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Thread: The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

  1. #856
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    Total Talk - WC Saturday
    January 5, 2018


    The ‘under’ went 9-7 in Week 17 and that’s been the trend in the last quarter of the season with the low side finishing strong. Through 256 regular season games, the ‘under’ went 133-119-4 (52.7%).

    Last week’s card featured 16 divisional games and my numbers show the ‘under’ went 56-31-1 (64%) in those contests and we’ll have at least one in this year’s postseason with New Orleans and Carolina meeting this weekend.

    Including Super Bowl 52, this year’s playoffs will have three primetime games left with one night game scheduled on Saturday for both the Wild Card and Divisional Playoff Rounds. The ‘over’ (25-22-1) held a slight edge on the season but make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 10-4-1 since Week 12 in night games.

    Wild Card Trends

    Looking at the below results, you can see that the opening week of the playoffs has leaned to the low side. We did see a stalemate (2-2) last season but the ‘under’ has gone 14-5-1 (74%) in the Wild Card round the past five postseasons and going back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ‘under’ is 32-19-1 (64%) overall in the first round.

    FIRST ROUND TOTAL HISTORY (2004-2016)

    2017 2016 (Total 2-2)

    Tennessee at Kansas City Houston 27 Oakland 14 OVER 41
    Atlanta at L.A. Rams Seattle 26 Detroit 6 UNDER 45.5
    Buffalo at Jacksonville Pittsburgh 30 Miami 12 UNDER 47.5
    Carolina at New Orleans Green Bay 38 N.Y. Giants 13 OVER 46.5

    2015 (Under 3-1) 2014 (Under 2-1-1)

    Kansas City 30 Houston 0 - UNDER 39.5 Carolina 27 Arizona 16 - OVER 38
    Pittsburgh 18 Cincinnati 16 - UNDER 46 Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 17 - PUSH 47
    Seattle 10 Minnesota 9 - UNDER 40 Indianapolis 26 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47
    Green Bay 35 Washington 18 - OVER 48 Dallas 24 Detroit 20 - UNDER 48.5

    2013 (Under 3-1) 2012 (Under 4-0)
    Kansas City 44 Indianapolis 45 - OVER 48 Cincinnati 13 Houston 19 - UNDER 42.5
    New Orleans 26 Philadelphia 24 - UNDER 55.5 Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24 - UNDER 44
    San Diego 27 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47.5 Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24 - UNDER 47.5
    San Francisco 23 Green Bay 20 - UNDER 46.5 Seattle 24 Washington 14 - UNDER 45

    2011 (Over 3-1) 2010 (Under 3-1)
    Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38 Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5
    Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5 N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44
    Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47 Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41
    Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34 Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5

    2009 (Over 4-0) 2008 (Under 3-1)
    N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34 Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5
    Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5 San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49
    Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5 Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38
    Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48 Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41

    2007 (Total 2-2) 2006 (Under 3-1)
    Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39 Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5
    Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41 Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48
    N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5 New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5
    San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39 Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5

    2005 (Under 3-1) 2004 (Under 3-1)
    Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37 St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5
    New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37 N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43
    Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5 Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56
    Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5 Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5

    Saturday, Jan. 6


    For the playoffs, I’m going to break every game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

    Tennessee at Kansas City (ABC, 4:30 p.m. ET)

    This total opened 45 last Sunday at BookMaker.eu and has slightly dipped to 44 as of Friday. The pair recently played in the 2014 and 2016 regular seasons and both games took place at Arrowhead Stadium. Surprisingly, Tennessee came away with victories in each game (26-10, 19-17) and the ‘under’ was never in doubt in both contests. The oddsmakers aren’t expecting the Titans to capture another victory, listing the Chiefs as healthy home favorites (-8 ) for this game.

    The spread on the game seems fair considering Kansas City closed the season with four straight wins and the offense turned it on again, averaging 28 points per game after a midseason drought. Also, the defense has stepped up as well and they only surrendered 16.3 PPG during this stretch and that’s where they should have an advantage in this game, especially at home.

    In games at Kansas City, the defense has stifled opponents to 16.9 PPG and that’s helped produce a 5-2-1 ‘under’ mark. That unit will be facing a pedestrian Tennessee (20.9 PPG) offense that hasn’t been able to find any rhythm on the road (17.5 PPG) and it was held under 20 points in six of its eight away games.

    The Titans won’t have running back DeMarco Murray (knee) available and that only puts more pressure on quarterback Marcus Mariota, who be making his playoff debut. The former Oregon standout has the ability to beat you with his legs but he doesn’t put much fear into you with his arm (13 TDs, 15 INTs) and that’s due to conservative play-calling and a lack of weapons on the outside.

    Tennessee’s defense is tough to figure out due to its strength of schedule (31st) but it is ranked fourth against the run, allowing 88.8 yards per game. Overall, the team is ranked 13th in total defense (328 YPG) and that’s much better than Kansas City (265.1 YPG, No. 28). The Titans have gone 5-2 this season when they’ve held teams under 20 points and I would assume this week’s game-plan for Tennessee is to muck it up and try to be within striking distance of the Chiefs come the fourth quarter which is much easier said than done.

    Fearless Prediction: Even though Kansas City has dropped its last five playoff games at home and it’s only averaged 14.2 PPG in those losses, I expect a big bounce back in this spot. The Titans are taking a major step up in class and they played the second weakest schedule this season. They’re 1-3 versus playoff teams, the lone win against the Jaguars early in the season. Under head coach Andy Reid, Kansas City is 1-3 in the playoffs but the best offensive efforts came in their opening games with 44 and 30 points posted. I expect another number in that neighborhood and would take Kansas City Team Total Over 26 for the first playoff matchup on Saturday.

    Atlanta at L.A. Rams (NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET)

    According to Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu, this total is shaping up to be a ‘Pros vs. Joes’ battle. He said, “The Falcons-Rams under has seen the most smart-money, but the public is offsetting our liability with over wagers.”

