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Thread: Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/5

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    Default Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/5

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, October 5

    Good Luck on day #277 of 2017!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo:Thursday's six-pack

    — Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota is day-to-day with a hamstring injury.

    — Minnesota’s Taj Gibson will be the first NBA player EVER to wear uniform #67.

    — UTEP football coach Sean Kugler resigned this week, replaced by former Washington State coach Mike Price, who was also UTEP’s coach from 2004-12.

    — Atlanta’s Ersan Ilyasova led the NBA in charges drawn last year, with 36.

    — Texas Rangers fired their bullpen coach; obviously this season was all his fault.

    — Arizona 11, Colorado 8— Diamondbacks move on to face the Dodgers in next round.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

    13) With Giants playing the Chargers this weekend, Eli Manning faces the team that drafted him; Manning then forced a trade to the Giants by saying he didn’t want to play in San Diego.

    Ben Roethlisberger was also drafted in the first round that year: career playoff records of the three QB’s who are linked together in history:

    Roethlisberger (last of the 3 taken) 13-7, Manning 8-4, Rivers 4-5.

    Some NFL notes looking at how teams do on the first drive of each half:
    12) Jaguars/Packers are the only NFL teams who scored on the first drive of all their games; three FG’s and a TD for both teams.

    11) Bills-Bears-Colts are the three teams who haven’t scored on the first drive of a half; Falcons-Broncos-Giants are the three teams that haven’t allowed a point on the first drive of a half.

    10) On the first drive of their 8 halves this season, Detroit Lions have run 41 plays for 109 yards, 3 points; they’ve been outgained 298-109, outscored 17-3 by their opponents on 1st drives.

    9) NFL defines “explosive plays” as running plays longer than 11 yards, passing plays longer than 15 yards. Teams with the most this year: Patriots 48, Rams 43, Cardinals 39, Falcons 38

    Teams with fewest explosive plays: Dolphins 13 (in 3 games), Ravens 17, Bengals 23.

    8) From Gil Brandt: Since 1990, 28 of 196 NFL teams that started season 1-3 made the playoffs, with 2001 Patriots the only one of those 28 teams to win the Super Bowl.

    Elsewhere…….
    7) Toronto declined Jose Bautista’s option; he will be 37 in a couple weeks- he hit .203 this year. Will be interesting to see what kind of a contract he gets for next year.

    6) According to ***********, under has hit 55.1% of October NHL games the last four years.

    5) 8 guys from last year’s NBA All-Star Game changed teams in the off-season; that seems like a lot.

    4) Nevada Wolf Pack has 11 transfers on its roster; five are sitting out this season, six will be playing. Eric Musselman hasn’t recruited many freshmen in his tenure at Reno.

    3) Former Purdue hooper Robbie Hummel retired from playing, will be an analyst for the Big Ten Network and ESPN.

    2) Willie Reed signed a 3-year, $15M contract with the Miami Heat that was voided because he was represented by an agent who wasn’t certified by the NBA. Now he is on the Clippers, with a one-year deal for the minimum salary. Lot of leeches in the world, when there is money involved.

    1) If you had the Chiefs as the last unbeaten team in the NFL, you’re a hell of a lot smarter than I am.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-05-2017 at 10:38 AM.

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    Thursday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview and Odds

    The division series round opens with a tremendous pitching matchup when Boston's Chris Sale goes toe-to-toe with Astros'

    Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-130, 7)

    Series tied 0-0

    The Houston Astros battled all the way into the final weekend in the race for the best record in the American League and fell just short, leaving them to host the third-seeded AL East champion Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday. The second-seeded Astros made the biggest move of the waiver deadline period by bringing in Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers and will send him to the mound in Game 1.

    Verlander brings a 7-5 record and a 3.39 ERA in 16 career postseason starts to a Houston squad that led the AL in team batting average at .282 and features probable MVP and batting champion Jose Altuve. "I think that's the main goal, just be able to keep your feel, be able to come into the start, and be consistent," Verlander told reporters of his approach to the game. "As a starting pitcher, that's what it's about. I'm going to do whatever I can to help maintain my mechanics and the feel on the mound." The Red Sox will counter with Cy Young candidate Chris Sale, who struggled in September but had the luxury of taking the final day of the regular season off after Boston beat the Astros on Saturday to clinch the AL East. The Astros took three of four in that series and four of seven from the Red Sox during the regular season and went 48-33 at Minute Maid Park.

