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  1. #1
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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 ( Thur., Nov. 16 - Mon., Nov. 20 )

    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 16 - Monday, November 20

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Last edited by Udog; 11-20-2017 at 12:35 AM.

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    NFL opening line report: Eagles open as 3.5-point road favorites vs. Cowboys
    Patrick Everson

    “No one would’ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are.”

    The team at the top of the NFC East is not the one most people expected through 10 weeks of the season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for a key clash involving that team, along with three other Week 11 games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)

    Philadelphia is certainly one of the top surprise teams of the year, piling up seven consecutive wins en route to the best record in the NFL. The Eagles (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) are also coming off their bye week, after dismantling Denver 51-23 as a 7-point favorite in Week 9.

    Dallas, which won the NFC East last year with a 13-3 record, can’t seem to regain that form, and it didn’t get any easier in Week 10 without the now-suspended Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys were 3.5-point underdogs at Atlanta and got rolled 27-7.

    “No one would’ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are,” Cooley said. “Philadelphia has made leaping strides this season and is well above the Cowboys in our power ratings. As we all know, JerryWorld doesn’t exactly provide a home-field edge, so the Eagles deserved to be above the field-goal threshold. However, I do expect this will close at a field goal.”

    In fact, late Sunday night, the line had already ducked down to 3.

    Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

    Pittsburgh was among the preseason favorites in the Super Bowl futures book, but hasn’t looked much the part this season. Yet the Steelers are still 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS), after rallying from a 17-3 deficit to post a 20-17 victory at Indianapolis as a 10.5-pint chalk.

    Like the Steelers, Tennessee (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) has won four in a row (1-2-1 ATS). The Titans got a last-minute touchdown Sunday to top Cincinnati 24-20, though they fell just short at the betting window as 4.5-point favorites.

    “Marcus Mariota looked like his old self this week, while the Steelers slept-walked through an ugly affair,” Cooley said. “Still, we know this Pittsburgh offense can explode any week, and we know that the public is going to back the Steelers through and through. We’ll likely see some serious sharp money on the road ‘dog.”

    New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (no line)

    New England is definitely rounding into form heading into this neutral-site clash in Mexico City. The Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) flattened Denver 41-16 in the Sunday nighter, easily cashing as a 7-point road chalk.

    Oakland had a bye in Week 10 and is hoping to climb back to .500 in what many observers thought would be a much better season. The Raiders (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) edged Miami 27-24 in Week 9, pushing as a 3-point road favorite.

    Since the Patriots were in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on the opening line until Monday.

    “If everything goes accordingly, we’ll look to make the Pats around 6-point chalk,” Cooley said. “Something just isn’t right with the Raiders these days.”

    Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

    In Week 10, Atlanta finally looked a little more like the team that went to the Super Bowl last year. The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) pulled away from Dallas in the second half for a 27-7 victory laying 3.5 points at home.

    Seattle comes into this Monday night matchup with a little more rest, having played the Week 10 Thursday nighter. In that contest, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) held off Arizona 22-16 to push as a 6-point fave. However, Seattle lost superstar cornerback Richard Sherman for the rest of the year, due to a ruptured Achilles tendon.

    “We’re going to find out very quickly how much the Seahawks miss Sherman. My guess is a ton,” Cooley said. “They already had ample offensive deficiencies, and now there’s a gaping hole in the secondary. If not for Russell Wilson, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL. On the other side, is Atlanta finally hitting its stride?”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:46 PM.

  3. #3
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    Wiseguys are advising that these Week 11 NFL lines are going to move

    New England is now tied with the Steelers for the best record in the AFC at 7-2, after showing no mercy on Sunday against Denver.

    Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

    Game to bet now

    New England at Oakland (+5.5)

    Lots of commentators would like to take back what they said about the Patriots when the Bill Belichick-led club was treading water at 2-2. New England is now tied with the Steelers for the best record in the AFC at 7-2, after showing no mercy on Sunday against Denver, and now will get the benefit of a neutral field (Mexico City) in a “road” game against the Raiders.

    It’s good to be the king, no? And the Patriots are doing this (five straight wins, three straight covers) with several key players out. It doesn’t seem to matter, as long as their 40-year-old quarterback is upright. NE will start to attract lots of money as the season winds down, and anything under seven is an attractive number.

    Game to wait on

    Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota (-2.5)

    It used to be you could pencil in the Packers to win the NFC North, but Aaron Rodgers’s injury has opened a large door for the Vikings, and Minny has taken full advantage with five straight wins.

    The Vikes have a great opportunity to nail down the division over a five-day period starting Sunday against the Rams. A win, coupled with a victory over Detroit on Thanksgiving, could just about lock down the North.

    And they’re doing it with re-tread QB Case Keenum, who threw for 302 yards and four TDs in the Vikings’ win over Washington on Sunday. If you like the Rams in this one, hang on because bettors will probably jump at 2.5 and some lines will be bet up to a full field goal.

    Total to watch

    Tennessee at Pittsburgh (44)

    Huge game for both division leaders. The Steelers need to keep pace with the red-hot Patriots ahead of their mid-December showdown in Pittsburgh, and the Titans are desperate to get the Jaguars off their backs in a surprising AFC South race (they’re both 6-3).