    The total was sent out at 49 last Sunday at the offshore outfit but is sitting at 48 as of Friday afternoon. I expect the number to get back to the opener with the game being played at night and a lot of the masses tend to lean Falcons-Over or Rams-Over when these teams are in action. The combination where Los Angeles has won, covered and gone ‘over’ has hit six times this season but it only occurred once at the L.A. Coliseum and that result occurred in Week 1 when they hammered the Colts 46-9.

    The Rams were tied for the best ‘over’ mark in the NFL this season at 11-5 and they closed their campaign with five consecutive tickets to the high side. However, the ‘over’ was just 4-3 in games played in Los Angeles (1 London game) and I wouldn’t put much stock into the Week 17 result which was a 34-13 loss to the 49ers.

    While the Rams have been leaning high, the Falcons ended the season with five straight ‘under’ tickets and they saw the low side go 11-5 this season which is a complete 180 from last year’s results. During their Super Bowl run, Atlanta saw the ‘over’ go 13-2-1 in the regular season and it also went 3-0 to the high side in the postseason too.

    The offense averaged 34.1 PPG during last season but has taken drastic steps back to 22.1 PPG this season. While the attack has sputtered, the defense has only allowed 19.7 PPG and that’s a major improvement from last season when they allowed 25.3 PPG. They were ranked ninth in rushing defense (104 PG) but the unit will face a serious test against Rams running back Todd Gurley.

    Los Angeles certainly doesn’t have the same postseason experience as Atlanta but most of the recent success in the playoffs for the franchise has come at home. QB Matt Ryan owns a career 3-5 mark in the playoffs and that includes a 0-2 record in true road games, 0-3 if you include the Super Bowl last season. To be fair to Ryan, Atlanta has allowed 30, 24 and 34 points in those games and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 2-1 in those games.

    Fearless Prediction:
    While the Falcons have the playmakers and ability to put up points, they’ve been too inconsistent all season and the offense has settled more for field goals (34) instead of touchdowns (33). This total is inflated due to Atlanta’s past offensive trends and I believe its defense is one of the top units in football. In seven games against playoff teams, the Falcons allowed 18.6 PPG and the ‘under’ cashed in all those games. The Rams are new to this postseason and while the offense has travelled well, their attack hasn’t been as potent in Los Angeles and I believe they could be tight come Saturday night. My ‘Best Bet’ for this game is the ‘under’ (48) for the game and I would also play the Team Total Under on Atlanta (21) and Los Angeles (27) as well.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    NFL Wild Card opening line report: Sharp action moves lines early
    Patrick Everson

    "We know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be."

    A wild ending to Week 17 of the NFL season led to a late change in the roster of 12 playoff teams, eight of which will be on the field next weekend for the wild card playoff round. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)

    Buffalo got a late Christmas gift from the Cincinnati Bengals, who scored a last-minute touchdown to knock Baltimore out of the playoffs and put the Bills (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) into the postseason. Buffalo did its part Sunday by beating Miami 22-16 as a 2.5-point road favorite, then waited out the Bengals-Ravens game, with Baltimore’s loss sending the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

    Jacksonville already had the AFC’s No. 3 seed locked up prior to Sunday, and though the squad had plenty of betting support in Vegas, it didn’t translate to the field. The Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) lost a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog.

    Cooley said early sharp money came in on No. 6 seed Buffalo, dropping the line to Jags -7.

    “This feels like a high number, and some on the team wanted to see a much lower spread,” Cooley said. “We’ll see what Blake Bortles and that Jags offense is really made of here. Smart money feels like an under play on the total, and the betting public won’t be terribly interested in this one overall. The Bills are a value play that will garner pro money.”

    To Cooley’s point on the under, Bookmaker.eu opened the total at 41, and it was quickly bet down to 40 for this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.

    Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

    Tennessee needed a Week 17 win to reach the playoffs, and ugly as it may have been, Mike Mularkey’s troops got the job done. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snapped a nearly season-killing three-game SU skid by beating Jacksonville 15-10 as a 2.5-point chalk to nab the No. 5 seed.

    AFC West champ Kansas City couldn’t move up from the No. 4 seed, but that didn’t prevent Andy Reid’s squad from beating a hapless Denver unit. The Chiefs (10-6 SU and ATS) notched a 27-24 victory as a 3-point road ‘dog, despite resting quarterback Alex Smith and several other starters.

    Cooley was nonplused by Tennessee, but the Titans did see early sharp action, taking the line from K.C. -7.5 to -7 for this 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting.

    “Our ratings have the Titans as the worst team in the playoffs,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs have certainly been uninspiring during the second half of the season, but we’re going to have trouble attracting Tennessee money here. Like the other AFC matchup, it’s definitely not the sexiest, and we’ll have ample teaser and parlay liability with both of the favorites.”

    Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6)

    Defending NFC champion Atlanta had to win in Week 17 to ensure the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The Falcons (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) put the clamps on Carolina in a 22-10 victory laying 5 points at home.

    Third-seeded Los Angeles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) already had the NFC West locked up heading into Week 17 and rested quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley, among others. So it wasn’t a huge surprise that the Rams lost to Jimmy Garoppolo and late-surging San Francisco, 34-13 as a 6-point home pup.

    “We know that we’ll see solid Atlanta money from the public, given the star power on the team, but this isn’t your older brother’s Rams bunch,” Cooley said. “We do expect this to be bet down, but at the end of the day, L.A. is multiple pegs higher in the power ratings. We should get solid two-way action from the sharps and squares at this number.”

    Indeed, the number was bet down quickly for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest, with early sharp action on the visiting Falcons taking the line from L.A. -6 to -4.5.

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

    New Orleans ended up as the NFC South champion, but didn’t exactly end on the strongest note while falling from the No. 3 seed to No. 4 in Week 17. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) went to Tampa Bay as a 6-point fave and lost on a last-minute TD pass 31-24.

