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Thread: The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

  1. #916
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    AFC Notes - Jags at Pats
    January 14, 2018


    The New England Patriots have had plenty of challengers to their throne over the course of the last several seasons, but most comers end up bowing out gracelessly.

    The AFC South had been dominated by the Colts and Texans over the course of the last decade, and that left the Titans and Jaguars out of the playoffs most seasons. Tennessee made a big stink about the fact that New England didn't know anything about it. The results, though, were exactly the same.

    Will the Jacksonville Jaguars have a different fate when they pay their first visit to Foxboro in the playoffs since the Patriots were nearly perfect in the '07 season?

    No Luck in New England

    Last week, the Jaguars had a lot of confidence against the Steelers after pounding them into submission back in Week 5. They have had a great history in Pittsburgh and walked out of Heinz Field with yet another victory.

    Gillette Stadium, though, is a totally different animal. The Jaguars have never won in this building, and in fact, they're only 1-10 all-time against the Patriots regardless of the venue.

    Super Bowl Shufflin'


    The Robert Kraft/Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots have a history of beating the snot out of teams that aren't ready for this moment. Already this season, we've seen New England dismiss Marcus Mariota in his first season in the playoffs, and now, it can do the same to Blake Bortles this week.

    There is only one man who has beaten the Patriots in their history in the playoffs while playing in his first ever postseason, and you have to go back to 1985 to find him. The Super Bowl Shufflin' Chicago Bears were led by a first-time playoff quarterback in Jim McMahon, and he's the only man to beat the Pats while playing in his first year in the postseason.

    All Over the Under

    The playoff history between these two teams has been an interesting one. The Jaguars actually have a win over the Pats in the second season, but you've got to go back to the Drew Bledsoe days to find that win in 1999. This is going to be the fifth all-time meeting of these teams in the playoffs, a stunningly high number of meetings considering the fact that the Jaguars have only been around for two and a half decades.

    The common thread in these games is the under. All four postseason duels between these two sides failed to reach the total, and three of the four games didn't get beyond 35 points.

    Do You Believe in Miracles?

    Coming into this season, the AFC had never had a team win three games or fewer the previous season and reach the AFC Championship Game the next year.

    No more.

    The Jags are the second team since the merger to reach a conference championship game after winning three games or fewer the year prior. The only other team to do so was the 2006 New Orleans Saints who, of course, went on to win the Super Bowl.

    Jaguars vs. Patriots Playoff History
    2008 (at New England): Patriots 31, Jaguars 20 (Jaguars +13.5 / Under 51.5)
    2006 (at New England): Patriots 28, Jaguars 3 (Patriots -7.5 / Under 37.5)
    1999 (at Jacksonville): Jaguars 25, Patriots 10 (Jaguars -8.5 / Under 41)
    1997 (at New England): Patriots 20, Jaguars 6 (Patriots -6.5 / Under 44)

    Jaguars vs. Patriots Opening NFL Odds
    Jaguars at Patriots (-8, 47)
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  2. #917
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    Championship Notes
    January 14, 2018


    AFC Championship - History

    Jacksonville at New England (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

    Jacksonville Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U
    New England Home Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U


    Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas Super Book sent out New England as an eight-point home favorite over Jacksonville and the number quickly jumped to -9. BookMaker.eu, a major offshore betting outfit, opened the Patriots -8 and that number has held steady but they adjusted to -8 (-115) within 30 minutes of posting. As of Sunday night, consensus is New England -9 and 5Dimes.eu is dangling Patriots -10 (+115) for the daring bettors.

    The SuperBook sent out a total of 45 and that was pushed up quickly to 46 . BookMaker.eu opened 46 and its already up to 47. As of 9:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, you can get as low as 46 at a handful of outfits and as high as 27 at the Wynn Las Vegas.

    Head-to-Head: Since Jacksonville joined the NFL in the 1995 season as an expansion team, these two teams have met 11 times. New England has gone 10-1 straight up and 7-4 against the spread in those contests.

    The most recent matchup took place in the 2015 regular season and New England blasted Jacksonville 51-17 as a 13 -point home favorite. Including this win, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has gone 5-0 as a starter in his career against Jacksonville while the team has averaged 32 points per game.