    While Pittsburgh and Tennessee are both solid and winning, neither has had an offensive burst in the last month. The Titans are averaging under 20 points in their last three games, while Pittsburgh has averaged 22 in its last four.

    Turnovers decide a lot of games in the NFL – especially close games – so expect both teams to keep things pretty conservative in this one. Even at a moderate number like 44, the Under deserves a hard look in this one.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:47 PM.

  4. #4
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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 11


    Thursday, November 16

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    TENNESSEE (6 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 2) - 11/16/2017, 8:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 90-63 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Sunday, November 19

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    DETROIT (5 - 4) at CHICAGO (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    DETROIT is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
    DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    DETROIT is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
    DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    KANSAS CITY (6 - 3) at NY GIANTS (1 - 8) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 36-63 ATS (-33.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 33-58 ATS (-30.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) at MIAMI (4 - 5) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
    TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
    MIAMI is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
    MIAMI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    MIAMI is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    BALTIMORE (4 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 4) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 184-130 ATS (+41.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    LA RAMS (7 - 2) at MINNESOTA (7 - 2) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 181-227 ATS (-68.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 181-227 ATS (-68.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 82-116 ATS (-45.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 129-179 ATS (-67.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 140-179 ATS (-56.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 66-95 ATS (-38.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    ARIZONA (4 - 5) at HOUSTON (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    JACKSONVILLE (6 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 9) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    WASHINGTON (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 2) - 11/19/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
    NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BUFFALO (5 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
    LA CHARGERS is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    CINCINNATI (3 - 6) at DENVER (3 - 6) - 11/19/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CINCINNATI is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    CINCINNATI is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    DENVER is 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at OAKLAND (4 - 5) - 11/19/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    OAKLAND is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 75-103 ATS (-38.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    PHILADELPHIA (8 - 1) at DALLAS (5 - 4) - 11/19/2017, 8:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Monday, November 20

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    ATLANTA (5 - 4) at SEATTLE (6 - 3) - 11/20/2017, 8:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:48 PM.

  5. #5
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    NFL

    Week 11


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, November 16

    TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH
    Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
    Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home


    Sunday, November 19

    DETROIT @ CHICAGO
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
    Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
    Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

    ARIZONA @ HOUSTON
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
    Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home

    LA RAMS @ MINNESOTA
    LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams

    WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS
    Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Washington

    JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND
    Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 10 games at home
    Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

    KANSAS CITY @ NY GIANTS
    Kansas City is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
    NY Giants is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City

    TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI
    Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

    BUFFALO @ LA CHARGERS
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo

    CINCINNATI @ DENVER
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Denver
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

    NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing New England

    PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS
    Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
    Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games


    Monday, November 20

    ATLANTA @ SEATTLE
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
    Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:49 PM.

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    NFL ATS Leaders thru Week 10:

    t1. Eagles 7-2 ATS
    t1. Saints 7-2 ATS
    t3. LARams 6-3 ATS
    t3. Vikings 6-3 ATS
    t3. Chiefs 6-3 ATS



    NFL ATS Losers thru Week 10:

    32. Browns 2-7 ATS
    t31. Bucs 2-6-1 ATS
    t31. Broncos 2-6-1 ATS
    t31. Cardinals 2-6-1 ATS
    t28. Giants 3-6 ATS
    t28. Redskins 3-6 ATS
    t28. Falcons 3-6 ATS
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:50 PM.

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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11
    Monty Andrews

    The Jacksonville Jaguars have intercepted opponents 11 times this season and have 19 takeaways on the season. No one has turned the ball over more than the Cleveland Browns this season.

    Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2, 38)

    Ravens' ruthless pass rush vs. Packers' poor O-line play

    You might see the Ravens sitting in the middle of the pack in sacks (22) and wonder how this pass rush could be considered among the elite. A closer look reveals that Baltimore ranks 12th in sack rate (7.24 percent) and has forced a league-high 13 interceptions, leading to an NFL-best 270 interception return yards and two returns for touchdowns. Baltimore is coming off a three-sack effort in last week's 23-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans.

    The Packers have already lost one quarterback to injury this season, and will need to do a better job of protecting the backup. Green Bay is one of only six teams to have already surrendered at least 30 sacks, and its 8.7-percent sack rate against is fifth-worst in the NFL.

    Brett Hundley was taken down three times for a total of 30 yards lost in last week's victory over Chicago, and could be in for a long afternoon if the Ravens are able to exert their pass-rush dominance over Green Bay's suspect O-line.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (+7.5, 37.5)

    Jaguars' ball-thieving prowess vs. Browns' turnover troubles

    Jacksonville has reeled off three wins in a row, and boasts one of the league's top point differentials at plus-92. Winning turnover battles has played a bit part in the Jaguars' resurgence, and they'll look to continue that success against a Cleveland team struggling to hang onto the ball.

    One year has made all the difference in the world for Jacksonville, in a variety of areas. Turnovers is near the top of that list; after finishing with an abysmal minus-16 turnover differential last season - only the New York Jets and Chicago Bears fared worse - the Jaguars have completed a dramatic 180-degree turn, coming into this week ranked fifth with a plus-7 differential.
    Jacksonville has forced a whopping 18 turnovers (11 interceptions, seven fumble recoveries); only the Los Angeles Rams have more.

