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Thread: CFL Trends and Indexes - Grey Cup (Sun. November 26)

  1. #1
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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Grey Cup (Sun. November 26)

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, November 26

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Grey Cup Championship
    David Schwab

    Playoff Results | Grey Cup History

    TD Place Stadium in Ottawa is the site of this year’s CFL Grey Cup Championship between the East Division’s Toronto Argonauts and the West’s Calgary Stampeders. Kickoff this Sunday is set for 6:00 p.m. (ET) with ESPN2 carrying the national broadcast in the United States.

    Toronto punched its first ticket to the title game since 2012 with Sunday’s 25-21 victory against Saskatchewan, which was a crossover playoff team from the West. The Argonauts covered as three-point home favorites with the total staying UNDER the 52-point closing line.

    Calgary is making its second-straight appearance in the Grey Cup with a 32-28 victory at home against Edmonton, but it could not cover as a five-point favorite. The total went OVER the 51 ˝-point line in that game.

    Sunday, Nov. 26

    Toronto Argonauts (10-9 SU, 9-10 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (14-4-1 SU, 9-9-1 ATS)

    Point-spread: Calgary -7
    Total: 53

    Game Overview

    The Argonauts started this season with just four straight-up victories in their first 11 games while going a costly 3-8 against the spread, but it is all about how you finish when it comes to winning championships. With last Sunday’s win and cover, Toronto is now 6-2 both SU and ATS in its last eight games. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in seven of those eight games.

    One of the biggest reasons for this current run has been the play of veteran quarterback Ricky Ray and an offense that has averaged 31.9 points a game over the span of its last eight outings. Ray finished the regular season ranked second in the CFL in total passing yards (5,546) and he was tied for second in passing touchdowns with 28. In last Sunday’s win against Saskatchewan, he completed 71.8 percent of his 39 passing attempts for 266 yards and a score.

    Calgary was by far the most dominant team in the league for most of the season in a run that included a SU 11-game win streak. This was also a great team to bet on during that run at 8-2-1 ATS. Unexpected poor play coupled with a number of key injuries on both sides of the ball led to a stunning three-game losing streak (SU and ATS) to close out the regular season. With last week’s tight victory, it has now failed to cover in its five games.

    The Stampeders did enough to get past Edmonton in the division finals, but it is hard to say if they have returned to that dominant form heading into Sunday’s title game. The one good sign in last week’s victory was the play on offense. After posting a combined 32 points in that three-game losing streak, Calgary crossed the 30-point line in scoring for the first time since late September. Bo Levi Mitchell completed 20-of-32 passing attempts for 228 yards and a score, while the ground game added another 182 rushing yards to the winning cause.

    Betting Trends

    -- The Argonauts are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a SU winning record, but they improve to 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.

    -- The Stampeders are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five Grey Cup Championship Games. The total has gone OVER in their last four postseason games.

    -- Calgary won both meetings this season SU by a combined 33 points to extend its current winning streak against Toronto to eight games. The Stampeders have covered ATS in their last five games against the Argonauts in this inter-division series and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings.

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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Grey Cup


    Sunday, November 26

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    CALGARY (14 - 4 - 1) vs. TORONTO (10 - 9) - 11/26/2017, 6:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
    CALGARY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 5-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 6-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Grey Cup


    (@ Ottawa)
    Toronto (10-9) vs Calgary (14-4-1)— Stampeders started their season with a tie at Ottawa, hope to finish it with Grey Cup title on same field. Calgary last won Grey Cup in 2014; Argonauts last won it in 2012- Stampeders lost title game to Ottawa LY. Calgary’s win LW snapped 3-game losing streak as they played out regular season. Toronto won six of its last eight games, with both losses by 3 points- they scored 29-40-25 points in winning last three games. Stampeders won their last eight games with Toronto, sweeping Argonauts this year, 41-24 on road, 23-7 at home- both games were in August. Over is 6-2 in last eight Toronto games, 1-3 in Calgary’s last four games.