    Betcha Didn’t Know: New England has won 19 straight games (13-6 ATS) against opponents from the AFC South, which includes last Saturday’s Divisional Playoff 35-14 win over Tennessee. The ‘over’ has gone 14-5. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has dropped its last seven road encounters against opponents from the AFC East.

    Playoff Notes: Including last Saturday’s win over Tennessee, the Patriots improved to 26-9 in the playoffs under head coach Bill Belichick. At Foxboro, the team has gone 18-3 SU and 12-8-1 ATS. The most recent home loss for New England came in the 2012-13 AFC Championship when Baltimore surprised the Patriots 28-13 as eight-point road underdogs. Since that setback New England has gone 2-2 in the AFC Championship game and they own a 9-4 overall record in the conference title game.

    Including the two wins this season, Jacksonville owns a 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS all-time record in the playoffs. The Jaguars have played in the AFC title game twice and they came up short in both games.

    These teams have met four times in the postseason, the last encounter taking place in the 2007-08 playoffs when the Patriots captured a 31-20 win at home but they failed to cover as 13 -point home favorites. Overall, New England is 3-1 versus Jacksonville in the postseason and the home team has won all four games while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark.

    Total Notes: The Patriots have watched the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season but the ‘over’ has posted a 6-3 mark in games played at Foxboro. Jacksonville has seen its totals produced a stalemate (9-9) through 18 games, which includes a 5-4 ‘under’ mark on the road. The Jaguars have watched the ‘over’ go 8-5 all-time in their 13 playoff games.

    The highest total Jacksonville has seen in a game this season was 43, which occurred in Week 16 when it visited San Francisco. The ‘over’ easily hit as the 49ers and former New England QB Jimmy Garoppolo diced up the Jaguars 44-33 at home.

    NFC Championship – History

    Minnesota at Philadelphia (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

    Minnesota Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U
    Philadelphia Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U


    Line Movements: The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook opened Minnesota as a three-point favorite (-120) but they removed the added juice and went to 3 (EVEN) within the first hour. 5Dimes.eu started with Vikings -3.5 and have dropped to -3 (-120).

    The SuperBook made a mistake with the total, sending out 40 and they adjusted quickly. Most shops are holding between 38 and 38 points while Pinnacle is as low as 37 (-115) as of Sunday night.

    Head-to-Head: Philadelphia defeated Minnesota 21-10 in the 2016 regular season as a three-point home underdog. Prior to that matchup, the Vikings had won and covered the previous two meetings. Since 1992, the teams have met 10 times and Philadelphia is 7-3 overall while the total holds a 5-5 mark.

    The Vikings defeated the Redskins 38-30 in Week 10, which snapped a three-game losing skid to opponents from the NFC East. Philadelphia has gone 4-1 at home in its last five games against NFC North foes, which includes the recent meeting between the pair in 2016.

    Betcha Didn’t Know: Since the 1997-98 postseason, the NFC Championship has seen the road team favored four times and the visitor has gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in that role. The last team to win as a road favorite was San Francisco (-3.5) in the 2012-13 playoff when it rallied past Atlanta 28-24 in the Georgia Dome.

    Playoff Notes: Minnesota’s wild 29-24 win over New Orleans in the Divisional Round was its first playoff victory since 2010. The Vikings haven’t captured a win on the road in the postseason since 2005, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three.

    The Divisional round win on Saturday over Atlanta also snapped a playoff drought for Philadelphia. The Eagles were 0-4 in their previous four playoff games and two of those losses came at home.

    The Vikings and Eagles have met twice in the playoffs and Philadelphia won and covered both of those games, 27-14 at home in 2005 and 26-14 at the Metrodome in 2009. The ‘under’ cashed in both games.

    Total Notes: Minnesota saw its total results (4-4) break even on the road in the regular season while Philadelphia watched the ‘under’ cash in six of nine home games. Only three of nine opponents were able to score 20-plus points on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Minnesota led the league in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) but the home numbers (12.5 PPG) were much better than the road production (19 PPG). The Eagles have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last three playoff games. Two of the last three in the postseason for Minnesota have gone to the low side.

