View Full Version : Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/5

04-05-2015, 07:26 AM
Trends and Indexes

Sunday, April 5

Good Luck on day #95 of 2015!

As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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04-05-2015, 07:28 AM
American League East preview: Plenty of value in competitive division <br />
<br />
The American League East is projected to feature one of the tightest division races in baseball in 2015. No fewer than four...

04-05-2015, 07:31 AM

Sunday, April 5

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Game 997-998
April 5, 2015 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis Cardina
(Wainwright) 14.990
Chicago Cubs
(Lester) 15.970
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis Cardina
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(+100); Under

Long Sheet

Sunday, April 5


ST LOUIS (94 - 77) at CHICAGO CUBS (73 - 89) - 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAINWRIGHT is 38-16 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 1387-1553 (-280.6 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 744-726 (-165.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 351-339 (-88.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1330-1466 (-255.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 217-227 (-68.7 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1016-1153 (-213.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

WAINWRIGHT is 11-7 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.08 and a WHIP of 1.288.
His team's record is 17-10 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 11-13. (-3.7 units)

JON LESTER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LESTER is 2-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.19 and a WHIP of 0.882.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)


Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, April 5

Cardinals @ Cubs
Wainwright was 0-1, 6.19 in his last three starts LY; his last win was 8-0 here Sept 22-- three of his last four starts went over total.

Lester is making first NL start, first start for Cubs; he was 1-2, 2.48 in his last four home starts for Oakland LY. Five of his last eight starts stayed under. Cardinals were 21-18 vs lefty starters LY (69-54 vs RHP).

Outfield bleachers are under construction; Cubs have new manager lot of new players. Weather is expected to be OK for this


Sunday, April 5

Trend Report

8:05 PM
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Chi Cubs's last 18 games


04-05-2015, 07:32 AM

Sunday, April 5

A's OF Crisp undergoes elbow surgery

Oakland Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow and could be out six to eight weeks.

Crisp, 35, had two bone chips removed from the elbow on Friday and also underwent a debridement of the back of the elbow to clean up bone spurs, team trainer Nick Paparesta told the San Francisco Chronicle on Saturday.

Crisp will be examined in 10-14 days and a timeline for recovery will be determined. It is typically six to eight weeks.

Crisp was bothered by soreness in his right arm throughout the spring.

The 13-year veteran is in his sixth season with the A's. Last year, he hit .246, stole 19 bases and scored 68 runs.

Mariners put SS Taylor on DL, recall LHP Olson

The Seattle Mariners placed shortstop Chris Taylor on the 15-day disabled list Saturday and recalled left-handed reliever Tyler Olson from Triple-A Tacoma.

The moves put the Mariners at 25 players ahead of their season opener Monday against the Los Angeles Angels in Seattle.

Taylor suffered a broken wrist in mid-March and is expected to be out for most of April.

Olson, 25, allowed no runs and eight hits, with a .178 average, in 12 2/3 innings this spring. He struck out 15 and walked none in 10 games.

Meanwhile, manager Lloyd McClendon said Saturday that right-hander Taijuan Walker will be Seattle's No. 4 starter.

The 22-year-old recorded a 0.67 ERA this spring, giving up two runs and 10 hits in 27 innings over seven starts.

He was promoted ahead of veteran J.A. Happ in the rotation, behind Felix Hernandez, James Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma.

Walker will pitch the Mariners' first road game, Friday in Oakland.

Zito heads to Triple-A

Next stop for Barry Zito: Nashville.

The 36-year-old left-hander threw one scoreless inning Saturday against the San Francisco Giants in an exhibition game and afterward was told he would be assigned to the Oakland Athletics' Triple-A team in Nashville.

Zito could have become a free agent; instead, he agreed to go pitch his way back to the majors and start with the Sounds.

Zito compiled a 4.79 ERA with a 14/5 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings this spring. He had been hoping to win a spot in the Athletics' starting rotation, but when that wasn't a possibility, he vied for a bullpen spot.

