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  1. #1
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    Default NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 ( Thur., Oct. 12 - Mon., Oct. 16 )

    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, October 12 - Monday, October 16

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    NFL opening line report: Winless, broken Giants travel to Denver for Week 6
    Patrick Everson

    “You have to wonder what the mindset is right now in that Giants locker room. They have no running game, and they could be without their top three receivers."

    Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)

    Philadelphia is off to a solid start behind second-year quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trampled Arizona in Week 5, winning 34-7 as a 6-point home favorite, with Wentz throwing four touchdown passes.

    Cam Newton weathered a media storm of his own making last week, then helped guide Carolina to a 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS mark, as well. The Panthers edged Detroit 27-24 as a 2-point road underdog Sunday.

    “A great matchup that will really give us some insight as to how good these teams really are,” Cooley said. “Carolina has been quite impressive the last couple of weeks, more so than we thought they were capable of. The Eagles have been on the radar all year, but have been even more dominant than anticipated. These teams are very close in the power ratings, so we assign the home team some advantage and see where the bettors go with it.”

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)

    Kansas City is the league’s lone undefeated team, and Alex Smith is playing like an MVP candidate. The Chiefs (5-0 SU and ATS) dropped Houston 42-34 laying 2 points in the Week 5 Sunday nighter, getting three TD passes from Smith – who has no interceptions this year.

    Pittsburgh entered the season among teams with the shortest odds to make the Super Bowl, but hasn’t looked anything like a championship squad. On Sunday, the Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) were 7.5-point home faves against Jacksonville and got run out of their own building, 30-9.

    Since K.C. was in the Sunday night contest, Bookmaker is waiting until Monday to post this line.

    “If the Chiefs play as expected Sunday night, and nothing out of the ordinary happens on the injury front, we’ll look to make them around field-goal favorites,” Cooley said. “The Steelers aren’t the team they displayed in Week 5, but there is certainly something amiss in Pittsburgh.”

    New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-9)

    New York went 11-5 SU in the regular season last year to advance to the playoffs. Through five weeks of this season, the Giants are like Jacques Cousteau, still “In Search Of” their first victory. (You youngsters, go look up that reference if you need to.)

    The Giants (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) got an Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown catch to take a 22-17 lead over San Diego early in the fourth quarter Sunday. But New York didn’t score the rest of the way, lost Beckham to a broken ankle and lost the game 27-22 as a 3-point home chalk.

    Meanwhile, Denver (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) is coming off its bye week, following a 16-10 Week 4 victory laying 3.5 points at home against Oakland.

    “You have to wonder what the mindset is right now in that Giants locker room,” Cooley said. “They have no running game, and they could be without their top three receivers. Going on the road to play in the altitude against a great defense is not what this team needed. Early action from the pros has moved this to -10.”

    In fact, later Sunday night, the line jumped to 10.5 at Bookmaker.eu.

    Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (no line)

    Green Bay looks to be firing on all cylinders, certainly on offense, after reaching 35 points two weeks in a row. On Sunday at Dallas, the Packers (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trailed 21-6 in the second quarter, but climbed out of that hole and left the Big D with a 35-31 victory catching 2.5 points. Aaron Rodgers capped the comeback with a 12-yard TD pass to Davante Adams with 11 seconds remaining.

    Minnesota (2-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 5 work to do, traveling to Chicago in the Monday night game. The Vikings should have quarterback Sam Bradford back tonight, but until that game wraps, Bookmaker.eu will hold off on setting the Pack-Vikes opening line.

    “It appears as if Bradford is going to play Monday night, so we’ll see how he looks throwing the ball and moving around in the pocket,” Cooley said. “Still, it’s unlikely we’ll make Minnesota a favorite. Aaron Rodgers is just playing too well right now, and the betting public is fully aware of that fact. The Vikings will likely be short home ‘dogs when this line is released Monday night.”

  3. #3
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    Wiseguys are advising that these Week 6 NFL lines are going to move
    Art Aronson

    The Patriots will have a few extra days to get ready for the Jets after playing Thursday night in Week 5.

    Game to bet now

    Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-3)


    What's up with Ben Roethlisberger? The face of the Steelers franchise for the last decade seems like he needs a career change, if his comments after last Sunday’s no-touchdown, five-interception game are any indication.

    “Maybe I don’t have it anymore,” the QB said after Ben and the Steelers were roasted at home by Jacksonville.

    Whatever it is that Roethlisberger has managed to lose, he had better find it in a hurry because the undefeated Chiefs are waiting. From a record standpoint (the Steelers are still in first place in the mediocre AFC North) the 3-point line might make sense, but expect KC money to soon flood in as Roethlisberger’s comments make their way into the consciousness of the betting public. KC is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, and betting on streaks to end have depleted a lot of bank accounts over the years.

    Game to wait on

    New England at New York Jets (+9.5)


    Tank this, say the Jets, who have to be considered the biggest surprise in the league so far. At 3-2 the NYJ are more than in the mix in a solid AFC East. And if New York can get it done against a shaky Patriots team this coming Sunday, it’ll be game on in the division.

    That’s a big if, and the entire NFL is waiting for Bill Belichick to straighten out his defense and begin to dominate again. The Pats will have had a few extra days to get ready for this one after their OK-but-not-great performance last Thursday at Tampa Bay.

    The Jets, meanwhile, have taken full advantage of their easy schedule and have put together a three-game win streak. It might be useful to sit this one out for a bit and wait for a line move. If heavy money comes down on NE, books might adjust the vig if they don’t want to take on the extra half-point to make it a 10-point line.

