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Thread: Reds @ Giants

  1. #1
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    Default Reds @ Giants

    CINCINNATI REDS (Arroyo) @ SF GIANTS (Blach)

    My Projected Lines and the odds
    We can still get Cincinnati at around 2.15, which is still I think too much based on current season performances and also based on my projected odds and winning percentages. I have projected, that San Francisco should be an underdog of more than +200 (3.00) and bookmakers have them at around 1.87 right now. I have projected, that Cincinnati Reds should a favourite of around 1.45m which is pretty big difference and this is qualified as my 4 unit play. So, let’s see if there is any other reason to support my model...

    Match Up
    San Francisco Giants are struggling this season. Even that game yesterday, they should lost, because Mets have couple of chances with runners in scoring position before the end of the game and Giants were trailing whole game. Mets closer lost that game yesterday, Giants just took his bad pitches. But this was just one game and tells us nothing, but if we take their performance this season, they are just 12-23, they score 3.3 runs per game.

    Definitely one of the reasons for this bad results is a lot of important injuries, including Bumgarner, their best pitcher. They are 4-14 against right handed pitchers and they are just 6-8 at home.

    Cincinnati Reds on the other side have even better road record than Giants at home. They are 18-15 to the season, 6-5 on the road and they score 5.2 runs per game. Against lefties (this is what they will face today), score even more (5.8 runs) and when we talk about bullpens, Cincinnati bullpen is very good this season (ERA 3.26) and one of the best on the road (2.20).

    San Francisco bullpen ERA is 4.43 and at home 4.64.

    Cincinnati will start with Bronson Arroyo, who has good record against San Francisco. He is 8-5 lifetime against them with ERA of 2.60. He also won against them in the only game in 2017.

    San Francisco on the other side will start with lefty Blach, who has ERA of 6.00 to the season, but the biggest concer I think is that he doesn’t strike out hitters. He has only 3 strike outs in 15 innings and even more balls (4) than strike outs. He played one game against Cincinnati this season and they hit him hard. In just 3 innings he allowed 11 hits and 10 runs (8 ER).

    Reason for pick
    So, what we have here? We have team with winning record, who won 8 of last 10 games and will start with a pitcher who has good lifetime record against San Francisco. We have a team, that has very good bullpen and we have a team that beat San Francisco couple of days ago in all three games outscoring them by 31-5 in runs. This team is Cincinnati.
    And we have a team, with the worst record in whole MLB. We have a team, that is missing couple of important players and we have a pitcher, who will play for them, who was just badly beaten by Cincinnati.
    And who is the underdog here? Cincinnati. Win or lose, we have a nice value with Cincinnati.

    Play Cincinnati +110

    Good Luck!

  2. #2
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    good luck Chance

  3. #3
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    Good Luck UDC!
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