Friday's Best Bets
July 13, 2017
Week 4 CFL Best Bets
We've hit Week 4 of the 2017 CFL season already and the four games on the card this week are all about cross-country matchups. All four games pit an East team vs a West team, and with only two meetings a year between these foes, there isn't often the same hostility involved in the games as you typically see with rivalry games.
However, there are two games on Friday's double-header that are very attractive from a betting standpoint and it's those two contests that I'm looking to attack this week.
BetLuckys.ag Odds: Calgary (-4.5) vs. Montreal; Total set at 48.5
BetLuckys.ag Best Bet: Montreal +4.5
This game opened up at -5.5 and has already seen some action on the home side and I've got to agree with it. Any concerns of betting into a bad number here should be minimal as Montreal is a very live home dog for the outright win here, and anything over 3 points is still a solid cushion. The Alouettes can ill-afford to drop three in a row after winning a nail-biter in Week 1, although they have faced the best three teams in the West in Weeks 2, 3, and 4.
The good news for Montreal here is the fact that the home team has gone 7-0 SU the last seven times these two organizations have met (9-1 SU last 10), and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in those games. Those contests have typically been low-scoring for those total players out there, but this is all about the side for me.
Aside from those strong trends favoring the home side and the underdog – both Montreal in this case – Calgary is in a rough spot of their own. This will be the third week of travel for the Stampeders and it's not like they've been short trips either. Calgary began the season in Ottawa, went home for the rematch with the Redblacks in Week 2, hopped over to Winnipeg last week, and go as far East as they can in a season with this week's game against Montreal.
Even with it being relatively early on in the year, all that travel is going to catch up to this team eventually, and given that this field in Montreal has been a house of horrors for Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell and his teammates in the past, - Calgary's last three games here have all been SU losses by 9+ points when they were laying -7, -9, and -9.5 - grabbing the points is the way to go.
BetLuckys.ag Odds: Ottawa vs. Edmonton (-3.5); Total set at 57.5
BetLuckys.ag Best Bet: Over 57.5
This is another game that's seen significant line movement already as Edmonton opened up as 6-point favorites at home and have seen plenty of money go against them already. I'm not sure if most of that action is following the narrative of the defending champs from Ottawa being a desperate bunch in search of their first SU victory, but at this current line, there is little to no value in the side. Yet, in terms of the total, this is the highest number for any game on the board this week and I still don't believe it's high enough.
Ottawa couldn't get out of their own way for much of their 2nd half collapse against Toronto last week, but the offense could still move the ball when they were rolling and that shouldn't change here. The Redblacks have averaged 31.6 points/game so far in this young season and thanks to a bad defense behind them on the other side of the ball (33.3 points allowed/game), they are still winless on the year. None of that should change dramatically this week in Edmonton as we should see Ottawa stay true to their early season course as one of the better 'over' teams in the CFL this year.
Finally, we can't forget about the post-bye angle for this game as Edmonton had last week off to rest and prepare. So far this year, teams that have come off a bye week are 2-0 O/U and allowed 38.5 points/game.
Edmonton's defense should be able to bring that average down a bit, but don't be shocked to see them give up 30+ to this desperate Redblacks team and be forced to push the ball up and down the field themselves. The Eskimos are 6-2 O/U after a bye week as an organization themselves the past few years, and with a 10-4 O/U run going as home favorites, we should get 60+ points from these two teams.
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