    Total to watch

    Miami at Atlanta (47.5)


    Dead last. That’s where the Dolphins rank in offense, which about where a team that can’t pass the ball or run the ball should be. The fact that Miami is 2-2 is somewhat of a minor miracle, and a testament to the team’s ability to stop the run.

    Whether they can stop Atlanta’s passing attack is another question, however. The Dolphins will probably have to score in the 20's to cover the 47.5, and that’s a tall order for a club that has barely averaged 10 points per game so far.

  4. #4
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    NFL Betting Stats Update:


    Road Teams: 9-5 ATS in Week 5 (40-33-1 on season)

    Dogs: 7-6 ATS (42-32-1)

    Road Dogs: 6-3 ATS (27-19-1)

  5. #5
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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 6


    Thursday, October 12

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    PHILADELPHIA (4 - 1) at CAROLINA (4 - 1) - 10/12/2017, 8:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Sunday, October 15

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    CLEVELAND (0 - 5) at HOUSTON (2 - 3) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    NEW ENGLAND (3 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 109-79 ATS (+22.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    MIAMI (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 1) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    DETROIT (3 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
    DETROIT is 131-171 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DETROIT is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    GREEN BAY (4 - 1) at MINNESOTA (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    CHICAGO (1 - 4) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 5) at WASHINGTON (2 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 59-92 ATS (-42.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    LA RAMS (3 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
    LA RAMS is 177-227 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 177-227 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 80-116 ATS (-47.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    LA RAMS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    LA RAMS is 65-95 ATS (-39.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    TAMPA BAY (2 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 3) - 10/15/2017, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
    ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 0) - 10/15/2017, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
    PITTSBURGH is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 2-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 2-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    LA CHARGERS (1 - 4) at OAKLAND (2 - 3) - 10/15/2017, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    OAKLAND is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    NY GIANTS (0 - 5) at DENVER (3 - 1) - 10/15/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
    DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
    DENVER is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
    DENVER is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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    Monday, October 16

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    INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 3) at TENNESSEE (2 - 3) - 10/16/2017, 8:30 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-12-2017 at 12:46 PM.

  6. #6
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    NFL

    Week 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, October 12

    9:25 PM
    PHILADELPHIA vs. CAROLINA
    Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
    Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games


    Sunday, October 15

    2:00 PM
    SAN FRANCISCO vs. WASHINGTON
    San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
    San Francisco is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games at home
    Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

    2:00 PM
    GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
    Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    Minnesota is 3-11-1 SU in its last 15 games ,when playing Green Bay

    2:00 PM
    NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    New England is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
    NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games

    2:00 PM
    MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
    Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
    Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home

    2:00 PM
    DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of New Orleans's last 14 games at home

    2:00 PM
    CLEVELAND vs. HOUSTON
    Cleveland is 2-12-1 ATS in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games

    2:00 PM
    CHICAGO vs. BALTIMORE
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
    Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games at home
    Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

    5:05 PM
    LOS ANGELES vs. JACKSONVILLE
    Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
    Jacksonville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games

    5:05 PM
    TAMPA BAY vs. ARIZONA
    Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Arizona
    Arizona17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

    5:25 PM
    PITTSBURGH vs. KANSAS CITY
    Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 14 games at home
    Kansas City is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Pittsburgh

    5:25 PM
    LOS ANGELES vs. OAKLAND
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
    Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

    9:30 PM
    NY GIANTS vs. DENVER
    NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Denver
    Denver is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


    Monday, October 16

    9:30 PM
    INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 24 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tennessee's last 24 games when playing Indianapolis


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-12-2017 at 12:46 PM.

  7. #7
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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 6


    Thursday's game
    Eagles (4-1) @ Panthers (4-1)—Philly won its last three games, scoring 20+ points in all five games this year; Iggles are 2-1 on road, with only loss 27-20 at unbeaten Chiefs- they’re 34-73 on 3rd down this year (46.6%). Philly allowed only 138 rushing yards on 44 tries (3.1/carry) in its last three games- they’re 2-5 in its last seven games as a road underdog. Carolina scored 33-27 points in winning as a road underdog their last two games; Panthers are 34-68 on 3rd down this uear, also very good. Eagles won four of last six series games; they split four visits to Charlotte. NFC East teams are 6-7 vs spread outside the division, 3-2 as road underdogs; NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites. Road team covered all five Carolina games this season.

    Sunday's games
    Dolphins (2-2) @ Falcons (3-1)— Miami’s OL coach was fired Monday for off-field issues, which can’t help an offense that scored 3 offensive TD’s on 42 drives in their 2-2 start. Last 3 games, Miami averaged 4.1/4.0/2.8 ypa, which is hideous. Dolphins are 7-11 in last 18 games as a road underdog. Atlanta is 7-1 in its last eight post-bye games, covering five of last six; they’ve run ball for 147 ypg in last three games. Falcons are 4-11 as home favorites under Quinn. Fish are 8-4 in series, but lost 38-16/19-7 in their only two visits here in last 20 years- their last win in Atlanta was in 1980. AFC East road teams are 7-2 vs spread outside their division; NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites. All four Miami games this year have stayed under total.

    Packers (4-1) @ Vikings (3-2)— Keenum played QB in 2nd half of Monday nite’s win in Chicago; Vikings haven’t allowed a first half TD in last three games (outscored foes 31-8)- they held last two opponents under 300 yards, last three opponents to 17 or less points. Minnesota is 12-3 in its last 15 games as a home underdog, 5-2 under Zimmer. Pack scored 35-35 points in last two games; Rodgers won game LW 35-31 in Dallas with last-minute drive- Green Bay is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as a road favorite, 5-2 in last 7 games on artificial turf. Last four GB games went over total. Green Bay is 11-3-1 in last 15 series games; they won 3 of last 4 visits to Twin Cities, but lost 17-14 in first visit to the Vikings’ new dome LY.

