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Thread: Friday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

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    Default Friday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

    Trends and Indexes

    Friday, October 13

    Good Luck on day #285 of 2017!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    NFL trends for this weekend:

    — Cleveland is 3-12 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

    — Chiefs covered 10 of their last 11 games.

    — Denver is 6-1 vs spread in game after its last seven byes.

    — Falcons are 10-20 vs spread in last 30 games as a favorite.

    — Arizona is 3-13 vs spread in its last 16 games.

    — Houston is 8-1 in last nine games as a non-divisional home favorite.


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I’m looking for this weekend……

    Things I’m looking for this weekend……
    13) 49ers are playing on road for third week in row; since 1997, underdogs are 23-34-1 vs spread if they’re on road for the 3rd week in a row.

    12) LSU is honoring the 2007 national champs Saturday night, which means Les Miles will be in the house. Maybe if they ask him really nice, he’ll come back and coach the Bayou Bengals, who already have a 37-7 loss at Miss State and a home loss to Troy this season.

    11) Dolphins are 2-2, despite scoring three offensive TD’s in four games; their OL coach being fired for alleged drug use, and their having played one home game so far. Miami visits Atlanta this week, a Falcon team coming off a bye— Falcons are 6-2 after their last eight byes.

    10) TCU is the last unbeaten team in the Big X; Kansas State covered 9 of its last 11 tries as a home underdog, but they’re coming off an OT loss to Texas.

    9) Giants lost 3 of their top 4 WR’s to injury last week, then suspended one of their best DB’s for four weeks after a sideline confrontation with the coach LW. Giants are a double digit underdog in Denver this week; an 0-6 start would have people calling for more heads to roll.

    8) Coming off of wins over USC/Oregon, Washington State has a trap game in Berkeley, where the Golden Bears are 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games as a home underdog.

    7) Chiefs are rolling at 5-0, but they lost twice to Pittsburgh LY. Roethlisberger is coming off one of the worst games of his career (5 INT’s vs Jaguars). Can Steelers bounce back here?

    6) Last three Oklahoma-Texas games were all decided by 7 or less points, with Longhorns 4-0 vs spread in last four series games. Texas State Fair is the backdrop for this historic rivalry, with Sooners coming off a loss to Iowa State. when they were favored by 31 points.

    5) It is Week 6 and Bills-Patriots-Jets are all tied atop AFC East, at 3-2. Buffalo has the week off, so winner of Patriot-Jet game is atop AFC East by himself. Jets won their last three games, but can their offense put up points against a struggling New England defense?

    4) San Diego State is 6-0 and Boise State is in the rare situation of being a road underdog in a Mountain West game. Broncos are 37-18 vs spread in last 55 road games, but they were favored in vast majority of those games. Aztecs are 29-13-1 vs spread in their last 43 conference games.

    3) Cleveland Browns passed on Deshaun Watson not once, but twice in LY’s draft; you think he remembers (undoubtedly, he does)? Texans scored 124 points in their last three games. Browns were held to 18 or less points in four of their five games.

    2) Florida State is 1-6 for the first time since 1976, when I was a senior in HS and Bobby Bowden was in his first year as the Seminoles’ coach. FSU lost to Miami last week for the first time in eight years— can they win here and get their season jumpstarted?

    1) Minnesota is 14-5 vs spread in its last 19 home games; they beat the Packers in Green Bay’s first visit to the Vikings’ new dome LY. Packers are playing their third dome game in six weeks to start the season; they’re 8-3 vs spread in their last 11 games.

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    Friday's ALCS playoff betting preview and odds: Yankees at Astros

    Masahiro Tanaka gets the Game 1 nod after putting together the best start for New York in the ALDS - a seven-inning effort in which he scattered three hits and struck out seven without allowing a run.

