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  1. #1
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    Default Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/8

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, October 8

    Good Luck on day #280 of 2017!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Six most popular picks for Week 4 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) Kansas City Chiefs even, 615

    5) Buffalo Bills +3, 650

    4) Los Angeles Rams -1, 725

    3) Houston Texans even, 778

    2) Cincinnati Bengals -3, 847

    1) Detroit Lions -2.5, 1,053

    Season record of top 6 picks: 11-13


    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

    13) Iowa State (+31) 38, Oklahoma 31— I hope Iowa State’s Joel Lanning gets a vote for the Heisman Trophy; this kid used to be the Cyclones’ QB, but when Iowa State decided to start Jacob Park at QB this year, Lanning willingly switched to middle linebacker, because thats was where he was needed.

    Park left the team this week to deal with medical issues; senior Kyle Kempt started at QB, but in running situations, Lanning came in and ran the read-option.

    Imagine a kid in the Big X playing both ways? He recovered an Oklahoma fumble near the goal line, sacked Baker Mayfield with 9:04 when the Cyclones led 31-24— he ran the ball 9 times for 35 yards, was 2-3 passing for 25 times. Tough kid.

    12) Miami 24, Florida State 20— Seminoles’ freshman QB James Blackman is listed at 6-5, 165 pounds; thats really thin, but it illustrates why most freshmen football players redshirt, so they can hit the weight room and training table so they get bigger/stronger before they actually start playing. He needs to add a lot of muscle to his frame. Not many 165-pound quarterbacks in the NFL. Or in major college football.

    This game had a great second half, after a sleepy first half; Miami scored winning TD with 0:06 left after Florida State had taken the lead with 1:24 to play. Hurricanes ended a 7-game losing streak against FSU. The Seminoles are 1-3, and that doesn’t happen much.

    11) Michigan 14, Michigan State 10— Wolverines turned ball over five times (-5) and lost by only four points. Spartans gained only 252 yards, were 2-14 on 3rd down but pulled out a road win.

    10) Arizona 45, Colorado 42– Arizona’s backup QB Khalil Tate rushed for 327 yards and four touchdowns, setting the single-game record for most rushing yards by a quarterback. Arizona’s starting QB got hurt on the first series of the game, and Tate took over from that point.

    9) Navy 48, Air Force 45— Middies blew a 31-10 third quarter lead, then scored winning TD on a 16-yard pass with 0:15 left. Navy is 5-0; their next two games are Memphis/Central Florida.

    8) Bowling Green 37, Miami OH 29— Talk about hideous losses; Miami had the ball on the BG 1-yard line, down 30-29 wth 1:40 left- they botch the shotgun snap, Falcons pick it up and run 93 yards for a TD, instead of taking a knee and ending the game (Miami had only one timeout left at the time). But BG’s defense held, so it wound up not mattering.

    Miami had 37 first downs, gained 612 yards, but lost; stuff like that doesn’t happen very much. Only four of their 37 first downs came on third down plays, so they moved the ball at will, but turnovers undo a lot of things.

    7) Virginia 28, Duke 21— Cavaliers are quietly 4-1, with a win at Boise State in their only road game- they visit 1-5 North Carolina next week.

    6) South Carolina 48, Arkansas 22— Arkansas is now 10-24 in SEC games under Bielema; no bueno. Gamecocks led 20-10 until they scored two defensive TD’s 4:10 apart to break game open midway thru 3rd quarter. Hard to win when you’re -4 in turnovers, which Arkansas was.

    5) Upsets of the Day:
    Iowa State (+31) 38, Oklahoma 31
    Bowling Green (+14) 37, Miami OH 29
    Southern Miss (+13.5) 31, Tex-San Antonio 29
    Central Michigan (+12) 26, Ohio U 23
    UAB (+11.5) 23, La Tech 22- UAB blocked tying PAT with 3:32 left.
    Arizona (+7) 45, Colorado 42

    4) Georgia 45, Vanderbilt 14— Dawgs ran ball for 423 yards here; they have two very good QB’s, one a sophomore, one a freshman. But the best QB in next year’s HS class just committed to go to Georgia, too. Why? You can only play one at a time……..

    Looking down the road, don’t two of those three kids wind up transferring away from Georgia?

    3) Western Michigan 71, Buffalo 68 (7 OT)— Game went seven OT’s, after WMU blew 10-point 4th quarter lead. Both teams had 30+ first downs, ran 90+ plays in this marathon.

    2) Nationals 6, Cubs 3— Chicago’s bullpen imploded during a 5-run 8th inning that evens series at 1-1, heading back to Windy City. Ryan Zimmerman hit the go-ahead homer.

    1) Bad Beat of the Week: Texas (-4) 40, Kansas State 34 OT— K-State missed a 53-yard FG off the upright in OT, then Texas ran the ball in for the winning TD on 3rd-and goal from the 2, with the runner dragging several tacklers over the goal line with him. If you had +4, it was a pretty tough beat.