    Lions (3-2) @ Saints (2-2)— Detroit won last three series games, by 1-8-15 points; they beat Saints here the last two years, 35-27/28-13. Lions are 2-0 on road, beating Giants/Vikings, but they lost last two home games; Detroit is just 11-39 on 3rd down last three weeks- they’ve run 65 times for 218 yards (72.7 ypg) in last three games. New Orleans is 6-1-1 vs spread in its last eight post-bye games. Saints are playing only 2nd home game- they allowed total of 13 points winning last two games after an 0-2 start. NO is 5-13-1 in its last 19 games as a home favorite. NFC North teams are 8-6 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as road dogs. NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites.

    Patriots (3-2) @ Jets (3-2)— Teams are in 3-way tie with Buffalo atop AFC East. Patriots are 10-2 in last 12 series games, with both losses in OT- teams split last four meetings played here. Pats won last meeting 41-3 LY. Extra prep time for NE after Thursday night win; they’re 2-0 on foreign soil, winning 36-20 in Superdome, 19-14 in Tampa LW, first game this year Patriots held an opponent under 7.6 ypa. Jets won three in row after an 0-2 start, they’re 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games as a home underdog. Gang Green held opponents to 13 points on their last six red zone drives, but that was vs sub-par NFL QB’s (Bortles-Kizer-Hogan). NE is 8-1 in last nine games as a road favorite- they have 25 plays of 20+ yards, #2 in NFL behind Rams’ 29.

    49ers (0-5) @ Redskins (2-2)— Kyle Shanahan worked for Redskins with his dad from 2010-13; his 49ers lost in OT the last two weeks. Since 1997, favorites that lost the previous two weeks in OT are 4-2-1 vs spread in that 3rd game. Niners may be 0-5, but their last four losses were by 3-2-3-3 points- they’re 2-1 as road dogs. This is also their 3rd week in row on road, a historic soft spot for road teams. 49ers won last four series games, taking last two played here. Redskins’ last series win was in ’05. Redskins are 2-7 in last nine post-bye games; favorites covered 9 of their last 10 post-bye games. Washington is favored for first time this year; since 2013, they’re 5-10 vs spread as a home favorite.

    Bears (2-3) @ Ravens (3-2)— Trubisky was 13-26/159 passing in his NFL debut Monday night, throwing key INT in last 3:00 that cost Bears the game, but he was OK. This is his first road start- he started only 13 college games at North Carolina. Chicago is 12-36 on 3rd their last three games; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 29-7 (+7) in Tampa, 35-14 (+7) in Green Bay- they’re 12-17-1 vs spread in last 30 games as a road underdog. Ravens scored 20+ in their three wins, with a +8 TO ratio- they scored 7-9 in losses, with -5 TO ratio. Baltimore is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite. Bears are 3-2 in last five series games; home side won four of last five meetings. Ravens lost 23-20 in OT in last visit here, in 2013.

    Browns (0-5) @ Texans (2-3)— Cleveland switched to Stanford alum Hogan at QB in 2nd half vs Jets LW- he led them on two TD drives in a 17-14 loss. Browns lost 24-10 (+7.5) at Baltimore, 31-28 (-1) at Indy in their two road games; they’re 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as a road dog. Houston scored 33-57-34 points in last three games behind rookie QB Watson, but lost 2 of the 3; they allowed 29+ points in their three losses, 9-14 in their wins. Under O’Brien, Houston is 12-5-1 as a home favorite. Texans won five of last six series games, last of which was in 2014; Browns lost last three visits here, by 3-8-18 points. JJ Watt/Mercilus both need surgery for their injuries, big blow to the Houston defense. Since ’09, Texans are 5-3 as a double digit favorite.

    Buccaneers (2-2) @ Cardinals (2-3)— Arizona is 2-3 with wins by 3 points each over Colts/49ers; their losses are by 12-11-27 points- they scored two TD’s on 23 drives in their last two games, scored 14.5 ppg in last four games. Dirk Koetter returns to Phoenix (was ASU’s coach from 2001-06); his Bucs got crushed 40-7 in Week 2 here LY, Bucs’ 3rd loss in last four visits to desert- teams split last eight series games. Cardinals are 4-3 as home underdogs under Arians, 16-10 since ’07. Tampa Bay (-2.5) lost 34-17 at Minnesota, in its only road game, first time in four years they were road favorite. Bucs are 5-4 SU on road under Koetter. NFC West teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division. NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 4-5 when favored.

    Rams (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-2)— Two teams having surprising success under new leadership. Jags ran ball for 155+ yards in 4 of their 5 games; their wins are by 22-37-21 points. Jags are +11 in turnovers in those three games, -1 in their two losses, giving up 37-23 points- their defense scored 3 TD’s in their last two games, same as their offense. LA scored 41-35 points in winning its two road games, throwing ball for 10.4/6.8 ypa. Rams lost 13-10 to division rival Seattle LW; they’re -5 in turnovers in two losses, +4 in three wins. Home team won all four series games; Rams lost 23-20 in OT in only visit here, in 2009. NFC West teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division, 1-6 on road. AFC South teams are 6-5 vs spread outside their division.

