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Thread: Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/15

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    Default Monday's NHL Trends and Indexes - 5/15

    Trends and Indexes

    Monday, May 15

    Good Luck on day #134 of 2017!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    — NASCAR driver Aric Almirola fractured his T5 vertebra in a frightening accident Saturday night. He is out of the hospital now and is back home in North Carolina.

    — Warriors 113, Spurs 111– San Antonio was up 23 when Kawhi Leonard reinjured his left ankle in third quarter- so much for this series.

    — Brewers 11, Mets 9– New York led this game 7-1; got swept in Miller Park.

    — Bronx closer Aroldis Chapman is on the DL with a shoulder problem.

    — RIP former umpire Steve Palermo, whose umpiring career ended in 1991 when he was shot while trying to help a robbery victim in Dallas. He was 67 years old.

    — Marcus Camby graduated from UMass this weekend, 21 years after he led the Minutemen to the Final Four.

    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's List of 13:Coaches in movies I’ve enjoyed watching

    This isn’t a ranking, just a numbered list of coaches in TV/movies that I’ve seen………

    13) Ken Howard, The White Shadow– One of my all-time favorite TV shows, Ken Howard did a great job of portraying Coach Reeves, a former NBA player who becomes a high school coach in Los Angeles. He patterned Coach Reeves after his HS coach; Carver High’s uniforms are even the same colors of the school he went to, Manhasset HS on Long Island.

    12) Gene Hackman, Hoosiers– He wins the state title and gets the girl (Barbara Hershey) in the end, but for the love of God, why didn’t he know enough to give Jimmy Chitwood the ball at the end of games? Even the drunk assistant coach (Dennis Hopper) knew enough to get Jimmy the ball.

    11) Al Pacino, Any Given Sunday– Most people remember the “Life is a Game of Inches” speech before the last game, but what he said to Jamie Foxx at the dinner in his house earlier in the movie “You’re a goddamn QUARTERBACK!!!!” was the better speech, to me. This movie was made in 1999, but the divide between old-school thinking and modern analytics is in play, even back then.

    10) Emilio Estevez, The Mighty Ducks– Mostly a goofy movie, but the underlying theme of a former star player coaching against the guy who coached him was interesting. Having players play catch at practice with raw eggs instead of hockey pucks was a curious coaching technique.

    9) GD Spradlin, One on One– This is an underrated movie and also fairly old now, but Robby Benson was a hot-shot high school basketball star who was mostly in over his head when he went to play college ball at a bigtime school. This movie was filmed at Colorado State, which still plays in the same arena. Coach Smith was played by GD Spradlin, who also played Tom Landry in North Dallas Forty; if he such a great coach, why did he recruit Henry Steele (Benson), a flashy, small guard who couldn’t guard anyone?

    8) Tom Hanks, A League of Their Own– Hanks was a great player who is now a crude drunk who wasn’t healthy enough to be in the service during the war, so he coaches a girls’ baseball team with Madonna and Geena Davis on it. A guy could do worse. When Hanks was a kid (in real life), he was a vendor at the Oakland Coliseum; this was a pretty good movie, but my friend Dennis kills me every time I say that.

    7) Wilford Brimley, The Natural– Pop Fisher is manager of the New York Knights; all he does is complain about bad his team is, but when Roy Hobbs (Robert Redford) shows up to play for the Knights, he won’t give him a chance to play, until Hobbs puts on a prodigious display in batting practice. This movie was filmed in Buffalo, in the stadium where the Bills played before Rich Stadium was built.

    6) Jon Voight, Varsity Blues– Whoever made this movie had a high school coach they really hated; lot of unrealistic behavior by Voight’s character, the legendary football coach Bud Kilmer. He berates players, doesn’t give his best running back the ball near the goal line (the kid cites racist motives for that) and just seems like a miserable human. Eventually the players quit on him, but not before going to a strip club for an all-nighter on the night before a game, like that would ever happen.

    5) JK Simmons, For the Love of the Game– Simmons is manager of the Detroit Tigers whose best pitcher is fading star Billy Chapel (Kevin Costner). Simmons is a Tiger fan in real life– he played the part well. Simmons is a great actor who plays a music teacher in the disturbing movie Whiplash– he pushes his students unmercifully, trying to get them to reach their potential.

    4) Nick Nolte, Blue Chips– Nolte spent lot of time around Bob Knight’s Indiana teams prepping for this role, so you see lot of Knight’s antics, and the climactic game for Western U is against the Hoosiers (in scenes filmed in a high school gym in Indiana). Nolte gets the role down well; he coaches against Rick Pitino, Knight and George Raveling in games, recruits against Jerry Tarkanian and Jim Boeheim.

    3) James Gammon, Major League– Mr Gammon passed away seven years ago; he had such a great voice that one of the truck companies still uses his voice for their commercials. He plays Lou Brown, manager of the Cleveland Indians, who leads a rag-tag bunch of players to the AL pennant. He later wound up as Don Johnson’s father in the TV series Nash Bridges.

    2) Gabe Kaplan, Fast Break– I love this movie. Kaplan is the manager of a New York City deli who takes a chance and becomes the coach at obscure college in Nevada; he doesn’t get a big contract ($60 for every win) until he beats Nevada State– he has to beat the Nevada State coach in pool just to get them on their schedule. Cadwallader University– Bernard King was one of his players, another player turned out to be a girl. This movie should be on TV somewhere (NBA Network?) every now and then.

    1) Billy Bob Thornton, Friday Night Lights– I think this is the best representation of a coach I’ve ever seen on TV or in the movies. The movie is from a book that is based on a true story about Permian HS in west Texas, where high school football is a religion. Thornton has the coach thing down pat; his speeches before a game and at halftime are realistic and not over-the-top. Tremendous acting job.

