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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 ( Thur., Nov. 30 - Mon., Dec. 4 )

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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 ( Thur., Nov. 30 - Mon., Dec. 4 )

    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 30 - Monday, December 4

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    NFL opening line report: Divisional showdown in New Orleans highlights Week 13
    Patrick Everson

    "We know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don’t be surprised to see this finish at -3."

    Week 13 on the NFL docket includes a divisional battle for first place among two teams that finished below .500 last season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a quartet of contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)

    New Orleans went 7-9 SU last year and lost its first two games this season, then made an impressive about-face with eight consecutive victories (7-1 ATS). However, the win streak came to an end Sunday for the Saints (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS), who lost to the Los Angeles Rams 26-20 as a 2.5-point road underdog.

    Carolina, which reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago before a dismal 6-10 SU campaign last year, has won and cashed each of its last four. The Panthers (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) were 5.5-point chalk at the New York Jets on Sunday and covered when a late field goal finished off a 35-27 victory.

    “It’s tough to trust either of these teams, in my opinion, but they are both quality clubs,” Cooley said. “Obviously a ton on the line, given the division climate, and we know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don’t be surprised to see this finish at -3.”

    Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

    Without question, Philadelphia is the class of the NFC and perhaps even the whole league. The Eagles (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) have won nine in a row on the field and eight straight against the oddsmakers, including Sunday’s 31-3 rout of Chicago as a 14-point favorite.

    Seattle (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) is always a playoff threat, but with its depleted defense – no Richard Sherman or Kam Chancellor, among others – and a surprising Rams squad in the NFC West, things won’t get any easier. The Seahawks weathered the injuries Sunday to notch a 24-13 victory at San Francisco laying 7 points.

    “This is the first time Seattle has opened as a ‘dog in a long time, but it’s certainly warranted here,” Cooley said. “Philadelphia is playing like the second-best team in the league, and the Eagles are not far behind the Patriots in our power ratings. Early action indicates this will get past the key number sooner than later.”

    And indeed it did, as Philly moved to -4 for this Sunday night prime-time showdown.

    Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

    The loser of this Thursday night meeting can probably start thinking hard about next season. Dallas has lost its last three games, all without suspended star running back Ezekiel Elliott, who still must sit out three more games. The Cowboys (5-6 SU and ATS) got dumped by the Los Angeles Chargers 28-6 as a 1-point home pup on Thanksgiving Day.

    Washington, also 5-6 SU and ATS, played the Turkey Day Thursday nighter and came away with a 20-10 win over the New York Giants giving 7 points at home.

    “Despite an early move to -1.5, I’m sure we’ll see some sharp money on Washington at some point,” Cooley said. “The Cowboys have had their backs against the wall for two weeks, and they’ve come out flat each time. I’d be hard-pressed to bet on this Dallas squad right now.”

    Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

    Minnesota has been far more stout than expected this season, with third-string quarterback Case Keenum proving quite capable, complemented by a solid defense. The Vikings (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) are on a seven-game winning streak, besting Detroit 30-23 on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point road chalk to cover for the sixth straight week.

    Defending NFC champion Atlanta continues to look up at Carolina and New Orleans just within the South Division. The Falcons (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won and cashed three straight, though, topping Tampa Bay 34-20 as a 10.5-point road favorite Sunday.

    “My gut feeling is that this will come down a decent bit. Some of the team wanted to see -1 or -2 here, instead of the field goal, but that’s what we settled on,” Cooley said. “The Falcons are certainly no cakewalk for opponents, but it will be interesting to see how they handle that vaunted Vikings defense.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 03:51 AM.

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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 13


    If this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.

    Thursday, November 30

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    WASHINGTON (5 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 6) - 11/30/2017, 8:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    DALLAS is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, December 3

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    DETROIT (6 - 5) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BALTIMORE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 10) at CHICAGO (3 - 8) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MINNESOTA (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    ATLANTA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) at BUFFALO (6 - 5) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BUFFALO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) off a division game since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 112-80 ATS (+24.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 118-83 ATS (+26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 82-53 ATS (+23.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    DENVER (3 - 8) at MIAMI (4 - 7) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
    DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
    DENVER is 58-82 ATS (-32.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
    MIAMI is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
    MIAMI is 55-80 ATS (-33.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    MIAMI is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    HOUSTON (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 29-52 ATS (-28.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TAMPA BAY (4 - 7) at GREEN BAY (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GREEN BAY is 185-131 ATS (+40.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 65-38 ATS (+23.2 Units) in December games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    KANSAS CITY (6 - 5) at NY JETS (4 - 7) - 12/3/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CAROLINA (8 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 3) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    CAROLINA is 112-82 ATS (+21.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 64-41 ATS (+18.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 5-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CLEVELAND (0 - 11) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
    CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
    CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
    CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 1-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA RAMS (8 - 3) at ARIZONA (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 182-228 ATS (-68.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 182-228 ATS (-68.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 82-117 ATS (-46.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 130-180 ATS (-68.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 141-180 ATS (-57.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
    ARIZONA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY GIANTS (2 - 9) at OAKLAND (5 - 6) - 12/3/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY GIANTS are 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 33-58 ATS (-30.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 38-77 ATS (-46.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    PHILADELPHIA (10 - 1) at SEATTLE (7 - 4) - 12/3/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    SEATTLE is 66-37 ATS (+25.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
    PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday, December 4

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    PITTSBURGH (9 - 2) at CINCINNATI (5 - 6) - 12/4/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 104-73 ATS (+23.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 5-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by Udog; 12-01-2017 at 11:19 AM.

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    NFL

    Week 13


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday, November 30

    WASHINGTON @ DALLAS
    Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Washington


    Sunday, December 3

    SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO
    San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Chicago
    Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    Chicago is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

    TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Green Bay's last 18 games

    HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE
    Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
    Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
    Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

    MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA
    Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Minnesota

    DETROIT @ BALTIMORE
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
    Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

    NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
    New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 13 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against New England

    INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 13 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
    Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    DENVER @ MIAMI
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
    Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
    Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Denver

    KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS
    Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
    Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    NY Jets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

    CLEVELAND @ LA CHARGERS
    Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games

    CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
    Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

    NY GIANTS @ OAKLAND
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 15 games on the road
    Oakland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 11 games at home

    LA RAMS @ ARIZONA
    LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 17 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games

    PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE
    Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
    Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia


    Monday, December 4

    PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home


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    Last edited by Udog; 12-01-2017 at 11:24 AM.

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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13
    Monty Andrews

    The Jaguars come into the Week 13 with a league-best 41 sacks, resulting in 269 lost yards overall.

    San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 39.5)

    49ers' wretched red-zone record vs. Bears' bend-but-don't-break D

    It's a battle of teams who will likely have high picks in the 2018 draft when the Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. The Bears have dropped four in a row to sink to the bottom of the NFC North division - a disappointing development considering Chicago was near the .500 mark prior to the skid. Getting back there is highly improbable, but Sunday's encounter with the 1-10 49ers offers hope thanks to a sizeable edge in opponent red zone play.

    Bettors can dig up a variety of factors for San Francisco having just one victory on the season - and near the top of the list is the 49ers' season-long inability to convert trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line into touchdowns. San Francisco comes into Week 13 ranked 25th out of 32 teams in red-zone touchdown rate, reaching the end zone just 48.2 percent of those time. All those wasted trips downfield offer a reasonable explanation for why the 49ers average just 17 points per game in 2017.