    Steelers (3-2) @ Chiefs (5-0)—KC is best team in NFL right now, scoring 17 TD’s, trying 12 FG’s on 52 drives; none of their wins have been by less than 7 points. Under Andy Reid, Chiefs are 15-17 vs spread as home favorites, 2-0 this year. Pittsburgh is a road underdog for first time in three years; Steelers lost 2 of last 3 games, throwing five INTs in 30-9 home loss to Jaguars LW. Steelers won five of last six series games; they beat KC 18-16 here in LY’s playoffs, after crushing Chiefs 43-14 in Heinz Field during season. All five Steeler games stayed under the total; over is 3-0-2 in Chief games. Roethlisberger had one of his worst games LW, throwing five INTs with no TD’s- two of his INTs were run back for TD’s. He figures to bounce back here.

    Chargers (1-4) @ Raiders (2-3)— Oakland lost its last three games, scoring 10-10-17 points; their QB has a broken back, his backup lost his last six NFL starts and the defense has zero turnovers in their last two games. Raiders are 5-6 vs spread as home favorites under Del Rio. Chargers got their first win LW; four of their five games were decided by 5 or less points. Bolts are 2-0 as road underdogs this year; since ’08, they’re 30-17-2 as road dogs- four of their five games this year went over total. Oakland won last four series games, last three all by 3 points; Chargers lost 23-20ot/34-31 in last two visits here. NFL-wide, home favorites are 5-8-1 vs spread in division games. Raiders’ team total stayed under in four of their five games.

    Giants (0-5) @ Broncos (3-1)— New York is in freefall, starting 0-5 and now Beckham is done for the year. Maybe getting away from home will help. Giants’ last three losses are by 3-2-5 points- they ran for 152 yards LW, a positive step after averaging 59.3 ypg in first four games. Big Blue is 3-3-1 as road underdogs under McAdoo. Denver is 3-0 at home, winning by 3-25-6 points; since 2014, they’re 9-11-1 as a home favorite. Over is 3-1 in their four games. Four of five Giant games went over total. Denver won/covered six of last seven post-bye games. Giants lost four of five visits to Denver, losing last three by 14-11-20 points- their lone win in Mile High City was in ’89. This is first time since Manning retired that Denver is a double digit favorite.

    Monday's game
    Colts (2-3) @ Titans (2-3)— Status of Mariota (hamstring) makes handicapping this game dicey. Titans scored 14-10 points in losing their last two games, both on road; they split their two home games. Tennessee is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite; over is 10-6-2 in their last 18 home games. Indy is 16-1 in its last 17 games with the Titans, winning last 11 in a row; they won last five visits to Nashville, by 6-3-17-2-8 points. Indy is 0-2 on road this season, losing big both times, 46-9 (+3.5) at Rams, 46-18 (+13) at Seattle- their three home games were all decided by 3 points each. Last three Colt games all went over. Colts are 30-65 on 3rd down in Brissett’s four starts, which is good, but winning on road is doubtful until Luck returns to lineup.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-12-2017 at 12:49 PM.

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 6


    Thursday, October 12

    Philadelphia @ Carolina

    Game 103-104
    October 12, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    137.997
    Carolina
    137.034
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 1
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Carolina
    by 3 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (+3 1/2); Over



    Sunday, October 15

    Cleveland @ Houston

    Game 251-252
    October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    127.473
    Houston
    135.559
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 8
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 10
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+10); Over

    New England @ NY Jets


    Game 253-254
    October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    141.091
    NY Jets
    125.309
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 16
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 9 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-9 1/2); Over

    Miami @ Atlanta


    Game 255-256
    October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    124.045
    Atlanta
    140.892
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 16
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 11
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (-11); Over

    Detroit @ New Orleans


    Game 257-258
    October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    134.393
    New Orleans
    141.296
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 7
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4 1/2
    50
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-4 1/2); Over

    Green Bay @ Minnesota


    Game 259-260
    October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    141.279
    Minnesota
    129.978
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 11 1/2
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 3
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-3); Under

    Chicago @ Baltimore


    Game 261-262
    October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    126.771
    Baltimore
    131.268
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 4 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 7
    39 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (+7); Over

    San Francisco @ Washington


    Game 263-264
    October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    126.525
    Washington
    132.174
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    by 5 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Washington
    by 10
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+10); Under

    LA Rams @ Jacksonville


    Game 265-266
    October 15, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    126.743
    Jacksonville
    141.651
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 15
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 2 1/2
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (-2 1/2); Over

    Tampa Bay @ Arizona


    Game 267-268
    October 15, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    131.553
    Arizona
    126.769
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 5
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 1
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (-1); Under

    Pittsburgh @ Kansas City


    Game 269-270
    October 15, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    137.669
    Kansas City
    139.956
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 2 1/2
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 5
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (+5); Under

    LA Chargers @ Oakland


    Game 271-272
    October 15, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    129.935
    Oakland
    126.937
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 3
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Chargers
    N/A

    NY Giants @ Denver


    Game 273-274
    October 15, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Giants
    128.000
    Denver
    135.984
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 8
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 12 1/2
    40
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+12 1/2); Under



    Monday, October 16

    Indianapolis @ Tennessee

    Game 275-276
    October 16, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    124.154
    Tennessee
    124.926
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1
    60
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    N/A
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-12-2017 at 12:50 PM.

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    NFL

    Thursday, October 12


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Eagles at Panthers
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 45.5)

    Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles were the darlings of the NFL during the first month of the 2016 season. That fast start was following by a lengthy tailspin, which is why the Eagles are not getting too far ahead of themselves as they prepare to visit the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night in a matchup of division leaders.