Zito hasn't been the same since leaving the Athletics after the 2006 season. During the next seven seasons, all with the Giants, Zito posted a 4.62 ERA in 1,139 1/3 innings.

04-05-2015, 07:32 AM

Sunday, April 5

Game of the Day: Cardinals at Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (+100, 7)

A new season arrives for the revamped Chicago Cubs on Sunday night, but whether it's the proverbial "next year" Cubs fans have been waiting for is yet to be seen. The hopeful Cubs start the 2015 campaign by hosting a St. Louis team that has been the class of the National League Central in recent years.

St. Louis is aiming for its fifth straight trip to the NL Championship Series and its third consecutive division crown. Several members of Chicago's crop of talented, young players have arrived on the North Side, though some — including slugger Kris Bryant — will be coming along later this season, prompting high hopes for a beleaguered fan base. The Cubs' biggest offseason signing also will be on display with ace left-hander Jon Lester making his debut with the club after inking a $155 million deal this offseason. The Cardinals' focus in the offseason was upgrading the offense, which they hope to have done by adding outfielder Jason Heyward, who has eight home runs in 30 career games against the Cubs.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN2

LINE HISTORY: Initially the Cubs opened at +100 at most books before climbing slightly to -105. Ever since it's been back between those two points.

WEATHER FORECAST: Winds are expected to gust upwards of 14 mph blowing towards centerfield. The skies are expected to be partly cloudy with the temperature around 50F to 58F.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (2014: 20-9, 2.38 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Jon Lester (2014: 16-11, 2.46)

Wainwright is coming off the second 20-win season of his career in which he matched his career-high with five complete games and tossed a career-best three shutouts. He made only three starts in the spring because of an abdominal strain but was effective, allowing five earned runs in 14 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old has had mixed results against the Cubs over the years, going 11-7 with a 4.09 ERA, but he has tossed 14 scoreless innings over the past two meetings, winning both.

Chicago's new ace was limited to 8 1/3 innings over three starts in spring training after missing a start because of arm fatigue, so his pitch count will be limited. Lester is coming off a strong 2014 in which he posted a career-best ERA in 32 starts between Boston and Oakland. Lester is pitching in the National League for the first time in his career, but he has fared well against the Senior Circuit, going 15-7 with a 3.06 ERA in 29 career starts in interleague play.


*Cardinals are 54-26 in Wainwrights last 80 starts.
*Over is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings.
*Cardinals have gone under in their past three Opening Day games
*Cubs are 1-4 in their past five Opening Day games


04-05-2015, 07:33 AM

Sunday, April 5

April Good Month, Bad Month Pitchers

Major League Baseball trades places with March Madness as the sports flavor of the month in April. And as we usher in America's favorite pastime, let's open the season with one of our favorite handicapping angles – good month pitchers.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s April list.


Buchholz, Clay • 10-5 (6-3 H)

Boston decided to maximize Buchholz’s early season value by making him their opening day starter. Long on talent and inconsistency, the BoSox right-hander needs to focus and eliminate distractions, which is something he’s struggled with his whole career, except for mostly in April.

Bumgarner, Madison • 11-5 (6-1 A)

When looking at baseball from the start of the season until Halloween, Clayton Kershaw has somebody who can steal his thunder as the game’s best pitcher. His World Series performance was for the ages and he’s never been too bad the start the season either with his array of fastballs, cutters and changeups.

Gonzalez, Gio • 13-4 (8-1 H)

Throughout his career, Gonzalez has started fast and been able to mix and match pitches effectively. Though his velocity was off a little in the second half of last season, his command improved and walks dropped. He’s now arguably the worst starting pitcher in Washington which tells you about their staff. Gonzalez has been money at home throughout his career.