    Life doesn't get any easier for the San Francisco offense in this one, as the host Bears have actually been a solid defensive unit when it comes to red-zone scoring prevention. Teams have turned red-zone opportunities into six points just 48.7 percent of the time against Chicago, the 11th-best rate in the league. Neither team is expected to put many points on the board - check out that total - but give the Bears a big green checkmark in the red-zone D department - and that mismatch could very well decide this one.

    Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 40.5)

    Colts' terrible QB protection vs. the phenomenon known as "Sasksonville"

    The Jacksonville Jaguars can't get to Week 13 quickly enough. After seeing their four-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Jaguars will look to regain sole possession of top spot in the AFC South as they host the division-rival Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is already a near-double-digit favorite in this one, and could make it a blowout if they can exert their pass-rush dominance against a Colts team that has struggled to protect the quarterback.

    Losing Andrew Luck for the season was certainly a blow to the Indianapolis offense, but it isn't like the Colts' offensive line would have done a good job of shielding him, anyhow. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been taken down a league-high 47 times so far this season; only two teams allowed more sacks than that in the entire 2016 season. Jacoby Brissett absorbed five sacks the last time these teams met, when Jacksonville cruised to a 27-0 victory back on Oct. 22.

    But don't take all those takedowns personally, Jacoby - that's just how the Jaguars roll. They come into the week with a league-best 41 sacks, resulting in 269 lost yards overall. The Jacksonville defense has been incredibly proficient in a number of areas - sitting tied for third in forced fumbles (17), sharing the lead in recovered fumbles (11) and scoring a league-high four touchdowns on those recoveries - but it's all those sacks that should have Colts fans and bettors alike concerned this Sunday.

    Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5, 42.5)

    Browns' robust run game vs. Chargers' ground struggles

    Will Cleveland win a game this season? You might fancy a wager if you believe the Browns will pull out a win somewhere along the way - but don't expect that victory to come in Week 13, with the visitors a nearly-two-touchdown underdog against a Chargers team that has rolled to back-to-back victories and sits just one game back of division-leading Kansas City in the AFC West. But stay tuned, bettors: Cleveland might have a way to keep this one closer than expected.

    Cleveland's offensive struggles are well noted - the team averages a league-worst 15.1 points per game on the back of a passing attack in which the Browns complete just over 54 percent of their attempts. But the running game has actually been an area of strength so far in 2017, averaging an impressive 4.4 yards per carry - the seventh-highest mark in the league. Isaiah Crowell has been able to move the chains for most of the season, provided that he doesn't get knocked out of the game script.

    The Chargers will look to force Cleveland into repeated third-down situations, with the Browns converting a league-worst 30 percent of those opportunities to date. But Los Angeles might have trouble keeping the Browns from excelling on the ground - the home side is allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season, tied with New England for the worst rate against in the NFL. If Crowell can break off a handful of meaningful runs, the Browns could control the clock sufficiently to cover this massive spread.

    Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 45.5)

    Rams' elite kicking game vs. Cardinals' field goal follies

    The Los Angeles Rams essentially control their playoff fate as they head into Arizona for a Sunday afternoon appointment with the NFC West-rival Cardinals. The Rams own a one-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks atop the division, and can help bolster their postseason chances with a win this weekend. Much of the focus will be on the Los Angeles offense taking on Arizona's impressive defense - but let's not overlook the kicking game, where the visitors own a significant advantage.

    Good teams get meaningful contributions from just about everyone on the roster - and the Rams certainly fit that bill, with terrific quarterback play from Jared Goff, an elite running game led by Todd Gurley and a stout defense anchored by Aaron Donald. But we can't forget placekicker Greg Zuerlein, who is having a career year with 32 field goals on 34 attempts through 11 games - including a 16-of-17 success rate on kicks of 40 yards or longer. The Rams' 94.1-percent field goal conversion rate ranks fourth overall.

    The Cardinals have given plenty of points away via the turnover; they cough up the ball an average of 1.6 times per game, ranking 26th out of 32 teams entering the week. But they've also been negligent when it comes to spoiling field-goal opportunities. Kicker Phil Dawson has whiffed on six of his 23 field-goal attempts, including four from 30-39 yards. Not only do the Cardinals rank 25th in conversion rate league-wide, they've also seen opposing kickers make every field-goal attempt through 11 weeks.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 03:55 AM.

  6. #6
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    Default

    NFL

    Tuesday, November 28




    Week 12 faves 12-4 ATS
    Last 2 weeks faves 22-7-1 ATS (75.9%)
    Since Week 7 faves are 55-24-6 ATS (69.6%)


    Top NFL ATS Teams:
    1. Eagles 9-2 ATS
    2. Vikes 8-3 ATS
    t3. Pats 7-4 ATS
    t3. Panthers 7-4 ATS
    t3. LARams 7-4 ATS
    t3. Saints 7-4 ATS
    t3. Texans 7-4 ATS


    Top NFL Over teams:
    1. Lions 8-3
    t2. Pack 7-4
    t2. Titans 7-4
    t2. Skins 7-4


    Top NFL Under teams:
    1. Steelers 8-3
    t2. Cards 7-4
    t2. Bears 7-4
    t2. Chargers 7-4
    t2. Seahawks 7-4
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 03:56 AM.

  7. #7
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    Default

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 13


    Thursday, November 30

    Washington @ Dallas

    Game 301-302
    November 30, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    133.989
    Dallas
    130.408
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    by 3 1/2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 1
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (-1); Over



    Sunday, December 3

    Detroit @ Baltimore

    Game 351-352
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    134.439
    Baltimore
    138.931
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 4 1/2
    36
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 2 1/2
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (-2 1/2); Under

    San Francisco @ Chicago


    Game 353-354
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    126.846
    Chicago
    125.498
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 1 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 3 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+3 1/2); Under

    Minnesota @ Atlanta


    Game 355-356
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    141.105
    Atlanta
    139.639
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 1 1/2
    50
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 3
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (+3); Over

    New England @ Buffalo


    Game 357-358
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    141.266
    Buffalo
    131.259
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 10
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 8
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-8); Under

    Denver @ Miami


    Game 359-360
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    124.209
    Miami
    121.052
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 3
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 1 1/2
    39
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-1 1/2); Over

    Houston @ Tennessee


    Game 361-362
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    130.758
    Tennessee
    135.600
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 10
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 6 1/2
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (-6 1/2); Over

    Indianapolis @ Jacksonville


    Game 363-364
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    124.501
    Jacksonville
    136.905
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 12 1/2
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 9
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (-9); Under

    Tampa Bay @ Green Bay


    Game 365-366
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    131.948
    Green Bay
    127.342
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 4 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 1
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (-1); Over

    Kansas City @ NY Jets


    Game 367-368
    December 3, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    132.342
    NY Jets
    126.948
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 5 1/2
    32
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 3
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-3); Under

    Carolina @ New Orleans


    Game 369-370
    December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    135.258
    New Orleans
    143.936
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 8 1/2
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-4); Over

    Cleveland @ LA Chargers


    Game 371-372
    December 3, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    120.382
    LA Chargers
    141 201
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 21
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 14
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Chargers
    (-14); Under

    LA Rams @ Arizona


    Game 373-374
    December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    141.321
    Arizona
    130.433
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 11
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 7
    44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-7); Over

    NY Giants @ Oakland


    Game 375-376
    December 3, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Giants
    120.334
    Oakland
    133.811
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oakland
    by 12 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oakland
    by 8 1/2
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (-8 1/2); Under

    Philadelphia @ Seattle


    Game 377-378
    December 3, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    146.774
    Seattle
    136.528
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 10
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 5 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (-5 1/2); Under



    Monday, December 4

    Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

    Game 379-380
    December 4, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    138.280
    Cincinnati
    130.072
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 8
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 5
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-5); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 12:56 PM.