    “What we don’t know about ourselves is how we handle success. Which, I think, is more dangerous,” cornerback Malcolm Jenkins said after Philadelphia's 34-7 destruction of Arizona on Sunday. “It’s easy to start listening to the fans and the media about how good you are, but at the end of the day, it’s a race to improve every week.” The Eagles are sitting atop the NFC East with a 4-1 record, their lone loss coming at Kansas City -- the league's only unbeaten team. Like Philadelphia, the Panthers are 4-1 and alone in first place in the NFC South after squeezing out a pair of impressive three-point road wins at New England and Detroit. Cam Newton has bounced back from some early-season struggles with some superb play, but it has been overshadowed by his sexist remarks to a female reporter during a media session.

    TV:
    8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Eagles (+1.5) - Panthers (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -3

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Panthers opened as three-point home favorites and that pointspread has been bet up slightly to -3.5. The total hit betting boards at 45 and edged higher to 45.5.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Eagles - DT F. Cox (Probable, Calf), S J. Watkins (Questionable, Hamstring), DT D. Vaeao (Questionable, Wrist), DE C. Long (Questionable, Foot), DT B. Allen (Questionable, Foot), RB W. Smallwood (Doubtful, Knee), T L. Johnson (Out, Head), CB R. Darby (Out, Ankle), CB S. Jones (Out, Achilles), RB D. Sproles (I-R, Knee), RB D. Pumphrey (I-R, Hamstring), K C. Sturgis (Out, Quadricep), CB R. Goforth (I-R, Knee), WR D. Williams (I-R, Achilles).

    Panthers - CB J. Bradberry (Probable, Calf), DE M. Addison (Probable, Knee), DE J. Peppers (Probable, Shoulder), QB C. Newton (Probable, Shoulder), T M. Kalil (Probable, Ankle), RB J. Stewart (Probable, Ankle), WR D. Funchess (Probable, Knee), S D. Cox (Out, Ankle), C R. Kalil (Out, Neck), S K. Coleman (Out, Knee), TE G. Olsen (Out, Foot), DE D. Hall (Out, Knee), WR D. Byrd (Out, Forearm), CB C. Luke (Out, Ankle), CB C. Elder (I-R, Knee), T D. France (I-R, Concussion), CB T. Williams (I-R, Arm), DT D. Iddings (I-R, Shoulder), WR C. Johnson (I-R, Back).

    ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U):
    All but four of last week's 14 games were decided by six points or fewer, but Philadelphia was one of the exceptions as Wentz posted a perfect passer rating in the first quarter with three of his four touchdown passes. Tight end Zach Ertz continues to be Wentz's favorite target with 32 receptions and two touchdowns, but Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor each hauled in long scoring strikes against a vaunted Arizona secondary. Running back LeGarrette Blount is providing balance to the offense, averaging 6.6 yards per carry over the past three games. The Eagles rank 29th against the pass but defensive tackle Fletcher Cox practiced fully Tuesday after missing the last two games.

    ABOUT THE PANTHERS (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U):
    Newton got off to a slow start while working his way back from offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder, but he has been spectacular in the past two games with a combined passer rating of 137.2 while throwing for 671 yards and six TDs. Tight end Greg Olsen was injured in Week 2 but Ed Dickson gave the position a boost with five receptions for 175 yards last week. Rookie running back Christian McCaffrey has 27 catches while wideout Devin Funchess is forming some chemistry Newton with 14 receptions and three scores over the past two games. Carolina's defense is surrendering 274 yards per game, ranking No. 1 in the NFC, while allowing 194.2 yards through the air.

    TRENDS:


    * Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
    * Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
    * Over is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 road games.
    * Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in October.
    * Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road underdog Eagles at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 76 percent of the totals action.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-12-2017 at 12:42 PM.

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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6
    Monty Andrews

    The Jets can't hope to exchange offensive firepower with New England even with the Patriots struggling on the defensive end - but they certainly boast a more formidable secondary.

    New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9.5, 47.5)

    Patriots' putrid pass defense vs. Jets' shutdown secondary

    If you had told the majority of NFL bettors that the Patriots and Jets would have identical records through five games, you would probably get some strange looks. But that's exactly what has happened as the AFC East rivals do battle this Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium. Even more surprisingly, the team's point differentials aren't that far off - thanks in part to New England's strangely weak pass defense, and in part to the Jets effectively limiting opposing pass attacks.

    Nothing has come easily for the Patriots, who have seen each of their last three game decided by five points or fewer. They escaped Tampa with a 19-14 triumph over the Buccaneers, but still surrendered 319 passing yards in doing so and have allowed 1,615 yards through the air on the season, by far the most in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have recorded an average passer rating of 109.2 in five games against the Patriots; only the Cleveland Browns (112.4) have yielded a higher aggregate rating.

    The Jets can't hope to exchange offensive firepower with New England even with the Patriots struggling on the defensive end - but they certainly boast a more formidable secondary. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack league-wide in passing yards against per game (212), but are allowing the eighth-lowest passer rating (81.9). That number drops all the way to 56.2 at home, tied for the lowest passer rating in the league among visiting quarterbacks. If this trend continues, the Jets should keep this one close.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (OFF)

    Chargers' punishing pass pressure vs. Raiders' leaky O-line

    Things have gone sideways in Oakland, with the Raiders - pegged by some as the potential Super Bowl representative from the AFC - having lost three consecutive games and dealing with an injury to their star quarterback. Even if Derek Carr returns this week - and head coach Jack Del Rio believes he will - he'll need to get better protection than the quarterback position has received in recent weeks. That could be a big ask this week, as the Chargers bring their league-best pass pressure to town.

