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Thread: NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 ( Thur., Nov. 9 - Mon., Nov. 13 )

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2004



    Monday, November 13

    Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Dolphins at Panthers

    Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9, 38)

    The Carolina Panthers are nipping at the heels of first place in the NFC South due in large part to their top-ranked defense, which has yielded an NFL-low 274.1 yards per game while their 29 sacks are second-best in the league. The Panthers look to continue their dominance on Monday night when they host the Miami Dolphins, who average an NFL-worst 14.5 points per game.

    "How well can we protect? That's where it starts and it filters down after that," Miami coach Adam Gase said of his team's daunting task against Luke Kuechly (team-best 65 tackles), Julius Peppers (club-high 7.5 sacks) and company. "It's a huge puzzle and you're trying to put it together. ... We just have to find a way to clean a few things up. I feel like we're close." Given time, Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler completed a career-high 81 percent of his passes (34 of 42, 311 yards) in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Oakland. While the Dolphins have dropped two straight to even their record, the Panthers have answered a two-game skid with two wins of their own to remain a half-game behind streaking New Orleans in the NFC South. "A prime-time game and peaking right when we're supposed to be. Come Monday night, everybody come ready to rock and roll," said Carolina's Cam Newton, who has thrown for 11 touchdowns and rushed for two more in five Monday night appearances.

    8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

    The Panthers opened as 7.5-point home favorites and steady action on the home side has bumped that number up to -9 heading into game day. The total hit betting boards at 39.5 and has been reduced to 38.

    "This is one of the lowest NFL Over/Under totals this season, but for good reason as both offenses have struggled. Miami has averaged just 14.5 points per game on 4.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 21.6 ppg on 5.4 yppl). Carolina has averaged only 18.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 22.0 ppg on 5.7 yppl)." - Steve Merril.

    Dolphins (2.5) - Panthers (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -7.


    Dolphins - RB Damien Williams (Probable, Illness), C Ted Larsen (Probable, Bicep), DT Ndamukong Suh (Probable, Knee), CB Bobby McCain (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Mike Hull (Questionable, Shoulder), S Michael Thomas (Questionable, Knee), WR Jakeem Grant (Questionable, Illness), WR Rashawn Scott (Questionable, Foot), T Ja'Wuan James (I-R, Hamstring), S Nate Allen (Out, Calf), C Anthony Steen (Out, Foot), T Eric Smith (Out, Knee), LB Raekwon McMillan (I-R, Knee), CB Tony Lippett (I-R, Achilles), WR Isaiah Ford (I-R, Knee), QB Ryan Tannehill (I-R, Knee), LB Lamin Barrow (I-R, Foot), LB Koa Misi (I-R, Neck).

    Panthers - WR Curtis Samuel (Probable, Ankle), QB Cam Newton (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Fozzy Whittaker (Questionable, Ankle), T John Theus (Questionable, Concussion), DE Bryan Cox Jr. (Questionable, Hip), S Mike Adams (Questionable, Shoulder), TE Chris Manhertz (Questionable, Concussion), C Ryan Kalil (Out, Neck), CB Cole Luke (Questionable, Ankle), CB Corn Elder (I-R, Knee), S Demetrious Cox (Out, Ankle), TE Greg Olsen (Out, Foot), DE Daeshon Hall (Out, Knee), WR Damiere Byrd (Out, Forearm), T Dan France (I-R, Concussion), CB Teddy Williams (I-R, Arm), DT Drew Iddings (I-R, Shoulder), WR Charles Johnson (I-R, Back).

    ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U):
    Miami's beleaguered ground attack took a step forward in the wake of the team trading Pro Bowl selection Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia, as Kenyan Drake amassed 104 yards from scrimmage versus Oakland while fellow running back Damien Williams had a touchdown reception. Wideout Jarvis Landry, who also found the end zone against the Raiders, is second in the NFL with 56 catches while his 344 receptions since entering the NFL in 2014 is the most in league history by a player in his first four seasons. Fellow wideout DeVante Parker showed no signs of an ailing ankle last week by reeling in five catches and 76 yards, but his toes have found the end zone on just one occasion this season.

