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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/7

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 12/7

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, December 7

    Good Luck on day #340 of 2017!
    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    — Last year in the major leagues, the first-pitch strike %age was 60.3%. In the Japanese major leagues, first-pitch strike %age was only 48.2%.

    — Washington 74, Kansas 65— Mike Hopkins’ first big win with the Huskies.

    — Loyola, Chi 65, Florida 59— Been a rough week for the Gators.

    — Middle Tennessee 66, Vanderbilt 63— Nice win for the Blue Raiders.

    — Last year, 12 SEC teams made bowls; this year, only nine made bowls, and 4 of those 9 are underdogs in their bowl game.

    — RIP Ron Meyer 76, who was Eric Dickerson’s college coach at SMU and went 54-50 as an NFL coach with the Colts/Patriots.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) Stellar trivia item: Villanova basketball coach Jay Wright owns a USFL championship ring from the 1986 Philadelphia Stars, coached by Jim Mora Sr.

    Wright worked in the Stars’ marketing department that season. Think anyone else won a USFL ring and also won a college basketball national title?

    12) Was surprised to learn that new Mets’ manager Mickey Callaway will earn around $800,000 next season. Thats not a lot of cash for a big league skipper.

    In other words, the manager of a major league team in New York City makes less than both of the coordinators of LSU’s football team. Not the head coach, the coordinators.

    11) Basketball coaches at Virginia Commonwealth have this in their contract:

    If the coach bolts VCU for another job, that team has to play a home-and-home series with the Rams, which is why Texas visited VCU Tuesday— LSU will do the same in the near future, since Will Wade skipped town to coach the Bayou Bengals.

    10) 75 days after Hurricane Maria, 215,000 people have already migrated from Puerto Rico to Florida. Wonder how many of them will register to vote, or are already registered?

    9) Former FBI Director James Comey is apparently writing a book on leadership; what do guys like that do when they lose their job? Guess he’ll do a book tour when it is published and we’ll hear a lot more from Mr Comey.

    8) Arena trivia: West Virginia University’s basketball arena opened in 1970; they recently did $26M of improvements on it. Back in 1970, the first event held in the arena was a concert by Grand Funk Railroad. Just thought you’d like to know.

    7) Sports agent Andy Miller lost his certification to be an agent this week, as result of the FBI investigation into corruption in college basketball. Miller represented Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Lowry- Lowry makes around $30M a year.

    Very expensive day- losing Lowry as a client costs Miller’s agency $900,000 a year, and thats just one client.

    6) There is one of those courtroom TV shows, Judge Mathis; apparently, Judge Mathis’ daughter went to Michigan State and worked as a student assistant for the basketball team. Spartans’ hoop coach Tom Izzo was in the “courtroom” for a recent taping and was recognized by the judge, whose daughter is now a lawyer.

    5) Willie Taggart officially signed on to coach Florida State’s football team, meaning that in 2018, the Oregon Ducks will have their third football coach in three years. I’m guessing the next Oregon coach will have a steep buyout clause in their contract. Taggart’s buyout was $4.5M.

    4) Kansas City Chiefs have a big game this week, at home against their rivals from Oakland, but they suspended CB Marcus Peters for the week, after Peters threw a penalty flag into the stands at Swamp Stadium Sunday, as he protested a penalty on a play against the Jets.

    I laughed out loud when Peters threw the flag in the stands; never saw that before, but even Peters thought the move deserved an ejection— he left the field and threw his gloves to a fan in the stands. But it turns out he was never ejected— took the team ten minutes to get Peters back on the sidelines. He returned, but without socks/gloves.

    Chiefs lost six of their last seven games after a 5-0 start; this week’s game is huge for both teams, but Kansas City took a stand and suspended a starter.

    3) UCLA cancelled its basketball game with Montana Wednesday because of the wildfires in the Los Angeles area. Team practices/workouts were also cancelled.

    2) Fact I learned from listening to Bill Walton on the Arizona-Texas A&&M game Tuesday: Arizona is the 6th-largest state in the country, in terms of area. Didn’t know that.

    1) I got an e-mail today, asking to donate to a candidate in the Alabama Senate race— are you bleeping kidding me? I live in upstate New York, I think politicians are gutless weasels- there is a 0% chance I’m giving a politician money. Ever.