    CFL

    Grey Cup


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    Trend Report
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    Sunday, November 26

    CALGARY @ TORONTO
    Calgary is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
    Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games


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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Grey Cup


    Sunday, November 26

    Calgary @ Toronto

    Game 655-656
    November 26, 2017 @ 6:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    120.577
    Toronto
    111.156
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 9 1/2
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 7
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-7); Under

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    Grey Cup betting betting preview and odds: Stampeders vs. Argonauts

    Toronto is 16-6 in Grey Cup games while Calgary is 7-8, while the Stampeders won both regular season meetings with the Argonauts by an average margin of 16.5 points

    Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts (+7, 53.5)

    The Calgary Stampeders face the Toronto Argonauts in the 105th edition of the Grey Cup on Sunday in Ottawa. The Stampeders finished the regular season with a league-best 13 victories before downing the Edmonton Eskimos 32-28 victory in the Western Final, and hope to take care of unfinished business after dropping a 39-33 overtime decision to the Ottawa Redblacks as double-digit favourites in the title game last year.

    "It was like a nightmare and I had to deal with it for a long time after that," Calgary running back Jerome Messam told reporters. "It's a sucky feeling as you work all season and offseason for it and it was right there for us but we let it slip away." The Argonauts won their last two regular-season games to clinch their first division title in four years before knocking off the Saskatchewan Roughriders 25-21 in the Eastern Final only one year removed from a 5-13 record. Coach Marc Trestman and Ricky Ray have been the architects of the stunning turnaround and the veteran quarterback hopes to put the finishing touches on an incredible season by winning the Grey Cup for the fourth time in his career. "I know what the week is all about and how to balance your time," Ray told reporters. "I can draw off that experience… there's a lot of stuff happening that is different than regular season games."

    TV:
    6:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS, ESPN2

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Stampeders opened as 7-point chalk at most shops and at the end of the week it remains at the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 53 and can be found as high as 53.5.

    WEATHER REPORT:


    29 degrees at game time with 7 mph winds and a 23% chance of snow


    INJURY REPORT:


    Stampeders - DL Cordarro Law (Questionable, Ankle), DB Shaq Richardson (Questionable, Knee), RB Anthony Woodson (Questionable, Undisclosed), DB Tunde Adeleke (Questionable, Undisclosed), OL Pierre Lavertu (Questionable, Neck), LB Maleki Harris (Questionable, Undisclosed).

    Argonauts - DE Eric Martin (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), DL Matthew Carson (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), OL Mason Woods (Questionable, Undisclosed), K Ronnie Pfeffer (Questionable, Undisclosed), DL Daryl Waud (Questionable, Foot), DT Alan-Michael Cash (Questionable, Knee), OL J'Michael Deane (Questionable, Concussion)

    ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (10-9 SU, 9-10 ATS, 9-10 O/U):
    Ray went 28-of-39 through the air for 266 yards and a touchdown in the thrilling win over Saskatchewan to move into fourth place on the CFL's all-time postseason passing yards list with 3,372. James Wilder Jr. continued his stellar play down the stretch as the rookie running back accounted for 104 yards from scrimmage against the Roughriders to give him 1,245 total yards and five touchdowns in his last seven games. Terrance Plummer returned an interception 39 yards for his first career touchdown while Shawn Lemon recorded three sacks as a finally healthy Toronto defence forced four turnovers.

    ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (14-4-1 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, 9-10 O/U):
    Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 228 yards and a touchdown as Calgary did most of its damage on the ground against Edmonton. Roy Finch accounted for 233 all-purpose yards, including 81 rushing yards, and a touchdown while Messam added 115 total yards and a score against the Roughriders. Defensive back Tunde Adeleke suffered an ankle sprain in the first quarter and is questionable for the Grey Cup while defensive end Cordarro Law could make his first appearance of 2017 after missing the regular season because of a leg injury with Ja'Gared Davis and James Vaughters banged up.

    TRENDS:


    * Stampeders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Grey Cup games.

    * Stampeders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

    * Argonauts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

    * Under is 6-1 in Stampeders last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

    * Stampeders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the East Division champion Argos at a rate of 59 percent and the Over is getting 65 percent of the totals action.

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