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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
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    Default Phillies @ NY Mets

    NY METS (Syndergaard) vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Nola)


    My Projected Lines and the odds
    Bookmakers have Philadelphia as big underdog here and there is a reason for that, because NY Mets will play with Noah Syndergaard, who is one of the best pitchers in the game right now. We can find Philadelphia at around 2.70 and based on my numbers, they are little bit underrated. I have projected, that Philadelphia should be underdog of around 2.16. In other words, if I play play on Philadelphia, I would expect, that bookmakers will pay me 1.16 units of profit if Philadelphia wins. They pay me more (+0.54 units more) and because of that I have some value with them. Let’s see if there is a reason for that.


    Match Up
    NY Mets will start with Noah Syndergaard, ERA 0.95 to the season, 20 strike outs in 19 innings and only 2 earned runs so far. Amazing numbers. He also has very good numbers against Philadelphia hitters as they combine batting average of only 0.185 against him.


    Philadelphia on the other side will start with Aaron Nola, who has been very good too. ERA 3.27, 13 strike outs in 11 innings and only 2 walks. He pitched against Washington, who is playing really good right now and he had pretty tough schedule, but he still pitched well and I think if he can continue with the same pitching we can see another very close game.


    When we talk about bullpens, Philadelphia is higher ranked bullpen so far this season, but right now but bullpens were shaky so far. Philadelphia ERA 5.18, NY Mets ERA 3.81, but bad whip of 1.571.


    Philadelphia scores 4.7 runs per game so far and they score 5.2 runs per game on the road. NY Mets on the other side score 4.5 runs per game and 4.6 runs per game against right handed pitchers. And based on current numbers, Philadelphia is better offensive team so far in 2017. Better batting average and I rank them little bit higher so far in 2017, especially against right handed pitchers.


    Reason for pick
    So, what we have here? We have very good pitcher with Mets and the odds are set mostly because he is dominant and he also has very good numbers against Philadelphia. But on the other side we also have very good pitcher. Nola's 13 strike outs in just 11 innings against Washington is not bad. Even his skilled interactive ERA is pretty same than Syndergaard number. But the game is not only starting pitching and most bettors underestimate bullpens and hitters. And in this part of the game I don’t see any huge advantage by the Mets. In fact based on my numbers, Philadelphia is little bit better offensive team right now. We can expect, that Syndergaard will go around 6 innings and Familia could be back for the Mets, but if Nola can pitch like he did in first two games, I think the game could be decided in last 2-3 innings and I think both teams can win. I still have projected, that Mets have 53.7% of chance in this game, but this is still much less, what bookmakers think. Because of that I think we have a value with Philadelphia and i think that they can win this at the end. Note also, that majority of bettors will be on NY Mets too. If you like to play small on underdogs and if you like to go against the public, then Philadelphia is my recommendation.

    Play Philadelphia
    --------------------------------

    Last Baseball Picks: 1-5, -555.75

    Record: 28-50-4, -€1,776 Yield: -22.77%
    ------------
    20/4/2017
    Game MLB - Detroit (Norris) @ Tampa Bay (Ramirez)
    Bet #83 Over 8 @1.833
    Risk 165€ (2.01% of current bankroll)
    ---
    Game MLB - Philadelphia (Nola) @ NY Mets (Syndergaard)
    Bet #84 Philadelphia (Nola) @2.719
    Risk 120€ (1.46% of current bankroll)
    ---
    Game MLB - Baltimore (Miley) @ Cincinnati (Feldman)
    Bet #85 Cincinnati (Feldman) @2.13
    Risk 180€ (2.19% of current bankroll)
    ---
    Game MLB - St Louis (Martinez) @ Milwaukee (Davies)
    Bet #86 Milwaukee (Davies) @2.1
    Risk 200€ (2.43% of current bankroll)
    ---
    Game MLB - Arizona (Corbin) @ San Diego (Richard)
    Bet #87 San Diego (Richard) @2.1
    Risk 120€ (1.46% of current bankroll)
    ------------
    My Projected lines:

    Boston -218
    Toronto 218

    Detroit 141
    Tampa Bay -141

    Los Angeles 323
    Houston -323

    Philadelphia 116
    New York -116

    Baltimore 144
    Cincinnati -144

    Washington -191
    Atlanta 191

    Kansas City 119
    Texas -119

    St Louis 168
    Milwaukee -168

    Arizona 124
    San Diego -124

    Seattle -116
    Oakland 116

    Cleveland -120
    Minnesota 120

    Good Luck!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Green Bay,WI
    Posts
    24,290
    Credits
    8,941

    Default

    nice write up,good luck Chance

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