    Things aren't nearly as rosy for the woeful Browns, who once again own one of the league's worst turnover ratios. Cleveland comes into Week 11 with a dismal minus-13 turnover differential, ahead of only the Denver Broncos. Interceptions have been the biggest issue for the Browns; they've been picked off 18 times already in 2017, five more than the next closest team.

    Look for that total - and the overall differential - to climb against one of the top secondaries in the league.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 39.5)

    Bengals' red-zone rejections vs. Broncos' bungling down-field offense

    Two of the league's most disappointing teams face off in Colorado this weekend as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Denver Broncos. Both teams had high hopes coming into the season, but injuries and ineffectiveness on both rosters have them carrying identical 3-6 records into this one. Denver's biggest problem has been an inability to convert red-zone visits into points - and it just so happens that Cincinnati, despite its struggles, has been one of the league's top teams at preventing red-zone scores.

    Only the Los Angeles Chargers have been better at keeping opponents from turning red-zone opportunities into touchdowns than the Bengals, who have limited foes to a 38.7-percent success rate on the season.

    It's a dramatic improvement from the 51-percent TD rate opponents boasted vs. Cincinnati a season ago. The Bengals are also allowing just 1.3 touchdowns on red-zone visits per game so far this season, the eighth-best rate in the NFL.

    Denver's red-zone offense was an area of concern last season, when the Broncos produced touchdowns on just 46.8 percent of their trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line - the fifth-worst rate in the league. But things are even worse in 2017, with Denver scoring TDs on 43.3 percent of red-zone visits; only Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have been less prolific.

    An inconsistent running game and terrible QB play have contributed - and if neither improves Sunday, expect more frustration in the Mile High State.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 48.5)

    Cowboys' dismal third-down D vs. Eagles' drive-extension mastery

    The marquee matchup of Week 11 pits the NFC-leading Eagles against the rival Cowboys, who struggled mightily without standout offensive lineman Tyron Smith last week.

    Dallas yielded eight sacks in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and need a win this week to remain in the hunt for the NFC East crown. But the red-hot Eagles have won seven consecutive games and have a significant advantage against the Cowboys when it comes to third-down situations.

    Philadelphia has done just about everything well so far this season, which explains why they're the class of the conference through 10 weeks. But the Eagles have been particularly good when it comes to converting third downs, doing so at a 46.8-percent clip so far - behind only the Rams and Carolina Panthers. It's a major reason why Philadelphia ranks second behind the Panthers in time of possession, controlling the football for an average of 33 minutes, 12 seconds per game.

    The Cowboys' problems on the offensive side of the ball - in addition to Smith, they're without franchise running back Ezekiel Elliott due to suspension - have garnered the majority of the headlines. But bettors shouldn't ignore the fact that the Dallas defense has allowed teams to extend drives or score on 43.5 percent of their third-down opportunities - the sixth-worst rate in the NFL.

    The Eagles are one of the most dangerous teams in football - and the Cowboys can't afford to let them hold on to the ball.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:51 PM.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    NFL trends with Week 11 approaching……

    — Tennessee is 7-15 vs spread in its last 22 games as a road underdog.

    — Washington covered once in its last six games.

    — Dolphins are 2-10-2 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

    — New England is 17-8 vs spread in its last 25 games.

    — Philadelphia covered its last six games.

    — Seattle is 3-7-1 vs spread in its last eleven games

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 11


    Thursday, November 16

    Tennessee @ Pittsburgh

    Game 311-312
    November 16, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    133.672
    Pittsburgh
    134.463
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 1
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 7 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (+7 1/2); Under



    Sunday, November 19

    Detroit @ Chicago

    Game 451-452
    November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    134.037
    Chicago
    133.025
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 1
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 3
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (+3); Under

    Kansas City @ NY Giants


    Game 453-454
    November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    138.007
    NY Giants
    120.950
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 17
    50
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 10
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-10); Over

    Tampa Bay @ Miami


    Game 455-456
    November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    122.884
    Miami
    129.230
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 6 1/2
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Miami
    by 1
    40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (-1); Over

    Baltimore @ Green Bay


    Game 457-458
    November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    135.490
    Green Bay
    130.409
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 5
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 2
    38
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (-2); Over

    LA Rams @ Minnesota


    Game 459-460
    November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    138.039
    Minnesota
    145.046
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 7
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 2
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-2); Over

    Arizona @ Houston


    Game 461-462
    November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    130.335
    Houston
    128.392
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Arizona
    by 2
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 1
    38 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Arizona
    (+1); Over

    Washington @ New Orleans


    Game 465-466
    November 19, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    136.788
    New Orleans
    143.248
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 6 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 8
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+8); Over

    Buffalo @ LA Chargers


    Game 467-468
    November 19, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    133.628
    LA Chargers
    130.011
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Buffalo
    by 3 1/2
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 5
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    (+5); Under

    Cincinnati @ Denver


    Game 469-470
    November 19, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    122.039
    Denver
    129.527
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 7 1/2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 2 1/2
    39
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-2 1/2); Over

    New England @ Oakland


    Game 471-472
    November 19, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    140.067
    Oakland
    128.587
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 11 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 6 1/2
    54
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-6 1/2); Under

    Philadelphia @ Dallas


    Game 473-474
    November 19, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    136.700
    Dallas
    141.285
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 4 1/2
    58
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 4
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+4); Over



    Monday, November 20

    Atlanta @ Seattle

    Game 475-476
    November 20, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    136.272
    Seattle
    136.016
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    Even
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 3
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+3); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:53 PM.

