Big Under NCAAB
I'm taking under 146 in Fairfield/Siena as my largest play in some time.
Bettors will look at the large total that these two teams created just a few weeks ago, as the teams combined for 154 points, and then see Siena's string of impressive scores in their 14 game win-streak, and be immediately tempted to the other side, but I think this is an ideal "under" spot.
In that contest, both teams combined for a staggering 16 of 32 from 3 point land, seriously besting Siena's average of 5 3 pointers/game, and Fairfield's 5.5/game. The 50% mark was more than 12% higher than these teams typically shoot. This tells me that the total was based largely on a red hot shooting night from both sides, and that the interior defense was good enough to force both teams to take more perimeter shots from outside. Had these two teams shot a more reasonable (but still above average) 40% from 3, this total would have been under tonight's posted number.
It is interesting to note that while Siena averages 145 game as a total, if you take out the lowly teams from their schedule, and just focus on the teams whose record is currently above .500, Siena's totals average just 135/game against the better schools. Similarly, Fairfield's average of 137/game falls to 132.5/game when you only take into account those games played against winning squads.
These are two very good teams, one fighting for conference perfection, and the other fighting to make enough noise to impress the selection committee a month. I think this will be a good fight, and I do NOT expect to see 16 3 pointers magically find the basket in this meeting. On Friday, Fairfield posted an extremely impressive victory over St Peter's... 59-46. I have a feeling it is that sort of defensive mindset that they will bring to Siena tonight, and if so, this total should never be threatened.
Good luck.
FAIRFIELD/SIENA UNDER 146
|
NBA is a joke
Linear Mode
