
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 11 1/2
    39 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-11 1/2); Over

    Dallas @ Philadelphia


    Game 323-324
    December 31, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    135.419
    Philadelphia
    130.299
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 5
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 2 1/2
    39
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (-2 1/2); Over

    Oakland @ LA Chargers


    Game 325-326
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    124.896
    LA Chargers
    136.823
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 12
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 7 1/2
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Chargers
    (-7 1/2); Under

    Arizona @ Seattle


    Game 327-328
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    126.322
    Seattle
    139.785
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 13 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 8 1/2
    38 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (-8 1/2); Over

    Kansas City @ Denver


    Game 329-330
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    131.209
    Denver
    132.106
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 1
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 4
    37 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (+4); Over

    San Francisco @ LA Rams


    Game 331-332
    December 31, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    133.509
    LA Rams
    135.897
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 2 1/2
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    by 2 1/2
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (+2 1/2); Under

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    Essential Week 17 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

    The Steelers-Browns spread moved 10 points with word that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin might rest starting running back Le'Veon Bell and starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

    Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11.5, 39.5)

    The Vikings will earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff seeding and a first round bye if they beat the Bears. The fate of Bears coaching staff is tenuous to say the least. Chicago is 15-32 straight up under head coach John Fox.

    Minnesota smashed Chicago 38-10 when the two teams faced each other in Week 17 last season.

    LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Vikes giving as many as 13 points to the Bears but most shops are dealing Bears +11.5 on Saturday. The total has dropped a half point from the opening line of 40.

    TRENDS:

    *The Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with losing records.
    *The under is 5-0 in the Bears’ last five games.

    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5, 39)

    There is nothing at stake for either team in this game. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson has said all his starters will play but probably not for the whole game. The Cowboys will play all their healthy starters according to head coach Jason Garrett.

    LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as short chalk but the line quickly flipped once the game became meaningless to Philly.

    TRENDS:

    *The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
    *The under is 7-1 in the Cowboys’ last eight games.

    New York Jets at New England Patriots (-14.5, 43.5)

    Nothing is on the line for the Jets who’ve been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks now. Head coach Todd Bowles had his contract extended which removes his feet from the fire of the New York media. He won’t feel pressured to win a game his team is a two-touchdown underdog to keep from being fired.

    The Patriots need to win to secure the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs. The game-time temperature for this game is expected to be around 11 degrees F.

    LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened as high as Pats -16.5 and are still at that spread. Others are dealing -15.5 and 14.5. The total opened at 46 and has dropped to as low as 43.

    TRENDS:

    *The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Pats.
    *The under is 8-3 in New England’s last 11 games.

    Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 36.5)

    The Browns have nothing to play for except their pride as they try to avoid an 0-16 season. The Steelers still have a shot at the top overall seed in the AFC but they are acting under the presumption the Patriots will beat the Jets and take the No. 1 spot.

    Steelers coach Mike Tomlin won’t say for sure if his starters will play but beat reporters for the team think it’s unlikely quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and running back Le’Veon Bell will play. That would mean Pittsburgh would be without their three key offensive playmakers against Cleveland because All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown is already out with a calf injury.

    LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as high as 16.5-point chalk but the line has dropped a full 10 points once bettors and bookies got the hint that Pittsburgh would be resting key starters. The total took a major plunge too. It opened at 41 and most shops are now at 36.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
    *The Browns are 15-36-1 in their last 52 games.

    Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 40.5)

    Both of these teams have been out of the playoff picture for weeks. Houston can’t keep any of its quarterbacks from getting their heads caved in. Tom Savage is recovering from a series of concussions he picked up this season. T.J. Yates had to leave the game against Pittsburgh while team staff evaluated him for a possible concussion. Taylor Heinicke started the second half against Pitt and promptly got crushed and suffered a head injury himself.

    Yates cleared concussion protocol and will start against the Colts and Heinicke is expected to serve as the backup. Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins is not expected to play on Sunday because of a calf injury.

    LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened as field goal favorites at most locations and are now giving as many as six points at some books. The total opened at 43 and has dropped to 40.

    TRENDS:

    *The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
    *The under is 7-0 in the Colts’ last seven games.

    Washington Redskins at New York Giants (+3, 39.5)

    The Redskins have been missing key offensive contributors for weeks but that didn’t stop them from putting up 27 points against the league’s best defensive team (Denver) last week. Offensive tackle Trent Williams is officially done for the year and will be out for the next six months. This could be impending free agent Kirk Cousins’ last game as Washington’s quarterback.