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 11


    Thursday's game
    Titans (6-3) @ Steelers (7-2)— Steelers are quiet 7-2; they won last four games (3-1 vs spread), are 2-1 as a home favorite, with wins by 17-15 points and a loss to Jaguars. Tennessee won its last four games, last three by 3-3-4 points; Mariota is banged up (shoulder/ankle)- check status. Titans are 2-2 on road, losing at Houston, Miami, beating Jaguars/Browns- they were favored in 3 of those 4 games. Steelers won four of last six series games; Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to Steel City, losing by 27-3-21 points. AFC North favorites are 4-7 vs spread outside the division, 3-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 7-4, 4-3 on road. Over is 6-2 in Titans’ last eight games; under is 8-1 in Steeler games this season.

    Sunday's games
    Lions (5-4) @ Bears (3-6)— Detroit won seven of last eight series games; last four were all decided by 4 or less points. Lions won three of last four visits to Chicago, winning by 2-6-4 points. Detroit won its last two games, scoring 30-38 points; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in New Orleans- their offense gave up three TD’s that day. Detroit is 2-3 if they score less than 30 points. Bears lost last two games, scoring two TD”s on last 22 drives; Chicago is 2-3 at home, 4-0 as a home underdog- dogs covered all five of their home games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-12-2 vs spread. Four of last five Detroit games went over total; under is 6-3 in Chicago games. Bears stayed under their team total in seven of nine games.

    Chiefs (6-3) @ Giants (1-8)— Chiefs lost three of last four games after a 5-0 start; they won/covered their last three post-bye games. KC is 3-2 on road, but lost last two away games, at Oakland/Dallas. Chiefs are 2-1 as a road favorite this season. Giants lost last three games, allowing 82 points in last two games; they’re 0-4 at home, scoring 14 ppg- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog this year- their last three losses were by 17-34-10 points. Giants are 10-3 in this series, winning all six matchups played here- KC won last meeting 31-7 in ’13. AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 vs spread outside the division; NC East home teams are 5-8, 1-3 as home dogs. Over is 5-2-2 in Chief games this season, 5-2 in last seven Giant games.

    Buccaneers (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-5)— Short week for Miami, after its dismal loss in Charlotte Monday night. Dolphins lost last three games, are 2-1 at home, with three games decided by total of 12 points. Bucs snapped 5-game skid with 15-10 win over Jets; they scored total of 28 points in last three games. Tampa Bay won four of last five meetings, with three of less four decided by 3 or less points. Bucs lost three of their four visits to Miami. NFC South underdogs are 3-4-1 vs spread outside the division, 2-2-1 on road. AFC East favorites are 6-4-1, 3-3-1 at home. This game was supposed to be in Week 1, but was moved here because of the hurricanes. Last three Tampa Bay games stayed under total; last four Miami games went over.

    Ravens (4-5) @ Packers (5-4)— Baltimore lost three of last four games, with two losses by 3 points; they’re 2-2 SU in true road games. Ravens are 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a road favorite. Baltimore is 12-3 SU/ATS in last 15 post-bye games. Green Bay lost three of last four games; Hundley got his first NFL win Sunday. 7 of last 10 Baltimore TD’s were either scored by the defense, or on drives of 42 or less yards. Ravens are 1-4 vs Green Bay, with only win 48-3 in ’05; they’re 0-3 in Lambeau, losing by 18-8-13 points. AFC North non-divisional faves are 4-7 vs spread, 1-3 on road; NFC North home favorites are 4-2 vs spread. Last five Baltimore games went over total; six of last eight Packer games went over- lot of that was with Rodgers playing.

    Rams (7-2) @ Vikings (7-2)— Case Keenum was 7-7 as Rams’ starting QB in 2015-16; he was replaced by Goff in Week 10 LY, with Rams 4-5. Minnesota won its last five games, covered last four; they’re 4-1 at home, 2-1 as a home favorite. Vikings were held to 9-7 points in their two losses. Rams won six of last seven games; they’re 4-0 in true road games, scoring 38.5 ppg (14 TD’s on 44 drives). LA is 2-0 vs spread as an underdog this year. Vikings won last four series games, three by 14+ points; Rams lost 21-18 in OT in last meeting here, in ’15. Rams’ last win in Minnesota was in ’06. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; NFC North favorites are 5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 6-3 in Ram games, 3-0 in last three Minnesota games.

