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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 ( Thur., Dec. 7 - Mon., Dec. 11 )

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 ( Thur., Dec. 7 - Mon., Dec. 11 )

    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, December 7 - Monday, December 11

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Last edited by BettorsChat; 12-09-2017 at 03:32 AM.

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    NFL opening line report: Focus is on the NFC in Week 14 with several key matchups
    Patrick Everson

    "We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later."

    Without question, the best Week 14 NFL games are in the NFC, as the playoff picture continues to evolve. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a handful of matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

    New Orleans had a one-game hiccup, then got right back to its winning ways and now stands atop the NFC South. The Saints (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw their eight-game win streak end in Week 12 at the Los Angeles Rams, but came home Sunday and beat Carolina 31-21 as a 5.5-point chalk.

    Defending NFC champion Atlanta is making things tough for itself to even get back to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a nice little three-game SU and ATS win streak, then had a dismal offensive showing and lost at home to Minnesota 14-9 as a 2-point favorite in Week 13.

    “Our team was anywhere from a pick ‘em to -3 for this matchup,” Cooley said. “The deuce felt like a fair number. We can see where the bettors are leaning early and adjust from there. We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later.”

    Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+1)

    Minnesota just keeps on rolling behind a top-notch defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game. On Sunday, the Vikings (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went to Atlanta as a 2-point underdog and won a defensive slog 14-9.

    Carolina (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won and cashed four straight heading into Sunday’s showdown with New Orleans. But the Panthers couldn’t keep it going, losing 31-21 catching 5.5 points.

    “No matter how many wins, the Vikings don’t get any love from the general betting public,” Cooley said. “Sharps were on them again (against the Saints), and likely will be here, but the squares aren’t hopping aboard, so these spreads are kept somewhat at bay. Of course, you have to think Minnesota is going to stumble at some point.”

    Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

    Philadelphia has been the class of the NFC this season, but its impressive winning streak of nine games SU and eight games ATS finally ended Sunday night. The Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went off as 3.5-point road chalk against Seattle and lost outright, 24-10.

    Los Angeles is red-hot of late, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven outings. The NFC West-leading Rams (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) doubled up Arizona 32-16 giving 7.5 points on the road Sunday.

    With Philly having played in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu won’t post the line on this game until Monday.

    “Depending on how Sunday night plays out, we could make this anywhere from a pick to L.A. a small ‘dog,” Cooley said. “If the latter happens, the Rams feel like a very live ‘dog at home. Despite the two prolific offenses, I expect to see sharp players on the under.”

    Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

    Kansas City started the season 5-0 SU and ATS and was 6-2 SU and ATS through eight weeks. The Chiefs (6-6 SU and ATS) haven’t won since then, dumping four in a row to fall into a three-way logjam atop the AFC West with Oakland and San Diego. On Sunday, K.C. blew a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and ultimately lost to the New York Jets 38-31 as a 4-point road fave.

    Oakland has also played far below expectations this season, but has won three of its last four (1-2-1 ATS). In Week 13, the Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) held off the New York Giants 24-17 giving 10 points at home.

    “Early action from the pros has been on Oakland, which prompted a 1-point move. They really don’t like this K.C. squad right now, and it’s obvious why,” Cooley said of sharp Raiders action forcing Bookmaker down to K.C. -3.5. “That said, you know this losing streak is going to end soon, and this is a season-defining type of game for the Chiefs. Expect their best effort here.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:32 PM.

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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14
    Monty Andrews

    Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 47.5)

    Raiders' ragged secondary vs. Chiefs' elite ball security

    The AFC West is officially the craziest division in the NFL, with three teams tied for the division lead as we enter the final four weeks of the regular season. This week's encounter between the streaking Raiders and the tumbling Chiefs will have a significant impact on how the final standings play out - and despite Kansas City having squandered what was a comfortable lead just a month ago, it has a sizeable edge in this one when it comes to retaining possession on offense.

    The Oakland pass defense is a major reason why the Raiders are sitting at .500 through 13 weeks rather than leading the division by several games. By any measure, Oakland has struggled mightily to contain opposing signal callers, surrendering 20 pass touchdowns with just one interception; only one other team, the Atlanta Falcons (three), have fewer than five INTs. In addition, Oakland's 108.2 passer rating against is easily the worst in football.

    Despite Kansas City's recent struggles, don't expect the Raiders secondary to suddenly look like world beaters against Alex Smith. The Chiefs have perennially been one of the lowest-turnover offenses in football with Smith at the helm, and 2017 is no exception - Kansas City has thrown just six interceptions, tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. Look for Smith to pick apart Oakland's pass defense, which should at least give the Chiefs a fighting chance of ending their four-game losing skid.

    Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 40.5)

    Packers' red-zone proficiency vs. Browns' broken defense

    No Aaron Rodgers? No problem - okay, several problems, but not as many as fans and bettors thought after the Packers lost their franchise quarterback to a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay evened its record at 6-6 with an impressive 26-20 overtime win over Tampa Bay, and with Rodgers due back later this month, a postseason spot remains in play. The Packers will look to improve their chances this week by exploiting a major edge in red-zone play against winless Cleveland.

    If there is one area where Green Bay has remained as potent as ever, it is in turning red-zone opportunities into six points. The Packers come into Week 14 with a success rate of nearly 65 percent inside the opponents' 20-yard line, the third-best rate in the league. That red-zone proficiency was on full display in last week's victory over the Buccaneers, when Aaron Jones ran in his only carry from the Tampa Bay 20-yard line to give the Packers a critical victory.

    The Browns have been halfway decent at limiting opponent yardage (327.2, 10th in NFL), but are lagging behind in just about every other defensive metric. That includes red-zone points against, with Cleveland having allowed a touchdown on 68.6 percent of foes' trips inside their 20 - the second-worst rate in the NFL. The Browns' chances of earning win No. 1 will likely hinge on their ability to hold Green Bay to field goals - and if that's the case, bettors shouldn't hold their breath.

    San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3, 43)

    49ers' third-down troubles vs. Texans' punt-forcing prowess

    A two-game losing skid and a date with a suddenly improving San Francisco team has the host Texans staring at a minuscule edge in the Vegas line this weekend. Yet, despite having lost four of its past five games to guarantee a non-winning season, Houston is still in good position heading into Week 14. Not only have the Texans prevailed in two of their previous three home games, but they have been a force on third downs - and the 49ers, for lack of a more eloquent turn of phrase, have not.

    Perhaps the switch at quarterback from C.J. Beathard to Jimmy Garoppolo will mean great things for the 49ers on third down - after all, they went a stunning 10-for-18 in such situations in Garoppolo's first start in the red and gold. But one game is just that - and if you look at the season, San Francisco is still converting just 36.3 percent of third downs, good for 26th out of 32 teams. And getting to third down 18 times against the Texans probably won't turn out nearly as well for Garoppolo and the visitors.

