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Thread: The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

  1. #781
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    Dec 2002
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    73,871
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    NBA
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, January 18


    Cavaliers lost four in row, 8 of last 10 games; they’re 5-14 vs spread as home favorites. Under is 6-4 in their last ten home games. Orlando lost 16 of last 18 games; they’re 3-8 in last 11 tries as road underdogs. Under is 11-5 in their last 16 games. Cleveland won nine of last 10 games with Orlando but Magic covered four of last six— Magic is 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Three of last four series games went over.

    Celtics won nine of last 10 games with Philly, covering last three; Sixers covered three of last four visits to Beantown. Six of last eight series games went over the total. 76ers won five of their last six games; they’re 7-8 as road underdogs. Four of their last five games went over total. Boston won seven of its last eight games; they’re 10-7-2 as home favorites. Three of their last four home games stayed under.

    Rockets won nine of last ten games with Minnesota, but Wolves covered seven of last eight; Minnesota is 5-1 vs spread in last six visits here. Nine of last ten series games went over total. Minnesota won five of its last six games; they’re 5-6 as road underdogs. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Houston split its last six games; they’re 3-6 in last nine tries as home favorites. Last seven Houston home games went over.

    Portland won eight of last ten games with Indiana; four of last five series games went over total. Pacers are 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Oregon. Pacers won five of their last six games; they’re 8-7 as road underdogs. Five of their last six games stayed under. Portland won its last four home games; they’re 4-11-1 vs spread as home favorites. Blazers’ last six games all went over the total.




    NBA

    Thursday, January 18


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHILADELPHIA @ BOSTON
    Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
    Boston is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing Philadelphia

    ORLANDO @ CLEVELAND
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games on the road
    Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Cleveland is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing Orlando
    Cleveland is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

    MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON
    Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
    Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

    INDIANA @ PORTLAND
    Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games
    Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana


    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    NBA
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, January 18


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ORLANDO (13 - 31) at CLEVELAND (26 - 17) - 1/18/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ORLANDO is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games this season.
    ORLANDO is 39-56 ATS (-22.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 131-169 ATS (-54.9 Units) in January games since 1996.
    ORLANDO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
    ORLANDO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    ORLANDO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
    ORLANDO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) in all games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
    CLEVELAND is 6-26 ATS (-22.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
    CLEVELAND is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
    CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 5-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    CLEVELAND is 8-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHILADELPHIA (20 - 20) at BOSTON (34 - 11) - 1/18/2018, 7:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
    BOSTON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
    PHILADELPHIA is 71-50 ATS (+16.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BOSTON is 6-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    BOSTON is 10-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MINNESOTA (29 - 17) at HOUSTON (30 - 12) - 1/18/2018, 9:35 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MINNESOTA is 6-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    HOUSTON is 6-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    INDIANA (24 - 20) at PORTLAND (23 - 21) - 1/18/2018, 10:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    INDIANA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PORTLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    PORTLAND is 4-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NBA
    Dunkel

    Thursday, January 18



    Orlando @ Cleveland

    Game 501-502
    January 18, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Orlando
    112.412
    Cleveland
    120.554
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cleveland
    by 8
    231
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cleveland
    by 11
    222
    Dunkel Pick:
    Orlando
    (+11); Over

    Philadelphia @ Boston


    Game 503-504
    January 18, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    120.508
    Boston
    123.412
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Boston
    by 3
    216
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Boston
    by 4 1/2
    211
    Dunkel Pick:
    Philadelphia
    (+4 1/2); Over

    Minnesota @ Houston


    Game 505-506
    January 18, 2018 @ 9:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    119.223
    Houston
    128.412
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 9
    218
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    by 4 1/2
    222 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-4 1/2); Under

    Indiana @ Portland


    Game 507-508
    January 18, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indiana
    114.341
    Portland
    121.856
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Portland
    by 7 1/2
    207
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Portland
    by 3 1/2
    213 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Portland
    (-3 1/2); Under
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  2. #782
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    Runnin' of the Bulls
    January 18, 2018


    I’m trying not to focus exclusively on the Central Division, but they keep sucking me in!

    This time it’s a big to-do about the Chicago Bulls.

    Yes, actually. I know that there are a billion hot topics in the NBA every week, but when there’s a chance to win money at BetOnline.ag, I have to bring it to your attention.

