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Thread: Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/12

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2004

    Default Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/12

    Trends and Indexes

    Wednesday, July 12

    Good Luck on day #192 of 2016!

    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    Armadillo:Wednesday's six-pack

    — Monday nite, they had 10,000 fans in Sacramento’s arena for a watch party for the Kings-Lakers summer league game in Las Vegas.

    — Miami traded Josh McRoberts for AJ Hammons, and threw in $5.1M to persuade Dallas to do the deal, which is more than the difference in the two players’ salaries.

    — Former major league pitcher Livan Hernandez earned at least $53M in his 17-year major league playing career; he declared for bankruptcy last week. Oy.

    — I am told betting line moved from Lakers -1.5 to +6 once Lonzo Ball was declared out for Monday night’s Lakers-Suns summer league game. Lakers won by 3.

    — Why would I go to Burger King and buy hot dogs? Why?

    — Portland Trailblazers’ Pat Connaughton might play baseball instead of hoop; his agent is Jeff Samardzija’s brother. Samardzija was also a two-sport star.


    Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

    13) Giancarlo Stanton is my favorite active baseball player; he’s been on my fantasy team since he was an 18-year old in the Florida State League. But very little makes me happier than seeing him lose in Home Run Derby— the thought of him hurting his wrist or pulling an intercostal or oblique during this stupid exhibition makes me queasy. I don’t like to be queasy.

    12) Was nice of FXM to show Moneyball opposite the Home Run Derby, so I could watch that fine film one more time. Too bad the A’s always lose at the end of the movie.

    11) This from Bobby Marks on Twitter: “Tim Hardaway Jr. was traded for Jerian Grant who was traded for Derrick Rose who was renounced so NYK could sign Hardaway Jr. for $71M.”

    How did people this incompetent get wealthy enough to own/run an NBA franchise?

    10) Hector Cruz brought his cellphone to the plate in the top of the 6th inning of the All-Star Game and had Yadier Molina take a pic of him and ump Joe West at the plate. Cruz then hit with the phone in his back pocket. He flew out to center— good thing he didn’t have to slide.

    9) New Jersey governor Chris Christie is done as governor in December (term limits); he tried out as a talk radio host on WFAN Monday. Reviews were mixed.

    Christie is incredibly unpopular in New Jersey, but he is a good talker and he knows his sports. Controversy sells these days; someone will give him a talk radio gig.

    8) San Jose State basketball coach Dave Wojcik unexpectedly resigned Tuesday; Spartans were 14-16 LY, an improvement over Wojcik’s first three seasons in San Jose. Personal issues were the reason given; hopefully his health is OK.

    Coach Wojcik’s son Jake is a senior-to-be at Bellarmine Prep in California. He is committed to Siena for his college, but it is unknown if this move effects Jake’s commitment to the Saints.

    7) One of my favorite new phrases: when someone is “getting salty” about something. When I watch HBO’s Hard Knocks from last summer, I get salty because the Rams just didn’t care about offense as much as an NFL team should. Offense is important.

    6) Mike Trout will be back in the Angels’ lineup Friday night, good news for the 45-47 Halos, who are only three games out of the AL Wild Card spots.

    5) Notre Dame hasn’t finished a football season with a positive turnover ratio since 2012; the last three years, they’ve been -4/-6/-3 in turnovers. Hard to win that way.

    4) Jon Lester allowed 10 runs in two-thirds on an inning Sunday; he threw 53 pitches and did not finish the first inning. Francisco Cervelli became the 4th player in the last 100 years to hit a first inning grand slam while batting #2 in the lineup (think about it).

    3) You don’t think sports are big business? The D-League is now the G-League. Why?

    Because Gatorade now sponsors the league, therefore the G.

    2) NBA Summer League is not only a tryout for players trying to make the bigtime, it is for referees, too. Guys from all over the world are in Las Vegas this week, including three officials from China. Before and after games, players/refs go thru film sessions and/or workouts, trying to get better at their craft, whether it be playing or being a ref.

    1) Its funny; RC Buford is the GM of the San Antonio Spurs, one of the most successful teams in NBA history, but they showed him on ESPN just now and I had no idea who he was. Know the name, obviously, but not the face. This is a guy who does a great job and keeps out of the spotlight. We need more people like that.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2004


    How often do the best teams at the MLB All-Star break win the World Series?

    The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the two best teams in baseball at the All-Star break, but will either club play in World Series?

    Oddsmakers see this as the most likely Fall Classic matchup, priced at +750 to clash in the World Series, with the Dodgers (+400 to win) and Astros (+450) at the top the futures book. It got us wondering, how often the best teams at the break end up representing their respective leagues in the World Series?

    Looking back over the last 15 years, we found the National League teams with the best record won the pennant just once (6.66 percent win rate). The American League, on the other hand, sent its best team from the break to the World Series four times over the last 15 years.

    The average winning percentage at the break from AL World Series representatives is .587 while the NL is at .550.

    Speaking about winning percentages, this year’s Dodgers and Astros own the two highest win percentages (.678, .674) at the break over the last 16 seasons. Only one other team ever cracked .670 at the midseason mark in the sample size (Detroit Tigers 2007).

    We also wanted to know what the average price at the All-Star break was for the teams who ended up winning the World Series.

    The average preseason price on the eventual World Series champion sits at +2,070 and the average price at the All-Star break is about +1,332. Only one of the last nine MLB champions had the best record in its league at the break (2013 Red Sox).

    The 2016 Chicago Cubs became just the fifth team since 1995 to finish with the best regular season record and win the World Series.

    So, if you think either the Astros or Dodgers are going to win the World Series this year, it might make sense to wait for either club to cool off a bit before placing your futures bet. It wouldn’t hurt either to examine a few other teams above .500 but playing below their full potential.

    Remember, four of the last eight World Series champions were priced at 10/1 or better on September 1. The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals were 999/1 to win the World Series at MGM Resorts sportsbooks in Las Vegas on September 12 when they were 4.5 games out of playoff position. One lucky bettor grabbed them and won over $375,000 on two separate bets.



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