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  1. #1
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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 ( Thur., Nov. 2 - Mon., Nov. 6 )

    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 2 - Monday, November 6

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    NFL opening line report: Unpredictable Panthers open as slight faves over Falcons in Week 9
    Patrick Everson

    "No one knows which Carolina club will show up for this one. The Panthers are one of the most mercurial teams in the league."

    We’re heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, and the whole Ezekiel Elliott situation is still not resolved, which is forcing oddsmakers to tap the brakes a bit. Everson takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (no line)

    Dallas still had Elliott’s services Sunday, and he delivered in a big way on the highway. The star running back racked up 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping the Cowboys (4-3 SU and ATS) top Washington 33-19 as a 3-point favorite. Elliott’s Week 9 status is uncertain at this point.

    Kansas City still has some Week 8 work to do, hosting the Denver Broncos on Monday night. The Chiefs (5-2 SU and ATS) got out of the box 5-0 SU and ATS, then lost at home to Pittsburgh and at Oakland.

    “The Elliott situation will keep this game a bit muddled until we get clarity on his availability,” Cooley said. “As well, we’ll want to wait and see how the Chiefs fare Monday night. If nothing changes and these teams come into this great matchup as is, then Dallas will be a short favorite.”

    Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)

    Atlanta still doesn’t look like the team that reached the Super Bowl last year, but at least Matt Ryan and Co. put a three-game SU and ATS skid in the rearview mirror. The Falcons (5-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) held off the New York Jets 25-20 on Sunday, though they again failed to cash as a 6.5-point chalk.

    Carolina has been up-and-down all season, as well, but ended a two-game hiccup in Week 8. The Panthers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) dropped Tampa Bay 17-3 as a 1.5-point road underdog.

    “No one knows which Carolina club will show up for this one. The Panthers are one of the most mercurial teams in the league,” Cooley said. “Atlanta pulled out a quality win this week, but certainly something is amiss with the team. My best guess is that we’ll see some Falcons money, especially from the public, which I think we’d be happy with.”

    Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (no line)

    Philadelphia might well be the league’s No. 1 team, certainly by looking at the standings. The Eagles (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have won six and a row and cashed five straight, plowing past San Francisco 33-10 laying 13 points at home Sunday.

    As noted above, Denver still has to take a stern Week 8 test on Monday night in Kansas City. The Broncos (3-3 SU and ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four outings, losing the last two in embarrassing fashion. Denver was a 13.5-point home favorite against the New York Giants and lost outright 23-10, then got bageled at San Diego 21-0 giving 1 point.

    “Two teams quickly trending in opposite directions,” Cooley said. “The Eagles look like the NFC’s best team, and we’ll see if Denver can save some face Monday night and get back on track a bit. If nothing outrageous happens to the Broncos on Monday, we’ll open them around touchdown ‘dogs at Philly.”

    Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

    It took nearly half the season, but Seattle finally caught up to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) won a wild one Sunday against Houston, getting a Jimmy Graham touchdown catch in the waning seconds to claim a 41-38 home victory as a 6-point chalk.

    Washington is competitive every single week, yet finds itself with a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS record. The Redskins were within 26-19 Sunday against visiting Dallas, but Kirk Cousins threw a last-minute pick-six, cementing a 33-19 loss as a 3-point pup.

    “Unfortunately, the injury bug just keeps biting for Washington,” Cooley said, alluding primarily to the Redskins’ battered offensive line. “But Jay Gruden is a great offensive mind, and he was able to keep his team in the game with half an O-line against Dallas. The public doesn’t back off Seattle, even if the Seahawks aren’t at their best, so we wanted to be generous with this number, especially considering the state the Redskins are in.”
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-02-2017 at 02:19 AM.

  3. #3
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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9
    Monty Andrews

    Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)

    Bengals QB protection issues vs. Jaguars' sack-happy defense

    The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been the most consistent team in football this season, but they remain very much in the hunt for the AFC South title as they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville's four victories have come by at least 21 points, and they're coming off a much-needed bye week following a 27-0 rout of Indianapolis a week earlier. Yet, as impressive as the Jaguars offense has been at times, it's the defense - which has a sizeable advantage this week - that could lead this team to a division crown.

    The Bengals' offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Andy Dalton so far this season, giving up sacks on better than nine percent of dropbacks - the fourth-worst rate in the league. Cincinnati has surrendered 22 total sacks through its first seven games, while their 48 passes defended rank behind only the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals allowed a sack on just 6.8 percent of their dropbacks last season, and their eight interceptions thrown match their entire 2016 total.

