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  1. #1
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    Default BOWL SYSTEMS THAT KICKED ASS 3 OF THE LAST 4 YEARs

    These did well for three yrs in a row and fell off dramatically last year


    decided to post them again because i was asked by a few members to do so



    ** caution / disclaimer ** :

    Systems change each and every year

    vegas is very aware of these systems and ajusts accordingly

    use this only as a tool to our own handicapping - not a bible


    last years results do not guarentee the same results this year !!!
    Last edited by GOLDENGREEK; 12-17-2010 at 05:09 PM.

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    Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System

    2007: 33-14 ATS
    2008: 29-12 ATS
    2009: 28-23 ATS



    BROKEN DOWN BY SYSTEM:


    2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

    THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH

    2007: 2-3 ATS
    2008: 2-5 ATS
    2009: 4-4-1 ATS


    2010:

    UTEP + 11.5
    ??....SYRACUSE PK ( OPENED AS A 3 POINT DOG )
    NOTRE DAME + 3
    NORTHWESTERN + 9.5
    PENN ST + 7.5
    FLORIDA ST + 3


    3 Units and 5 Units
    Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
    If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:



    2007: 19-7 ATS
    2008: 12- 3 ATS
    2009: 8-5 ATS


    2010:

    3 UNITS FRESNO ST + 1.5
    3 UNITS UTAH + 17
    3 UNITS FLOR INTER + 1.5
    3 UNITS GTECH + 3
    3 UNITS NC ST + 3
    3 UNITS IOWA + 3
    3 UNITS ECAR + 7
    3 UNITS ILLINOIS + 1.5
    3 UNITS ARIZONA + 5
    3 UNITS TENN + 3
    3 UNITS WASH + 14
    3 UNITS MICH + 4.5
    3 UNITS WISKY + 2
    3 UNITS UCONN + 17
    3 UNITS ARK + 3.5
    3 UNITS MIDDLE TENN + 1
    3 UNITS TEX A & M + 1
    3 UNITS KENTUCKY + 3
    3 UNITS BC + 9.5




    5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units


    2007: 10-2
    2008: 8-1 OR 8-2
    2009: 6-3


    2010:

    ???? 5 UNITS TROY ON THE MONEYLINE ( OPENED AS A PICK )
    5 UNITS LOUIVILLE ON THE MONEYLINE
    5 UNITS CLEMSON ON THE MONEYLINE
    5 UNITS GEORGIA ON THE MONEYLINE
    5 UNITS ALABAMA ON THE MONEYLINE
    5 UNITS SD ST ON THE MONEYLINE


    Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

    2007: 3-2 ATS
    2008: 5-3 ATS
    2009: 6-3 ATS


    2010:

    UTAH + 17
    FLOR ST + 3
    UCONN + 17
    WISKY + 2
    V TECH + 3
    ARKANSAS + 3.5
    TEX A & M + 1
    OREGON + 2.5



    Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams


    2007: 3-0 ATS
    2008: 1-1 ATS
    2009: 2-3 ATS

    2010:

    ALABAMA -10



    A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:

    2007: 6-0 ATS
    2008: 2-0 ATS
    2009: 1-3 ATS


    2010:

    BOSTON COLLEGE + 9.5
    IOWA + 3
    ARIZONA + 5
    WASH + 14
    MICHIGAN + 5
    NC ST + 3
    TULSA + 10.5



    A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team


    2007: 1-1 ATS
    2008: 2-0 ATS
    2009: 1-2 ATS

    2010:

    GEORGIA - 6.5


    Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year


    2008: 6-2 ATS
    2009: 6-7 ATS
    2010:

  3. #3
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    RUNNING DOG SYSTEM

    STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

    I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. ( 2007 ) We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams OVERALL in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog


    2007: 10-4 ATS
    2008: 9-5 ATS
    2009: 7-4 ATS

    2010:

    Ohio +1.5
    Navy +5
    FIU +1.5
    Ga Tech +3
    Iowa +1
    Illinois +1.5
    Syracuse +1
    UCONN +17
    MTSU +1.5
    Texas A&M +1.5


    Notre Dame, Michigan St, & Michigan's run numbers are very close to Miami, Alabama & Miss. St.




    .

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    BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS


    BOWL SYSTEM

    BETTING AGAINST THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
    One of the easiest bowl systems around, is to go against the
    team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Here are the results from the last 35 games in which the Heisman Winner played.

    HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
    1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6˝ WINNER
    1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
    1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3˝ Loser
    1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6˝ WINNER
    1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
    1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7˝ WINNER
    1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
    1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
    1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
    1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11˝ WINNER
    1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
    1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2˝ WINNER
    1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
    1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4˝ WINNER
    1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2˝ Loser
    1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
    1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
    1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6˝ WINNER
    1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
    1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15˝ WINNER
    1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7˝ Loser
    1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
    1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3˝ Loser
    1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
    1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6˝ Loser
    1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13˝ WINNER
    2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
    2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8˝ WINNER
    2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
    2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5˝ WINNER
    2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
    2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
    2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
    2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10˝ WINNER
    2008 FLORIDA 24 - Oklahoma (Sam Bradford) 14 +5 WINNER
    2009 ALABAMA 37 ( Mark Ingram)- TEXAS 21 - 4 LOSER

    RESULT: 25-9-1: 73.5% VS SPREAD


    TAKE OREGON + 2.5

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    Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

    2009-10 record: 5-2: Wyoming +10 (W), Marshall +3 (W), North Carolina +1 (L), Air Force +4.5 (W) Stanford +10 (W), Florida State +3 (W), Michigan State +9.5 (L)
    Historical record: 70-36-2 (66%) since 1997; Z-factor 3.3
    Current 2010-11 qualifiers:

    Fresno State +1
    Ohio +2.5
    Utah +17
    Navy +4.5
    Georgia Tech +3
    NC State +3
    Illinois +1
    Arizona +5
    Kansas State +1
    Washington +14
    Notre Dame +3
    Wisconsin +2.5
    Arkansas +3.5
    Texas A&M +1
    Boston College +9.5

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    Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls
    2009-010 record: 3-1: Wyoming +10 (W), SMU +11 (W), BC +7.5 (L), Stanford +10 (W)

    Historical record: 57-28-3 (67%) since 1983; Z-factor 3.1
    Current 2010-11 qualifiers:

    UTEP +11.5
    Utah +17
    Tulsa +10
    East Carolina +7.5*** WATCH THIS LINE
    Army +8
    Washington +14

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    Sys #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 49-24 ATS L9 yrs

    East Carolina +7.5
    Arizona +5.5
    Army +7
    USF +4
    UcF +7




    Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS



    None



    Sys #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 17-2 ATS


    Unknown



    Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10

    None



    Sys #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 14-0 SU,ATS

    San Diego State -3
    TCU -3
    AUBURN -3



    Sys #6 - Play Against FAVS of more than 6pts that won its last bowl gm, and not off 4 favored Wins vs opp not off conf RF SU win,ats Loss. 1-22 ATS

    PLAY AGAINST:

    Oklahoma -17
    BYU
    BOISE
    MARYLAND
    NEB
    T.TECH
    FLOR
    ALA





    Sys #7 - From 12/22 on, Play Against FAVS of 1.5 to 8.5pts, w/less than 43 days of rest off 3 wins and not an ATS loss of 8+pts in last gm vs opp not off shut-out W. 1-20 ATS


    PLAY AGAINST:


    AF
    WV
    TCU
    STAN
    OHIO ST
    Mia OH
    NEV
    AUB



    Sys #8 - Play Against FAVS w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins. 0-15 ATS

    Couldn't find any




    Sys # 9 - Play On Big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs Big 12 opp not off conf RF su,ats Win of more than 6pts. 17-1 ATS

    Illinois +3
    Northwestern + 9.5
    IOWA +3




    Sys #10- Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 13-37

    UNDERS:

    UTEP-BYU
    No. Illinois-Fresno State
    Ohio-Troy
    Utah-Boise State
    Navy-San Diego State
    Tulsa-Hawaii
    Florida Int.-Toledo
    Army-SMU
    Middle Tennessee-Miami (OH)

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    Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

    1) Favs of 3.5< pts are 18-3 SU, 17-4 ATS ( 2-1 IN 2009)


    2010:

    LOUISVILLE - 3
    TROY - 3
    N.ILL - 1.5



    2) Totals of 63.5> pts are 12-3 OVER (avg score 82 ppg) ( 0-1 IN 2009)

    2010:

