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Thread: Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 6/11

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    Default Sunday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 6/11

    Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, June 11

    Good Luck on day #161 of 2017!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Phil Steele’s top six teams in college football this season:

    6) Penn State— Have 15 starters back this season.

    5) Oklahoma— Wonder if coaching change will lower their rating?

    4) USC— Last three times they were preseason top 10, they finished 22nd once and out of top 25 twice

    3) Florida State— Play Alabama, Clemson Florida this year; none of them at home.

    2) Ohio State— First two times Urban Meyer lost a bowl game, he won national title the next year. Buckeyes lost their bowl LY.

    1) Alabama— Jump up to #67 in experience this year, after being #126 LY.

    **********

    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

    13) RIP Adam West, 89, TV’s Batman from the late 60’s, one of my favorite TV shows when I was a little kid, maybe my first favorite TV show. Late in his life, West did voiceovers for animated TV shows; Showtime did a special couple years ago on his family’s (successful) efforts to get their dad a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

    Lot of famous actors were guest villains on Batman; the show was great fun. RIP, sir.

    12) I’m in a 16-team dynasty fantasy baseball league, which means you keep your players from year-to-year. Our league is 12 years old; I’ve had Giancarlo Stanton on my team since he was an 18-year old in the Class A Florida State League.

    So I turn the Marlins’ game on Saturday and Ichiro Suzuki is already on first base, Yelich is batting— I figure they gave Stanton the day off, but no, he got drilled on the wrist and has already left the game. This is not good.

    Jose Abreu got drilled on the knee Friday night and left the game— he’s on my squad too. No bueno when your two best hitters are both hurt, though Abreu did come back and played Saturday night.

    11) Which reminds me of a story: I’m coaching a Little League All-Star tournament in Spring Valley, NY, about two hours south of where I live. This is 1995; my team needs to beat the same team twice in one night to win the title- they only had to beat us once to win.

    So the first inning of the first game, one of our batters gets hit; then my pitcher gets hit in the head while batting in the same inning. Kid is lying on the ground; as we’re trying to make sure he is OK, have to tell the 2nd game pitcher to warm up to pitch this game.

    Out of the blue, one of our fans (we’re in the third base dugout) yells out: “Stop throwing at our players!!!” Now this is a game in a foreign environment; the nightcap, if there is one, will be an actual night game under the lights— I don’t need this. Umpires did a good job of keeping most everyone calm.

    Story has a happy ending; we win the first game, the kid who got hit in the head showed lot of guts by pitching (and winning) the second game. We advanced to Maryland for the next round of the tournament, a great example of the players carrying their coach!!!

    10) Clark Griffith and Rockies’ manager Bud Black are only two men in baseball history who won 100+ games as a pitcher, and then 600+ games as a manager. Griffith wound up owning the Washington Senators; he was 237-146 in a career than spanned from 1891-1914.

    9) Cardinals shook up their coaching staff Friday and also DFA’d SS Jhonny Peralta. Apparently the assistant hitting coach was put on a leave of absence; hard to believe their slump is that guy’s fault.

    8) South Florida’s leading scorer Geno Thorpe (15.1 pts/game) will play at Syracuse next season as a graduate transfer. Hope he has some warm clothes.

    7) Rays’ OF Kevin Keirmaier broke his hip on an awkward slide at 1B this week, is on the DL.

    6) Detroit Lions’ LT Taylor Decker tore his labrum, could be out 4-6 months.

    5) Houston Astros have some hard decisions to make; if Dallas Keuchel’s neck injury is serious, then they have to trade for one, probably two starting pitchers. Even if Keuchel comes back, the Houston pitching is shallow- they have a ton of good position players.

    4) Milwaukee Brewers lost their last six extra-inning games.

    3) Quote of the Day, part 2, from ESPN.com and Washington Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo, which refer to the rescheduling of a rained out Nationals-Orioles game to this past Thursday:

    “It rained all day that day (May 11), and the forecast said it would rain until 9:30 or 10. I sat in Buck’s (Showalter) office at 6:30, and we talked about it for 20 minutes. He was 100 percent on-board. He didn’t say anything about not canceling the game.

