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  1. #1
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    Default Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/8

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, November 8

    Good Luck on day #311 of 2017!
    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    Odds to win the college football national title

    — Alabama 2-3

    — Georgia 5-1

    — Clemson 7-1

    — Notre Dame 10-1

    — Ohio State 12-1

    — Wisconsin 16-1


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……

    13) UCLA plays Georgia Tech in basketball Friday night in China. Tuesday, three freshman on UCLA’s team were busted for shoplifting from a Louis Vuitton store in Shanghai.

    Was reading some stuff on the Interweb about this; the Chinese system is different from ours- these three nitwits could get 3-10 years in prison for shoplifting. There is no guarantee they’ll be back in the United States anytime soon- the Chinese justice system is slower, they don’t offer bail the way we do.

    Donald Trump is going to be in China later this week; now there are worlds colliding, Trump and LaVar Ball in China at the same time, with Ball’s son in dire need of some legal aid.

    Put that on your reality show.

    12) The Andrew Luck situation in Indianapolis is becoming a huge mess, as Colts owner Jim Irsay is apparently questioning Luck in private conversations, saying Luck’s injury is “in his head.” Terrific.

    Luck first hurt his shoulder in 2015; now he won’t play until next summer, at the earliest.

    11) Suns traded Eric Bledsoe to Milwaukee, for Greg Monroe and protected 2018 1st/2nd-round picks. Monroe’s contract is up after this season, so that becomes valuable salary cap space.

    10) Detroit Lions didn’t punt in Monday night’s win in Green Bay, the first time Detroit didn’t punt in a game since……..1971.

    9) Interesting bit of knowledge from Aaron Rodgers Monday night; he says if you get a broken bone x-rayed a lot to check on progress of healing, the radiation actually slows down the bone’s healing, so Green Bay doctors will not be doing that with Rodgers’ clavicle this time around.

    8) Green Bay lost RT Bryan Bulaga with a torn ACL in Monday’s loss, as their season crumbles even further……..if I coached the Packers, we’d go no-huddle with Brett Hundley. He looked a lot more comfortable playing at a faster pace.

    7) Omri Casspi has played in 507 career NBA games, scoring 8.2 ppg thanks largely to a 36.8% mark from 3-point range; this is his 9th season, but he has never been on a team that made the playoffs. That changes soon; Casspi is on the Warriors this season.

    6) Houston Texans signed QB Josh Johnson to be their #3 QB, and waived Matt McGloin.

    5) Former Mets’ pitching coach Dan Warthen has moved on to the same job with the Texas Rangers.

    4) Anaheim Ducks captain Ryan Getzlaf broke his cheekbone, will be out for a couple of months. He got hit in the face with a puck and broke his cheekbone- it hurts me just to type that.

    3) Alabama had one basketball player declared ineligible this week; another one had his knee scoped. Going to take some time in November to get a handle on who is and isn’t eligible, with all the off-court nonsense going on.

    One of the non-basketball people scheduled to be indicted in SneakerGate won’t be indicted this week, meaning he could be cooperating with authorities, which means more heads could roll, and more players could be declared ineligible.

    2) Charlotte’s Malik Monk is 19 years old; he scored 8.8 ppg in 21.3 mpg in his first 10 NBA games. Tuesday night in New York, he scored 21 points in 27 minutes in the Hornets’ highly entertaining 118-113 loss to the Knicks. Monk looks like he will be an elite scorer.

    1) RIP to the great big league pitcher Roy Halladay 40, who passed away Tuesday in a plane crash in the Gulf of Mexico. Halladay will likely get elected to the Hall of Fame in 2019. He was 203-105, 3.38 in 16 big league seasons, with the Blue Jays/Phillies.

    Halladay and Don Larsen threw the only two postseason no-hitters.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2017 at 11:56 AM.

  3. #3
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    NBA
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, November 8


    New York @ Orlando

    Game 501-502
    November 8, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New York
    117.544
    Orlando
    120.159
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Orlando
    by 2 1/2
    207
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Orlando
    by 5 1/2
    214
    Dunkel Pick:
    New York
    (+5 1/2); Under

    Indiana @ Detroit


    Game 503-504
    November 8, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indiana
    121.748
    Detroit
    117.658
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indiana
    by 4
    206
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indiana
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indiana
    N/A

    LA Lakers @ Boston


    Game 505-506
    November 8, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Lakers
    118.182
    Boston
    129.369
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 11
    201
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 9
    210
    Dunkel Pick:
    Boston
    (-9); Under

    Miami @ Phoenix


    Game 507-508
    November 8, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    122.225
    Phoenix
    109.640
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 13
    202
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Miami
    by 5
    213
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (-5); Under

    Minnesota @ Golden State


    Game 509-510
    November 8, 2017 @ 10:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    123.785
    Golden State
    130.369
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Golden State
    by 6 1/2
    222
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Golden State
    by 11
    229
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (+11); Under





