PDA

View Full Version : A ? For NCAA Hoop Cappers



rwall
01-20-2005, 08:48 AM
I have been betting on college hoops for a couple of years, but this is the first year I feel I have been "handicapping". In the past I would look and pick.
As each night goes by I am in awe at the consistancy of some of the handicappers here.
My question is this: Where or How do you begin your search? Do you use power ratings? Trends? etc. to locate which games seem beatable.
I find myself all over the place, what seems important one day I forget to look at the next.
Thank You in advance. Any help would be greatly appreciate.

rwall
01-20-2005, 01:32 PM
Anyone...
Bueller....Bueller....Frye

BettorsChat
01-20-2005, 01:33 PM
:bump:

maybe someone can give some info here

RJeremy
01-20-2005, 01:57 PM
I first crunch all the numbers...offense, defense, records, home field, avg. scoring, player injuries, coaching, conference, past results of teams playing each other, etc., etc. I also check the Sagarin Ratings sometimes to see if there is major discrepencies in the lines. Then I take the games that I really like and see who the public is on (what % is on each side), and take a long look at line movements and if they make sense or not. I watch line movements VERY CLOSELY. Then I make my final plays out of all those. The line movements are the only thing that might make me change my bet late in the day.

** I also follow SOME trends. Not many and not all the time. For example, unranked home team favored over a ranked away team. Hits around 70% in NCAA Hoops. 5-1 so far this year.

Hope this helps.

rwall
01-20-2005, 03:56 PM
Rj,
Thank you very much for your time and advice.
It is greatly appreciate it.
Keep up the good work.

RJeremy
01-20-2005, 03:57 PM
C'Mon GUYS!!!! Over 150 views and nobody can respond??? That's what this forum is ALL about. Helping out our other members. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has a method of picking games. Help him out here!!!!

aces r wild
01-20-2005, 04:11 PM
I don't post any plays, but i do alot of handicapping and investing on my own night after night. Trends are all i use. I go to www.scoresandodds.com, it will have tonights rotation and you just click on matchup. It'll have everything you need.For example, last night there was a trend for miami oh never losing ats @ e.mich. Line was pk-1, they one by 10. My problem is i bet to many games.

Ace

RJeremy
01-20-2005, 04:17 PM
Aces,

Nothing against you AT ALL! I think trends are the WORST thing in the world to bet on. As I mentioned above I will RARELY take a game soley on a trend. The one I mentioned is one to look out for and even then, its not 100%, so you still have to look closer at the game. Just like 2 weeks ago, I went against that trend and took Alabama, and they won. It's just a starting point, and not to be followed ALL the time.

Here's the problems I have with trends. Someone can come up with a trend on ANY game if they look hard enough. Ex. Since 1975, SEC teams are 77% ats after 2 days off and coming off a road loss of 15 or more points and traveling across 2 time zones. This is made up, but you get my drift. Another problem is, things change from day to day and year to year. It doesn't matter what a team did last year playing in Cincinatti or whatever, it is new players, possibly new coaches, and everything is different. Betting on a game due to factors that happened years ago or because some trend says so will get you hurt BADLY. Each game needs its own consideration and should be treated with such.

Just my $.02.....hope this helps.......and Aces, again no offense to you, thats just my opinion. I've been doing this pretty seriously for over 10 years.

HUNGlikeabear
01-20-2005, 04:24 PM
Just saw this thread.

I suck so you may want to fade this stuff.

A few things (of many) to watch....
-number of games played in a short number of days or multiple road games. These kids have school and partying to do as well as hoops. Too much for a team at times.
-Number of returning starters especially if a team was smoked by another the previous year OR a team dusted another the previous year. If there is a number of returning starters, they remember losing big to a team or they can remember blowing out a team, and take the night off or look ahead.
-Watching the line movement esp when I read something about an impending suspension or injury and there isn't any movement indicating so.
-Quality of the opposition each has played.
-Free throw percentage
-Of course all the stat numbers crap on each team
-I have decided to generally keep my plays to inter conference games or games involving at least one ranked opponent.
-Look at Blakes capping tips
-Stay away from the nibba
-Stay away from injury/suspension games
-You can't cap every conference, try to limit the conferences you cap, unless you are unemployed.
-If you hit a bad stretch, take off a night or a season or two. The action will always be here for you. It has nothing better to do than to serve your beck and call.