    OVER TULSA / HAWAII






    Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

    1) DD dogs are 17-3 ATS L20 ( 1-0 IN 2009 )

    2010:

    WASH + 14



    Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

    1) Favs are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS L11 in LOWER TIER Bowl games



    2) MAC teams are 1-8-2 ATS L11 ( 0-3-2 IN 2009 )

    2010:

    FRESNO + 1.5
    TROY - 3
    FLORIDA INTER + 1.5
    MIDDLE TENN ST + 1

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    Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year

    ** THOSE RECORDS ABOVE ARE PRIOR TO LAST YEARS RESULTS

    2008: 5-4 ATS
    2009: 5-2 ATS



    2010:

    Mid Tenn St. *
    Utah
    Wisconsin
    Navy *
    Virginia Tech
    Florida St. *
    Penn St.
    South Florida
    UCONN
    Arkansas
    Iowa *

    * denotes a team playing a team that won 8 or less games last year

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    Play on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.

    Since 1996.....5-0 100%
    PLAY ON: UTAH

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    PLAY AGAINST: Any bowl favorite that has covered in three consecutive games

    58-36-1, 61.7% since 1980


    PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii, West Virginia, Nevada,Auburn,
    PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa, NC State, BC, Oregon



    Tighten It: Any Double-Digit Favorite 9-3, 75.0% since 1988

    PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii,
    PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa

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    *** from here on down ..its just bowl trends ********

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    Stats Matter - A Guide to Handicapping the Bowl Games
    by Marc Lawrence on 12/14/2010 7:05 AM
    By Marc Lawrence

    Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing - preparation is the key to success. The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.

    With the 2010 College Bowl season now upon us it's time to get ready for the thirty-five games that await. While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist one simple element is often overlooked and that is how teams are or have been performing on the playing field ‘In The Stats' (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game.

    As handicappers we know better than most that the scoreboard does not tell the entire story. Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray it's vitally important to look inside the patient before rendering a diagnosis.

    Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall or most recently this season...

