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The Animal
10-13-2011, 05:40 PM
Guys,

Nobody plays defense in the Pac-12 and it will be proven out again tonight at AT&T Park. The Golden Bears have allowed 74 points in their last two games to Oregon and Washington, both on the road. But what disturbs me even more is the 33 points and 582 total yards of offense they allowed at Colorado. USC QB Matt Barkley and wide receiver Robert Woods should have a field day. Barkley comes off a 32-of-39 performance for a school-record 468 yards 12 days ago against Arizona with four touchdowns. Woods had 14 catches for 255 yards and two scores. USC bombed Cal last year 48-14. USC is averaging 30 points and 454 yards of offense per game this year (4-1). However that Trojan defense can easily be exploited. Arizona QB Nick Foles was 41-of-53 for 425 yards. Arizona scored six touchdowns and erupted for 554 yads on the road against USC. Surprising considering the Wildcats only had 27 points and 440 yards against Oregon State the following week, a performance that ended with the dismissal of Coach Mike Stoops. Cal has plenty of offense to duplicate what Arizona did to gashing the USC defense. The Bears average 34.6 points and 458 yards per game. Zach Maynard has an 11-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He also has a knack for making big plays. Both teams are very vulnerable to the pass with each allowing 10 touchdown passes this season. Plus Cal starting corner Marc Anthony is listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury he suffered last Thursday against Oregon. The Bears only returned five starters this year and are playing three freshmen on defense. Whew! Without question the biggest drop-off we've seen in the USC program under Lane Kiffin is defensively. USC last year allowed 26.7 points per game in Kiffin's 1st season replacing Pete Carroll. Just two years ago Carroll's stop unit allowed 19.8 points a game and that was just a year removed from the Trojans being #1 in the nation in total defense allowing 9.0 points per game. Southern Cal just allowed 41 and 43 points to Arizona and Arizona State in back-to-back games. One would think a schedule that started out with Minnesota, Utah, Syracuse, and Arizona in four of the first five games (all at home) would really lift the Trojans defensively. But USC checks in tonight #61 in total defense, #63 in scoring defense, and #98 versus the pass. Just horrible. But with Barkley, you know they should score points at will. Hard to fathom but the once-mighty Trojan defense has now allowed 32 or more points in seven of their last 10 Pac-12 games. I don't trust either side here with the game price but figure both teams should score points easily. USC 8-1 'OVER' in October the last three years. Found a nice system that is 36-8 'OVER'. That system applies tonight and involves two teams that average 440 or more yards per game including 450 or more in their last two games with the posted total between 56 1/2 and 63. This has occurred 44 times the last 10 years with the 'OVER' hitting 36 of those 44. I found 'OVER' 58 at Betonline.com.

Good luck tonight.
Mark
TheRealAnimal.com