  8. #8
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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 13


    Thursday's game
    Redskins (5-6) @ Cowboys (5-6)— Washington is 5-0 when they allow 24 or less points, 0-6 when they allow more. Cowboys are in freefall, losing last three games by combined score of 92-22, 72-6 in 2nd half. Dallas was outsacked 14-1 in last three games, with -7 turnover rate (1-8). Cowboys lost four of last five home games. Redskins lost four of last six games, are 2-3 on road, 3-2 vs spread as road underdog. Dallas (-2) beat Redskins 33-19 in first meeting in Week 8, outrushing Washington 169-49, with +2 turnover ratio. Cowboys won seven of last nine series games, but Redskins won three of last five visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 0-4 in Cowboys’ last four. Favorites are 5-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games.

    Sunday's games
    Lions (6-5) @ Ravens (6-5)— Ravens are +17 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses. Out of Baltimore’s six wins, five were against either backup QB’s or DeShone Kizer; Dalton is only decent QB they’ve beaten. Ravens are 3-2 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- they won three of last four games, allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last three games. Detroit won three of last four games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in Superdome when their offense gave up three TD’s. Home side won three of four series games; Lions lost both visits here, 19-10/48-3- their last visit here was in ’09. Over is 6-1 in last seven games for both teams. Lions have edge in rest/prep time; they played last Thursday, Ravens played on Monday. Detroit is 3-0 in outdoor games this season.

    49ers (1-10) @ Bears (3-8)— Niners’ QB Beathard got hurt LW; this could be Garoppolo’s first start for the 49ers- he won his only two NFL starts LY for the Patriots. Chicago lost its last four games, scoring 13.8 ppg; Bears are 2-4 at home- two of their three wins were in OT, in the third one Chicago’s only two TD’s were scored by the defense. 49ers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 3-2 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-3-2-23 points. Teams split last six meetings; 49ers lost 26-6 here LY, after winning in OT year before. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 3-7. Under is 7-4 in Chicago games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last three games. This is 49ers’ first road game since Oct 29.

    Vikings (9-2) @ Falcons (7-4)— Falcons were held to 17 or less points in their losses- they scored 23+ in all their wins. Atlanta won/covered its last three games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this years, with wins by 11-20-14 points and losses to Bills/Miami. Vikings won their last seven games, covered their last six; they’re 3-1 in true road games, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Minnesota won last two meetings 41-28/20-10, last of which was in 2015; they’re 5-2 in last seven visits to Atlanta. NFC south non-divisional home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Viking games went over total; under is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games. Minnesota had extra prep time, since they played on Thanksgiving Day.

    Patriots (9-2) @ Bills (6-5)— New England won its last seven games, covered last five; they’re 4-0 in true road games, 3-1 as road favorite, winning by 16-5-7-24 points. Patriots have started 14 drives in enemy territory this year, their opponents only one. Bills lost three of last four games; they’re +13 in turnovers in their wins, -7 in losses. Return of Taylor at QB righted ship in KC last week. Buffalo won twice in last five series games, after a 1-21 series skid; Patriots won last five visits to Orchard Park, scoring 38.4 ppg in wins by 24-2-15-8-16 points. Home teams are 5-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Five of last six Buffalo games went over total; five of last seven New England games stayed under.

    Broncos (3-8) @ Dolphins (4-7)— Denver coach Joseph was Miami’s DC last year. Adam Gase was in Denver for 6 years (2009-14), last two as OC. Denver lost its last seven games (0-7 vs spread); they’re back to Siemian at QB after Lynch got hurt LW. Broncos are 0-5 on road, 0-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 10-21-10-28-7 points. Dolphins lost their last four games (0-3-1 vs spread); Miami is 2-2 at home, 1-1-1 as a home favorite, winning home tilts by 6-3 points, with losses to Bucs/Raiders/ Denver won last two series games, 18-15(ot)/39-36; the OT win in 2011 was Broncos’ only win in seven visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Former Bronco Cutler is back at QB for Miami.

    Texans (4-7) @ Titans (7-4)— Short week for Texans after loss in Baltimore Monday nite; they pounded Tennessee 57-14 (+2.5) back in Week 4, when rookie QB Watson rang up six TD drives and 445 yards. Houston is 1-4 in Savage starts, scoring 10.6 ppg; they’re 1-4 on road, 3-1-1 as a road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-26-7 points. Tennessee won five of its last six games, with last four wins all by 4 or less points. Titans are 2-2-1 vs spread as home favorites. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games; they split last four series here. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Three of last four Titan games went over total, as have seven of last nine Houston games.

    Colts (3-8) @ Jaguars (7-4)— Indy lost five of last six games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, with road losses by 37-28-1-14 points, with win at Watson-less Houston. Jaguars had 4-game win streak snapped in Arizona LW; Jags are 3-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home tilts by 37-16-3 points, with losses to Titans/Rams. Colts (+3) got blanked 27-0 at home by Jaguars in Week 7; Jax ran ball for 188 yards, were +2 in turnovers. Jaguars won three of last four series games, winning 51-16 in last meeting here two years ago. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Four of last five games for both teams stayed under total. In their last seven games, Jaguars outscored opponents 87-30 in second half.

    Buccaneers (4-7) @ Packers (5-6)— Winston figures to return to lineup for Bucs team that lost six of last seven games, outscored 96-25 in first half of those games. Tampa Bay lost its last five road games, is 1-2-1 as road underdogs. Packers lost five of last six games, losing last three home tilts. Green Bay had three TD plays of 20+ yards LW; they had three all year before that. Packers are 2-1 as home favorites. Green Bay won last two series games, 35-26/10-3; last meeting was in ’14. Bucs are 1-14 in their last 15 visits to Wisconsin, last of which was in ’11. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-2 this season; NFC South underdogs are 4-5-1 vs spread, 3-3-1 on road. Over is 3-1 in last four Tampa games; under is 3-1 in last four Green Bay games.

    Chiefs (6-5) @ Jets (4-7)— Kansas City lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re back in Swamp Stadium for 2nd time in three weeks, after losing in OT to Giants two weeks ago. Chiefs lost last three road games- they’ve scored one TD on 23 drives in two games since their bye. Jets also lost five of last six games; they’re 3-3 at home (4-2 vs spread)- they were underdog in all six home games. KC won 24-10/24-3 in last two series games; they lost last two games against Jets here, with last visit to play Jets in 2011. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-10-1 vs spread, 2-3-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 8-8-1, 2-3-1 at home. Chiefs’ last three games stayed under total. Chiefs scored only 32 points in their last nine red zone drives.