    Cardinals (4-5) @ Texans (3-6)— Stanton got hurt last week, Savage was awful, so this looms as Gabbert vs Yates in battle of 3rd-string QB’s. Cardinals are 3-0 when they allow 15 or less points, 1-5 when they allow more; Redbirds are 2-2 in true road games, winning at Indy/SF, losing at Detroit/Philly. Houston lost its last three games; they were outscored 34-7 in 2nd half of last two games. Texans allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in each of their last three games. Home side won all three series games; Cardinals lost 30-19 in only visit here, in ’05. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-5 vs spread, 2-2 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-4 vs spread, 3-1 at home. Under is 7-1 in last eight Arizona games, 3-0 in Texan games not started by Watson.

    Jaguars (6-3) @ Browns (0-9)— Jacksonville won its last three games, allowing 8 ppg; they’re 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road favorite, with wins by 22-21-27 points, with lone loss to Jets in Swamp Stadium. Five of Jaguars’ six wins were by 16+ points; in their last five games, they outscored opponents 57-16 in second half. Cleveland is 2-7 vs spread this year, 2-2 at home; three of their four home losses were by exactly 3 points. Jaguars won last two meetings, 32-28/24-6; teams split last 10 meetings. Jaguars 6-2 in visits to Lake Erie. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 4-6-1, 0-2 on road; AFC North underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread, 1-0 at home. Under is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-3 in Cleveland’s last four games.

    Redskins (4-5) @ Saints (7-2)— New Orleans won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they allowed 10+ yards/pass attempt in first two games, then held last seven opponents to less than 5.0 ypa— they’re 2-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 14-8-20 points, and a loss to the Patriots. Saints ran ball for 150+ yards in four of last five games; that takes heat off their offense and aging QB Brees. Redskins are 2-2 as a road underdog. Washington won four of last five meetings, scoring 40-47 points in last two; they’re 7-0 in last seven visits to Bourbon Street- their last loss in New Orleans was in 1973. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 7-3 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 4-7. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, over is 4-1 in Redskins’ last five.

    Bills (5-4) @ Chargers (3-6)— Peterman makes first NFL start here; Bills were unhappy with Taylor going thru his progressions too slowly. Buffalo lost its last two games, allowing 492 rushing yards, 81 points; they’re 1-3 on road, 2-1 as a road underdog, losing by 6-4-13 points, with the lone win 23-17 in Atlanta. Bills are -1 in turnovers in their losses, +12 in their wins. Chargers lost their last two games; four of their six losses were by 3 or less points. LA is 0-1 as a favorite this season. Chargers won four of last five series games; Bills lost their last five visits to San Diego- last time they beat Bolts in California was 1981. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-3 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 against the spread, 3-5 at home. Last four Buffalo games went over the total, last four Charger games stayed under.

    Bengals (3-6) @ Broncos (3-6)— Denver lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread), thanks to a -12 turnover ratio in those games; they lost last two home games, to Giants/Patriots. Broncos desperately need a QB. Bengals lost three of last four games; they’re 1-4 on road, with losses by 3-15-16-4 points. Cincy ran total of 87 plays in its last two games; their opponents ran 162 plays. Denver won six of last seven series games, winning 20-17/29-17 the last two years; Bengals lost their last 10 visits to Denver- their last win here was in 1975. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread, 4-4-1 on road; AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 vs spread, 3-5 at home. Last three Bronco games, three of last four Cincinnati games went over the total.

    Patriots (7-2) vs Raiders (4-5) (Mexico City)— New England won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they outscored last three opponents 59-16 in first half. Patriots won field position in last three games, by 7-10-14 yards. Oakland won three of last four post-bye games; they covered their last five; Raiders lost five of their last seven games; 2-2 vs spread as an underdog. Oakland has only two takeaways (-9) in their last six games- they allowed 88 points n their last three games. Patriots won last four series games; Oakland’s last series win was in 2002. AFC East favorites are 6-4-1 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; over is 4-1 in last five Oakland games.

    Eagles (7-2) @ Cowboys (5-4)— Dallas allowed 8 sacks in Atlanta LW, with LT Smith injured; his replacement allowed 6 of the 8 sacks. They ran ball for only 107 yards with Elliott suspended. Cowboys are 2-2 at home, losing to Rams by 5, Packers by 4- under Garrett, they’re 7-5-2 as a home underdog. Eagles are 1-4 vs spread in last five post-bye games. Philly won its last seven games, covered its last six; they’re 3-1 on road, winning by 13-2-5 points, with only loss 27-20 at Kansas City. Teams split their last eight meetings; Eagles won three of last four visits here, with last two games here going to OT. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 9-8-1 vs spread. Four of last six Dallas games, five of last seven Eagle games went over the total.

    Monday's game
    Falcons (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-3)— In its last five games, Atlanta lost field position by 9-7-11-16-3 yards; they’re 3-2 on road, losing 23-7 in Foxboro, 20-17 at Carolina. Seattle won five of its last six games; they’re 1-3 as a home favorite, winning home games by 3-28-3 points, with a 17-14 loss to Washington. Falcons won five of last seven series games; they whacked Seattle 36-20 in playoffs last year, after losing 36-20 here during regular season. Teams split last six series games played here. Atlanta lost four of last six games; NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-4-1 vs spread, 2-2-1 on road. NFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total, as have four of Seahawks’ last five games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:55 PM.