    Carolina could have taken advantage of that and claimed the division title and a home wild card game, but couldn’t get enough offense in its finale. The Panthers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) fell to Atlanta 22-10 catching 5 points on the road.

    “Given how this series played out during the regular season, the average bettor might expect a number closer to a touchdown,” Cooley said, alluding to New Orleans’s 34-13 road win over Carolina on Sept. 24 and the Saints’ 31-21 home repeat performance a month ago. “But we know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be.”

    Still, the Saints got a little early shove from bettors, taking them from -5.5 to -6 for Sunday’s 4:30 p.m. ET clash.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Wildcard Round


    Saturday, December 6

    Tennessee @ Kansas City

    Game 101-102
    January 6, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    131.239
    Kansas City
    143.763
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 12 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 7 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-7 1/2); Under

    Atlanta @ LA Rams


    Game 103-104
    January 6, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    132.002
    LA Rams
    141.621
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 9 1/2
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 4
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-4); Over



    Sunday, December 7

    Buffalo @ Jacksonville

    Game 105-106
    January 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    135.109
    Jacksonville
    138.776
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 3 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 7 1/2
    39 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    (+7 1/2); Over

    Carolina @ New Orleans


    Game 107-108
    January 7, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    136.404
    New Orleans
    140.511
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 6 1/2
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    Carolina
    (+6 1/2); Under





    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 17


    Saturday, December 6

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 6) - 1/6/2018, 4:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
    KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ATLANTA (10 - 6) at LA RAMS (11 - 5) - 1/6/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
    ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    LA RAMS is 184-231 ATS (-70.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 184-231 ATS (-70.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 84-120 ATS (-48.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 132-182 ATS (-68.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 143-183 ATS (-58.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 62-96 ATS (-43.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 68-98 ATS (-39.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, December 7

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BUFFALO (9 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (10 - 6) - 1/7/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BUFFALO is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CAROLINA (11 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) - 1/7/2018, 4:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CAROLINA is 113-84 ATS (+20.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 3-3 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    NFL

    Wildcard Round


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, December 6

    TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
    Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    ATLANTA @ LA RAMS
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Atlanta


    Sunday, December 7

    BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
    Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card weekend
    Ashton Grewal

    Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 44.5)

    Titans’ red zone defense vs. Chiefs’ red zone offense

    KC head coach Andy Reid is known to fumble the timeout/challenge dynamic, but one of the Chiefs’ most glaring shortcomings is in the red zone. Kansas City ranks 29th in touchdown conversion once it gets inside the 20-yard line with just 42 percent of its chances ending in end zone celebrations.

    Tennessee’s defense ranks inside the top 10 for lowest red zone TDs surrendered this season and the unit allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (five) on the year.

    Kansas City owns a league best 4.7 yards per carry average, but that’s based more of the first five weeks of the season when Kareem Hunt was taking the NFL by storm. The rookie running back averaged 6.3 yards in his first five games and 3.9 from Week 6 to Week 16.

    Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)

    Rams’ second half defense vs. Falcons’ second half offense

    Just like Tiger Woods from a decade ago, the Los Angeles Rams are used to playing in front on Sundays. The Rams lead the league in scoring at 29.9 points per game – more than double their average from last season – and most of that damage came in the first and third quarters.

    Los Angeles’ defense is able to get after opposing quarterbacks once the score differential dictates a heavy percentage of pass plays. Aaron Donald and Co. held their foes to 8.8 second-half points per game which ranks as the fourth best second half scoring defense in the league.

    The Falcons made a habit of scoring early but then struggling to put up points as the games progressed. About 56 percent of Atlanta’s season points were scored in the first 30 minutes of games and the squad averaged just 3.2 points per third quarter.

    Anyone who watched the Falcons play this year knows their offensive execution hasn’t been at the same level since Steve Sarkisian took over as the OC – especially late in games.

    Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, 39.5)

    Jaguars’ passing defense vs. Bills’ passing offense

    There was a reason the Bills coaching staff and management wanted to see what their offense would look like with Nathan Peterman running the show - and not just to bring back the J. Peterman references. His disastrous start – which included five first half interceptions – overshadows Tyrod Taylor’s ugly passing numbers. Taylor passed for 2799 yards and averaged just 6.66 yards per pass attempt.

    Only the Chicago Bears averaged fewer passing yards per game than the Bills at 176.6 and Buffalo finished second last in pass completions per game. The Bills’ top target is a lumbering tight end (Charles Clay) which probably explains why they finished last in the league in yards after catch (1230).

    Jacksonville flexes its defensive muscle most when opponents turn to the air. The Jags allowed league-low 169.9 passing yards per game, finished with the second most sacks and were No. 2 in team interceptions with 21.

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 48.5)

    Saints’ passing offense vs. Panthers’ passing defense

    Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara caught all the headlines in the Big Easy this season after the Saints finished with a top five rushing attack for the first time under head coach Sean Payton. That’s not to say New Orleans can’t chuck the ball around the field with veteran quarterback Drew Brees.

    The Saints finished fifth in passing yards gained per game at 261.8 and led the league in passer completion percentage with Brees connecting on 72 percent of his pass attempts.

    Carolina’s defense excels against the run but struggles with the ball in the air. The Panthers allowed a league-worst 300.3 passing yards per contest in the last three weeks of the season.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    NFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wildcard Round


    Titans (9-7) @ Chiefs (10-6)— Chiefs won/covered first five games and also last four, but they went 1-6 in between. KC is 6-2 at home this season, 5-2 as home favorites. Six of their last eight games stayed under total. Tennessee is in playoffs for first time since 2008; their last playoff win was in 2003. Chiefs are in playoffs for third year in row- they’re 1-10 in last 11 playoff games, with the one win two years ago. Titans made playoffs despite losing three of last four games; they’re 3-5 on road, 0-3 as road underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. Last five years, favorites are 12-8 vs spread in this round. Favorites covered the #4-5 seed game in AFC four of last five years. Andy Reid is 11-12 coaching in playoffs, 1-5 since 2009.

