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  1. #1
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    Default CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur. July 13 - Sat., July 15)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, July 13 - Saturday, July 15

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  2. #2
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    CFL Betting Recap - Week 3

    League Betting Notes

    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 3
    -- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 3
    -- Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 3
    -- Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 3
    -- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 3

    Analysis

    Favorites and underdogs split for the first time this season, as two out of four favorites ended up cashing after going 0-8 ATS through the first two Canadian weekends. Road teams continue to go strong, going 3-1 SU/ATS. That's now 9-3 ATS through the first three weekends. Last week, we mentioned this was a trend that was all too familiar in the CFL last season, as road teams finished 16-2-2 ATS in the first five weekends of the 2016 regular season.

    The 'under' is also hitting at a 66.7 percent clip through the first three weekends, going 8-4 through 12 regular season games. It's a trend we also saw last season, with the 'under' 19-8-1 through the first seven weekends in 2016. Defense reigned surpreme again in Week 3, with only the Hamilton (0-2)-Saskatchewan (1-2) game connecting for the 'over' (52) in a 37-20 win by the Roughriders.

    The over has hit in each of Saskatchewan's two home games after an under result on the road in Week 1. Unfortunately for total bettors in Week 4, the Roughriders will be on their bye week. Montreal (1-2) will be in action, however, and they have been a favorite of bettors at the window. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 so far this season.

    Team Betting Notes

    -- The Alouettes have dropped two in a row after a win against the Riders in the opening weekend. Montreal's offense has struggled, averaging just 17.3 points per game (PPG) through three outings. In addition, they have managed an 0-2 ATS mark in two home outings. They'll be back at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in Week 4 when Calgary (2-0-1) comes calling.

    -- Speaking of the Stampeders, they're unbeaten through their first three regular season games. After failing to cover in their home-and-home against Ottawa (0-2-1) the Stamps won and covered in Winnipeg (1-1). Their defense was the talk in Week 3, as they allowed 10 points for an 'under' result after yielding 35.0 PPG in the first two games.

    -- The TigerCats didn't benefit much from their bye in Week 2, as they returned to action and were roughed up in Saskatchewan by a 37-20 score. The TiCats are 0-2 SU/ATS through the first two weeks, both on the road. They'll return home in Week 4.

    -- BC Lions (2-1) will be the first visitor at Tim Hortons Stadium in Hamilton, and the Lions hope the good times continue to roll on the road. They're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS in stops in Toronto (2-1) and Montreal. Also perfect is the 3-0 'under' record for the Lions, as they're allowing just 20.3 PPG through three outings.

    -- The Argonauts pulled off a victory in Canada's capital city, edging the RedBlacks 26-25 in Week 3. Toronto is allowing 22.7 PPG through three games while scoring 24.3 points. That's the reason the 'under' has cashed in all three games with a total set at 54 1/2 or 55 so far.

    -- Edmonton (2-0) will return from their bye looking to add to the woes of the RedBlacks at Commonwealth Stadium. So far the Esks are perfect on the season, and so is the 'under' at 2-0. Ottawa's high-octane offense 31.7 PPG will be a huge test for the Edmonton D.

  3. #3
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    CFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 4


    Thursday, July 13

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    TORONTO (2 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 1) - 7/13/2017, 8:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TORONTO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    TORONTO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in July games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WINNIPEG is 2-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    WINNIPEG is 2-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Friday, July 14

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    CALGARY (2 - 0 - 1) at MONTREAL (1 - 2) - 7/14/2017, 7:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 125-92 ATS (+23.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MONTREAL is 4-0 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    MONTREAL is 2-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    OTTAWA (0 - 2 - 1) at EDMONTON (2 - 0) - 7/14/2017, 10:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    OTTAWA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    EDMONTON is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
    EDMONTON is 3-3 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Saturday, July 15

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    BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 1) at HAMILTON (0 - 2) - 7/15/2017, 7:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-11-2017 at 01:47 PM.