    Only five teams have been stingier on third down than the Texans, who have forced a punt or fourth-down try on 65.9 percent of opponent opportunities. Houston has been even tighter over the previous three games, allowing teams to extend drives or score on just 31.4 percent of third-down chances. And with opponents converting just 32.4 percent of their third-down opportunities at NRG Stadium, it could be a long afternoon for Garoppolo and the rest of the San Francisco offense.

    Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44)

    Ravens' ball-hawking skills vs. Big Ben's interception troubles

    The Ravens still have a shot at the NFC North title - albeit a small one - as they prepare to visit Ben Roethlisberger and the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Baltimore did its part to remain in the hunt with a 44-20 drubbing of the Detroit Lions - its third consecutive victory - and will be looking to atone for a 26-9 loss to the Steelers in their previous meeting Oct. 1. Even though Heinz Field is Big Ben's personal playground, the Ravens have the secondary to make life miserable for him.

    The Ravens continue to lead the NFL in interceptions with 20 - four more than the runner-up Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars. And while it's fair to note that eight of those picks came in Baltimore's first two games - specifically, four each against the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns - the Ravens are still a top-six interception unit even if they hadn't recorded an INT in either of those contests. Opponents throw a pick on 5.14 percent of passing plays vs. Baltimore.

    Roethlisberger escaped with just one interception in the Steelers' Week 4 triumph in Baltimore, but that was largely because his team ran the ball an unbelievable 42 times in the victory. Pittsburgh passers - yes, plural, thanks to Robert Golden's 44-yard completion in a Week 7 win over Cincinnati - come into this weekend with (12) interceptions, the seventh-most of any team. And with the Ravens looking to make up for their earlier loss, Pittsburgh might want to fire up 35 more carries for Le'Veon Bell.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:33 PM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 14


    Thursday, December 7

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    NEW ORLEANS (9 - 3) at ATLANTA (7 - 5) - 12/7/2017, 8:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, December 10

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    DETROIT (6 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 8) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CHICAGO (3 - 9) at CINCINNATI (5 - 7) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 9) at BUFFALO (6 - 6) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    SEATTLE (8 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (8 - 4) - 12/10/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SEATTLE is 67-37 ATS (+26.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
    JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
    JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    OAKLAND (6 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 6) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 33-59 ATS (-31.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 32-56 ATS (-29.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MINNESOTA (10 - 2) at CAROLINA (8 - 4) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 112-83 ATS (+20.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    CAROLINA is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
    MINNESOTA is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    GREEN BAY (6 - 6) at CLEVELAND (0 - 12) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 186-131 ATS (+41.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 66-38 ATS (+24.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    CLEVELAND is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
    CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
    CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 10) at HOUSTON (4 - 8) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    WASHINGTON (5 - 7) at LA CHARGERS (6 - 6) - 12/10/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NY JETS (5 - 7) at DENVER (3 - 9) - 12/10/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY JETS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
    DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
    DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
    DENVER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
    DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
    DENVER is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    TENNESSEE (8 - 4) at ARIZONA (5 - 7) - 12/10/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
    ARIZONA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
    ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    PHILADELPHIA (10 - 2) at LA RAMS (9 - 3) - 12/10/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
    LA RAMS is 183-228 ATS (-67.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 183-228 ATS (-67.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 131-180 ATS (-67.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 142-180 ATS (-56.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 62-93 ATS (-40.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    DALLAS (6 - 6) at NY GIANTS (2 - 10) - 12/10/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DALLAS is 37-60 ATS (-29.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BALTIMORE (7 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 2) - 12/10/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 104-74 ATS (+22.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday, December 11

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    NEW ENGLAND (10 - 2) at MIAMI (5 - 7) - 12/11/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 62-39 ATS (+19.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
    MIAMI is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:34 PM.

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    NFL

    Week 14


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, December 7

    NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA
    New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta's last 17 games at home


    Sunday, December 10

    SAN FRANCISCO @ HOUSTON
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
    San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
    Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

    OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Oakland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

    INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 14 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

    MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA
    Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    CHICAGO @ CINCINNATI
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
    Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games

    GREEN BAY @ CLEVELAND
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 11 games at home
    Cleveland is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games at home

    DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY
    Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

    DALLAS @ NY GIANTS
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 22 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games

    WASHINGTON @ LA CHARGERS
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
    LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

    TENNESSEE @ ARIZONA
    Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games at home

    NY JETS @ DENVER
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
    Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets

    SEATTLE @ JACKSONVILLE
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games

    PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS
    Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
    Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

    BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
    Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


    Monday, December 11

    NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 11 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:35 PM.

  6. #6
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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 14


    Thursday's game
    Saints (9-3) @ Falcons (7-5)— New Orleans took over top spot in NFC South with win over Carolina LW; Saints won nine of last 10 games, are 3-2 in true road games, losing to Vikings, Rams. In its last five games, NO has run ball for 176 yds/game, taking heat off of Brees. Atlanta had 3-game win streak snapped by Vikings LW; Falcons are 7-0 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they score 17 or less. These rivals split last eight meetings; they meet again in two weeks in Superdome. Saints are 5-3 in last eight visits to Atlanta. Home teams are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Saint games went over total; under is 7-2 in Atlanta’s last nine games.

    Sunday's games
    Lions (6-6) @ Buccaneers (4-8)— Stafford hurt his hand late in loss to Ravens LW; check status. Untested Iowa alum Rudock is his backup. Lions allowed 74 points in losing last two games (turnover ratio of -5); they’re 4-2 on road, losing by 14 in Superdome, 24 in Baltimore. Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight games; they got QB Winston back last week, and are 3-2 at home, losing 19-14 to Patriots, 17-3 to Carolina. Detroit won three of last four series games, winning 27-20/23-20ot in last two visits here, with last visit here in ’11. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 7-10 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 7-6. Last five Detroit games went over total; four of Buccaneers’ five home games stayed under.

    Bears (3-9) @ Bengals (5-7)— Last week, Bears were first team in NFL history to run a punt back for a TD, not allow a TD, win turnover battle and still lose the game. Last two weeks combined, Bears have run 85 plays for 287 yards- not good. Short week for Bengals after blowing 17-0 lead in Monday night loss to hated Steelers. Since 2005, Cincy is 5-9-1 vs spread in game the week following loss to Pittsburgh. Bengals covered their last four games; they’re 3-3 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorites. Chicago lost its last five gamesBengals won four of last six series games; teams split four meetings played here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 6-6. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Bengal games.

    Colts (3-9) @ Bills (6-6)— Bills QB Taylor hurt his knee LW, would be replaced here by rookie Peterman who threw five picks in one dreadful half vs Chargers in his only NFL start. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-0-1 as home favorites. Indy lost six of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with only win 20-14 (+7) in Houston. Colts won seven of last nine series games, but most of that was in Manning era for Colts; Indy lost 30-7/27-14 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Bills are -8 in turnovers their last five games; they were +14 in their first seven. Last four Indy games stayed under the total.