    Falcons (10-6) @ Rams (11-5)— Atlanta came to LA last year and crushed Rams 42-14, Fisher’s last game as Rams’ coach. Falcons are defending NFC champs; Rams are in playoffs for first time since ’04, when they lost 47-17 in Atlanta. Falcons won six of last eight games, are 5-3 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs. Under is 11-2 in Atlanta’s last 13 games. Rams led NFL in scoring; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year. Last five LA games went over total. Falcons had to win late game last Sunday to make it here; most LA starters took last week off, so Rams should be more rested, with game on short week. #3-seed in NFC beat #6-seed in this game four of last six years. Falcons won last four series games, scoring 31+ points in all four.

    Bills (9-7) @ Jaguars (10-6)— Jaguars coach Marrone was 15-17 as Bills’ coach in 2014-15, but then he abruptly quit; there were hard feelings. Bills won three of last four games; they’re 3-5 on road this season, 3-3 as road underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under total. Jaguars won last five home games (4-1 vs spread); they lost last two weeks, after hey clinched playoff berth. Three of their last four games went over. Buffalo is in playoffs for first time since 1999; their last playoff win was in ’95. Jacksonville is in playoffs for first time since 2007. Bills won three of last four games with Jaguars- the only loss was in London. Teams split last four meetings played here. #6-seed in AFC beat the #3-seed in this game three of last four years.

    Panthers (11-5) @ Saints (11-5)— New Orleans won both meetings this year, 34-13 (+5.5) in Week 3, then 31-21 (-6) at home in Week 13. Saints scored 8 TD’s on 21 drives in those games, with 12 plays of 20+ yards- they ran for 148-149 yards, only two games all year that Carolina allowed more than 120 rushing yards. Carolina won seven of last nine games; they’re 5-3 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games went over total. Saints won their last seven home games; NO is 4-3 as home favorites. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Panthers are in playoffs for 4th time in last five years; Saints are in for first time since ’13. Last six times they made playoffs, NO is 5-1 in its first playoff game that year. #5-seed beat #4-seed in this game three of last five years; favorites covered last six.

    Titans @ Chiefs (-7, 44.5)
    Falcons @ Rams (-5.5, 49.5)
    Bills @ Jaguars (-7, 40)
    Falcons @ Saints (-6. 48.5)
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  6. #861
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    published Jan. 2

    NFL Wild Card lines that make you go hmmm...
    Peter Korner

    Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 44)

    This line opened up at a low of Kansas City -7.5 and quickly jumped up everywhere to -8 and in some instances, -8.5. My sendout was -8.5 but I could have easily used -9 and would have been happy with that.

    Playoff time can be a scary time for the bookmaker. It sometimes comes down to a winner-take-all situation with so few games and less areas to spread the money around. But as we all know; the betting public has their eyes on favorites and the over. Making this truly a game bookmakers should have over compensated on the spread and forced the wise guys to commit their money early on the dog where they could count on the layman’s bets to counter act it on game day.

    The more anyone studies this game, is more reason to play the Chiefs. Quarterback comparisons can pretty much be called for Kansas City early by merely looking at the basic stats of each starter. Titans’ signal caller Marcus Mariota, who has 3,232 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 15 interceptions can’t compete with a seasoned pro like the Chiefs’ Alex Smith, who logged 4,042 yards with a 26-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

    The Chiefs are hot, winners of four in a row and seemed to have captured their mojo back. The Titans have lost three of their past four games and haven’t scored more than 24 points in their last 10 games. In the past three years, KC has outscored Tennessee 64-16 in two meetings at Arrowhead Stadium.

    All of that said, this looks like a typical line history with the betting public placing their money on the favorite, jacking up this line towards -9 (and maybe higher) and then the wise guys taking the highest possible number on game day to drive this back down to the -8 area. Bookmakers would be wise to hold the line high early in the week and force the squares to take the worst line and entice the wise guys late with their balancing bets on Sunday. I mean how wise can you be taking the favorite at -9?

    Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)

    Another foolish number by those who make the opening lines. Second game of two where all of the chaser’s money will stream into the favorite. A huge LA market ready to bet their newly minted team having so much success. A -4? Wow, someone is getting a little lazy with these numbers.

    I could have said seven from the get-go, but didn’t. I had -6 myself and they already blew by that before the opening day was done. A ton of money will be influenced by the success or failure of the favorite in the first game, so you have to set this line high and force the masses to take a bad number because they hate to take the dog in any case.

    But this is an easy read. If the Chiefs handle business, money will continue to follow the favorites and jack this number up or at least keep it high until kickoff. If the dog comes through in game one of the day, money will find the favorite as a “due factor”. There’s no way you can be too high on this number to start the betting off. At -4, bookmakers gave away five limit bets before the week started.

    I fully thought this line would be around a touchdown from the start and truly feel it is the correct betting line for bookmakers. But my gut says the Atlanta Falcons are the play due to their team experience, quarterback experience and overall current standing. Although the wise guys got a great early number, I think they’ll wait for the public push on the favorite and take the dog again on the backside game day. The game landing -4 or -6 gets them the side or even a middle.

    Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8, 39)

    I’m taking a pass on this line, as a lot will be determined by LeSean McCoy’s status. However, this number seems a little high in regards that the total is so low.

    If McCoy is deemed not worthy to play, one advantage for deal seekers is that this line may go up even farther. But the Bills may surprise, by opening up their offensive options instead of pounding the ball with one man. Therefore, creating a unique game-plan that Jacksonville may not have been counting on.

    In a one-game situation, I think the higher the line, the better the value Buffalo would be.