    TV:
    4 p.m. ET, MLB Network

    PITCHING MATCHUP:
    Red Sox LH Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36)

    Sale went 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA over his final eight starts and struggled to keep the ball in the park at times, including his final start against Toronto on Sept. 26 in which he served up four home runs. The Florida native will be making his first career postseason start and is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA in six career starts against Houston. "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this about 23 years," Sale told reporters. "This has been a long time coming. A lot of hard work went into this. It's a long season. We had a lot of guys put everything they had on the field the entire season. To have this opportunity right here, it's the best."

    Verlander earned his spot at the top of the Astros postseason rotation by going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since joining the team. The former MVP allowed four runs (three earned) in 12 innings over two starts against Boston earlier this season, though he did not factor in either decision. "You can't get prepared for it," Verlander told reporters of starting in the postseason. "You have to experience it by being out there and feeling the adrenaline, and experiencing it for yourself."

    TRENDS:


    * Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff road games.
    * Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 home games.
    * Astros are 5-0 in Verlander's 5 starts since joining the team.
    * Over is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts overall.
    * Over is 10-2 in Astros' last 12 Divisional Playoff games.
    * Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is leaning toward the home favorite Astros with 60 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a surprising 58 percent of the totals wagers.

    New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (-135, 8.5)

    Series tied 0-0

    Terry Francona made liberal use of his bullpen weapons while guiding the Cleveland Indians to the World Series last season, and Joe Girardi took that philosophy a step further while guiding the New York Yankees to the American League Division Series with a win in the wild-card game Tuesday. Girardi will try to find a way to beat Francona and the best team in the AL when the Yankees visit the top-seeded Indians in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday.

    Girardi got 26 outs from his bullpen after yanking starter Luis Severino with one out and three runs in in the first inning Tuesday against the Minnesota Twins, and Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman proved to be up to the task as the Yankees pulled out an 8-4 victory. "If you're playing four games in five nights, it's really difficult to do," Girardi told reporters of leaning heavily on the relievers. "You can do it probably two of the games of the four, but you can't do it back to back. And a lot of times you can -- if you were to do it on Game 2, you probably can't even do it on Game 3, even with the off-day in between." Francona rode left-hander Andrew Miller hard in the 2016 postseason and won't be afraid to do so again, though the Indians might have an even better team in 2017 after finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games. Cleveland surprised some by choosing Trevor Bauer to start Game 1 over ace Corey Kluber, while New York is expected to counter with Sonny Gray.

    TV:
    7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

    PITCHING MATCHUP:
    Yankees RH Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.55 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19)

    Gray went 4-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 starts after being acquired from the Oakland Athletics prior to the trade deadline but struggled some in September, surrendering nine home runs in 35 1/3 innings. The Vanderbilt product, who lost at Cleveland in his New York debut on Aug. 3, was ripped for six runs on six hits - two homers - over 4 2/3 innings in his final regular-season outing on Saturday. Gray is 0-1 in two career postseason starts despite a 2.08 ERA.

    Bauer aided the Indians' sprint to the finish by going 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last 13 games (12 starts) and allowed two runs in 13 innings over his final two starts. Two of those 13 outings came against New York on Aug. 4 and Aug. 30, and the UCLA product breezed to wins in both by scattering two runs over 13 frames and striking out 11. Bauer, who gets the start over Cy Young candidate Kluber so that Kluber can come back on regular rest in a potential Game 5 or Game 1 of the ALCS, went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in five games (four starts) during the 2016 postseason.