    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, November 8


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW YORK (6 - 4) at ORLANDO (6 - 4) - 11/8/2017, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ORLANDO is 38-53 ATS (-20.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 61-91 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW YORK is 4-3 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    NEW YORK is 4-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANA (5 - 6) at DETROIT (7 - 3) - 11/8/2017, 7:05 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANA is 7-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANA is 7-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA LAKERS (5 - 5) at BOSTON (9 - 2) - 11/8/2017, 8:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
    LA LAKERS are 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
    BOSTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA LAKERS is 3-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 3-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (4 - 6) at PHOENIX (4 - 7) - 11/8/2017, 9:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 120-157 ATS (-52.7 Units) in November games since 1996.
    PHOENIX is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MINNESOTA (7 - 3) at GOLDEN STATE (8 - 3) - 11/8/2017, 10:35 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GOLDEN STATE is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    GOLDEN STATE is 89-60 ATS (+23.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
    MINNESOTA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 5-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
    GOLDEN STATE is 5-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, November 8


    Knicks won/covered four of last five games with Orlando; under is 6-3 in last nine series games. New York is 3-1-1 vs spread in last five visits here. Knicks won six of last seven games; three of their last four went over the total. NY is 1-2 vs spread as a road underdog. Orlando lost their last two games; they’re 0-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Last three Magic home teams stayed under the total.

    Pacers won/covered their last six games with Detroit; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to the Motor City (over 3-2). Indiana lost at home last night, their third loss in row; Pacers are 3-2 as a road underdog. Over is 4-2 in Indiana road games. Detroit won five of its last six games; they’re 3-2 vs spread as home favorites. Under is 3-2 in their home games this season.

    Lakers lost their last three games with Boston, but covered seven of last nine, three of last four in Beantown. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Lakers won three of last four games; they are 2-1 as road underdogs. LA’s last three games went over the total. Celtics won their last nine games (8-1 vs spread); they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

    Miami won/covered nine of last ten games with Phoenix; under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Heat covered four of their last five visits to the desert. Miami lost five of last seven games; they are 1-3 on road, 0-1 as a road favorite. Last four Heat games stayed under the total. Suns lost their last three games; four of their last six games went over total. Phoenix is 2-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

    Minnesota is 8-1-1 vs spread in its last 10 games vs Golden State (2-8 SU); they’re 4-0-1 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Wolves won their last five games (4-0-1 vs spread); they’re 2-2 as road underdogs. Over is 4-1 in Minnesota road tilts. Golden State won four in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 1-4 vs spread as home favorites. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.




    NBA

    Wednesday, November 8


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    INDIANA @ DETROIT
    Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

    NEW YORK @ ORLANDO
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games on the road
    New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against New York

    LA LAKERS @ BOSTON
    LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
    LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

    MIAMI @ PHOENIX
    Miami is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Phoenix
    Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Phoenix
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing Miami

    MINNESOTA @ GOLDEN STATE
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
    Golden State is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
    Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2017 at 11:58 AM.

  4. #4
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    NBA Betting Roadmap: Hayward who?
    Al McMordie

    Through the NBA season's first three weeks, there are several surprises. Out East, Stan Van Gundy's Detroit Pistons and Frank Vogel's Orlando Magic are in second and third place, respectively, while Cleveland is 4-6 and tied for 11th place with the Nets and Heat. While in the West, the big surprise is the Memphis Grizzlies sitting in a tie for 4th place, with a 6-4 record. Let's look at the week ahead in the NBA.

    Spread Watch

    Who needs Gordon Hayward? That might be the thought of Boston fans, as the Celtics have won nine straight games after starting the season 0-2. They had also covered eight straight, before losing against the spread on Monday night in Atlanta.

    For the season, the Celtics are second (behind the Warriors) in point differential (+9.1) and second (behind the 76ers) in ATS win percentage (.818).

    This week, Boston will host the Lakers, Hornets and Raptors, so it will have an excellent opportunity to stretch its win streak to 12. But the fact the Celtics lost ATS to Atlanta in their last game is, for me, a huge "sell" signal.

    Indeed, NBA teams that finally lose ATS, after covering their previous seven (or more) games in a row, typically follow up that initial ATS defeat with a second straight ATS defeat and especially if they're playing at home (41-76-3 ATS since 1990). Grab the points with the Lakers on Tuesday.

    Total Watch

    After Week 2 in the NBA saw a preponderance of Unders it was a different story last week, as games went Over the total to a tune of 31-22-1. No team contributed more to this trend than Mike D'Antoni's Houston Rockets, who sailed Over the total in all four of their games.

    Their last game, on Sunday, was also their most impressive (and highest scoring) win of the season, as they blew out Utah, 137-110, as a 6.5-point favorite. Will the Rockets' high-octane offense continue to light up the scoreboard this week?

