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Thread: Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/30

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    Default Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/30

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 30

    Good Luck on day #333 of 2017!
    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    Some trends for Week 13 of the NFL

    — Seahawks covered eight of last ten games as a home underdog.

    — 49ers are 3-16 vs spread in last 19 non-divisional games.

    — Oakland is 2-6-1 vs spread in its last seven games.

    — Chiefs covered 14 of last 18 games as a road favorite.

    — Minnesota Vikings covered their last six games.

    — New England is 2-8 vs spread as a divisional road favorite.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

    13) University of Tennessee’s football team is still looking for a football coach, as they re-define the term “clusterfuck”. At this rate, they’ll be interviewing Al Pacino for the job; he was good as the football coach in Any Given Sunday.

    What a bunch of bumbling fools the Tennessee administration is; they offer Jeff Brohm a deal, he says yes, the AD takes it to the chancellor, who says no— they make changes, the AD takes it back to Brohm, who then says no. Oy.

    12) Since Les Miles doesn’t appear to be a candidate in Knoxville, how about Tee Martin, who is the offensive coordinator at USC now and was a QB in college who led Tennessee to the national title in 1998? Martin replaced Peyton Manning as the Vols’ QB- wouldn’t he be a good choice?

    11) I’m sure the NFL offices were thrilled that Sports Illustrated came out with an article saying that Browns’ WR Josh Gordon was making $10,000 a month in college selling weed.

    Gordon is playing this week for the first time in three years after various suspensions.

    10) There will be conference games in college basketball this weekend; the Big 14 is playing two games per team, because their conference season is a week shorter this year, with the conference tournament in Madison Square Garden in March.

    That means the Big 14 teams who make the NCAA tournament will have a week off before Selection Sunday, which is very unusual.

    9) March 17 will be Decision Day for Eli Manning and the Giants- they owe him a $5M bonus if he is still on the roster then. Chances seem pretty good that he will not be.

    8) Best red zone offenses in the NFL (when teams get inside the opponents’ 20-yard line): Eagles 6.11 points/drive, Packers 5.35, Saints/Raiders 5.29

    Worst red zone offenses: Browns 3.11, Colts 3.36, Jets 3.38, Cardinals 4.00

    7) Best black zone offenses in NFL (drives that start 75+ yards from goal line): Patriots 2.59 pts/drive, Saints 2.43 Eagles 2.21, Vikings 2.07

    Worst black zone offenses: Colts 0.64, Browns 0.78, Giants 0.92, Ravens 0.93

    6) Best ratios of 20+-yard plays, for/against: Vikings +24 (54-30), Eagles +17 (47-30), Falcons +16 (48-32)

    Worst ratios: Giants -26 (26-52), Colts -22 (36-58), Buccaneers -17 (38-55).

    5) East Carolina basketball coach Jeff Lebo resigned (got fired) Wednesday; Pirates are 2-4 in what was Lebo’s 8th year in charge at ECU- he is the second coach to leave his job this week, and it isn’t December yet.

    4) Dak Prescott has thrown six INT’s in 4th quarter, most of any QB in NFL this season.

    3) Nation-wide in college football conference title games that are rematches, the team that won the first game is 17-13 vs spread in the second meeting.

    2) You can’t make this stuff up: American Airlines says a computer glitch allowed all their pilots to take vacation over Christmas week. Now the pilots’ union says thousands of flights are in jeopardy of cancellation. Americans says they’re offering time and a half pay for pilots to fill in and expect (hope) to resolve the issue.

    1) Since Eli Manning has been the Giants’ starting QB, the three other NFC East teams have all had 10+ starting QB’s- Washington has had 10, Eagles/Dallas 12 each.

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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, November 30


    Philadelphia @ Boston

    Game 501-502
    November 30, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    119.934
    Boston
    125.807
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 6
    208
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    N/A

    Cleveland @ Atlanta


    Game 503-504
    November 30, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    120.522
    Atlanta
    120.751
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    Even
    209
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cleveland
    by 8
    215 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+8); Under

    Chicago @ Denver


    Game 505-506
    November 30, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    105.819
    Denver
    119.712
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 14
    214
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 11
    208 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-11); Over

    Milwaukee @ Portland


    Game 507-508
    November 30, 2017 @ 10:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Milwaukee
    116.630
    Portland
    123.629
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Portland
    by 7
    207
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland
    by 2
    200 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Portland
    (-2); Over

    Utah @ LA Clippers


    Game 509-510
    November 30, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Utah
    120.881
    LA Clippers
    118.438
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Utah
    by 2 1/2
    204
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Utah
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Utah
    N/A





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, November 30


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    PHILADELPHIA (12 - 8) at BOSTON (18 - 4) - 11/30/2017, 7:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 5-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 8-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CLEVELAND (14 - 7) at ATLANTA (4 - 16) - 11/30/2017, 7:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
    CLEVELAND is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 7-5 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 8-4 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CHICAGO (3 - 16) at DENVER (11 - 9) - 11/30/2017, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 264-323 ATS (-91.3 Units) in the first half of the season since 1996.
    CHICAGO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
    CHICAGO is 155-120 ATS (+23.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 4-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MILWAUKEE (10 - 9) at PORTLAND (13 - 8) - 11/30/2017, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MILWAUKEE is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 257-313 ATS (-87.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
    MILWAUKEE is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MILWAUKEE is 3-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    MILWAUKEE is 4-1 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    UTAH (10 - 11) at LA CLIPPERS (8 - 11) - 11/30/2017, 10:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CLIPPERS is 8-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    LA CLIPPERS is 9-6 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
    8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, November 30