    The Vikings had three totals in the regular season close in the thirties and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. This total will be the lowest number that Philadelphia has seen all season, as it enters this game on a 3-0 ‘under’ run.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  3. #918
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    Vegas Books win DP Round
    January 14, 2018


    The NFL Divisional Playoff round was a roller coaster of thrills and emotions for bettors at Las Vegas sports books with two underdogs winning outright, the massive favorite covering and the finale on Sunday night landing on the number due to a set of unusual but fantastic circumstances.

    We all witnessed a fantastic piece of NFL history with the Vikings improbable 29-24 win against the Saints at U.S. Bank Stadium, and for those in Las Vegas the final tally came down to the Vikings (-5) decision to forego the extra-point following Stephon Diggs 61-yard walk-off touchdown reception as time expired.

    It was a huge extra-point in town. Books like CG Technology, Wynn Resorts, William Hill and Stratosphere all closed the Vikings -5. Others like the Westgate SuperBook, Boyd Gaming, Station Casinos and MGM Resorts all closed at -5.5.

    "It would have been better if they kicked the extra point," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood shortly after the Vikings took a knee after the game winning TD. "The whole game was Vikings and Under and the way it turned was almost a seven-figure swing.

    "We went from winning a little, to losing a lot (with Saints winning), to losing a little on the game," Rood said. "And for the weekend we went from winning a lot to just having a decent weekend."

    Rood said his 10 MGM Resorts books went to -5.5 on Saturday a few days after sharps had played the Vikings at -3.5 and -4 earlier in the week. The total also rose from 45 to 47.5 by kickoff.

    The conversion attempt downed cost everyone in town to some degree. Usually, the numbers -5 and -5.5 are considered dead numbers by bookmakers, but both were alive and kicking Sunday night.

    "The turnaround with no extra-point cost us around $200,000," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, who noted the weekend was still went well with the Eagles and Jaguars wins.

    "No extra-point hurt," said William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogadanovich. "But still, it was a great weekend. The two games we won with (Eagles and Jaguars) were big, but we lost with the Patriots and Saints games."

    Up north in Reno, results were similar.

    "Saturday was a good double-digit win percentage," said Atlantis sports book director Marc Nelson. "Sunday was okay and the no extra-point was a killer. We were (Vikings) -5 since Tuesday, never moved. Still, a winner for the day and weekend overall."

    The good weekend continued a great NFL Playoffs for the sports books, a major turnaround from a disastrous 2016 NFL Playoffs when favorites went 9-2 against the spread. Through two weekends, the favorites are now 1-7 ATS with four of the underdogs winning outright.

    "It was an excellent start with the Eagles win," Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said Saturday night. "It was a solid Saturday, but lots of Patriots and Over liability rolls forward into Sunday."

    William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada had 55 percent of its cash in Saturday's early game laying the points with the Falcons, yet they dropped the number from -3 to -2.5 showing they had respected money on the Eagles. It also stayed in line with a market move several books had made. The Eagles hung on for the 15-10 win.

    In Saturday's late game, there weren't many believers in the Titans with 83 percent of William Hill's betting public laying -13.5 and -14 with Patriots. The Titans scored the first and last TD of the game, but gave up five TDs in between in a 35-14 Patriots win. The Titans late TD may have seemed meaningless, but it sent the game Over 48 much to the delight of most bettors.

    The rollover into Sunday quickly turned the books way when the Jaguars (+7) jumped out to a 21-0 lead at Pittsburgh and held on for a 45-42 win going way Over the total of 41 points. The Golden Nugget, Boyd Gaming and Westgate all closed a city-high +280 on the money-line. MGM's Rood said sharps were on Jaguars early in the week at +7.5 which kept him at Steelers -7 during the busy wagering period over the weekend.

    The Conference Championship games take place Sunday with the Patriots -9 at home against the Jaguars with Wynn's John Avello not wasting any time going to -9.5 on Sunday. Others are certain to be there as well, and likely higher.

    "Slow, but steady Patriots action since we posted the game," said Rood. "I think it'll be -9.5 or -10 soon; tickets are already being bet at a 3-to-1 ratio."

