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  1. #1
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    Default Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/11

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, July 11

    Good Luck on day #191 of 2016!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo:Tuesday's six-pack

    Odds to win next week’s British Open:

    10-1— Dustin Johnson

    12-1— Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm

    15-1— Sergio Garcia, Ricky Fowler

    20-1— Day, Matsuyama, Fleetwood, Rose

    25-1— Henrik Stenson

    30-1— Adam Scott


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Looking at NL teams at the All-Star break……….

    61-29 Dodgers— Are 39-11 at home, 13-0 in Kershaw’s last 13 starts. Wood is 10-0, 1.67 with a WHIP of 0.89. #5 hitters are batting .204 against them, #6 hitters .206.

    53-36 Arizona— Stumbled into All-Star break on 3-7 skid; they’re 33-15 at home, with a home OPS of .840- their road OPS is .689. Goldschmidt has 20 HR’s, 67 RBI, an OB% of .428.

    52-36 Washington— Bullpen has been awful, but they’ve got a 9.5-game lead in a bad division- they figure to add to their bullpen before July 31. Hitting .293 at home, .261 on road. Murphy is hitting .342, Zimmerman .330, Harper .325.

    52-39 Colorado— Four rookies in the starting rotation is a red flag heading into second half of season. Rockies are 5-13 in their last 18 games. SS Story has an OPS of only .699, after his .908 in his rookie year LY.

    50-41 Milwaukee— Have stunning 5.5-game lead in NL Central; their best pitcher Anderson is out for another month (oblique). Brewers have been in playoffs twice in last 35 years (’08, ’11). Thames has 23 HR’s after spending last three years playing in Korea.

    43-45 Chicago— Weird that only five NL teams are over .500. Defending World Champs have struggled all year; Lester’s ERA is 4.25, Arrieta’s 4.35. LF’s are hitting combined .217; leadoff hitters have a combined OB% of .323.

    43-45 St Louis— 18-7 vs NL East, 25-38 elsewhere. #3 hitters are batting a combined .221 with an OPS of .712. Wainwright has slipped; his ERA is 5.20, WHIP 1.49. SS Diaz hit .300 LY; he is in AAA now, after hitting only .260 this year.

    42-45 Atlanta— Surprisingly good record for this group; they’re 20-16 since June 1. Signing Matt Adams got them thru Freeman’s injury; now Freeman plays 3B so Adams can stay in lineup. Have 13 HR, 51 RBI out of catching combo; solid production.

    42-47 Pittsburgh— Get Marte back from 80-game suspension next week. Leadoff hitters have only a .305 OB%. McCutchen has surged since they moved him to #6 in order, now he is back in 3-hole- he is hitting .294 with 50 RBI for season.

    41-46 Miami— Sadly, a fire sale is coming after All-Star break; their payroll is unwieldy for team that is about to be sold. Have formidable lineup; they hit .283 on road, .251 at home. Injury to lefty starter Chen has hurt the pitching rotation.

    39-47 New York— How does their trainer still have a job? Mets are racked by injuries every year. Have OPS of .699 at home, .826 on road. #2 hitters are batting .219, #9 hitters .218, which isn’t good for an NL team. Harvey has a 5.25 ERA, Syndergaard has thrown only 27.1 innings.

    39-49 Cincinnati— Have 63 homers on road, 62 at home, despite small home park. Pitchers have 4.67 ERA at home, 5.45 on road. Billy Hamilton may be fast, but a .293 OB% at leadoff ain’t good enough.

    38-50 San Diego— Have three Rule 5 (minor league) players on roster this year; hard to win that way. Padre 3B’s are hitting .196, catchers .210; need more production. Young starter Lamet has 55 strikeouts in 41 IP, looks like a future star.

    34-56 San Francisco— When your team gets old, the bottom falls out quickly. Pitchers have 5.49 ERA on road; top 4 spots in opposing batting order all bat .300+ with .370+ OB% vs Giants. Posey is hitting .324 with .406 OB%; will they move him to 1B to preserve rest of his career?

    29-58 Phillies— 23 of 58 losses are by one run; they’ve started to bring prospects up. Could be good fairly soon, but need another starting pitcher or two. Nola-Hellickson-Pivetta look like a good start for a solid rotation. Their AAA team is winning a ton of games; there is talent there.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-11-2017 at 01:37 PM.

  3. #3
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    MLB Midseason Award Odds

    The All-Star break is here in Major League Baseball as the Astros and Dodgers are the first teams to reach the 60-win mark. From an individual standpoint, several sluggers and hurlers have stood out and the odds have been adjusted for the Most Valuable Player Award, Cy Young Award, and who will hit the most home runs.