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    NFL

    Thursday, November 16


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Titans at Steelers
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)

    The Pittsburgh Steelers have not looked the part of a dominant team but they keep finding ways to win and are tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the AFC. The Steelers will go for their fifth consecutive victory when they host the visiting Tennessee Titans on Thursday night in a matchup of division leaders.

    Pittsburgh extended its winning streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 14-point deficit in the second half to beat Indianapolis 20-17 on a last-second field goal by Chris Boswell. "There was a lot of negativity that we will talk about," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said after his team improved to 5-1 on the road. "But we'll talk about negativity with a win. That's my preference." The Titans also have won four in a row to join Jacksonville atop the AFC South, rallying for a last-minute 24-20 win over Cincinnati -- its third straight victory over an AFC North rival of Pittsburgh. "I use the word resilient a lot, but I think that's the makeup of this team," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said. "It's amazing that they believe in themselves, they just know we always have a chance to win."

    TV:
    8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Steelers opened as 6.5-point home favorites and as of Wednesday night that number has been bet up slightly to -7. The total hit betting boards at 43.5 and has been bumped up slightly to 44.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Titans (-1.5) - Steelers (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -5.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Titans - G Quinton Spain (Probable, Toe), TE Delanie Walker (Probable, Forearm), QB Marcus Mariota (Probable, Ankle), LB Nate Palmer (Questionable, Ankle), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable, Back), WR Harry Douglas (I-R, Knee), QB Alex Tanney (I-R, Foot), WR Tajae' Sharpe (I-R, Foot), LB Victor Ochi (I-R, Knee).

    Steelers - WR Martavis Bryant (Probable, Illness), LB James Harrison (Questionable, Back), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Ankle), S Mike Mitchell (Doubful, Ankle), CB Joe Haden (Out, Leg), CB Cameron Sutton (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Keion Adams (I-R, Shoulder).

    ABOUT THE TITANS (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U):
    Tennessee must find a way to get its offense on track on the road after scoring a combined 36 points in its last three away from home, especially with four of the next five games away from Nashville. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrown seven touchdown passes against six interceptions, but he has led three-game winning drives during the winning streak and is coming off a 51-yard rushing day versus Cincinnati. Running back DeMarco Murray scored three TDs in last week's win while backup Derrick Henry added 52 yards on 11 carries. Tennessee has tightened up its rushing defense over the past four games, allowing a combined 277 yards in that span.

    ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 1-8 O/U):
    Ben Roethlisberger owns a completion percentage of 61.1 and passer rating of 83.8 - his lowest marks since the 2008 season - but he rallied Pittsburgh with a pair of scoring passes in the second half last week. Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging 29.5 carries the past four games, leads the league with 840 rushing yards while wideout Antonio Brown has an NFL-best 882 yards, although he has only 12 receptions over the past four games. Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to thrive with a touchdown catch in each of the past three games. Pittsburgh is second in the league, allowing an average of 16.4, and has held its last four opponents to 17 or fewer.

    TRENDS:


    * Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
    * Steelers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Over is 6-2 in Titans' last 8 games overall.
    * Under is 7-0 in Steelers' last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
    * Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road underdog Titans at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is getting 60 of the totals action


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-16-2017 at 01:56 PM.

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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    More NFL trends with Week 11 upon us……

    — New Orleans covered nine of its last 12 games.

    — Bengals are 1-6-1 in last eight games as a road underdog.

    — Atlanta is 8-2 vs spread in last ten games as a road underdog.

    — Seahawks are 3-7-1 vs spread in their last 11 games.

    — Falcons covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog.

    — Ravens covered seven of their last nine post-bye games.

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    Common sense is not so common.
    “You can have everything you want in life if you help enough other people get what they want out of life.” Zig Ziglar
    Sagarin NCAAB Rankings

    Cerca Trova
    “Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.”
    ― Dr. Seuss


    “a soft answer turns away wrath” (Proverbs 15:1)


    We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.


    E-mail: BettorsChat@comcast.net


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    Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

    Oakland Raiders wideout Amari Cooper has picked up his production of the the last few weeks but he still leads the NFL in receiver drops at 10 this season according to Pro Football Focus.

    Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 45.5)

    The Rams own one of the best offenses in the league and a menacing defense led by defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Special teams can get lost in the shuffle sometimes and just like the second last round of your fantasy football draft, people are forgetting about the kicker. Greg Zuerlerin, who also goes by Legatron according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, is on pace to score 203 points this season which would top the single season points record held by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006.

    Legatron is 28 for 29 on his field goal tries this season and is a perfect 30 for 30 on his extra-point kicks.

    LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 2-point chalk but the line has moved up a half point in their favor. The total opened at 46 and has dropped down to 45.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
    *The Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.
    *The over is 4-0 in the Rams’ last four road games.

    Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2, 38)

    Former Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta went on Baltimore radio and told listeners the problem with Baltimore’s offense is that his good friend and former teammate Joe Flacco isn’t set up for success.

    "Right now, Joe has one read, and then he's got to check it down if it's not there," Pitta said. "That's really the offense they have set up for him. It's difficult to play quarterback under those circumstances."