Greinke, Zack • 11-2 (6-1 H)

To borrow from Dos Equis beer, when on the mound, Zack Greinke might be the most interesting man in the world - or at least baseball. The fact is Greinke is just really good at throwing a baseball, has a creative mind and taught himself variations of arm angles and grip pressure and takes great pride in his hitting. Whatever team he has been on, he’s made it almost impossible to bet against him at home.

Guthrie, Jeremy • 10-4 (5-1 H)

Since becoming a starter in 2007, this durable right-hander has thrown at least 175 innings each season (five of the last six 200 or more). For almost any team in baseball Guthrie is the ideal No.4 or 5 starter and his pitch to contact is a perfect match in Kansas City when the defenders are like vacuum cleaners and clean everything up.

*Hammel, Jason • 13-5 (5-1 H)

Middle of the rotation starter who actually wanted to return and pitch for the Cubs, after starting last season at Wrigley before being traded to Oakland. Hammel is not going to overpower hitters, but if he keeps the ball in the yard, he can be effective. In his major league career the 32-year has been a fast starter.

Hudson, Tim • 10-3 (8-0 H)

Hudson will be 40 years old this season, but still throws strikes and coaxes ground balls to get batters out. It would make sense this juncture of his career he would be more effective early in the season compared to later in the year.

Lincecum, Tim • 10-5 (5-2 H)

Lincecum is back in the starting rotation for San Francisco and will remain there as long as he does his job. He spent the off-season working with his dad, who helped design his unusual throwing style. The spring results were mixed, so let’s see if Tiny Tim can hang on to his slot in the rotation with a strong start.

*Lohse, Kyle • 12-4 (6-2 H)

Lohse is yet another hurler who is at his best when at full strength. Milwaukee’s opening day pitcher successfully made the transition from thrower to pitcher and has complete command of the strike zone with his tight mechanics.

Lynn, Lance • 12-3 (8-2 A)

The 6’5 right-hander last season decided to use less of his spotty off-speed pitches and instead focused on getting more movement on his two or four-seam fastballs and lowered his ERA by more than a run to 2.74. Lynn is part of the reason St. Louis seldom gets off to rocky starts.

Miley, Wade • 9-4 (5-2 A)

Miley pitched for a bad Arizona outfit last year and his focus suffered, with career-highs in ERA, hits allowed and balls over the fence. The lefty has a fresh start in Boston with a renovated squad in search of a division pennant.

Nicasio, Juan • 10-5 (6-2 H)

Will start the season in the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen.

Nova, Ivan • 8-4 (5-1 H)

In the midst of returning from Tommy John surgery, no exact timetable is set for Nova’s return.

Peavy, Jake • 10-5 (6-3 H)

Not the hard thrower he used to be, Peavy has to keep the ball down and change speeds more frequently to get batters out. When he settles in groove, can string together a number of quality starts.

*Shields, James • 11-5 (8-3 A)

As reliable and consistent as they come, Shields is an ideal No. 2 or 3 pitcher. Though his famous changeup was not as good as prior years, he found the cutter to be his out pitch in 2014. Should flourish in San Fran.

Zimmermann, Jordan • 10-5 (6-3 H)

Among the finest starters in the National League, Zimmermann in unyielding to opposing hitters in working the strike zone and seldom helps them out in averaging less than two walks per nine innings.


Bedard, Eric • 3-9 (1-4 H)

The Dodgers non-roster pitcher is expected to miss four to six weeks with a strain of the same back muscle that shelved Clayton Kershaw for five weeks last season.

Cahill, Trevor • 4-9 (2-7 A)

Cahill was traded from Arizona to Atlanta on April 3rd. Though only 27 years old, this former 18-game winner has recently been in the minors and a big league starter and reliever and not having much success doing anything well. His problem is being a sinker ball pitcher and lacking command in the strike zone.

Cain, Matt • 4-10 (2-8 A)

The San Francisco workhorse finally gave in to the pain and had elbow surgery and has been slow to recover this spring, still having some “discomfort”. Cain as his record shows is typically a slow starter anyways and could be in worse shape to begin 2015.