    Starting with the long ball, Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge leads the Majors with 30 home runs, followed by Astros’ outfielder George Springer’s 27 homers. Judge is the favorite to capture the home run title at BetOnline.ag at 13/10 odds (Bet $100 to win $130), while Springer is right behind at 7/2 (Bet $100 to win $350). In the National League, Reds’ first baseman Joey Votto has knocked out a league-best 26 home runs, but is listed at 8/1 odds to win the home run crown. Votto has hit more than 30 homers only once in his career, going deep 37 times back in 2010.

    Judge is the front-runner to grab the American League MVP at 2/7 odds (Bet $350 to win $100) as he ranks in the top three in batting average, home runs, and runs batted in inside the AL. The three-headed monster of Astros’ stars are right behind Judge as Springer, Carlos Correa, and Jose Altuve all have odds of 8/1 or better to bring the first MVP to Houston since Jeff Bagwell in 1994.

    In the National League, D-backs’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is the favorite at 3/2 odds. Goldschmidt has been consistent across the board in most offensive categories, including ranking first in the NL in runs scored, fourth in RBI, and third in OPS. No D-back has ever won the MVP award, but 2015 winner Bryce Harper is lurking behind Goldschmidt at 9/2 odds, as the Nationals’ right fielder ranks in the top 10 in the NL in slugging, OPS, batting average, runs, home runs, and RBI.

    On the mound, Chris Sale is on the verge of hoisting his first Cy Young honor as the Red Sox southpaw has struck out a league-high 178 batters, while winning 11 games through the first half. Sale is the runaway favorite at 2/5 odds (Bet $250 to win $100), followed by Houston’s Dallas Keuchel (11/2), who has been sidelined since June 2 with a neck injury.

    Clayton Kershaw is closing in on his fourth Cy Young Award since 2011 as the Dodgers’ ace is the clear favorite at 5/8 odds. Kershaw sits in first in wins with 14 and inning pitched to lead the National League and second in strikeouts and ERA. Kershaw’s teammate Alex Wood is a surprise name in the Cy Young race with a 10-0 record and miniscule ERA of 1.67. Wood (9/2) sits behind last season’s Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, as the Nationals’ ace leads the NL in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP, while being listed at 13/10 odds to grab the honor.

    2017 MLB Home Run Leader
    Aaron Judge (NYY) 13/10
    George Springer (HOU) 7/2
    Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) 5/1
    Joey Votto (CIN) 8/1
    Cody Bellinger (LAD) 9/1
    Khris Davis (OAK) 10/1
    Logan Morrison (TB) 11/1
    Mike Moustakas (KC) 12/1
    Bryce Harper (WSH) 14/1
    Eric Thames (MIL) 18/1
    Marcell Ozuna (MIA) 20/1
    Justin Smoak (TOR) 20/1
    Mike Trout (LAA) 33/1
    Miguel Sano (MIN) 33/1
    Anthony Rizzo (CHC) 33/1
    Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) 33/1
    Jay Bruce (NYM) 33/1
    Mark Reynolds (COL) 33/1
    Kris Bryant (CHC) 40/1
    Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) 40/1
    Joey Gallo (TEX) 40/1
    Scott Schebler (CIN) 40/1
    Jake Lamb (ARI) 40/1
    Nolan Arenado (COL) 50/1
    Chris Davis (BAL) 50/1
    Ryan Zimmerman (WSH) 50/1
    Adam Duvall (CIN) 50/1
    Justin Bour (MIA) 50/1
    Corey Dickerson (TB) 66/1
    Nelson Cruz (SEA) 66/1
    Manny Machado (BAL) 80/1
    Yonder Alonso (OAK) 100/1
    Charlie Blackmon (COL) 100/1
    Michael Conforto (NYM) 200/1
    Jose Bautista (TOR) 250/1

    Most Valuable Player - AL Odds
    Aaron Judge (NYY) 2/7
    Carlos Correa (HOU) 7/1
    Jose Altuve (HOU) 7/1
    George Springer (HOU) 8/1
    Mike Trout (LAA) 10/1
    Mookie Betts (BOS) 10/1
    Corey Dickerson (TB) 20/1
    Jose Ramirez (CLE) 20/1
    Miguel Sano (MIN) 66/1
    Francisco Lindor (CLE) 80/1

    Most Valuable Player - NL Odds
    Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) 3/2
    Bryce Harper (WSH) 9/2
    Nolan Arenado (COL) 7/1
    Corey Seager (LAD) 8/1
    Justin Turner (LAD) 9/1
    Charlie Blackmon (COL) 10/1
    Cody Bellinger (LAD) 11/1
    Joey Votto (CIN) 14/1
    Anthony Rizzo (CHC) 20/1
    Kris Bryant (CHC) 20/1
    Anthony Rendon (WSH) 20/1
    Ryan Zimmerman (WSH) 20/1
    Daniel Murphy (WSH) 40/1
    Buster Posey (SF) 100/1
    Zack Cosart (CIN) 100/1