    Sunday's late game in the NFC didn't take long to move. The Vikings opened as three-point road favorites at Philadelphia and it's been bet up to -3.5 with a total at 38 and 38.5. Despite the Eagles impressive home win against the Falcons as a three-point home dog where QB Nick Foles played well, Philly is being doubted again by oddsmakers.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  4. #919
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    NFC Notes - Vikings at Eagles
    January 15, 2018


    The Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles were both faced with some major adversity in the late stages of their Divisional Round playoff games. Like true winners, they were able to fight through their opposition and win their games by a matter of inches on both accounts to get into the NFC Championship Game.

    Now, Case Keenum and Nick Foles make one of the most improbable quarterback battles in a conference championship game in NFL history.

    The Wide-Open NFC

    Since 2003, there are only four teams who have hosted the AFC Championship Game. The NFC? Definitely far from that boring.

    Since 1991, 14 of the 16 teams in the NFC have played in the Super Bowl. The only ones that haven't? The Lions and the Vikings.

    What better way to finally crash into the Super Bowl for the first time in over four decades than to do so when the game is in your own stadium? The Vikings would become the first team in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl in its home stadium.

    Flying Away from Minnesota

    The Eagles don't exactly have the greatest playoff history in the world, but one team they have historically done very well against in the postseason is Minnesota. These two teams have met three times in the playoffs, most recently in 2009. The Eagles are 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in those three games, winning all three by double-digits.

    This is going to be the first time that the Eagles have played against Minnesota at home since the '05 playoffs, a game that was won 27-14.

    The Vikings, meanwhile, haven't had any luck playing outdoors in the playoffs in recent history. They haven't won an outdoor playoff game since the '04 playoffs in Green Bay, going 0-3 since that point.

    The New Kids on the Block

    Keenum has only made one playoff spot in his career, and all he did in that one game was hit Stefon Diggs for a 61-yard touchdown on the final play of the game to pull off an improbable comeback.

    Keenum will be remembered most for his relatively lucky touchdown pass to Diggs, but let's remember when he left the field 1:34 left in the game, and had the Vikings ahead 23-21. Effectively, he had to win that game twice.

    Foles has started in two playoff games in his career. He was beaten in his first playoff game when he was Chip Kelly's hand-chosen quarterback for his offense. But here under Doug Pederson, Foles was fantastic, going 23-for-30 for 246 yards against the Falcons.

    These two men are both playing in the biggest games of their career on Sunday, and it's shocking to believe that one of the two will be in the Super Bowl in a couple weeks.

    Barking at Home

    Philadelphia is the 15th home underdog in a conference championship game in NFL history. The Eagles don't exactly have history on their side, knowing that home underdogs are just 6-8 SU and 6-7-1 ATS in the 14 previous examples.

    That said, the last time a No. 1 seed was a dog at home in a conference championship game, the Broncos, who were also +3, beat the Patriots 20-18 at Mile High in the 2016 AFC Championship Game.

    Vikings vs. Eagles Playoff History

    2009 (at Minnesota): Eagles 26, Vikings 14 (Eagles -3.5 / Under 41)
    2005 (at Philadelphia): Eagles 27, Vikings 14 (Eagles -7.5 / Under 47)
    1981 (at Philadelphia): Eagles 31, Vikings 16 (No Line)

    Vikings vs. Eagles Opening NFL Odds
    Vikings at Eagles (+3, 38.5)
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  5. #920
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    AFC Notes - Jags at Pats
    January 14, 2018


    The New England Patriots have had plenty of challengers to their throne over the course of the last several seasons, but most comers end up bowing out gracelessly.

    The AFC South had been dominated by the Colts and Texans over the course of the last decade, and that left the Titans and Jaguars out of the playoffs most seasons. Tennessee made a big stink about the fact that New England didn't know anything about it. The results, though, were exactly the same.

    Will the Jacksonville Jaguars have a different fate when they pay their first visit to Foxboro in the playoffs since the Patriots were nearly perfect in the '07 season?

    No Luck in New England

    Last week, the Jaguars had a lot of confidence against the Steelers after pounding them into submission back in Week 5. They have had a great history in Pittsburgh and walked out of Heinz Field with yet another victory.