    Dalton isn't likely to get much relief this weekend against a Jaguars pass rush considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to recording four defensive touchdowns, 10 interceptions and nine forced fumbles, Jacksonville leads the NFL with a whopping 33 sacks - six more than the second-place Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have produced a sack on 12.3 percent of opposing dropbacks so far this season, miles ahead of the 5.7-percent rate they recorded last season.

    Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5, 42)

    Rams' drive-extension prowess vs. Giants' third-down doldrums

    The Rams carry a two-game winning streak into Sunday afternoon's encounter with a Giants team that might already be looking toward next season. Los Angeles is coming off a bye following Week 7's 33-0 dismantling of the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, and still boasts one of the league's top offenses as we near the midway point of the season. One of the main reasons: An elite third-down offensive showing that runs in stark contrast to the Giants' inability to sustain drives.

    Led by an emerging star in quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams have been sensational at keeping the football, converting nearly 49 percent of their third-down opportunities - the best rate in the NFL. Los Angeles went a stunning 13-for-19 on third downs in the one-sided win over the Cardinals, allowing it to retain possession for more than 39 minutes. It's a complete 180-degree turn for the Rams, who finished dead last in 2016 by converting just 31 percent of their third-down chances.

    The Giants can sympathize with last year's version of the Rams - in more ways than one. With just one win in its first seven games, New York is off to a nightmare start - and its third-down troubles are a part of that. The Giants have earned a first down or points on just 32.6 percent of their third downs; only San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland have been less prolific. And with Eli Manning down to just a few worthwhile offensive options, that number could dip even further.

    Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 44)

    Broncos' red-zone struggles vs. Eagles' relentless offense

    You can't often make the case that a Week 7 game is "must-win", but the Broncos can ill afford to risk falling another game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West as they visit the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. Denver comes into the week having lost three in a row, and will need to improve its red zone offense if it has any hope of overtaking the Chiefs atop the division. And even that might not matter against an Eagles team that has been one of the NFL's most dangerous inside its opponents' 20-yard line.

    The Broncos are 2 1/2 games back of Kansas City following Monday's 29-19 loss to the Chiefs, and their red-zone offense is at least partly to blame for Denver's recent struggles. The Broncos converted 1-of-3 red-zone trips into touchdowns in the loss to Kansas City, and has scored TDs from inside the opponents' 20-yard line at a 44-percent rate; only Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Arizona have been less prolific in the red zone.

    Meanwhile, what a difference a year has made in Philadelphia. Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent. And there's a good chance of that trend continuing, given that the Eagles have converted on 87.5 percent of red-zone trips over their past three games, and are scoring red-zone touchdowns at a 76.9-percent pace at home.

    Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)

    Redskins' dynamite discipline vs. Seahawks' flag follies

    The Washington Redskins have a difficult task ahead of them as they venture to hostile CenturyLink Field for an NFC encounter with the Seattle Seahawks. Washington has just one win over its first three road games, and adding to that total will be tough against a Seattle team that has won each of its first three home games. But Washington might have an equalizer: A pattern of disciplined play that could come in handy against the penalty-happy Seahawks.

    Washington has been on its best behavior through seven games, incurring just 38 total penalties for a league-low 291 yards against. The Redskins have been particularly disciplined when they have the ball, picking up as scant 13 offensive penalties for 105 yards. Even in Sunday's 33-19 home defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Washington was charged with just five penalties for 32 yards while drawing eight flags for 89 yards against the visitors.

    The Seahawks are running neck-and-neck with the Rams for NFC West supremacy, but they'll need to work on their discipline moving forward. Seattle has been flagged an NFL-high 66 times on the season, while the 534 total yards they've surrendered via penalty are sixth-most in the league. The Seahawks also rank last overall in penalty flag differential (minus-22) and penalty yard differential (minus-156). If that trend continues, Washington could make a game of it.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 03:05 AM.

  4. #4
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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 9


    Thursday, November 2

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    BUFFALO (5 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 5) - 11/2/2017, 8:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, November 5

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    DENVER (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 1) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    LA RAMS (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 128-179 ATS (-68.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CINCINNATI (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    ATLANTA (4 - 3) at CAROLINA (5 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 6) at HOUSTON (3 - 4) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at TENNESSEE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    ARIZONA (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 8) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    WASHINGTON (3 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    SEATTLE is 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    KANSAS CITY (6 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    OAKLAND (3 - 5) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
    MIAMI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Monday, November 6

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    DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
    DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 03:06 AM.

