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Thread: Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/18

  1. #1
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    Default Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 12/18

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, December 18

    Good Luck on day #352 of 2017!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks in Week 15 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) Dallas Cowboys, -3 (595)- T

    5) Los Angeles Rams, +2 (621)- W

    4) New England Patriots, -3 (670)- T

    3) Los Angeles Chargers, even (719)- L

    2) Kansas City Chiefs, even (750)- W

    1) San Francisco 49ers, -2 (765)- T

    Record of top 6 picks each week: 44-43-3


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Patriots 27, Steelers 24— NFL needs to fix its catch rule; it lacks common sense, but lets be real- Steelers could’ve kicked a FG on the next play and gone to OT. They gambled on the last play and it blew up on them the same way it blew up on Seattle in their Super Bowl loss to NE.

    Steelers converted 10-16 on 3rd down, outgained Patriots 413-360; they had 63 penalty yards, New England had 4 penalty yards. Four. This was the 3rd time in their last five games that New England had either one or two accepted penalties. Go figure.

    Patriots are now 13-2 vs spread coming off their last fifteen losses.

    Rams 42, Seahawks 7— Rams scored five TDs in this game, none on scoring drives longer than 47 yards; LA won field position by 24 yards, ran ball for 244 yards and totally dominated Seahawks’ offensive line. This was the Rams’ biggest game since 2003, and they came up huge.

    Rams haven’t clinched anything yet, but they look to be headed to the #3 seed in NFC. As for the Seahawks, Pete Carroll has to get them ready to play in Dallas Sunday- they’ll need help to make the playoffs, but they ain’t dead yet. Carroll has a lot of coaching to do this week.

    Jaguars 45, Texans 7— Jacksonville is in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, outgaining Houston 464-186 in this game. Jaguars won seven of last eight games, are right now the #3 seed in AFC- they visit Chargers, Titans in last two games.

    As for Houston, games like this get coaches fired, but O’Brien/Watson were a potent combo when the rookie QB was healthy. Will be interesting to see if Texans bring O’Brien back in 2018, seeing how they’re 1-7 in their last eight games.

    Cowboys 20, Raiders 17— In what was basically an elimination game between storied franchises, Dallas survived, thanks to winning a 4th down measurement by a millimeter, and then when Oakland QB Carr fumbled trying to stretch the ball over the goal line in the last minute- the ball went into the end zone for a touchback.

    Favorites are 13-0 SU this week (Chiefs/Rams closed as pick ‘em), 10-2-1 vs spread.

    Eagles 34, Giants 29— Eli Manning passed for 434 yards, but Philly won for 11th time in last 12 games, with two short TD drives of 20-18 yards. Eagles clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs; they were outgained 504-331 here, but they won field position by 11 yards and Nick Foles won his first start this season- he is 21-16 as an NFL starter. Philly is now 9-2 in its last 11 games vs the Giants in the Garden State.

    49ers 25, Titans 23— Niners won four of last five games after an 0-9 start; Garoppolo is first QB since Ben Roethlisberger to win his first five NFL starts. Titans-Bills-Ravens are in 3-way tie for the two AFC Wild Card slots- the last two weeks are going to be fun.

    Titans close with Rams/Jaguars at home; Ravens close with Colts/Bengals, Buffalo plays New England and Miami. Six of last eight Tennessee games were decided by 5 or less points.

    Next summer, 49ers will be a fashionable Cinderella pick in the NFC- the media loves John Lynch, the 49ers’ new GM. And now SF has its quarterback of the future.

    Panthers 31, Packers 24— Broken collarbones take 12 weeks to heal, whether its Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone or your collarbone or mine. He came back in eight weeks, was 26-45/290, with 3 TD’s, 3 INTs. You throw three INTs, you usually lose.

    Carolina has won six of its last seven games; they close with the Bucs/Falcons. With Green Bay pretty much out of it now, do they play Rodgers the last two games, or let his collarbone heal fully and let Brett Hundley play the last two games?