    Their GM [Dan Duquette] was nowhere to be found for three, four hours. We wanted to play the next day. They refused to play then, so the next [open] day was [Thursday]. They drove 32 miles to get there. We flew 3,000 [expletive] miles, and we beat their [behinds]. So quit your whining. Quit whining.”

    2) College football teams with best turnover ratio last year:
    Washington/Western Michigan, both +18. Ohio State +!5

    Teams wth worst turnover ratio last year:
    Purdue/Southern Miss, both -17, East Carolina/Bowling Green, both -16.

    1) Three college football teams with most returning experience on the offensive line this year:
    San Jose State, Tennessee, Auburn

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    NHL Stanley Cup Final Game 6 Betting Preview: Penguins at Predators

    Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators (-140, 5.5)

    Penguins lead series 3-2

    The Pittsburgh Penguins are poised to make history, bidding to become the first team to win back-to-back Stanley Cups since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997-98. The Penguins will go for the clincher when they visit the Nashville Predators on Sunday night in Game 6 of a best-of-seven series that has been defined by home dominance.

    Captain Sidney Crosby and Co. moved within one win of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup for the third time in nine seasons by demolishing the Predators 6-0 in Game 5, but Pittsburgh has been outscored 9-2 in dropping both matchups at Bridgestone Arena. "Still a lot of work to be done," Crosby acknowledged. "We know we're going to face a desperate team. We've already played two games there and know the atmosphere and know how much they feed off their fans. We've still got a lot of work to do there." So do the Predators, who rebounded from a pair of drubbings to win Games 3 and 4 and must hold serve again in Smashville, where they are 9-1 during the postseason. " ... What happened in Game 5 is gone. We know what we need to do in Game 6," Nashville coach Peter Laviolette said. "We know how we're capable of playing, especially in our building here and look to get ourselves a big win."

    TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC, CBC, Sportsnet, TVAS

    LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Predators as -150 home favorites for Game 6, but they've been bet down slightly to the current number of Predators -140. The total is on the board at 5.5.

    PROBABLE GOALIE MATCHUP: Matt Murray (PIT) vs. Pekka Rinne (NAS)

    Murray - W/L: 6-3, GAA: 1.87, SAVE %: .931
    Rinne - W/L: 14-7, GAA: 2.00, SAVE %: .928

    INJURY REPORT:

    Penguins - D O. Maatta (Probable Sunday, nose), C N. Bonino (Doubtful Sunday, lower body), RW T. Kuhnhackl (Out indefinitely, lower body), D C. Ruhwedel (Out indefinitely, concussion), D K. Letang (Out for season, neck).

    Predators - D R. Ellis (Questionable Sunday, upper body), C R. Johansen (Out for season, thigh), LW K. Fiala (Out for season, leg).

    ABOUT THE PENGUINS: Crosby won the Conn Smythe Trophy a year ago in leading Pittsburgh to the Cup and is lifting his game when it matters most, collecting three assists in Game 5 to give him seven points in the series and 27 in the postseason -- one behind teammate Evgeni Malkin. "I don't know that I've ever been around an athlete -- not just a hockey player but an athlete -- that is as driven as Sid is," Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said. "He sees the opportunity in front of us, and he's doing everything within his power to try to help us be successful." Malkin, the 2009 Conn Smythe winner, is in position to win it twice with a goal and an assist in Game 5 to boost his playoff-leading total.

    ABOUT THE PREDATORS: Veteran netminder Pekka Rinne was yanked for the second time in the series after allowing three goals on nine shots in Game 5 but, like his team, has been superb at Bridgestone Arena, turning aside 50 of 52 shots in Games 3 and 4. "I’m worried about his record now at home, and it’s been outstanding,” Predators captain Mike Fisher said of Rinne. “We gotta focus on that game. We gotta be better for our goaltender, no question. You look at the shots, and they’re even, but it’s scoring chances, quality chances. That’s not our goaltender’s fault.” Center Colton Sissons was cleared to play after receiving a match penalty in Game 5, but has registered only one assist in the past four games.