    Flacco is in the midst of his worst season as a pro and sits at No. 31 in the league in passer rating at 72.7.

    LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened as 2.5-point road faves but the line has been bet down to as low as 1.5 at some shops. The total is also moving down from 38.5 to now 37.5 at a few locations.

    TRENDS:

    *The over is 5-0 in the Ravens’ last five games overall.
    *The Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.

    Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+3, 41)

    Good news for Lions backers. Detroit should have all five of its preseason projected starters available for the first time this season. The Lions were ranked 29th in Pro Football Focus’ elite pass blocking efficiency after the first four weeks of the season. Only four other teams have allowed more sacks than the Lions at 30.

    LINE HISTORY: No movement on the spread but the total has come down three points after opening at 44.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
    *The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Chicago.

    Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51)

    The fight with flight Saints have been replaced by the ground and pound unit of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The pair are on pace to accumulate the most yards from scrimmage for a running back duo since 1978 according to FiveThirtyEight.

    New Orleans gashed the Bills for 298 rushing yards on 48 carries last weekend. Washington has allowed 139.7 rushing yards per game over its last three contests. Only the Dolphins, Bills, Giants and Bengals have allowed more yards per game over that stretch.

    LINE HISTORY: The Saints have bounced between 7.5 and 8.5-point faves this week. The total has been bet up a point from 50 to 51.

    TRENDS:

    *Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
    *The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with losing records.

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (7.5, 37)

    There isn’t much the Browns do well but stopping the run is one thing they do. Cleveland allows the fourth fewest rushing yards per game at 86.4 and a league-best 3.1 yards per carry.

    The Jags might be without their best running back this weekend. Leonard Fournette missed practice on Friday and is questionable to play on Sunday. Jacksonville will force feed backup tailback Chris Ivory if Fournette is a no-go. Quarterback Blake Bortles didn’t do much to instill confidence in the Jags coaching staff after last week’s performance.

    LINE HISTORY: The Jags have floated between 7.5 and 8-point chalk this week. The total opened at 38 but is listed at 37 at most shops heading into the weekend.

    TRENDS:

    *The Browns are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games.
    *The Jags are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
    *The under is 13-3 in the Browns' last 16 home games.

    Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-1.5, 37.5)

    Blaine Gabbert will start at quarterback for the Cardinals against the Texans but this isn’t just a meaningless, mop-up spot. Gabbert is liked by the Arizona coaching staff as demonstrated by the fact the team held onto Gabbert even though he didn't win the backup QB job in preseason.

    Drew Stanton is out of the picture this weekend because of a twisted knee which gives Gabbert a chance to prove to offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin that he should be in contention for the starter’s job next season.

    LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as 1.5-point favorites offshore and are now getting between 1.5 to 2 points depending on the book. The total opened as high as 45 and is now down to as low as 37.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The under is 7-1 in the Cards’ last eight games.
    *The Cards are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 41.5)

    This is the game the Bucs and Dolphins were originally scheduled to play in Week 1 but had to delay to this weekend because of Hurricane Irma.

    The Phins sure could have used that bye week right about now to fix their defense. The club has given 112 points in their last three games – all loses – and opponents are averaging 407 offensive yards while converting better than 52 percent on third down.

    LINE HISTORY: The Fish opened as short faves but the line has drifted to the other side with the Bucs now 1-point chalk.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bucs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
    *The over is 4-0 in Miami’s last four games.

    Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants (+10.5, 46)

    How bad is it for the G-Men? They are double-digit home dogs for only the fifth time since 1978 according to ESPN Stats and Info. New York covered in each of those previous four instances but it’s hard to imagine a situation uglier this one for the Giants.

    LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as high as 13-point road faves but the line has been bet down to 10.5. The total has moved up two points from 44 to 46.

    TRENDS:

    *The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
    *The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.

    Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 41)

    The Bills decided to make a switch at quarterback by dropping Tyrod Taylor to the bench in favor of rookie Nathan Peterman. He tossed for 2855 yards and 27 touchdowns last season at Pitt and completed 43 of 79 pass attempts for 453 yards and a touchdown in NFL preseason action this past summer.

    The Bolts were worried Philip Rivers wouldn’t be able to play this weekend as he recovers from a concussion from last weekend but he has been medically clear to play.

    LINE HISTORY: The books installed the Chargers are 4-point home faves and moved the spread up a couple points after Buffalo announced it would start a rookie at QB this weekend.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bills are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
    *The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
    *The over is 4-0 in Buffalo’s last four games.

    New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+7, 54.5)

    The Raiders are rich in offensive playmakers but their receivers are letting down quarterback Derek Carr. Oakland receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and tight end Jared Cook have a combined 11 drop passes this season according to the Washington Post. Pro Football Focus scores it a little differently with Cooper leading the league in drops at 10 through 11 weeks.
    The Raiders can’t afford a case of the dropsies if they want to keep pace with the Patriots in Mexico City on Sunday.

    LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Pats giving 5.5 points but the line has crept up to 7.5 at some shops. The total has moved up four points from 50.5 to 54.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Pats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records.
    *The Raiders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 38)

    The Broncos are on a five-game skid that’s seen them be outscored 68-165 by their opposition. Team president John Elway told reporters he thinks the Broncos went “a bit soft” after going 4-0 in the preseason and then 3-1 to start the year.