    Would much rather go find a homeless person up by the supermarket I go to and give him a few bucks.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, December 7


    LA Lakers @ Philadelphia

    Game 701-702
    December 7, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Lakers
    114.786
    Philadelphia
    118.865
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 4
    226
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 8
    221
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Lakers
    (+8); Over

    Washington @ Phoenix


    Game 703-704
    December 7, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    118.443
    Phoenix
    113.012
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    by 5 1/2
    224
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 7 1/2
    215 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Phoenix
    (+7 1/2); Over

    Oklahoma City @ Brooklyn


    Game 705-706
    December 7, 2017 @ 10:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oklahoma City
    122.310
    Brooklyn
    113.422
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oklahoma City
    by 9
    207
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oklahoma City
    by 7
    215 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oklahoma City
    (-7); Under

    Houston @ Utah


    Game 707-708
    December 7, 2017 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    126.786
    Utah
    117.424
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 9 1/2
    203
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 5
    208 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-5); Under





    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, December 7


    Lakers are 5-3 in last eight games with Philly; road team won seven of last ten series games. Six of their last nine games stayed under total. Lakers lost their last five games; they’re 3-5 vs spread as road underdogs. Six of their last nine games went over the total. 76ers are 7-4 in their last 11 games; they’re 5-4 as home favorites (0-3 in last three). Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

    Wizards won four of last five games with Phoenix; they’re 0-3 vs spread in last three visits to the desert. Under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Devin Booker is out for Suns, a big blow. Washington is 4-6 in its last ten games; they’re 1-1 road favorites. Four of their last five games stayed under total. Phoenix lost six of its last eight games; they’re 3-6 as home underdogs. over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

    Thunder won three of last four games with Brooklyn; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Thunder won last three games, by 4-3-6 points; they’re 0-6 vs spread in last six tries as a home favorite. Five of their last seven games stayed under total. Brooklyn is 4-7 in its last 11 games, 4-2 vs spread as home underdogs. Four of their last five games stayed under total.

    Jazz won four of last six games with Houston; over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Rockets are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Salt Lake City. Houston won its last seven games (5-2 vs spread); they’re 7-2 as road favorites. Five of their last six games stayed under the total. Utah won six of its last seven games; they’re 3-1 as home underdogs. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.




    NBA

    Thursday, December 7


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    Trend Report
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    LA LAKERS @ PHILADELPHIA
    LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home

    WASHINGTON @ PHOENIX
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 16 games
    Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

    OKLAHOMA CITY @ BROOKLYN
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
    Oklahoma City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
    Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games

    HOUSTON @ UTAH
    Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:14 PM.

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    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, December 7


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    LA LAKERS (8 - 15) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 10) - 12/7/2017, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA LAKERS are 37-54 ATS (-22.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 140-107 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
    PHILADELPHIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 39-70 ATS (-38.0 Units) in home games in December games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WASHINGTON (13 - 11) at PHOENIX (9 - 17) - 12/7/2017, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
    PHOENIX is 160-116 ATS (+32.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.
    PHOENIX is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHOENIX is 4-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    WASHINGTON is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OKLAHOMA CITY (11 - 12) vs. BROOKLYN (9 - 14) - 12/7/2017, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in all games this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in the first half of the season this season.
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BROOKLYN is 2-2 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
    OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    HOUSTON (18 - 4) at UTAH (13 - 12) - 12/7/2017, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 112-83 ATS (+20.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    UTAH is 4-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    UTAH is 4-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:15 PM.

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    NBA Betting Roadmap: Is Rudy Gobert's return good for the Jazz?
    Al McMordie

    There has been a lot of belly-aching about the non-competitiveness of the NBA, with the Golden State Warriors being far and away the league's best team. But that seemingly hasn't put a lid on fan interest. Nationally televised games are up 32 percent this season, and viewership is at the highest level since LeBron James' first season with the Miami Heat.

    Of course, it's also possible that the numbers would be even higher if there were teams that could threaten Golden State's supremacy. The NBA, though, never seems to lack storylines, so let's check out what's happening in the Association.