HUNGlikeabear
01-20-2005, 04:25 PM
:bump:

maybe someone can give some info here

You looking for a personal invite.

You do own a gambling forum :)

aces r wild
01-20-2005, 04:32 PM
Aces,

Nothing against you AT ALL! I think trends are the WORST thing in the world to bet on. As I mentioned above I will RARELY take a game soley on a trend. The one I mentioned is one to look out for and even then, its not 100%, so you still have to look closer at the game. Just like 2 weeks ago, I went against that trend and took Alabama, and they won. It's just a starting point, and not to be followed ALL the time.

Here's the problems I have with trends. Someone can come up with a trend on ANY game if they look hard enough. Ex. Since 1975, SEC teams are 77% ats after 2 days off and coming off a road loss of 15 or more points and traveling across 2 time zones. This is made up, but you get my drift. Another problem is, things change from day to day and year to year. It doesn't matter what a team did last year playing in Cincinatti or whatever, it is new players, possibly new coaches, and everything is different. Betting on a game due to factors that happened years ago or because some trend says so will get you hurt BADLY. Each game needs its own consideration and should be treated with such.

Just my $.02.....hope this helps.......and Aces, again no offense to you, thats just my opinion. I've been doing this pretty seriously for over 10 years.
RJ,
I do agree with you to an extent. I only play the game if it's an overwhelming trend. Also, you have to recognize how that team is presently. For example, UConn this year versus the last 2 years( losing 3 starters)

aces r wild
01-20-2005, 04:36 PM
Also, there are usually a couple games every night with good line value in the cbb added games.(haven't handicapped anything today yet)

RJeremy
01-20-2005, 04:40 PM
Yea, I agree on the added games and small schools. I take ALOT of small schools, teams that I never even heard of the college before. There is a lot of value in those and IMO the lines aren't as sharp as UNC, MD, G.Tech, Wake, ETC., ETC.

Start to learn and love the smaller conferences. There is a lot of value in them.

HUNGlikeabear
01-20-2005, 04:42 PM
RJ,
I do agree with you to an extent. I only play the game if it's an overwhelming trend. Also, you have to recognize how that team is presently. For example, UConn this year versus the last 2 years( losing 3 starters)

Aces

Another way of looking at trends....

If one trend is 20-0, then loses the night you ride it, it's still 20-1. A nice 20-1 trend that did shit for you by losing it's last time up.

I for one got my nuts "yanked" on Game 7 of the Bo Sox series. The trend involved was something like 230-2. Don't need to tell you it's now 230-3 (and I'm out some large cash).

aces r wild
01-20-2005, 04:45 PM
Hung

Great point

The Dago
01-20-2005, 05:01 PM
I look for line movement , past games played, look at who,s been covering who hasn,t i try to figure out which way the odds maker are trying to get you to lean , alot of times you will see all over the boards and service,s are all picking the same team, and the line moving the other way, to me thats sharp money , those are my favorite plays , also have to watch for teams that played over their heads the prev, game .or under there capability the prev , game , such as north carolina last night , if NC beats Wake the prev, game i think the line would of been 7 to 10 points higher , at clemson , also i think you have to do alot of score watching the hard part is just betting the games that you can pick out like that, the ones were the line just dont make sence , I myself was wondering what system rjeremy was using cause he seems so solid night in and night out , hope this helps . im not the best at putting all my thoughts on paper , good luck to you ,the dago

HUNGlikeabear
01-20-2005, 05:24 PM
Might be the perfect time to pay for this cat's plays and go the other way :flip:

http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/showthread.php?p=266249#post266249


LOL :)

ChuckLazar
01-20-2005, 05:51 PM
I pick a couple games I like and flip a coin!!! After all the figuring out with lines and power ratings, I try going against public. It's about the same thing, 50- 50 chance even when you do all the research.
:) You never know who comes to play on any given night.

warjag
01-20-2005, 06:10 PM
RJeremy:

When you referred to watching the betting line, do you play against where the public, (majority), is playing? For example, if the public side bets are 90% on New England and 10% for Pittsburgh, would you tend to bet agianst the public or New England. Obviously when you watch the betting lines, you look for the movements as well.