    Giants interim head coach Steve Spagnuolo is auditioning to be the HC next season. The audition is going great so far. The G-Men are 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) while being outscored 39-87 since Spagnuolo took over for Ben McAdoo.

    LINE HISTORY: The line has bounced around all week between Washington -3 and -3.5. The books are playing with the juice to determine whether they want to be at or over the field goal spread. The total opened at 38.5 and has gone up to 39.5 at some shops.

    TRENDS:

    *The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against NFC East opponents.
    *The Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Week 17 games.

    Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 43)

    Both of these NFC North rivals are just playing out the string in this contest. The Lions were elimintated from the playoffs after they lost 26-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Lions owner Martha Ford wouldn’t say if head coach Jim Caldwell will return as the head coach next season.

    The Packers already placed quarterback Aaron Rodgers on IR. Wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones are all expected to sit this game out due to injuries.

    LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as high as 8.5-point chalk but dropped down a couple points once they had been eliminated from the postseason.

    TRENDS:

    *The favorite is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings between the Lions and Packers.
    *The over is 21-7 in the Packers’ last 28 games.

    San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+4, 43.5)

    The Rams will rest multiple key starters in preparation for the playoffs including quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Sean Mannion will start under center for the Rams. He’s attempted 16 regular season pass attempts in his three seasons in the pros.

    The 49ers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since Jimmy Garoppolo took over the starting QB job.

    LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 4-point chalk but the line flipped once oddsmakers learned of coach Sean McVay’s plans to rest his key starters.

    TRENDS:

    *The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
    *The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Rams.

    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-4, 38)

    The playoff-bound Chiefs will rest starting quarterback Alex Smith against the Broncos and turn to rookie first round pick Patrick Mahomes II to handle the offensive snaps. Tyreek Hill – Kansas City’s leader in receiving yards – will sit this game out as well.

    LINE HISTORY: Denver opened as 1.5-point favorite but the line has grown as more and more KC players get ruled out of this game. The total opened at 39 and has come down a point to 38.

    TRENDS:

    *The Broncos are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
    *The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 40)

    The Ravens need a win to secure their spot in the AFC playoffs while the Bengals are playing in most likely Marvin Lewis’ last game as head coach.

    Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh isn’t happy with the NFL’s decision to move his team’s start time from the early to the late afternoon kickoff. The league wanted all teams with playoff impactions playing at the same time. The Ravens home crowd could be much smaller because the game is taking place on New Year’s Eve.

    LINE HISTORY: There’s been no real movement on the spread but the total has dropped from 40.5 to 40.

    TRENDS:

    *The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups between the Ravens and Bengals.
    *The Ravens are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against AFC North opponents.

    Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 42.5)

    The Bills need to be the Dolphins and then get some help in order for them to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. Buffalo needs the Ravens to lose to the Bengals or both the Chargers and Titans to lose on Sunday for a chance at a postseason berth.

    Miami held Bills running back LeSean McCoy to 50 yards on 20 carries in Week 15 but he still found the end zone three times en route to a 24-16 win and ATS cover. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards per game over the last three weeks at 81.3. The Bills are dead last in passing offense at just 175.9 yards per game.

    LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at 2.5 and a few shops toed the water at a field goal line for a little bit before returning to Bills -2.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The over is 8-2 in the Dolphins’ last 10 games.
    *The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two sides.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42)

    The Titans need to win this game to secure an AFC wild card playoff spot. The Jaguars are the AFC South champs and will host a playoff game next weekend. That isn’t keeping them from playing their starters this weekend though.

    Field conditions could be an issue in this game. The Titans’ home stadium was the site for the Music City Bowl played on Friday.

    LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as high as 6-point chalk but the line dropped down to a field goal spread once word spread Jacksonville would not be resting its starters for this game.

    TRENDS:

    *The Jags are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.
    *Tennessee is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

    Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9, 38.5)

    The Seahawks need to beat the Cardinals and see the Panthers top the Falcons in order to qualify for the playoffs. There was a bit of a hub-bub this week when Cards head coach Bruce Arians comments calling Seattle’s CenturyLink field “our home field.”

    Arians said this in the locker room addressing his team following the win over the Giants last weekend. Cameras were on and caught the comment. The Cardinals are 3-1 straight up and against the spread playing at Seattle since Arians took over the job in Arizona.

    LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 7.5-point faves and the line moved up to 10 by Saturday. The total opened at 40.5 and has since dropped to 38.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Cards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
    *The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games between these two teams.

    New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, 48)

    The Saints are definitely going to the playoffs but they can still improve their playoff positioning with a win over the Bucs on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Times reported Dirk Koetter will return as the Buccaneers’ head coach next season despite a 4-11 record this year.

    LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 7.5-point road faves and the line has dropped a point to rest at a 6.5-point spread. The total opened as high as 50.5 but dropped to 48 by the weekend.

    TRENDS:

    *The Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC South foes.
    *The under is 5-0 in the Bucs’ last five home games.

    Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 45)

    The Falcons need to either with this game against the Panthers or see the Seahawks fall to the Cardinals in order to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Panthers are still fighting for the NFC South division crown. They need to beat Atlanta and have New Orleans trip up against Tampa Bay.

    Falcons starting center Alex Mack is a game-time decision to play against Carolina because of a calf injury. Carolina has the third most takeaways in the league over the last eight games with 17.

    LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 3-point home chalk and the line has grown a half point to 3.5 since. The total opened around 47 and has dropped to as low as 45.

    TRENDS:

    *Carolina is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
    *The under is 4-0 in the Falcons’ last four games.

    Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 42)

    This could resemble a home game for the Raiders who haven’t played in Los Angeles for more than two decades but have a much larger fan base in the area than the Chargers.

    “I’m expecting it to be blacked out, regardless of the record that [the Raiders] have and what ours is,” Bolts running back Melvin Gordon told reporters. “I just keep having flashbacks to last year at Qualcomm when there were a million, a zillion Raiders fans there.”

    LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Bolts giving eight points but most shops are now dealing Chargers -7.5. The total opened around 44 but came down to 42.5 since then.

    TRENDS:

    *The under is 6-0 in the Raiders’ last six games.
    *The underdog is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 matchups between these two teams.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-31-2017 at 12:42 PM.

  9. #9
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    NFL

    Sunday, December 31


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Game of the Day betting preview and odds: Panthers at Falcons
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 45)

    The Atlanta Falcons can clinch a playoff berth with a win Sunday, but they won’t face a pushover opponent because the Carolina Panthers need a road win to retain their hopes of an NFC South title. The Falcons need a win or a Seattle loss to claim the final playoff spot in the NFC.

    Atlanta was knocked out of contention for the division title with a 23-13 loss at New Orleans last week, while Carolina kept alive its hopes of a division crown when Cam Newton’s rushing touchdown with 35 seconds left lifted the Panthers to a 22-19 win over Tampa Bay. The Panthers could still end up seeded anywhere from second to fifth in the NFC playoffs, though they need a win and some help from multiple other teams to improve upon the No. 5 seed they’re in line for with a loss or a New Orleans victory at Tampa Bay. Regardless, Carolina plans to play its starters and play to win, perhaps while keeping one eye on the scoreboard in case the result becomes irrelevant. The Panthers, who have won seven of their last eight, snapped a three-game losing streak against the Falcons with a 20-17 home win in Week 9.

    TV:
    4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Panthers (-3) - Falcons (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -1.5.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Falcons opened as 3.5-point home chalk at most shops, money coming in on Atlanta saw that line rise to -4 before returning to the opening number late in the week. The total hit the betting board at 47 and has been bet down at most shops to 45.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    Dome

    INJURY REPORT:


    Panthers - LB Thomas Davis (Probable, Suspension), DE Charles Johnson (Eligible, Suspension), G Trai Turner (Questionable, Concussion), WR Russell Shepard (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Cole Luke (Questionable, Ankle), DE Demetrious Cox (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jared Norris (I-R, Calf), OT John Theus (I-R, Concussion).

    Falcons - G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Tricep), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), LB Jordan Tripp (Questionable, Concussion), S Quincy Mauger (I-R, Knee).

    ABOUT THE PANTHERS (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 9-6 O/U):
    Carolina continues to get the job done in the trenches, ranking fourth in rushing offense and sixth in run defense. The guys who power that ground game – Newton and running backs Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey – will be among the first relegated to the bench if the Saints open a big lead against the Buccaneers. The defense that was dominant early in the season has given up bigger chunks of yardage of late but also has forced 10 turnovers in the past three games.

    ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS, 5-10 O/U):
    Atlanta has crept into the top 10 in the league in total offense after a slow start, but the Falcons managed only 331 total yards in last week’s loss at New Orleans. Matt Ryan is likely to surpass 4,000 passing yards for the seventh straight season, but his numbers represent a big dropoff from a year ago, and star receiver Julio Jones is battling ankle and thumb injuries. The defense has been excellent against the run most of the season but especially of late, holding three straight opponents and four of the last five under 100 rushing yards.

    TRENDS:


    * Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.

    * Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

    * Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

    * Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings.

    * Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road dog Panthers at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is getting 60 percent of the totals action.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-31-2017 at 12:43 PM.

  10. #10
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    NFL Wild Card opening line report: Sharp action moves lines early
    Patrick Everson

    "We know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be."

    A wild ending to Week 17 of the NFL season led to a late change in the roster of 12 playoff teams, eight of which will be on the field next weekend for the wild card playoff round. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)

    Buffalo got a late Christmas gift from the Cincinnati Bengals, who scored a last-minute touchdown to knock Baltimore out of the playoffs and put the Bills (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) into the postseason. Buffalo did its part Sunday by beating Miami 22-16 as a 2.5-point road favorite, then waited out the Bengals-Ravens game, with Baltimore’s loss sending the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

    Jacksonville already had the AFC’s No. 3 seed locked up prior to Sunday, and though the squad had plenty of betting support in Vegas, it didn’t translate to the field. The Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) lost a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog.

    Cooley said early sharp money came in on No. 6 seed Buffalo, dropping the line to Jags -7.

    “This feels like a high number, and some on the team wanted to see a much lower spread,” Cooley said. “We’ll see what Blake Bortles and that Jags offense is really made of here. Smart money feels like an under play on the total, and the betting public won’t be terribly interested in this one overall. The Bills are a value play that will garner pro money.”

    To Cooley’s point on the under, Bookmaker.eu opened the total at 41, and it was quickly bet down to 40 for this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.

    Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

    Tennessee needed a Week 17 win to reach the playoffs, and ugly as it may have been, Mike Mularkey’s troops got the job done. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snapped a nearly season-killing three-game SU skid by beating Jacksonville 15-10 as a 2.5-point chalk to nab the No. 5 seed.

    AFC West champ Kansas City couldn’t move up from the No. 4 seed, but that didn’t prevent Andy Reid’s squad from beating a hapless Denver unit. The Chiefs (10-6 SU and ATS) notched a 27-24 victory as a 3-point road ‘dog, despite resting quarterback Alex Smith and several other starters.

    Cooley was nonplused by Tennessee, but the Titans did see early sharp action, taking the line from K.C. -7.5 to -7 for this 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting.

    “Our ratings have the Titans as the worst team in the playoffs,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs have certainly been uninspiring during the second half of the season, but we’re going to have trouble attracting Tennessee money here. Like the other AFC matchup, it’s definitely not the sexiest, and we’ll have ample teaser and parlay liability with both of the favorites.”

    Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6)

    Defending NFC champion Atlanta had to win in Week 17 to ensure the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The Falcons (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) put the clamps on Carolina in a 22-10 victory laying 5 points at home.

    Third-seeded Los Angeles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) already had the NFC West locked up heading into Week 17 and rested quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley, among others. So it wasn’t a huge surprise that the Rams lost to Jimmy Garoppolo and late-surging San Francisco, 34-13 as a 6-point home pup.

    “We know that we’ll see solid Atlanta money from the public, given the star power on the team, but this isn’t your older brother’s Rams bunch,” Cooley said. “We do expect this to be bet down, but at the end of the day, L.A. is multiple pegs higher in the power ratings. We should get solid two-way action from the sharps and squares at this number.”

    Indeed, the number was bet down quickly for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest, with early sharp action on the visiting Falcons taking the line from L.A. -6 to -4.5.

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

    New Orleans ended up as the NFC South champion, but didn’t exactly end on the strongest note while falling from the No. 3 seed to No. 4 in Week 17. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) went to Tampa Bay as a 6-point fave and lost on a last-minute TD pass 31-24.

    Carolina could have taken advantage of that and claimed the division title and a home wild card game, but couldn’t get enough offense in its finale. The Panthers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) fell to Atlanta 22-10 catching 5 points on the road.

    “Given how this series played out during the regular season, the average bettor might expect a number closer to a touchdown,” Cooley said, alluding to Carolina’s 34-13 home win over New Orleans on Sept. 24 and the Saints’ 31-21 home payback a month ago. “But we know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be.”

    Still, the Saints got a little early shove from bettors, taking them from -5.5 to -6 for Sunday’s 4:30 p.m. ET clash.

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