  5. #5
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    NFL

    Week 9


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, November 2

    BUFFALO @ NY JETS
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
    NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    NY Jets is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games


    Sunday, November 5

    INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

    TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

    BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
    Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

    ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
    Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 16 of Atlanta's last 21 games
    Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing Atlanta

    CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    Jacksonville is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

    LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS
    LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
    NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams

    DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

    ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO
    Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
    San Francisco is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Arizona

    WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
    Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

    KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS
    Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

    OAKLAND @ MIAMI
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
    Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
    Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland


    Monday, November 6

    DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
    Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
    Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 03:07 AM.

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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….

    — Carolina covered twice in its last ten home games.

    — Buffalo is 5-1-1 vs spread in its last seven games.

    — Colts are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a divisional road underdog.

    — Bengals covered once in last six tries as a road underdog.

    — Arizona is 4-14 vs spread in its last 18 games.

    — Denver is 9-17 as a non-divisional road underdog.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 03:10 AM.

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 9


    Thursday's game
    Bills (5-2) @ Jets (3-5)— Buffalo is +14 in turnovers; they’ve had 3+ takeaways in their last four games. Bills are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 6 or less points. Jets lost last three games by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 39-13 in 2nd half of those games. Last time Jets trailed at halftime was Week 2. Gang Green is 3-0 allowing 20 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more than 20 points. Buffalo (-8) beat Jets 21-12 in season opener, outrushing Jets 190-38, converting 8-17 on 3rd down; Bills are 6-2 in last eight series games, but lost five of last seven visits here. Three of last four Jet games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-7 vs spread. Since 2014, Buffalo is 1-5-1 vs spread as a road favorite.

    Sunday's games
    Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1)— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR’s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they’re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ’13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ’86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.

    Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6)— Rams won four of their last five games; they’re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants’ last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ’01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.

    Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2)— New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they’re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs’ opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs’ last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.

    Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3)— Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven’t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette’s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven’t been plus in TO’s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they’re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.

    Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3)— This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD’s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they’re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.

    Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4)— Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD’s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they’re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD”s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.

    Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3)— Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD’s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they’re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.

    Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8)— Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won’t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they’re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers’ last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.

    Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2)— 8 of 15 TD’s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they’re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they’ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD’s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.

    Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3)— Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they’re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ’75- their last visit here was in ’05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.

    Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3)— Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they’ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they’ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ’14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ’07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.

    Monday's game
    Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3)— Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn’t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt— Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers’ absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn’t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 03:07 AM.

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    Wiseguys are advising that these Week 9 NFL lines are going to move

    The Los Angeles Rams are allowing just 11 points per game over their last three contests and are coming off a shutout win over the Arizona Cardinals.

    Game to bet on now

    Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

    The Jags have quietly and efficiently built the best defense in the league. They’re the best against the pass, first in QB sacks, tops in points allowed and sixth in total yards allowed.

    They do give up some yards on the ground, and that’s where the 3-5 Bengals will have to attack in they want to hang in and remain viable in the AFC North.

    Oddly, the Jags seem to be worse (1-2) at home than they are on the road (3-1), but that doesn’t mean much considering the small sample size.

    Jacksonville needs to keep pace with Tennessee, which has won two straight and appears to be getting better. There’s an opportunity to bet both sides and win both ways (also known as middle) with the line opening at -2 in some books and moving to -4 in others.

    Game to wait on

    Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

    The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of nearly nine points a game but somehow have managed to stay afloat in a competitive AFC East division.

    Much of their ugly point differential is attributable to that 40-0 turd they dropped at Baltimore, but many teams struggle playing on Thursday night.

    At any rate, Miami will benefit from a few extra days of rest and will be facing Raiders team that will be making its second straight cross-country trip to the East Coast.

    The problem is at quarterback, where Jay Cutler has been out with a rib injury. He’ll play if he can, but if he can’t go, then Matt Moore (zero TDs, two INTs vs. the Ravens) will be thrown to the wolves again.

    It might be a good idea to hang on a bit, as this game might be a PK if there is good news on Cutler.

    Total to watch

    Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (43.5)

    Can it get any worse for the Giants? They were out of the playoffs before September was over, their best offensive player (Odell Beckham Jr.) is done for the year and there is talk that it might be time to sit down Eli Manning and get a look at a backup who might be competing for the No. 1 job when training camp starts next summer.