    New York Yankees at Houston Astros (A: +150, H: -160, Total: 8)

    Series tied 0-0

    The New York Yankees already stared down four elimination games in the postseason and knocked off the American League's top seed with a Game 5 victory over the Cleveland Indians in the AL Division Series on Wednesday, and things are not getting any easier. The Yankees will try to avoid falling into another quick hole when they visit the Houston Astros for Game 1 of the AL Championship Series on Friday night.

    New York's hero in Game 5 of the ALDS turned out to be shortstop Didi Gregorius, who homered twice off probable AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber and went 3-for-4 in the clinching game after going 1-for-13 in the first four games of the series. "Now that I'm here, being in this unbelievable, unbelievable organization, everything, all the history and everything that's been here with the team, and guys are helping each other, backing each other up, everybody is protecting each other, it's the best thing because everybody is together and the team is really united," Gregorius told reporters. The Yankees (241) were the only team in the AL to hit more home runs in the regular season than the Astros (238), who have been sitting around since polishing off a four-game victory over the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS on Monday and are happy to hold homefield advantage over New York. "The Indians won over 100 games and had the best record in the American League, but I don't think that means anything," Houston shortstop Carlos Correa told MLB.com. "It doesn't mean they're the toughest opponent. The Yanks are tough, as well, as they just proved, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to beat the team with the best record in the AL. That's huge for them. They bring momentum into the series. It's just good to start at home."

    TV:
    8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

    INJURY REPORT:


    Yankees - SP L. Cessa (Out For Season, Ribs), SP M. Pineda (Out For Season, Elbow).

    Astros - CF J. Marisnick (Out For Season, Thumb), SP D. Paulino (Out For Season, Suspension), RP J. Gustave (Out For Season, Elbow).

    PITCHING MATCHUP:
    Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 1.59)

    Tanaka gets the Game 1 nod after putting together the best start for New York in the ALDS - a seven-inning effort in Game 3 in which he scattered three hits and struck out seven without allowing a run. The Japan native is enjoying a string of 14 consecutive scoreless frames going back to the regular season and owns 22 strikeouts in that span. Tanaka suffered through his worst start of the season against Houston on May 14, when he was roughed up for eight runs and seven hits - four homers - in 1 2/3 innings.

    Keuchel gets the Game 1 nod after Justin Verlander was used for four innings of relief in the clinching game of the ALDS in Boston. The 29-year-old Keuchel started Game 2 of the ALDS and breezed through 5 2/3 frames, striking out seven while allowing one run, to make it four starts in a row surrendering two or fewer runs going back to the regular season. Keuchel is 5-2 with a 1.24 ERA in seven career starts against New York, including six scoreless innings in the 2015 wild card game at Yankee Stadium.

    TRENDS:


    * Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
    * Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
    * Astros are 5-1 in Keuchel's last 6 starts vs. American League East.
    * Over is 5-0 in Tanaka's last 5 road starts.
    * Under is 6-0 in Astros' last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
    * Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the home favorite Astros at a rate of 70 percent and the Over is picking up 70 percent of the totals action.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-13-2017 at 12:08 PM.

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    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Friday, October 13


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    NY YANKEES (95 - 73) at HOUSTON (104 - 62) - 7:05 PM
    MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY YANKEES are 11-23 (-14.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
    NY YANKEES are 3-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday this season.
    NY YANKEES are 50-44 (-6.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    NY YANKEES are 8-17 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 104-62 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    HOUSTON is 81-38 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    NY YANKEES are 50-33 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    HOUSTON is 60-55 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 50-43 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 34-39 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 17-23 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 5-2 (+2.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
    5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

    MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
    TANAKA is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.86 and a WHIP of 1.701.
    His team's record is 1-4 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)

    DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
    KEUCHEL is 5-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.789.
    His team's record is 5-2 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.3 units)

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, October 13


    New York @ Houston
    Astros are 5-2 against New York this season, winning 2 of 3 at home.

