NY METS (Syndergaard) vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Nola)
My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers have Philadelphia as big underdog here and there is a reason for that, because NY Mets will play with Noah Syndergaard, who is one of the best pitchers in the game right now. We can find Philadelphia at around 2.70 and based on my numbers, they are little bit underrated. I have projected, that Philadelphia should be underdog of around 2.16. In other words, if I play play on Philadelphia, I would expect, that bookmakers will pay me 1.16 units of profit if Philadelphia wins. They pay me more (+0.54 units more) and because of that I have some value with them. Let’s see if there is a reason for that.
NY Mets will start with Noah Syndergaard, ERA 0.95 to the season, 20 strike outs in 19 innings and only 2 earned runs so far. Amazing numbers. He also has very good numbers against Philadelphia hitters as they combine batting average of only 0.185 against him.
Philadelphia on the other side will start with Aaron Nola, who has been very good too. ERA 3.27, 13 strike outs in 11 innings and only 2 walks. He pitched against Washington, who is playing really good right now and he had pretty tough schedule, but he still pitched well and I think if he can continue with the same pitching we can see another very close game.
When we talk about bullpens, Philadelphia is higher ranked bullpen so far this season, but right now but bullpens were shaky so far. Philadelphia ERA 5.18, NY Mets ERA 3.81, but bad whip of 1.571.
Philadelphia scores 4.7 runs per game so far and they score 5.2 runs per game on the road. NY Mets on the other side score 4.5 runs per game and 4.6 runs per game against right handed pitchers. And based on current numbers, Philadelphia is better offensive team so far in 2017. Better batting average and I rank them little bit higher so far in 2017, especially against right handed pitchers.
Reason for pick
So, what we have here? We have very good pitcher with Mets and the odds are set mostly because he is dominant and he also has very good numbers against Philadelphia. But on the other side we also have very good pitcher. Nola's 13 strike outs in just 11 innings against Washington is not bad. Even his skilled interactive ERA is pretty same than Syndergaard number. But the game is not only starting pitching and most bettors underestimate bullpens and hitters. And in this part of the game I don’t see any huge advantage by the Mets. In fact based on my numbers, Philadelphia is little bit better offensive team right now. We can expect, that Syndergaard will go around 6 innings and Familia could be back for the Mets, but if Nola can pitch like he did in first two games, I think the game could be decided in last 2-3 innings and I think both teams can win. I still have projected, that Mets have 53.7% of chance in this game, but this is still much less, what bookmakers think. Because of that I think we have a value with Philadelphia and i think that they can win this at the end. Note also, that majority of bettors will be on NY Mets too. If you like to play small on underdogs and if you like to go against the public, then Philadelphia is my recommendation.
Last Baseball Picks: 1-5, -555.75
Record: 28-50-4, -€1,776 Yield: -22.77%
Game MLB - Detroit (Norris) @ Tampa Bay (Ramirez)
Bet #83 Over 8 @1.833
Risk 165€ (2.01% of current bankroll)
Game MLB - Philadelphia (Nola) @ NY Mets (Syndergaard)
Bet #84 Philadelphia (Nola) @2.719
Risk 120€ (1.46% of current bankroll)
Game MLB - Baltimore (Miley) @ Cincinnati (Feldman)
Bet #85 Cincinnati (Feldman) @2.13
Risk 180€ (2.19% of current bankroll)
Game MLB - St Louis (Martinez) @ Milwaukee (Davies)
Bet #86 Milwaukee (Davies) @2.1
Risk 200€ (2.43% of current bankroll)
Game MLB - Arizona (Corbin) @ San Diego (Richard)
Bet #87 San Diego (Richard) @2.1
Risk 120€ (1.46% of current bankroll)
My Projected lines:
Tampa Bay -141
Los Angeles 323
New York -116
Kansas City 119
St Louis 168
San Diego -124