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Udog
10-26-2014, 07:19 AM
Trends and Indexes

Sunday, October 26

Good Luck on day #299 of 2014!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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Udog
10-26-2014, 07:20 AM
Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Vikings, +2.5-- Tampa Bay is coming off a bye.

5) Chiefs, -6.5-- Won a big game in San Diego last week.

4) Saints, -1.5-- New Orleans is struggling, but they are 2-0 at home.

3) Ravens, +1-- No AJ Green for Cincy; Ravens out for revenge.

2) Texans, -2-- Rookie QB Mettenberger starting for Tennessee.

1) Colts, -3-- Pittsburgh has solid record as a home underdog.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 22-20

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Summing up a sports Saturday.......

13) Mississippi State 45, Kentucky 31-- #1-ranked Bulldogs got good challenge at improved Kentucky, which passed for 401 yards, but couldn't handle State's running game. Bulldogs ran for 324 yards, ran a squib kick back for clinching TD with 2:22 to play. No way is Mississippi State the best team in the country.

12) TCU 82, Texas Tech 27-- Tech beat the Horned Frogs the last two years; this is a league game, and TCU scored 82 points!!!! Frogs had 785 yards of offense. Here's a hint for Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury-- recruit defensive players. A lot of them.

11) Arizona State 24, Washington 10-- Game was 10-10 with 4:00 left, but ASU scored twice in last 3:00 to get on the plane happy- they're 4-0 on road. QB Kelly got knocked silly when he threw GW TD pass; Sun Devils got clinching pick-6 with 0:53 left- they host Utah, Notre Dame the next two Saturdays. .

10) Georgia Tech 56, Pitt 28-- Panthers lost five fumbles on their first 13 plays and trailed 28-0 5:16 into the game. No bueno, especially against a team that is content to run the ball for three hours. Tech ran the ball for 465 yards.

9) Michigan State 35, Michigan 11-- Another dismal day for Brady Hoke, whose players planted a stake on Spartan Stadium turf after running onto the field before the game. Michigan State players and their coaches noticed, so when Spartans scored a meaningless TD in game's last minute, that was why.

In case you wondering, the 17-point spread Michigan got in this game was the third-biggest Wolverines had ever gotten in a game-- ever. Michigan got 20+ points in a couple of games in 2008, against Penn State and Ohio State.

8) Nebraska 42, Rutgers 24-- This is my weekly plea for geographic sanity; why are these teams in the same league? Rutgers is in New Jersey, which is, according to Mapquest, 1,297 miles from Lincoln. Apparently TV money drives all this, but it baffles me how taking so many long road trips helps Rutgers win.

7) Giants 11, Royals 4-- KC led 4-2 in middle of 5th inning, but their bullpen got roughed up and World Series is now 2-2. Since 1982, when WS is tied 2-2, team that wins Game 5 has only won series four of 11 times.

6) Marshall 35, FAU 16-- Unbeaten Thundering Herd were down 16-14 at the half in this game, but held Owls scoreless in second half. There was a female official in this game; Maia Chaka, who Mike Pereira thinks will be in the NFL fairly soon.

Pereira is really, really good on TV; he works a lot of games in the studio and gives clear rules explanations for his opinions and he is usually right.

5) Utah 24, USC 21-- Trojans fell to 5-3 when Utah scored with 0:08 left to win; five of USC's eight games were decided by 6 or less points.

Unrelated weather note: It is 2am as I type this-- we just had a thunderstorm here in upstate NY, complete with a brief hailstorm. Weird for this time of year.

4) Kansas State 23, Texas 0-- Why did Texas fire Mack Brown? Longhorns hadn't been shut out since Oklahoma beat them 12-0 in 2004- they look terrible now.

3) UCLA 40, Colorado 37 OT-- Mark my words: two years from now, Colorado is going to be really good. Coach MacIntyre is building a solid program, it just takes lot of time to build a solid football program, unlike basketball.

2) Ohio State 31, Penn State 24 OT--Buckeyes were up 17-0 at half, but threw a pick-6 early in third quarter and wound up surviving in OT, in a game where neither side gained 300 yards. Penn State has now lost its last three games, scoring total of 36 points, not counting the OTs in this one.