    Seahawks (8-4) @ Jaguars (8-4)— Seahawks won seven of their last nine games; they won last four road games, after losing first two- Seattle is 1-2 as road underdogs. Jacksonville won five of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Titans/Rams. Jaguars allowed 23+ points in their four losses; they’re 8-0 when they allow 17 or less. Seahawks scored 22+ points in six of their last seven games. Seattle is 5-2 against the Jaguars; home side won last four series games. Teams split four games played here. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-4-1. Under is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight games, 5-1 in Jaguars’ last six.

    Raiders (6-6) @ Chiefs (6-6)— Teams are in 3-way tie with Chargers atop AFC West. Chiefs lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start; KC is 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-8 points, losing to Steelers/Bills. Chiefs have only one takeaway (-4) in their last four games. Raiders won three of last four games; they’re 2-3 in true road games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-6-20 points, with wins in Nashville, Miami. Chiefs (-3) lost 31-30 in Oakland in Week 7; Raiders gained 505 yards, threw for 417 as they snapped 5-game series skid. Oakland lost its last four games in Arrowhead, by 17-18-6-8 points. Last three Raider games stayed under total, as did three of last four Chief games. KC is 0-4 in games decided by less than 7 points.

    Vikings (10-2) @ Panthers (8-4)— Minnesota is on road for third week in a row; they won their last eight games, covered last seven. Vikings are 4-1 in true road games, with only loss 26-9 in Pittsburgh. In their last four games, Minnesota is 27-51 (52.9%) on 3rd down, their opponents 12-46 (26.1%). Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Saints, Eagles, winning by 6-3-24 points. Panthers are 8-4 despite a -7 turnover ratio; they have only 11 takeaways. Carolina scored 11 TD’s on its last 30 drives; eight of them were 75+ yard drives. Vikings won three of last four series games; they won 22-10 in Charlotte LY. Four of last six Viking games went over the total, as have last three Carolina games.

    Packers (6-6) @ Browns (0-12)— Winless Cleveland is 3-9 vs spread, 2-3 at home, losing games on Lake Erie by 3-24-3-3-12 points. Browns are -20 in turnovers because in part because Kizer isn’t an NFL-caliber QB; in their last nine games, Cleveland scored 63 points on 21 red zone drives, which is really poor. Green Bay lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-3 on road, 0-1 as road favorite. Packers have been outscored in 2nd half in six of last seven games. Green Bay is 3-1 against the Browns, winning by 23-28-18 points, winning 31-3 in its last visit here, in ’09. All five Cleveland home games stayed under the total; four of last five Packer games went over. Last two weeks, Green Bay opponents converted 17 of 29 third down plays.

    49ers (2-10) @ Texans (4-8)— 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start LW, despite not scoring a TD; they were first team in NFL history to allow punt return for a TD, not score a TD, lose turnover battle and still win the game. Niners won two of last three games; they’re 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-3-2-23 points, with win in Chicago. Texans lost five of their last six games; they’re 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 43-16-10 points. In their last three games, Houston lost field position by 13-13-14 yards; they haven’t led at halftime since Watson got hurt. Home side won all three series games; 49ers lost 24-21 in last visits here, in ’09. Despite their win last week, Niners had no TD’s (five FG’s) in five red zone drives.

    Redskins (5-7) @ Chargers (6-6)— Chargers are 6-2 in last eight games, winning last three, by 30-22-9 points- they were +10 in turnovers in those games. Bolts won last three home games after losing first three- they’re 1-2 as home favorites. Redskins lost five of last seven games; they are 2-4 on road, beating Rams/Seattle, losing by 9-10-3-24 points. Washington is 7-3 against the Chargers; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points or in OT. Teams split four series games that were played in California. Over is 6-2 in last eight Washington games; six of last seven Charger games stayed under. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 against the spread; AFC West home favorites are 4-9 vs spread.

    Jets (5-7) @ Broncos (3-9)— Denver is horrible, losing last eight games (0-8 vs spread); their offense was outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense last week. Broncos are 1-4 vs spread as a dog this year- they lost last three home games, by 13-25-3 points. In its last six games, Denver lost field position by 11+ yards five times. Jets lost five of their last seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG in Cleveland. Jets are 3-1 when allowing 20 or less points. 2-6 if they allow more than 20. Denver won four of last five series games; this is Jets’ first visit here since 2011. Four of last six Denver games went over the total, as did three of last four Jet games. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread, 6-5 on the road.

    Titans (8-4) @ Cardinals (5-7)— Tennessee won six of its last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 4 or less points. Titans are 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-4 if they score less than 20. Arizona was outscored 55-24 in 2nd half of its last three games; they’re at home for 3rd week in row. Cardinals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 at home, 2-2-1 as home underdogs. Arizona leads series 6-4; they won last meeting in OT in Nashville in 2013- this is Titans’ first visit to the desert since ’05. Over is 7-4 in Titans’ last 11 games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three. Tennessee outscored its last two opponents 28-6 in 2nd half; in their last six games, Titans allowed an average of only 66.5 rushing yards/game.

    Eagles (10-2) @ Rams (9-3)— Eagles have 4-game lead with four weeks left; Rams lead by game in NFC West, and visit Seattle next week. Philly had 9-game win streak snapped LW; Eagles are 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs. Iggles turned ball over five times in last two games, after turning it over only five times in previous seven games. Last week was first time since Week 1 that Philly ran for less than 100 yards. Rams won six of their last seven games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites. LA won field position battle in last seven games; they’re only 9-36 on 3rd down in last three games. Eagles won last four series games; last meeting was in ’14. Rams’ last win was in ’04. Four of last five Eagle games stayed under, as did three of Rams’ last four games.

    Cowboys (6-6) @ Giants (2-10)— McAdoo is gone, Manning is back at QB for Giants team that is 1-4 at home, with only win 12-9 in OT over the Chiefs. New York is 1-4 as home underdogs this season. In their last three games, Giants are 10-41 on 3rd down. Cowboys had extra prep time after playing on Thursday LW; they’ve lost three of last four games, are 3-2 on road, losing in Denver, Atlanta, both by 20+ points. Cowboys are 5-3 vs spread as favorites this year, 3-1 on road. Dallas (-4) beat the Giants 19-3 at home in season opener; outrushing them 129-35, winning despite scoring only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Cowboys are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost 27-20/10-7 in last two visits here.

