PDA

View Full Version : Morning Extreme Markets Report for Monday



BettorsChat
01-26-2004, 12:30 PM
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

10:00 AM ET. USDA Weekly Grain Export Inspections Report

10:00 AM ET. Existing Home Sales


Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it
consolidates below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1539.60. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have
turned bearish signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1514.53 would
confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-
degree decline into early-February. The March NASDAQ 100 was down
3.00 pts. at 1530 as of 6:43 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this
morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1135.72. Last
week's rally to a new contract high has opened the door for a test of the
April 2002 high crossing at 1149.90 possibly later today. Stochastics and
the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term
top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1125.13 would confirm that a top has been posted. The
March S&P 500 Index was down 1.20 pts. at 1139 as of 6:46 AM ET.
Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the
day session begins later this morning.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

INTEREST RATES

March bonds were slightly higher overnight due to short covering as
they consolidated some of last Friday's loss, which marked a huge key
reversal down and close below the 10-day moving average crossing at
112-07. Closes below broken resistance marked by December's high
crossing at 111-11 and then the 20-day moving average crossing at 110-
26 would confirm that last Friday's high marked a double top while
opening the door for sideways to lower prices into early-February.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. For the
bulls, March bonds need to close above the 75% retracement level of
last summer's decline crossing at 113-24 to keep this year's rally alive. If
this resistance level were cleared, it would open the door for a possible
test of the reaction high crossing at 114-23 later this winter. Overnight
action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session
begins trading later this morning.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

ENERGY MARKETS

March crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it
consolidates some of last week's rally, which led to a breakout above
minor resistance crossing at 34.70. The door is open for a possible test
of the 75% retracement level of the 2003 decline crossing at 36.46 on
the weekly chart later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging
and are turning bearish again hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average would signal that a
short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test
of this month's low crossing near 32.35.

March heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of last week's rally, which led to a breakout above the
early-January high crossing at 99.85. If March extends this winter's rally
a test of the 62% retracement level of the 2003 decline on the weekly
chart crossing at 106.70 is possible later this winter. However,
stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish hinting that
a top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 95.34 are needed to confirm that a top has been
posted while opening the door for a possible test of this month's low
crossing at 91.20.

March unleaded gas gapped down and was lower in overnight trading
due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally
but remains above the initial support marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 100.44. Multiple closes above 102.80 would open
the door for a test of weekly resistance crossing at 105.68 later this
winter. However, stochastics, the RSI are diverging and are turning
bearish hinting that a top might be in or is near. Closes below last
Thursday's low at 98.50 would increase the odds that a short-term top
has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of this
month's low crossing at 93.50.

March Henry Hub natural gas was lower overnight and is challenging
support marked by the late-December low at 5.70. Closes below 5.70
would open the door for a possible test of broken resistance marked by
November's low crossing at 5.24 later this winter. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX

The March Dollar was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.68. Stochastics and the RSI
have renewed their bullish modes signaling that additional short
covering gains off this month's low are possible. Closes above the 40-
day moving average crossing at 87.97 and then the reaction high
crossing at 88.17 would open the door for a possible test of fib resistance
crossing at 89.86 later this winter. The March Dollar appears to be
completing the b-wave of an a-b-c correction off this month's low. If this
winter's decline resumes, a test of the October 1994 low crossing at
84.95 and then the October 1995 at 83.05 are possible later this winter.
Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day
session trading.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's key
reversal down, which led to a breakout below support marked by the 20-
day moving average. If March extends last Friday's decline, a test of the
40-day moving average crossing at 124.01 is possible later this week.
Closes below the 40-day moving average and the 38% retracement level
of the November-January rally crossing at 122.882 would open the door
for a larger-degree decline this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
resuming their bearish modes signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to
weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March British Pound was higher overnight due to short covering as
it consolidates some of last Friday's loss, which marked a double top and
key reversal down. Closes above 1.8486 would renew this winter's rally
and could lead to a test of monthly resistance marked by the 75%
retracement level of the 1992-2001 decline crossing at 1.8569 later this
winter. However, stochastics and the RSI are resuming their bearish
modes signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.8067 would open
the door for a test of this month's low crossing at 1.7747 later this
winter. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in
early-day session trading.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's
key reversal down and breakout below the 10-day moving average
crossing at .8070. If March extends last Friday's bearish reversal, the 40-
day moving average crossing at .7989 and then the 38% retracement
level of the November-January decline crossing at .7877 are possible
targets. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral as they await
direction from the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to
weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher in overnight trading and is
working on a possible inside day as it consolidates above support
marked by the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally
crossing at .7589. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of January. If the
decline continues, the 75% retracement level crossing at .7525 is the
next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer tone in
early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight due to short covering as
it extends this month's trading range and is poised to test the reaction
high crossing at .9475. Closes above .9475 would renew this winter's
rally and could lead to an eventual test of long-term resistance crossing
at .9716 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9255 are needed to confirm
that a top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to
firmer tone in early-day session trading.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=FOREX

PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS

February gold was lower overnight due to strength in the U.S. Dollar and
is breaking out below the 25% retracement level of the July-January
rally crossing at 410.90. If February extends this month's decline, a test
of the 38% retracement level of the July-January rally crossing at 398.20
is possible later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Overnight action
sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early day session trading.

March silver was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 6.37 and above support marked by the 20-
day moving average crossing at 6.237. Multiple closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 6.237 would confirm that a top has been
posted while opening the door for a larger-degree setback into the end of
January. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term.