    Spread Watch

    Necessity is sometimes the mother of invention. Would Golden State have been so quick to realize the talent of Draymond Green had David Lee not gotten injured? Likewise, in Utah, it took an injury to star center Rudy Gobert for coach Quin Snyder to move to a spread offense.
    When Gobert was healthy, Snyder played him alongside Derrick Favors and had another non-shooter (Ricky Rubio) at the point. So with a dearth of shooting, the opposing defense could easily guard the paint. When Gobert went down, Snyder moved Favors to the center position, and inserted Jonas Jerebko as a stretch four and the Jazz offense went thru the roof.

    Gobert recently came back but in the 11 games that he missed Utah went 7-4 SU/ATS, including 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five games before he returned. The Jazz also outscored their foes by 19.85 ppg in those last five games. Since Gobert's return, the Jazz have gone 1-1 straight-up, but 2-0 ATS. And Utah's pointspread win streak is now at seven games!

    Will it continue? I'm not overly-optimistic. Coach Snyder has returned to starting Gobert, Favors and Rubio together, which means the defenses can go back to clogging the paint. And the other issue is that, when one really scrutinizes Utah's schedule, it becomes obvious that the offensive success can be partially attributed to the opponents played. Indeed, in Utah's last 13 games, it only played two teams currently ranked among the Top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency (76ers, Thunder). And in those two games against the 76ers and Thunder, the Jazz had their two worst offensive games throughout this 13-game stretch, and scored 86 and 94 points, respectively. In the 11 games vs. the teams that currently rank among the 15 worst defensive teams, the Jazz averaged 112.54 ppg.

    This week, Utah will face Houston at home, on Thursday, and Milwaukee on the road, on Saturday. Given that the Rockets currently rank No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency, don't be surprised if Utah's seven-game ATS win streak gets snapped by James Harden & Co.

    Total Watch

    The Washington Wizards have missed point guard John Wall, who is recovering from a knee injury, for the last six games, and seven of the last nine. Over this stretch Washington has gone 3-4 straight-up, and has also gone 5-2 Under the total. For the season, the Wizards are 16-8 Under the total, including 13-3 their last 16.

    This week, the Wizards will continue to play without their floor leader, and will take on the Phoenix Suns on Thursday, and the Los Angeles Clippers, on Saturday. I look for another relatively low-scoring game vs. the Suns, as 13 of the last 18 meetings between these two clubs have gone Under the number.

    Injury Watch

    The San Antonio Spurs have played the entire season minus their best player, Kawhi Leonard, yet the Spurs are 16-8 straight-up and 12-11-1 ATS. Last season, at this juncture, the Spurs were 19-5 straight-up, and 11-12-1 ATS. So, the fact that they are just three games off last year's pace has to be considered a huge victory for Gregg Popovich's crew.

    The good news is that Leonard should be back this week, as he's been engaged in 5-on-5 drills, which is the final stage of the Spurs' rehabilitation schedule.

    San Antonio has home dates on deck vs. Miami (Wednesday) and Boston (Friday), before traveling to Phoenix, on Saturday, to take on the Suns. Of these games, the match with the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics is the most interesting from a betting standpoint, given that Boston already blew out the Spurs earlier this year, 108-94, in Beantown. So, look for the Spurs to avenge that defeat (with or without Leonard), as San Antonio is 40-26 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a 14-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the year to its opponent.

    Schedule Watch

    Earlier this season, the Dallas Mavericks handed the Milwaukee Bucks a 32-point defeat - Milwaukee's worst loss of the past two seasons. But you know what they say about "Paybacks!"

    Look for the Bucks to avenge that loss this upcoming Friday, in Milwaukee. That's because .633 (or worse) NBA teams, playing with revenge from a 19-point (or worse) upset loss, have gone 86-47-3 ATS as favorites since 2000. Additionally, the Bucks are 11-4-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 2000. Take Milwaukee on Friday.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:16 PM.

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    How the return of Kawhi Leonard impacts the Spurs and NBA bettors
    Ashton Grewal

    Kawhi Leonard, the preseason co-favorite to win this year's MVP award, could make his season debut Friday night for the San Antonio Spurs with the East-leading Boston Celtics in town.

    It was Game 5 of the 2013 NBA Finals, with about two minutes left in the first half, and LeBron James - then with the Miami Heat - was at the free throw line. He missed the first and the horn buzzed signaling a player substitution for the San Antonio Spurs. Kawhi Leonard was checking in for Danny Green and James was not happy to see it.