    Gillette Stadium, though, is a totally different animal. The Jaguars have never won in this building, and in fact, they're only 1-10 all-time against the Patriots regardless of the venue.

    Super Bowl Shufflin'

    The Robert Kraft/Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots have a history of beating the snot out of teams that aren't ready for this moment. Already this season, we've seen New England dismiss Marcus Mariota in his first season in the playoffs, and now, it can do the same to Blake Bortles this week.

    There is only one man who has beaten the Patriots in their history in the playoffs while playing in his first ever postseason, and you have to go back to 1985 to find him. The Super Bowl Shufflin' Chicago Bears were led by a first-time playoff quarterback in Jim McMahon, and he's the only man to beat the Pats while playing in his first year in the postseason.

    All Over the Under

    The playoff history between these two teams has been an interesting one. The Jaguars actually have a win over the Pats in the second season, but you've got to go back to the Drew Bledsoe days to find that win in 1999. This is going to be the fifth all-time meeting of these teams in the playoffs, a stunningly high number of meetings considering the fact that the Jaguars have only been around for two and a half decades.

    The common thread in these games is the under. All four postseason duels between these two sides failed to reach the total, and three of the four games didn't get beyond 35 points.

    Do You Believe in Miracles?

    Coming into this season, the AFC had never had a team win three games or fewer the previous season and reach the AFC Championship Game the next year.

    No more.

    The Jags are the second team since the merger to reach a conference championship game after winning three games or fewer the year prior. The only other team to do so was the 2006 New Orleans Saints who, of course, went on to win the Super Bowl.

    Jaguars vs. Patriots Playoff History

    2008 (at New England): Patriots 31, Jaguars 20 (Jaguars +13.5 / Under 51.5)
    2006 (at New England): Patriots 28, Jaguars 3 (Patriots -7.5 / Under 37.5)
    1999 (at Jacksonville): Jaguars 25, Patriots 10 (Jaguars -8.5 / Under 41)
    1997 (at New England): Patriots 20, Jaguars 6 (Patriots -6.5 / Under 44)

    Jaguars vs. Patriots Opening NFL Odds
    Jaguars at Patriots (-8, 47)
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  6. #921
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    Brady on trash talk: 'It's how you play, not what you say'
    January 16, 2018


    Tom Brady is not interested in traveling the same verbal path as Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

    The New England Patriots quarterback kept the brash talk to a minimum on Tuesday, one day after Ramsey was "predicting" a Super Bowl win for the Jaguars.

    "It's how you play, not what you say," Brady said on WEEI's Kirk and Callahan show.

    Brady, whose Patriots host the upstart Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday (3:05 p.m. ET), was complimentary of Jacksonville's stifling defense. After all, the Jaguars own the NFL's top-ranked pass defense (170 yards per game average), No. 2 scoring defense (16.8) and are second in the league in yards permitted per game (286.1).

    "There is not a lot of time for the quarterback to throw," said Brady, who has five Super Bowl rings. "I think the whole secondary knows it. The linebackers know it. They're aggressive. They take chances. They get a lot of turnovers ... (QB) is under pressure all day."

    Ramsey, who is a first-team All-Pro, was feeling quite boastful after the Jaguars posted a 45-42 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Sunday's divisional round game.

    "I ain't got too much to say, but y'all make sure you bring that same energy out here next week and the week after," Ramsey said to fans at a rally at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. "We're going to the Super Bowl and we're going to win that (expletive)."

    Ramsey is no stranger to trash talking, with his on-the-field barbs reportedly getting under the skin of Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green earlier this season. The two ended up exchanging punches and were thrown out of their contest on Nov. 5.

    Jaguars coach Doug Marrone downplayed Ramsey's most recent comment, saying it was intended to fire up his team and not the opponent.

    "You come back, and you've got all the fans here and things of that nature," Marrone said Monday. "Obviously that is something that everybody wants to do when you get this close. Whether they have to say it or not, the one thing they do know is the road to it always leads through New England, so our focus isn't on anything else but the New England Patriots. That's exactly what our whole team will be focused on.

    "It will be a great challenge for us obviously, and we're going to have to have a great week."
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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