    Speaking of the Panthers, 81-year old owner Jerry Richardson will sell the team after news got out that he has paid off a few Panthers’ employees after they were harassed by Richardson, who has had a heart transplant and is the only NFL owner who also played in the league.

    Steph Curry tweeted that he is interested in buying into the Panthers.

    Vikings 34, Bengals 7— Minnesota clinches the NFC North by clubbing a disinterested Bengals team that will have a new coach next season. Cincy was outscored 67-14 in their last two games.

    It is easy to criticize Marvin Lewis because he never won a playoff game (0-7) in Cincinnati, but he is also 123-119-3 as coach of the Bengals. Cincinnati’s three coaches before Lewis combined to go 52-124 from 1992-2002.

    Wonder what odds you could’ve gotten in August for Case Keenum as NFL’s MVP?

    Bills 24, Dolphins 16— Tennessee’s loss to the 49ers is a big boost to Buffalo’s playoff chances; Bllls were +3 in turnovers here, allowed only one TD in Miami’s three red zone drives and now they are 8-6. Miami came to western New York on a short work week and now they’ve been outscored 144-54 in their last four road games.

    Home teams are 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season.

    Buffalo might want to practice clock management; they led 24-6 in 4th quarter, but Miami had the ball with 0;35 left near midfield, down 24-16, in what would’ve been an epic choke by Buffalo, which was snapping the ball with 0:10-0:20 left on play clock with 7-8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Need to milk that play clock for every second you can when you’re protecting a 4th quarter lead.

    Saints 31, Jets 19— Saints/Carolina are tied atop NFC South, but Saints swept Carolina. so they control own destiny. New Orleans has rematch with the Falcons this week; they’ve won their last six home games. Jets lost seven of last nine games. Saints had 7 plays of 20+ yards; they have 41 in their last six games.

    Redskins 20, Cardinals 15— Hard to win when you don’t score a touchdown; Arizona is only team this week not to score an offensive TD- they had ball in the red zone six times, kicked five FG’. Cardinals ran 80 plays to Washington’s 47, but only gained 286 yards, completing only 16-41 passes. Washington was out-rushed 497-192 in its last three games.

    Ravens 27, Browns 10— Baltimore won four of last five games; they’re in 3-way tie for two AFC Wild Cards, but right now, they’re odd team odd. Good news is that they close with couple of lame duck coaches, playing Colts/Bengals to finish season out.

    Baltimore had a 17-yard edge in field position, as Browns are now 1-29 the last two years- they are 3-11 vs spread this year. From sounds of things, USC’s coaches should be happy Cleveland is so terrible; USC QB Sam Darnold doesn’t want to play there, may stay in school another year.

  3. #3
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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Monday, December 18


    Anaheim @ New Jersey

    Game 1-2
    December 18, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Anaheim
    10.212
    New Jersey
    12.332
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Jersey
    by 2
    6
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Jersey
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Jersey
    N/A

    Los Angeles @ Philadelphia


    Game 3-4
    December 18, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Los Angeles
    10.908
    Philadelphia
    11.785
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 1
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    -120
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-120); Under

    Columbus @ Boston


    Game 5-6
    December 18, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Columbus
    11.734
    Boston
    10.319
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Columbus
    by 1 1/2
    5
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    -130
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Columbus
    (+110); Under

    Pittsburgh @ Colorado


    Game 7-8
    December 18, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    10.202
    Colorado
    11.342
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Colorado
    by 1
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    -165
    6
    Dunkel Pick:
    Colorado
    (+145); Over

    San Jose @ Edmonton


    Game 9-10
    December 18, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Jose
    9.988
    Edmonton
    11.847
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Edmonton
    by 2
    4
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    -130
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Edmonton
    (-130); Under





    NHL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, December 18

    Ducks won six of last seven games with New Jersey; they won three of last four visits to the Garden State. Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Anaheim is 3-5 in its last eight games; they lost four of last five road games. Seven of their last nine games stayed under. Devils are 3-4 in their last seven games; they split their last four home games. Four of their last five games went over total.

    Kings won four of their last five games with Philly; under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. LA won four of last five games in this building. Kings lost their last three games (all on road), allowing 13 goals, after an 8-game win streak; five of their last six games went over total. Flyers won their last six games, allowing total of nine goals; under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Philly won its last three home games.