    Yikes.

    The Giants are one of six teams averaging fewer than 300 total years a game, and appear to be catching the Rams at a bad time. LA is allowing just 11 points per game over its last three contests and is coming off a shutout win over the Cardinals.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 01:11 PM.

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 9


    Thursday, November 2

    Buffalo @ NY Jets

    Game 307-308
    November 2, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    131.435
    NY Jets
    135.070
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 3 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Buffalo
    by 3 1/2
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (+3 1/2); Over



    Sunday, November 5

    Denver @ Philadelphia

    Game 451-452
    November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Denver
    130.414
    Philadelphia
    136.531
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 6
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 9
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (+9); Over

    LA Rams @ NY Giants


    Game 453-454
    November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    135.530
    NY Giants
    134.150
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 1 1/2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 3 1/2
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+3 1/2); Under

    Tampa Bay @ New Orleans


    Game 455-456
    November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    132.667
    New Orleans
    137.064
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 7
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (+7); Under

    Cincinnati @ Jacksonville


    Game 457-458
    November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    129.765
    Jacksonville
    137.918
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 8
    36
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 4 1/2
    39 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (-4 1/2); Under

    Atlanta @ Carolina


    Game 459-460
    November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    136.214
    Carolina
    130.345
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 6
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    Pick
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    Under

    Indianapolis @ Houston


    Game 461-462
    November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    120.260
    Houston
    140.952
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 20 1/2
    66
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 13
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-13); Over

    Baltimore @ Tennessee


    Game 463-464
    November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Baltimore
    127.796
    Tennessee
    134.419
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 6 1/2
    49
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 3
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (-3); Over

    Arizona @ San Francisco


    Game 465-466
    November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    122.638
    San Francisco
    122.286
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    Even
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Arizona
    by 2 1/2
    39
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+2 1/2); Over

    Washington @ Seattle


    Game 467-468
    November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    134.374
    Seattle
    135.883
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 1 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 7 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+7 1/2); Over

    Kansas City @ Dallas


    Game 469-470
    November 5, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    140.489
    Dallas
    133.073
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 7 1/2
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    Pick
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    Over

    Oakland @ Miami


    Game 471-472
    November 5, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Oakland
    130.579
    Miami
    121.724
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Oakland
    by 9
    47
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Oakland
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (-3); Over



    Monday, November 6

    Detroit @ Green Bay

    Game 473-474
    November 6, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    137.795
    Green Bay
    130.270
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 7 1/2
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 2 1/2
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (-2 1/2); Over
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 01:12 PM.

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    NFL

    Thursday, November 2


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Bills at Jets
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3, 42.5)

    The Buffalo Bills aim to grab a share of the division lead while giving the spiraling New York Jets plenty of space in the cellar on Thursday, when the AFC East rivals meet at MetLife Stadium. Buffalo, which is off to its best start since 2008, has won two in a row to remain one-half game behind first-place New England while New York has dropped three in a row following a promising 3-2 start.

    Bills rookie coach Sean McDermott was all smiles this week and added he's "extremely proud" of his club but cautioned that "nobody gives out awards for 5-2." Perhaps, but Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin and is third in the league with 115 points allowed, and continued opportunistic defensive play like that could go a long way in helping the team end its 17-season playoff drought. The Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 setback against Atlanta. "Too many mistakes in the fourth quarter," New York coach Todd Bowles told reporters. "Can't happen. Can't put the ball on the ground. Can't have timely mistakes."

    TV:
    8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Bills (-1.5) - Jets (+3.5) + home field (-3) = Bills -2

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Bills opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number was bet down slightly to the key number of 3. The total hit betting boards at 42 and was bumped up a full point to 43 early in the week before dropping slightly to 42.5 on Thursday morning.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Bills - S J. Poyer (Probable, Knee), G R. Incognito (Probable, Ankle), C E. Wood (Probable, Ankle), CB E. Gaines (Doubtful, Hamstring), TE C. Clay (Doubtful, Knee), LB R. Humber (Out Indefinitely, Thumb), S C. Anderson (Out, Arm), TE K. Towbridge (I-R, Ankle).