    TRENDS:

    * Home team is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
    * Penguins 1-4 in their last five road games.
    * Under is 4-0 in Penguins last four after scoring five goals or more in their previous game.
    * Under is 8-2-3 in Predators last 13 home games.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-11-2017 at 10:35 AM.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Sunday, June 11



    Pittsburgh @ Nashville

    Game 11-12
    June 11, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    11.535
    Nashville
    12.453
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Nashville
    by 2
    6
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Nashville
    -135
    5 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Nashville
    (-135); Over





    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, June 11


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    PITTSBURGH (65-28-0-13, 143 pts.) at NASHVILLE (55-35-0-13, 123 pts.) - 6/11/2017, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 31-43 ATS (-23.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 5-12 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.
    NASHVILLE is 23-9 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
    NASHVILLE is 24-6 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    NASHVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when trailing in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.
    NASHVILLE is 243-195 ATS (+467.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
    NASHVILLE is 37-19 ATS (+12.2 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
    NASHVILLE is 35-22 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    NASHVILLE is 27-15 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    PITTSBURGH is 129-83 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 86-51 ATS (+12.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 49-32 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    NASHVILLE is 32-37 ATS (-17.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 7-4 (+2.5 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 7-4-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)

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    NHL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Sunday, June 11


    Home team won first five Finals games, and last eight Nashville-Pittsburgh tilts overall; Penguins are 11-4 in last 15 games with Nashville- six of last eight series games went over. Predators won four of last five home games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Pittsburgh lost last three road games, outscored 11-3. Penguins lost last three visits to Music City, outscored 14-3. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Penguins won Cup LY and in 2009; they’re 4-1 overall in Stanley Cup final series. Nashville is in its first Stanley Cup final. Predators are 4-14 on power play in series; Penguins are 2-22. Pittsburgh wins second Stanley Cup in a row if they win this game.

    Stanley Cup final
    Nashville-Pittsburgh
    Pitt 5-3, -$160, O5.5
    Pitt 4-1, -$140, U5.5
    Nash 5-1, -$150, O5.5
    Nash 4-1, -$135, U5.5
    Pitt 6-0, -$165, O5.5




    NHL

    Sunday, June 11


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    8:00 PM
    PITTSBURGH vs. NASHVILLE
    Pittsburgh is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Nashville
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Nashville
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nashville's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Nashville is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-11-2017 at 10:36 AM.

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    Stanley Cup contenders bounce back big time from shutout losses

    Heading into Game 6 Sunday, there have been 12 NHL contenders coming off a shutout loss in the Stanley Cup final (that wasn’t a series-ending game) and all but two of those teams have rebounded to win the following game.

    Nothing is more demoralizing to a team than failing to register a single goal, especially when that comes in a series as important as the Stanley Cup final.

    The Nashville Predators are licking their wounds after taking a 6-0 beating from the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 5 of the Cup final.

    But if you’re backing the Preds or holding a tasty futures ticket on them to win the Cup, don’t put the catfish in the freezer just yet. On top of the series swinging back to “Smashville” for Game 6 and Nashville priced as a -140 home favorite, NHL contenders coming off a shutout loss in the Stanley Cup final have been betting gold the past 11 postseasons.

    Heading into Game 6 Sunday, there have been 12 NHL contenders coming off a shutout loss in the Stanley Cup final (that wasn’t a series-ending game) and all but two of those teams have rebounded to win the following game.

    This trend does offer great betting value on the team coming off a shutout loss, as NHL betting markets will make a knee-jerk reaction to that previous score. Bettors, impressed with the shutout win, will jump on the other side. We're seeing this type of pattern with Game 6, as Nashville opened -150 and has since been trimmed to -140 with money on the Penguins forcing a significant move of 10 cents as of Saturday afternoon.

    The Predators had been shutout only four times prior to Game 5, going back to the regular season, and bounced back to win the following game in three of those situations. They've also won 20 of their last 28 games coming off an offensive output of two goals or less, including a 5-1 home win in Game 3 following a 4-1 loss at Pittsburgh in Game 2.