    Air Force - 11-1 ITS this season

    Alabama - 11-1 ITS this season

    Arizona - 10-2 ITS this season

    Arkansas - 9-2-1 ITS this season

    Army - 0-4 ITS L4 games season

    Auburn - 12-1 ITS this season

    Baylor - 1-3 ITS L4 games season

    Boise State - 11-1 ITS this season

    Boston College - 5-1 ITS L6 games season

    BYU - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

    Central Florida - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

    Clemson - 4-7 ITS this season

    Connecticut - 1-6 ITS L7 games season

    East Carolina -1-4 ITS L5 games season

    Florida - held 4 foes season low yards

    Florida International - 8-4 ITS this season

    Florida State - 1-4 ITS L5 games season

    Fresno State - 11-1 ITS this season

    Georgia - 1-4 ITS L5 games season

    Georgia Tech - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

    Hawaii - 11-2 ITS this season

    Illinois - held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards

    Iowa - 0-3 ITS L3 games season

    Kansas State - 0-6 ITS L6 games season

    Kentucky - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

    LSU -held 3 foes season low yards

    Louisville - 8-4 ITS this season

    Maryland - 5-7 ITS this season

    Miami Fla - 7-0 ITS L7 games season

    Miami Oh - 5-0 ITS L5 games season

    Michigan - allowed 4 teams season high yards

    Michigan State - 10-2 ITS this season

    Mid Tennessee State - 2-6 ITS L8 games season

    Mississippi State - 3-3 ITS L6 games season

    Missouri - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

    Navy - 4-5 ITS L9 games season

    Nebraska - held 6 foes 1-2 season low yards

    Nevada - 10-3 ITS this season

    North Carolina - 8-4 ITS this season

    NC State - 3-3 ITS L6 games season

    Northern Illinois - 10-3 ITS this season

    Northwestern - 1-3 ITS L4 games season

    Notre Dame - 4-2 ITS L6 games season

    Ohio State - held 10 foes 1-2 season low yards

    Ohio U - 4-8 ITS this season

    Oklahoma - held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards

    Oklahoma State - 9-3 ITS this season

    Oregon - 11-1 ITS this season

    Penn State - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

    Pittsburgh - 9-0 ITS L9 games season

    San Diego State - 5-1 ITS L6 games season

    SMU - 8-1 ITS L9 games season

    South Carolina - 8-4 ITS this season

    South Florida - 2-6 ITS L8 games season

    Southern Miss - 9-3 ITS this season

    Stanford - 10-2 ITS this season

    Syracuse - 1-6 ITS L7 games season

    TCU - 12-0 ITS this season

    Tennessee - 4-0 ITS L4 games season

    Texas A&M - 9-3 ITS this season

    Texas El Paso - 1-5 ITS L6 games season

    Texas Tech - allowed 3 teams season high yards

    Toledo - 4-2 ITS L6 games season

    Troy - 8-4 ITS this season

    Tulsa - 9-3 ITS this season

    Utah - 9-3 ITS this season

    Virginia Tech - held 5 foes season low yards

    Washington - 3-0 ITS L3 games season

    West Virginia - held 6 foes 1-2 low yards

    Wisconsin - 10-2 ITS this season

    Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 539-93-10 ATS since 1980, it's crucial to your success when evaluating a team's chance of winning the yardage wars.

    Just another slant on handicapping the Bowl contests. Add it to your arsenal and enjoy the games!

  14. #14
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    NEW MEXICO BOWL:
    UTEP Price: 5-2 SU ATS vs MWC including 3-0 SUATS as dog
    BYU 0-5 SU in bowl games when entering off a loss


    HUMANITARIAN BOWL
    NO ILLINOIS Bowlers off DD loss as DD favs are 4-11 ATS
    FRESNO ST Underdog is 10-0 ATS L10 Bulldogs’ bowl games


    NEW ORLEANS BOWL
    OHIO U 0-4 SU bowl games… Solich: 6-13 SU vs .580 > opp
    TROY Sun Belt bowlers off win 6 > points are 6-2-1 ATS


    Tuesday, December 21
    ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
    LOUISVILLE 2-7 ATS as bowlers, including 1-5 ATS off a win
    SO MISS Fedora: 5-1 ATS vs .666 < opp off SU and ATS win



    Wednesday, December 22
    LAS VEGAS BOWL
    UTAH 11-2 ATS dog with rest… Whittingham: 7-1 dog > 7
    BOISE ST WAC bowlers are 1-6 ATS as DD favorites

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    Best ACC Bowl Trend – 12-1 ATS dogs off SU loss: Fla St, Ga Tech, NC State

    Worst ACC Bowl Trend – 5-10 ATS aft allow < 10 pts last game: Boston College


    Best Big Ten Bowl Trend – 12-3 ATS dogs 6 > pts vs opp off SU loss:
    Michigan St, Penn St

    Worst Big Ten Bowl Trend – 4-12 ATS off DD ATS loss:
    Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern



    Best Big 12 Bowl Trend – 6-1 ATS off loss of more than 28 points:
    Baylor

    Worst Big 12 Bowl Trend – 1-7 ATS favs 6 > pts vs opp off ATS loss:
    Texas Tech



    Best CUSA Bowl Trend – 14-4 ATS off loss 6 > pts: East Carolina

    Worst CUSA Bowl Trend – 1-8 ATS dogs 7 < pts off SUATS win: C Florida


    Best MAC Bowl Trend – 4-1 ATS favs vs opp off SU fav loss: Toledo

    Worst MAC Bowl Trend – 0-7 ATS dogs < 7 pts: Ohio U


    Best MWC Bowl Trend – 6-0 ATS dogs 6 > pts: Utah

    Worst MWC Bowl Trend – 1-4 ATS favs vs > .500 opp: San Diego St, TCU


    Best PAC-10 Bowl Trend – 6-0 ATS as dogs 9 > pts: Washington

    Worst PAC-10 Bowl Trend – 2-7 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SUATS loss: Arizona


    Best SEC Bowl Trend – 9-2 ATS dogs vs opp off SU win: Ark, Kentucky, Tenn

    Worst SEC Bowl Trend – 2-8 ATS favs after scoring 40 > pts: Auburn, Ga


    Best Sun Belt Bowl Trend – 5-1 ATS dogs off SUATS win: Mid Tenn St

    Worst Sun Belt Bowl Trend – 0-2 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SUATS win: FIU


    Best INDEPENDENT Bowl Trend – 8-2 ATS vs opp off ATS loss: Army, N Dame

    Worst INDEPENDENT Bowl Trend – 0-7 ATS vs opp off SU win > 7 pts: Navy

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