  3. #3
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    Sunday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview and Odds

    The National League Division series takes a break today and the titans of the American League East both find themselves returning home trying to avoid being swept.

    Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (+120, 9.5)

    Astros lead series 2-0

    The Boston Red Sox have not won a postseason contest since the clinching game of the 2013 World Series and are in danger of being swept out of the American League Division Series for the second straight October. The Red Sox will try to begin a climb out of a 2-0 hole in the best-of-five series when they host the Houston Astros in Game 3 on Sunday.

    Boston finished second in the AL with a 3.70 ERA this regular season but surrendered eight runs in each of the first two ALDS games in Houston as starters Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz combined to allowed 11 runs in seven innings and serve up five home runs. "These guys are all coming out swinging and swinging at a lot of stuff, being very aggressive, and every time we've made a mistake, they've made us pay for it," Pomeranz told reporters. The Astros, who will send Brad Peacock to the mound Sunday against the Red Sox's Doug Fister, led the majors with 896 runs scored in the regular season and every spot in the lineup provided at least one hit over the course of the first two games. "We have a number of guys that have contributed," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "So obviously you're seeing what's possible when we link things together and the hitters start to feed off of one another. We have a lot of guys that are putting up really good at-bats."

    TV:
    2:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

    PITCHING MATCHUP:
    Astros RH Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Doug Fister (5-9, 4.88)

    Peacock gets the Game 3 start largely because of his consistency after he held his last seven opponents to two or fewer earned runs. The 29-year-old, who began the season in the bullpen, did not yield more than five hits in any of his five starts in September and earned the win in each of the last three. Peacock started at Fenway Park on Sep. 28 and held Boston to two runs on four hits and a walk in five frames.

    Fister was chosen over Eduardo Rodriguez and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello despite going 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA over his last four starts. The California native, who was signed by the Red Sox as a free agent in June, enjoyed a four-start stretch from Aug. 22 through Sep. 6 in which he allowed a total of five runs in 30 innings. Fister suffered a home loss to the Astros on Sep. 29 and is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA in nine career postseason games (eight starts).

    TRENDS:

    * Astros are 14-3 in their last 17 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

    * Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.

    * Over is 8-2 in Astros last 10 overall.

    * Over is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 games following a loss.

    * Astros are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the Houston Astros at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is picking up 60 percent of the totals action.



    Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees (+106, 8.5)

    Indians lead series 2-0

    The Cleveland Indians won 33 of their final 37 games in the regular season and are 2-0 in the playoffs following a 13-inning Game 2 triumph in which they recorded the largest comeback in postseason franchise history. The Indians will go for a sweep in the best-of-five American League Division Series when they visit the New York Yankees for Game 3 on Sunday.

    Cleveland rallied from an 8-3 deficit on the strength of a grand slam by Francisco Lindor and a solo shot from Jay Bruce before Yan Gomes drove in the walk-off run in the 13th. "That was what you call October baseball right there," Gomes told reporters. "We've had tremendous comebacks. That's probably one of the top ones we've had all year. Going up 2-0 against the Yankees into New York, it's a good feeling right now." Yankees manager Joe Girardi found himself answering questions about his decision not to challenge a hit-by-pitch call that preceded Lindor's blast and his decision to pull starter CC Sabathia in the sixth inning after 77 pitches. "There was nothing that told us that he was not hit on the pitch," Girardi, who will start Masahiro Tanaka on Sunday against Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco, told reporters. "By the time we got the super slow-mo, we are beyond a minute. It was way too late. They tell us we have the 30 seconds. They will take longer in replay."

    TV:
    7:38 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

    PITCHING MATCHUP:
    Indians RH Carlos Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74)

    Carrasco has not lost since Aug. 22 and finished out the regular season by allowing one or zero runs in six of his final seven turns. The Venezuela native saved his best for last while striking out 14 over 8 1/3 scoreless innings against the Minnesota Twins. Carrasco, who is making his postseason debut after sitting out last October with a broken hand, endured one of his few rough outings during the regular season against New York on Aug. 6, when he was reached for five runs in 5 2/3 innings and suffered a loss.

    Tanaka saved his best for last as well and earned a spot in the postseason rotation by striking out 15 without a walk and yielding three hits in seven scoreless innings against Toronto on Sep. 29. The Japan native allowed seven earned runs in two of his three previous starts but finished the regular season with a career-high 194 strikeouts. Tanaka lost his only previous postseason start in the 2015 wild-card game against Houston and is 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in four career starts against Cleveland.

    TRENDS:


    * Indians are 11-0 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.

    * Indians are 44-8 in their last 52 overall.

    * Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 playoff games.

    * Over is 10-0 in Carrascos last 10 starts with 9 or more days of rest.

    * Indians are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is leaning toward the Indians with 51 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing 66 percent of the totals wagers.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-08-2017 at 11:00 AM.