    Armed with two of the best young pass rushers in the game in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, the Chargers have punished opposing quarterbacks all season long. Los Angeles enters the game with the best sack rate in the NFL, taking down the QB on 10.18 percent of opponent dropbacks through five games. The Chargers have been even more prolific on the road, registering a 12.33-percent sack rate in two games away from Los Angeles. They rank third overall in total sacks with 17; Bosa and Ingram have 12 of them.

    The Raiders haven't been able to keep the quarterback safe during their three-game losing skid. Oakland has given up a sack on 9.8 percent of dropbacks over that stretch; only five other teams have been worse at protecting the QB in that span. That dropped the team's sack allowed rate to 7.32 percent on the season, 20th-best in the league. And if the Raiders can't contain one of the top pass rushes in the league this weekend, they might struggle to end their losing ways.

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 46)

    Steelers' second-half woes vs. Chiefs' late scoring barrage

    It's officially panic time in Steel Town, with the Steelers looking for answers after last week's 30-17 beatdown at the hands of the visiting Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hinting at retirement after throwing five interceptions in the stunning loss, and things won't get any easier for him in hostile territory this Sunday. The Chiefs have been the class of the league so far, due in large part to an offense that has been much better than anyone expected it to be - particularly in the second half.

    The Steelers came into the season with high hopes on the offensive end - and having Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on the roster doesn't hurt. But Pittsburgh is averaging fewer than 20 points per game with Roethlisberger looking like a quarterback on the downside of his career. The Steelers enter the weekend averaging a paltry 7.8 second-half points per game - sitting in the bottom quarter of the league in that category. It's a far cry from the 12 second-half points the Steelers averaged a season ago.

    Perhaps Roethlisberger and the Steelers could learn a thing or two from Alex Smith and the surprising Chiefs, who have scored a league-best 164 points through five games. Kansas City was a below-average second-half scoring unit in 2016 but has exceeded expectations so far this season, leading the league with 19.4 second-half points per game. With Pittsburgh reeling and the Chiefs rolling, Big Ben will need to be a lot better than he was last week if the Steelers have any hope of keeping things close.

    New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39.5)

    Giants' third-down woes vs. Broncos' drive-killing prowess

    You can find several reasons to fade the Giants this weekend at Sports Authority Field at Mile High - and it all starts with the state of the New York receiving corps. The Giants lost both Odell Beckham and Dwayne Harris for the season in last week's loss to the Chargers, while Brandon Marshall will miss multiple games and Sterling Shepard is also banged-up. The Giants were already having trouble converting on third down, and this won't make it any easier - especially against that vaunted Broncos defense.

    New York's offense has struggled for most of the season, particularly at extending drives. The Giants have converted just 36.4 percent of third-down opportunities to date, tied with Cincinnati for 24th in the NFL. It's an extension of a trend that plagued New York last season, when it placed 31st out of 32 teams in third-down conversion rate. And what's even more baffling: quarterback Eli Manning has been decent on third down this season, completing 70 percent of passes with two TDs and zero interceptions.

    He's going to need to be that accurate - or more so - this weekend as he faces a Broncos defense that has been positively brutal on opposing offenses facing third down. Denver has allowed foes to complete just 25.9 percent of third-down opportunities; only two other teams (Minnesota, Miami) have an opponent success rate below 30 percent. With most of his pass catchers on the sidelines and a fearsome Denver defense awaiting him, Manning will be in tough to improve his team's third-down numbers.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-12-2017 at 12:43 PM.

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    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    NFL trends for this weekend:

    — Cleveland is 3-12 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

    — Chiefs covered 10 of their last 11 games.

    — Denver is 6-1 vs spread in game after its last seven byes.

    — Falcons are 10-20 vs spread in last 30 games as a favorite.

    — Arizona is 3-13 vs spread in its last 16 games.

    — Houston is 8-1 in last nine games as a non-divisional home favorite.

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    Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

    More NFL trends for Week 6 games this weekend:

    — Minnesota is 14-5 vs spread in its last 19 home games.

    — Saints are 6-1-1 vs spread in their last eight post-bye games.

    — Redskins are 2-7 vs spread in their last nine post-bye games.

    — Patriots are 2-7 in last nine games as a divisional road favorite.

    — Buccaneers are 6-2 in last eight games as a road un

    — Chargers are 13-3-4 vs spread as a divisional road underdog.

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    Essential Week 6 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

    Despite havng to face a 5-0 SU/ATS Chiefs team, Big Ben can be confident heading into Arrowhead Stadium thanks to a 118.7 passer rating in seven career games against KC.

    Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are big away faves against at New York this weekend but, in this week's essential betting tidbits, we explain why might New England Patriots supporters might want to bet the farm on their team to cover the spread against the pesky Jets on Sunday.

    Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 39.5)

    Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky is trying to become only the second rookie quarterback to win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens according to ESPN Stats & Information. Teams starting a rookie under center and playing at Baltimore are 1-14 straight up and – just in case you needed to know oddsmakers are good at their job – 7-7-1 against the spread since the franchise moved from Cleveland.

    Sportsbooks have the Ravens around -280 on the moneyline if you just want to bet on them to win outright.

    LINE HISTORY: A few shops opened with the Ravens as touchdown favorites although now it’s pretty much 6.5 across the board. The total opened as high as 41.5 and was bet down to 39.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records.
    *The Under is 6-2 in the Ravens’ last eight home games.

    Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3, 46.5)

    Did the revolving door at the running back position finally find a potential star? The same jukebox offense that’s churned through Eddie Lacey, James Starks and most recently Ty Montgomery spat out Aaron Jones as the start in the backfield last weekend.