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7, 48)

    Tough line to make, but again, bookmakers failed to anticipate the betting public. This is the fourth game out of all four being played over this weekend that the early money was on the home favorite. I’m not quite sure what oddsmakers were thinking when they made these four lines but it sure was an easy giveaway to the wise guys who had first access.

    Each of these four games has a decent (although small) chance of being sided or middled. When you’re talking about the playoffs and the abbreviated schedule and high volume for each game, this can spell catastrophe for the bookmaker if just one game lands.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    NFL

    Saturday, December 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Wild Card playoff betting preview and odds: Titans at Chiefs
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 44.5)

    Arrowhead Stadium has provided the Kansas City Chiefs one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL – until the postseason. The Chiefs will try to record their first home playoff victory in 24 years when they host the Tennessee Titans on Saturday in an AFC wild-card matchup.

    The back-to-back AFC West champion Chiefs have won four straight following a midseason lull and again look like a contender. Their defense made a dramatic turnaround over the final month of the regular season, holding each of their last four opponents under 350 total yards while forcing 12 turnovers. The Titans are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008, squeaking in by snapping a three-game skid with a 15-10 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday. Tennessee went 3-5 on the road, where it averaged just 17.5 points and 270.8 total yards.

    TV:
    4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home favorites over the Titans. The spread was bet up as high as -9 before dropping slightly to -8 on Thursday evening. The total hit betting boards at 44.5 and remains on that same number heading into the weekend.

    WEATHER REPORT:



    INJURY REPORT:


    Titans - TE Jonnu Smith (Probable, Concussion), CB Logan Ryan (Probable, Illness), CB Kalan Reed (Probable, Concussion), CB Brice McCain (Probable, Hamstring), G Quinton Spain (Questionable, Back), S Da'Norris Searcy (Questionable, Illness), RB DeMarco Murray (Out, Knee), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable, Back), CB LeShaun Sims (I-R, Hamstring), DL DaQuan Jones (I-R, Bicep), QB Alex Tanney (I-R, Foot), WR Tajae' Sharpe (I-R, Foot), LB Victor Ochi (I-R, Knee).

    Chiefs - WR Albert Wilson (Probable, Hamstring), WR Tyreek Hill (Probable, Personal), DL Bennie Logan (Probable, Knee), RB Charcandrick West (Probable, Flu), DL Jarvis Jenkins (Questionable, Knee), LB Tamba Hali (Questionable, Knee), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Doubtful, Ankle), DB Phillip Gaines (I-R, Elbow), WR De'Anthony Thomas (I-R, Leg), RB Akeem Hunt (I-R, Ankle), OL Mitch Morse (I-R, Foot), DB Steven Terrell (I-R, Undisclosed), LB Dee Ford (I-R, Back), LB Dadi Nicolas (I-R, Knee), WR Chris Conley (I-R, Achilles), DB Eric Berry (I-R, Achilles), RB Spencer Ware (I-R, Knee), DB Ashton Lampkin (I-R, Knee).

    ABOUT THE TITANS (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U):
    Tennessee’s offense has shown flashes of brilliance but has been inconsistent, with everything hinging on the running game. DeMarco Murray is doubtful with a torn MCL, meaning Derrick Henry likely will carry the load and try to establish the run to open up the passing game for Marcus Mariota. Tennessee’s defense ranks fourth against the run and came up big last week against the Jaguars with four takeaways.

    ABOUT THE CHIEFS (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U):
    Kansas City’s offense went through a slump while losing six of seven games in the middle of the season, but everything clicked again in its last four contests. Rookie Kareem Hunt finished as the NFL’s leading rusher while Alex Smith joined Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks in the league to pass for more than 4,000 yards with fewer than 10 interceptions, finishing with 4,042 yards and five picks. The Chiefs’ once-suspect secondary played well down the stretch.

    TRENDS:


    * Titans are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games.
    * Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
    * Under is 4-0 in Titans' last 4 playoff games.
    * Under is 4-1 in Chiefs' last 5 playoff home games.
    * Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The public is siding with the road dog Titans at a rate of 54 percent and the Under is getting 53 percent of the totals action.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  8. #863
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    NFL

    Saturday, December 6


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Wild Card playoff betting preview and odds: Falcons at Rams
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Atlanta Falcons at L.A. Rams (-5.5, 48)

    The Atlanta Falcons rolled through the playoffs en route to the Super Bowl a year ago behind a high-powered offense that led the league in scoring. For the Falcons to take the first step toward a return trip to the title game, they will have to slow the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense when they visit the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday night.

    Sixth-seeded Atlanta blew a 25-point lead over New England in a stunning collapse before falling in overtime in Super Bowl LI and has not looked like the same team this season despite registering 10 wins. “We’ve been tested,” Falcons coach Dan Quinn told reporters. “We’re battle-ready. ... This week will be another battle. This is now also when we get to test what we’ve done over the last 20 weeks to see how we can work together, and we’re really excited to do it.” The Rams won four games last season but earned their first trip to the playoffs behind second-year quarterback Jared Goff and star running back Todd Gurley, who are among the leading MVP candidates. "We certainly don’t shy away from what a great opportunity it is to be able to play on Saturday night, prime time," Los Angeles first-year coach Sean McVay told reporters. "I think it’s something that our guys will be excited about, going against the defending NFC champs."