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    Monday’s Stanley Cup Playoffs betting preview: Senators at Penguins

    "Ottawa defends the scoring area very well, and sometimes the best way to break down coverage is a shot on goal and a rebound goes somewhere and decisions have to be made."

    Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins (-215, 5)

    Senators lead series 1-0

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Bobby Ryan are paying significant dividends in the playoffs after some admittedly lean times during the regular season. After stepping up in the opener of the Eastern Conference final, the Ottawa Senators forwards look to put the reigning Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins on the ropes Monday when the teams reconvene at PPG Paints Arena for Game 2.

    "It's a refresh, I think, for me. I think it was a complete restart," said Ryan, who set up Pageau's series-opening goal before the latter returned the favor on the former's overtime tally at 4:59 to give Ottawa a 2-1 victory Saturday. Ryan was taken to task for his career-worst regular-season point total of 25 (13 goals, 12 assists) before erupting for 11 (five goals, six assists) in the playoffs, with nine of them (four goals, five assists and three game-winning tallies) coming in seven road games. While Pittsburgh saw Evgeni Malkin register his league-leading 19th point with his third-period goal, coach Mike Sullivan insisted his team needs to generate more shots after mustering only 17 at even strength in the series opener. "Ottawa defends the scoring area very well, and sometimes the best way to break down coverage is a shot on goal and a rebound goes somewhere and decisions have to be made," Sullivan said.

    TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network, CBC, TVAS

    LINE HISTORY: The Home team Penguins opened as huge -200 favorites after dropping the opener and that moneyline bumped up to -215 overnight Sunday/Monday. The total hit the board at 5.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Senators - LW V. Stalberg (Questionable, undisclosed), D M. Borowiecki (Out Indefinitely, leg).

    Penguins - D T. Daley (Questionable, lower body), LW C. Hagelin (Questionable, lower body), D K. Letang (Out For Season, neck).

    ABOUT THE SENATORS (53-31-7-4, 37-51 O/U): Pageau's one-timer in the first period Saturday gave the 24-year-old seven of his team-leading eight postseason goals in his last six contests, this on the heels of scoring only 12 while playing in all 82 regular-season games. Pageau set up Ryan's overtime winner to give Ottawa six wins in the extra session, pushing the club one shy of matching the 2002 Carolina Hurricanes and 2003 Anaheim (then-Mighty) Ducks and four behind the 1993 Montreal Canadiens for most during a playoff season. "For the most part, we find that the most fun," Senators forward Kyle Turris said. "Playoffs, it's so much fun. It's a blast. ... I think every kid dreams about playing overtime in the Stanley Cup playoffs."

    ABOUT THE PENGUINS (58-24-8-5, 53-37 O/U): Captain Sidney Crosby is as even-keel as they come, so perhaps it's no surprise that the two-time Hart Trophy winner kept his cool after being kept under wraps in the opener. "There were some good looks there," Crosby said after recording two shots in 23:32 of ice time. "They're not going to give you anything but we worked hard to get our chances and we've got to bury them when we get them." Pittsburgh defensemen Brian Dumoulin and Olli Maatta came under fire for their roles in Ottawa's goals as the former's decision to reverse the puck on a breakout led to Pageau's tally while the latter was beaten on a sprint to the net by Ryan in overtime.

    TRENDS:

    * Senators are 5-1 in their last 6 Conference Finals games.
    * Penguins are 60-21 in their last 81 home games.
    * Under is 4-0 in Senators last 4 Conference Finals games.
    * Under is 5-1 in Penguins last 6 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
    * Senators are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh.

    CONSENSUS: 74 percent of the public is siding with the home chalk Penguins on the moneyline and 68 percent are on the Over.

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    NHL
    Dunkel

    Monday, May 15



    Ottawa @ Pittsburgh

    Game 7-8
    May 15, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Ottawa
    10.212
    Pittsburgh
    13.675
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3 1/2
    4
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    -200
    5
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-200); Under





    NHL
    Long Sheet

    Monday, May 15


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    OTTAWA (53-32-0-10, 116 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (58-24-0-13, 129 pts.) - 5/15/2017, 8:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 122-79 ATS (+219.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    PITTSBURGH is 79-47 ATS (-4.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 53-42 ATS (+98.7 Units) in all games this season.
    OTTAWA is 33-26 ATS (+61.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
    OTTAWA is 29-17 ATS (+50.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    OTTAWA is 17-10 ATS (+29.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
    PITTSBURGH is 99-108 ATS (-32.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 6-4-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-1.1 Units)

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    NHL
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Monday, May 15


    Home side won six of last eight Ottawa-Pittsburgh games, but Senators won Game 1 in OT Saturday, their first win in last five visits to Steel City. Since losing 8-5 in Pittsburgh on Dec 5, Ottawa won three in row against the Penguins: 4-1/2-1/2-1- all those games stayed under the total. Senators are 5-2 on road in playoffs; over is 3-1-2 in their last six games. Pittsburgh is 2-3 in its last five home games. Penguins are 1-15 on power play in last four games vs Ottawa; Senators are 6-14. Penguins scored total of seven goals in their last four games overall.

    Conference finals
    Ottawa-Pittsburgh
    Ottawa 2-1 OT

    Nashville-Anaheim
    Nashville 3-2 OT
    Anaheim 5-3




    NHL

    Monday, May 15


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    8:00 PM
    OTTAWA vs. PITTSBURGH
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    Ottawa is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home


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