    Tanaka is 2-0, 0.00 (14 IP) in his last two starts; Over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts. New York is 6-9 in his road starts this season. Tanaka is 1-1, 1.50 in two career postseason starts. Astros scored 8 runs in 1.2 IP off Tanaka May 14 in NY, a 10-7 Houston win.

    Keuchel is 3-1, 2.28 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts went over. He is 3-0, 2.29 in four postseason games (3 starts); Houston is 7-5 in his home starts. Keuchel allowed one (unearned run) in six IP at New York May 11, a 3-2 Astros win.

    AL Wild Card
    NYY 8-4 Minn -$255, O7.5

    NL Wild Card
    Ariz 11-8 Colo -$148, O8.5

    Hous 8-2 Bos, -$120, O7
    Hous 8-2 Bos, -$185, O8.5
    Bos 10-3 Hst, +$117, O9.5
    Hst 5-4 Bos, -$118, O8
    Astros win series, 3-1

    Clev 4-0 NYY -$130, U8.5
    Clev 9-8 NYY (13), -$210, O7
    NYY 1-0 Clev, -$109, U8.5
    NYY 7-3 Clev, -$150, O7.5
    NYY 5-2 Clev, +$165, N7
    New York wins series, 3-2

    Cubs 3-0 Wash +$135, U7.5
    Wash 6-3 Cubs, -$117, O8.5
    Cubs 2-1 Wash, +$105, U7.5
    Wash 5-0 Cubs, -$109, U7
    Cubs 9-8 Wash, -$115, O7.5
    Cubs win series, 3-2

    LA 9-4 Ariz -$270, O7.5
    LA 8-5 Ariz, -$142, O8
    LA 2-1 Ariz, -$115, U8
    Dodgers win series, 3-0




    MLB

    Friday, October 13


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    8:08 PM
    NY YANKEES vs. HOUSTON
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
    Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-13-2017 at 12:09 PM.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Friday, October 13



    NY Yankees @ Houston

    Game 901-902
    October 13, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Yankees
    (Tanaka) 16.211
    Houston
    (Keuchel) 19.603
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 3
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    -160
    8
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-160); Under
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-13-2017 at 12:09 PM.

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    Runs have been the betting story of the MLB postseason.

    Over is 11-7-1 (61.1%) with an average of 9.47 total runs score per game.

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    ALCS Cheat Sheet
    October 12, 2017


    2017 Head-to-Head Matchups (Houston 5-2, Under 5-2)

    Houston vs. New York (Yankee Stadium)
    May 11 - Astros 3 Yankees 2 (Under 7.5)
    May 12 - Astros 5 Yankees 1 (Under 8)
    May 14 - Yankees 11 Astros 6 (Over 9)
    May 14 - Astros 10 Yankees 7 (Over 8.5)

    New York vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
    June 30 - Yankees 13 Astros 4 (Over 8)
    July 1 - Astros 7 Yankees 6 (Over 9)
    July 2 - Astros 8 Yankees 1 (Over 8.5)


    The Indians and Astros were on a collision course to meet in the American League Championship Series following 100-win seasons. Houston finished off Boston in four games of the Divisional Series, while Cleveland led New York, 2-0 with three shots to eliminate the Yankees. However, the Indians fell apart by losing twice in the Bronx and then dropping Game 5 at home as a nearly -200 favorite as Cleveland won’t defend its American League pennant.

    The Yankees (91-71) rallied from a 3-0 deficit in the Wild Card round to knock out the Twins, 8-4, but lost the first two games of the ALDS to Cleveland. New York blew a five-run advantage in a 13-inning setback in Game 2, as it seemed like the season was over for Joe Girardi and the Yankees. But, the Bronx Bombers received a terrific pitching performance from Masahiro Tanaka in a Game 3 shutout, while the Yankees pulled away from the Indians in Game 4 to force the decisive Game 5 at Progressive Field.