  4. #4
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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Sunday, October 8


    Houston @ Boston

    Game 951-952
    October 8, 2017 @ 2:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    (Peacock) 18.827
    Boston
    (Fister) 15.992
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 3
    11
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    -140
    9 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-140); Over

    Cleveland @ NY Yankees


    Game 953-954
    October 8, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    (Carrasco) 18.077
    NY Yankees
    (Tanaka) 17.104
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cleveland
    by 1
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cleveland
    -115
    8
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (-115); Over





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, October 8


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (103 - 61) at BOSTON (93 - 71) - 2:35 PM
    BRAD PEACOCK (R) vs. DOUG FISTER (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 103-61 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    HOUSTON is 25-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
    HOUSTON is 53-28 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    HOUSTON is 80-37 (+25.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    HOUSTON is 33-18 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
    HOUSTON is 18-7 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
    HOUSTON is 20-8 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    BOSTON is 689-618 (-81.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
    BOSTON is 372-294 (-47.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
    BOSTON is 0-8 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
    BOSTON is 57-58 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 226-230 (-66.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
    FISTER is 9-16 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 6-3 (+2.4 Units) against BOSTON this season
    4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

    BRAD PEACOCK vs. BOSTON since 1997
    PEACOCK is 1-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 9.01 and a WHIP of 2.156.
    His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-4. (-4.7 units)

    DOUG FISTER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
    FISTER is 1-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.146.
    His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.2 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (104 - 60) at NY YANKEES (92 - 73) - 7:35 PM
    CARLOS CARRASCO (R) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY YANKEES are 65-34 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
    NY YANKEES are 93-79 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    TANAKA is 23-7 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    CLEVELAND is 208-132 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 96-47 (+29.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 53-28 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    CLEVELAND is 49-25 (+19.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 15-3 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-5 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 71-34 (+15.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    CLEVELAND is 62-23 (+31.7 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 23-10 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    CLEVELAND is 26-10 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    CARRASCO is 23-7 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
    NY YANKEES are 23-31 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
    NY YANKEES are 14-21 (-14.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 7-2 (+5.2 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
    4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

    CARLOS CARRASCO vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
    CARRASCO is 3-5 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.263.
    His team's record is 4-5 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-6. (-4.1 units)

    MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
    TANAKA is 1-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.585.
    His team's record is 2-2 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, October 8


    Houston @ Boston
    Astros are 6-3 vs Boston this season; they won 8-2/8-2 in first two series games.

    Peacock is 3-0, 2.65 in his last three starts over is 4-1 in his last five road starts. Astros are 14-3 in his road starts. He allowed two runs in five IP in Fenway last Thursday, a 12-2 win.

    Former Astro Fister (32 starts for Houston LY) is 0-2, 9.18 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven starts. Boston is 1-4 in his last five home starts. He allowed three runs in 5.1 IP in a 3-2 loss to the Astros last Friday.

    Red Sox are in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years; they got swept 3-0 by Cleveland in this round last year. Houston is in playoffs for second time in three years; they’ve never won the World Series, losing 4-0 to the White Sox in 2005.

    Cleveland @ New York
    New York is 2-7 vs Cleveland this season; road teams won five of the nine games. Losing team scored 1 or 2 runs in seven of the nine games. New York blew an 8-3 lead in Game 2 loss.

    Carrasco is 5-0, 1.51 in his last five starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Cleveland is 10-1 in his last 11 starts, 13-4 in his road starts. He allowed five runs in 6.2 IP vs New York August 6, an 8-1 NY win.

    Tanaka is 4-0, 1.29 in his last four home starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts. New York is 10-5 in his home starts. He didn’t pitch against the Indians this season.

    New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012- they beat Twins 7-4 in Wild Card game Tuesday, with bullpen getting 26 of the 27 outs. Indians lost Game 7 of the World Series last year; they haven’t won a World Series since 1948. They’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years.

    AL Wild Card
    NYY 8-4 Minn -$255, O7.5

    NL Wild Card
    Ariz 11-8 Colo -$148, O8.5

    Divisional series
    Hous 8-2 Bos, -$120, O7
    Hous 8-2 Bos, -$185, O8.5

    Clev 4-0 NYY -$130, U8.5
    Clev 9-8 NYY (13), -$210, O7

    Cubs 3-0 Wash, +$135, U7.5
    Wash 6-3 Chi, -$117, O8.5

    LA 9-4 Ariz, -$270, O7.5
    LA 8-5 Ariz, -$142, O8




    MLB

    Sunday, October 8


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    2:38 PM
    HOUSTON vs. BOSTON
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Houston is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Boston
    Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 15 games when playing Houston

    7:38 PM
    CLEVELAND vs. NY YANKEES
    Cleveland is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
    Cleveland is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games at home
    NY Yankees are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Cleveland


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-08-2017 at 11:04 AM.

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