    Jones proved elusive and picked up 125 carries and a TD run on just 19 carries against the Dallas Cowboys. Is Jones a flash in the pan or the real deal? Montgomery is still nursing a couple broken ribs, so bettors should get a clearer picture of Jones’ effect on Green Bay’s offense against the Vikings.

    LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 3-point road chalk but there were some locations throwing the hook half point. There are 3s and 3.5s on the board now with plus juice varying on both numbers.

    TRENDS:

    *The Packers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
    *The Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games.
    *The Over is 15-3 in the Packers last 18 games overall.

    Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-11.5, 46)

    Miami quarterback Jay Cutler isn’t passing the eye test or stat test in his performance four games into the Dolphins season. He’s in charge of an offense that last in total offense and scoring offense.

    Football Outsiders’ DYAR (defense adjusted yards above replacement) places Cutler as the league’s second worst quarterback behind only the recently benched DeShone Kizer. Cutler ranks 31st in FO’s DVOA stat (defense adjusted value over average) with a -33.1 rating.

    LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 10-point favorites but the books now have them giving 12 points to the visiting Dolphins. The total has been bet down from 47 to 46.

    TRENDS:

    *The Under is 5-0 in the Dolphins’ last five games overall.
    *The Over is 12-1 in the Falcons’ last 13 home games.

    Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-5, 50)

    Are the Saints as good as their 2-2 record indicates or are they just benefited from unprecedented luck when it comes to turnovers? New Orleans has four takeaways through its first four games but the really crazy thing is the club has yet to turn the ball over. If they don’t cough the ball up against the Lions, the Saints will become the first team in NFL history to play five games without turning the ball over once.

    LINE HISTORY: This spread been all over the place - with it as low as 3.5 in Vegas and as high as 6 offshore. Most shops are dealing Saints -5 with a 50-point over/under line.

    TRENDS:

    *The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off their bye week.
    *The Over is 6-1 in the Saints last seven games overall.

    Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-9.5, 47)

    Cleveland Browns 2.0 has been around since 1999. In that time the team has started 27 different dudes under center. On Sunday, Kevin Hogan becomes No. 28. The Browns are 2-3 ATS and 0-5 SU in the last five games they’ve started a different quarterback than the game prior.

    Remember, the Browns could have drafted Texans rookie QB Deshaun Watson in last year’s trade. Hindsight is 20/20, I guess.

    LINE HISTORY: The line opened as low as 9.5 and has gone as high as 10.5 but seems to be settling on Texans -10. The total has been bet up from 44.5 to 47.

    TRENDS:

    *Cleveland is 6-24-1 ATS in its last 31 games overall.
    *The Over is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games.

    San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-11, 46.5)

    The playoffs were never a realistic expectation or goal for the 49ers this season and at 0-5 it appears the club is switching out some of the proven veterans and handing those snaps to younger players. Running back Carlos Hyde appears to be in danger of losing his claim to the No. 1 spot on the running back depth chart to undrafted rookie Matt Breida out of Georgia Southern, and linebacker NaVorro Bowman being spelled often by Brock Coyle.

    Do the younger players give the Niners a better chance at winning games now – or is this just a way of evaluating their talent level?

    LINE HISTORY: Washington hoped as 9.5-point home chalk but the line has been bet up to 11. The total is holding steady at 46.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Under is 4-0 in Washington’s last four home games.
    *San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.

    New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9.5, 47.5)

    The Patriots have owned the AFC East in winning the division crown eight straight years and in 13 of the last 14 seasons. That said, some of the teams in the division have a knack for covering the spread against the big bully in their division.

    The Jets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s boys.

    LINE HISTORY: The line has stayed steady at 9.5 but there are a few shops dealing Pats -10. The total is holding at 47.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Over is 8-1 in the Pats last nine games overall.
    *New England is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5, 45)

    The Cardinals are taking a third grab from the name-running-backs past-their-prime bin. Emmitt Smith and Edgerrin James were both brought in to Arizona last decade on the downslope of their careers. Adrian Peterson is the latest after ‘Zona acquired the former All-Pro RB in a trade with the New Orleans Saints.

    Kent Somers of the Azcentral Sports says this time is different because there are no ulterior motives in the move like there were when the team signed Smith and James, and there was a need to increase fan interest.

    Either way, Bruce Arians offense likes a running back that can be a positive in the passing attack – both as a receiving target and as an extra blocker. Those are two skills Peterson hasn’t done well during his 11-year career.

    LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened as 2-point home dogs but most books now list them as 1.5-point pups. The total opened at 44 and has been bet up to 45.

    TRENDS:

    *The Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
    *The Cards are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
    *The Under is 13-3 in the Cards’ last 16 home games.

    Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5)

    The Rams have a young quarterback in Jared Goff who appears to have taken a giant leap in his development in his sophomore season. The Jaguars, though, have a secondary that’s making minced meat out of NFL quarterbacks.

    Opposing quarterbacks share a 56.9 passing rating when playing Jacksonville this season. The only three teams (’03 Pats, ’02 Bucs, ’96 Packers) who have allowed a passer rating in that neighborhood all went on to win the Super Bowl according to NFL Research.

    LINE HISTORY: The line has held tight at Jags -2.5 all week with a little extra juice on the Jags to keep the spread from going up to the key number (3). The total opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 42.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Rams are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
    *The Jags are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 47)

    There aren’t many NFL players who would be happy to see the Kansas City Chiefs as their next opponent on the schedule, but that’s the case for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Fresh off a five-interception game last week, Big Ben can be confident heading into Arrowhead Stadium thanks to a 118.7 passer rating in seven career games against the Chiefs.