    Cy Young Award - AL Odds
    Chris Sale (BOS) 2/5
    Dallas Keuchel (HOU) 11/2
    Corey Kluber (CLE) 8/1
    Jason Vargas (KC) 12/1
    Lance McCullers (HOU) 14/1
    Craig Kimbrel (BOS) 20/1
    Carlos Carrasco (CLE) 25/1
    Luis Severino (NYY) 25/1
    James Paxton (SEA) 33/1
    Ervin Santana (MIN) 33/1
    Yu Darvish (TEX) 40/1
    Michael Fulmer (DET) 50/1
    Chris Archer (TB) 50/1
    Marcus Stroman (TOR) 66/1
    Michael Pineda (NYY) 100/1
    Justin Verlander (DET) 200/1

    Cy Young Award - NL Odds
    Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 5/8
    Max Scherzer (WSH) 13/10
    Alex Wood (LAD) 9/2
    Zack Greinke (ARI) 25/1
    Stephen Strasburg (WSH) 25/1
    Robbie Ray (ARI) 33/1
    Jacob deGrom (NYM) 40/1
    Carlos Martinez (STL) 50/1
    Ivan Nova (PIT) 66/1
    Jon Lester (CHC) 66/1
    Lance Lynn (STL) 100/1
    Mike Leake (STL) 150/1
    Gerrit Cole (PIT) 200/1
    Jake Arrieta (CHC) 200/1
    Johnny Cueto (SF) 200/1
    Antonio Senzatela (COL) 200/1

  4. #4
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    All-Star Game features plenty of glitz

    MIAMI -- Call this the Glamour Game.

    Just minutes from glitzy South Beach, most of baseball's biggest names will gather at Marlins Park on Tuesday night for the 88th annual All-Star Game. It's the first All-Star Game ever in Florida.

    The starting pitchers were announced on Monday: Boston Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale (11-4, 2.75 ERA, 178 strikeouts) for the American League, and Washington Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer (10-5, 2.10 ERA, 173 strikeouts) for the National League. They are Nos. 1-2 in the majors in strikeouts.

    Sale, a native Floridian, will have friends and family members at Marlins Park to watch. He is the first American League pitcher to start two consecutive All-Star Games in 34 years.

    "I'm very appreciative," the former Chicago White Sox pitcher said of his sixth All-Star appearance. "A lot of hard work and dedication goes into this. ... This is a fun time. Being in Miami, an hour and 45 minutes from where I live, makes it even better."

    For the NL, Clayton Kershaw (14-2, 2.18 ERA) is unavailable since he pitched on Sunday for the Los Angeles Dodgers. But even if he were eligible, Chicago Cubs and NL manager Joe Maddon said on Monday that Scherzer would have gotten the nod anyway.

    "I have a ton of respect for Mr. Kershaw," Maddon said. "But I broke down the numbers, and I had already chosen Max. Kershaw is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and (Scherzer) probably will be, too. But based on the numbers, I think this is the right way to go."

    If the Sale-Scherzer matchup were not enough glamour for fans, then consider that this could serve as the coming out party on a national stage for rookie stars from two of the sport's marquee franchises: the New York Yankees and the Dodgers.

    We're talking about Yankees powerhouse Aaron Judge, who leads the majors with 30 homers, and Dodgers star Cody Bellinger, who is third in the NL with 25.

    Both of the sluggers are closing in on potential rookie home run records for their respective leagues: 38 by Frank Robinson in the NL in 1956 and 49 by Mark McGwire in 1987 in the AL. Judge has already broken the Yankees rookie record for homers, which had been held by Joe DiMaggio.

    Judge, a right-handed hitter, has the longest homer in baseball this year (495 feet) as well as the quickest exit velocity (121 mph).

    Bellinger, a lefty hitter, started the season in the minors.

    The presence in the All-Star Game of Judge, a massive man at 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds, and the 6-4, 210-pound Bellinger is good news for baseball, especially since Los Angeles Angels slugger Mike Trout will be missing.

    Trout was hurt at Marlins Park, spraining a ligament in his left thumb while sliding into second base on May 28. The Angels star is, by consensus, the best player in the American League, and this would have been his fifth straight All-Star start.

    "I'm honored to be voted in," Trout said in a statement. "I'm grateful that the fans see me as deserving of such an honor."

    With Trout out, there is still the chance to see Nationals slugger Bryce Harper, who was the game's leading overall vote-getter.

    Harper will try to reverse what for his league has been a nasty trend. The AL has a lopsided 16-3-1 advantage over the past 20 years, including a current four-game win streak. The NL leads the all-time series 43-42-2.

    This year's All-Star Game, however, will be the first since it was decided that the winner would no longer receive home-field advantage in that year's World Series.