    Jets - T B. Shell (Questionable, Neck), CB B. Skrine (Questionable, Concussion), CB M. Claiborne (Questionable, Foot), RB M. Forte (Questionable, Knee), DL M. Wilkerson (Questionable, Shoulder), S T. Brooks (Questionable, Hamstring), OL B. Qvale (Questionable, Toe), WR J. Kerley (Questionable, Possible Suspension), FB L. Thomas (Out, Concussion), LB L. Mauldin (Questionable, Back), TE J. Leggett (Out, Knee), CB X. Coleman (I-R, Shoulder), WR C. Peake (Out, Ankle), LB D. Donahue (Out, Elbow), LB E. Robinson (I-R, Groin), TE C. Gragg (I-R, Knee), WR Q. Enunwa (I-R, Neck), S D. Middleton (I-R, Pectoral), CB B. Keeton (I-R, Knee), CB J. Clark (I-R, Knee), WR B. Estime (I-R, Achilles), WR D. Smith (I-R, Knee).

    WEATHER REPORT:


    Low 60s / minimal winds (6-7mph) / 2% chance of precipitation

    ABOUT THE BILLS (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U):
    LeSean McCoy recorded season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (151) while registering his third touchdown in two games during Sunday's 34-14 romp over Oakland. The versatile 29-year-old added at least six receptions for the fourth time this season and rolled up 159 yards from scrimmage in Buffalo's season-opening 21-12 win over New York. Tyrod Taylor, who has impressed McDermott with a pair of strong performances since the team's bye week, threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo's 37-31 setback against New York on Sept. 15, 2016. The Bills added a jolt to their passing game by acquiring wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline.

    ABOUT THE JETS (3-5 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U):
    Frustrations are mounting as the losses pile up for New York, which saw veteran Matt Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons. Josh McCown, who recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent), has thrown nine touchdown passes in his last four games after being limited to three in his first four. Robby Anderson, who leads the team with 435 receiving yards, has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks.

    TRENDS:


    * Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
    * Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    * Under is 9-1 in Bills last 10 games on fieldturf.
    * Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC East.
    * Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The road fave Bills are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 51 percent of the totals selections.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-02-2017 at 05:12 PM.

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    Best and worst bets at the halfway mark of the NFL season
    Ashton Grewal

    Do you remember when the Oakland Raiders were getting all sorts of Super Bowl buzz back in early September before the start of the regular season? A lot of bettors would like a do over on that one.

    The halfway point of the NFL season is here and it’s a good time to reflect on the best and worst bets after the first eight weeks’ worth of action on the gridiron.

    Best ATS teams

    Buffalo Bills (5-1-1 ATS)


    Big Cat and PFT remind us every week that nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Coincidentally, no one covers the spread like the Bills either. Buffalo is 5-1-1 against the spread and has won outright as an underdog three times already this year.

    Philadelphia Eagles (6-2 ATS)

    When they’re not standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona, the Eagles are taking it to the limit in the NFC East. Philly is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS with wins over the Panthers, Chargers and Redskins. The Eagles are averaging 29 points per game and lead in the league in point differential at + 76.

    Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 ATS)

    The Chiefs traded up in the first round of the draft last spring to select a guy they thought would be replacing Alex Smith under center. Smith responded by playing the best half season of his pro career.

    Smith has shed the moniker of Captain Checkdown with 2181 passing yards and a league-high 8.42 yards per passing attempt.

    Kansas City upset the Patriots at Gillette Stadium as an 8-point underdog on the Thursday season kickoff game and clipped the Eagles 27-20 in Week 2. The Chiefs are 6-2 straight up and against the spread heading into this weekend’s game against the Cowboys.

    Worst ATS Team

    Arizona Cardinals (1-6 ATS)


    Zona’s season was probably toast the minute David Johnson’s wrist exploded Week 1 against the Detroit Lions. The Cardinals stand at 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS and are fresh off a 33-0 shutout loss to the Rams.

    Arizona heads into the second half of the season with a 33-year-old career backup at quarterback (Drew Stanton), a 34-year-old as its leading receiver (Larry Fitzgerald) and a 32-year-old who’s been dumped by two teams in less than a year (Adrian Peterson) as its No. 1 running back.

    Best Over Team

    Houston Texans (Over 5-2)


    The Chiefs are actually the best over team through eight weeks (Over is 6-2 in their games), but we already talked about them in the best ATS teams section.

    The Texans metamorphosis needs to be discussed here. Houston’s identity used to be about its elite defense and borderline unwatchable offense. The script has been flipped ever since Deshaun Watson became the starting quarterback. The Texans are averaging 34.6 points per game since rookie took over and they’re giving up 30 points per game over their last five games.

