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Thread: Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/4

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    Default Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/4

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, October 4

    Good Luck on day #276 of 2017!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    — To football/TV guys: Please show number of plays run instead of time of possession– that is the better stat.

    — NFL reduced Chicago LB Danny Trevathan’s suspension from 2 games to 1, for his hit on a Packers’ WR last Thursday.

    — Indy QB Andrew Luck is back at practice with the Colts this week; not full-tilt, but his return to game action might not be too far away.

    — Big 14 hasn’t won a national title in basketball since Michigan State in 2000.

    — Buffalo Sabres signed star Jack Eichel to an 8-year, $80M contract extension.

    — NBA All-Star Game this winter will have teams chosen by the two players who get the most votes. NFL tried that with the Pro Bowl; it didn’t go well.


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……

    13) I’ll apologize up front if the first part of today’s Den is preachy or overly political, but I’m pretty sad about all the shootings in our country recently. This shouldn’t be happening.

    The 2nd Amendment was written in 1791, 226 years ago. Bicycles hadn’t been invented yet, so some of the laws passed then are obsolete now.

    Our gun laws are outdated; we need to ban automatic weapons and assault rifles and any guns that are only useful in wars. 58 people died for no reason Sunday night; little kids died a few years ago in a school shooting. This isn’t acceptable.

    If you’re a hunter, you’re not killing a deer or a rabbit with a freakin’ assault rifle- they are used by people who are involved in a war. They should be illegal in our country.

    12) The National Rifle Association (NRA) is really powerful; they’ve got lot of politicians in their pockets, which is why our gun laws are stupid.

    At some point when the mourning is over in Las Vegas, our politicians have to do their jobs and put a lid on the horrible weapons that are killing our own citizens. Please?!?!?!?

    11) It takes onions to be a policeman or a fireman, seriously. You have to have a lot of guts to to walk into the line of fire when everyone else is running away from it, so credit to the police in Las Vegas who saved a lot of people Sunday night.

    No one is perfect; not all cops are perfect, but dammit, they do a hell of a job protecting us and deserve our thanks. So….thank you!!!

    10) Something I learned this week; When you donate blood, it expires after 42 days. So many people donated blood in Las Vegas this week, but six weeks from now, they’re going to need more. Giving blood doesn’t cost us anything and it is badly needed, so we should do that.

    On to some of the fun things in life…….
    9) Los Angeles Rams are first NFL team since the 1954 Giants to lead the NFL in scoring thru four games, when they finished last in scoring the year before.

    8) JD Martinez is the first big leaguer since Johnny Bench in 1970 to hit 45+ homers in a season and not get hit by a pitch that season.

    7) Detroit Lions are +9 in turnovers already, with 11 takeaways in four games; thats a lot.

    6) San Antonio Spurs star Kawhi Leonard will sit out the whole preseason as he recovers from a quad injury. Regular season starts in two weeks.

    5) NFL stashes a lot of its less attractive games in Weeks 5-7, during the baseball playoffs. Wth 256 games in an NFL season, they’re all not great games. How they make the schedule is a very interesting subject- their marquee games are in primetime or later on in the season.

    4) Kermit Davis is the basketball coach at Middle Tennessee State, a very good mid-major team but not like they’re Gonzaga or VCU. Coach Davis makes $750,000 a year— that surprised me. MTSU must have some very well-heeled boosters who love basketball.

    3) I enjoyed watching the Miami Marlins this season; with Stanton-Ozuna-Urena on my fantasy team, I watched just about all their games. Not the best team, but they seemed like a bunch of good guys who genuinely like each other and enjoyed playing ball together. Was fun to see.

    2) One thing about baseball on TV; if you want to learn about your team, watch the first game of a series, with the OTHER TEAM’s ANNOUNCERS. TV/radio people talk before each series, to clue each other in on their teams, so all the broadcasts are more informed.

    If Team B’s announcers say something that is critical of a player on Team A, chances are 95% it came from one of Team A’s announcers. Team B’s TV guys are slow to criticize the home team, but not so much when it comes to criticizing Team A and as a viewer, you can learn that way.

    1) Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry both signed 5-year, $205M contracts; with an 82-game regular season, that means those two are both making $500,000 a game!!!!
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-04-2017 at 06:56 PM.

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    National League Wild Card playoff preview and odds: Rockies at Diamondbacks

    National League MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will go toe-to-toe in the 2017 NL Wild Card Game.

    Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (A: +155, H: -170, Total: 8.5)

    Two teams make their long-awaited return to the postseason when the Colorado Rockies visit the Arizona Diamondbacks for a battle of National League West rivals in the NL Wild Card Game on Wednesday night. The Diamondbacks are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2011 and had an 11-8 record this year against the Rockies, who make their first postseason appearance since 2009.