    LINE HISTORY: The total opened at 40 and has been bet down to 38. There has been no movement on the spread.

    TRENDS:

    *The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
    *The under is 12-5 in the Bengals’ last 17 games overall.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+5, 48)

    Dallas will be without left tackle Tyron Smith again this weekend as the All-Pro is dealing with groin and back injuries. The Falcons took advantage of the replacement offensive tackle by sacking Dak Prescott eight times last week.

    LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 3.5-point faves but the public has pushed the price up another point to 4.5. The total opened at 47 and is now sitting at 48 at most shops.

    TRENDS:

    *The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
    *The over is 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last six games against teams with winning records.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-19-2017 at 12:54 PM.

  15. #15
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    NFL

    Sunday, November 19


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Eagles at Cowboys
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    After throwing for 15 scores in his previous seven games, Prescott used his legs with a play-action touchdown run in Dallas' 27-7 setback to Atlanta last week.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+5, 48)

    The Dallas Cowboys will enter Sunday night's home tilt versus the surging Philadelphia Eagles without star running back Ezekiel Elliott, and perhaps decorated Pro Bowl offensive tackle Tyron Smith. After seeing his team's offense remain stuck in neutral without both studs last week, quarterback Dak Prescott may need to outduel fellow second-year quarterback Carson Wentz at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

    After throwing for 15 scores in his previous seven games, Prescott used his legs with a play-action touchdown run in Dallas' 27-7 setback to Atlanta last week. The 24-year-old only threw for 176 yards - and for a 5.87 average - due in large part to constant pressure, with defensive end Adrian Clayborn recording six of his team's eight sacks to disrupt any offensive continuity. While the Cowboys saw their three-game winning streak halted, Philadelphia has emerged victorious in seven in a row and could put a stranglehold on the NFC East title should it avenge last season's 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas. Wentz threw for just 202 yards in that outing, but the 24-year-old has thrown 17 of his NFL-best 23 touchdown passes in the last five games and guides the league's second-ranked offense at 31.4 points per contest.

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Eagles (-5) - Cowboys (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Eagles -0.5.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point home dogs against their NFC East rivals and money on the road team has pushed that line to +5 at most shops. The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and was quickly bet up to 48.5 where it currently sits.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "The Cowboys would have been the favorite in this game one month ago, but Dallas will now be missing several key players in this divisional primetime game and that is why the Cowboys are now a home underdog. Philadelphia is coming off their bye week and it will be interesting to see if they can continue their momentum as they are 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) in their past seven games. Last season the Eagles started 3-0 SU/ATS, but then went 2-9 SU (3-8 ATS) after their bye week." - Covers Expert Steve Merril

    WHAT BOOKS SAY:
    
"Major sharp money on the Eagles has come in throughout the week. We briefly moved down to -3 right after opening, but Philly money has poured in since. The Cowboys didn't look well without Tyron Smith and Ezekiel Elliott last week, and the betting public is reacting as well." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Eagles - CB Ronald Darby (Probable, Ankle), S Jaylen Watkins (Probable, Hamstring), WR Alshon Jeffery (Probable, Ankle), TE Zach Ertz (Probable, Hamstring), CB Sidney Jones (Questionable, Achilles), K Caleb Sturgis (Doubtful, Quadricep)

    Cowboys - CB Chidobe Awuzie (Probable, Hamstring), WR Dez Bryant (Probable, Ankle), DT Maliek Collins (Questionable, Foot), LB Justin Durant (Questionable, Groin), TE Geoff Swaim (Questionable, Knee), CB Orlando Scandrick (Questionable, Hand), S Jeff Heath (Doubtful, Concussion), OT Tyron Smith (Out, Groin), LB Sean Lee (Mid December, Hamstring), RB Ezekiel Elliott (Eligible Week 16, Suspension).

    ABOUT THE EAGLES (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS, 6-3 O/U):
    Offseason acquisition Alshon Jeffery has three touchdowns in his last two games and also found the end zone in two of his last three meetings with Dallas. Zach Ertz aims to return from a two-game absence due to an ailing hamstring and pick up where he left off, as the 27-year-old has five touchdowns in his last four contests. Ertz leads all NFC tight ends in receptions (43), yards (528) and TDs (six) this season and reeled in 13 catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns versus the Cowboys last season.

    ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U):
    While Elliott's absence is due to his suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy, Smith could sit out his second straight game as a result of a groin injury that prevented him from practicing on Wednesday and Thursday. Byron Bell received first-team reps in his place in favor of Chaz Green, who started and struggled at Atlanta. Alfred Morris rushed five times on the opening drive last week and finished with 53 yards on 11 carries. Dez Bryant has been slowed by an ailing knee, limiting him to just 39 yards receiving in two of his last three games.

    TRENDS:


    * Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

    * Cowboys are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

    * Over is 14-2 in Eagles last 16 road games.

    * Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road chalk Eagles at a rate of 74 percent and the Over is getting 73 percent of the totals action.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-19-2017 at 12:56 PM.

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