Thanks,

Warjag

coburg
01-20-2005, 06:21 PM
RJ,
You said that sometimes you like the trend,bet with a favored home team against a ranked visiting team,would you like Depaul tonight?They are at home and favored by 3 over #25 Marquette.Just wondering.I heard about this trend from another person and wondered if it works.
coburg

phonepole
01-20-2005, 06:27 PM
Warjag...... bad example.... RJ would bet Steelers if 1% or if 99% of the public was on them.... I'll root for Pittsburgh too, i hate the Pats, is it me or is Tom Brady as exciting as chicken broth?

RWall..... excellent question, very informative thread!

RJeremy
01-20-2005, 06:54 PM
warjag,

yes, i would go with the team only getting 10% of the public. i stay away from teams that 90% of the public is on. The public doesn't win. Also if 90% is on New England for example, and the line starts to drop and ends at NE -1, I would POUND the Steelers. 90% of public on one side and the line going the other way!! LOVE IT!! HUGE money is moving that line, which is usually the SMART $$$.


coburg,

yes, that would fit the trend that is 5-1 so far this year.

linemover
01-20-2005, 06:58 PM
i posted some systems that hit very highly for CBB if you follow those systems -you should win money-do a search for my post titled how to win in sports gambling and you will find it

coburg
01-20-2005, 07:21 PM
Yeah Blake,
It was you I got the idea from about betting home unranked favorites.Thanks for that post!Very helpful!

TwoTonTony
01-20-2005, 07:25 PM
Aces,

Nothing against you AT ALL! I think trends are the WORST thing in the world to bet on. As I mentioned above I will RARELY take a game soley on a trend. The one I mentioned is one to look out for and even then, its not 100%, so you still have to look closer at the game. Just like 2 weeks ago, I went against that trend and took Alabama, and they won. It's just a starting point, and not to be followed ALL the time.

Here's the problems I have with trends. Someone can come up with a trend on ANY game if they look hard enough. Ex. Since 1975, SEC teams are 77% ats after 2 days off and coming off a road loss of 15 or more points and traveling across 2 time zones. This is made up, but you get my drift. Another problem is, things change from day to day and year to year. It doesn't matter what a team did last year playing in Cincinatti or whatever, it is new players, possibly new coaches, and everything is different. Betting on a game due to factors that happened years ago or because some trend says so will get you hurt BADLY. Each game needs its own consideration and should be treated with such.

Just my $.02.....hope this helps.......and Aces, again no offense to you, thats just my opinion. I've been doing this pretty seriously for over 10 years.
RJ,

you beat me to the punch....if you go to ******* a case can be made for each team..stats favoring each one and trends......for every one you find for the Pats this weekend i am sure you can find an equal amount for the Steelers as an example......

TwoTonTony
01-20-2005, 07:27 PM
i posted some systems that hit very highly for CBB if you follow those systems -you should win money-do a search for my post titled how to win in sports gambling and you will find it
Blake,

i have been on that one also since you posted it!!!

Thanks Buddy...A TON

rwall
01-20-2005, 07:33 PM
Thank You Everyone!!!
The responses were more than I could have anticipated, in both number and information. It's this type of comradery that makes this the best betting forum.
The bad thing about all this is I have an obsessive personality and will be up all night putting it all together. That's no joke.
I went to Vegas 7 years ago for the first time. Fell in love with Black Jack, came home learned how to count cards and went back 3 months later and have been going back ever since..

THAN YOU Again

P.S. If your interested I will be selling " A winners Guide To Sports Betting " on E-bayfor $59.95, Mention this site for a 5% discount. (That's a Joke)