Hamels, Cole • 4-8 (1-5 H)

The Phillies lefthander will not be on their roster the entire season as the Phils are waiting for the perfect deal to trade Hamels. His slow starts are mostly attributable to not having a feel for his complete arsenal of pitches in April and performs better when the weather heats up.

*Jackson, Edwin • 4-12 (2-6 H)

The Cubs are stuck with this veteran righty having given him a dumb contract back in 2013. Just think, how many pitchers would still be in the big leagues after 11 years with a career 84-104 record, an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.46?

Volquez, Edinson • 5-11 (1-6 A)

Now with his sixth different team, the 31-year right-hander was 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA with Pittsburgh last year, his best season since 2008 and he signed a two-year free agent deal with Kansas City. His surprising campaign came when Pirates coaches noticed a rushed delivery was elevating his pitches and slowed him down, leading to last season’s results. Will Volquez stay the course or return to old habits?


04-05-2015, 08:55 AM
Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Teams' record in NCAA tournament (since '89) against teams from the Big 14........

13-2-- Duke-- Go for 14th win vs Wisconsin tomorrow night.

8-4-- Kentucky-- Tough way for a great season to end last night.

5-2-- UConn

3-0-- Missouri.........2-0-- Wichita State/Boston College

7-4-- North Carolina/Kansas

3-1-- Arkansas

6-4-- Texas-- Rick Barnes did pretty damn well in Austin.

4-3-- Florida


Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this baseball season

13) Cubs have a new manager, lot of good prospects, a stadium that will be undegoing renovation all season and very high expectations. When will they call 3B prospect Kris Bryant up from AAA? America is watching......

12) Red Sox have a lot of hitting, not so much pitching; will they pull the trigger on a big trade for s starting pitcher? Injury to Christian Vazquez makes it harder to part with catching prospect Swihart.

11) Mets also have high expectations, a manager under pressure to win and a nitwit owner. They're loaded with starting pitching, thin on defense in middle infield. Will they trade Daniel Murphy? Now that New York media has deemed Matt Harvey a combination of Gibson/Koufax, will he stay healthy?

10) Rays-- Gutted by defections of GM Friedman, manager Maddon; could be headed to Montreal to become the Expos. Starting rotation starts season with three of top five guys hurt. Things are not looking up.

9) Giants won World Series in three of last five seasons; kind of odd how they became a power shortly after Barry Bonds retired-- they had a dreadful spring, didn't play well, but its an odd-numbered year, they're not supposed to win.

8) Padres upgraded their roster with Shields-Kemp-Upton; big year for Bud Black, who has to contend now, or else.......

7) Orioles lost Cruz/Markakis, really didn't replace them; they hope Machado and Wieters return fron injury and are more productive. Showalter gives them an edge, but at the end of the day, players win/lose.

6) Oakland A's have three players left who were on squad before 2013 and none of the three (Sogard-Chavez-Scribner) are world beaters- their lineup has been totally turned over, but their piching is still strong. .

5) Diamondbacks-- So much of the Arizona brass are former A's, will be fun to see how they do. Don't think they'll be timid making moves. They must like Archie Bradley if they traded Cahill to make room for him.

4) Alex Rodriguez will get lot of attention as he returns from his exile; can he still hit at a high level? Can he play third? First? They're stuck with him for another three years and $60M, so he better be productive.

3) Cubs aren't the only Chicago team that spent lot of $$$ this winter; White Sox have upgraded the roster, Detroit looks to be a little down, can they win the division? Four of five teams can make a strong case for AL Central title.

2) If Philly gets off to a slow start, will they jump ship and trade Hamels and Utley? They're in decline; Howard's contract is untradeable, they don't have lot of young prospects on way up. Could be a long summer on Broad Street.

1) Hopefully, all this talk about speeding up the game is just lip service to passify lazy media members who whine about length of games; the game is fine, our attention-deficit society is the problem. I'm looking forward to the start of the season; get info every day on my MLB page on this site.