March copper was slightly lower in overnight trading as it consolidates
some of last week's rally, which led to a breakout into new contract
highs for the year. If March extends this winter's rally, a test of the 62%
retracement level of the 1989-1999 decline crossing at 118.69 is possible
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish
hinting that additional short-term gains are possible. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 108.23 would confirm that a top has
been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone
in early-day session trading.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on
Friday as it consolidates around last September's high
crossing at 75.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Monday. If March extends this winter's
rally, the 38% retracement level of the 1999-2001 decline on
the weekly chart crossing at 81.04 is the next upside target
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain bullish hinting that additional gains are
possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 71.80 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted.

March cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Friday and
filled yesterday's gap crossing at 1635. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. If
March renews last week's rally, a test of August's high
crossing at 1737 is the next upside target. Closes below
Tuesday's low crossing at 1580 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted while opening the door for a
larger-degree decline into the end of January. Stochastics
and the RSI have turning neutral as it awaits direction from
the market.

March sugar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as
it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at
585 and this winter's downtrend line. Closes above these
resistance levels are needed to confirm a bottom and signal
a short-term trend change has taken place. Closes below last
week's low at 563 would renew the decline off December's
high and set the stage for a test of long-term support
crossing at 551 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI
are turning neutral hinting that a short-term trend change
is taking place.

March cotton closed slightly higher on Friday and the high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on
Monday as a test of the 50% retracement level of last fall's
decline crossing at 76.55 is the next upside target. Closes
below last week's low at 72.30 would confirm a top while
opening the door for a larger-degree setback into the end of
January. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March corn was higher overnight as it extends last week's breakout
above resistance marked by the 62% retracement level of the 2002-03
decline on the weekly March chart crossing at 2.70. If March extends its
rally off December's low, a test of the 75% retracement level of the
2002-03 decline on the weekly March chart crossing at 2.82 is possible
later this week. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish
and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.72 3/4
would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Overnight
action sets the stage for a 1 to 2-cent higher opening when the day
session begins trading later this morning.

March wheat was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's breaking out
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.86 3/4 and below the
previous reaction low at 3.83 1/2. The door is open for a possible test of
the late-December gap crossing at 3.77 3/4 later today. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes above 4.07 would open the door for a possible test of
the contract high crossing at 4.21 1/2 later this winter. Overnight action
sets the stage for a 2 to 3 cent lower opening when the day session
begins later this morning.

March Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Friday and tested gap support
crossing at 3.87. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered
some of today's loss and allowed March to close just above last week's
low crossing at 3.90 3/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Monday. Closes below today's low crossing at 3.87 could
lead to a test of gap support crossing at 3.85 later this month. Stochastics
and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the contract high crossing at 4.16 are
needed to renew last fall's rally.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans were higher in overnight trading due to concerns over
dry weather conditions across portions of Argentina and southern Brazil.
Overnight strength has led to a breakout above long-term resistance
marked by the 50% retracement level of the 1973-1999 decline crossing
at 8.45 3/4. Closes above this resistance level and then the previous
reaction high crossing at 8.48 1/2 would open the door for a test of the
1997 high on the weekly March soybean chart crossing at 8.62 later this
winter. The daily ADX is bullish and rising, which signals that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last week's low
crossing at 8.21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the
market. Overnight action sets the stage for a 6 to 9 cent higher opening
when the day session begins later this morning.

March soybean meal was higher overnight due to spillover support from
soybeans and dry weather concerns across portions of South America.
Last Friday's test of the August 1983 high crossing at 267 sets the stage
for additional strength into early-February. If this winter's rally
continues, monthly resistance crossing at 285.50 is a potential target
later this winter. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
256.60 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. Stochastics and
the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a $3.20 to $3.60 higher
opening when the day session begins.

March soybean oil was higher overnight due to short covering and is
trading above initial support marked by the 10-day moving average
crossing at 29.54. If this winter's rally resumes, a test of the January
1994 high crossing at 30.75 is possible later this winter. If March
extends its decline off this month's high, a test of gap support crossing at
28.56 is possible in the near future. Closes below the gap crossing at
28.56 would temper the bullish outlook in the market. Stochastics and
the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is
near. Overnight action sets the stage for March bean oil to open 25 to 30
points higher when the day session begins later this morning.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

LIVESTOCK and MEATS

February hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on
Monday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal down.
Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
on Monday. Additional weakness on Monday would increase the
odds that a double top with the early-January high was
posted with Thursday's high. Closes above 56.10 would open
the door for a possible test of the December high crossing
at 57.00 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
bullish but diverging, which is often a precursor to a top
and trend change.

February bellies posted an inside day with a higher close
due to short covering on Friday. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Monday. If February
extends last week's decline, a test of the 75% retracement
level of the August-October rally crossing at 80.41 is
possible later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing
at 84.64 would signal that a low has likely been posted.

February cattle closed near limit down due to profit taking
on Friday while confirming yesterday's downside reversal.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible
near-term. Closes above the 50% retracement level crossing
at 83.06 would open the door for a possible test of the 40-
day moving average crossing at 84.46 later this winter.
Closes below Tuesday's low at 79.30 would temper the near-
term friendly outlook in the market.

March Feeder cattle closed lower due to profit taking on
Friday and below this month's uptrend line and the 10-day
moving average crossing at 84.37. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday, as
additional weakness is possible near-term. Stochastics and
the RSI are bullish but becoming overbought hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes its
rally off December's low, a test of the 50% retracement
level crossing at 87.48 is possible later this month.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

Short Term Trend Direction Forecasts For 43 Commodity Markets.
Projects the next day's highs and lows and whether the market
is expected to make a top or bottom over the next two days
with up to 80% accuracy.
http://www.ino.com/specials/348D8/mkttech/vantagepoint.html