    The over is 5-0 in Houston’s last five games and 5-2 on the season.

    Best Under Team

    Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 1-7)


    The Steelers scored an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game in 2016 and this year they’re finding the end zone only twice (2.0) a game. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had 29 TD passes in 14 games last season and has only 10 (with nine interceptions) through eight games this year.

    The defense in Pittsburgh is rock solid helping the Steelers finish under the total in seven of their eight contests.

    Season Win Total Review

    Vegas and offshore sportsbooks do us the courtesy of setting over/under lines on each NFL team’s season wins total for the upcoming season. Everyone pounces on these lines and bets them for some early NFL action.

    No Surprises Here

    The Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers were both pegged with 4.5 season win totals and both find teams are still in search of their first win of the campaign.

    Did Not See That Coming

    The Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills have surprised a lot of casual and dedicated NFL bettors this year. The Rams are one victory formation away from surpassing their 5.5 season win total while the Bills are keeping pace with the Patriots in the AFC East and need just two more wins to top their preseason projection according to Vegas.

    Should Have Seen That Coming

    The 2016 Oakland Raiders were extremely fortunate to reach 12 wins on the season. We wrote a few articles saying the bubble was bound to burst on this overachieving side in the 2017 campaign, but the Raiders were one of the most popular offseason Super Bowl bets and people were gladly backing the Silver and Black to go over their 9.5 season win total.

    Oakland is dead last in the AFC West and has fewer wins than the New York Jets after the first eight weeks of the season. Yikes.

    Season Long Trends

    Underdogs are barking this season despite the recent hot streak for chalk. Teams getting points were 53-35-1 against the spread after Week 6, but faves struck back in big way going 18-8-2 ATS over the last two weeks. Underdogs are still 61-53-3 ATS (53.5% win rate) on the year.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 03:09 AM.

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    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….

    — Jets are 17-7 vs spread in last 24 games as a home underdog.

    — Chiefs are 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 games.

    — Oakland covered once in its last six games.

    — 49ers covered nine of their last 11 divisional games.

    — Houston is 10-3-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

    — Eagles covered nine of their last eleven games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-05-2017 at 12:43 AM.

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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)

    5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)

    4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)

    3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)

    2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)

    1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- bad spread because of Watson injury

    Season record of top 6 picks: 18-30

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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)- L

    5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)- L

    4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)- L

    3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)- W

    2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)- W

    1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- W

    Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    13) Before we go over this week’s games, some thoughts about today’s shooting in Texas.

    If you can’t go to church and feel safe, something is bleeping wrong. 24 people died in a mass shooting in a Texas church Sunday. Do churches need metal detectors? Is this what our country is coming to? Seriously?

    I’m tired of offering thoughts/prayers to victims; you go to church to pray, but right now, there are little kids in surgery because a crazy person shot up a church. Enough already.

    Jets 34, Bills 21— Buffalo came in to this game +14 in turnovers for season, left +11. Jets ran ball for 194 yards, ended a 3-game losing skid. Jets are only 4-5, but they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2. By the way, I vote for the NFL to eliminate Thursday night games and switch to Monday night doubleheaders. Think it would be better for the league.

    Eagles 51, Broncos 23— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night, then had 3rd straight road game here. Denver has now lost four games in a row, scoring 10-0-3-23 points; they’re also 0-4 on the road, losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Eagles won their last seven games, would be #1 seed in NFC if the playoffs started today.

    Rams 51, Giants 17— Performances like this get coaches/GM’s fired. Rams scored eight of the first nine times they had the ball- they’re 4-0 in true road games this season. Giants have a lot of interesting decisions to make this fall/winter.

    It takes a whole roster for a team to be good; reserve LB Cory Littleton has blocked a punt in two of the Rams’ last three games. Rams’ special teams coach John Fassel is the son of Jim Fassel, who led the Giants to Super Bowl XXXV.

    Saints 30, Buccaneers 10— New Orleans won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); their defense is the story. Saints allowed 8 TD’s on 65 drives during their winning streak. Buccaneers have now lost five games in a row, as teams that were on HBO’s Hard Knocks in the summer continue to struggle that season.

    Bucs are 0-4 on road, losing by 7-5-3-20 points. Jon Gruden’s name will be mentioned a lot in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston sat out the 2nd half (shoulder), which could be really bad news for the Bucs, who didn’t have a play longer than 15 yards in this game.