    Panthers (8-3) @ Saints (8-3)— Carolina won/covered its last four games, coring 80 points in last two games; Panthers are 3-0 on artificial turf this year, scoring 33-27-35 points. Carolina is 3-0 as a road underdog this year. New Orleans had 8-game win streak snapped LW; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 14-8-20-3 points, and loss to Patriots. Saints (+6) waxed Carolina 34-13 in Charlotte in Week 3; they were +3 in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards. Panthers won four of last six series games, are 3-2 in last five visits to Superdome. NFC South divisional home favorites are 3-2 this year; NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-12-2 vs spread. Under is 6-3 in last nine New Orleans games.

    Browns (0-11) @ Chargers (5-6)— Cleveland is 1-26 the last two years; the one win was 20-17 over the Chargers on Lake Erie last Christmas Eve. Browns are first NFL team since ’76-’77 Bucs to start consecutive seasons 0-11. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back for first time since late 2014 here; he is an explosive threat. Chargers won five of last six games (6-1 vs spread); they’re 1-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 21-30 points, and losses to Miami-Chiefs-Eagles. LA had extra prep time after Turkey Day win in Dallas- they’re 16-28 on 3rd down in last two games. Browns won two of last three series games; teams split last six meetings played here. AFC West divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 5-4-1.

    Rams (8-3) @ Cardinals (5-6)— Trap game for LA after playing Vikings/Saints last two weeks, with Eagles/Seahawks on deck. Rams won five of last six games; they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss 24-7 at Minnesota. LA is 5-3 vs spread as a favorite this year. Arizona is 3-2 at home, losing by 11-6 points to Dallas/Seattle; they’re 2-1-1 as home underdogs. Rams haven’t swept Cardinals since 2012- they won last two visits here, 24-22/17-13. LA (-3) pounded Arizona 33-0 in London in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 197-25 in game where Palmer got hurt and was 23-0 at half. Road teams are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this year. Under is 7-3 in last ten Cardinal games, 4-1 in Rams’ last five games.

    Giants (2-9) @ Raiders (5-6)— Giants are starting Smith at QB, ending Manning’s 210-game starting streak, 2nd week in row Oakland faces a backup QB. Smith is 12-18 as an NFL starter; he went 8-8 in ’13, is 4-10 since. Big Blue is 3-2 as a road underdog; they’ve lost road games by 16-3-2-10-10 points. Oakland will be without top two WR’s Cooper (concussion), Crabtree (suspension) here; they also changed DC’s last week. Raiders are 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 25-1-7 points. Giants won last three games, by 9-37-4 points; they won last visit here 30-21 in 2005, their only win in three trips to Oakland. AFC West divisional home faves are 4-7 vs spread; NFC East road dogs are 8-3. Four of last six Giant games stayed under.

    Eagles (10-1) @ Seahawks (7-4)— Philly has huge lead in NFC East; they’ve won last nine games, covered last eight- they ran ball for 196 yds/game the last three games. Eagles are 4-1 on road, with only loss 27-20 in Week 2 at KC. Seahawks are just out of playoff picture; they held last four opponents to 89 or less rushing yards, but also lost last two home games. Seattle won its last three series games, by 17-10-11 points; Eagles’ last win here was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional faves are 7-7 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West dogs are 6-10 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Three of last four Philly games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in last seven Seattle games. Eagles have 10 takeaways in last four games (+6)- their opponents are 24 of last 97 on 3rd down.

    Monday's game
    Steelers (9-2) @ Bengals (5-6)— Steelers outrushed Cincy 153-71, were +2 in turnovers in 29-14 (-5.5) Week 7 win; Pitt won last five series games and 8 of last 9- they won last four games here, last two by total of six points. Pittsburgh won its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 5-1 on road, allowing 13.5 ppg in last four road games. Bengals are 5-3 in last eight games, covering last three; they won last three home tilts, after losing home games to Ravens/Texans to start season. Cincy is +3 in turnovers in last four games, after being -10 in first seven. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Under is 8-3 in Steeler games, 2-4 in Bengals’ last six games. Three of last four Steeler wins were by five or less points.

    2017 week-by-week results
    HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
    1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
    2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
    3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N
    4) 4-7 2-3 8-7-1 2-2
    5) 4-7 1-1 6-8 3-0A
    6) 3-8 3-0 8-6 3-1N
    7) 5-0-2 3-4 7-8 1-1
    8) 5-4 0-4 7-6 3-1N
    9) 5-2-1 0-3-1 5-8 2-0N
    10) 4-3 3-3-1 8-6 5-0N
    11) 4-4 1-5 7-7 2-2

    T) 46-50-1 26-29-2 77-80-2 24-13N
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 12:57 PM.

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    NFL

    Thursday, November 30


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Washington at Dallas
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Washington at Dallas Cowboys (+2, 45.5)

    The Dallas Cowboys are a decidedly different team than the one that coasted to a 33-19 win against Washington last month, especially considering Ezekiel Elliott rolled up a season-high 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns in that outing. With Elliott suspended, the Cowboys' overall offense hasn't been as potent and mustered just 22 points during the team's three-game losing skid heading into Thursday's contest versus visiting Washington.

    The Cowboys are averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry in Elliott's absence, but that's just noise to Alfred Morris as he prepares to face his former team. "You can say (the running game has been good enough), but it doesn't matter," Morris said. "We’re not winning games. We're not putting points on the board, so it doesn't matter if we, in a sense, are doing our part." Washington reached 30 points in back-to-back losses before tightening their defense in a 20-10 win over the sputtering New York Giants on Thanksgiving. Kirk Cousins (NFL second-best 3,038 yards), who tossed a pair of touchdown passes against the Giants, has thrown for 625 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions in his last two encounters with the Cowboys.

    TV:
    8:25 p.m. ET, NBC.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Washington (0) - Dallas (+2.5) + home field (-3) = Dallas -0.5.

    LINE HISTORY:
    Dallas opened as 1.5-point home favorites but on Tuesday afternoon the spread jumped the fence to Washington -1 and continued to move in that direction, now at 2. The total hit betting boards at 44 and has been bumped up to 45.5.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "Both teams played on Thanksgiving last week, so a rare situation where both teams have a full week of rest heading into the Thursday night game. Both teams are 5-6 SU and 5-6 ATS, but Dallas is a home underdog based on recent results as the Cowboys are 0-3 SU/ATS in the past three games since losing RB Ezekiel Elliott. Quite a line adjustment for this game considering Dallas was a 3-point road favorite at Washington just one month ago when they won 33-19. That result put the Redskins on a 0-4 ATS slide, but Washington has since gone 3-1 ATS in their past four games following that loss." - Steve Merril.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    Roof if needed - weather will not be a factor.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Back), LB Zach Brown (Questionable, Shoulder), G Brandon Scherff (Questionable, Knee), T Ty Nsekhe (Probable, Abdominal), T Morgan Moses (Probable, Ankle), DL Anthony Lanier II (Probable, Knee), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Hand), T Trent Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Martrell Spaight (Questionable, Ankle), DL Terrell McClain (Out, Toe), S Montae Nicholson (Out, Concussion), TE Jordan Reed (Out, Hamstring), C Chase Roullier (Out, Hand), C Spencer Long (I-R, Hip Flexor), G Shawn Lauvao (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Thompson (I-R, Leg), WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. (I-R, Ankle), T T.J. Clemmings (I-R, Ankle), LB Will Compton (I-R, Foot), RB Rob Kelley (I-R, Ankle), DL Arthur Jones (I-R, Shoulder), LB Mason Foster (I-R, Shoulder), DL Jonathan Allen (Out, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip), S Su'a Cravens (I-R, Knee), DL Phil Taylor Sr. (I-R, Quadricep), T Kevin Bowen (I-R, Ankle), LB Trent Murphy (I-R, Knee), RB Keith Marshall (I-R, Knee).