    TRENDS:


    * Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games.
    * Indians are 42-9 in their last 51 overall.
    * Indians are 6-0 in Bauer's last 6 starts vs. American League East.
    * Under is 5-1 in Bauer's last 6 starts overall.
    * Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in Cleveland.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is leaning toward the home favorite Indians with 77 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a 62 percent of the totals wagers.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-05-2017 at 10:45 AM.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Thursday, October 5


    Boston @ Houston

    Game 935-936
    October 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Boston
    (Sale) 16.883
    Houston
    (Verlnder) 17.936
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Houston
    by 1
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Houston
    -125
    7
    Dunkel Pick:
    Houston
    (-125); Over

    NY Yankees @ Cleveland


    Game 937-938
    October 5, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Yankees
    (Gray) 16.486
    Cleveland
    (Bauer) 17.694
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cleveland
    by 1
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Cleveland
    -135
    8 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (-135); Over





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Thursday, October 5


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BOSTON (93 - 69) at HOUSTON (101 - 61) - 4:05 PM
    CHRIS SALE (L) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOSTON is 0-10 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
    BOSTON is 7-11 (-8.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
    SALE is 3-9 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    SALE is 22-32 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
    HOUSTON is 101-61 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    BOSTON is 44-25 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
    HOUSTON is 12-22 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 21-24 (-13.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
    HOUSTON is 48-43 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 32-39 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    HOUSTON is 15-23 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    HOUSTON is 4-3 (+0.4 Units) against BOSTON this season
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

    CHRIS SALE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
    SALE is 5-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.31 and a WHIP of 0.708.
    His team's record is 5-1 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

    JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
    VERLANDER is 5-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.105.
    His team's record is 8-10 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-5.6 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY YANKEES (92 - 71) at CLEVELAND (102 - 60) - 7:35 PM
    SONNY GRAY (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY YANKEES are 19-30 (-11.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
    NY YANKEES are 11-22 (-13.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
    NY YANKEES are 14-20 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
    NY YANKEES are 48-43 (-7.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    GRAY is 19-30 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GRAY is 6-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GRAY is 4-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
    GRAY is 20-27 (-18.5 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
    CLEVELAND is 206-132 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 95-47 (+28.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 13-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 27-7 (+19.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 98-66 (+18.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 24-10 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    NY YANKEES are 47-31 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    CLEVELAND is 29-24 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 5-2 (+3.2 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

    SONNY GRAY vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
    GRAY is 3-3 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.146.
    His team's record is 4-4 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.8 units)

    TREVOR BAUER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
    BAUER is 3-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.60 and a WHIP of 1.511.
    His team's record is 4-4 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Thursday, October 5


    Boston @ Houston
    Astros are 4-3 vs Boston this season; road team won five of the seven games. Astros were just in Beantown last weekend, taking 3 of 4 mostly meaningless games.

    Sale is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts; his last five starts went over. This is his first playoff game. He is 5-1, 1.31 in six career starts vs Houston, but none were this year.

    Verlander is 5-0, 1.06 in five starts since coming to Houston (under 4-1). He is 4-2, 1.76 in his last 8 playoff starts.

    Red Sox are in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years; they got swept 3-0 by Cleveland in this round last year. Houston is in playoffs for second time in three years; they’ve never won the World Series, losing 4-0 to the White Sox in 2005.

    New York @ Cleveland
    New York is 2-5 vs Cleveland this season; road teams won five of the seven games. Losing team scored 1 or 2 runs in six of the seven games.

    Gray is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts; under is 6-3-2 in his starts for New York. He is 1-2, 5.94 vs Cleveland this season. New York is 2-4 in his road starts.

    Bauer is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is 2-0, 1.38 vs New York this season. Cleveland is 6-2 in his last eight home starts.

    New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012- they beat Twins 7-4 in Wild Card game Tuesday, with bullpen getting 26 of the 27 outs.

    Indians lost Game 7 of the World Series last year; they haven’t won a World Series since 1948. They’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years.




    MLB

    Thursday, October 5


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    4:08 PM
    BOSTON vs. HOUSTON
    Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
    Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home

    7:38 PM
    NY YANKEES vs. CLEVELAND
    NY Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
    Cleveland is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-05-2017 at 10:46 AM.

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