    LINE HISTORY: The spread opened as small as 3.5 and was bet as high as 5 but seems to be settling at 4.5. Many books are at 46 for the total, however, there are a few dealing 47.

    TRENDS:

    *The Chiefs are the league’s lone undefeated ATS team this season at 5-0.
    *The Steelers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an outright loss.

    New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39)

    It might be a good idea to place a bet on Ben McAdoo if you can find odds on first NFL coach to be fired. The Giants 0-5 suspended defensive back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for what appears to be insubordination and the players aren’t lining up to vouch for their head coach.

    The G-Men are missing three of their top receivers and are playing against one of the best defenses in the league. NBC executives must be busy negotiating an early start to the flex schedule for Sunday Night Football to keep teams like the Giants out of primetime.

    LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 10-point home faves and were bet up to as high as 13-point chalk. The line has come back down to 12 at most shops. The total opened at 40.5 and has come down to 39 or 39.5.

    TRENDS:

    *The Broncos are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a bye week.
    *The Under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last six games vs. teams with winning records.

  14. #14
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    NFL

    Sunday, October 15


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Giants at Broncos
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39.5)

    The season is turning into a massive sinkhole for the New York Giants, dragging down their playoff chances while swallowing up their best players due to injury. One of three winless teams in the league, the Giants will travel to one of the NFL's most difficult venues when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday night.

    New York has lost its last three games by a combined 10 points but Sunday's 22-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers was by far the most damaging, with starting wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall suffering season-ending ankle injuries. “We have to move on,” said quarterback Eli Manning. “Obviously, whenever you lose players, you have to make adjustments and other guys have to step up. Nothing has changed in that fact." Denver, on the other hand, is rested and refreshed following its bye but cannot afford a letdown as it tries to keep pace with undefeated Kansas City in the AFC West. "We're in a good spot right now," Broncos coach Vance Joseph said after a Wednesday practice that he termed the team's "best" of the year. "We have to continue to do more and push our guys to continue to focus and push forward and get better every day."

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Giants (+5) - Broncos (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Broncos -9.5

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Broncos opened as 10-point home chalk and money coming in on the home team has pushed that number up to 11.5. The total hit the betting board at 40.5 and has been bet down two points to 38.5. View the complete line history here.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    ’The Broncos have had a favorable schedule this season as they coming off a bye week and have now played four of their first five games at home in the thin air and altitude. The Giants' offense has struggled this season and will once again be without their star wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. However, all of these elements have been factored into the line and that is the reason the Broncos are a big double-digit favorite.’ - Steve Merril

    WHAT BOOKS SAY:
    ‘All of the sharp action came very early, and very heavy. We moved 2.5 points toward Denver in less than 24 hours. It’s a beleaguered Giants team and the public is fully aware of that fact so they are fading New York as well. Not surprisingly, the under has seen sharp support and we’re not in the 30s with the total, which will probably continue to plummet.’ Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Giants - RB Orleans Darkwa (Probable, Calf), QB Eli Manning (Probable, Neck), DE Olivier Vernon (Questionable, Ankle), C Weston Richburg (Questionable, Concussion), DE Cap Capi (Questionable, Undisclosed), LB Jonathan Casillas (Questionable, Stinger), DT Jay Bromley (Questionable, Undisclosed), S Landon Collins (Questionable, Ankle), RB Paul Perkins (Doubtful, Ribs), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), WR Sterling Shepard (Late October, Ankle), WR Brandon Marshall (I-R, Ankle), WR Odell Beckham Jr. (I-R, Ankle), WR Dwayne Harris (I-R, Foot), LB J.T. Thomas (Questionable Week 12, Groin).

    Broncos - WR Cody Latimer (Questionable, Knee), QB Paxton Lynch (Out Indefinitely, Shoulder), TE Jake Butt (Questionable Week 9, Knee), QB Chad Kelly (Questionable Week 9, Wrist), LB Shane Ray (Questionable, Week 9, Wrist).

    ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U):
    New York also lost a third wide receiver, Dwayne Harris, to a season-ending injury and Sterling Shepard was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving the team scrambling to fill the holes by re-signing Tavarres King and Darius Powe. Running back Paul Perkins also was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman to lead a backfield that ranks 30th in the league (77.8 yards). Manning, who could be staring at Roger Lewis Jr. as his No. 1 wideout, has tossed eight scoring passes and five interceptions while completing a career-best 67.8 percent of his defense. Discord has hit the team with the indefinite suspension of cornerback Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie.

    ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U):
    Denver certainly has its vulnerablities, losing at Buffalo in Week 3 and needing a last-second interception to beat Oakland prior to the bye, but it shredded another NFC East foe in a 42-17 shellacking of Dallas in Week 2. There is nothing wrong with the Broncos' defense, which is yielding a league-low 260.8 yards per game and ranks No. 1 against the run (50.8). Former seventh-round draft pick Trevor Siemian has thrown for seven touchdowns versus four interceptions while averaging 222 yards per game, but he has a dangerous wide receiver tandem in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. C.J. Anderson has at least 20 rushing attempts in three of four games and averages 4.5 yards per tote.

    TRENDS:


    * Giants are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

    * Broncos are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

    * Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 games following a ATS loss.

    * Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games in October.

    * Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the home Broncos at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is picking up 57 percent of the totals action.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  15. #15
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    NFL teaser lovers rejoice. Double-digit faves are 45-8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons when teased 10 points. There's 5 on the Week 6 board.
    Common sense is not so common.
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