    Ravens (7-5) @ Steelers (10-2)— Shazier/Smith-Schuster are both out for Steelers, after tough win in Cincy Monday night. Steelers won their last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 5 or less points. Pitt is 4-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites. Ravens won four of last five games, allowing 11.8 ppg; they’re 2-1-1 as road underdogs. Pitt (-3) spanked Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore in Week 4, running ball for 172 yards; Baltimore turned ball over three times (-2), averaged 3.9 ypp. Ravens are +20 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in losses- they have 11 takeaways in their last three games. Baltimore won four of last five series games; they won two of last three visits here, with an OT win, playoff win. Over is 2-0-1 in last three Steeler games, 7-1 in Ravens’ last eight.

    Monday's game
    Patriots (10-2) @ Dolphins (5-7)— New England (-16) spanked Miami 35-17 two weeks ago in Foxboro, running ball for 196 yards, outgaining Fish 417-221- it was Patriots’ 5th win in last six series games. NE actually lost three of last four visits to Miami. Patriots won their last eight games, covered their last six; they’re 4-1 as road favorite this year, with only non-cover a 24-17 win at the Jets. Miami snapped a 5-game skid LW; Dolphins are 3-2 at home, losing to Bucs by 10, Raiders by 3- they’re 1-0-1 as home underdogs. Six of last eight Patriot games stayed under; last six Miami games went over. New England ran ball for 196-191 yards last two weeks; they held last three opponents under 5.0 ypa. Pats’ TE Gronkowski is suspended for this game.

    2017 week-by-week results
    HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
    1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
    2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
    3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
    4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
    5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
    6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
    7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
    8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
    9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
    10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
    11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2
    12) 7-2-1 1-5 8-8 2-2
    13) 1-0 1-0

    T) 54-52-2 27-32-2 85-89-2 26-15N
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:36 PM.

  7. #7
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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 14

    Thursday, December 7


    New Orleans @ Atlanta

    Game 101-102
    December 7, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    142.767
    Atlanta
    138.311
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4 1/2
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 2
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (+2); Over


    Sunday, December 10

    Detroit @ Tampa Bay

    Game 105-106
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    130.415
    Tampa Bay
    131.446
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 1
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tampa Bay
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    N/A

    Chicago @ Cincinnati


    Game 107-108
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    127.650
    Cincinnati
    136.908
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 9 1/2
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 5 1/2
    37 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (-5 1/2); Under

    Indianapolis @ Buffalo


    Game 109-110
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    125.223
    Buffalo
    132.786
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Buffalo
    by 7 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Buffalo
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    N/A

    Seattle @ Jacksonville


    Game 111-112
    December 10, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    139.476
    Jacksonville
    138.642
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 1
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 3 1/2
    39 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (+3 1/2); Over

    Oakland @ Kansas City


    Game 113-114
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    131.558
    Kansas City
    130.226
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oakland
    by 1 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 4 1/2
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (+4 1/2); Over

    Minnesota @ Carolina


    Game 115-116
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    141.224
    Carolina
    136.786
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 4 1/2
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 1
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-1); Under

    Green Bay @ Cleveland


    Game 117-118
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    132.655
    Cleveland
    125.519
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 7
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 3 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-3 1/2); Under

    San Francisco @ Houston


    Game 119-120
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    130.332
    Houston
    129.498
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 1
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 3
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+3); Under

    Washington @ LA Chargers


    Game 121-122
    December 10, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    134.238
    LA Chargers
    137.698
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 3 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 7
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+7); Over

    NY Jets @ Denver


    Game 123-124
    December 10, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    123.410
    Denver
    127.227
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 4
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 1
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-1); Under

    Tennessee @ Arizona


    Game 125-126
    December 10, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    136.312
    Arizona
    131.224
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 5
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 3
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (-3); Under

    Philadelphia @ LA Rams


    Game 127-128
    December 10, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    137.247
    LA Rams
    140.685
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 3 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 1
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-1); Under

    Dallas @ NY Giants


    Game 129-130
    December 10, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    134.776
    NY Giants
    127.213
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 7 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 4
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (-4); Over

    Baltimore @ Pittsburgh


    Game 131-132
    December 10, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    137.221
    Pittsburgh
    140.309
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 6
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (+6); Over



    Monday, December 11

    New England @ Miami

    Game 133-134
    December 11, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    137.422
    Miami
    129.308
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 8
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 12
    48
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (+12); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:37 PM.

  8. #8
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    NFL

    Wednesday, December 6



    CB Marcus Peters has been suspended by the team for one game for trying out for the Olympic flag tossing team and leaving the sidelines and going to the locker room during Week 13's game @ Jets. He will miss Sunday's contest vs Raiders.
    Line: Chiefs -4

  9. #9
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    Default

    NFL

    Thursday, December 7


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Saints at Falcons
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+1, 51.5)

    The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons will get to know each other quite well over the next 2 1/2 weeks as the NFC South rivals play the first of their two meetings in that stretch on Thursday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. First-place New Orleans posted its ninth win in 10 outings with a 31-21 victory over Carolina last week, although the Falcons control their own destiny with four games remaining versus division foes.

    "I like where we're at, but I feel like we can continue to get better," said New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who has thrown for an NFL third-best 3,298 yards. "There's still things I feel like we're leaving out there, opportunities that we're leaving out there, that if we want to accomplish and go where we want to go, then we've got to continue to improve upon and get better at those things." Running backs Mark Ingram (NFL-best nine rushing TDs) and rookie Alvin Kamara haven't been wasting many opportunities, as the duo has combined for at least 200 scrimmage yards in five consecutive games - totaling 1,243 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns. Impressive statistics to be certain, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons had the Saints' number last year as the reigning NFL MVP completed 47 of 66 passes for 571 yards with six touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 127.8 in the season sweep last season. "Everything we want is still in front of us," Ryan said of the Falcons, who reside on the outside looking in of the NFC playoff picture.

    TV:
    8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Saints (-4) - Falcons (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -0.5.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Falcons opened as two-point home favorites but heavy action on the Saints has caused that number to jump the fence, with New Orleans now giving one point. The total hit betting boards at 55 and has dropped significantly down to 51.5

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "Huge NFC South division battle Thursday night in Atlanta finds the floundering Falcons taking on the sizzling Saints in what should be a playoff atmosphere. With New Orleans 0-5 UNDER on Thursdays and 1-4 UNDER after facing the Panthers, and Atlanta 0-3 UNDER after facing the Vikings and 1-4 UNDER after scoring less than 10 points in its last game, look for a snoozer tonight." - Marc Lawrence.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    Dome.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Saints - LB A.J. Klein (Probable, Groin), RB Mark Ingram (Probable, Toe), T Terron Armstead (Probable, Thigh), CB Marshon Lattimore (Questionable, Ankle), S Marcus Williams (Questionable, Groin), DE Trey Hendrickson (Questionable, Knee), CB P.J. Williams (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Ken Crawley (Questionable, Abdominal), T Andrus Peat (Out, Groin), NT David Parry (I-R, Ankle), DL Mitchell Loewen (I-R, Ankle), TE Coby Fleener (I-R, Concussion), T Zach Strief (I-R, Knee), DE Alex Okafor (I-R, Achilles), RB Daniel Lasco (I-R, Spine), CB Delvin Breaux (I-R, Leg), LB Alex Anzalone (I-R, Shoulder), LB Nathan Stupar (I-R, Knee), FB John Kuhn (I-R, Bicep), LS Jon Dorenbos (I-R, Heart), TE Clay Harbor (I-R, Undisclosed), DT Devaroe Lawrence (I-R, Knee), WR Dan Arnold (I-R, Undisclosed), DT Nick Fairley (I-R, Heart).