    Jaguars 23, Bengals 7— Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 yards for the whole game- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, Jaguars were 12-18. Total yardage was 407-148.

    Jags de-activated Leonard Fournette for this game because he is lapsing with his off-field responsibilities, like getting his treatments for his ankle, and missing the team picture. Jax’ville hasn’t allowed a second half TD in their last four games, outscoring teams 43-6.

    Panthers 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta/Denver both played their 3rd straight week on the road, neither team won or covered. Panthers allowed only two offensive TD’s in their last three games- they’re 6-3 with a bye week coming up in two weeks. Saints lead NFC South with a 6-2 mark, while the Falcons’ Super Bowl hangover continues— Atlanta is 4-5.

    Colts 20, Texans 14— Loss of star rookie QB Watson was obvious here; Texans’ first TD was scored by their defense. Houston had scored 33+ points in its last five games, but with Watson out, not so much.

    Tom Savage led Texans down field on last drive, getting to the Colts’ 10-yard line, but Savage got sacked/fumbled as time ran out. Indy is now 1-4 on the road.

    Titans 23, Ravens 20— Tennessee allowed only three TD’s on 30 drives in winning their last three games- they’re 3-1 at home. Teams coming off a Thursday night game are now 10-4-1 vs spread; the Thursday winner is 5-2-1 vs spread in their next game, the loser 5-2, with Miami’s result pending Sunday night.

    Redskins 17, Seahawks 14— Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) with new OT Brown in lineup, but they missed three FGs, and lost despite outgaining Washington 437-244. Seahawks also had 16 penalties for 138 yards. Big win for the Redskins, whose OL has been almost totally rebuilt in last couple of weeks. Right now, Seahawks are tied with Dallas for second Wild Card slot.

    Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17— Both teams that played on Monday night last week lost road games this week; tough scheduling spot. Dallas converted 7-12 on 3rd down, ran ball for 131 yards as Elliott keeps skirting the NFL’s suspension during the week and opposing tacklers on Sunday. I’m not a big Alex Smith fan; I know his career won-loss record is 86-68-1, which is very good, just don’t think he takes enough chances to ever be a great QB.

    Raiders 27, Dolphins 24— Oakland won for only second time in last seven games overall, second time in last 10 meetings with Miami; they’ve scored 26+ points in their wins this season, 17 or less in their five losses. Teams that played on Thursday are 10-5-1 vs spread in their next game, when they have three extra days to rest. Dolphins pushed the spread with a late touchdown. Favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread this weekend; over is 5-7.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-06-2017 at 01:11 PM.

  15. #15
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    NFL

    Monday, November 6


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    Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Lions at Packers
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    Matthew Stafford has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts and yards for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game.

    Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2, 43.5)

    The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night's clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions' issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.

    Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start - a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team's 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured - 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday's 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. "Just not executing enough," Stafford told reporters. "Whether it’s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game - whatever it is, we’ve just got to execute better.”

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Lions (0) - Packers (4) + home field (-3) = Packers +1

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Lions opened as 2.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the Packers brought that line as low as +1 Sunday morning, before fading back to +2. The total hit the betting board at 43 and is up slightly to 43.5.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "The Detroit Lions will look to overcome one of the ugliest stains in the NFL as they look to improve on a 1-25 mark as a virus in this series. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines the Packers will try an overcome an equally ugly 0-3 SU and ATS record at home in games they played without Rodgers the last time he broke his collarbone in 2013." - Marc Lawrence.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Lions - RB Dwayne Washington (Questionable, Concussion), S Don Carey (Questionable, Knee), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Paul Worrilow (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Questionable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tim Lelito (I-R, Thigh).

    Packers - TE Martellus Bennett (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Questionable, Ankle), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LS Taybor Pepper (Questionable, Foot), LB Joe Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), S Morgan Burnett (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (Questionable, Back), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Migraine), OT Jason Spriggs (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Demetri Goodson (Questionable, Knee), LB Vince Biegel (Questionable, Monday)

    ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):
    Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit's ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).

    ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):
    Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.

    TRENDS:


    * Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

    * Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.

    * Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.

    * Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

    * Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.

    CONSENSUS:
    The road fave Lions are picking up 65 percent of the action on the spread and Under is grabbing 61 percent of the totals selections.


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 11-06-2017 at 01:12 PM.

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