    Arizona went 52-29 at Chase Field this year and boast a powerful middle of the lineup as J.D. Martinez launched 29 homers in 62 games after being acquired from Detroit while Paul Goldschmidt knocked in 120 runs, but the first baseman finished the regular season by going 0-for-17. “I want these guys to understand that something special is happening here,” Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters. “I’ll tell them to embrace this. … This is the greatest time of year.” Colorado had to battle its way into the playoffs, edging Milwaukee by one game for the final spot, but led the NL in runs (824) while featuring the NL batting champ Charlie Blackmon (.331), the major league runner up in RBIs Nolan Arenado (130) and a red-hot Carlos Gonzalez, who was 9-for-15 in his last four games with five extra-base hits. Arizona’s starting pitcher Zack Greinke has given up five home runs in 42 at-bats to Gonzalez in his career but is 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA at home in 2017, while the Rockies will go with fellow hard-throwing righty Jon Gray, who finished the season with four straight wins - one of them against the Diamondbacks.

    TV:
    8 p.m. ET, TBS

    INJURY REPORT:

    Rockies - RP J. Diaz (Out For Season, Elbow)..

    Diamondbacks - RF D. Peralta (Probable, Neck), RP J. Sherfy (Questionable, Tricep), SS K. Marte (Questionable, Hamstring), SS N. Ahmed (Out For Season, Hand), SS C. Owings (Doubtful, Hand), RP S. Hathaway (Out For Season, Shoulder), RP R. Delgado (Out For Season, Elbow), RF Y. Tomas (Out For Season, Abdominal), SP S. Miller (Out For Season, Elbow).

    PITCHING MATCHUP:
    Rockies RH Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20)

    Gray became a key part of the rotation after the All-Star break while going 8-4 with a 3.65 ERA over 15 starts, and allowed seven runs across 30 innings in his last five outings. The 25-year-old Oklahoma native also struck out 10 to win at Arizona on June 30 and is 2-2 with a 4.75 ERA lifetime versus the Diamondbacks. Martinez is 2-for-6 with a pair of homers and David Peralta 6-for-13 with a triple against Gray, who has 112 strikeouts in 110 1/3 innings in 2017.

    Greinke reached 17 victories for the third time in four seasons, but struggled in his last home start against Miami on Sept. 22 when he permitted eight runs over four innings. The 33-year-old Orlando native, who ended the regular season by limiting Kansas City to two runs over four innings Friday, is 9-5 lifetime against Colorado after going 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA in five outings this season. Mark Reynolds and Trevor Story have homered four times apiece against Greinke.

    TRENDS:


    * Rockies are 1-7 in their last 8 playoff games.
    * Rockies are 4-0 in Grays last 4 road starts.
    * Diamondbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Diamondbacks are 20-6 in Greinkes last 26 home starts.
    * Under is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 road games.
    * Under is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the home chalk D-Backs at a rate of 67 percent and the Over is picking up 51 percent of the totals action.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-04-2017 at 06:58 PM.

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    MLB
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, October 4


    Colorado @ Arizona

    Game 933-934
    October 4, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Colorado
    (Gray) 17.281
    Arizona
    (Greinke) 14.194
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Colorado
    by 3
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Arizona
    -170
    8 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Colorado
    (+150); Over





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, October 4


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    COLORADO (87 - 75) at ARIZONA (93 - 69) - 8:05 PM
    JON GRAY (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    COLORADO is 247-441 (-83.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
    COLORADO is 447-708 (-138.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
    ARIZONA is 93-69 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    ARIZONA is 52-29 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
    ARIZONA is 45-31 (+11.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
    ARIZONA is 65-48 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    ARIZONA is 68-52 (+9.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    ARIZONA is 56-36 (+15.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    ARIZONA is 35-29 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GREINKE is 38-20 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    GREINKE is 53-21 (+20.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
    GREINKE is 15-3 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
    GREINKE is 100-49 (+37.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
    GREINKE is 69-27 (+34.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
    COLORADO is 87-75 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    COLORADO is 41-40 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
    COLORADO is 42-34 (+11.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
    COLORADO is 34-29 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    GRAY is 5-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
    ARIZONA is 237-235 (-57.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 11-8 (+1.6 Units) against COLORADO this season
    12 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+6.8 Units)

    JON GRAY vs. ARIZONA since 1997
    GRAY is 2-2 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 4.75 and a WHIP of 1.418.
    His team's record is 3-2 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)

    ZACK GREINKE vs. COLORADO since 1997
    GREINKE is 9-5 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.97 and a WHIP of 1.290.
    His team's record is 14-10 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-13. (-4.5 units)

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    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, October 4


    Colorado @ Arizona
    Arizona is 11-8 against the Rockies this season; teams split 10 games played here.

    Gray is 4-0, 2.10 in his last five starts; he is 2-1, 3.50 vs Arizona this season. His last four starts stayed under the total. Colorado is 7-5 in his road starts.

    Greinke makes $30M+ a year; he is expected to win this game. He was 1-1, 3.90 in five September starts, and is 2-1, 3.41 in five starts vs Colorado this season. Under is 8-2 in his last ten starts.

    Rockies are in playoffs for 4th time ever, first time since 2009; Arizona is in playoffs for first time since 2011- they last made the NLCS in 2007.




    MLB

    Wednesday, October 4


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    8:08 PM
    COLORADO vs. ARIZONA
    Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Colorado
    Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-04-2017 at 06:59 PM.

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