    Instead, the players are competing for pride ... and money. Each winning player gets $20,000. The losers get nothing.

    As to be expected, baseball's best teams have the most representatives. Case in point: The Houston Astros have three AL starters in the game: shortstop Carlos Correa, second baseman Jose Altuve and outfielder George Springer.

    In the NL, the Nationals also have four starters with Scherzer, Harper, first baseman Ryan Zimmerman and second baseman Daniel Murphy.

    "It's a reflection on how good our team is," Murphy said. "We've played really well this year. ... It's a team honor."

    The host Miami Marlins have two representatives: starting outfielder Marcell Ozuna and designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton.

    Two former Marlins players made the rosters -- Padres reliever Brad Hand and Indians reliever Andrew Miller. And it will be a homecoming for former Miami Hurricanes first baseman Yonder Alonso of the Oakland A's. Not only is this Alonso's first time as an All-Star, but he also gets to appear in his hometown.

    Alonso is one of 23 first-time All-Stars at this year's game.

    Some of the bigger names on the roster include Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg, St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina and San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey.

    So who will win this All-Star Game full of glamour, power, youth and drama?

    One clue could be who is on the field in the last inning. If it is Boston's Craig Kimbrel (1.19 ERA, 23-for-25 on save chances), there is a good chance the American League will continue its recent dominance.

    But if it is the Dodgers' Kenley Jansen (0.93 ERA, 21-for-21 on save chances), there is a strong shot that the National League finally will break through.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-11-2017 at 01:28 PM.

  5. #5
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    MLB All-Star Game Odds and Betting Preview

    The average total of runs scored in the last 11 MLB All-Star games is just 6.5 and the under is 7-2 in the last nine years.

    All-Star Games aren’t as popular as they once were, but the MLB midsummer classic is still the champion of professional sports All-Star showcases.

    It’s the only major sporting contest on the betting board tomorrow (sorry tennis fans). On Wednesday, the gambling community will be scrambling to find a book that’ll allow a parlay on the Connecticut Sun with Simon Biles winning an ESPYs, so let’s treat this matchup with a little respect. Beggars can’t be choosers.

    What bettors need to know

    Location: Miami, Florida
    Expected temperature: Around 85, but it’ll feel more like 89 with the humidity.

    Sports Interaction Odds:
    NL All-Stars -110, AL All-Stars -110. Over/Under 9.

    Line History:
    There hasn't been much line movement for this battle of All-Stars heading into Tuesday. The National League opened as -115 moneyline favorites and at the majority of books they haven't moved off that number (Sports Interaction has this game as a Pick 'Em). The total hit the betting boards at 9 and has been steady.
    Betting odds on the 2017 ESPY Awards' biggest and best categories
    With the sports world coming to a standstill during the MLB All-Star break, ESPN takes the time to honor the very best in sports with their annual ESPY Awards. We look at the prop odds for the biggest and best awards up for grabs on July 12.

    Missing in action:

    Arguably the two best players in baseball will not be playing. For the American League, outfielder Mike Trout isn’t scheduled to return from his thumb injury until Friday for the Los Angeles Angels and Clayton Kershaw is ruled out because he pitched on Sunday for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

    Other All-Stars who’ll be sitting out: Starlin Castro, Dallas Keuchel, Yu Darvish, Michael Fulmer and Corey Kluber. Taking their places are; Robinson Cano, Chris Archer, Chris Devenski, Brandon Kintzler, Roberto Osuna, Justin Upton and Alex Wood.

    Starting Lineups:



    Lineup update: American League - Mookie Betts (Red Sox) will start for Upton, Corey Dickerson (Rays) will DH. National League - Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins) will DH.

    Starting Pitchers:

    American League - Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (11-4, 2.75 ERA)

    National League - Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (11-5, 2.10 ERA)


    Trends

    Low Scoring Games

    Normally, high scoring is associated with All-Star Games, but that’s not the case with baseball’s summer showcase. The average total of runs scored in the last 11 MLB All-Star games is just 6.5 and the under is 7-2 in the last nine years.

    It used to be only closers who were comfortable being asked to pitch one inning or even just getting a single out. More and more of today’s managers ask the same for their starting pitchers on short rest in the playoffs.

    Seeing the best stuff from a different pitcher each at bat puts the hitters at a larger disadvantage.

    American League Dominance

    The American League is 16-3-1 in the last 20 MLB All-Star Games. Shout-out to former MLB Commissioner Bud Selig for giving us a push in 2002.

    All-Star Game MVP odds

    Since 1987, there have been only two pitchers named MVP of the All-Star Game (Pedro Martinez 1999, Mariano Rivera 2013). An AL position player has won 12 of the last 16 All-Star Game MVP awards. If you’re looking to pick a winner, it’d probably be wise to look at the AL starting lineup first.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-11-2017 at 01:28 PM.

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