    Celtics won nine of last ten games with Philly, but 76ers covered four of last five. Five of last six series games went over total. Sixers covered their last three visits to Boston. Philly won six of last eight games, are 5-2 vs spread as road favorites- three of their last four road games went over total. Boston won 18 of its last 20 games; they’re 5-2-1 as home favorites. Last six Celtics games went over the total.

    Hawks won four of last five games with Cleveland; road team won six of last seven series games. Cleveland is 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Atlanta. Seven of last eight series games went over total. Cavaliers won their last nine games (5-4 vs spread); they’re 3-3 as road favorites. Under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Hawks lost eight of last ten games; they’re 3-5 as home underdogs. Four of their last six games went over the total.

    Nuggets won their last three games with Chicago; home side seven of last eight series games. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Bulls are 0-5 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Chicago lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); four of their last five games stayed under. Bulls are 0-5-1 vs spread in last six games as a road underdog. Nuggets won their last five home games, are 5-3 as home favorites. Last three Denver games stayed under total.

    Bucks won five of last six games with Portland; home side won seven of last eight series games. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Milwaukee covered three of last four visits to Oregon. Bucks lost three of last five games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs. Last three Milwaukee games went over the total. Trailblazers won seven of last nine games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Portland is 2-7-1 vs spread as a home favorite.

    Jazz/Clippers split their last 10 meetings (Utah 6-4 vs spread); Jazz is 4-2 vs spread in last six series games in Staples. Three of last fur series games stayed under. Utah won its last three games, all at home; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Clippers are without Griffin now (knee); they won last three games, are 5-4 as a home favorite. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.




    NBA

    Thursday, November 30


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND @ ATLANTA
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home

    PHILADELPHIA @ BOSTON
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Boston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
    Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

    CHICAGO @ DENVER
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

    MILWAUKEE @ PORTLAND
    Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
    Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games at home
    Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

    UTAH @ LA CLIPPERS
    Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
    LA Clippers is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Utah


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 12:44 PM.

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    Top NBA ATS Teams:

    1. Celtics 17-4-1 ATS
    2. Sixers 14-5 ATS
    3. Pistons 13-5-1 ATS
    4. Nets 13-7 ATS
    5. Pacers 13-8 ATS
    t6. Knicks 12-8 ATS
    t6. Pelicans 12-8 ATS
    8. Twolves 11-8 ATS
    9. Rockets 11-9 ATS
    10. Jazz 11-10 ATS
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 12:45 PM.

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    Inside the Paint - Thursday
    November 30, 2017


    Game of the Night – Milwaukee (10-9 SU, 8-9-2 ATS at Portland (13-8 SU, 8-11-2 ATS)

    These clubs battled in the first week of the season from the BMO Harris Bradley Center and it looked like Portland was going to remain undefeated at 3-0. The Trail Blazers led the Bucks 110-109 late in the fourth quarter and they had possession. Then, Bucks All-Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo took over the game with a steal and game-winning dunk and Milwaukee snuck out with a 113-110 victory as a three-point home favorite.

    Fast forward to Thursday’s rematch in Portland and the oddsmakers have installed the Trail Blazers as three-point home favorites.

    Portland enters this game with momentum again, winners in three straight and seven of its last nine games. The club just finished off a 4-1 road trip and the first game back at home is never an easy matchup but the Blazers have been off since Monday.

    If you haven’t followed the Trail Blazers this season, then you’re probably not aware that they’ve become much better defensively. The unit is ranked first in field goal defense (43.3%) and third in scoring defense (98.8 PPG). Last season, they allowed 109 PPG which was ranked 25th in the league.

    While the defense has improved, Portland has taken a step back this season. It’s averaging 103.2 PPG compared to 107.6 PPG and that production has led to a league-best 15-6 ‘under’ mark. The club is expected to get forward Al-Farouq Aminu back in the lineup tonight after missing 13 games and while he’s not well known to many, he can spread the floor and take the pressure off the talented backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

    The Bucks will counter the Blazers top pair tonight with point guard Eric Bledsoe, who they acquired via trade from the Suns in early November. Since he’s been in the lineup, Milwaukee has gone 6-3 and that includes a 112-87 win at Sacramento on Tuesday.

    Even with Bledsoe, the Bucks have been a tough team to figure out and their 5-5 record (5-4-1 ATS) on the road sums that statement up. Including the win over Portland, the Bucks have gone 6-3 versus the West this season.

    The Trail Blazers have gone 7-4 at the Moda Center this season but they’ve won their last three games while holding opponents to 88.6 PPG. The ‘under’ has gone 9-2 at home this season. Tonight’s total opened 200 ½ and was listed as high as 203 this morning. The low side is on a 5-2 run in this series and that includes the last three games between the pair played in Portland.