    Columbus/Boston split their last ten games; Blue Jackets split their last four visits to Beantown. Last five series games went over total. Columbus is 3-4 in its last seven games; they lost three of last four road games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Bruins are 5-3 in their last eight games overall; they split last six home games. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

    Penguins are 5-3 in their last eight games with Colorado; road team won last four series games. Pittsburgh won four of last six visits to Denver. Six of last nine series games stayed under total. Penguins lost three of last four games; they’re 7-11 on road. Four of their last six games went over total. Colorado lost six of its last nine games, four of last five at home. Six of their last eight games went over the total.

    Oilers won seven of their last nine games with San Jose; Sharks lost three of last four games in Edmonton. Under is 3-2 in last five series games. San Jose is 3-4 in its last seven games; they lost three of last four road games. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games. Edmonton split its last eight games; they lost their last three home games. Three of their last four games stayed under the total.




    NHL

    Monday, December 18


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COLUMBUS @ BOSTON
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Columbus's last 5 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus's last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Columbus
    Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Columbus

    ANAHEIM @ NEW JERSEY
    Anaheim is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Jersey's last 8 games when playing at home against Anaheim
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games

    LOS ANGELES @ PHILADELPHIA
    Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home

    PITTSBURGH @ COLORADO
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
    Colorado is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games

    SAN JOSE @ EDMONTON
    San Jose is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Jose's last 12 games on the road
    Edmonton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-18-2017 at 02:23 PM.

  4. #4
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    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Monday, December 18


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ANAHEIM (14-11-0-8, 36 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (18-9-0-5, 41 pts.) - 12/18/2017, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW JERSEY is 18-14 ATS (+36.4 Units) in all games this season.
    NEW JERSEY is 18-14 ATS (+35.9 Units) first half of the season this season.
    ANAHEIM is 238-188 ATS (+34.4 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
    ANAHEIM is 426-429 ATS (+882.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
    NEW JERSEY is 5-14 ATS (-9.5 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ANAHEIM is 3-1 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
    ANAHEIM is 3-1-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.0 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LOS ANGELES (20-10-0-4, 44 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (14-11-0-7, 35 pts.) - 12/18/2017, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LOS ANGELES is 195-235 ATS (-76.0 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 ATS (+7.3 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 18-31 ATS (+49.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-8 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LOS ANGELES is 4-1 (+2.6 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    LOS ANGELES is 4-1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.2 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COLUMBUS (20-12-0-1, 41 pts.) at BOSTON (15-10-0-5, 35 pts.) - 12/18/2017, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    COLUMBUS is 18-4 ATS (+13.2 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
    COLUMBUS is 46-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 23-25 ATS (-10.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 3-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
    BOSTON is 22-33 ATS (-20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 4-3 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 4-3-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (17-14-0-3, 37 pts.) at COLORADO (15-15-0-2, 32 pts.) - 12/18/2017, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 9-20 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 6-11 ATS (-10.2 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    COLORADO is 235-202 ATS (-28.0 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
    COLORADO is 1-11 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games in December games over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO is 122-130 ATS (-93.2 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    COLORADO is 2-3 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 3-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.6 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN JOSE (17-10-0-4, 38 pts.) at EDMONTON (14-17-0-2, 30 pts.) - 12/18/2017, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN JOSE is 408-324 ATS (-116.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
    SAN JOSE is 91-66 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
    EDMONTON is 5-10 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games first half of the season this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    EDMONTON is 9-6 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 9-6-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-18-2017 at 02:24 PM.

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    NHL Betting Cheat Sheet and Odds: Senators turning things around?
    Monty Andrews

    The Senators dominated the Centennial Classic outdoor game at Lansdowne Park, blanking the Montreal Canadiens 3-0 for their first shutout victory in more than two months.