    ABOUT THE PANTHERS (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U):
    While Newton rushed for 86 yards in Carolina's 20-17 win over Atlanta on Sunday, the Panthers likely were happier that rookie Christian McCaffrey picked up a season-best 66 with his first rushing score last week. "A lot had to do with the blocking up front," coach Ron Rivera said. "I thought we got our hands on them and we were able to push and Christian was able to make some cuts." McCaffrey leads the team with 54 catches out of the backfield, but Devin Funchess also has stepped up as the team's top wideout since Kelvin Benjamin was traded to Buffalo. "Very savvy. He's growing into the role," Newton said of the 6-foot-4, 225-pound Funchess, who had five catches for 86 yards last week.


    * Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
    * Panthers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
    * Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 road games.
    * Under is 8-2-1 in Panthers last 11 games on grass.
    * Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

    The public is siding with the road underdog Dolphins at a rate of 60 percent and the Over is getting 63 of the totals action


  2. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    NFL opening line report: Eagles open as 3.5-point road favorites vs. Cowboys
    Patrick Everson

    “No one would’ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are.”

    The team at the top of the NFC East is not the one most people expected through 10 weeks of the season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for a key clash involving that team, along with three other Week 11 games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook

    Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)

    Philadelphia is certainly one of the top surprise teams of the year, piling up seven consecutive wins en route to the best record in the NFL. The Eagles (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) are also coming off their bye week, after dismantling Denver 51-23 as a 7-point favorite in Week 9.

    Dallas, which won the NFC East last year with a 13-3 record, can’t seem to regain that form, and it didn’t get any easier in Week 10 without the now-suspended Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys were 3.5-point underdogs at Atlanta and got rolled 27-7.

    “No one would’ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are,” Cooley said. “Philadelphia has made leaping strides this season and is well above the Cowboys in our power ratings. As we all know, JerryWorld doesn’t exactly provide a home-field edge, so the Eagles deserved to be above the field-goal threshold. However, I do expect this will close at a field goal.”

    In fact, late Sunday night, the line had already ducked down to 3.

    Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

    Pittsburgh was among the preseason favorites in the Super Bowl futures book, but hasn’t looked much the part this season. Yet the Steelers are still 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS), after rallying from a 17-3 deficit to post a 20-17 victory at Indianapolis as a 10.5-pint chalk.

    Like the Steelers, Tennessee (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) has won four in a row (1-2-1 ATS). The Titans got a last-minute touchdown Sunday to top Cincinnati 24-20, though they fell just short at the betting window as 4.5-point favorites.

    “Marcus Mariota looked like his old self this week, while the Steelers slept-walked through an ugly affair,” Cooley said. “Still, we know this Pittsburgh offense can explode any week, and we know that the public is going to back the Steelers through and through. We’ll likely see some serious sharp money on the road ‘dog.”

    New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (no line)

    New England is definitely rounding into form heading into this neutral-site clash in Mexico City. The Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) flattened Denver 41-16 in the Sunday nighter, easily cashing as a 7-point road chalk.

    Oakland had a bye in Week 10 and is hoping to climb back to .500 in what many observers thought would be a much better season. The Raiders (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) edged Miami 27-24 in Week 9, pushing as a 3-point road favorite.

    Since the Patriots were in the Sunday nighter, is holding off on the opening line until Monday.

    “If everything goes accordingly, we’ll look to make the Pats around 6-point chalk,” Cooley said. “Something just isn’t right with the Raiders these days.”

    Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

    In Week 10, Atlanta finally looked a little more like the team that went to the Super Bowl last year. The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) pulled away from Dallas in the second half for a 27-7 victory laying 3.5 points at home.

    Seattle comes into this Monday night matchup with a little more rest, having played the Week 10 Thursday nighter. In that contest, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) held off Arizona 22-16 to push as a 6-point fave. However, Seattle lost superstar cornerback Richard Sherman for the rest of the year, due to a ruptured Achilles tendon.

    “We’re going to find out very quickly how much the Seahawks miss Sherman. My guess is a ton,” Cooley said. “They already had ample offensive deficiencies, and now there’s a gaping hole in the secondary. If not for Russell Wilson, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL. On the other side, is Atlanta finally hitting its stride?”



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