    Dallas - LB Anthony Hitchens (Probable, Groin), WR Ryan Switzer (Probable, Ankle), DT Maliek Collins (Probable, Foot), T Tyron Smith (Probable, Back), G Zack Martin (Probable, Concussion), T La'el Collins (Questionable, Back), LB Justin Durant (Out, Concussion), LB Sean Lee (Out, Hamstring), RB Ezekiel Elliott (Elig Week 16, Suspension), DE Randy Gregory (Out For Season, Suspension), TE Rico Gathers (Questionable, Concussion), TE Connor Hamlett (Questionable, Calf), DE Charles Tapper (Questionable, Foot), DT Brian Price (I-R, Knee), CB Duke Thomas (I-R, Knee), QB Zac Dysert (I-R, Back).

    ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U):
    While coach Jay Gruden was pleased to see left tackle Trent Williams (knee) participate in practice in a bid to end a one-game absence versus Dallas, the coach doesn't have high hopes for the return of tight end Jordan Reed. "Your guess is as good as mine," Gruden said of a potential return date for Reed, who has missed each of the last four games with a hamstring injury. "Obviously there is an issue there, otherwise I would like to think he would be further along now. But we just have to get him healthy." Rookie running back Samaje Perine has looked healthy with 217 rushing yards in his last two contests, and a season-best 130 scrimmage yards (100 rushing, 30 receiving) last week.

    ABOUT DALLAS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U):
    Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing game have taken a hit with the threat of Elliott removed from the offense. "It's frustrating, simple as that. But what it does is it makes being on top fun," said Prescott, who tossed five interceptions in his last two games to eclipse his total of four during his rookie season in 2016. "That's what it's all about is getting out of these whatever you call them, ruts, or whatever they are and getting back to our expectations, our standards." Wideout Dez Bryant has struggled to get untracked without Elliott, failing to crack 40 yards receiving in two of the last three games.

    TRENDS:


    * Washington is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
    * Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
    * Over is 14-3 in Washington's last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.
    * Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games overall.
    * Washington is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Dallas.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with Washington on the road at a rate of 64 percent and the Over is getting 73 percent of the totals action


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 12:59 PM.

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    NFL double-digit favorites a good bet in the final five weeks of the season
    Ashton Grewal

    NFL favorites are 45-20-4 against the spread in the last 30 days – a clip so high that even Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan couldn’t have lost money betting pro football in the last month.

    Sportsbook managers aren’t having the best November, as senior writer Patrick Everson detailed, but the chalk won’t walk at a 69 percent clip over the last five weeks of the NFL season. Bettors will have to dig a little deeper to find ways to beat their bookies.

    Looking at double-digit spreads is a good place to start. Double-digit favorites went 3-1 ATS last weekend with the New England Patriots putting down the Miami Dolphins by 18 points, the Philadelphia Eagles burying the Chicago Bears by four touchdowns, the Atlanta Falcons tearing up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points and the Pittsburgh Steelers inching past the Green Bay Packers.

    This could be a preview of what’s to come until the start of the postseason. We looked back over the last six years and found teams favored by 10 or more points are 38-29-1 ATS from Week 13 to Week 17. Even better, home teams are 41-26-1 ATS in games with double-digit spreads over the same time period.

    Just last season, all six home teams in games with 10-point or larger spreads went 6-0 ATS while favorites went 5-1. There’s only one double-digit spread on the board this weekend (Chargers -13.5 vs. Browns) but there should be quite a few in the weeks to follow as teams punt on the season and start taking a look at their backup players to see which are worth holding onto for next season.

    Here are some games to keep an eye on for potential double-digit spreads in Weeks 14 - 17:

    Week 14

    New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins


    The Pats just covered as 17-point home favorites against the Phins last weekend. Barring an injury to Tom Brady or a brain tumor for Bill Belichick, New England will be large favorites at Miami.

    Week 15

    Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

    The Lions won’t be confused for world beaters, but the Bears’ offense is so putrid it’s hard not seeing them getting at least 10 points in this divisional game.

    Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

    The Giants are already planning for the future that probably doesn’t include Eli Manning as their starting quarterback. This could be another huge line if Geno Smith is still at QB for the G-Men and the Eagles are still playing for the top overall seed in the NFC.

    New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

    Gang Green has been a double-digit underdog just once this season and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the Raiders. That seems like a long, long time ago. Despite the Saints’ setback against the Rams, bettors still love backing Drew Brees and the boys from the Bayou.

    Week 16

    Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles


    The Raiders are a mess. Head coach Jack Del Rio is presently prepping index cards with the names of his assistant coaches and assorting them by the likelihood who will be his next scapegoat to save his job.

    Week 17

    New York Jets at New England Patriots

    It’s safe to assume Brady will be playing in Week 17 because he did last season when the Pats had the first seed already sewn up.

    Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

    Will the Browns still be winless on the last weekend of the season? Would the Steelers put the squeeze on their division rival in a meaningless game for them or would they protect Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell from injury?

    Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

    The Vikes have won a lot of games this season but have been double-digit faves just once – and that was against… you guessed it… the Browns. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer hates losing preseason games, so it’s safe to assume he wouldn’t take his foot off the gas pedal even if there was nothing to play for in Week 17 for his team.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-30-2017 at 01:00 PM.

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    Essential Week 13 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

    Calais Campbell and the Jacksonville Jaguars defense leads the league in most quarterback sacks and goes against the Indianapolis Colts who happen to allow the most sacks per game in the league.

    Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (+3, 43.5)

    The Chiefs are in free fall after starting the year a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread, they’ve dropped to 6-5 SU and ATS. This type of collapse isn’t unprecedented. The Vikings did the same thing just last season and finished the season with an 8-8 record. The Chiefs became the 17th team to start a season 5-0 ATS. The previous 16 teams averaged 11.4 wins in their seasons.

    Kansas City’s offense went from averaging 32.8 points per game over the first five weeks to 18 per game since Week 6.

    LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 4-point road faves and the spread has moved down to a field goal line. The total is hanging around 43.5 and 44.

    TRENDS:

    *KC is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
    *The Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
    *The over is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five games.

    Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (+1.5, 39.5)

    The Broncos have lost seven games in a row and all the losing is starting to make the players on the team sick… literally. Head coach Vance Joseph says a flu bug is running through his team and was the reason defensive end Shelby Harris and linebacker Shane Ray missed practice on Wednesday. Keep your eye on reports over the weekend to see if any other players are feeling under the weather.

    LINE HISTORY: Miami opened as 1-point chalk and the line has flipped to make Denver the new short fave. The total opened at 38 and has gone as high as 40. Most shops are dealing 39.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games.
    *The Fish are 0-4-2 ATS in their last six games.
    *The over is 6-0 in Miami’s last six games.