    TV:
    8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Rams opened as 5-point home chalk and money coming in on the home team saw that line up as high as -7 at some shops, before fading late in the week too -5.5. The total hit the betting board at 49.5 and has been bet down slightly to 48.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "Atlanta holds the playoff experience edge in this game and as an underdog against a young Los Angeles squad. However, this is a tough scheduling situation for the Falcons as they must travel across the country on a short week, after two hard fought divisional games against the Saints and Panthers to finish the regular season." - Steve Merril[/B]

    WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Out of the gate we took smart action on Atlanta, but mostly since then it's been nothing but Rams money. Just recently we got some buyback on the Falcons, and currently we’re looking at 63 percent of the handle on L.A. The under is a popular pro play in that game but public loves the over." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    WEATHER REPORT:




    INJURY REPORT:


    Falcons - RB Devonta Freeman (Probable, Knee), WR Julio Jones (Questionable, Ankle), Wr Andre Roberts (Questionable, Knee), DE Adrian Clayborn (Questionable, Calf), C Alex Mack (Questionable, Calf), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), TE Levine Toilolo (Questionable, Knee), WR Taylor Gabriel (Questionable, Hamstring), G Andy Levitre (I-R, Tricep), LB Jordan Tripp (Questionable, Concussion).

    Rams - WR Pharaoh Cooper (Questionable, Shoulder), WR Mike Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), LB Mark Barron (Questionable, Achilles), LB Alec Ogletree (Questionable, Elbow), G Rodger Saffold (Questionable, Ribs), WR Cooper Kupp (Questionable, Knee), DB Blake Countess (Questionable, Concussion), DB Marqui Christian (I-R, Shoulder), DE Matt Longacre (I-R, Back), QB Brandon Allen (I-R, Back), K Greg Zuerlein (I-R, Back), CB Kayvon Webster (I-R, Ankle).

    ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U):
    Atlanta won six of its last eight, with the only two losses coming against division winners Minnesota and New Orleans, but Matt Ryan had only five touchdown passes versus four interceptions in the final six games. He still has one of the league's most dangerous targets in Julio Jones, who caught 88 passes and eclipsed 1,400 yards (1,444) for the fourth straight season. The Falcons also feature the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a combined 1,493 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 63 receptions and four scores. Atlanta surrendered 19.7 points per game and allowed only one 100-yard rusher.

    ABOUT THE RAMS (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 11-5 O/U):
    Goff hardly looked ready for the bright lights after the 2016 No. 1 overall pick threw for five touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven games as a rookie, but he tossed 28 scoring passes against only seven picks this season. Gurley rushed for 1,305 yards and led the league in touchdowns (19) and yards from scrimmage (2,093) while rushing for more than 100 yards six times. Gurley also topped the team with 64 receptions while rookie Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods recorded five TDs apiece while making 62 and 56 catches, respectively. The Rams ranked 28th against the run despite the presence of stud tackle Aaron Donald (11 sacks).

    TRENDS:


    * Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

    * Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.

    * Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 playoff games.

    * Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games overall.

    * Favorite is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:


    The public is siding with the home chalk Rams at a rate of 52 percent and the Over is getting 61 percent of the totals action.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  9. #864
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    SATURDAY, JANUARY 6
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    TEN at KC 04:35 PM
    TEN +8.5
    U 44.5


    ATL at LAR 08:15 PM
    ATL +5.5
    O 48.0
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  10. #865
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    NFL Playoff Capsules
    January 7, 2018


    KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Marcus Mariota did everything to help the Titans advance in the playoffs, throwing a crazy touchdown pass to himself, running for crucial first downs and providing the kind of spark that Tennessee needed to rally from an 18-point halftime hole. He even threw a crucial block on the run that clinched the game.

    It all added up to a heart-stopping 22-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday, the first postseason win for the Titans in 14 years and one that will provide some relief - for the week, at least - for embattled coach Mike Mularkey and his underdog squad.

    Mariota had 205 yards passing and two touchdowns, including the go-ahead 22-yard strike to Eric Decker with six minutes left. The Titans will find out Sunday whether they're headed to New England or Pittsburgh next.

    Derrick Henry added a career-high 156 yards rushing and another score for Tennessee (10-7), while a defense fileted by Alex Smith and the Chiefs (10-7) in the first half pitched a shutout in the second half - dooming the Kansas City franchise to another humiliating postseason defeat.

    Smith threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns for the Chiefs, who haven't won a home playoff game since January 1994.

    FALCONS 26, RAMS 13


    LOS ANGELES (AP) - Matt Ryan passed for 218 yards and hit Julio Jones for an 8-yard touchdown with 5:48 to play, and the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons advanced from the wild-card round with a methodical victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

    Devonta Freeman rushed for an early score and Matt Bryant kicked four field goals for the Falcons (11-6), who spoiled the Rams' first playoff game in 13 years while showing off the postseason poise they earned from last season's journey to the Super Bowl.

    Atlanta never trailed at the Coliseum while winning playoff games in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history, jumping to an early 13-0 lead while capitalizing on two early mistakes by Pharoh Cooper, the Rams' Pro Bowl kick returner.

    The Falcons' defense did more than enough to slow down the NFL's highest-scoring offense, harassing Jared Goff into a 24-for-45 performance in his playoff debut. Robert Woods caught nine passes for 142 yards for the NFC West champion Rams (11-6), but rookie Cooper Kupp scored the Rams' only touchdown late in the first half. Atlanta held MVP candidate Todd Gurley to 101 yards rushing - just 43 in the first three quarters - and four receptions for a mere 10 yards.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    nfl playoff record:

    Date w-l-t % units record

    01/06/2018 3-1-0 75.00% +950


    best bets:...................ats...................unit s....................o/u......................units

    01/06/2018....................2 - 0..............+10.00......................1 - 1....................-0.50
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    NFL

    Sunday, December 7


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NFL Wild Card playoff betting preview and odds: Bills at Jaguars
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, 39.5)

    The Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills have one thing in common entering Sunday's AFC wild-card matchup - they hardly were trendy choices to make it to the postseason. The Jaguars will make their first playoff appearance since 2007 when they host the Bills, who staged a late run to reach the postseason for the first time since 1999.