    Shortshop Didi Gregorious belted a pair of home runs off Indians’ ace Corey Kluber to propel the Yankees to a 3-0 lead in Game 5 before Cleveland trimmed the deficit to 3-2. Brett Gardner’s base hit in the ninth inning brought home a pair of runs to send Cleveland to 0-5 in its past five postseason close-out games. The Yankees improved to 1-2 as an underdog in the playoffs as New York cashed as +170 ‘dogs, while advancing to their first ALCS since 2012.

    The Astros (101-61) didn’t want to fall in the same trap as the Indians after grabbing a 2-0 advantage in their series against the Red Sox. Houston dominated Boston twice by identical 8-2 scores at Minute Maid Park before getting tripped up in a 10-3 setback to the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Game 3. Boston was ready to force a Game 5 back in Houston as the Sox led the Astros, 3-2 in the eighth inning of Game 4 before Alex Bregman tied the game with a homer, followed by a Josh Reddick RBI single. Houston finished the job, 5-4 to advance to the ALCS for the first time since joining the American League and the first LCS appearance since 2005.

    The starting pitching advantage lies with the Astros, who showcase a pair of Cy Young winners in the first two games. Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA) shut down the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS, 8-2 as a -175 home favorite by tossing 5.2 innings of three-hit ball, while allowing one earned run. The Astros posted a 7-5 record in Keuchel’s 12 starts at Minute Maid Park, although the southpaw put together a solid 2.21 home ERA.

    Keuchel beat the Yankees as a short road underdog in May by yielding one unearned run in six innings of work as the Astros picked up a 3-2 victory. The left-hander has dominated the Yankees over the years by going 5-1 since 2015, including a 3-0 triumph in the Wild Card game in New York in 2015 by tossing six scoreless innings. Keuchel is undefeated in three postseason starts, which includes a 2-0 record at Minute Maid Park.

    Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA) takes the mound in Game 2 as picked up a pair of wins against the Red Sox in the ALDS. Verlander is unbeaten in six starts since getting traded from Detroit in late August, as the right-hander allowed two earned runs in six innings of Game 1 against Boston, while pitching out of the bullpen for the first time in his career in the Game 4 clincher by throwing 2.2 innings of relief. Verlander didn’t face the Yankees this season, but picked up a 6-1 victory at Yankee Stadium last season as a +120 underdog as he yielded one earned run in 6.2 innings.

    Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA) is coming off his two best starts of the season by striking out a combined 22 batters and walking only one in 14 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays and Indians. On the flip side, Tanaka’s worst start of the season came against Houston in mid-May as the Astros tagged him for eight earned runs and four homers in 1.2 innings of a 10-7 defeat. Girardi decided to give Tanaka the ball in Game 1 opposite Keuchel, reminiscent of their Wild Card matchup two years ago.

    Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA) rebounded from a poor performance in the Wild Card round against Minnesota by striking out nine and scattering four hits and three earned runs in a 7-3 triumph over Cleveland in Game 4 of the ALDS. The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts, but the right-hander struggled in two outings against Houston this season. Severino survived only eight innings in two starts, while giving up nine earned runs, but the Yankees rallied for an 11-6 victory in New York back in May in one of those outings.

    The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.54 ERA) at the trade deadline from Oakland, but things haven’t worked out well for the right-hander. Gray owns a dreadful 4-9 record in 13 starts with the Bronx Bombers, including a 2-5 mark on the highway. In his only start against Cleveland in the ALDS, Gray lasted 3.1 innings in the series opener and gave up three hits and three earned runs in a 4-0 defeat. In the five road losses with the Yankees, New York’s offense hasn’t helped out Gray by scoring one run or fewer in each defeat. It will be tough sledding for Gray in the series opener, as he allowed five earned runs in five innings in an 8-4 loss to Houston as a member of the Athletics back in June.

    The first two meetings this season finished UNDER the total, but the final five matchups sailed OVER the total, as the winning team scored at least seven runs each time. The home team in the LCS has won each of the past four series openers since 2015, while underdogs went 6-0 from 2012-14 in Game 1’s of the LCS.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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