    For those betting goal totals, those teams coming off the shutout losses scored an average of 2.83 goals the next game while allowing 1.91 goals against – a combined count of 4.74 goals. Sunday’s Game 6 betting total is set at 5.5 with three of the first five games playing Over the number.

    Here’s a look at those shutouts and the following result (*team coming off shutout loss lost next game):

    2014

    Los Angeles 3, N.Y. Rangers 0 (Game 3)
    N.Y Rangers 2, Los Angeles 1 (Game 4)

    2013

    Boston 2, Chicago 0 (game 3)
    Chicago 6, Boston 5 (Game 4)

    2012

    Los Angeles 4, New Jersey 0 (Game 3)
    New Jersey 3, Los Angeles 1 (Game 4)

    2011

    Vancouver 1, Boston 0 (Game 1)
    Vancouver 3, Boston 2 (Game 2)*
    Boston 4, Vancouver 0 (Game 4)
    Vancouver 1, Boston 0 (Game 5)
    Boston 5, Vancouver 2 (Game 6)

    2009

    Detroit 5, Pittsburgh 0 (Game 5)
    Pittsburgh 2, Detroit 1 (Game 6)

    2008

    Detroit 4, Pittsburgh 0 (Game 1)
    Detroit 3, Pittsburgh 0 (Game 2)*
    Pittsburgh 3, Detroit 2 (Game 3)

    2007

    Anaheim 1, Ottawa 0 (Game 2)
    Ottawa 5, Anaheim 3 (Game 3)

    2006

    Carolina 5, Edmonton 0 (Game 2)
    Edmonton 2, Carolina (Game 3)
    Edmonton 4, Carolina 0 (Game 6)
    Carolina 3, Edmonton 1 (Game 7)
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-11-2017 at 10:37 AM.

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    High-scoring hockey has been followed by Under results in Stanley Cup final

    Going back to the 2011 Stanley Cup final, playing the Under following an Over result is a perfect 9-0 winner. Sunday's Game 6 total is 5.5 goals.

    A wild and crazy Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final produced a total of eight goals – the highest scoring Stanley Cup final game since Game 2 of the 2014 final - and set the tone for what has been an action-packed final series so far.

    Heading into the 2017 final there had been only 20 Stanley Cup final games that had topped the total since the 2005 NHL lockout. So far this year, there have been three: Game 1 (Pittsburgh 5, Nashville 3 - Over 5.5), Game 3 (Nashville 5, Pittsburgh 1 - Over 5.5), and Game 5 (Pittsburgh 6, Nashville 0 - Over 5.5).

    That Game 1 final score of 5-3 set up an interesting angle for total bettors that has since cashed in twice during the 2017 Cup final. Since the lockout, Stanley Cup final games following an Over result are 4-14-1 Over/Under (78 percent Under), with three Over results coming in the deciding game of a series (no following game). Heading into this year's final, the average combined score in those contests following an Over was just 4.3 goals.

    Nashville and Pittsburgh played Under in Game 2 (Pittsburgh 4, Nashville 1 - Under 5.5) and Game 4 (Nashville 4, Pittsburgh 1 - Under 5.5). This trend comes back into play Sunday for Game 6 in Nashville, after the Pens blanked the Predators 6-0 in Game 5 - topping the 5.5-goal total. The Game 6 number is 5.5 with the Under priced at -125.

    In fact, going back to the 2011 Stanley Cup final, playing the Under following an Over has produced a perfect 9-0 streak. And, if you take the 2010 final out of the equation – which saw the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers top the total in five of six games – you get a Over/Under record of 1-13-1 in Cup final games following an Over since 2006.

    Before Game 1, the Penguins entered the Cup final with a 8-9-2 Over/Under record in the NHL playoffs while the Predators posted a 3-7-6 O/U mark in their first three postseason series.

    The Predators are -140 moneyline favorites in Game 6 Sunday.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 06-11-2017 at 10:38 AM.

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