1) LSU 10, Ole Miss 7-- This was a fierce throwback-type game where Tigers ran ball for 264 yards, but kept shooting itself in the foot, with a missed FG and couple fumbles in Ole Miss territory. LSU finally drove ball 95 yards on 13 plays to win on a TD with 5:07 left, then survived the Rebels' final drive.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to Coach Miles, whose mom Martha passed away Friday night, at age 92.

Udog
10-26-2014, 07:20 AM
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 26

Shields is 1-2, 5.97 in his last six starts, 3-5, 5.74 in 19 postseason starts. He is 1-1, 3.75 in two starts against the Giants this season.
Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.63 in his last five starts, 6-3, 2.54 in 11 postseason starts; 1-1, 2.40 in two starts against the Royals this season.

Giants won World Series in 2010 and 2012; they're 10-4 this postseason, 6-3 at home- they were down 4-1 in 3rd inning last night, rallied to tie series.

Royals are 16-4 in last 20 games, 10-2 this postseason, with six one-run wins. They've won 12 of last 15 road games.

Shields 24-14......................11-38 first inning
Bumgarner 23-15................10-38 first inning

Since 1982, 11 World Series have been tied 2-2; weird stat is the team that won Game 5 went to win series only four of 11 times.




MLB

Sunday, October 26

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Kansas City is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games


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Udog
10-26-2014, 07:34 AM
MLB
Dunkel

Kansas City at San Francisco
The Royals look to bounce back from yesterday's 11-4 loss and come into today's Game 5 with a 13-1 record in James Shields' last 14 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

Game 909-910: Kansas City at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 13.882; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 12.924
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Under

Udog
10-26-2014, 10:38 AM
MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 26

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KANSAS CITY (99 - 75) at SAN FRANCISCO (98 - 78) - 8:05 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. MADISON BUMGARNER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 98-78 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 210-102 (+46.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 22-11 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 98-78 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1020-852 (+116.6 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 66-48 (+14.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 56-41 (+15.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 44-41 (+6.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUMGARNER is 18-6 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 99-75 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 34-21 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
KANSAS CITY is 52-35 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game this season.
KANSAS CITY is 95-72 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 72-50 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 21-12 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
KANSAS CITY is 53-37 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 26-17 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
SHIELDS is 45-27 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 15-5 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 16-4 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 8-1 (+8.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 16-4 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 14-4 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 10-2 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 8-1 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SHIELDS is 8-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
BUMGARNER is 13-16 (-12.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 5-2 (+3.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
SHIELDS is 1-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.083.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
BUMGARNER is 1-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.40 and a WHIP of 0.733.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.1 units)

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Udog
10-26-2014, 10:47 AM
MLB

Sunday, October 26

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World Series Betting Preview: Royals at Giants
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Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-162, 6.5)

The San Francisco Giants have evened the World Series and will send ace Madison Bumgarner to the mound when they host the Kansas City Royals in Sunday’s Game 5. Bumgarner has allowed just one run over 22 innings of three career World Series starts and perplexed Kansas City hitters while winning Game 1. The Royals will start James Shields, who was shelled in Game 1 as part of a miserable string of postseason performances.

The Giants produced an 11-4 victory in Game 3 as Hunter Pence had three hits and three RBIs while Pablo Sandoval and Joe Panik each drove in two runs. The defeat was only the second this postseason for Kansas City and the players are highly aware that this has become a best-of-three series with only one more game left to be played in San Francisco. “If we win (Sunday), we have the ability to go home and basically win one of two and we’re world champions,” first baseman Eric Hosmer told reporters after Saturday’s game.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened this game with the Giants as -162 faves and a total of 6.5.

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies and wind will blow out to right field at 14 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH James Shields (1-1, 7.11 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (3-1, 1.40)

Shields has had a rough postseason and was shelled for five runs and seven hits in three-plus innings in Game 1. Royals manager Ned Yost refused to get down on Shields and said he continues to think his next outing will be a breakthrough start. “I know his intensity, I know his work ethic, I know his competitiveness,” Yost said at his Saturday press conference. “I know that as much as a lot of you guys think that these guys are lights out perfect every time they go out there, they’re not. They’re human beings.”