    Tip-off is slated for 10:05 p.m. ET and NBATV will provide national coverage.

    Along with this matchup, we have four other games slated in the NBA on Thursday.

    Philadelphia (11-8 SU, 14-5 ATS) at Boston (18-4 SU, 17-4-1 ATS)

    This had potential to be a great game but the 76ers are expected to give center Joel Embiid the night off with the team facing a back-to-back spot. Last night, Philadelphia defeated Washington 118-113 but failed to cover as a seven-point home favorite. The win came two days after the 76ers were blasted by 22 points (113-91) at home on Monday to the Cavaliers. This will be the second game this season for Philadelphia on zero days rest and the first outcome was a 128-94 blowout loss at Toronto and Embiid didn’t suit up in the loss.

    Since winning 16 straight, the Celtics have gone 2-2 both SU and ATS which includes a 118-108 home loss to the Pistons on Monday. Despite the setback, Boston has gone 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS at TD Garden this season. The Celtics defeated the 76ers 102-92 on Oct. 20 as three-point road underdogs and that win improved their record to 12-1 in the last 13 meetings.

    It’s hard to make a case for the 76ers without Embiid and Philadelphia hasn’t been great against opponents above .500 (5-7) this season. Also, Boston is 4-0 versus teams in the Atlantic Division while Philadelphia remains winless (0-2). NBATV will provide national coverage of this game at 7:35 p.m. ET.

    Cleveland (14-7 SU, 8-12-1 ATS) at Atlanta (4-16 SU, 8-11-1 ATS)


    The Cavaliers opened as 7 ½-point road favorites in this matchup and I thought the line would be a tad higher based on their form and the clear-cut edge in talent they have over the Hawks. Cleveland has won nine straight (5-4 ATS) and five of those wins came on the road.

    Atlanta has four wins on the season and it averaged 119 PPG in those victories which tells you that it can’t beat anybody unless it shoots lights out. Ironically, one of those victories for the Hawks came in a 117-115 result at Cleveland on Nov. 5 as 11 ½-point road underdogs. Can the Hawks capture lightning in a bottle again? Including the recent win, Atlanta is 4-1 both SU and ATS in its last five meetings against Cleveland while the ‘over’ has gone 5-0.

    Even though the Cavs have been much better defensively (101 PPG) during their winning streak, the Hawks own the best ‘over’ mark (7-2) at home this season and I would expect a hot pace in this spot.

    Chicago (3-16 SU, 8-10-1 ATS) at Denver (11-9 SU, 8-12 ATS)


    The Bulls (+11) are catching a healthy number again and this will likely be the ninth time this season that the club closes as double-digit ‘dogs. Chicago has gone 0-8 in this role so far and a 4-4 ATS mark isn’t horrible but a couple of those losses watched them get drubbed by 39 and 49 points to the Spurs and Warriors respectively.

    Denver certainly isn’t in the same class as that pair, but it has won its last five games (4-1 ATS) when laying 10-plus points. I like Mike Malone as a coach and while he’s got a young team that is now short-handed (Paul Millsap injury), they bounce back quickly. The Nuggets just had a rough loss on Tuesday at Utah (106-77) but the club has only dropped back-to-back games once this season. Off a loss, Denver has gone 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS.

    A couple other reasons you could lay the points tonight – Denver owns an 8-4 record vs. sub .500 teams and they’ve won six of their last seven games versus foes from the East. Meanwhile, Chicago is a dreadful 0-10 against the West this season and it’s 1-9 ATS in those games with nine of the setbacks decided by double digits. Now you see why Denver is a healthy favorite.

    Utah (10-11 SU, 11-10 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (8-11 SU, 8-11 ATS)

    These teams met on Oct. 24 from the Staples Center and the Clippers captured a 102-84 win over the Jazz as five-point home favorites. Blake Griffin (22, 9, 6) and Patrick Beverly (19, 4, 5) and combined for 41 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists in the win. I mention the pair because L.A. lost Beverly for the season due to a knee injury on Nov. 20 and Griffin just went down with a knee sprain in Monday’s win 120-115 win over the Lakers. He’s expected to miss up to two months.

    Along with those guys, key offseason acquisitions Danilo Gallinari (hip) and Milos Teodosic (foot) aren’t expected back until late December. Utah was dealt an injury blow this season as well with center Rudy Gobert (knee) going down in early November and he’s not expected back until January at the earliest. Also, Rodney Hood (ankle) sat out Tuesday’s win over Denver and is ‘questionable’ for Thursday.

    Despite all the absences, both clubs bring three-game winning streaks into this matchup and guessing who will win their fourth is a toss-up. If Hood plays for the Jazz, I would expect Utah to close as a short road favorite.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    OVER is 5-1 in Sixers' last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record & 10-3 in their last 13 road games.
    OVER is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 overall.
    OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.
    PHI/BOS Total: 211.5
    * No Embiid (scheduled off day)

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    Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
    Bulls are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver.
    Line: Nuggets -10.5

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