    Falcons - CB Brian Poole (Probable, Back), CB Desmond Trufant (Probable, Concussion), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), TE Eric Saubert (Out, Back), G Andy Levitre (Out, Tricep), S Quincy Mauger (Out, Knee), LB Jordan Tripp (Out, Concussion), DE Jack Crawford (I-R, Bicep).

    ABOUT THE SAINTS (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O/U):
    While New Orleans' high-octane offense has produced consistent headlines over the years, the team's defense has made vast improvements in 2017 - permitting only 17.9 points in the last 10 games. NFC Defensive Player of the Month for November Cam Jordan has registered 10.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss this season and has eight sacks, a forced fumble and fumble recovery in his last nine encounters with Atlanta. Rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has made progress from an ankle injury that sidelined him for the past two games, could be in line to guard wideout Julio Jones on Thursday.

    ABOUT THE FALCONS (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U):
    Atlanta boasts a potent pair of running backs in its own right in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, with the former faring well with 12 carries for 74 yards in his return from a concussion in a 14-9 loss to Minnesota on Sunday. Coleman has recorded five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in his past five games overall and four (three rushing, one receiving) in his past two against New Orleans. Jones (NFC-best 1,063 receiving yards) was limited to two catches for 24 yards versus the Vikings, but has 361 receiving yards and a touchdown in his past three homes games versus the Saints.

    TRENDS:


    * Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
    * Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
    * Over is 6-0 in Saints' last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
    * Over is 6-1-1 in Falcons' last 8 vs. NFC South.
    * Underdog is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the Saints on the road at a rate of 61 percent and the Over is getting 66 percent of the totals action


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-07-2017 at 02:40 PM.

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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks in Week 14 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) San Francisco 49ers +3 (572)

    5) Baltimore Ravens +5 (583)

    4) Green Bay Packers -3 (619)

    3) Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (700)

    2) Minnesota Vikings, -2.5 (757)

    1) Philadelphia Eagles, +2 (782)

    Record of top 6 picks each week: 38-40

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    Essential Week 14 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

    Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown averages just 5.5 catches and 62 receiving yards with just three total touchdowns in his 14 career games against the Baltimore Ravens.

    Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38.5)

    The Bengals became only the third team leading by 10 or more points entering the fourth quarter to lose a game outright. NFL teams taking a 10-point or greater lead into the final frame are still 87-3 on the season.

    Having trouble putting up points on the board in the second half isn’t a new problem for the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 30th in third quarter scoring (2.5 points) and 31st in fourth quarter scoring (3.4 points).

    LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Bengals favored by six points although a few spots in Vegas went with 5.5 instead. The spread seems to be holding at 6.5 at most locations. The total opened at 37 and has been bet up to 38.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
    *The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

    Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 40.5)

    The Vikings’ stopper unit ranks second in scoring defense and total defense after its smothering of the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. Julio Jones caught just two passes for 24 yards a week after hauling in 12 catches for 253 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan totaled his fewest passing yards in a game (173) since 2013 and the Vikings kept the Falcons from hitting double digits.

    Minnesota’s offense isn’t as prolific but the unit is being efficient with its scoring opportunities. The Vikings have scored touchdowns in 14 of their last 15 trips inside the red zone.

    LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Vikings listed as 1-point away faves and the line has crept up to a 3-point spread at many shops. The total opened as high as 42 and has moved down to 40.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
    *The over is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games.

    San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 44.5)

    It’s not a huge sample but Jimmy Garoppolo improved to 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the three games he’s started as a pro quarterback in the NFL. He would have started against the Texans last season as a member of the Patriots but picked up an injury the previous week against Dolphins. He would have studied the Pats’ game plan for attacking Houston’s defense. That might help him in his preparation for this weekend’s game.

    LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as a 1.5-point home fave and has been bet up to 3-point chalk. The total has also moved up from 42.5 to 44.

    TRENDS:

    *The under is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five games.
    *The over is 4-1 in the Texans’ last five home games.

    Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 40.5)

    The Browns front-office shakeup shouldn’t affect much on the field – only that head coach Hue Jackson now knows he’s not coaching for his job the rest of the season. Cleveland Browns owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam assured the media Jackson would be the team’s head coach in 2018 despite his abysmal win-loss record (1-27) over the past two years.

    LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as large as 4-point favorites but the spread has dropped in favor of the home team. The total opened at 41 and has come down to 40 at some locations.

    TRENDS:

    *The Browns are 6-21-1 ATS under head coach Hue Jackson.
    *The over is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine road games.

    Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 48.5)

    The Chiefs will not have their top cornerback for an important interdivision game against the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City suspended DB Marcus Peters for his late-game antics when he tossed a flag thrown by a game official into the stands.

    The Chiefs own one of the worst pass defenses in the league and their second cornerback, Darrelle Revis, was a street free agent a few weeks ago. The Raiders accumulated 417 passing yards in their home win against KC earlier this season.

    LINE HISTORY: This spread is kind of in no-man’s land. Offshore and Vegas sportsbooks all opened above the key number (3) but some went high (4.5) and others went low (3.5). The spread is still hopping between 3.5 and 4.5, and it’s hard to tell whether the steam is moving the line up or down.

    TRENDS:

    *The Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
    *The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
    *The under is 18-7 in the last 25 matchups between these two sides.

    Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 44)

    Arizona’s offense is struggling finding reliable receiving targets outside of future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. The 34-year-old leads the Cards in catches with 82 – which is five more than the rest of the team’s receivers combined. Game planning to slow down a passing attack becomes much easier for opposing teams when there’s only one pass-catching threat on the field.

    LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 3-point away faves and the spread hasn’t moved since. The total opened at 44 and has moved down a half or full point depending on where the book.

    TRENDS:

    *The Titans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.
    *The Cards are 5-15-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

    Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 41.5)

    Cowboys QB Dak Prescott didn’t seem to be bothered by the hand he injured last Thursday against the Redskins. More good news for Dallas backers: Linebacker Sean Lee is expected to his return on Sunday after missing the last three games with a sore hamstring. The Cowboys are 18-4 straight up and 15-7 ATS in the last 22 games he’s suited up and played.

    LINE HISTORY: Books opened with the Giants getting six points when it was still thought Geno Smith would be under center for New York. The spread shrunk by 2.5 points once Eli Manning was renamed the starting quarterback.