Bumgarner held the Royals to one run and three hits in seven innings in Game 1 and has 33 strikeouts against six walks in the postseason. He was considered to pitch on short rest in Game 4 before being held back for Game 5 and said he feels fresh despite the heavy workload. “I feel as good as I’ve felt all year right now, which is fortunate for me,” Bumgarner said in his Saturday press conference. “It usually don’t work out that way but for whatever reason, everything started clicking in the last two months and I’ve been feeling really good.”

TRENDS:

* Royals are 8-0 in their last eight games as a road underdog.
* Royals are 6-0 in Shields' last six Sunday starts.
* Giants are 10-2 in Bumgarner's last 12 starts.
* Royals are 4-1 in their last five games with Wendelstedt behind home plate.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 55.67 percent of bettors are backing the Giants


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Udog
10-26-2014, 10:49 AM
MLB

Sunday, October 26


World Series: 5 things we know entering Game 5

The Giants evened the World Series at two games apiece with an 11-4 victory over the Kansas City Royals in Game 4 on Saturday night at AT&T Park in San Francisco.

Right fielder Hunter Pence had three hits and drove in three runs and second baseman Joe Panik and third baseman Pablo Sandoval each had two hits and two RBIs for the Giants.

Here are five things we know Game 5 going into Sunday night with left-hander Madison Bumgarner starting for the Giants against right-hander James Shields in a rematch of Game 1, won 7-1 by San Francisco.

5. Shields will almost certainly be making his last start for the Royals. The right-hander can become a free agent at the end of the season and figures to land a lucrative contract as the third-best starter on the market after Detroit right-hander Max Scherzer and Oakland left-hander Jon Lester. Shields has gone 1-1 with a 7.11 ERA in four starts this postseason but believes he is ready to live up to his "Big Games James" nickname in his likely swan song after working out some mechanical flaws in his delivery with pitching coach Dave Eiland between starts.

4. Bumgarner will start Game 5 with four days off between starts after manager Bruce Bochy toyed with the idea of pitching the left-hander on short rest in Game 4. Bumgarner, 25, has been outstanding in this postseason, going 3-1 with a 1.41 ERA in five starts. He has also logged 256 innings this year --- 217 1/3 in the regular season and 38 2/3 in the postseason --- but says he is not feeling fatigued. His postseason numbers certainly bear that out and Bochy says the innings total is not a concern to him or pitching coach Dave Righetti.

3. Bochy will stick with his plan of starting right-hander Jake Peavy in Game 6 and right-hander Tim Hudson in a potential Game 7, both at Kansas City. Bochy likes the experience both pitchers bring. The 33-year-old Peavy is a 13-year veteran and Hudson, 39, is in his 16th season. They have taken the two Giants losses in the series, though, as Peavy gave up four runs in five innings in Game 2 and Hudson allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings in Game 3. Right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, who has pitched 12 scoreless postseason innings, will be ready to work in long relief.

2. Bochy will not hesitate to bring Petit into the game early as the journeyman has been outstanding throughout the postseason. That comes after a solid regular season as a swingman when he went 5-5 with a 3.69 ERA in 39 games, including 12 starts. Petit retired 46 straight batters during one stretch in August, breaking the major league record set by left-hander Mark Buerhle in 2009 while pitching for the Chicago White Sox. Some analysts questioned why the Giants did not start Petit in Game 4 rather than right-hander Ryan Vogelsong, who gave up four runs in 2 2/3 innings.

1. The Royals still seemingly have a bit of the upper hand, even if they figure to be the underdogs in Game 5 against Bumgarner. Game 6 and a potential Game 7 will be played at Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Royals didn’t have to burn any of their top relievers in Game 4. Setup men Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland did not pitch. Asked after the game, both Bochy and Royals manager Ned Yost said there is a feeling the World Series is heading for a Game 7 for the first time since 2011.

Udog
10-26-2014, 10:57 AM
MLB
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 26

World Series Best of 7 Series - Game 5 - Tied 2-2

Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants, 8:05 ET
Shields: KANSAS CITY 10-2 SU in playoff games
Bumgarner: 6-11 TSR at home when the total is 6 to 6.5