    New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9, 48)

    Great stat from ESPN Bills beat reporter Mike Rodak. The Bills were first in the league in fewest points allowed after Week 4 (13.5 PPG) while the Patriots were second last at 32 points allowed per game. Since Week 5 the Bills are allowing 29.4 points per game – tied for second worst – and New England is allowing a league-best 13.1 points per game.

    LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 7.5-point favorites but the spread seems to be settling at 8.5 or 9. The total opened as high as 49.5 and now rests at 48 as we enter the weekend.

    TRENDS:

    *The Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 trips to Buffalo.
    *The over is 5-1 in the Bills' last six games.

    Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47)

    His head coach isn’t calling him the unquestioned starter at quarterback but Case Keenum is getting love everywhere else. He was awarded the NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November and was given a boisterous standing ovation at Timberwolves home game earlier this week.

    LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the Falcons listed as a field goal favorite and there hasn’t really been any wavering from the books. The total is staying pretty consistent too at 47.

    TRENDS:

    *The Vikings are 39-15 ATS in their last 54 games overall.
    *The over is 13-3 in the Falcons’ last 16 home games.

    Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 43)

    Turnovers have become a big problem for Tom Savage and the Texans. Houston has coughed up the ball up nine times in its last three games and Savage is responsible for 12 turnovers in his five starts this season. The giveaways could be even higher. Two weeks ago Houston fumbled the ball four times but only lost possession once.

    LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Titans giving seven points and the line has dropped a half point to make the Texans now 6.5-point road dogs. The total is holding steady at 42.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The over is 4-0 in Tennessee’s last four home games.
    *The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Titans.

    San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3, 41)

    Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first start for San Fran this weekend but he might be starting more out of necessity more than anything else. The Niners ponied up a second round pick to the Patriots for Garoppolo before the trade deadline but haven’t given him any game time yet.

    Former starter C.J. Beathard is working through a sore hip and isn’t healthy enough to start this weekend. Garoppolo doesn’t know Kyle Shanahan’s full playbook which means the Niners will be working with a limited amount of plays on Sunday against Chicago.

    “Whatever [Garoppolo] doesn’t feel comfortable with and doesn’t get down in these three practices, then we’ll take it out,” Shanahan said at the beginning of the week.

    LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Bears favored by 4.5 points when Beathard was the expected starter. The spread dropped 1.5 points once Garoppolo was announced as the starter. The total moved up from 39.5 to 41.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bears are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
    *The Niners are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-2, 45)

    The Bucs will have Jameis Winston back under center after a three-game absence to rest his sore shoulder. Starting running back Doug Martin will not be joining Winston in the backfield on Sunday. He suffered a concussion last weekend and hasn’t practiced this week for the Bucs.

    LINE HISTORY: There’s been a 4-point swing on this spread. The Bucs opened as 2-point road chalk but the line went the other way after the Packers’ impressive showing against the Steelers.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bucs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
    *The over is 18-6 ATS in the Packers’ last 24 games.

    Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 41)

    The Colts have a terrible offensive line. The team has given up a league-worst 47 sacks including 10 to the Jags in Week 7. Jacksonville’s defense has the most QB takedowns this season with 41 in 11 games.

    LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 8.5-point faves and have been bet up to as high as 10-point chalk at some shops. The total has moved up a half point from 40.5 to 41.

    TRENDS:

    *The Jags are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against AFC South opponents.
    *The under is 4-1 in the Colts’ last five games.

    Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43.5)

    The Lions might have to get a little creative in how they move the chains against the Ravens. Detroit hasn’t had a dynamic ground game since Barry Sanders was juking defenders out of their cleats in the late ‘90s. The Lions own the third worst rushing attack in the league at 78.3 yards per game.

    That’s bad news because the Ravens’ specialty is their pass defense. Baltimore allows the second fewest yards through the air in the league at 189.9 behind only Jacksonville.

    LINE HISTORY: The line opened at a field goal spread and that’s where it’s stay all week with most shops tinkering with the juice rather than move up or down by a half point. The total opened as low as 40 and is now up to 43.

    TRENDS:

    *The over is 4-0 in the Lions’ last four games.
    *The over is 5-2 in the Ravens’ last seven games.

    Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5, 44)

    For a second time this season the Chargers are having major issues at the kicker position. The Bolts cut Younghoe Koo – their starting kicker out of training camp – a few weeks into the season and replaced him with veteran Steve Novak. But now Novak’s back is acting up and preventing him from making easy kicks as viewers witnessed on Thanksgiving when he a 35-yard attempt and an extra point try against Dallas.

    LA signed Travis Coon – the Browns kicker from 2015 – to the practice squad and there’s a good chance he’ll be promoted to the active roster to take kicks on Sunday against Cleveland.

    LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at 13 and there are a few locations that have moved the line up to the two-touchdown mark. The total is available offshore as high as 44 and as low as 42 in Vegas.

    TRENDS:

    *The Browns are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
    *The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
    *The under is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last six games.

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5, 48)

    Panthers coach Ron Rivera was up to a little bit of gamesmanship for this week’s game. When looking at the tape of his team’s previous encounter with the Saints, he noticed Drew Brees and the opposing offense were a little too quick with their hurry-up looks.

    He sent tape to the league office requesting this week’s game officials pay extra attention to any Saints players who are still moving when the ball is hiked. Maybe it’ll lead to one or two more false starts for New Orleans.

    LINE HISTORY: New Orleans opened as 4-point chalk and the bookies bumped the spread up to Saints -5. The total is staying put at 47.5 and 48.

    TRENDS:

    *The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
    *The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
    *The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Saints.

    New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-9, 42)

    The Oakland Raiders will be without their top two wide receivers on Sunday against the New York Giants. Michael Crabtree will serve his one-game suspension for his part in a brawl against the Broncos last weekend and Amari Cooper will not play because of a bad wheel and a concussion. Both injuries stem from a hit Cooper took in the Denver game.

    LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 7.5-point faves but moved up 9-point chalk after the Giants announced Geno Smith would be starting in place of Eli Manning. The total opened at 40 points and is now up to 42 at most locations.

    TRENDS:

    *The Giants are 0-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records.
    *The Raiders are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

    Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 44.5)

    There’s a reason Rams head coach Sean McVay earned the reputation as a quarterback whisperer. He whispers in their ears. Literally.

    McVay likes to get his offense to line of scrimmage early in the play clock so that he can survey the defense and communicate via headset to his starting quarterback, Jared Goff, about the pre-snap reads. He can do this until there is 15 seconds left on the play clock by rule and then Goff is on his own.

    Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms went on Pro Football Talk radio and said he thought this practice – while legal – was cheating. Maybe he’s just pissed he didn’t have a QB whisper as good as McVay for his five minutes in the league.

    LINE HISTORY: This spread opened with the Rams favored by seven points and that’s where most shops still have the line. There are some locations dropped down to Cards +6.5 while others stay at 7 and play with the juice.

    TRENDS:

    *The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
    *The Cards are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+5, 47)

    This is the biggest home underdog the Seahawks have been since Week 10 in the 2011 season when the Ravens were 7-point road favorites. Seattle won that game, won again later in that same year when the Eagles were 3-point away faves and won outright the next season when the Pats came to town and were giving 3.5 points.

    Seattle went 42 games at home before the next time oddsmakers would make the club a home underdog – which happened last week when the Falcons won and covered as 1-point away chalk.