  4. #4
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    CFL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 4


    Toronto (2-1) @ Winnipeg (1-1)— Blue Bombers swept Toronto 34-17/46-29 LY, after losing five of previous six series games. Argonauts are 5-2 in last seven visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Toronto rallied from 12-1 halftime deficit to win 26-25 in Ottawa last week, their first road game of year. Winnipeg was held scoreless in 29-10 home loss to Calgary LW (they led 10-9 at half) in their home opener. Bombers forced five turnovers in splitting two games (+1).

    Calgary (2-0-1) @ Montreal (1-2)— Home team won last seven series games; Stampeders lost last three visits here, by 16-18-9 points. Last six series games stayed under total. Calgary scored 34.3 pts/game in its 2-0-1 start; two of those three games were on road. Four of Stamps’ last five games went over. Alouettes scored 17.3 pts/game in its 1-2 start; they forced only one turnover in three games. Six of last seven Montreal games stayed under the total.

    Ottawa (0-2-1) @ Edmonton (2-0)— Eskimos had last week off, will be out to avenge 35-23 loss at Ottawa in Grey Cup semis last year. RedBlacks were 3-0 vs Edmonton LY, winning in OT here- the wins were by 8-3-12 points. Ottawa blew 12-1 halftime lead LW in 26-25 home loss to Toronto; they were tied at half in their first two games, going 0-1-1 vs Calgary, losing 43-39 in only road game so far. Under is 5-2 in last seven Eskimo games, 8-2 in Ottawa’s last 10 games.

    BC Lions (2-1) @ Hamilton (0-2)— Lions are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning last three, by 27-25-7 points. BC lost three of last four visits here; home side won seven of last eight series games- over is 6-2 in those eight games. Lions are on road for 3rd week in row; they were +19 in second half the last two weeks, wins at Toronto/Montreal. TiCats were outgunned by 287-258 yards in first two games, losses at Toronto (32-15), Saskatchewan (37-20)- this is their home opener.

    Favorites vs spread for season: 4-8
    over/under: 4-8
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-11-2017 at 01:49 PM.

  5. #5
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    CFL

    Week 4


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    Trend Report
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    Thursday, July 13

    8:30 PM
    TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
    Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home
    Winnipeg is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto


    Friday, July 14

    7:00 PM
    CALGARY vs. MONTREAL
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Montreal
    Calgary is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Montreal's last 20 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games

    10:00 PM
    OTTAWA vs. EDMONTON
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games when playing Edmonton
    Edmonton is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa


    Saturday, July 15

    7:30 PM
    BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. HAMILTON
    British Columbia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    British Columbia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Hamilton
    Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    Hamilton is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


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    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-11-2017 at 01:49 PM.

  6. #6
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    CFL
    Dunkel

    Week 4


    Thursday, July 13

    Toronto @ Winnipeg

    Game 371-372
    July 13, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Toronto
    107.638
    Winnipeg
    113.987
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 6 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Winnipeg
    by 3
    54
    Dunkel Pick:
    Winnipeg
    (-3); Under



    Friday, July 14

    Ottawa @ Edmonton

    Game 375-376
    July 14, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    115.557
    Edmonton
    115.418
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Ottawa
    Even
    62
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Edmonton
    by 4
    57 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Ottawa
    (+4); Over

    Calgary @ Montreal


    Game 373-374
    July 14, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Calgary
    121.319
    Montreal
    112.601
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Calgary
    by 8 1/2
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Calgary
    by 4 1/2
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Calgary
    (-4 1/2); Over



    Saturday, July 14

    BC Lions @ Hamilton

    Game 377-378
    July 15, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    BC Lions
    110.944
    Hamilton
    111.532
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Hamilton
    by 1
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    BC Lions
    by 3
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Hamilton
    (+3); Under

  7. #7
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    How long can the Under stay hot for CFL bettors?

    The season, the Over/Under heading into Week 4 is 4-8 with games averaging just 52.9 points scored per game compared to an average Over/Under line of 54.6. This isn’t a one-season trend either.

    The Canadian Football League is known as a pass-happy league with plenty of big plays and high-scoring contests. But that’s not been the case for the first three weeks of the season.