    We Meet Again

    The Edmonton Oilers had little trouble with the San Jose Sharks when they met in last year's Stanley Cup playoffs. They'll face off Monday in Edmonton for the first time since the Oilers ousted the Sharks in six games in the first round of the postseason. The Oilers have won seven of the previous nine meetings overall, putting them squarely in the driver's seat as they look to save what has been a dismal season so far. Edmonton came into the season as the favorite to come out of the Western Conference, but has since slipped all the way down to +4,000 on Bet365 to win its first championship since 1990.

    Turning Things Around?

    Could the Ottawa Senators finally be headed in the right direction after a month-long stretch of dismal play? Fans and bettors alike will have a much better idea after Tuesday night, when the Senators seek their third consecutive victory against visiting Minnesota. The Senators dominated the Centennial Classic outdoor game at Lansdowne Park, blanking the Montreal Canadiens 3-0 for their first shutout victory in more than two months. Ottawa had lost 12 of 13 prior to its mini-win streak, and will need to string a few more victories together it it hopes to improve its +3,500 odds of winning the competitive Atlantic Division.

    No Rest Needed

    The Detroit Red Wings are fighting to remain playoff relevant as we approach the holiday break, but might find themselves enjoying a unique advantage as they visit Philadelphia on Wednesday in the conclusion of a road back-to-back. The odds certainly won't be in Detroit's favor in this one, but the Red Wings have actually performed well in similar situations, earning five of a possible six points on zero days rest. But the Flyers have the momentum in the head-to-head series, having won five of the last seven encounters. The road team has prevailed in each of the last two meetings.

    Injury News

    * The Anaheim Ducks could be facing a long stretch without winger Corey Perry, who is considered week-to-week with a lower-body injury. The Ducks will miss him greatly, having gone 9-0-5 SU in 14 games in which Perry has recorded at least one point.

    * Roberto Luongo's injury-plagued season continues, as the Florida Panthers netminder was placed on injured reserve last week with a lower-body injury. The Panthers are 6-7-2 SU and 7-8 O/U in Luongo's 15 appearances so far this season.

    * The San Jose Sharks will be without Logan Couture against Edmonton after he suffered a concussion over the weekend. The Sharks will miss having Couture's offense in the lineup - they're 8-2-0 SU in games in which the talented forward scores.

    Player Notes

    * Don't look now, but the New York Islanders have yet another offensive hero - and this month, it's Anders Lee. The veteran forward has seven goals in nine December games; despite his surge, the Isles come into the week just 3-5-1 for the month.

    * Tampa Bay superstar Nikita Kucherov's road scoring prowess will be put to the test this week. Kucherov leads the NHL in road points with 25, but he will be in tough this Tuesday against a host Golden Knights team that is a red-hot 12-2-1 in Las Vegas.

    * Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford has been terrific in December, going 5-0-0 with a 1.37 goals-against average for the month. Chicago has been a strong under play over that span, going 1-4 O/U during Crawford's hot streak.

    Stanley Cup Futures

    * Last year's Stanley Cup final participants come into this week with identical odds to make it a rematch in 2018. Both the defending-champion Pittsburgh Penguins and the Western Conference-champion Nashville Predators are listed at +1,400 on Bet365 to reach the Stanley Cup final yet again.

    * We're well over two months into the 2017-18 campaign, and the expansion Golden Knights are still very much in the Stanley Cup mix - at least from an odds perspective. Oddsmakers at Bet365 have installed Vegas at +2,200 to become the first team in NHL history to win the title as an expansion franchise.

    * Can the Blackhawks recapture some of their magic from earlier this decade? They're facing long odds to do so, coming into the week at +2,800 to win the Stanley Cup for the fourth time since 2010. They're also +1,000 longshots to claim the Central Division, and +1,400 to represent the Western Conference in the final.

    Over/Under Trends

    * The New York Rangers have been one of the top over plays in the league this season at 20-12-1 O/U, but some of the sheen might be wearing off that trend. The Rangers enter the week having gone under the total in three of their previous four games.

    * Anaheim has emerged as a must-have under play so far this season, and Perry's potential long-term absence should only galvanize that trend. The Ducks have gone under in five consecutive games and are an incredible 11-21-1 O/U for the year.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-18-2017 at 02:25 PM.

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