    Jacksonville was no fluke in going from worst to first, not only winning the AFC South title but also contending for the top overall seed until a surprising loss at San Francisco in Week 16. "They're a challenge across the board - offense, defense, special teams," Bills coach Sean McDermott told reporters. "You look at where they're ranked and where we are, and ask, 'What favors us?' Not a whole lot." Buffalo's one-dimensional offense could be without star running back LeSean McCoy as it prepares to face a Jaguars defense that ranks among the league leaders in yards and points allowed, sacks and interceptions. "This is the start of a different type of season," Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone, who guided the Bills in 2013-14, told reporters. "This is 12 teams. ... Every one of those teams is dangerous, and it comes down to how you perform on that Sunday."

    TV:
    1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

    LINE HISTORY:
    Oddsmakers opened the Jaguars as 7-point home favourites and that wasn't high enough for bettors, as the line was bet up to -9, before fading back to -8.5 at most books. The total opened at 40 and has been bet down a full point to 39.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "The condition of RB Shady McCoy is of paramount concern to the Bills in this contest, especially considering that Jacksonville was 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in games in which they held foes to under 100 rushing yards this season. That and Buffalo was 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS this campaign in games in which they failed to rush for 100 yards. The Jaguars faced the softest strength of schedule the NFL this season and capitalized. However, they were especially adept against foes winning records, too, going 4-2 SUATS. " -Marc Lawrence.

    INJURY REPORT:


    Bills - OT Conor McDermott (Questionable, Chest), CB Shareece Wright (Questionable, Concussion), OT Jordan Mills (Questionable, Ankle), RB LeSean McCoy (Questionable, Ankle), G John Miller (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), WR Andre Holmes (I-R, Neck), RB Travaris Cadet (I-R, Ankle), OT Cordy Glenn (I-R, Foot), DE Shaq Lawson (I-R, Knee), WR Jordan Matthews (I-R, Knee).

    Jaguars - OL Chris Reed (Questionable, Knee), WR Marqise Lee (Questionable, Ankle), RB Chris Ivory (Questionable, Back), DT Abry Jones (Questionable, Back), OL Cam Robinson (Questionable, Abdominal), WR Jaelen Strong (I-R, Knee), WR Arrelious Benn (I-R, Knee), LS Matt Overton (I-R, Shoulder),

    ABOUT THE BILLS (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U):
    McCoy, fourth in the NFL with 1,138 yards rushing, sprained an ankle in last Sunday's regular-season finale and was limited to stretching during Thursday's practice. McCoy also had a team-best 59 receptions and his absence would place a huge burden on quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who is second on the team in rushing and presides over the NFL's 31st-ranked passing attack at 176.6 yards per game. If McCoy can't go, the other options are veteran Mike Tolbert or Marcus Murphy, who had one career rushing attempt prior to gaining 41 yards on seven carries last week. Linebacker Preston Brown made 144 tackles for a defense that ranked 29th against the run (124.6 yards).

    ABOUT THE JAGUARS (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U):
    Jacksonville's success is built on two familiar pillars - a running game led by rookie Leonard Fournette that paced the league at 141.6 yards per game and a ferocious defense that piled up 55 sacks and 21 interceptions while scoring an NFL-leading seven touchdowns. Blake Bortles completed a career-high 60.2 percent of his passes and had a career-low 13 interceptions - five in his last two games - but could get back leading receiver Marqise Lee (ankle). Fournette rushed for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns despite missing three games. Pro Bowler Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue lead the pass rush with 14.5 and 12 sacks, respectively.

    TRENDS:


    * Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

    * Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.* Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 playoff games.

    * Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following a straight up win.

    * Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

    * Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:


    The public is siding with the underdog Bills at a rate of 57 percent and the Under is getting 52 percent of the totals action.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    SUNDAY, JANUARY 7
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    BUF at JAC 01:05 PM
    JAC -8.5
    O 39.5


    CAR at NO 04:40 PM
    NO -6.5
    O 47.5
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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    Jaguars hold off Bills, 'under' cashes
    January 7, 2018


    JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) Blake Bortles never had a game like this.

    Not in college. Not in high school. Not in peewee football. Not even in the backyard against family and friends.

    Bortles put together one decent drive all day, doing as much with his legs as his arm, and the defensive-minded Jacksonville Jaguars eked out an ugly and sometimes unwatchable 10-3 victory against the Buffalo Bills in an AFC wild-card game Sunday.

    Bortles became the second starting quarterback in the past 25 years to win a playoff game with more rushing yards (88) than passing (87). Atlanta's Michael Vick also did it against the St. Louis Rams in the 2004 playoffs.

    ''That's usually not ideal for a quarterback,'' Bortles said.

    It was enough to help the third-seeded Jaguars (11-6) get to the next round against No. 2 seed Pittsburgh.

    The sixth-seeded Bills (9-8) will head home after ending the longest, current playoff drought in North American professional sports.

    ''We had bigger goals,'' Buffalo linebacker Preston Brown said. ''Once we got in the dance, we didn't want to be one and done. We didn't want to treat this like a bowl game, go down to Florida and everybody relaxes. We wanted to move on.

    ''This really stings to lose in this way when you hold them to 10 points. We just didn't find a way to hold them to zero points to win the game.''

    Bortles was a big reason Jacksonville won its first playoff game since January 2008. He was big reason it was so close, too.

    This was far from a passing clinic. It was more like a painful exercise in overcoming poor passing.

    Bortles made up for it with his scrambling ability. He had several long runs, with the highlight coming in the fourth quarter when he fumbled a shotgun snap, picked it up and outran two defenders for an 18-yard gain.

    The play prompted a Bills assistant to slam his clipboard to the ground, which left Bortles smiling as he flipped the ball to an official.

    ''We weren't sharp. We made some bad plays and did some stupid stuff,'' Bortles said. ''But we found a way to win, and that's all that matters.''

    He completed 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards, with a touchdown. His TD pass to backup tight end Ben Koyack late in the third quarter was his best throw of the game. It also was a gutsy call on fourth-and-goal from the 1.

