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FootballFormula
04-02-2004, 01:52 PM
I have received a modest interest in my Winning Baseball Formula wanting to know more. Here's an overview:

I like to do my baseball formula by hand, but it would be easy enough to do a spreadsheet I suppose.

The baseball formula starts with game one for record keeping, but if someone were to get it a week or two into the season, I would recommend starting at that point rather than making it retroactive.

As far as when it kicks in for play, I recommend a team "mature" first; actually, both teams in a given matchup must "mature" first. My definition of "mature" is this:

-Team must have 1 home series, 1 road series, 1 division series, and 1 non-division series under their belt. If a series is only 2 games, that's acceptable.

Each team has Two distinctly different sets of records: Home and Road.

SUB CATEGORIES UNDERNEATH HOME AND ROAD ARE: Division, Non-Division, Vs. Right, Vs. Left, Game One, Game Two Off Win, Game Two Off Loss, and Game Three/Four (3/4same category). I do not look at day/night. These categories are merely for 'tweaking' a team's Home or Road Category.

A team's Win Factor is a +/- points system (weighted) which is accumulated in EACH category and them combined. That gives an ACTION play. Then the starting pitcher's Win Factor is combined with the ACTION number. What I'm looking for are the games with the largest differentials between two team's Win Factors.

Surprisingly, you find extraordinary value in many games. You'll find underdogs with higher win factors. Naturally, the formula will usually side with a -300 fave or something like that; but it will also, sometimes, point to a sizeable dog like +180 or even +220. But most the time it's small to moderate faves like -120 to -160.

The idea is to just key in on the top few games with the widest differentials. Or, you can go with the dogs anyway--even if they're not one of the widest differentials--since the system projects them higher TO ANY DEGREE and you're getting mony back. Those make good parlays to take a shot with.

The Catgories for Pitchers are: All Games. It is then 'tweaked' with Home and Road Sub Categories.

All Categories and Sub-Categories for ACTION have equal parts except Game Two Off Win and Game Two Off Loss. Those categories have double the weight.

I give Pitchers 83% that of the total Final Win Factor Number. In other words, their Win Factor, for better or worse, is weighted at FIVE TIMES THE RATE of all the other categories. Obviously, you don't have to use the Pitchers. You can just do ACTION fairly easily. But using the Pitchers is all the better.

And finally, be prepared to keep records; atleast until you can do a spreadsheet or something. It's not complicated at all, but it is necessary and well worth it. Each day you simply make an addition or subtraction to each team's category depending on whether or not their last game is a win.

Feel free to contact me with any further inquiries you may have...

Sincerely,
David K. Toop
analysis101@hotmail.com
http://spreadreport.tripod.com

Warrior
04-02-2004, 04:47 PM
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WARRIOR!!!!