    Stay with me now. This is tough stuff to get your head around.

    The Chicago Bulls are six wins away from smashing the totally-not-insulting regular season win total that was handed to them in the preseason. At just +/- 22.5 wins, the Bulls were supposed to be the worst team in the league by a country mile. They’re still not very good, but something very strange is happening in the house that Michael Jordan built.

    Believe it or not, but the Chicago Bulls have also become a spread busting darling with a mark of 27-17-1 ATS. That’s the second best betting record in the entire league behind Boston. Anyone who was brazen enough to hop on this bandwagon was either clinically insane or insanely smart.

    So how is this all happening? Well first off, it’s not because of bad lines. Over the past ten games, Chicago has faced an average spread of +3.85 and gone a respectable 6-4 ATS. That includes games where they were just +4.5 favorites against Toronto, -1.5 points against Miami and +8.5 against the Golden State Warriors. What those erratic odds tell you is that the Bulls have the oddsmakers scrambling to find answers.

    Usually, teams like the Chicago Bulls become afterthoughts. They’re so bad against the spread that bettors don’t care, and they’re so awful on the court that it’s not even fun to enjoy how bad they are on League Pass. Somehow, Chicago has strung together a really cool run and none of it makes sense.

    Everything seemed to be doom and gloom for the league’s worst roster when they were absolutely fleeced in the Jimmy Butler trade that brought back the likes of Kris Dunn, Zach Lavine and Lauri Markkanen. Then Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis came to blows in the preseason, causing the former to miss multiple weeks due to a broken face. These guys couldn’t even get along let alone figure out how to play ball together.

    Starting off 3-20 SU overall pretty much told everyone what they already knew: Chicago sucked. Even a peek at their advanced stats doesn’t reveal a team that we should even be talking about, let alone writing a thousand words on. The Bulls are ranked just 28th in offensive rating and 26th defensively. By the way, there’s still just 30 teams in the league.

    So how is any of this possible? Well, first of all the package that the Bulls sent to Minnesota for Butler has actually panned out. Markkanen, the 7th overall pick from the 2017 NBA Draft, was seen as a long time project despite being an impressive athletic talent. Instead, the 20 year old Lithuanian has averaged 15.5 points and 7.6 rebounds per game and been a pretty decent revelation for a young Bulls team that really has needed his spark.

    The real engine that drives the train is Kris Dunn, the former Providence floor general who has sky rocketed leaps and bounds this year in terms of development. Dunn has averaged 13.6 points, 6.4 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game on a team that is generally devoid of real scoring potential. Those are impressive numbers, and Dunn is an even more impressive player. He’s not “there” yet, but he’s well on his way. For the record, I wouldn’t have traded Butler for him but that’s just me.

    Speaking of trades, one of the reasons you should probably be betting the Bulls is that the team’s leading scorer is Nikola Mirotic, who’s chipping in a very selfish (but team leading) 17.3 points is asking for a trade, and doing everything he can to bolster his value to other teams. Mirotic and the full-of-hustle point guard Jerain Grant are being shopped around the league. Knowing the Bulls, they’re going to screw this up, but it’s worth tracking in regards to NBA betting.

    Easily the biggest outlier in the glorious betting track record of the Bulls is something I’ve already pointed out – the oddsmakers can’t really nail them down. They’re a ridiculous 14-8-1 ATS at home and 13-9 ATS when travelling. Those are great spread records, especially for a team this bad.

    Chicago is in that lump of top teams racking up wins against the spread that nobody really saw coming. Boston is on top with 27-16-2 ATS, but that’s mostly because nobody anticipated that they’d be this good. Hell, they might win the championship this year. Brooklyn is on pace with a 27-18 ATS run of their own after a recent explosion that seems just as inexplicable, while the Detroit Pistons (24-17-2 ATS) and L.A. Clippers (25-18-1 ATS) are also exceeding expectation.

    This is also totally normal behavior in NBA betting. The Philadelphia Sixers won 28 games last season and went 49-33 ATS. They were followed by Miami at 41-41 SU and 48-33-1 ATS and Denver, who posted a 40-42 SU record while going 46-36 ATS in 2016-17.

    The top teams in the actual standings deserve your eyeballs, but the dredges of the league are usually the best place to find value because nobody else is bothering to look there. That’s why teams like the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets are bet-on entities, even though I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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