    TRENDS:

    *The under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.
    *The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

    New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+1.5, 41.5)

    The Broncos can’t make up their mind as to who their starting quarterback should be moving forward and it’s easy to tell why they are so confused. Denver is second last in pass completion percentage (57.5), third last in yards per attempt (5.7) and second last in interceptions thrown per game (1.5).

    LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 1-point faves but the line flipped to Jets -1. The total opened at 40.5 and moved up to 41.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
    *The Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.

    Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 46.5)

    The Chargers opened the season 0-4 and were as large as 50/1 longshots to win the AFC West after Week 4. But thanks to the Bolts’ 6-2 bounce back and the Chiefs’ collapse they’re now +150 to win their division. LA plays at KC next Saturday in a game that could decision who wins the AFC West.

    LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Chargers installed as 6.5-point home chalk and the spread has come down a half point at most shops.

    TRENDS:

    *The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
    *The over is 25-8 in Washington’s last 33 games.

    Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40)

    The Seahawks are the most penalized team in the league this season with a good chunk of those flags coming by way of offensive holding (19) and false starts (18). The Jags own the league’s best pass rush 45 sacks despite blitzing on only 17.9 percent of their defensive snaps according to the Florida Times-Union.

    LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 3-point home faves but have dropped down a half point to 2.5. The total opened 39 and has gone as high as 40.

    TRENDS:

    *The Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games.
    *The under is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six games.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 48)

    The Rams had to alter their practice schedule this week because of the wildfires in surrounding areas. The wind blew smoke in the direction of the Rams’ practice facility on Wednesday forcing the team to do a light walkthrough at a gym on Cal Lutheran University’s campus.

    “This time of the year, it actually served us well,” Rams coach Sean McVay told reporters. “We got a lot of good work in, got more reps than we would’ve otherwise than when you just do your walk-through and your normal practice.”

    LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 1-point faves and many books now list them as 2-point chalk. The total opened as high as 51 and has moved down three points to 48.

    TRENDS:

    *The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
    *The over is 14-4 in the Eagles’ last 18 road games.

    Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)

    The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against the Steelers. Keeping All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown in check is a big reason why Baltimore fares so well against its division rival.
    Brown is averaging just 5.5 catches for 62 yards in 14 career games against the Ravens – and he’s only found pay dirt three times against the Ravens. That being said, Baltimore will not have its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith, on the field on Sunday because of a PED suspension and an injury.

    LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 6-point faves but the line dropped to 4.5. The total seems to be settling around 43 and 43.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 AFC North games.
    *The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-10-2017 at 12:59 PM.

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    NFL

    Sunday, December 10


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Ravens at Steelers
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)

    After rallying for a dramatic win to knock off one bitter division rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers return home to face another when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Winners of seven in a row, the Steelers can maintain their tenuous grip on the No. 1 seed in the AFC and wrap up the AFC North Division title with a victory.

    Pittsburgh will be without a key player on both sides of the ball -- injured linebacker Ryan Shazier and suspended wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster -- as it vies for a season sweep of the Ravens. "We embrace the challenges of playing in this division -- how tough it is and the intentions of those we compete against," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "We'll be energized by game time on Sunday. We'll be excited about defending our turf against a very good football team." Baltimore, which was dominated at home by Pittsburgh 26-9 in Week 4, has won three in a row and holds a one-game edge for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. "It's a great rivalry," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said of facing the Steelers. "We love playing in it. It's the most physical game we play every single year. It's always tough coming out of the game in that you're going to have a lot of bumps and bruises for sure. We have respect for them."

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Ravens (-0.5) - Steelers (-4) + home field (-3) = Steelers -6.5.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 6-point home chalk at most shops and money coming in on the road team dropped that number to -4.5. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and briefly went up to 44 before returning to the opening number late in the week.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    Kickoff will see 29 degrees and mostly cloudy - winds at 9mph with a 2% chance of precipitation

    INJURY REPORT:


    Ravens - LB C.J. Mosley (Probable, Neck), RB Alex Collins (Probable, Migraine), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable, Back), LB Za'Darius Smith (Questionable, Shoulder), G Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Jimmy Smith (I-R, Achilles).

    Steelers - WR Antonio Brown (Probable, Toe), TE Vance McDonald (Probable, Ankle), S Mike Mitchell (Probable, Ankle), LB T.J. Watt (Questionable, Knee), LB Tyler Matakevich (Questionable, Shoulder), LB James Harrison (Questionable, Back), LB Ryan Shazier (Out For Season, Spine), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Eligible Week 15, Suspension), OT Marcus Gilbert (Eligible Week 16, Suspension).

    ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U):
    Baltimore has registered three shutouts this season and is allowing an average of 12 points during the three-game winning streak behind an opportunistic defense that leads the league in takeaways (29) and a turnover differential (plus-14). That defense will be missing starting cornerback Jimmy Smith, who was lost for the season after suffering an Achilles injury in last week's 44-20 romp over Detroit. The Ravens have the 31st-ranked passing game in the league, but Joe Flacco threw for a season-high 269 yards and a pair of touchdowns as the team rolled up a season-high point total last week. Running back Alex Collins, who ran for 82 yards on nine carries versus Pittsburgh in Week 4, has rushed for four TDs over the past three games.

    ABOUT THE STEELERS (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U):
    Pittsburgh will be without Shazier, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions but underwent surgery Wednesday night for a spinal injury suffered in the last-second win at Cincinnati. "We send our thoughts and prayers to Ryan and his family, obviously, but we have a game to prepare for. And we know that's what Ryan wants," said quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who struggled in the first meeting against the Ravens but has 10 touchdowns versus three interceptions in his last three games. Running back Le'Veon Bell, the NFL's leading rusher, gouged Baltimore for 144 yards and two scores on the ground on Oct. 1. Wideout Antonio Brown tops the league in receptions (88) and has six TDs in a streak of three straight 100-yard games.

    TRENDS:


    * Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

    * Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

    * Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

    * Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road dog Ravens at a rate of 54 percent and the Under is getting 57 percent of the totals action


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-10-2017 at 01:01 PM.

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    NFL

    Monday, December 11


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Patriots at Dolphins
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    New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+10.5, 47.5)

    The New England Patriots have been among the league's best teams at keeping focused on the task at hand, but they must avoid looking ahead when they visit the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. Red-hot New England is tied with Pittsburgh for the best overall record (and No. 1 seed) in the AFC and has a showdown looming in the Steel City on Dec. 17.