    The season, the Over/Under heading into Week 4 is 4-8 with games averaging just 52.9 points scored per game compared to an average Over/Under line of 54.6. This isn’t a one-season trend either. The Under is 40-19-1 (66 percent win rate) in Weeks 1 to 4 in the CFL since 2014.

    “I think a big part of it is that teams are getting the early-season rust out,” Greg Sindall, an oddsmaker with Canadian-based sportsbook SportsInteraction.com tells Covers. “Players are figuring out how to play with new teammates, learning each other’s tendencies and strengths. And some teams have new coaches, so the players are learning all the new plays and schemes.

    “I expect things will start to even out and we’ll start seeing some higher-scoring games again soon.”

    The pattern seems to break by Week 5. The Over/Under mark in Weeks 5 to 20 last season was 35-29 with the total average of points scored per game at 54.4 while the average total was 53.2 over the same period.

    It may not be the NFL, but there are football odds hitting the board in Las Vegas this week as the CFL kicks off north of the border. We talk to Johnny Avello of the Wynn Las Vegas about all things CFL betting, including Grey Cup futures and the most bet games for Week 1.

    This season, the B.C. Lions, Toronto Argonauts and Montreal Alouettes are a combined 0-9 Over/Under heading into Week 4. The Lions and Argos’ Under success can be credited to both teams' ability to stop opponents from putting up big numbers on the scoreboard. The Als, however, are a different story.

    The average total points scored in Montreal's three games this season is just 38. It averages only 312 yards per game and just 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Montreal possesses the league’s leading rusher in Tyrell Sutton but he didn’t get his first carry until the second quarter against the Lions last week.

    “Let your playmakers make plays. Put the ball in their hands,” Alouettes slotback Nik Lewis told the Montreal Gazette. “If they can’t make the plays, you need new playmakers or something’s got to change.”

    This is a perfect example of what Sindall is talking about, with teams still searching for their identity early into the schedule.

    CFL Week 4 kicks off Thursday night with the Argos visiting the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3, 52.5) while the Alouettes (+5.5) host the Calgary Stampeders on Friday. The total for the Montreal-Calgary game opened at 49.5 but has dropped to 48.5.

  8. #8
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    CFL

    Thursday, July 13


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Thursday's CFL betting preview and odds: Argonauts at Blue Bombers
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols completed 27-of-40 passes for 267 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, including a pick six in the third quarter last week against Calgary.

    Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3, 52.5)

    The Toronto Argonauts look to continue their promising start to the season when they hit the road to take on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday. The Argonauts scored 25 points in the second half en route to a 26-25 victory against the Ottawa Redblacks to move into first place in the East Division, and hope to take another step in the right direction by beating the Blue Bombers for the first time since Nov. 6, 2015.

    Toronto has dropped nine straight games against West Division opponents dating back to last season, including both meetings against Winnipeg in 2016 by an average margin of 17 points. Winnipeg is left to go back to the drawing board following a disheartening 29-10 defeat to the Calgary Stampeders. The Blue Bombers harbored serious hopes of challenging the Stampeders for West Division supremacy, but were shut out in the second half en route to their seventh consecutive loss in the series, and hope to bounce back by downing the Argonauts for the third straight time. "It's not a gloomy feeling around here as we lost a football game to a good team," Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols told reporters. "We're going to come back and we have 16 more of these as it's a long season."

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Bombers opened as three-point home favorites and the total hit the betting boards at 52.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, neither number has moved.

    ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U):
    Ricky Ray threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns to become the sixth player in CFL history to throw for 300 TDs in his career. "I will remember this one a little bit more because it came in a big win," Ray told reporters. "It will be nice when I'm old to think back and remember that was the one where we were able to come back in Ottawa and get to that 300 mark." S.J. Green had a career night as he caught 10 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown while Victor Butler continued his assault on opposing quarterbacks as he recorded three sacks to take his total to a league-leading seven through three games.

    ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U):
    Nichols completed 27-of-40 passes for 267 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, including a pick six in the third quarter that turned the tide in Calgary's favor. Weston Dressler caught six passes for 76 yards against the Stampeders to reach 9,000 receiving yards for his career. Linebacker Ian Wild, who recorded 70 tackles in 12 games last season, left the game with an upper-body injury and is out for the foreseeable future while defensive end Tristan Okpalaugo missed the fourth quarter with an undisclosed knock and is doubtful for the clash against his former team.

    TRENDS:

    * Argonauts are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
    * Blue Bombers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Under is 5-1 in Argonauts last 6 games overall.
    * Over is 5-0 in Blue Bombers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

    CONSENSUS:
    The home favorite Blue Bombers are getting 56 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.

    EXTRA POINTS:

    * Ray leads the CFL in passing yards (1,199).
    * Winnipeg K Justin Medlock has made 24 straight field goals dating back to last season.
    * Blue Bombers DB T.J. Heath tops the league in interceptions (three) after registering a CFL-best seven in 2016.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-13-2017 at 11:15 AM.

  9. #9
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    CFL

    Saturday, July 15


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Saturday's CFL Betting Preview and Odds: Lions at Tiger-Cats
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The BC Lions are 3-point road faves for their Saturday night matchup with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, who are searching for their first win, in their first home game of the season.

    BC Lions at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+3, 51.5)

    The BC Lions look to conclude their Eastern road swing with their third straight win when they tangle with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Saturday. The Lions came from behind to beat the Toronto Argonauts 28-15 on June 30 before downing the Montreal Alouettes 23-16 in Week 3, to notch their eighth consecutive win against East Division opponents, and they hope to continue their dominance by taming the Tiger-Cats for the fourth straight time.

    BC has averaged 37.7 points over the last three meetings with Hamilton and looks for some more offensive fireworks against the Tiger-Cats' mistake-prone secondary. Hamilton is left to pick up the pieces following a disappointing 37-20 setback to the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Tiger-Cats have dropped seven of their last eight regular-season games dating back to last year and they hope to find a cure for an ailing offence that has scored just one touchdown over eight quarters while averaging a CFL-low 237 yards per game. "It starts with me so I have to play better and if the quarterback plays better you win more games," Hamilton quarterback Zach Collaros told reporters. "If you're not executing you're not going to win ball games and I don't care what level you're at you're just not going to win."

    TV:
    7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS

    LINE HISTORY:
    Oddsmakers opened the winless Ti-Cats as 3-point underdogs for their first home game of the season and the line has yet to move off that number. However, we have seen movement when it comes to the total. The Over/Under hit the board at 49.5 and has been bet up two points to sit at the current number of 51.5.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    It should be a beautiful night for football in Hamilton, Ontario, with the forecast calling for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to high 20's around kickoff. There will a crossfield wind of around 11 miles per hour and gusting as high as 15 mph.

    ABOUT THE LIONS (2-1, 2-1 ATS,0-3 O/U):
    Linebacker Solomon Elimimian was named one of the CFL's Top Performers of the Week after making 15 tackles in the win against Montreal, which was one shy of equaling the single-game league record set by Reggie Hunt in 2003. "Solomon is a great player and when your best guys come to work everyday then you've got a great situation," BC coach Wally Buono told reporters. "He knows it's his show and he's embraced the role." Running back Jeremiah Johnson accounted for 102 yards and two touchdowns against the Alouettes to extend his TD streak to three games.

    ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U):
    Defensive back Will Hill was handed a one-game suspension for grabbing an official by the jersey and fined an undisclosed amount for punching an opposing player on the same play during the third quarter of the loss to Saskatchewan. Offensive lineman Mike Filer limped off the field against the Roughriders and did not practice early in the week while linebacker Simoni Lawrence took some reps with the defence after missing a significant portion of last week's loss with a lower-body injury. Defensive back Abdul Kanneh, who was one of Hamilton's high-profile free-agent signings in the offseason, could make his debut after missing the first two games due to injury.

    TRENDS:

    * Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite.
    * Tiger-Cats are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
    * Under is 6-2 in Lions last eight road games.
    * Under is 6-0 in Tiger-Cats last six games as a home underdog.
    * Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 07-15-2017 at 11:09 AM.

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