    Houston will be well-rested when it plays its next game, on Thursday, vs. LeBron James' Cavaliers (before finishing the week with back-to-back games vs. Memphis and Indiana). That Saturday game versus Memphis has all the earmarks of a low-scoring game.

    Indeed, the Grizzlies and Rockets have played twice already this season. And not only did Memphis win both games, but it also held the Rockets to their two lowest regular-season point totals (89 and 90) in D'Antoni's 93 games as head coach. Not surprisingly, both of those games went Under the total (by 11 and 25.5 points). Look for Saturday's game to be relatively low-scoring, as well.

    Injury Watch

    The Los Angeles Clippers got their season off to a promising 4-0 SU/ATS start and were the league's final, remaining undefeated team. But the injury bug bit the Clippers, as point guard Milos Teodosic injured his ankle and is out indefinitely, while forward Danilo Gallinari bruised his hip and exited Los Angeles' last game, a loss to the Miami Heat.

    The Clippers are now just 5-4 SU/ATS and both players will miss Tuesday's game at San Antonio (another injury-riddled club). After playing the Spurs, the Clippers will continue their road trip with games at Oklahoma City and New Orleans.

    Saturday's game at the Pelicans could be particularly troublesome for the Clippers if they remain short-handed, since they'll be playing without rest. New Orleans is also 25-12 ATS its last 37 games versus Los Angeles, including 14-4 ATS at home. Take the Pelicans.

    Schedule Watch

    Last season, the NBA made a concerted effort to reduce the number of times a team had to play back-to-back games, or several games within a relatively short time-frame. But there are still occasions when a team must play three games in four nights, or five games in seven nights.

    Dating back to last season, NBA teams that were saddled with playing five games in seven nights have lost that 5th game (straight-up) 10 times in a row (4-6 ATS).

    This Saturday, the Phoenix Suns will be in that unenviable scheduling situation when they host the Timberwolves. To make matters worse, Phoenix will be coming off a Friday night game versus Orlando, while Minnesota will have had the previous two days off.

    Since 1990, NBA teams are a wallet-busting 74-107 ATS at home when playing their fifth game in seven days against an opponent which didn't play the previous two days. Take the Timberwolves.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-08-2017 at 11:59 AM.

  5. #5
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    Wednesday's NBA GOTD betting preview and odds: Timberwolves at Warriors

    Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-10.5, 229.5)

    The Golden State Warriors wow fans with their offensive exploits, but they also do strong work on the other end of the floor. The Warriors, who led the NBA in defensive field-goal percentage en route to the championship last season, will try to follow up their best defensive performance of the 2017-18 campaign with another strong effort when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday.

    Golden State did not get off to the best start on the defensive end this season but is coming on of late and put everything together while holding the Miami heat to 36.1 percent shooting in a 97-80 victory on Monday. "I thought it was our best defensive effort of the year," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "It was tremendous. We forced 23 turnovers, we were attentive on our switching. ... I thought we made really good decisions out there." The Timberwolves should pose a challenge to that defense after averaging 114.4 points during a five-game winning streak. Minnesota boasts five scorers averaging double figures, led by Karl-Anthony Towns' 21.8 points, and is enjoying the franchise's first five-game winning streak since 2009.

    TV:
    10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, FS North (Minnesota), NBCS Bay Area (Golden State)

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Warriors opened as 10-point home favorites and that spread has been bet up slightly to -10.5. The total hit betting boards at 228 and has been bumped to 229.5.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Timberwolves - C J. Patton (Out Indefinitely, Toe).

    Warriors - No injuries to report.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Timberwolves (-7.8) - Warriors (-18) + home court (-3) = Warriors -13.2

    CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES:

    T-Wolves +4,000
    Warriors -200

    ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-3-1 O/U):
    Minnesota brought in veterans Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague over the summer to supplement a solid young corps, and they believe the team is only scratching the surface. "This is still a work in progress," Teague told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "We're still trying to figure out each other. It can be a lot better. We all know that. We're starting to get into a groove here. But we have miles to go to be the team we want to be." Teague recorded 18 points and 12 assists in a 112-94 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday to continue his own groove with a fourth double-double in five games.

    ABOUT THE WARRIORS (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U):
    Golden State leads the NBA in scoring average (118.5 points) and assists (30.5) but suffered through a rare off shooting night while connecting at 36.8 percent in Monday's win. That slump did not extend to forward Draymond Green, who scored 18 points on 5-of-10 shooting and is 23-of-34 from the floor during a four-game winning streak. The reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year averaged 7.1 points on 36.4 percent shooting in the first seven games but scored at least 15 points in each of the last four contests.

    TRENDS:


    * Timberwolves are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
    * Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
    * Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games.
    * Over is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 vs. Western Conference.
    * Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    62 percent of the spread wagers are on the road underdog Wolves while 72 percent of the totals selections are on the Over.

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