    The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS at home this season.

    LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened with the Seahawks getting 3.5 points and the spread is now as high as Eagles -5.5. The total doesn’t seem to be budging off 47.5 and 47.

    TRENDS:

    *The Eagles are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
    *The over is 14-3 in the Eagles’ last 17 road games.

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    NFL

    Sunday, December 3


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Eagles at Seahawks
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Russell Wilson has a team-leading 401 yards rushing for Seattle, which receives little else from its backfield and faces Philadelphia's top-ranked run defense (65.1 yards per game).

    Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks (+5, 47)

    The Philadelphia Eagles haven't just been victorious during their nine-game winning streak, they've been downright dominant with 28-point routs in a franchise-record three consecutive contests. The Eagles can clinch the NFC East title as well as host a playoff game should they continue their destructive ways in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday night against the Seattle Seahawks.

    "For us, there's nothing to measure. We are our measuring stick," safety Malcolm Jenkins said on the heels of Philadelphia's stifling defense limiting Chicago to just 140 yards in Sunday's 31-3 romp at Lincoln Financial Field. Second-year quarterback Carson Wentz, who leads the NFL's top-ranked scoring unit (31.9 points per game), tossed three touchdown passes versus the Bears and has 22 of his NFL-best 28 in the last seven games to put his name firmly in the mix for NFL MVP honors. Included in that discussion is Seattle counterpart Russell Wilson, who is third in the league in passing touchdowns (23), tied for fourth in passing yards per game (275) and responsible for nearly 86 percent of his team's scrimmage yards. Wilson threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in his second straight game on Sunday to lead the Seahawks to their sixth win in eight outings, a 24-13 victory at San Francisco.

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Eagles (-6.5) - Seahawks (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Eagles -1.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Eagles opened the week as 3-point road faves and early money coming in on the road team pushed that number as high as +6 before fading back slightly to +5 at most books. The total hit the betting board at 48 and has been bet down to 47.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    Partly cloudy and 43 degrees at kickoff - negligible winds and a 10% chance of precipitation

    INJURY REPORT:


    Eagles - CB Patrick Robinson (Probable, Knee), DT Beau Allen (Probable, Knee), TE Trey Burton (Probable, Back), WR Alshon Jeffrey (Probable, Foot), DE Derek Barnett (Questionable, Groin), C Jason Kelce (Questionable, Ankle), LB Joe Walker (Questionable, Neck), CB Sidney Jones (Questionable, Achilles), K Caleb Sturgis (Out Indefinitely, Quadricep).

    Seahawks - LB Bobby Wagner (Probable, Hamstring), G Oday Aboushi (Probable, Shoulder), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), CB Shaquill Griffin (Probable, Concussion), RB Mike Davis (Probable, Groin), S Earl Thomas (Questionable, Heel), OT Duane Brown (Questionable, Ankle), LB Josh Forrest (Questionable, Foot), G Luke Joeckel (Questionable, Knee), DE Dion Jordan (Questionable, Neck), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Shoulder), TE Luke Willson (Questionable, Concussion), S Kam Chancellor (Out For Season, Neck), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), DT Malik McDowell (I-R, Concussion).

    ABOUT THE EAGLES (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS, 6-5 O/U):
    Wentz's two favorite targets are Alshon Jeffery and tight end Zach Ertz, who each have seven touchdown receptions in addition to six catches of at least 20 yards this season. Jeffery has found the end zone in four consecutive games and Ertz had a team-best 10 receptions for 103 yards last week while reeling in a touchdown pass for the sixth time in six contests. Running backs LeGarrette Blount, trade acquisition Jay Ajayi and rookie Corey Clement pace the league's second-ranked rushing offense (147.5 yards per game). Defensive end Brandon Graham has three sacks in his last four games, with his team-leading and career-best seventh on Sunday triggering a $250,000 escalator for his 2018 salary.

    ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, 4-7 O/U):
    Tight end Jimmy Graham leads the NFL with eight red-zone touchdown receptions, with each of them coming in his last seven games. Graham has gained the trust of Wilson, who has seen traditional favorite target Doug Baldwin limited to just two catches in each of his last two outings. Linebacker Bobby Wagner has been nursing an ailing hamstring during the last few weeks, but the injury has done little to slow him down during games. Wagner had an interception last week and recorded eight of his NFL third-best 100 tackles, marking the sixth consecutive season that he has reached triple digits in that department.

    TRENDS:


    * Eagles are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.

    * Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

    * Seahawks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

    * Over is 14-3 in Eagles last 17 road games.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road chalk Eagles at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is getting 60 percent of the totals action.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    NFL

    Sunday, December 3



    ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that the Giants may fire head coach Ben McAdoo within 24 hours of today's game vs Raiders - his time is "coming to an end". GM Jerry Reese also on the hot seat.
    Giants +8.5 @ OAK today.


    Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Jets.
    NYJ +3


    WR Josh Gordon WILL play for the Browns today @ the Chargers and will be "all systems go" with no limitations.
    Browns currently +13.5


    RB Adrian Peterson (neck) is still a game-time decision but is considered a "long shot" to play today vs. Rams.
    Cardinals currently +7 at home.

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Six most popular picks for Week 13 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) Pittsburgh Steelers -5 (534)

    5) New England Patriots -8.5 (605)- W

    4) Minnesota Vikings +3 (744)- W

    3) New Orleans Saints -4 (829)- W

    2) Seattle Seahawks +6 (880)- W

    1) Green Bay Packers +1.5 (1,016)- W

    Season record of top 6 picks: 37-40


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Saints 31, Panthers 21— New Orleans won its 9th game in last 10 tries, sweeping season series with Panthers; they lead NFC South by a game over Carolina, two over Atlanta- they play Falcons two of next three weeks. Saints scored 30+ points in four of last five games. Carolina ran ball for only 112 yards, after running it for 213 yards/week in previous three games.

    Ravens 44, Lions 20— Baltimore is 3-0 since its bye, winning by 23-7-24 points; five of their seven wins are vs backup-type QB’s, but they also KO’d Stafford here with a hand injury. Ravens are now +20 in turnovers in their seven wins, -6 in their five losses. Detroit has run ball for only 65.3 ypg the last three weeks- they’re two games out of the playoff picture now.

    49ers 15, Bears 14— Niners’ kicker Robbie Gould is the Bears’ all-time leading scoring leader; he kicked five FG’s here to beat Chicago on an oddly-warm December day in the Windy City. QB Garoppolo wins his first 49ers start; he is 3-0 as an NFL starting QB. Tarik Cohen ran a punt back for a TD for Chicago, a great highlight-film type run. 49ers were one of four teams Sunday not to score an offensive TD; other three lost, by 20-5-36 points.

    Vikings 14, Falcons 9— Minnesota won its last eight games, covered last seven; Case Keenum might be MVP of the freakin’ league. Vikings have another tough road game next week, agains the Panthers in Charlotte. Falcons were held to 17 or less points in their five losses- they scored 23+ in all their wins- they scored 27-34-34 points in last three games before this one.

    Patriots 23, Bills 3— New England won its last eight games, covered last six; Patriots’ opponents started their last 102 drives in their own territory, the longest-such streak in over a decade. Pats have started 15 drives in enemy territory this season. Tyrod Taylor got hurt late in this game, which means Nathan Peterman probably gets another start against Indy at home next week.