    The Patriots have ripped off eight consecutive victories, including a 35-17 win over the Dolphins three weeks ago, but they have lost three of their past four visits to Miami. "They always play well down there against us, so I think we know it's going to be a lot different game, and environment, and everything else Monday night from what it was (on Nov. 26)," New England coach Bill Belichick said. While the Patriots can clinch a record nine AFC East title in a row, the Dolphins need a victory to keep their flickering postseason hopes alive. Miami, which entered the weekend trailing Baltimore by two games for the final playoff slot in the AFC, halted a five-game skid with a 35-9 drubbing of the reeling Denver Broncos last weekend.

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Patriots (-7.5) - Dolphins (4.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -6.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The road favorite Patriots opened as 12-point favorites, however, Dolphins money throughout the week has driven the pointspread down to 10.5 as of Sunday night. The total hit betting boards at 48.5 and has come down one full point to the current number of 47.5.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    58 degrees and clear at kickoff - winds 8-9 mph with no precipitation

    INJURY REPORT:


    Patriots - WR Chris Hogan (Probable, Shoulder), QB Tom Brady (Probable, Achilles), RB Mike Gillislee (Questionable, Illness), RB Dion Lewis (Questionable, Illness), DL Deatrich Wise (Questionable, Foot), CB Malcom Butler (Questionable, Ankle), LB Marquis Flowers (Questionable, Knee), CB Stephon Gilmore (Questionable, Ankle), DB Brandon King (Questionable, Hamstring), OL Marcus Cannon (Questionable, Ankle), WR Matthew Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Trevor Reilly (Questionable, Head), DL Trey Flowers (Questionable, Ribs), OL LaAdrian Waddle (Questionable, Ankle), LB Kyle Van Noy (Questionable, Leg), TE Rob Gronkowski (Eligible Week 15, Suspension).

    Dolphins - C Mike Pouncey (Probable, Hamstring), DT Ndamukong Suh (Questionable, Knee), S Michael Thomas (Questionable, Knee), G Jermon Bushrod (Questionable, Foot), DT Davon Godchaux (Questionable, Knee), CB Cordrea Tankersley (Questionable, Ankle), QB Matt Moore (Out, Foot), RB Damien Williams (Mid Dec, Shoulder), OT Eric Smith (Questionable, Knee), S Maurice Smith (I-R, Illness).

    ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U):
    Quarterback Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the season opener in last week's 23-3 win at Buffalo, but the NFL's leading passer burned Miami for four scoring passers three weeks ago. Brady insists he will play despite not practicing due to an Achilles injury and he will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski, who had two TD passes versus Miami but was suspended one game for delivering a forearm to the back of the head of a prone Buffalo defensive back last week. Dion Lewis ran for 115 yards against the Dolphins last month and leads a ground game that has amassed over 190 yards in each of New England's last two wins. A defense that was ravaged early in the season has not allowed more than 17 points during the winning streak.

    ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (5-7 SU, 4-6-2 ATS, 7-5 O/U):
    Miami was gouged for a staggering 177 points during its five-game slide before sending Denver to its eighth straight defeat, getting a pair of safeties and a touchdown from its defense and special teams. Quarterback Jay Cutler missed last month's matchup versus the Patriots due to injury, but returned last week with a rather pedestrian performance, throwing for 235 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry has at least five catches in every game this season, including eight for 70 yards in the first matchup, and has at least six receptions in his last six games versus New England. An injury to Damien Williams opened the door for Kenyan Drake to rush for 120 yards and a TD on 23 carries last week.

    TRENDS:


    * Patriots are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

    * Dolphins are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.

    * Over is 7-0 in Dolphins last 7 games overall.

    * Home team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road chalk Patriots at a rate of 63 percent and the Over is getting 64 percent of the totals action.


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    NFL opening line report: Patriots at Steelers highlights Week 15
    Patrick Everson

    'We’ll look to open the Patriots as 2- or 3-point favorites. They are simply the most dominant club in the league, and the next team isn’t that close."

    As the NFL season hits Week 15, the playoff push is reaching full throttle. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a quartet of key contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (no line)

    New England is very much rounding into the form of a defending Super Bowl champion, though it still has some Week 14 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Miami. The Patriots (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) are on an eight-game winning streak, cashing for bettors in seven of those contests. In Week 13, the Pats stumped Buffalo 23-3 as a 7.5-point road favorite.

    Pittsburgh barely kept alive its winning streak in the Week 14 Sunday nighter. The Steelers (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) snagged their eighth consecutive victory (4-4 ATS), edging Baltimore 39-38 on a last-minute field goal while failing to cash as a 6-point home chalk.

    With Pittsburgh playing late Sunday and New England yet to play, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting this line.

    “As long as nothing out of the ordinary happens in the final two games of the week, we’ll look to open the Patriots as 2- or 3-point favorites,” Cooley said. “They are simply the most dominant club in the league, and the next team isn’t that close. This game will command a huge handle, and hopefully we’ll get a great game.”

    Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)

    Kansas City finally got out of its rut, halting a four-game losing streak and a 1-6 SU and ATS slide overall. The Chiefs (7-6 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 26-15 on Sunday as a 4.5-point home fave.

    Thanks to K.C.’s slide, Los Angeles (7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) has surged into contention in the AFC West. The Chargers rolled Washington 30-13 laying 6 points at home Sunday.

    “The Chiefs finally flexed their muscles this week, but wow, the Chargers have certainly impressed,” Cooley said. “And really that’s been the case all season. We have L.A. ranked higher in our ratings at this point, which is probably surprising to some. Early smart money is on the Chargers.”

    That took the opening line of Chiefs -1 down to pick ‘em at Bookmaker.eu. Both teams will go on slightly shorter rest, as this is a Saturday night game.

    Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)

    Los Angeles had a great opportunity to take a two-game lead in the NFC West, but couldn’t find a way to handle Philadelphia, even after knocking QB Carson Wentz out of the game. The Rams (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) rebounded from a 21-7 first-half deficit and took a 35-31 lead early in the fourth quarter, but ultimately fell short 43-35 laying 1 point at home.

    The reason L.A. could have taken a two-game lead: Seattle lost at Jacksonville 30-24 as a 3-point pup Sunday. The Seahawks beat the Rams 16-10 as a 2-point road ‘dog on Oct. 8, so a win this week would create a tie at the top of the division, with Seattle owning the tiebreaker on head-to-head.

    “Early sharp money suggests this should have opened closer to a pick,” Cooley said, noting the line indeed moved down to pick ‘em on Seattle money. “I could certainly see this game going either way. Seattle got the best of the Rams earlier this season, but that Los Angeles squad has made leaps-and-bounds improvement since then.”

    Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (no line)

    Carolina moved back into a tie atop the NFC South, taking advantage of New Orleans’ Thursday night loss at Atlanta. The Panthers (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) slowed down red-hot Minnesota, claiming a 31-24 home victory getting 2.5 points Sunday.

    Green Bay nearly gave up Cleveland’s first win of the year, pulling out a 27-21 overtime victory giving 2.5 points on the road. Now, there’s the expectation that star quarterback Aaron Rodgers returns for the Week 15 clash with Carolina. But since that’s not yet certain, Bookmaker.eu isn’t posting a number.