    Bortles did the rest on the ground, picking up first downs and helping Jacksonville win its first playoff game at home since the 1999 season.

    ''He found a way,'' cornerback Aaron Colvin said. ''You've got to find a way. Whatever it takes, we've got to get to these goals we talked about. All this work we put in in the offseason is for moments like this. For him to find a way and do it with his legs, I have the utmost respect for him.''

    The Bills had plenty of chances down the stretch, but a huge penalty against tight end Charles Clay, a dropped pass by Zay Jones and then a tackle that knocked quarterback Tyrod Taylor out of the game ended any threat of a comeback.

    Taylor's helmet slammed hard against the ground after getting thrown down by Dante Fowler Jr. He had to be helped off the field, forcing backup Nathan Peterman into the game with 1:27 remaining.

    All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey tipped and then intercepted Peterman's third pass, and the Jaguars ran out the clock.

    ''I don't care what people call it, we got a playoff win,'' Ramsey said. ''We're going to come to work for another week while other teams are sitting home.''

    YARDAGE NUMBERS

    The Bills finished with 263 yards, 119 of those coming from hobbled running back LeSean McCoy (ankle). The Jags had a measly 230 yards, the team's third-fewest total of the season. Leonard Fournette ran 21 times for 57 yards.

    HUGE SWING

    Trailing 10-3 with about six minutes to play, the Bills looked as if they picked up a first down on an 11-yard pass from Tyrod Taylor to Clay. Jacksonville players standing on the sideline pointed to Clay's feet, and coach Doug Marrone threw the challenge flag. Officials overturned the completion, saying Clay was out of bounds and setting up a third-and-10 play from the Jacksonville 48-yard line. Linebacker Myles Jack sacked Taylor on the next play, forcing a punt.

    INJURIES

    Bills: Safety Micah Hyde left the game in the third quarter and was being evaluated for a concussion. Cornerback Tre'Davious White went to the locker room in the fourth to be treated for cramps. Safety Colt Anderson injured his right shoulder in the fourth trying to make a diving interception.

    Jaguars: Linebacker Paul Posluszny (hip) left, tried to return and then headed to the locker room. He did not return. Receiver/punt returner Jaydon Mickens (hamstring) also left the game.

    UP NEXT

    The Jaguars will play at second-seeded Pittsburgh next Sunday, a rematch from Week 5. Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions, and Jacksonville won 30-9. The Steelers have won 10 of 11 since, the lone loss coming against New England.

    ''I'm sure they're thinking that game was a fluke,'' Ramsey said.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  15. #870
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    Brees, defensive stand, help Saints survive Panthers, 31-26
    January 7, 2018


    NEW ORLEANS (AP) Drew Brees passed for 376 yards and two touchdowns, and the New Orleans Saints held off Carolina's late comeback bid to seal a 31-26 victory in their NFC wild-card game on Sunday.

    The Panthers had a first down on the Saints 26-yard line with 58 seconds left, but heavy pressure by All-Pro defensive end Cameron Jordan a couple plays later induced an intentional grounding penalty on Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, making it third-and-25 on the Saints 34 and a required 10-second runoff left 22 seconds on the clock.

    After an incompletion in the end zone on third down, Vonn Bell sacked Newton on a safety blitz, ensuring the Saints (12-5) swept all three meetings with Carolina (11-6) this season, in addition to winning their first playoff game in four seasons.

    ''We wanted it more,'' Jordan said. ''I mean they've been to their Super Bowl, let `em go to another one next year. We want our run.''

    Brees' touchdowns went for 80-yards to Ted Ginn and 9 yards to tight end Josh Hill. Fullback Zach line and running back Alvin Kamara each ran for short touchdowns, the latter set up by Michael Thomas 46-yard reception.

    Thomas caught eight passes for 131 yards on a day when the Saints needed the passing game to compensate for a ground game that struggled to get going.

    Helped by the presence of tight end Greg Olsen - who did not play in the teams' previous two meetings - Newton marched Carolina into Saints territory more often than not. But the Panthers stalled four times from inside the New Orleans 25, settling for four field goal attempts on those drives, one of which kicker Graham Gano surprisingly missed.

    Olsen had eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. Newton finished 24 of 40 passing for 349 yards and two touchdowns, the other a 56-yard scoring strike to Christian McCaffrey that pulled the Panthers within a touchdown with 4:09 left.

    But Newton was also sacked four times, once each by Bell, Jordan, Jonathan Freeney, and David Onyemata. The sack by Onyemata came as Newton tried to spin away from Tyeler Davison and slammed his head into Onyemata's chest. Newton was checked for a concussion, but missed only one play before returning to the game.

    ''We had to finish out the game and put it on our defense, put it on me, put it on our secondary, our D-line,'' Jordan said. ''I mean, everybody responded the way we were supposed to.''

    Still, the Panthers were in striking distance for the win after a failed gamble by Saints coach Sean Payton, who elected to keep the offense on the field on fourth-and-short with two minutes remaining. He hoped to run out the clock on Carolina, which was out of timeouts. It backfired when Brees' pass as he scrambled to his right was intercepted by Adams, giving Carolina the ball at its 31 with 1:51 to go.

    ''This win is special,'' Jordan said. ''They came back late in the fourth quarter, made this a game.''

    INJURIES

    Panthers: Newton missed one play - a failed third-and-long - while being evaluated for a concussion after Onyemata's sack. Cornerback Daryl Worley briefly was placed in the concussion protocol but also cleared to return during the game.

    Saints: Starting left guard Andrus Peat was carted off the field with a left shin injury. His replacement, Senio Kelemete, later needed help off the field for an undisclosed injury.

    UP NEXT

    Panthers: Begin their offseason.

    Saints: Move on to play at Minnesota in the NFC Divisional playoffs.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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