    Dolphins 35, Broncos 9— Denver’s offense is so pathetic, they were outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense in this game. Broncos have now lost eight games in a row (0-8 vs spread); they’ve lost field position battle by 11+ yards in five of their last six games, which is really bad. As bad a QB as Geno Smith is, he’s head and shoulders above any of Denver’s QB’s. Broncos are 0-6 on the road, 0-4 as a road underdog. I can picture Eli Manning playing there next season.

    Titans 24, Texans 13— Tennessee has won six of its last seven games; they were headed for yet another tight win, leading 17-13 when they stopped Houston in their territory with 1:08 left, but then Derrick Henry broke free for a 75-yard TD with 0:46 left to give Titan backers the cover. Texans are now 1-5 in Savage starts, though Savage did pass for 365 yards in this game.

    Jaguars 30, Colts 10— Indy lost six of last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with road losses by 37-28-1-14-20 points, with win at Watson-less Houston. Jaguars were 9-15 on third down in this game, after being 12-50 in their previous three games. Colts lost six of their last seven games; hard to believe they won’t have a new coach next season.

    Packers 26, Buccaneers 20— Packers’ RB Aaron Jones ran 20 yards for a walk-off TD in OT, on his first carry of the game. Tampa lost seven of its last eight games; teams really aren’t going to want to do Hard Knocks anymore- Jeff Fisher got fired last year, Bucs are 4-8 this year after their coach/GM did lot of talking this summer about how great Tampa Bay’s talent is. Packers are back at .500 and play Cleveland this week; they’re not dead yet.

    Jets 38, Chiefs 31— Kansas City started season 5-0, is now in a 3-way tie atop AFC West at 6-6. Alex Smith threw for 366 yards, four TD’s in a losing cause- not often an NFL team averages over 10 yards per play and loses. Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties for this game, and that helped, but it didn’t help KC’s defense. Chiefs led this game 14-0 after 4:24, but lost in Swamp Stadium for second time in three weeks.

    Chargers 19, Browns 10— Josh Gordon caught four balls for 85 yards in his first NFL game in three years, but UNTIL CLEVELAND DRAFTS A QB, they’re still going to be dreadful. Chargers have now won six of their last seven games and are tied for first place with four games left. Bolts are 28-43 on third down in their last three games.

    Rams 32, Cardinals 16— Rams’ MLB/defensive QB Alex Ogletree had a pick-6 early in this game, then left game with hyperextended elbow— he didn’t play in second half. Rams’ 16-0 lead had shrunk to 16-13 late in 2nd quarter, but as usual, LA played really well in second half and won going away. Todd Gurley had 158 all-purpose yards and the special teams were terrific.

    Raiders 24, Giants 17— Giants made a 52-yard FG with 1:38 left for the backdoor cover; if you wagered on the Giants here, good for you, but it was their first game since 2004 that someone other than Eli Manning started at QB. Have to keep in mind that Raiders played without their top two WR’s (Cooper/Crabtree). Three of Oakland’s last four games are on road, including games at Chiefs/Chargers- they’re tied for first place with both of them.

    Seahawks 24, Eagles 10— Win puts Seattle back in playoff picture; they were outgained 425-310 in this game, but Wentz’s fumble near goal line was fatal blow for Eagles here. Philly has 4-game lead in NFC East with four weeks left, so not lot of urgency for them, other than home field/bye in playoffs. This loss snapped 9-game winning streak for Iggles. Seattle was 6-12 on 3rd down in this game, breaking a recent trend of Philly’s defense dominating on third down.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-04-2017 at 03:05 PM.

  15. #15
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    NFL

    Monday, December 4


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Steelers at Bengals
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5, 43)

    The Cincinnati Bengals have won two in a row to stay within striking distance of the final playoff berth in the AFC, but they will be taking a major step up in class against a bitter rival on Monday night. Coming off wins over a pair of last-place teams in Denver and Cleveland, the Bengals will host the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers.

    Cincinnati, which entered the weekend one game behind sixth-place Baltimore and Buffalo in the chase for the final wild card, was dominated by the Steelers 29-14 in Pittsburgh in Week 7. "It's another game, but it's Pittsburgh, and they're leading our division," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "They beat us up there. They're coming here, and it's a big football game for us because we don't get any more do-overs." The Steelers, who own the tiebreaker with New England for the top record in the conference, extended their winning streak to six games by rallying for a 31-28 victory over Green Bay last week. Pittsburgh has won 10 consecutive prime-time games and has beaten the Bengals five times in a row while winning its last four visits to Cincinnati (playoffs included).

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Steelers (-4) - Bengals (1.5) + home field (-3) = Bengals -0.5.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Steelers opened as high as 6.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the hometown Bengals brought that line down to +4.5. The total hit the betting board at 43 and briefly was bet up half-point before returning to the opening number, where it currently sits.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    57 degrees and overcast throughout the game - winds 14 - 15 MPH with 18% chance of fourth quarter precipitation

    INJURY REPORT:


    Steelers - LB James Harrison (Probable, Back), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Probable, Hamstring), WR Antonio Brown (Questionable, Toe), S Mike Mitchell (Questionable, Ankle), LB Ryan Shazier (Questionable, Ankle), CB Cameron Sutton (Questionable, Hamstring), TE Vance McDonald (Out, Ankle).

    Bengals - TE Tyler Kroft (Questionable, Wrist), OT Cedric Ogbuehi (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Vincent Rey (Questionable, Hamstring), S Shawn Williams (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nick Vigil (Questionable, Ankle), QB Jeff Driskel (Questionable, Thumb).

    ABOUT THE STEELERS (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS, 3-8 O/U):
    Ben Roethlisberger, an Ohio native who is 23-4 in his home state, tossed four touchdowns for the second straight week and threw for a season-high 351 yards against Green Bay. Two of those scoring passes went to wideout Antonio Brown, who had 10 catches for 169 yards and leads the NFL in in receptions (80) and yards (1,195). Running back Le'Veon Bell, the league leader in rushing with 981 yards, rushed for 134 yards on 35 carries in the first meeting versus the Bengals and amassed 95 yards on the ground and 12 receptions a week ago. Pittsburgh's defense was gashed for three long touchdown passes by Green Bay, but it allows only 17.5 points per game and ranks No. 2 in sacks with 38.

    ABOUT THE BENGALS (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U):
    Cincinnati has scored 30 points twice this season -- both times against the winless Browns -- as rookie running back Joe Mixon finally showed some sizzle by rushing for a season-high 114 yards and a TD and catching three passes for 51 yards. Andy Dalton has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions since the loss to the Steelers, when he was sacked four times, picked off twice and the Bengals managed a meager 19 total yards in the second half. Wideout A.J. Green has a team-high 809 receiving yards -- more than double any other Bengals player -- for an offense that ranks 32nd overall in total offense (274.3 yards) and 31st in rushing (75.6). Cincinnati is third in sacks (33) and gives up 19.5 points per game.

    TRENDS:


    * Steelers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

    * Under is 10-1 in Steelers last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

    * Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 Monday games.

    * Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

    * Steelers are 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Cincinnati.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road chalk Steelers at a rate of 67 percent and the Over is getting 65 percent of the totals action.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-04-2017 at 03:07 PM.

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