    “We’re expecting Rodgers to be back in action, but you never know. So we’ll wait to get confirmation before putting up a line,” Cooley said. “Rodgers is worth so much to the line, we can’t risk hanging a bad number. If he does suit up, we’re probably looking at Carolina being a small favorite, possibly down to even a pick ‘em.”

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Top 6 picks in Week 14 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) San Francisco 49ers +3 (572)- W

    5) Baltimore Ravens +5 (583)- W

    4) Green Bay Packers -3 (619)- W

    3) Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (700)- L

    2) Minnesota Vikings, -2.5 (757)- L

    1) Philadelphia Eagles, +2 (782)- W

    Record of top 6 picks each week: 42-42


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 14: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Steelers 39, Ravens 38— Roethlisberger is now first NFL QB with three 500+-yard passing games; Steelers converted 12-18 on 3rd down, overcame 31-20 deficit in 4th quarter, kicking GW FG with 0:42 left. Pitt won its last eight games; five of their last six wins were by 5 or less points. Ravens are +20 in turnovers in their wins, -7 in losses. Antonio Brown caught 11 balls for 213 yards for the Steelers, who host New England next week.

    Steelers led this game 14-0 early; in their history, Pittsburgh is 216-0-2 at home when they lead by 14+ points in the first half.

    Eagles 43, Rams 35— Both teams lost here; Rams lost the game, Eagles fear they lost QB Wentz with a torn ACL. Backup QB Foles led three drives for Eagles; two of them ended in FG’s, but he is no Wentz. Philly led 21-7 early, but LA blocked a punt for a TD to take a 28-24 lead. Rams are only 11 of last 43 on 3rd down; they lost both starting CB’s to injury.

    Pet Peeve Department: This was a really good game between two really good teams; there were 130 plays in this game, plus 15 kickoffs— can you imagine the amount of trash talking going on, in a game with over 67,000 fans, many of whom were Eagle fans?

    Yet only one taunting penalty was called the whole game, a huge penalty on Rams’ CB Trumaine Johnson after an incomplete pass on a 3rd-and-10 with 5:56 left in third quarter, that turned an Eagles’ FG attempt into an Eagles’ TD. You call a taunting penalty in that spot, you’re determining who wins the game.

    Panthers 31, Vikings 24— Cam Newton threw an INT on a tipped ball with 4:36 left that gave Minnesota great field position for tying FG, but then he led Carolina 75 yards on five plays for the game-winning TD with 1:47 left, snapping Minnesota’s 8-game win streak. In their last five games, Minnesota is 34-66 (51.5%) on 3rd down, their opponents 17-61 (27.9%). Panthers won five of last six games, are tied with Saints for first place in NFC South.

    Jaguars 30, Seahawks 24— Game was 3-0 at the half; if you bet the under, yikes. Seattle scored three TD’s in this game, on drives of 2-1-2 plays, on plays of 26-61-74 yards, but Wilson threw three INTs and Jaguars had TD drives of 42-1-75 yards, and averaged 9.9 yards/pass attempt.

    With three games left, Jacksonville leads AFC South by a game; Seattle trails the Rams by a game in NFC West, but they host LA this coming week.

    Bills 13, Colts 7 OT— Game was played during a blizzard; as much as a foot of snow fell during the game. Carts couldn’t come on the field to take injured players off the field, because they’d get stuck in the snow. Colts tied game with 1:16 left, but then Buffalo scored on a 21-yard run by McCoy to improve to 7-6. Buffalo somehow converted 10-18 on 3rd down, with 3rd-string QB Webb playing second half after rookie starter Peterman got hurt.

    Cardinals 12, Titans 7— Arizona won without scoring a TD; NFL teams are 5-26 this season when they don’t score an offensive TD- in three of other four wins, the losing team didn’t score an offensive TD either, making that stat effectively 2-23.

    Tennessee was -2 in turnovers; this week, teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 2-9. Titans are game behind Jacksonville in AFC South but are still in Wild Card race too.

    Lions 24, Buccaneers 21— Matthew Stafford is making around $28M a year now, so when you make $28M and you hurt your hand, you play anyway, and you go 36-44/381 passing, and lead the team to the game-winning FG with 0:20 left.

    This was an ugly game; Bucs turned ball over five times. Detroit three, but there are no ugly wins and the Lions are now 7-6 and have life in the Wild Card chase.

    Packers 27, Browns 21 OT— Cleveland led 21-7 after three quarters; Packers tied game with 0:17 left, then won it in OT and are now 7-6, with Rodgers expected at QB in next week or two. Last three weeks, Green Bay opponents converted 24 of 42 third down plays.

    Browns are now 3-10 vs spread; if you bet Cleveland +3, this was a brutal beat, but if you bet on the Browns +3, you deserve a brutal beat or two. Don’t wager on terrible teams.

    Chiefs 26, Raiders 15— KC and Chargers are now tied atop AFC West after this surprisingly easy win by the Chiefs over their longtime rivals, just their second win in last eight games overall.

    Dismal effort by the Raiders, who ran the ball only 11 times, threw it 41- they were outgained 408-268.

    Chargers 30, Redskins 13— Washington went 3/out on five of 11 drives; they were outgunned 488-201. This is a small point, but with 2:34 left in game, Jay Gruden committed coaching malpractice- here’s how:

    Chargers led 30-6 in last 3:00, but Redskins scored on a pick-6 to make it 30-12 with 2:34 left. This is a about a 1,000-1 shot, but if Washington gets a 2-point conversion, then it is 30-14 and a two-score game. You try the onside kick and who knows?

    To me it is inexcusable not to at least TRY the 2-point conversion; it is called giving up.

    Bears 33, Bengals 7— Cincy had a hangover from blowing a 17-0 lead to their rival Steelers Monday night; Chicago outgained them 482-234 with a rookie QB playing on the road. Since 2005, Cincy is 5-10-1 vs spread in game the week following a loss to Pittsburgh.

    Cowboys 30, Giants 10— Game was tied 10-10 with 8:00 left, but then Dallas scored three TD’s in a 4:41 span to win going away. Giants scored TD/FG on their first three drives, but for rest of the game, they ran 48 plays for 176 yards, as they dropped to 1-5 at home.

    49ers 26, Texans 16— Houston QB Savage got knocked goofy, 3rd-stringer TJ Yates finished up for Texan squad that lost six of its last seven games. 49ers won three of last four games after a 0-9 start; Garoppolo is now 4-0 as an NFL starter.

    Broncos 23, Jets 0— Denver snaps an 8-game skid by blanking Jets squad that lost QB McCown to injury; Gang Green didn’t any plays longer than 14 yards, was held to 100 total yards for the game. Jets are 1-5 on the road and the only win was in Cleveland.

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