    That's how the rest of the NBA, outside of Spurs backers, are feeling right now with Leonard expected to make his season debut on Friday when San Antonio hosts the Boston Celtics in the late game of the ESPN NBA doubleheader. Ashton Grewal breaks down what the impact of his return means to the betting landscape.

    Refresher

    The last time bettors saw the corn-rowed one on the floor he was ripping the Warriors to pieces in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, until Golden State center Zaza Pachulia slid under his feet on a closeout and injured Leonard’s ankle in the process.

    The Spurs were winning by 21-points at the time of the injury and Leonard already had 24 points and eight rebounds in the game. San Antonio ended up losing Game 1 by two points and never came close to competing with the Warriors the rest of the series with Leonard out the lineup.

    Gregg Popovich’s team is 16-8 straight up and 12-11 against the spread on the year without Leonard and went 13-6 SU and 8-11 ATS without him the previous two seasons.

    Adjusted Odds

    We received varying opinions on what the spread would look like in Friday’s marquee matchup between the Spurs and Celtics. Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks, predicted the Spurs would be 3-point chalk without Leonard and 9-point faves with him. Jason Simbal, CG Technology vice president of risk, forecasted the Spurs would be favored by two points with Leonard and 1-point home underdogs if they faced the C’s without Kawhi.

    Stoneback thinks Leonard is worth about six points to the spread for the Spurs while Simbal had it at three points.

    As for the NBA futures market, nothing changes here – barring a further setback to Leonard’s health. Vegas knew Leonard would return and priced the Spurs odds to win the NBA championship as if he would be 100 percent by the time the postseason rolled around.

    Last May, the Westgate SuperBook opened San Antonio at +1,000 to win the 2018 NBA championship and the club is now listed at +1,200. That puts the Spurs behind the Golden State Warriors (-250), the Cleveland Cavaliers (+500) and the Houston Rockets (+800).

    If you had told a San Antonio Spurs backer that Kawhi Leonard was going to miss at least the first 25 games of the regular season, that person probably would have thought twice before betting the Over on the Spurs’ season win total. But here we are at the quarter pole of the campaign, the Spurs are on pace to win 55 games (a half game more than their 54.5 season win total) and Leonard hasn’t played a minute yet.

    MVP Chances

    Big things were expected from the 2014 NBA Finals MVP. He was coming off his second All-NBA First Team season and oddsmakers installed him as the preseason, co-favorite with LeBron James to win the 2018 MVP at +400.

    Bad luck for anyone who did take Leonard at that price. His MVP odds have dropped to +2,000, and rightly so. Bill Walton is the only player to miss 20 or more games and still be named regular season MVP of the league. He won the MVP despite playing only 58 regular season games for the 1977-78 Portland Trail Blazers.

    Spurs new rotation

    Leonard’s return would mean a return to the pine for Kyle Anderson, which would be good news for Spurs backers. Anderson has improved as a pro but he’s rotation player at best in the league. San Antonio defense is 4.3 points lower per 100 possessions when Anderson isn’t on the floor. Leonard's on/off court defensive statistics weren't great last year but we all know what the guy can do when defending. Just ask Ben McLemore.

    San Antonio runs post-up action with about 11 percent of its offensive possessions - which is tops in the league. Last year the Spurs were fourth in the league in most frequent post ups with about nine percent of their sets dumping it down on the block. Don't expect more isolation plays with Leonard back in the fold. Popovich's teams over the years are normally always close to the bottom in iso actions per game.

    The Spurs' offensive efficiency should improve as soon as Leonard shakes off the rust. San Antonio averaged 105.3 points per game last year and is at 101.3 per game this season. It might be a wise move to play the Over in the first couple games with Leonard back in the mix.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:17 PM.

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    NBA

    Thursday, December 7



    NBA's Top OVER Teams:

    1. Suns 16-10
    2. Pelicans 14-11
    t3. Warriors 14-12
    t3. Magic 14-12
    5. Hawks 13-10-1

    NBA's Top UNDER Teams:

    1. Blazers 17-7
    2. Grizzlies 16-7-1
    3. Wizards 16-8
    4. Thunder 15-8
    5. Heat 15-9
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:18 PM.

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    NBA

    Thursday, December 7



    Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days of rest. Sixers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days of rest & 41-15 ATS in their last 56 vs. Western Conference.
    Line: 76ers -7.5

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